economic impacts of sdls and water for the future peter gooday
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Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the Future Peter Gooday. 22 October 2010. Objectives of the reports. To examine the effect on agriculture and regional economies of The Basin plan (3500 GL option) Water for the Future - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the Future
Peter Gooday
22 October 2010
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Objectives of the reports
• To examine the effect on agriculture and
regional economies of
– The Basin plan (3500 GL option)
– Water for the Future
– Government additional funding commitment to
bridge any remaining gap
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Methodology
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Model Regions
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AusRegion model baseline2001-02
Region GRP Ag. share of Output
$ billion % of GDP %
Northern NSW 15.4 2.0% 17.6
Riverina NSW 11.3 1.5% 26.8
Western NSW 1.5 0.2% 25.2
North East VIC 8.6 1.1% 12.7
North West VIC 10.9 1.4% 17
Queensland MDB 7.9 1.0% 14.5
South Australia MDB 3.3 0.4% 30.9
MDB Total 59 7.8% 18.3
Australia Total 759.2 100.0% 3.6
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Employment in MDB and Australia by sector, 2006
Murray-Darling Basin Australia
Number employed
Proportion of people employed
Proportion of people employed
No. % %
Agriculture 90,520 9.8 2.7
Services to agriculture 5,690 0.6 0.2
Manufacturing 83,760 9.1 11
Electricity, gas and water supply 8,470 0.9 0.8
Retail 128,740 14 14.3
Government administration and defence 94,710 10.3 4.7
Education 71,550 7.8 7.5
Health and community services 97,270 10.6 10.7
Other industries 340,590 37 48.1
Total employed persons 921,300 100 100
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Data & Model Assumptions
• Regional SDL data were provided by MBDA
• Data provided by DSEWPaC included– Original water purchase (WP), average price is $2073/ML
– Infrastructure Investments, average price is $4606/ML
– Infrastructure water savings occur when SDLs are implemented
– Additional WP to bridge the gap to SDLs occurs between now and when SDLs are implemented
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Limitations
• Water supply variability is not investigated
• Analysis provides estimates over large regions,
estimates at finer scale are not available due to
limitations in the models
• Considers only productivity improvement from
increased water use efficiency through infrastructure
investment
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Effects of the Basin Plan and ‘Water for the Future’ water entitlements in the MDB – a conceptual
outlineEnvironmental
water
Consumptive water
SDL
Existing Diversion Limit (the ‘Cap’)
Farmer’s Share
Commonwealth’s Share
Water to be reallocated from consumptive to
environmental use
Gap to be addressed by continued buy-backs
System savings from infrastructure investments on and off farm
Buy-back
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Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture Change in Basin-wide GVIAP
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
Year
% c
ha
ng
e in
GV
IAP
SDLs
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Impacts on Irrigated AgricultureChange in Basin-wide GVIAP
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
Year
% c
ha
ng
e in
GV
IAP
SDLs
SDLS andGovernmentactions
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Economy-wide impactsChange in Gross Regional Product
Scenario: SDLs and Government Actions
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
Year
% c
han
ge
in G
RP MDB
Australia
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% change in GVIAP by regionScenario: SDLs and Government Actions
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
CondamineBorder Rivers (QLD)Border Rivers (NSW)WarregoParooNamoiMacquarieMoonieGwydirBarwon DarlingLachlanMurrumbidgeeOvensGoulburn BrokenCampaspeWimmeraLoddonMurray NSWMurray VICLower MurraySA MurrayEastern Mt Lofty
Re
gio
n
% change in GVIAP
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GVIAP by region
0 200 400 600 800 1000
CondamineBorder Rivers (QLD)Border Rivers (NSW)
WarregoParooNamoi
MacquarieMoonieGwydir
Barwon DarlingLachlan
MurrumbidgeeOvens
Goulburn BrokenCampaspe
WimmeraLoddon
Murray NSWMurray VIC
Lower MurraySA Murray
Eastern Mt Lofty
$ million/year
Baseline SDLs and Government Actions
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Town Level Analysis
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Towns that are highly reliant on irrigation expenditure
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Land Use in Murray & Murrumbidgee
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Land use in Condamine–Balonne, Gwydir & Namoi
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Sensitivity Analysis Reduction in Basin GVIAP, with and without interregional
trade
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Sensitivity AnalysisBasin GVIAP by industry, with interregional trade
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Thank you
Science and economics for decision-makers