economic indicators: august 1977 - st. louis fed...95th congress, 1st session economic indicators...

95th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

August 1977

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1977

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, ChairmanHUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESHENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)OTIS G. PIKE (New York)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)GARRY BROWN (Michigan)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)

SENATEJOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSCHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman

LYLE E. GRAMLEYWILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copyor by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON D.C. 20402

U


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the second quarter, gross national product rose $58.9 billion or 13.7 percent,both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent andthe implicit price deflator rose at a 7.1 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

1,800

1,600

1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALEj

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

1,200

1,000

1977

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates"

Period

1966196719681969197019711972 _197319741975. _ __1976

1976: III—m__IV__.

In77:lII...

Grossna-

tionalprod-uct

753.0796.3868. 5935. 5982.4

1, 063. 41, 171. 11, 306. 61, 412. 91, 528. 81, 706. 5

1, 651. 21, 691. 91, 727. 31, 755. 4

1, 810. 81, 869. 7

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tionex-

pend-itures

464. 8490.4535.9579.7618.8668.2733. 0809.9889.6980.4

1, 094 0

1, 056. 01, 078. 51, 102. 21, 139. 0

1, 172. 41, 194. 0

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

124. 5120.8131.5146.2140. 8160. 0188. 3220. 0214. 6189. 1243. 3

231. 3244.4254,3243.4

271.8294.9

Exportgooc

Netex-

ports

5. 14.92.31.83.91.6

-3. 37. 16.0

20.47.8

10.210.27.93.0

-8.2-9. 8

s and imj[s and ser

Ex- -ports

42. 845. 649. 954. 762. 565.672. 7

101. 6137. 9147. 3162. 9

153.9160.6168.4168. 5

170.4178. 0

)orts ofvices

Im-ports

37.740. 647.752.958.564.075.994.4

131.9126. 9155. 1

143.7150.4160. 6165. 6

178.6187.8

Go^

Total

158. 7180. 2198. 7207. 9218. 9233.7253. 1269. 5302. 7338.9361.4

353. 6358. 9363. 0370. 0

374.9390.6

/eminent

Total

78.890. 998. 097.595.696.2

102. 1102.2111. 1123. 3130. 1

127.6128. 5130.2134. 2

136.3143. 6

purchasesservices

Federal

' Na-tional

de-fense 1

60. 371. 576.976.373. 570.273. 573.577.083.986. 8

86. 386. 086.488. 4

89.793.4

of goods

Non-de-

fense

18.519. 521.221.222. 126. 028.628. 734. 139.443. 3

41.342. 543. 845. 8

46.750.2

and

Stateandlocal

79.889. 3

100. 7110.4123.2137.5151.0167.3191. 5215. 6231. 2

225. 9230.4232. 7235.8

238.5247.0

Finalsales

738.7786.2860. 8926. 2978. 6

1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 288. 61, 404. 01, 540. 31, 693. 1

1, 636. 71, 673. 71, 705. 81, 756. 3

1, 797. 01, 848. 0

»This eatefory corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,sfeown on p. 33.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonaEy adjusted annual rates]

Period

196619671968 -19691970—197119721973197419751976

1976: III—III_.IV. _

1977: 1— .II

Grossnationalproduct

981.01, 007. 71, 051. 81, 078. 81, 075. 31, 107. 51, 171. 11, 235. 01, 217. 81, 202. 11, 274. 7

1, 256. 01, 271. 51, 283. 71, 287. 4

1, 311. 01, 330. 6

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tion

expend-itures

586. 1603.2633.4655.4668.9691.9733. 0767.7760.7775.1821.3

807.2815.5822.7839.8

850.4854.1

Gross iii

Non-resi-

dentialfixed

106.1103. 5108. 0114.3110.0108.0116.8131.0130.6112.7116.8

113. 7115.9118.5119.0

124. 3126.4

>rivate doivestmenl

Resi-dentialfixed

38. 537. 242. 843.240.452.262.059. 7

• 45.038.847.7

44847.147.152.0

52.757.6

mesticb

Changein busi-ness in-vento-

ries

16.712.0a 7

10.64.36.69.4

16.58.0

-9.98.5

9. 712. 113.8

-1.8

9.713.2

Expa

Netexports

4.33. 5

— . 4— 1. 3

1.4-.6

-3.37.6

15.922.516.0

16.816.417.013.8

10.69.3

orts of gcad service

Exports

51.654.258. 562.267. 167.972.787.493.089.995.8

93.195.297.996.9

96.998.5

>odsJS

Imports

47.35a758.963. 565. 768.575.979.977. 167.479.8

76.378.980.983. 1

86.389.2

Governigooc

Total

229.324a3259.2256. 7250.2249.4253. 1252. 5257.7263.0264.4

263.9264.4264.6264.6

263.3270.0

nent pures and ser

Federal

112.5125.3128.3121. 8110. 7103.9102. 196. 695.896.796. 5

96.496. 196.797.1

97.0101.1

liases ofvices

Stateandlocal

116.8123. 1130.9134.9139.5145.5151. 0155.9161. 8166.3167.9

167.5168.4168.0167. 5

166.416R9

TTi-nal-Tinaisales

964.3995.7

1, 043. 11, 068. 21, 071. 01, 100. 91, 161. 71, 218. 51, 209. 91, 212. 01, 266. 2

1, 246. 31, 259. 41, 269. 81, 289. 2

1, 301. 21, 317. 4

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1972=100]

Period

19661967196819691970.. _197119721973 ._197419751976

1976:1IIIIIIV

1977: III

Grossnationalproduct

76.7679.0282. 5786. 7291. 3696. 02

100.00105. 80116. 02127. 18133. 88

131. 47133. 06134. 56136. 35

138. 13140. 51

Persona]

Total

79.381. 384. 688. 592.596.6

100. 0105.5116.912&5133.2

130.8132.3134.0135. 6

137.9139.8

consump

_ .goods

85.787.490. 793. 195.599.0

100.0101. 6108.4117.9124.7

122.2123. 8125. 3127.2

129.3129.5

tion expei

Non-durablegoods

80. 181.985. 389.493.696.6

100.0107,9123.8133. 1137. 7

136.2136. 9138.3139.3

141.5143.8

nditures

Services

76.578. 882.086.190.595.8

100. 0104.7113.6123.5132.3

129.2131. 1133.2135.4

137.8140. 1

Gross idom

invest

Nonres-idential

fixed

76. 879. 382.686.691. 396.4

100. 0103.8115.3132. 3138. 7

136.8137.8139.2140. 9

142. 5144.4

Drivateesticment

Resi-dentialfixed

74.677.080.787.790. 694.9

100.0110.8122. 3132. 8142. 5

137. 1140.7144. 1147. 5

153.7157.6

Exporimports

and se

Exports

82.884. 085. 387.993. 196.6

100.0116.2148. 3163.8170.0

165.3168. 6172. 0174. 0

175.9180.8

ts andof goodsrvices

Imports

79.780. 180. 983.389. 193.5

100.0118.2171. 0188.2194.3

188.2190. 7198.4199.3

207.0210.6

GovernEchases <

and sc

Federal

70.172. 676.480.086.492.6

100.0105. 8115.9127. 5134.8

132.4133.7134.7138.2

140.6142.0

aent pur-3f goodsjrvices

Stateandlocal

68.472. 576.981.988. 394.5

100.0107. 3118.4129. 7137.7

134.9136.8138.6140.7

143.4146.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19661967196819691970197119721973197419751976

1976:1IIIIIIV

1977:1 -II

Cur-rentdol-lars

9.45.89. 17.75.08.2

10.111.68. 18.2

11.6

13.210.28. 6a7

13.213.7

Gross i

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

5.92.74.42.6-.33.05.75. 5

-1.4-1.3

6.0

8.85. 13.91.2

7.56. 1

lational p

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

3.32.94.55.05.45.14.15.89.79. 65.3

4.14.94.65.4

5.37.1

roduct

Chainpriceindex

3.13.04.45. 05. 35.04.16.09.99.55. 6

4.95.34.65. 9

6. 97.0

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

2.93.04.35.05.24.94.06.0

10.29.45.6

4.65.24.86. 0

7. 17.0

Cur-rentdol-lars

9. 65.79. 17.85.08.1

10.111.57.98. 5

11.4

12.410. 58.26. 9

12. 613.6

Gross c

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

6.12.74.42.6-.32.85.85.4

-1.3-1. 1

5.9

8.35.23.71.3

7.26.1

lomestic i

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

3.33.04.55. 15.35.14.15.79.39.75.2

3.85.04.45.5

5.07.1

>roduct

Chainpriceindex

3.13.14.45. 05.35,04.15.99.69.55.6

4.85.44.56.0

6.77.0

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

3.03.04.45.05.24.94.05.99.99.45.6

4.65.24.66.1

7.07.0

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from pre-vious quarter.


NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19661967196819691970197119721973197419751976

1976:1II..III...IV..

1977: !-__.II*___

Gross cprodi

nonfincorpbusi

(bffiicdoll

Currentdollars

430.7452.9498.4541.8560.6602.5671.0752. 0808.8875.2991.0

958.4983. 6

1, 004. 71, 017. 2

1, 049. 31, 094. 2

omesticict ofancialorateness>ns ofars)

1972dollars

532.9545.8581.6607. 3600.6619.3671.0720.4695. 0678.9731.0

719.4731.3736. 6736. 5

753.3771. 3

C

Totalcostand

profit 2

0.808.830.857.892.933.973

1.0001. 0441.1641.2891. 356

1.3321.3451.3641.381

1.3931. 419

urrent-do

Capitalcon-

sumptionallow-anceswith

capitalcon-

sumptionadjust-ment

0.067.072.074.079.088.094.093.095. 116. 143. 146

.145

. 144

. 147

. 150

. 149

.148

liar cost a

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.080.084.089.094.103.110.110. 112. 123. 136.136

.134

. 135

. 136

.139

.140

.139

nd profit

Com-pen-

sationof

employ-ees

0.513.535.553.589.628.645.661.699.796.849.890

.870

.880

.892

.916

.930

.943

per unit

Netin-

terest

0.014.016.017.022.028.029.028.032. 043.045. 044

.044

.044

. 044

.045

. 046

.047

of outpu

Corpcinvent

capili

Total

0.134. 123. 124. 109.086.095.107. 105.086.115.139

.139

. 142

. 145

. 132

.128

. 141

t (dollars)

>rate profiory valual,al consunidjustmen

Profitstax

liability

0.055.051.058.055.045.048.050.055.061.060.073

.072

. 075

. 074

.072

.070

.074

i

ts withion andiptionts

Profitsaftertax4

0.078.072.066.055.041.046.057.050.024.055.066

.067

.066

.071

.060

.058

.067

Outputper

hourof all

employ-ees

(1972dollars)

6.7776.8737. 1057. 1397. 1327.3747.5957.7817.5067. 7668.055

7.9878.0678. 1098.057

»8. 176

Com-pen-

sationper

hourof all

employ-ees

(dollars)

3.4783.6763.9294.1984.4784.7575. 0245.4415. 9726.5967.166

6.9527. 0967.2367.378

*7. 604

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporatebusiness in 1972 dollars.

2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial cor-porate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer paymentsless subsidies.

* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1974 for output and compensation per hour.Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-

partment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1966 --196719681969 -1970197119721973___197419751976

1976: IIIIIIIV

1977: I _ _ _ _ _ _II 9

Na-tionalincome

622. 2655. 8714. 4767.9798.4858. 1951. 9

1, 064. 61, 136. 01, 217. 01, 364. 1

1, 321. 01, 353. 91, 379. 61, 402. 1

1, 450. 21, 505. 1

Com-pensa-tion of

em-ploy-ees l

439. 3471. 9519. 8571. 4609. 2650. 3715. 1799. 2875. 8930. 3

1, 036. 3

999. 61, 024. 91, 046. 51, 074. 2

1, 109. 91, 144. 7

Propriincom

inventortion anc

consuladjust

Farm

13.612. 112. 013. 913. 914. 318. 032. 025.423.218.6

20.021. 616. 216.6

20. 719.7

etors's withy valua-capital

aptionments

Non-farm

46.748. 951.452. 351.253.458. 160.460. 962. 869.4

66.968.870. 072. 0

74.377.3

i

"Rant al

of per-

withcapital

con-sump-tion

adjust-ment

18. 219.418.618. 118.620. 121. 521. 621.422. 323. 3

23. 022.923.324. 1

24. 5249

Corporand

Total

82.579.385. 881.467. 977.292. 199. 183.699. 3

128. 1

126. 5129. 2133. 5123. 1

125. 4139.7

ate profitscapital co

Profitsvalualand \

consum

Total

78. 675. 682. 177.966.476. 989. 697.286. 5

111. 5142. 7

141. 1143. 7148.2137.9

141. 0155. 6

with inv<nsumptioi

with inv(ion adjuswithout caption adji

Profitsbefore

tax

80. 777. 385.683.471.582. 096.2

115.8126.9123. 5156.9

153. 5159. 2159.9154.8

161. 7173.4

mtory vali adjustm

jntorybmentpitalistment

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-2. 1-1.7-3.4-5. 5-5. 1-5. 0-6. 6

-18. 6-40.4-12. 0-14. 1

-12.4-15. 5-11.7-16.9

-20. 6-17.8

uationents

Capitalcon-

sump-tion

adjust-ment

3.93.73.73. 51. 5.3

2.51.9

-2.9— 12.2-14.7

-14.6— 14.6-14.7— 14. 8

-15. 6-15.9

Netinterest

21.924.326.830.837.542. 847.052.369. 079. 188.4

85. 086. 590. 192.0

95.398.9

i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1966. .19671968 _19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: IIIIII_...IV____

1977: III

T/^-f-al

personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

464. 8490. 4535. 9579. 7618. 8668. 2733. 0809.9889. 6980.4

1, 094. 0

1, 056. 01, 078. 51, 102. 21, 139. 0

1, 172. 41, 194. 0

D

Totaldurablegoods 1

67. 769.680. 085. 584. 997. 1

111.2123.7122. 0132. 9158. 9

153.3156.7159. 3166. 3

177. 0178.6

urable goo

Motorvehicles

andparts

30. 129. 735.837.734. 943.850. 655. 248.053. 971.9

68.871. 072. 175. 7

85. 384. 5

ds

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

27. 729. 532.635.036.739.444.850. 754.958. 063. 9

61.963. 063.966.5

67.469.3

Totalnon-

durablegoods 1

204. 7212. 6230. 4247. 0264. 7277. 7299. 3333. 8376.3409.3442. 7

430.4437. 1444. 7458. 8

466. 6474,4

N on dura

Food

106. 6109. 6118. 3126. 1136. 3140. 6150.4168. 1189.8209. 5225. 5

219. 3223.8227. 0232. 0

237.9244.8

ale goods

Clothingand

shoes

36.638.241.845. 146.650. 555.161. 365. 370. 276. 3

74. 274.376.979.9

79.380.4

Gasolineand oil

16. 017. 018.420.422. 023.424.927. 836.439. 141.4

40. 640.341.243. 5

44. 1443

Services

192.4208. 1225. 6247. 2269. 1293.4322.4352. 3391.3438.2492.3

472.4484. 6498. 2513. 9

528.8541. 1

Retailnew pacars (n

of ui

Do-mes-tics

8,47.68. 68. 57.18.79.39.77.57.18.6

8. 88.78.48.5

9.49.3

sales ofssengerlillionslits)

Im-ports

0.7. 8

1. 01. 11. 31. 61.61.81.41. 61. 5

1. 31.41. 51.7

1. 82.4

1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal Income rose $11.7 billion (annual rate) in July, compared with an increase of $7.0 billion (revised) in June.Wage and salary disbursements were up $5.4 billion in July following a $4.5 billion rise in June. Transfer paymentsincreased $6.6 billion in July, about three-fourths of which was due to a cost-of-living increase in social security benefits.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800


1,6001,400

1,200

1,000

800

600600

400

200

100

80

60

-T \WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

400

200

100

80

60

40

OTHER INCOME

•mANSFQ*.PAYMiMTS

4 0 1 , 1 1 i i l im i t 1 1 1 ii I f 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n. i u n 1 1 1 1 n i i n nln n1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCH. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

196919701971197219731974197519761976: July....

AugSept_._OctNovDec

1977: JanFebMar....AprMay...JuneJuly*3

Totalpersonalincome

745.8801. 3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154. 91, 253. 41, 382. 71, 386. 21, 393. 71, 401. 81, 414. 21, 432. 11, 450. 21, 454. 31, 477. 01, 499. 11, 510. 11, 517. 31, 524 31, 536. 0

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments 1

514.6546. 5579.4633. 8701. 3764. 6805. 7891. 8894. 5899. 8906. 1914. 0923. 9931.7937.3951. 7964. 9974. 1982. 0986.5991. 9

Otherlabor

income12

28.232.036.242. 048.755. 664975.976.477.378. 179. 180. 081.082. 183.284.485.586. 787. 989. 1

Proprieto

Farm

13. 913.914318.032.025. 423.218.618.215. 614 615. 316. 418. 119.621. 021. 720. 919.818.416. 5

rs' income3

Nonfarm

52. 351. 253.458. 160.460. 962.869.469.470. 170. 570. 872. 173.272.574476. 076. 977.277.677.4

Rentalincome

ofpersons 4

18.118. 620. 121. 521. 621. 422. 323.323. 223. 323. 423. 924 124.424424 624 624 324 825.6247

Divi-dends

22.622.923. 024 627.831. 032.435.835. 836. 036. 336. 737.241. 237.938.539. 039. 339. 641. 942. 0

Personalinterestincome

55.964 369. 374684 1

103.0115.6130.3130.4132. 2134 1135.2136.4137.6139.0140. 3141. 8143. 5145. 2147. 4149. 1

Transferpay-

ments 5

66. 579.994 1

1041118. 9140.8176.8192.8193. 719491945195.5198.4200.0200. 5203. 0206. 9206. 0202. 9200.0206.5

Less : Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

26. 328. 030. 834242. 247.750. 455.255.455.655.956. 156.757. 059. 059. 660. 260.660.961.061.4

Non-farm

personalincome 6

725.8780.7838.0917. 3

1, Oil. 91, 119. 31, 218. 81, 351. 31, 355. 11, 365. 01, 374 01, 385. 51, 402. 11, 418. 51, 421. 11, 442. 41, 463. 71, 475. 31, 483. 51, 491. 61, 505. 1

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsfrom compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribu-tions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.

3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.*With capital consumption adjustment.

* Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans pay-ments.

6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm otherlabor income, and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the second quarter,

BHUONS OF DOLLARS*' (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLAI&* {RATIQ SCALE)1400

—PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

2,0001969 1970

*~.SEASONALIY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

19772,000

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19681969.1970197119721973197419751976

1976: !_._II...III..IV..

1977: I....II...

Per-sonal

income

685.2745.8801.3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154. 91, 253. 41, 382. 7

1, 338. 11, 366. 71, 393, 91, 432. 21, 476. 81, 517. 2

Less:Per-sonaltaxandnon-tax

pay-ments

Bi]

97. 1115.4115.3116. 3141. 2150.8170.3169. 0196. 9

184.8192. 6200. 6209. 5224. 4224.8

Equals :Dispos-

ableper-sonal

income

lions of d<

588.1630.4685. 9742. 8801. 3901.7984. 6

1, 084. 41, 185. 8

1, 153. 31, 174. 11, 193. 31, 222. 61, 252. 41, 292. 5

Less:Per-sonalout-lays1

ollars

550. 1595. 3635. 4685. 5751.9831. 3913. 0

1, 004. 21, 119. 9

Seas

1, 080. 91, 103. 81, 128. 51, 166. 31, 201. 01, 223. 9

Equals :Per-sonal

saving

38. 135. 150.657.349. 470. 371.780. 265.9

onally ad;

72.470.364.856.351.468.5

Per cdispc

persona

Currentdollars

2,9303, 1113,3483,5883,8374,2854, 6465,0775,511

usted ann

5,3745,4625,5405, 6655,7935,967

japita>sableI income

1972dollars

Dol

3,4643,5153,6193,7143,8374,0623, 9734,0144, 137

ual rates

4,1074,1304,1354, 1774,2024,268

Per capsonal c<

tion exp<

Currentdollars

lars

2,6702,8603,0203,2273,5103,8494, 1974,5915,084

4,9215,0175, 1175,2775,4235,512

ita per->nsump-snditures

1972dollars

3,1563,2343,2653,3423,5103,6483,5893,6293,817

3,7613, 7943,8203,8913,9333,943

Percentchangein real

percapitadispos-

able

sonalincome

2.81.53.02.63.35.9

-2.21.03. 1

4.52.3. 5

4, 12.46.4

Savingas per-cent ofdispos-

ableper-sonal

income

6.55.67.47.76.27.87.37.45.6

6. 36.05.44. 64. 15.3

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

200, 706202. 677204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211, 945213, 566215, 191

214, 608214, 948215, 380215, 827216, 206216, 602

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, Interest paid by consumersto business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 andare averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are for middle ofperiod.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureauof the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the second quarter, farm income excluding inventory change fell $0.8 billion (annual rate). Including inventorychange the decline was $1.0 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL^

120

100

60

40

REALIZED GROSSFARM INCOME

120

100

80

60

40

20

NET FARM INCOMEINCLUDING NET INVENTORY

CHANGE -

\v\

20

10 \ 101969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

197$ 1977


[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

196919701971197219731974197519761976:1

IIIII.IV

1977:1II

Personaby total

Fromall

sources

26.927.428. 734.448.644.744.342.0

1 incomefarmpo

Fromfarm

sources

12. 913.013. 416.829. 023. 121.517.8

receivedpulation

Fromnonfannsources

13.914.415. 317.619. 521. 622.824.2

Total1

56.358. 660. 670. 195. 5

100.096.7

103.6102. 1109. 6100.9101.9105. 6108. 8

Realize

Casli

Total

Billioi48.250.552.961.287. 192. 488. 194.393.0

100.491. 592.495.999.0

id gross

i receiptsnarketing

Live-stockand

productsis of dolla

28.629.630.635. 745.941.443.046.446.348.345.545.445.348.0

[ncome re

froms

Crops

rs

19.621.022.325. 541. 151. 145. 147.946.752.146.047.050. 651.0

ceived fro

Produc-tion ex-penses

42.144.447.452.365. 672.275.981.779.184.282.381.283. 187.1

m f arminj

Net t(oper

Exclud-ing netinven-tory

change

14.214. 113.217.829. 927.720.821.923.025.418.620.722.521.7

5

> farmators

Includ-ing netinven-tory

change 2

14.314.214.618.733.326. 124.320.021. 523.217.618.022.021. 0

Net incfarm inclinventor

Currentdollars

Dol

4,7664,7905,0306,504

11, 7279,2328,6377,2037,7408, 3506, 3306,4807,9907,630

ome peruding nety change 3

1967dollars 4

lars4,3724,2024,2635,2888,8176,1145,2034, 0934,5004,8003,5803,6004,3704,080

1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney in-come furnished by farms.2 Inventory of crop? and livestock valued at the average price for the year.

s Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms Isheld constant within a year.

< Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by fanners for

family living items on a 1967 base. As of January 1977 movement is based on theoverall change in the consumer price index.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

94-783°—77-


CORPORATE PROFITSAccording to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, profits before tax rose $11.7 billion (annual rate) whileprofits with inventory valuation adjustment rose $14.6 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

40 40

1969 1970

SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1976 1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISfRS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1966196719681969_1970 .1971197219731974197519761976: 1__.

II .__Illr v _ _ _ .

1977: III"

Profil

Total 2

78. 675.682. 177. 966.476. 989. 697. 286. 5

111. 5142. 7141. 1143. 7148. 2137.9141. 0155.6

is (before

Total

75. 972. 678. 974.262.672.484.790. 476. 9

105. 4134.6132.4136. 1139. 8130. 2131. 0144 8

tax) witadjustn

Dome

Finan-cial

8. 59.0

10.411.312. 614. 115.416. 214. 415. 018. 217. 818.118.418.419.219.9

b inventaent 1

stic indu

N

Total 3

67.463.668.562.950. 158. 269. 374. 162.590. 3

116.4114. 6118.0121. 3111. 8111. 8124.9

ary valu2

s tries

onfinanc

Manu-fac-tur-ing

41. 637.941.236. 827. 132. 440. 644. 136. 647. 966.365.368.768.462. 965. 2

ition

ial

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

8.08. 9

10. 110. 19.4

11.713.314. 712. 922. 127. 126.525. 529. 127.424. 0

Profitsbefore

tax

80. 777. 385.683.471.582.096.2

115. 8126. 9

1 123. 5156. 9153.5159. 2159.9154.8161.7173. 4

Taxlia-

bility

33. 732. 539.439.734. 537. 741. 548.752.450.264. 763. 166. 165.963. 964.469.3

Pro

Total

47. 144. 946. 243. 837.044. 354. 667. 174.573.492. 190.493. 194. 090. 997.2

104. 1

fits after

Divi-dends

19.420. 121.922. 622.923. 024.627.831.032.435.833.635. 036. 038.438.540.3

tax

Un-dis-trib-utedprof-

its

27.624.724. 221. 214. 121. 330.039. 343. 641.056.456. 858. 158. 052.558.863.8

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

2. 1-1.7-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5. 0-6.6

-18. 6-40.4-12. 0-14. 1-12.4-15.5-11.7-16. 9-20.6-17.8

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust-ments.

2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.8 Includes industries not shown separately.

8

Source: Department oi Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTBusiness fixed inveshnenf rose $5,4 billion (annual rafe) in the second quarfer as investment in structures rose $3.1billion and purchases of producers' durable equipment increased $2.2 billion. Residential investment increased $9.8billion. Inventory investment amounted to $21.7 billion, up $7.9 billion from the first quarter level.


300

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)120

_NONRES!DENTIAL FIXED NVESTMBsIT

100

80

60

I t I

.PRODUCERS'.DURABLE EQUIPMENT

I I I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

40


lUCTURES

I \ [ I 1 t

40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES-

20

-20 -

-40I I I

19731 I I

1974I I

1975I t I

1976I I . I

1977

50 -

1977

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVlSIRS


Period

19661967196819691970197119721973 __19741975 _ _19761976: I

IIIIIIV

1977: III

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

124.5120. 8131. 5146.2140.8160.0188. 3220. 0214. 6189. 1243. 3231. 3244.4254. 3243.4271. 8294.9

Nor

Total

81.482. 189. 398. 9

100.5104. 1116.8136. 0150. 6149. 1161. 9155.4159. 8164.9167.6177. 0182.4

iresident

Struc

Total

29.229.531.635.737.739. 342. 549. 054.552. 955. 854.755. 856. 057.057.961. 0

ial fixed

tures

Non-farm

28. 128.230.434.336. 137. 841. 146.951.850.453.452. 153.453. 654.455. 158.2

investme

Proddur

equip

Total

52.252.657.763. 362. 864. 774.387.096.296. 3

106. 1100.8104. 0109. 0110. 6119. 2121. 4

mt

ucers'ablement

Non-farm

47.948. 053.458. 958. 159. 969. 180. 188.287. 195. 990. 593.898.4

100. 7107. 8110.0

Resid

Total

28.728.634.537.936. 649.662.066.155. 151. 568.061.466. 367. 876. 781.090.8

ential fix

Non-farm

struc—tures

27.427.233. 136.335.147. 960. 364. 352. 749.565. 758. 964. 165.774.378.588.2

ed inves

Farmstruc-tures

0 77676776

1 29

1 01 21 0

91 11 11 2

tment

Pt*r»

ducers,dur-able

equip-ment

0.7.7.8.9.9

1.01. 11.21.21. 11. 31.21.21.21.31.4L4

Changeness mv

Total

14.310. 17.79.43. 86.49.4

17.98.9

-11.513. 314. 518. 321. 5— . 9

13.821.7

in busi-entories

Non-farm

14.59.47.69.23. 75. 18.8

14.710.8

-15. 114. 9

15.920.422. 01.4

14.122.4



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTBusiness plans to increase capital spending 12.3 percent in 1977, according to the Commerce April-May survey,slightly more than the expected increase reported in March.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

40

20 201969 1970

3f *EE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE


Period

197019711972..197319741975_19761977 4

1976: I-IIIIIIV

1977: III *____III 4

IV*_ —

Total »

79.7181.2188.4499.74

112. 40112. 78120. 49185. 84114.72118. 12122. 55125. 22130. 16134. 46136. 91189. 08

M

Total

31. 9529.9931. 353aoi46.0147.9552.4859.9149. 2150.6454.7854.4456. 4358. 6261. 7762. 83

E:

anufactun

Dur-able

goods

15. 8014. 1515.6419.2522. 6221.8423. 6827.4421.6322. 5424. 5925. 5026. 3026.4228. 8028. 59

spenditur<

ing

Non-durablegoods

16. 1515.8415. 7218.7623. 3926. 1128.8132. 4727.5828. 0930. 2028. 9330.1332. 2033. 4638. 74

5s for plan

!

Total

47.7651.2257.0961. 7366. 3964.8268.0175.4265. 5167.4867.7670.7873.7475.8475. 1476. 75

it and equ

N

Mining

1. 892. 162. 422. 743. 183.794. 004.413.833. 834.214. 134.244.424.54

dpment

onmanuf

Trans-porta-tion

6. 044. 935.726. 036.667.577.456.836. 558. 247.257. 537.296. 606. 74

acturing

Publicutili-ties

13. 1415.3017. 0018. 7120. 5520.1422. 2826. 1121. 9121. 8521. 6723.4625.3525. 6525. 72

Com-muni-cation

10. 1010.7711. 8912. 8513. 9612. 7413. 3015.3412. 5412. 6213.6414.3014. 19

89.88.

Com-mer-cialand

other 2

16. 5918. 0520. 0721. 4022.0520.6020. 9922. 7520. 6820. 9420. 9921.3622.67

1614

Starts cand eqi

pro]€

Manu-factur-

ing

29. 1828. 0035. 2147. 5752. 4948. 2451. 05

11. 6412. 7713. 2212. 8815.26

f plantlipment;cts3

Publicutili-ties

17. 2022. 2228. 6038. 1345. 7434. 5029. 66

3. 438. 567. 54

10. 229.76

— „ Agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do notagree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross nationalproduct estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlayscharged to current account.a Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.

10

8 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures duringgiven period.

* Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported bybusiness in late April and May 1977.

NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals.Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for sys-

tematic biases in expectations data.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted unemployment declined in July by 218,000 and employment decreased slightly by 118,000as the civilian labor force decreased by 336,000. The decline in civilian employment was the first in 9 months.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS100

MilLlONS OF PERSONS*100

SEASONAILY ADJUSTED

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

i HIM! f Mi l t t f ni t ini M in! t i n t f i t n l t f i M i r t M l t i M i MM MM t i t_ j _ j _ j _ j _ j _ f I l I I I MM I...1JJ I ill || 1I.J 0

1976 I 1977

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19721973197419751976

1976: July.Aug>Sept.Oct..Nov.Dec.

1977: Jan..Feb__Mar_Apr__May>June_July.

Nonin-stitu-tional

popula-tion

145, 775148, 263150, 827153, 449156, 048

Ui

156, 142156, 367156, 595156, 788157, 006157, 176

157, 381157, 584157, 782157, 986158,228158, 456158, 682

Civilianemploy-

ment

81, 70284, 40985, 93584, 78387, 485

aadjusted

89, 60889, 36787, 94988, 69788, 54288, 494

86, 85687, 23188, 21589, 25890, 04291, 68292, 372

Unem-ploy-ment

4,8404,3045,0767, 8307,288

7,5777,3237,0266,8337,0957,022

7,8488,1097,5566, 5686, 1517,4536,941

Totallaborforce

(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

88, 99191, 04093, 24094, 79396, 917

97, 32997, 49897, 38797, 44998, 02098, 106

97, 64998, 28298, 67798, 89299, 28699, 77099, 440

Civilianlaborforce

86, 54288, 71491, Oil92, 61394, 773

95, 18995, 35195, 24295, 30295, 87195, 960

95, 51696, 14596, 53996, 76097, 15897, 64197, 305

C

Tni a!JL U ifdJ.

81, 70284, 40985, 93584, 78387, 485

87, 78387, 83487, 79487, 73888, 22088, 441

88, 55888, 96289, 47590, 02390, 40890, 67990, 561

ivilian ei

Agri-cul-tural

3,4723,4523, 4923, 3803,297

Seasc

3,3333, 3723,2783,3103,2483,257

3,0903, 0903, 1163,2603, 3863,3383,213

aiploymen

Nonagri

TntolJL U ttii

78, 23080, 95782, 44381, 40384, 188

mally adj

84, 45084, 46284, 51684, 42884, 97285, 184

85, 46885, 87286, 35986, 76387, 02287, 34187, 348

it

cultural

Part-timefor eco-nomic

reasons 1

2,4082, 3112, 7093,4903,272

usted

3,1363, 1783,3763,4483, 5453,454

3,3203,4383,2763, 1743, 2903,3683,371

Unempl

TntolJL U tell

4,8404, 3045, 0767,8307, 288

7,4067, 5177,4487,5647,6517,519

6,9587, 1837,0646, 7376, 7506,9626,744

Dyment

15weeksandover

1,158812937

2,4832, 339

2,2472,3412, 3112,3602, 5172,514

2,2832, 1821,9231,8161,8361,7371,834

Laborforce

partici-pationrate(per-

cent)2

61.061.461. 861.862. 1

62.362.462.262.262.462.4

62.062.462.562.662.763. 062.7

1 Persons at work in nonagrieultural industries.2 Total labor force as percent oi noninstitutional population 16 years of age andover.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn July the unemployment rate returned to the May level of 6.9 percent after a slight increase in June. All of thedecrease took place among adult women and teenagers. The teenage unemployment rate of 17.4 percent was thelowest since October 1974.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

1973

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1972 _19731974197519761976: July

AugSeptGetNovDec

1977: Jan_.FebMarAprMayJuneJuly

Total(all

civil-ian

work-ers)

5. 64. 95.68.57.77.87.97.87.98.07.87.37. 57.37. 06.97. 16.9

Uner

By s

Men20

yearsandover

4, 03. 23, 86.75.96. 15. 96. 16. 26. 36.25.65. 85. 45. 05.35.05.1

nployme

>ex and s

Women20

yearsandover

5.44,85. 58.07.47. 67.87. 67. 67.67. 46. 97.27. 27. 06. 67. 26.9

nt rate (

ige

Bothsexes16-19years

16. 214. 516.019. 919. 018. 219. 618. 819. 019. 219. 018. 7ia 518. 817. 817. 918.617.4

Dercent c

By

White

5.04.35.07. 87. 07. 17. 17. 27. 27.37. 1a 76.76. 66. 36.26. 3a i

>f civiliai

color

Blackand

other

10.08.99. 9

13. 913. 112. 913.612.813. 413. 513.412.513. 112. 712. 312. 913. 213.2

i labor fc

]

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

5.34. 55. 38.27.37.47.57.47. 57.67.47.07. 16. 9as6.76.56.4

>rce in gi

3y seled

House-hold

heads

3,32.93. 35.85.15.35.25. 45.45. 35. 14.84.94. 64.44. 54.34.3

-oup)

ed group

Full-time

work-ers

5. 14.35. 18.17.37.37.57.57. 67.67.5a76. 96.76. 56. 56.5as

)S

Part-time

work-ers

8.67.98.6

10.310.110.610. 09.6

10.310. 59.8

10.210.711. 19. 99. 9

10.79.2

Laborforcetimelost(per-

cent) *

6.05.26. 19.18.38. 18.48. 48.68.68. 48. 07. 97.87.47.57.57.4

1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time tor eco-nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSUR-ANCE PROGRAMSThe decline in seasonally adjusted unemployment of 218,000 in July was accompanied by an increase in the propor-tion of job losers and a decrease in the proportion of job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

60

40

20

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

I i I I I I I M I I

JOB LOSERS

^\i

\NEW ENTRANTS

M M t I M I M

1974 1975

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

REENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

1976

i i i i1977

20

1974 1975 1977


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19721973__1974.197519761976: July__

Aug__Sept..Oet___Nov__Dec..

1977: Jan_._Feb..Mar__AprMay_.June v.July *_

unem.—nlnv—piuy-ment(thou-sands)

4,8404,3045,0767,8307,2887,4067,5177,4487,5647,6517,5196,9587, 1837,0646, 7376, 7506,9626,744

PercenPi

Joblosers

43. 238.743.455. 449.850. 949. 349. 750.049. 850. 045.647.544. 443. 644. 242. 745. 8

t distriboyment

Jobleavers

13. 115.714.910.412. 213.012. 912. 512. 511.211. 113.211.913.012. 513.713. 912. 5

ution ofay reasoi

Reen-trants

29.830.728.423. 826. 025. 425. 325.525. 627. 026.228.327. 528.429. 529. 027. 627. 1

unem-i1

Newen-

trants

13.914, 913.310.412. 110.712. 412. 311.912. 012. 612. 913. 114. 214. 413. 015. 714. 5

Perceiplo

Lessthan 5weeks

45.951.050. 637. 038. 340. 337. 537.638. 435. 536.438.739. 542.845.841. 544. 942.7

it distribyment b

5-14weeks

30. 130. 131. 031. 329.628.831.832. 030. 832. 130.529. 229. 729. 927. 431. 229.729.7

ution ofy durati(

15-26weeks

12.311.011. 116. 513. 814.614. 714.714. 215. 314,914. 613. 411. 110. 611. 911.713.8

unem-m 1

27weeksandover

11.67.87.3

15.218.316.415.915.716. 517. 118.217. 517. 416.316.315.413. 813.8

State pi

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Wee

1,8481,6322, 2623,9922,9683,0453, 1833, 2603,2633, 1602,9692, 7812,7742,5642,4892, 5152,5412, 649

rograms

Initialclaims

jkly avei

261246363478382411416421421388361409419335363381373389

Insuredunem-ploy-ment,

allregular

pro-grams 2

(unad-justed)

age, thou

2, 1921,7932,5584,9433,8223,6423,4463,2353,2173,4533,8844,4424,4483,9723, 5063, 1052,9373,063

Specialunem-ploy-ment

benefitclaims 3

(unad-justed)

sands

1, 1731, 1521,3791, 327

986853862903823911901784538484540

i Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.J Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Bico), ex-service-men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RB) programs. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federalsupplemental benefits) and SXJA (special unemployment assistance).

FSB and SIT A. These programs started January 1975 and regular reportingbegan March 1975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employmentand Training Administration). >• ̂

io


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTDespite the decrease in total civilian employment, nona<ninth consecutive month, rising by 256,000. Most major incfactoring, services, and trade.

[ricultural payroll employment increased in July for thelustries registered increases with the largest gains in manu-

MILL10NS OF PERSONS*_ .

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* {ENLARGED SCALE)

SO

70

50

40

30

20

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

•"SERVICE-̂ PRODUCING 'INDUSTRIES

-GOODS-PRODUCING -INDUSTRIES

1973 1974•SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

nnilnm1975 1976

n ml

18

16

14

12

22

20

^in i f him

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

GOVERNMENT

X4*M*"-"* -_ ..u**eg

T"SERVICES

in

MANUFACTURING

t M 1 1 1 1 n. II 1 I I 1 I II I I M t 1 I IH I t I I 1 M I I t t i t 111 I I II!

M i l

1977

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

1973 1974 I 1975 I 1976 1977


[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted j

Period

197219731974197519761976: July..

Aug..Sept..Oct..Nov..Dec__

1977: Jan..Feb..Mar._Apr..May..June".July.

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

73, 71476, 89678, 41377, 05179, 44379, 51379, 61879, 91879, 81980, 10680, 34480, 56180, 82481, 39581, 68681, 92182, 09582, 351

C

Total 2

23, 54624, 72724, 69722, 60323, 33223, 34423, 31023, 46323, 32323, 48923, 50823, 58923, 70124, 00524, 21724, 30624, 35124, 424

roods-prc

Con-tractcon-

struc-tion

3,8314, 0153, 9573, 5123, 5943, 6083, 5793, 5653, 5823, 6193,6053,5613, 6453, 7593, 8423,8613,8773,913

)ducing i

Ma

Total

19, 09020, 06820, 04618, 34718, 95618, 94518, 97919, 10018, 94119, 06519, 09519, 21119, 23319, 40419, 52819, 60019, 61919, 690

ndus tries

nufactui

Durablegoods

11, 00611,83911,89510, 6791 1, 02611, 03411, 08311, 14611, 01811, 12811, 15811, 23611, 23011, 37011, 42311, 46911,49011, 527

3

ing

Non-durablegoods

8,0848,2298, 1517, 6687,9307,9117, 8967,9547,9237,9377,9377,9758,0038,0348, 1058, 1318, 1298,163

Total

50, 16752, 16953, 71554, 44856, 11156, 16956, 30856, 45556, 49656, 61756, 83656, 97257, 12357, 39057, 46957, 61557, 74457, 927

S

Trans-porta-tionand

publicutilities

4, 5174, 6444, 6964,4984, 5094,5084, 5014, 5284, 5064,5194,5534,5494,5534, 5684,5754,5864,5764,583

ervice-pr

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

15, 97516, 67417, 01717, 00017, 69417, 73717, 76417, 83917, 82417, 80817, 89817, 98118, 06718, 18918, 20318, 23518, 22718, 285

oducing

Finance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

3,9434, 0914, 2084, 2234,3164,3124, 3124, 3384, 3594, 3814,4034, 4234,4314,4534,4634,4804,4884,506

industry

Services

12, 39213, 02113, 61714, 00614, 64414, 66414, 75114, 79814, 81914, 87314, 93615, 01015, 06815, 14915, 18215, 19715, 24115, 305

iS

Gover

Federal

2,6842, 6632, 7242,7482,7332, 7232, 7322,7282,7302, 7342,7202, 7212,7212, 7252, 7192, 7232,7352, 730

nment

Stateandlocal

10, 65611,07511, 45311,97312, 21512, 22512, 24812, 22412, 25812, 30212, 32612, 28812, 28312, 30612, 32712, 39412, 47712, 518

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagriculturalestablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay periodwhich includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-sons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces, Total derived fromthis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment ol thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employedpersons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based onreports from employing establishments.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

196819691970197119721973197419751976

1976: JulyAugSeptOctNov.Dec

1977: JanFeb _MarAprMayJune*., _July

Aver

Totalprivatenonagri-cultural 1

37.837.737.137.037. 137. 136.636. 136.2

36. 136. 136.036. 136.236.2

35.836.336.336.236.336.236.1

age weekly 1

Manufa

Total

40.740.639.839.940. 640. 740. 039.440.0

40. 140.039.739. 940. 140.0

39.540.340. 440.340.440.540.3

lours

.cturing

Overtime

3.63.63.02.93. 53.83.22.63.1

3.13.03.02.93.13.2

3.23. 33.33.43.43.43.3

Averaghourly c

Totalprivatenonagri-cultural l

$2.853.043.223.443.673. 924.224.54487

4.884.914.924. 955.005.02

5. 075.095. 125.175.205.225.25

e grossjarnings

Manufac-turing

$3.013. 193.363. 573. 814. 084.414.815.19

5.215.255.295. 295. 345.38

5. 435.435.495.535.575.615.64

Adjusted h

Index, 1<

Currentdollars

106.2113.2120.7129.2137.7146.5158.5172.5185.0

185.6186.8187.5188. 4189. 7190.6

192.7193.2194. 1195.3196. 5197.4198.5

ourly earninnonagrie

367=100

1967dollars 3

101.9103. 1103.8106.6109.9110.0107. 3107.0108.5

108.5108.7108.7108.9109.3109.4

109. 7109.0108. 8108.6108.6108.5108.7

gs index — tcultural 2

Percent cta year <

Currentdollars

6.26.66.67. 16.56.48.28.87.3

7.37. 17. 16.86.76.9

7.37.07.07. 17.07.16.9

)tal private

tange fromsarlier *

1967dollars

1.91. 2. 7

2.73. 1.2

-2.5-.31.4

1.81.41.51.51. 61.9

2. 11.0.6.3.2.2.1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1968196919701971___1972 __ 11973__197419751976 _ -

1976: JulyAug.._ _ _ — _ _SeptOctNov._Dec _ _

1977: Jan _ _ _ __ _FebMar__AprMay__ _June15

July p

Total priagricu]

Currentdollars

$107. 73114. 61119. 46127. 28136. 16145. 43154. 45163. 89176. 29

176. 17177. 25177. 12178. 70181.00181. 72

181. 51184. 77185. 86187. 15188. 76188. 96189. 53

Average

vate non-tural *

1967dollars 3

$103. 39104. 38102. 72104. 93108. 67109. 26104. 57101. 67103. 40

103. 02103. 17102. 74103. 29104. 32104. 32

103. 37104. 21104. 18104. 09104. 34103. 88103. 80

gross weekly

Manufac-turing

i

$122. 51129. 51133. 73142. 44154. 69166. 06176. 40189. 51207. 60

208. 92210. 00210. 01211. 07214. 13215. 20

214. 49218. 83221. 80222. 86225. 03227. 21227. 29

earnings

Contractconstruction

Current dollars

$164. 49181. 54195. 45211. 67222. 51235. 69249. 08265. 35284. 93

286. 71284. 83276. 79289. 45292. 09291. 69

281. 08297. 86293. 09296. 54297. 70295. 87295. 80

Retailtrade 6

3

$74. 9578. 6682. 4786. 6190. 9995.57

101. 04108. 22113. 96

113. 60114. 24115. 56115. 84116. 75118. 50

117. 55119. 25119. 94

(7)(7)(7)C7)

Percent ehjyear e

total pri1'agrict

Currentdollars

5. 86.44. 26.57.06.86. 26. 17.6

7.97. 06. 66.96.56.7

5.67. 17.78. 37. 57.47.3

inge from aarlier,/ate non-iltural6

1967dollars

1.51. 0

— 1. 62. 23. 6, 5

-4.3-2.8

1.7

2.31.31.01.51. 51.8

. 41.01.21. 5.7.5.6

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manu-(facturing.

3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.

94-783°—-77 3

* Includes eating and drinking places.6 Based on unadjusted data.7 Data no longer available.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY

Period

1966196719681969....

19701971 .....1972 — -..1973 . .1974

19751976

1975: III iIII—IV

1976:1II—III......

. . * IV. — ..

1977:1 -II"....

1966— .1967—.1968 ....1969. ....

197019711972____19731974

1975—1976

1975: IIIIIIIIV

1976: I_II _IIIIV

1977:1II >

1 Output refers to1 Hours of all pehours of proprietorestablishment data8 Wages and sal*insurance and privand supplemental

OutF

Totalprivatebusiness

98.0100. 0105. 1108. 3

107. 4110. 3117.6124 5121. 6

118. 8127. 1

115. 1117. 3120. 7121. 9

125. 1126. 9127. 8128. 5

131. 5134.0

5.52.05. 13.0

-.92.86.65.9

-2.3

-2.37.0

-11.47.7

12.33.9

10. 85.93. 12.0

9.67.9

gross domes!rsons in priis and unpaic

iries of empate benefit ppayments foi

ut1

Privatenon-farm

business

98. 1100. 0105.4108.6

107.4110. 3117.9125.0122. 0

118. 8127. 5

115.3117.2120. 8122. 0

125. 4127.4128.4128.8

131. 8134. 3

6.01.95.43.0

-1. 12.76.96.0

—2.4

-2.67.3

-11.46.7

12.74.2

11.76.53.21.3

9.57.8

ie product 01rate industrI family wor

oyees plusans. Also in<the self-emj

Hourspers


100. 3100. 0101. 7104.5

102. 8102. 3106. 0110. 1110.6

106. 1108.9

105. 7104.9105.9107.5

108.3108. 9109.0109. 5

110.4113.0

Pereei

2.3-.31.72.7

-1.6-.43. 63.9.4

-4.12. 7

-12.5-2.7

3.95.9

3.02.6. 1

2.1

3.39.8

•iginatinginty engaged inkers. Estims

employers' celudes an estiloyed.

of aUons2

Privatenon-farm

business

1967 =

100. 0100. 0102. 1105.3

104.0103.7107. 6112. 2112. 7

108. 0111.4

107.9106.9107.7109. 7

111.0111.3111.4112. 2

113.4115.7

it change

3. 3-.02.13.2

-1.2-. 33.74. 3.4

-4. 13. 1

-12.3-3.5

2.97.6

4. 91.0.4

3.2

4.28. 2

he sector in 1production

ites based pr

ontributionsmate of wage

Output lof all p


100; quai

97.8100. 0103.3103.7

104.5107.8111.0113. 1110. 0

112.0116. 6

109. 0111.8114. 0113.5

115. 5116.5117. 3117. 3

119. 1118.5

; quarterly

3.22.33. 3.3

.73.22.91.9

-2.7

1.84.2

1.210.78.1

-1.8

7.63.2ao-.0

6.1-1.8

972 dollars,including

[marily on

for socialjs, salaries,

>er hourersons

Privatenon-farm

business

•terly dati

98. 1100. 0103.2103. 1

103. 3106. 3109. 5111.4108. 2

110.0114.4

106. 9109. 6112. 1111.2

113. 0114. 5115.3114. 8

116. 2116. 1

f data at

2.51.9& 2-.2

. 22.93.01.7

-2.8

1.64. 1

1.010.69.4

-3.2

6. 55.42.8

-1.8

5.0-.4

* Currentic produd

NOTE.—data; theyshown here

Data revSource: DC

Compeper 1

Totalpri-vate

business

i seasona

94.7100.0107.6115. 1

123.3131. 5138. 9150. 3164. 3

180. 2196.5

176.2179. 0181. 1184.7

190. 5194. 3198.6202. 7

208. 4211. 6

seasonal]

7.05. 67. 67.0

7.26.65.78.29.4

9.69. 1

12.96.74.88. 1

13. 18.39.08.6

11.76.3

; dollar gros

Percent ehstherefore n

ised beginnpartment c

nsationtour 3

Privatenon-farm

business

iHy adjust

94. 5100. 0107.31143

121. 9129.9137.4148. 1162.0

177. 6193. 1

173.2176. 2179. 2182.0

186. 9191. 1195. 2198.7

204. 3208. 0

y ad juste

6. 15. 87.36.5

6.76. 65. 87. 89. 4

9.68.7

11.87.26. 96. 4

11. 19.48,87.4

11.77.4

s domestic pi

inges are ffoiaay differ sH

ing 1974.f Labor, Bui

UnitCO

Totalpri-vate

business

ed

96.8100. 0104. 1111.0

118. 1121.9125.2132. 9149.4

160. 9168. 5

161. 7160. 2158. 9162.8

164.9166.9169.2172. 8

175. 1178.5

d annual

3.73.34 16.6

6.43.22.76.2

12.4

7. 74.7

11.5-3.6-3. 110. 1

5. 15.05.88.7

5.38.2

roduct divi<

n precedinghtly from

*eau of Lab

laborsts

Privatenon-farm

business

96.4100. 0103.9110.9

118. 1122.2125.5133.0149. 7

161.5168. 7

162.0160.7159. 8163.6

165. 4166.9169.3173. 1

175. 8179. 2

rates

3. 43.83.96.6

6.53.52.76.0

12. 6

7.94.4

10.7-3.0— 2. 3

9.9

4. 4a o

O

5.89.4

6.37.9

led by const*

g period andpercent chai

or Statistics.

Implicidefla

Totalpri-vate

business

97.2100. 0103. 9108.8

113.9118.9123. 2130s 3143.0

157. 8165. 4

154. 1156. 3159. 2161.4

162.6164. 6166.2168. 2

170,0173. 0

3.22.93.94.7

4.74.43.65.89.8

10. 34.8

12. 95.97.65. 8

3. 04.9404 8

447.2

mt dollar gr

are basedages based

t pricetor*

Privatenon-farm

business

96.8100. 0104 0108. 7

1140119.2122. 9128. 0141. 4

156. 8164 8

153.4155. 4157.9160. 1

161.8163.4165. 8168. 0

169. 5172.5

2.93.3404 5

49453. 14 1

10.5

10.95. 1

14.25.56.65.7

43405.95.5

3. 57.4

oss domes-

on originalon indexes

16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.5 percent in July, following increases of 0.7 percent in June and 0.9 percent in May.

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)160

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

120

100

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

w^^^C—

'"7"\,MINING

M i n

UTILITIES

1973 1974 1975 1976

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)100

1977

120

100 -

90

80

70

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

1973 1977 1973 1 1974 1975 1976 1977* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1971- - - _ _1972197319741975 _19761976: July___

Aug _ _Sept__OctNov__Dec___

1977: Jan___FebMarApr _ _MayJune v _ _July »

Total irprodi,

Index,1967=

100

100. 00109. 6119. 7129. 8129. 3117. 8129.8130.7131. 3130.8130. 4131.8133.1132. 1133. 2135. 2136. 2137. 4138. 3139. 0

tdustrialiction

Per-cent

changefromyear

earlier

1. 79. 28.4

— . 4-8.910.210.48.57. 16.76.77.05. 14. 65.56. 16. 06. 36.4

Indusl•Mi

Total

87.95108. 2118.9129. 8129. 4116. 3129.4131.0131.6130.7129.9131.9132. 8131.5132.9135.2136.0137. 4138. 3138. 8

jry produmufacturi

Dur-able

51. 98102. 4113. 7127. 1125. 7109. 3121.4124.2125. 1122.4121. 5123.8125. 2123. 0124.0126.8127.9129.3130. 6131.3

ction indng

Non-dur-able

35.97116.6126.5133.8134. 6126. 4141.0141. 1140.9142. 6142. 2143. 5143.7143. 7145. 7147.0147. 8149. 1149. 3149. 6

exes, 196'

Mining

6. 86109. 8113. 1114.7115.3112. 8114. 1112.5114. 4115.7116. 7116. 2116. 2113. 2116.5120. 2119.2120. 0122. 3119. 3

r=ioo

Utili-ties

5. 69130. 5139. 4145. 4143.7146. 0151. 7150. 8151. 3150. 1151.2154. 0155. 5161.5158. 8154. 2153. 1156. 4157. 7161. 3

Manuf

Federalsen

Totalmanu-factur-

ing

78. 083. 187.584.273.680. 180. 981. 180.479. 780. 881.280.280. 882. 182. 382. 983.383.4

aeturing (rate, p

Reservees

Mate-rials

83. 188. 092. 487. 773.680. 381. 281. 681. 080.380.380. 179. 180.081. 682.082. 783. 183. 0

capacity isrcent l

Com-merceseries 2

808386837781

80

81

83

itilization

Whar-ton

series 3

86.491.897. 193. 080. 487.4

88. 1

87.7

88, 3

90. 7

1 Output as percent of capacity.2 Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.s Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are av<quarterly data.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department ofCommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1969 _1970 _1971 „_---19721973 --197419751976.._.1976: July

Aug -_SeptOctNov _ >Dec

1977: JanFeb__MarApr _ _MayJune "July »

Total

47.82109.6105.3106. 3115. 7124.4125. 1118. 2127.3127.6128. 3127.4127.4129.8132. 1130.8131.8133.0134.3135.2136. 1136.9

Coi

Total

27.68109.8109. 0114. 7124.4131.5128.9124. 0136. 8136.8137. 5136.2136. 9139. 1142.0140.2141.0142.8143.3144.0144.4145. 3

Final p

isumer go

Durablegoods

7.89115.0106. 1118. 8133.8146.2135. 3121.4141.5141.8143. 7138. 4139.4143.7151. 2145. 1146. 1152. 4151.7152.4155.0157. 5

Proc

roducts

ods

Non-durablegoods

19.79107.7110. 1113. 1120. 6125. 6126.3125. 1134.9134.8134.9135.3135.8137. 1138.4138.3138.9139.0140.0140.7140.3140.4

.ucts

Equip

Total

20. 14109.3100.194.7

103.8114.5120. 0110. 2114,3114. 9115. 7115.2114.4116.9118.6117.8119.0119.7121.8123. 1124.5125. 6

>ment

Busi-ness

12. 68112.5107.0104. 1118. 0134. 2142.4128. 2136. 1136. 9137. 7137.5135.9140.2143.2142. 0143. 1144.5147.0148.8150.8152. 6

Interneproc

Total

12.89112.9112.9116. 7126. 5137. 2135. 3123. 1136.8137.6137. 8138.7138. 3138.8139.8141.8141.8141. 9142.7144.1145.4146.6

mediateucts

Con-structionsupplies

6.42112.3111. 0116.8128.4139. 8134.5116. 3132.0133. 1134. 1134.3134.0135. 7135.5136.1135.7136.4137. 4138. 9140.2141. 0

Ma-terials

39. 29112. 5109. 2111. 3122. 3133.9132.4115.5130. 5132. 2133.0132.5131.6131.9131. 9130. 7132.4135.5136.3137.8138.8139. 1

Sup-ple-

ment-ary

group:Energytotal

12.23111.1117.0119. 5125. 2128.3125.5125.5129. 0128. 4129. 0128.6128.6130. 7132.2133.0132.4132.0131.7132.8133.6135. 4

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1969197019711972197319741975__ _1976

1976: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarApr . „May .June »July 9

Primary

Total

6.67113.8106.6100.2112. 1126.7123. 196.4

ioao116.9118. 6114. 1109.9107.3102. 7

100.0100.4108.3112. 3116.8115.6112.2

r metals

Ironandsteel

4.21112.6104.796.1

107. 1122. 3119.895.8

104.4

115. 3116.2110.3105. 1103.195. 6

89.891. 397.9

104. 0111. 0109.3

Dt

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

5.9S107.9102.4103. 5112. 1124. 7124. 2109.9123.3

124. 6125. 8126.6123.5126.7128.2

125. 7126.0127.5127. 6128. 0130.2130.5

irable m<

Non-elec-tricalma-chin-ery

9. 15109. 3104.4100. 2116.0133. 7140. 1125. 1134.7

135. 0136. 4136.8134. 1137.5141.2

139. 5139.4140. 4142.5143.2144. 8146.4

anufactu

Elec-tricalma-chin-ery

8.05111. 9108. 1107.7122.2143. 1143.8116. 5131. 7

131.0135. 3133.7135.0135.8135. 6

134. 0137. 6137. 6139. 6141. 8143. 2143.9

res

Trans pequip

Total

9.27108.489.597.9

108.2118.3108.797.4

110.6

113. 3115. 0104.4104.7112. 7118.2

113. 5113. 4120.5119. 8120. 1123.3124,2

ortationment

Motorve-

hiclesand

parts

4.50116.592.3

118.6135.8148. 8128.2111. 1140. 7

148. 5150. 6130.2129.3145.8156.4

145. 5145.4161.2158. 1157.7162.9167.0

Lum-berand

prod-ucts

1. 64107.9105.6113.8120.8126.0116.2107.6125. 1

124.6128. 1128.7130.7129.0127. 5

132.7132. 2132. 1131.6133.0133. 1

Non

Ap-parelprod-ucts

3.31106. 7101.4104.7109.4117.3114.3107.6126. 1

125.6123.7122. 5126.4125.9128.0

123. 6125. 2123.5123. 8125.2

durable

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

4. 72107.4107.0107. 1112.7118.2118. 2113.3120.7

122.0120. 6120.6119.2119.3123. 1

124. 3122. 4124.3123.4124.4123.9124.6

manufac

Chem-icalsand

prod-ucts

7. 74118.4120. 4125. 9143.61545159.4147. 3169. 4

167.6170.4170.5170.6174,2173.5

172.0175. 1179.0180. 6182.0182.5

tures

Foods

8. 75106. 1108. 9112.8116. 8120.9124.0123.4132.0

131.8133. 4135.7134.7134.7134.3

135.5137. 1138.5139.9139. 8139. 5

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION

Period

1970___ _197119721973197419751976

1976: JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMav *June 9

Total newconstruc-

tionexpendi-

tures

94.9110.0124.1137. 9138.5134.3147.5

149.6145.8141.8145.2150.1153.8155.4148.4157. 1163. 3166. 1170.4171.0

Total

66.880. 193.9

105. 4100.293.6

109.5

109. 7107. 1103. 6107.4114.8119.0121.2116.4122. 6127.9130.0132.0132.2

Resic

Total 1

Bil

31.943.354.359.750.446.560.5

Seasonalli

61.059.254. 557.765.569.671. 166. 872.476.278.080.580. 1

Private

ential

Newhousing

units

lions of doll

24 335. 144.950.140.634.447.3

/ adjusted ar

45.846.347. 148.750.952.754. 852. 158.362.263.566.266.6

Commer-cial and

industrial

ars

16. 317.018.121. 723.820.819. 9

mual rates

19. 819.620. 120. 019.619.319.418.718.820.821. 120.921.9

Other

18.619.821.524 025.926.329.0

28.928.329. 029.729.730. 130.730.931. 530. 930.930.530.3

Federal,State,andlocal

2ai29.930.232.538.340.738.0

39.938. 738.237.935.334 934.332.034 535.436.238.438.8

Construction

Total valueindex

(1967=100)

123. 1145.4165.3179.5169. 7167.9194 1

Seasonallyadjusted

196217189203240210183203207207250317284

contracts 2

Commer-cial andindustrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

743727854

1,010840555602

Seasonallyadjustedannualrates

646627609582618631658643615809671758733

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alter-ations, not shown separately.

2 F. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index andbeginning 1971 for floor space.

Note.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable withlater data.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

19691970..1971—19721973197419751976

1976: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMay v

June *July *

Units

Total

1, 466. 81, 433. 62, 052. 22, 356. 62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 160. 41, 537. 5

1,4131,5301,7681,7151,7061,8891,3841,8022,0891, 8801,9371,9102,064

*

started, by

1 unit

810.6812.9

1, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0

888. 1892.2

1, 162. 4

1, 1291,1721,2541,2691,2361,3241,0061,4241,5031,4131,4551,4001,462

few private

type of stn

2-4units

85.084.8

120. 3141.3118.368. 164.085.9

Seasonally

7283

1069898

120103120113116120109113

housing unil

icture

5 or moreunits

571.2535.9780.9906.2795.0381.6204.3289.2

adjusted ac

212275408348372445275258473351362401489

}S

Unitsauthor-

ized

1, 323. 71, 351. 51, 924. 62, 218. 91, 819. 51, 074. 4

939.21, 280. 0

tnual rates

1,2291,3081,4811,4811,5831,5321,3331,5261, 6871, 6051, 6151,6781,630

Unitscompleted

1, 399. 01, 418. 41, 706. 11, 971. 52, 013. 81, 691. 71, 296. 81, 362. 1

1,3171,3801,4021,3391,3991,4441,4161,6371,7071,5401,5241,620

New priv

Homessold

448485656718620501544639

606656714728694808827893867780760797

ate homes

Homes forsale atend ofperiod l

222220287409450403380431

410410415420429431431434435441442444

Vacancyrate forrental

housingunits

(percent) *

5.55.35.55.65.86.26.05.6

5.7

5.3

5.1

5.3

1 Seasonally adjusted.8 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness inventories rose $2.6 billion in June and business sales were again about unchanged. According to theadvance survey, retail sales rose Vk percent in July following a decline of 1% percent in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLAR *̂ (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

350

300

250

200

150

100

TOTAL BUSINESSINVENTORIES

1973

+~r v* \

TOTAL BUSINESS

1974

SALES

1975 1976

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

RETAIL INVENTORIES

RATIO',* 1973 1974

RETAIL SALES

1975 1976 1977

1977 1973

SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCEj DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977


Period

1971 . _ _ _ _ _1972. ,1973 ........19741975 _ : _ _ _ _1976 i.......1976: June •_

JulyAug___._ _ _Sept..Oct __Nov _ _ .Dec _ _ _

1977; Jan_^_F e b _ _ _ _ _

"•• -<: M a r _ _ _ _ _ _Apr __ _

" ' ' May... __June * :July »

Total bL

Q | 7bales *

112, 323125, 269145, 297166,771172, 511192, J04193, 360193, 302194, 302193,868192, 353196, 288204, 140202, 160207, 541214, 642213, 596213, 821214, 175

isiness 1

Inven-tories 3

184,756198, 045227, 926278, 386275, 484299, 123289, 138290, 866293, 308296, 537298, 179298, 941299, 123301, 970303, 985307, 325309, 847313, 052315, 608

Whol

Q _ l _ _ J

kales *'

Millions

22, 32724, 86230, 40037, 34436,58340, 21240, 78040, 61640, 58141, 38140, 67640, 79641, 76741, 93143, 23343, 87944, 49145, 18244, 853

esale

Inven-tories 3

of doll

29, 69532, 81738, 30246,56445, 11550, 13148, 64548, 80549, 00649, 72349, 84750, 16750, 13.150,87251,65852, 54953, 06753, 24753, 437

jT'rk+ol j

1

ars, seas

34, 07137, 36541, 94344, 81548, 70254, 32453, 98353, 75454, 64354, 10054, 63455, 57357,89856, 66058, 17559, 52259, 46559, 18158, 43858, 741

Sales 2

Dur-able

goodsstores

onally a

10, 98512, 47214, 19013, 94315, 06017, 84717, 80317, 69918, 20817, 48117, 55918, 15719, 73019, 02419, 76420, 68720, 33320, 08819, 87719, 822

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

idjusted

23, 08624, 89327, 75430, 87233, 64236, 47636, 18036, 05536, 43536, 61937, 07537, 41638, 16837, 63638,41138, 8353.9, 13239, 09338, 56138, 919

tail

In

HTrti-ol

52, 57157, 15665, 22973, 85174, 67682, 40579, 37579, 91781, 11881,84881, 65881, 66082, 40583, 61683, 87885, 39786, 03387, 17688, 353

ventorieg

Dur-able

goodsstores

23, 86426, 05629,59334, 30134, 47438, 22435, 86336, 52337, 51537, 82237, 51837, 93338, 22438, 93138, 91239, 61339, 58140, 27940, 665

5 3

Non-durablegoodsstores

28, 70731, 10035, 63639, 55040, 20244, 18143, 51243, 39443, 60344, 02644, 14043, 72744, 18144, 68544, 96645, 78446, 45246, 89747, 688

Inventcrat

Totalbusi-ness l

1.611.521.461. 511.601.501.501.501.511.531. 551. 521.471.491.461.431.451.461.47

>ry-salesio 4

Retail

1.471.461.461.531.511.461.471.491.481. 511.491.471.421.481.441.431.451.471.51

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).2 Monthly average lor year and total for month.1 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthlysales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

20

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureaiof the Census).


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSIn June, manufacturers1 new orders were again unchanged while shipments rose 1.3 percent and inventories were up$1.2 billion. Preliminary estimates indicate new orders and shipments of durable goods manufacturers declined in July.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) •

40 3


120

100

80

60

40

_ NEW ORDERS

TOTAL

I! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II

1973

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

! 1 1 1 I ! 1 1 I 1 t

1974 1975

* . • • / « •^~ '̂C'*rt«*

1976

160

120

100

80

60

40

INVENTORIES

-J^\.«*^ mm A

1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 It 1 1

RATIO*2.20

DURABLE GOODS

1 1 1 I1 M 1 1 1 1 I 1 !

tNONDURABLE GOODS

1 1 1 1 i M 1 1 1

1977

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1.201973

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE,- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977


Period

1971197219731974197519761976: June-

July..Aug_.Sept—Oct...Nov..Dec.__

1977: Jan...Feb...Mar._Apr.. _May..June..July »_

Manufac

Total

55, 92563, 04272, 95484, 61287, 22698, 16898, 59798, 93299, 07898, 38797, 04399, 919

104, 475103, 569106, 133111, 241109, 640109, 458110,884

turers* shi

Durablegoods

29, 97334, 04239, 70444, 04343, 91250, 37650, 60651, 09051, 64850, 06049, 02951, 23855, 29553, 34154, 70358, 84956,76456, 71757, 77457, 148

pments1

Non-durablegoods

25, 95328, 99933, 25040,56943, 31347, 79247, 99047, 84247, 43048, 32848, 01448, 68149, 18050, 22851, 43052, 39252, 87652, 74153, 110

Manufact

Total

Millio102, 490108, 072124, 395157, 971155, 693166, 587161, 118162, 144163, 184164, 966166, 674167, 114166, 587167, 482168, 449169, 379170, 747172, 629173, 818

urers' inv

Durablegoods

ns of doll*66, 14970, 09881, 218

101, 780100, 310105, 729102, 429102, 856103, 282104, 117105, 589106, 128105, 729106, 562107, 222107, 685108, 190109, 154110, 421

entories 2

Non-durablegoods

irs, seasor

36,34137,97443, 17756, 19155,38260, 85858, 68959, 28859, 90260, 85061, 08560, 98660,85860, 92061, 22761, 69462, 55763, 47563, 397

Manu

Total

tally ad jus55, 93764, 24676, 21786, 98885, 65998, 49799, 13598, 81197, 55498, 47699, 006

100, 784106, 600105, 288106, 575111, 788111, 547111, 693111, 702

raeturers

Durabl

Total

sted

29, 95135, 14242, 88846, 57042, 16450, 68151, 24951, 18050, 38050, 06850, 75452, 23557, 04055, 03755, 13359, 16058, 65259, 17658, 55655, 956

' new ore

e goods

Capitalgoodsindus-tries,non-

defense

7, 5758,947

11, 16912, 65610, 89912, 82012, 60713, 77812, 69013, 46814, 12412, 73413, 83514, 62114, 25214, 56114, 67915, 00015, 71314, 354

lers1

Non-durablegoods

25,98629, 10433, 32940, 41843, 49547, 81647, 88647, 63147, 17448, 40948, 25248, 54949, 56050, 25151, 44252, 62852, 89552, 51753, 146

Manu-fac-

turers'unfilledorders 3

107, 656122, 362161, 766190, 271171, 438175, 453172, 059171, 938170, 414170, 503172, 468173, 333175, 453177, 179177, 623178, 167180, 065182, 301183, 125

Manu-fac-

turers'inven-tory —ship-mentsratio 4

1.83L67L581^66L801.641.63L641.651.681.721.671.591.621.591.52L561.58L57

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.* Book value, end of period.* End of period.* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipmentsfor month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21


PRICESWHOLESALE PRICESIn July, the wholesale price index rose 0.2 percent (fell 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Prices of farm products andprocessed foods and feeds declined 1.1 percent (2.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities priceswere up 0.6 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted).

INDEX, 1967-100. (RATIO SCALE)

220

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)220

FARM PRODUCTS ANDPROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS !

120

100

120

100

1969 1977

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Period

196919701971 _ _ _ _ _19721973 .197419751976

1976: July.AugSeptOctNov.Dec___

1977: JanFebMarAprMayJune.July

1 Excludes crude foocleaf tobacco.

Allcom-modi-ties

106.5110.4114.0119. 1134. 7160. 1174. 9183. 0

184. 4183. 8184. 8185. 3185. 6187. 1188.0190. 0191.9194.3195. 2194. 4194. 8

Istufis and fe

Farmproducts

andprocessed

foodsand feeds

108.0111.7113. 9122. 4159. 1177. 4184.2183. 1

Unadjusted188. 1181. 7182.9179. 5178.3183. 9184. 8188. 4190.9195. 9196.8191. 5189.3

edstuffs, plant a

Indus-trial

commod-ities

106. 0110.0114. 1117. 9125. 9153.8171.5182. 4

182. 7183.8184. 8186. 3187. 1187.4188. 4189.9191.6193. 2194.2194. 6195. 8

nd animal fib

Farmpro-

ducts

109. 1111.0112.9125. 0176.3187. 7186.7191. 0

194.2187. 7189. 2188.2187. 1191.9194. 0198. 3203. 3210. 2205. 3191.3187.9

ers, oilseeds,

•D—rtJtTO-cessedfoodsandfeeds

107. 3112. 1114.5120. 8148. 1170. 9182. 6178. 0

180. 5175.9176.0174.9175.6178.8178. 6181. 9185.4190. 1193. 5190. 2185. 6

and So

Crudemate-rials 1

110.6118.9122. 7131. 1155.2219. 1225. 1249. 9

Seas252. 7254. 4253. 1262. 4271. 6265.9262.6273. 0279.3280. 1282. 4277.9277.8

nrce: Depart

Inter-mediatemate-rials 2

106. 1109.9114. 3118. 9128. 1159. 5178. 6189. 5

onally ad.189. 1190.3192.0193. 3194. 3195. 5196.3197.4199. 1200.3200.9201.4202.4

ment of Lab

Special §

Produc-er fin-ishedgoods

106.9112.0116.6119. 5123.5141. 0162. 5173.2

usted173. 1173.6174.5176.3177.0178.4179.2180. 1180.8181. 8182. 8183. 6184. 4

DI, Bureau ol

jroupings

Consunexc

Total

104.6107. 7111. 2113.5118.6138.6153. 1161.8

161. 5162.5163. 7164. 6165.5165. 8167.4167. 9169. 2170. 4171.2171. 9172. 3

Labor Stati

ier finishe3luding fo<

Durable

104.0106.9110.8113. 2115. 8126.3138.2144. 4

144. 2144. 9145. 7146. 5146. 8146. 9148. 0148. 8149.4150. 5151. 1151. 6152. 0

sties.

d goods:>ds

Non-durable

105. 0108.3111. 7113.6120. 5146. 8163. 0173.3

173. 1174. 2175. 6176 7178 0178. 4180. 3180. 7182. 5183. 7184. 6185. 6185. 9

2 Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials formanufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.

22food


CONSUMER PRICESIn July, the consumer price index rose 0.4 percent (also 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.5percent (0.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.1 percent (also 0.1 percent seasonallyadjusted) and services prices were up 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220

200

INDEX, 1967«100 (RATIO SCALE}.

120

100

- 120

100

1969 1970 T97! 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADYISiRS

[1967=100]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: July. _ _AugSept___GetNovDec

1977: JanFeb.___MarAprMayJuneJuly....

Allitems

109.8116. 3121. 3125.3133. 1147.7161. 2170.5

171. 1171. 9172. 6173. 3173.8174.3

175. 3177. 1178.2179.6180. 6181.8182.6

Food

108.9114.9118.4123. 5141.4161. 7175.4180.8

Unac

182. 1182. 4181. 6181. 6181. 1181. 7

183.4187.7188. 6190. 9191. 7193. 6194. 6

Com-modi-tieslessfood

108. 1112.5116.8119. 4123.5136.6149. 1156. 6

justed

157. 1158.0158.9159. 6160. 3160. 6

160. 6161. 6162. 6163. 6164. 7165. 4165.6

Serv-ices

112.5121.6128. 4133. 3139. 1152. 1166.6180.4

180.7181. 8183. 2184. 1185.1185. 8

187.5188.7190. 0191. 3192. 3193.7195. 3

Allcom-modi-ties

108.4113.5117.4120. 9129.9145. 5158.4165.2

165.5166. 2166.6167. 1167. 4168.0

169.4171.4172. 2173.6174.5175.3175.5

All

108.9114.9118.4123. 5141.4161. 7175.4180.8

181.4181.8181.9182.2181.7181.9

183.5187. 1188. 2191.0192. 4193. 9194.0

Food

Foodat

home

108.2113.7116.4121. 6141.4162.4175.8179.5

179.9180.2180. 1180. 3179.6179.7

181.3185.4186.4189.3190. 7192. 1191.9

Foodawayfromhome

111. 6119.9126. 1131. 1141. 4159. 4174.3186. 1

Seasonal

187.2188.0188.7189.0189. 5190.4

192.0194.0195. 4197. 5199. 5201.2202. 1

Comr

All

108. 1112.5116.8119. 4123. 5136. 6149. 1156. 6

ly adjust

156.9157.8158. 3159. 0159.6160.5

161.6162. 7163.4164. 0164. 7165. 1165. 3

aodities le

Dur-able

107.0111.8116. 5118. 9121.9130.6145. 5154. 3

ed

155.0155. 6156. 1156.6157.3158. 4

159. 9161.4162.4163.2163.5163.4163.4

ss food

Non-dur-able

108.8113. 1117. 0119.8124. 8140.9151.7158. 3

158.4159. 3159. 9160. 6161. 3162.0

162.8163. 7164. 2164. 7165. 6166. 3166. 8

Serv-ices

112.5121.6128. 4133.3139. 1152. 1166.6180.4

181. 1182. 2183.2184. 0184.8185.5

187.2188.4189. 9191. 4192. 7194. 2195. 7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23


CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES

Period

1968196919701971-19721973197419751976 —1976: July.

Aug..Sept.Oct..Nov.Dec..

1977: Jan..Feb,_Mar_Apr._May.June-July.

Percenperio

Allcom-modi-ties

2.84.82.24.16.3

15.420.94.24.7.4

-.2.7. 5. 6. 6. 5.9

1. 11. 1.4

-. 7I

t changed; season

Farmprod-ucts

4.48.4

-4.7& i

18. 736. 1

-1.95. 5

-1. 1-.6

-a 3.8

-.5-.62.61.12.22. 53.4

-2.3-6.8-1.8

from preally adjus

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

3.06.8.8

4.71L620.320.9-as-1. 1-.6

-2.51

- 64

1 8- 11 81 92 51 8

-1 7-2.4

cedingsted V

Indus-trialcom-modi-ties

2.73.9ae3.4a4

10.725.66.06.4

6689635686435

Percent clseasons

Allcom-modi-ties

4. 52.93.54.07.27.17.18.4

10. 213. 110. 93.6

-1. 2

lange froilly adjus

Farmprod-ucts

-1.6-12. 9-11. 9-11.8-1. 3

5.812.926.226. 037. 814. 9

-21. 6-36. 1

m 3 mont]sted annul

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

2.2-11. 0-11. 8-11. 8

-.76.58.7

15. 115. 628. 428. 110.8

-9.1

is earlier ;U rates


5.47.38.09. 39.57.65.95.97.98. 57.65. 349

Percent cseason

Allcom-modi-ties

4.2425. 14 25.05.35.57.88.6

10.19.76.85.7

jhange froally adjus

Farmprod-ucts

0.9-2.2

2.0-6.9-7.3-3. 5-. 211.615.524720.4-. 6

-6.2

m 6 montted annua

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

2. 0— 7

-1.3-5. 1-6.0-3.1-2. 1

6.911.018. 121.413.28.0

as earlier ;1 rates


485. 6a47.48.47.87.67.77. 77.26.76.66.7

1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

Period

196819691970 _1971 -.19721973 _-.197419751976

1976: July...Aug.._Sept...Oct__.NovDec.__

1977: Jan...Feb_.._Mar...AprMay..June..July..

1 Annual change

Percerperio

Allitems

4 76. 15.53.43.48.8

12. 27.048

.5

. 5

. 3

. 3

. 3

. 4

.81.0. 6. 8. 6.6.4

>s are from D

it changed; seasor

Food

437.22.2434. 7

20. 112. 26.5. 6

. 1

.2

. 1

. 22

. 1

. 92.0.6

1. 5. 7.8. 1

ecembei to

j from prelally adju

Com-mod-itieslessfood

3.74 5482.32.55. 0

13.26. 25. 1

463446

7744421

December (u

cedingsted1

Serv-ices

6. 17.48.24 13.66.2

11.38. 17.3

765444

9688788

inadjusted).

Percent cseason?

Allitems

6.35. 55. 34 84.042

6. 19. 1

10. 09.98.48. 1& 4

aange frcilly adju

Food

452.21.61.8

-. 2. 0

2.912.414 617.411. 812.76.4

Boui

>m 3 montsted annu


6. 15.85. 55.5465.7

6.78.07.46. 15.042a2

>ee; Departm

tis earlier;al rates

Serv-ices

7.47.67.56.65.85. 1

7.18.09.89. 39.49.49.3

em of Labor

Percent cseasons

Allitems

475.55.75. 54848

5.56.57. 18.08.79.0&1

Bureau of L

lange frcdly adju

Food

0.32. 63. 83. 11.0. 8

2.35.97.09. 9

12. 113.611.8

abor Statis

>m 6 montsted annu


495.45.55. 85. 25.6

6. 16.36.56.46. 55.846

Lies.

hs earlier;al rates

Serv-ices

7.67.47.07. 06.76.3

6. 96.97.48. 28.79. 69.3

24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers fell 2 percent in the month ended July 15. Contributing most to the decline were lowerprices for soybeans, all grains and hay, oranges, and tobacco. Partially offsetting were higher prices for hogsf cattle,eggs, and broilers. Prices paid by farmers were % percent lower than their June 15 level.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCAL£J

PRICES RECEIVED(AU FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,

TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

70 F

601969 I 1970 I 1971 ' 1972 1973 1974

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, OH 1910-14=100 BASE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE

1975 1976 » 1977


Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: July 15Aug 15Sept 15Oct 15Nov 15Dec 15

1977: Jan 15Feb 15Mar 15Apr 15___May 15June 15 _July 15

Prices ]

All farmproducts

107110113125179192185186

194186186178173178

183187190191194184180

received by

Crops

97100108114175224201197

214201204195186190

198203211214214198181

farmers

Livestockand

products

Index, 1(

117118118136183165172177

179175172165162169

170174171172176173179

PricesAll items,interest,taxes, andwage rates

6̂7 = 100

108112118125144164180192

194193193192192193

198200201204204204203

paid by far

Familylivingitems

109114118123133151166176

177177178179180181

182(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)

mers

Produc-tionitems

104108113121146166182193

196194194192191193

196199201204205203201

Parity

Actual

7372717491867671

747171686668

68696969706765

ratio l

Adjusted 2

7977

757994877672

\ 747272696768

69707070706766

1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,interest, taxes, and wage rates on 191t>14»=100 base.

« The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly tofarmers.

3 Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitutedin calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSSTOCK

Mi grew at an annual rate of almost 20 percent in July, following a modest rise in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200 200

1969

*SeASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCEi BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1972: Dec...1973: Dec...1974: Dec...1975: Dec...1976: Dec...1976: July..

Aug —SeptOct___Nov..Dec...

1977: Jan___Feb...Mar..Apr...May-.June..July.

Over

M1

255. 3270.5283. 1294. 8312.4305. 0306. 5306.9310.4310.4312. 4313.8314. 0315.4320. 5320.7321.9326.8

all measi

M2

525. 3571.4612.4664.3740. 3705.2710. 4716. 3725.9732. 3740. 3746. 3750.7756. 1764. 6767.6772.8783.5

ires *

M3

844.5919.6981. 5

1, 092. 61, 237. 11, 168. 81, 180. 81, 193. 91, 210. 71, 223. 41, 237. 11, 248. 91, 258. 21, 268. 11, 281. 21, 289. 01, 299. 51, 316. 8

Cur-rency

56.961.567.873.780.578. 178.679.279.880.280.581. 181. 882. 283. 183.684.085.1

Deposi

Demand

198.4209. 0215. 3221.0231. 9226.9227. 9227. 7230.6230.2231. 9232. 7232. 1233.2237.4237. 1238. 0241. 7

CompoE

ts at coi

Tim

Total

313.5363. 9418.3451. 7491. 1469. 0468. 9472. 5477.8484.2491. 1495.6500.0502. 8505. 7509.2514.8519. 5

tents anc

tnmereia

e and sa

LargeCDs

43.563. 089.082. 163. 368.965.063. 162. 362.263.363. 163.362. 261.662. 363.962.8

[ related i

banks

vings

Other

270. 0300. 9329.3369. 6427.9400. 1403.9409.4415. 5422. 0427.9432. 5436. 7440. 6444. 1446.9450. 9456.7

;ems

Depositsat

nonbankthrift

institu-tions

319. 3348. 1369. 1428. 3496.8463. 6470.5477.6484.8491. 0496. 8502. 6507. 5512. 1516. 6521. 4526.7533.2

U.S. Gov-ernmentdemanddeposits

(unadjust-ed)

7.46. 34. 94. 14.73.53.75.04.04.24.74.24.44. 55. 63. 85.23.9

Perchai

Mi

9.26. 04. 74. 16.06. 76. 66. 05. 84. 66.25.95. 05. 66. 66. 76.28.5

centige *

M2

11.48.87. 28. 5

11.410.79. 7

10. 110. 510. 812.412. 011. 711.410.99. 99.0

10.21 MI is currency plus demand deposits; Mj is MI plus time deposits at com-

mercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plusdeposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arefrom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate,

: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve system.


PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS—NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1970: Dec1971: Dec1972: Dec1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec1976: Dec

1976: JulyAugSeptGetNovDec

1977: JanFebMarApr _ _MayJuneJuly »

Totalliquidassets

769.5852. 5967.9

1, 079. 51, 166. 21, 289. 71, 425. 5

1, 368. 81, 378. 51, 388. 21, 404 01, 414. 81, 425. 5

1, 440. 21, 454. 51, 464. 31, 478. 31, 487. 4i, 5oa ii, sia o

Total

632.4718.7817.0887.4944.5

1, 053. 31, 192. 1

1, 129. 11, 141. 31, 153. 21, 168. 91, 180. 01, 192. 1

1, 205. 51, 214. 31, 223. 61, 237. 11, 244. 11, 253. 41, 269. 6

Cum

Cur-rency

49. 152. 656.961. 567.873.780.5

78.178.679.279.880.280.5

81. 181.882.283.183. 684085. 1

sncy and <

Demanddeposits

151. 8161. 5176.5183. 3186.5190.7196.8

195.6196.3195. 5197.8196.2196.8

198.9197.8198.5203.3202.3202.4205.7

ieposits

Time d

Com-mercialbanks

198.9233. 62644294 4321. 1360.6418.1

391.8395.9401.0406.5412.6418.1

422.9427.1430.7434 1436.8440.3445.7

eposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-tions

232.7271.1319. 3348. 1369.1428.3496.8

463.6470. 5477.64848491. 0496.8

502.6507.5512. 1516.6521.4526.7533.2

U.S. TJsecui

Savingsbonds

52.054 357. 560.463.367.371.9

69.770.270.871.171.571.9

72.372.773.073.473.8742746

reasuryities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

41.931.734 543.247.466.366.9

71.471.469.769.769.566.9

67.971.872. 172. 373.073.67ae

Nego-tiablecertifi-

cates ofdeposit

21.827.636.254070.760.0449

50.346. 745.344844 3449

44 344643.242.442.844643.7

Otherprivatemoneymarketinstru-ments

21.420.222.734540.442.849.7

48.248.849.249.549.549.7

50.251. 152.353. 153. 8543544

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1977: JanFebMar.AprMayJune

Instalm

Total 1

109, 146112, 296123, 826137. 117157, 863157, 200164, 169193, 328

15, 98915, 79616, 11816, 42015, 84416, 71217, 677

17, 07217, 41818, 35118, 60918, 32218, 613

ent credit e:

Auto-mobile

32, 55330, 09435, 82042, 70048, 39945, 42951, 41362, 988

5, 2455,0975,2045,2984,8345,3125,869

5,4405,7476,1356,0375,9735,978

^tended

Bankcreditcards

4,3986,7688,377

10, 39013, 86317, 09820, 42825, 862

2,1052,1852,2092,2112,2662,2602,297

2, 1662,3842,3812,5472,5892,604

InstalnM

Total *

99, 786107, 444113, 784121, 926138, 156147, 920156, 665172, 795

14, 45414, 34914, 58914, 58914, 75315, 07715, 236

15, 08215, 59415, 50315, 84015, 80316, 331

mt credit He

Auto-mobile

29, 97430, 44031, 61437, 18842, 64244, 92948, 40652, 750

4,4564,3894,4514,5324,5004,6304,667

4,7084,7924,8094,8824,7855,080

piidated

Bankcreditcards

3,0665,6157,6799,472

12, 43315, 65519, 20824, 012

2,0032,0022,0922,0072,0952,1482,228

2, 1762,1982,1362,2882,4162,385

Net change

Total i

9,3604,852

10, 04315, 19119, 7079,2807,504

20, 533

1,5341,4471,5281,8311,0911,6342,442

1,9901,8242,8482,7702,5192,282

in amount

Auto-mobile

2,579-3474,2075,5125,758

5003,007

10, 238

789707753766334682

1,201

732955

1,3261,1551,188

898

outstanding

Bankcreditcards

1T3321,153

699918

1,4301,4431,2201,850

10218411720317111269

-10186245259173219

i Includes some items not shown separately. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1970.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System;

27


BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVESBusiness loans at commercial banks rose at an annual rate of 8.6 percent in July after increasing at a rate of 16.6percent in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS "(RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

INVESTMENT INUS. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

40 401969

*"SEASONALIY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1969197019711972____197319741975___1976

1976: JulyAugSept.OctNov _Dec

1977: Jan"Feb*Mar *Apr *>May *_June v _ _July"

Totalloansand

invest-ments

401. 7435.5485. 7558. 0633.4

4 690. 4721.1784*4

751. 4758. 0762.9771. 6778. 8784.4

786. 6796.4803.0812.4819.4825. 5831. 8

Allc

L(

Total ex-cludinginter-bank279.4292.0320.9378.9449. 0500.2496. 9538.9

512. 1516. 0520.8529.6533. 1538.9

540.9545.4551. 0557.7562. 1567.0574. 5

ommercial b

?ans

Commer-cial and

industrial

105. 7110. 0116. 1130.2156.4183.3176.0

6 179. 5

172.8173.1174. 1176.8179. 0179. 5

179. 8181. 2182. 9184. 9185. 9188. 3189. 6

anks l

Investn

U.S. Gov-ernmentsecurities

51.257. 860.662.654.550.479.497.393.295.694.994.495.497.396.9

101.5103.6102.8104. 6105.3102.9

lents

Othersecu-rities

71.185.7

104.2116.5129.9139.8144.8148.2

146.1146.4147.2147.6150. 3148.2

148. 8149. 5148.4151.9152. 7153.2154.4

I

Total

27. 9429. 1231.2231.4134.9436.6034. 7334. 95

34.3434.5134.3434.5134. 8534. 95

34. 7834. 4034.3134. 6834. 7234. 8635. 36

All me

Reserves 2 3

Non-borrowed

26. 8228.7931. 1030. 3633.6435.8734. 603490

34.2134.4134.2734.4134. 7834. 90

34. 7134.3334.2034. 6134. 5234. 6035. 04

mber ban

Re-quired

27.6628.8731. 0431. 1234,6436.3434.4634.68

34.1134.3134. 1434.2934. 5934. 68

34. 5134.2034. 0934.4934. 5134.7135. 08 I

ksBorrowilions ofunadji

Total

1,086321107

1,0491,298

70312762

12310475668462

6179

11073

200262336

Qgs (mil-dollars,isted) 2

Sea-sonal

41321312

242831322112

8121314315560

1 Data are for end of period.2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.s Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentageswith no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.4 During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to

28

a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank;* Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 81,1976; ISource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


Period

197019711972 „19731974197519761975: I ..

IIIIIIV

1976: IIII I I_____IV

1977: I".

Total

105. 1129.0154 0181. 7183. 0145. 5211.583. 5

130.7171.0196.7199. 3205. 5204.8236.6232. 6

Inter-nal1

58.968.680.883.877.6

103.4121.883. 5

101. 5113.61149120. 6121. 3126.0119.5118.6

Total

46.260.473.297. 8

105. 442. 189.7

: 029.257.481.878.784 278.8

117. 1114 0

Sources

Credi

Total

41. 546.458.872.983. 137. 156.635. 032. 131. 150.046.851. 950.777.280.6

External

t market

Long-term 2

32. 641.641.437. 439. 649. 846. 652. 954437.954048.241. 047.250.237. 9

'unds

Short-term 3

8.94.7

17. 335. 543. 5

-12. 89.9

-18. 0-22. 2-6.8-40-1.410.83.5

26. 942.8

Other

4814 014 425. 022. 25.0

33.2-35. 0-2.926.331.731. 932.428. 140.033.4

Total

96. 1115. 1137. 5165.5169. 9130. 9196. 668.6

115. 3157. 9182.2187.4190.4188.7219. 5216. 1

Uses

Pur-chase

ofphysi-

calassets 4

80.686. 2

101.0124.4134695. 7

137. 689.880. 9

106.8105. 5129. 5139. 1145.0136. 9142. 9

In-crease

infinan-

cialassets

15.428.836. 541. 135. 335.259.0

-21.234 451. 176. 757.951. 343.782.673.2

Dis-crep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

9.013.916.416. 113. 114 515. 014 915.413.214 611.915.116.017. 116. 5

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.

2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.* Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,

and Government loams.

< Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and min-eral rights.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars]

End ofperiod

197019711972197319741975-___ _1976__

1975: I—II__.III..IV___

1976: III —I I I__IV__-

1977: I

Total

492. 3529. 6573.5643. 3712.2731.6816.8

698. 4703. 2716.5731. 6

753.5775. 4791. 8816.8

845. 3

Cashon

handandin

banks *

50.253. 357.561. 662. 768. 177.0

60.663. 765. 668. 1

68. 470. 871.177. 0

75. 0

Ci

U.S.Gov-ern-ment

securi-ties2

7.711.09.3

11. 011. 719. 426.4

12. 112. 714 319.4

21. 723.323.926.4

27. 3

irrent ass€

Receiv-ablesfromU.S.Gov-ern-

ment 3

423. 53.43.53.53. 64 33.23. 33. 33.6

3. 63. 74.34 3

46

its

Notesandac-

countsreceiv-

able

201.9217. 6240.0266. 1289. 72946323.9

281.9284.8294 7294 6

307. 3318. 1324. 2323. 9

342. 0

In-ven-tories

193. 3200. 4215. 2246.7288.0285. 8315. 4

285. 2281. 4279.6285. 8

288.8295. 6302. 1315.4

322. 1

Othercur-rentas-

sets *

35. 043.848. 154 456. 660. 069. 855. 457.359. 060. 0

63.663.966. 369.8

743

Total

3049326. 0352. 2401. 0450.6457. 5499. 9

438. 0434 2444 7457. 5

465. 9475. 9484 1499. 9

516. 6

Cun

Ad-vances

andpre-pay-

ments,U.S.Gov-ern-

ment s

6.6494 04 35.26. 47. 0

5.35. 86. 26.4

6. 46. 87.07. 0

6.8

rent liab

Notesandac-

countspay-able

204 7215.6230.4261. 6287. 5281, 6295.9

271.2270. 1273. 4281.6

280. 5287. 02847295. 9

302. 2

ilities

Fed-eralin-

cometax

liabili-ties

10.013. 115. 118. 123. 220. 726.821. 817.719. 420. 7

23. 922. 024. 926.8

28. 6

Othercur-rentlia-bili-ties 5

83. 692.4

102.6117.0134 8148. 8170.2

139.8140. 6145. 6148.8

155. 0160. 1167.5170.2

179.0

Network-ingcapi-tal

187.4203.6221. 3242. 3261.5274 1316. 9260.4269. 0271.8274 1

287. 6299. 4307.7316. 9

328. 7

1 Includes time certificates of deposit.2 Includes Federal agency issues.8 Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not includeamounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising fromsubcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government.Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Governmentadvances offset against inventories on corporations' books.

< Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities andtime certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets.

s Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt du«In less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSShort-term interest rates rose about % percentage point from late July to late August but long-term rates were littlechanged.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

10

Tw

CORPORATE Aaa BdNDS(Mooors)

A_^a

— 1 DISCOUNTRATE

FEDERALRESERVE

BANK OFNEW YORK

M II 1 I 1 M 1 1 f | I f f f 1

1969

SOURCE: Slf TABLE BEIOW

1970 1971 1972

1|i ii I ; t i i i M. t.M.J 1.1 I \ \\

10

1974 1977


[Percent per annum]

Period

19711972...19731974...197519761976: Aug

Sept _OctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug

Week ended:1977: July 29

Aug 5121926

1 Kate on new issues •«2 Selected note and bos April 1953 to date, be< Weekly data are Wed* Average effective rat

U.S. Gove

3-monthTreasury

bills1

4.3484.0717.0417.8865.8384.9895. 1535.07549304.8104.3554. 5974. 6624.6134.5404.9425.0045. 1465.500

5. 1635.4245.3535. 6695.553

Titliin period,ad issues,nds due or callinesday figures.e for year; open]

rnment secu

3-5 yearissues 2

5.775.856.927.817. 556.947.046.846.506.355.966.496.696.736.586.766. 586. 67

6.776.866.906.97

ible 10 years an<

ng and closing i

rity yields

Taxablebonds *

5.745.636.306.996.986.786.796.706.656.626.396.687. 157.207. 147. 176.996.97

7.017.037. 047.00

3 after,

ate for month a

High-grade

municipalbonds

(Standard& Poor's)4

5.705.275. 186.096.89a 496.286.206.066.055.695.705.755.765.615. 645.535.50

5.505. 505.495.48

sfeeatpn

nd week. c

CorporateAaa

bonds(Moody's)

7.397.217.448.578.838.438.458.388.328.257.987.968.048. 108. 048.057.957.94

7. 968. 008.007.99

Effective rates and charges asend of 10 yearsor rates.:!nttrn.fiS' "Rnarr!

Primecom-

mercialpaper,4-6

months

5. 114.698. 159.876.335.355.475.455.225. 054.704. 744.824.874.875. 355.495.41

5.425.615.755. 95

[in the primarywell as contrac. Bates beginni

nf Omrpmnrs n

Discountrate

(N.Y.F.R.

Bank)*

4.884.506,457.836.255.50

5H-5K25K-5X25/2-5/2

5H-5tf5K-5K5#-5tf5K-5K5J4-5K5&-5tf5K-5M5K-5tf5K-5M

5Ji-5#5&-5K5#-5#5M-5M

market) on cont rate and assunng January 197

rthfi TiVfWnl TJ

Primerate

chargedby

banks 5

5.725.258.03

10.817.866.84

7K-77 -77 -6%6/2-6/2

6H-6#6&-6K6tf-6tf6&-6K6K-6K6M-6»6%-6%6%-6%

6%-6%6%-6%6Ji-6Ji6«-6Ji

ventional mort|led, on the aver3 not strictly cc

PtiATtTA R-trtjfOTn

New-home

mortgageyields

(FHLBB)«

7.747.607.958.929. 018.999.029.089.079.059. 109.058.998.958.948. 968.989.00

?ages, reflectingage, repayrnerj|mparable wit^

TPprfpretl TTnma

30 Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor'sCorporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices fell in August after edging up during June and July.

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 INDEX, DEC 3V1965=

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX

40

30 -

40

- 30

1969 1977

PERCENT20

15

PERCENT

—

»•

1 t I1969

1

"̂̂

f 1 11970

IARNINGS-PRICE*

t I I1971

RATIO ON COM(S&P)

\ .f 1 t

1972

WON STOCKS

-̂̂ |

f f f1973

X^V

J I-X^

r t f1974

^x^ 1

f T T1975

P— . "*

f f I1976

_

*

f f 11977

20

15

10

5

o

10

SOURCES: MEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD «. POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

197119721973 _1974197519761976: July

AugSeptGetNovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly

Week ended:1977: July 22

29Aug 5

12....19i

New York

Composite

54.2260.2957.4243.8445.7354.4655.6855. 1856. 2954.4354. 1756.3456. 2854.9354.6753.9253.9654.3054.94

55.6354. 5254. 0253. 7653. 53

Stock Exch

Industrial

57.9265.7363.0848.0850.5260.4462. 1161. 1462. 3560.0759.4561.5461. 2659.6559.5658.4758. 1358.4458. 90

59. 6958. 3057.7857. 5157. 33

Comr

ange indexe

Transpor-tation

44.3550.1737.7431.8931.1039.5742. 1240. 6340.3638.3739.2841.7741. 9340. 5940. 5241.5143.2543.2943. 52

44. 1642. 8641.8241.2940.73

non stock pi

3 (Dec. 31, 1

Utility

39.5338.4837.6929.7931. 5036.9736.4937. 5638.7738. 3338.8540. 6141. 1340.8640. 1840.2441. 1441.5942.44

42.7642.4442. 1641.9141. 52

•ices l

965=50) 2

Finance

70.3878.3570. 1249. 6747. 1452. 9454.0654.2254. 5252. 7453. 2557.4557.8655.6554.8454. 3054. 8055. 2957.29

58.2857.4756. 7956.7556.60

Dow-Jones

industrialaverage *

884.76950. 71923. 88759. 37802. 49974.92993. 20981. 63994. 37951. 95944. 58976. 86970. 62941. 77946. 11929. 10926. 31916. 56908. 20

919. 11898. 18888. 41878. 88867. 17

Standard& Poor'scomposite

index(1941-43=

10) *

98.29109. 20107. 4382.8586. 16

102. 01104. 20103. 29105. 45101. 89101. 19104. 66103. 81100. 96100. 5799. 0598.7699.29

100. 18

101. 5599.4898. 7098.2097.77

Common s(perc<

Dividend-

ratio

3.142.843.064.474.313.773.643.743.713.854.043.933. 994.214.374.474.574. 604.59

4.504.664. 684. 674.72

took yields3nt)a

Earnings-

ratio

5.415.507.12

11.599.158.90

9. 07

9.22

1 Averages of daily closing prices.8 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,£00) listed on the N YSE.* Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks.6 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing

prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.-—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand-ard & Poor's Corporation. 31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first 10 months of fiscal 1977 (October 1976-July 1977), there was a budget deficit of $41.5 billion. A yearearlier the deficit was $58.9 billion.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS500

400

300

200

50

0

-50

-100

WLLIONS OF DOLLARS500

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

OUTLAYS

RECEIPTS

SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)

JL JL I J_1969 1970 1971 1972

SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1973 1974

FISCAL YEARS

1975 1976 1977 1978

,400

300

200

50'

0

-50

-100


[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:1969 _1970197119721973197419751976Transition quarter _1977 (estimates):

Estimates, July 1977 2

Third Concurrent Resolution3.. _1978 (estimates) :

Estimates, July 1977 2 _First Concurrent Resolution4

October 1975- July 1976_._October 1976-July 1977 5

Receipts

187. 819&7188.4208. 6232.2264. 9281. 0299. 281. 7

358.3356.6

401.4396. 3

249.5290.5

Outlays

184. 5196. 6211. 4232.0247.1269. 6326. 1365. 794 6

406. 4409. 2

462. 9461. 0

308.5332.1

Surplus ordeficit (-)

3.2— 2. 8

-23. 0-23.4-14.8-4. 7

-45. 1-66.5-13. 0

-48. 1-52. 6

-61. 5-64.7

-58.9-41.5

Federal debt (

nPnfal 1

367. 1382.6409. 5437. 3468.4486. 2544. 1631. 9646. 4

727. 0

802. 4

635.3684.6

end of period)

Held bythe public

279.5284. 9304. 3323. 8343.0346. 1396.9480. 3498.3

571. 3

637. 1

485. 7534.0

1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.2 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management andBudget, July 1,1977. ^^

s Third Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1977, revised May

32

* First Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1978, May 17,1977* First 10 months of fiscal year 1977.Note.—See Note, p. 33.Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and

except as noted.


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 10 months of fiscal 1977 (October 1976-juIy 1977), budget receipts were $41.0 billion higher than a yearearlier and budget outlays, $23.6 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OTHER RECEIPTS „„„„„„„.„„„.. J1..-„———*

400

300

200

100

-

-

-

Av

OUTLAYS

11969

"̂"

NONDEFENSE *—-""*"**"**"***

.„••* --•"* NATIONAL DEFENSE

.. ^—1 1 ! ! V . " ' 1

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

FISCAL YEARS

^--

,«***** • . -

^^^-^^^— ^^^^ "̂̂

I I ' N1976 1977 1978 N

.400

300

200

100

SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:196919701971 __1972_19731974 _19751976 _Transition quarter.1977 L.1978 i _ _ _

October 1975- July 1976___October 1976-July 1977 2__

Total

187.8193. 7188. 4208.6232. 2264. 9281. 0299. 281.7

358. 3401. 4

249.5290.5

Rece

Indi-vidualincometaxes

87. 290.486.294.7

103. 2119. 0122. 4130.838.7

158. 3178. 2

108.3126. 7

ipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

36. 732. 826.832.236. 238. 640. 641.48.5

54. 659. 7

34.945.7

Other

63. 970. 575. 481. 792.8

107. 4118. 0127. 034.5

145.4163. 5

106.3118.2

Total

184.519a 6211. 4232. 0247. 1269.6326. 1365. 794. 6

406. 4462. 9

308.5332.1

Nationa

Total

80.279. 376. 877. 475. 178.686. 690. 022. 596.9

113.0

75. 279.3

(

. defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

77.977. 274. 575. 273.377.685. 088. 021. 996.0

109.3

73.879.8

)utlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

3.83.63. 13.93. 54. 85.95. 12. 06. 57. 1

5. 14. 3

Healthand

incomesecurity

49. 056. 170. 181. 491. 8

106.5136.3160.041.4

176. 5191. 1

136. 1146. 2

In-terest

15. 818.319. 620. 622. 828. 131.034. 6

7. 238. 041.7

30.832. 5

Other

35.739.341.848. 853.951.766.476.021.588.5

110.0

61.369. 7

1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1978 Budget, July 1,1977.2 First 10 months of fiscal year 1977.

income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability, formerly treatedas outlays, now classified as income tax refunds. Deficit figures axe not affected.

Note.—Figures beginning 1976 reflect recent definitional change: Earned Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISAccording to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, Federal receipts rose $6.0 billion (annual rate) andexpenditures $7.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $40.6 billion, $1.8 billion more than the deficit in the first quarter.

BILL!440

400

*5JtA360

•3 on

280

240

200

160

40

0

—40

— Aft

-120

ONS OF- DOLLAR

A I 1 1

SURPLUS

11 H mm ««»

DEFICIT

1969

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C

3

.̂M— •]

I I I

ueag

1970

)F COMMERCt

+ mm~~ **

\ \ \

iiii

1971

SEASONA

EXPENDITURES

X'++**t ^v

>— -^

! I Y

*I»|

1972

ilY ADJUSTED ANNU

,^ssy^^_A

RECEIPTS

I f !

1973CALENDAR YEARS

AL RATES

,

^^

t f t

~"i

1974

+/

\

|

|||w

^1

^

|

?7

^

f

\I

5

*+

*

\

<s

Ii

r-

^"

Ii

-^

^

\

1

1

/

*

\

?7

<

X

^

wvswy

6

:ou

^0

f

N<

I

*/

11

:IL c

1ILLIONS OF DOL

^+

t I I KN

11

1977

F ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LARS

440

OZrt

•JO A

280

240

200

'160

40

~A(\

80

-120


Period

Fiscal year:197419751976Calendar

year:19721973197419751976

1976: II I _ _ _III..IV.._

1977: III»_-

Total

271.8283. 6314. 1

227.5258. 3288. 6286.9332. 3

318.4329. 1337. 1344. 5

364. 9370.9

Federal C

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

122. 6127.3137.2

108.2114. 6131.1125.6147. 3

138. 0143. 9150.3157. 1

170.0168.6

•irovernm

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

43.742. 152.2

36.643. 045.943. 155.9

54.457. 056. 955. 1

55.459.6

ent receip

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

21.422. 124.2

20.021.221.724.023.4

22.723.223. 723.8

24.224.6

ts

Contri-butions

forsocial in-surance

84.292. 1

100.5

62. 879.489. 994.2

105.7

103.2105. 0106. 2108.4

115.4118.1

Total

278.8328.7372.3

244. 7265.0299.3357. 1386.3

378. 7375.3390.6400.4

403. 7411.5

I

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

104. 6117.9126.5

102. 1102.2111. 1123.3130. 1

127.6128.5130.2134.2

136.3143.6

^ederal C

Trans-fer pay-ments

104. 7134.2156.8

83. 295.8

117.6149. 1162. 0

160. 2157. 8163. 9166. 3

170. 7169.3

jovernm

Grants-in-aid

to Stateandlocal

govern-ments

41. 648.457.5

37. 540. 643.954.661. 0

58.556. 863. 165. 5

62. 063. 6

ent expe

Netinterest

paid

19.821.925.4

14.618.220.923.327.2

26.226.727. 328.5

28. 629.1

Qditures

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises

8.05.76. 1

7.88.25.36.75.9

6.25.56. 16.0

6. 15.9

Less:Wage

accrualslessdis-

burse-ments

-0.2-.4

.0

.5

. 0-. 5

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Surplusor

deficit(-),

nationalincome

andproduct

accounts

-7.0—45.0— 58.2

-17.3— 6. 7

— 10.7— 70.2-54.0

-60. 3— 46. 2— 53.5-55.9

— 38. 8-40.6

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967=100]

Period

19701971197219731974197519761976: Dee....1977: Jan_

Feb___Mar..AprMay..June...July...

In

UnitedStates

107.8109.6119. 7129. 8129. 3117. 8129.8133. 0132. 1133.2135.2136.2137.4138.3139.0

dustria

Can-ada

114. 1122. 0130.9142.7147.2140. 1147.2148.4152.0151.0151.4150.9152.3152.7

produc

Ja-pan

151. 6155.8167.0193. 1187.6167.4190. 0197.7198.3194.8199. 1200.8196.7

rfcion (sej

France

122127137147151138152154159156159156

isonally

Ger-many

131.3133. 3139.0149. 1146.9137. 9147.8147.3157. 7152.3152.4155.7152.3

adjuste

Italy

116.9116.8121.8133.7139.6126.8142. 5154.7152. 2152. 9153.2143.3147. 1

d)

UnitedKing-dom

110110114122120113116118119119119118120

UnitedStates

116.3121.3125.3133. 1147. 7161.2170.5174.3175.3177. 1178.2179.6180.6181.8182.6

Con

Can-ada

112.4115.6121. 1130. 3144. 5160.0172.0176.3177.9179.4181.3182. 4183.8185.1

Burner i

Japan

119. 6127. 1133.2148. 9182. 6204.7224. 4233.7236.6237.8238.9242.7245.0243.2242.7

>rices (ui

France

117. 1123.3130.8140.4159. 6178.2195.4203.5204.1205.5207.4210. 1212. 1

ladjustec

Ger-many

107.1112.7118. 9127. 2136. 1144.2150. 8152. 6154. 0154.9155. 5156.2156.9157.6157.4

1)

Italy

109. 1114.4121.0134. 1159. 6186.8218. 1238.6241.3243.4246.5249.6252.6251. 1

UnitedKing-dom

117.5128. 6137. 7150.4174.4216.7252.9270.0277. 1279.9282.6289.8292. 1292.0

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureauof Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthlyaverage :

19731974.

1974 _ ._197519761976: June...

July...AugSept...OctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMayJune

Totaldomes-tic andforeign

ex-ports

5,9028,159

8, 1598,9289,5679,7229, 9569, 7339,7969, 6989, 594

10, 397

9,5999,808

10, 0729,970

10, 39510, 112

Merch

]

Total * 2

F.

5,8118,045

8,0458,8039,427

andise e

Domestic

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

a.s. valu

1,0781,269

1,2691,3991,4361,3871,4591,4761,4421,6391,3981,379

1,2501,2651,4511,3501,3761,315

sports

j exports

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

e »

8951,317

1,3171,2661,3411,3501,3631,2831,4901,4691,4821,475

1,4091,5741,4821,6841,7891,575

Manu-fac-turedgoods

3,7285,294

5,2945,9136,4376,5526,6296,5496,4406,2856,4577,337

6,4596,4836,7456,4796,7946,700

Total2

5,7908,416

8,3548,010

10, 05610, 15410, 71710, 47710, 65110, 55510, 62311, 020

11, 26911, 67412, 45912, 59311, 61612, 932

Merc!

Ge

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

Custom

770892

F.a.s. '892827991

1,0411,036

972998986

1,0301, 142

1,1501,2611,2911,4681,3541,170

aandise i

neral im]

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

s value

1,1202,653

value 5

2,6722,7163,4563,4323,8173,7613,7473,7883,9053,808

3,9464,1114,9644,5723,9744,829

mports

sorts3

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7504,684

4,6024,2575,3985,3555,6175,5465,6655,5095,7245,832

5,8615,9206,0696,2446,3136,629

Total(c.i.f.

value) *

6,1319,000

9,0008,616

10, 79710, 95411, 50811, 25311, 44911, 30811, 38111, 789

12, 05912, 46313, 28313, 41912, 40413, 810

Mei

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)lessim-

ports(cus-toms

value)

112-257

-257852

-582-571— 850— 835— 965-925

-1, 124-720

-1,758-1,956-2, 484-2, 707-1,326-2, 934

•chandisebalance

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)lessim-

ports(f.a.s.)

— 195

— 195918

-490—432-761— 744-855-857

-1,029-623

-1,670-1,866-2, 387-2, 623-1,221-2, 820

trade

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports(c.i.f.)

-229-841

-841312

-1,230— 1,232-1,552-1,520-1,653-1,611-1,787-1,392

-2, 460-2, 655-3,212-3, 449-2, 009-3, 698

1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military sup-plies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.8 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.

* C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in theUnited States. Data for 1973 are estimates.

6 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exportsand at foreign port of exportation for imports.

Note.—Data revised for 1976, except detail for exports and imports, not yetavailable.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSThe U.S. merchandise trade balance fell in the second quarter to a deficit of $7.8 billion from $7.0 billion in thefirst quarter. Although exports rose modestly, imports registered a larger increase, primarily due to a rise in oilimports.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS10


1969 1970

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMEICE

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19701971197219731974197519761975: III...

IV.. _1976: I

!!__._IllIV...

1977: !»_._II »_..

Me

- Ex-ports

42, 46943, 31949, 38171, 41098, 306

107, 088114, 69526, 56227, 65726, 99928, 37929, 60729, 71029, 47630, 521

rchandise

Im-ports

-39,866-45, 579-55,797-70,499-103,673-98, 043-123,918-24, 483-25,431-28,324-29, 914-32,387— 33, 293-36,456-38,315

12

Netbal-ance

2,603-2, 260-6,416

911-5, 367

9, 045-9,223

2, 0792, 226

-1, 325-1, 535-2, 780-3, 583-6,980-7, 794

Milita

Directex-

pendi-tures

-4, 855-4, 819-4, 784-4, 629-5, 035-4, 795-4, 847- 1, 096-1, 198-1, 160- 1, 228-1,237-1,222-1,350

ry trans

Sales

1, 5011, 9261, 1632, 3422, 9523,9195, 213

9571,1641,0951, 1891,47213 4571,432

actions

Netbal-ance

-3, 355-2,893-3, 621-2,287-2, 083

-876366

-139-34—'65-3923523582

Net iiment i

Pri-vate 3

3,6055,5756,0747,806

11, 9789,377

13, 0412,4352,404"3,2103, 0253,4553,3514,042

ivest-ncome

, U.S.Gov-ern-

ment

-112-956

- 1, 888-3,010-3,234-3,423-3,233

-816-807-773-745-788-927-872

Net-traveland

trans-porta-tion

receipts

— 2, 023-2, 315-3, 028-3,086-3, 105-2, 552-2, 145

-604-684-669-337-458-681-863

Otherserv-ice?,net3

2, 1902, 5092,7893, 1853,9704, 5944,8881, 1801, 1841,1921,1761,2391,2791,419

Bal-anceon

goodsand

serv-ices 1

2, 912-340

-6,0883,5202, 160

16, 1643, 6994, 1354,2891, 5691, 545

899-315

-3, 172

Remit-tances,

pen-sions,and

otheruni-

lateraltrans-fers 1

- 3, 294-3, 701-3,854-3,887-7, 188-4, 612-5, 023-1,070-1,238- 1, 029-1, 015-1,936- 1, 045— 1, 145

Bal-anceon

cur-rentac-

count

-382-4, 041-9, 942

-367-5, 02811, 552

-1,3243,0653,051

540530

- 1, 037-1,360-4, 317

1 Excludes military grants.1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in toning and coverage.3 Fe*i and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct

investewots in the United States are excluded from net investment income andincluded in other services, net.

Note,—-Merchandise trade data for 1976 are as revised in July. Other data tobe revised later.


36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedU.S. assets abroad fell in the first quarter and foreign assets in the United States grew much more slowly than in 1976as year-end window-dressing and movements of funds in response to temporary interest rate incentives were re-versed. Foreign official assets in the United States continued to expand strongly.

BILUQNS OF DOLLARS30'I

20

10

-10

-20

-30


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET

A \ A

20

10

1969 1977

-10

-20

-30

SOURCE. DB>ARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1970_.-._..197119721973197419751976

1975:III___IV.. __

1976: IIIIII...IY.___

1977: I*II »

UJ[ineref

Total

-6, 164-9,299-9,929

-14, 666-27, 029-31, 548-42, 959

-3,081-11,836

-10,751-9,779-8,409

-14,022

451

3. assetsise/capita]

U.S.officialreserveassets l 2

2, 4772,348

32209

- 1, 434-607

-2, 530

-34289

-773-1,578

-407228

-3886

abroad, routflow

OtherU.S.

Govern-mentassets

-1,589-1,884-1, 568-2, 645

365-3,463-4, 213

745-977

-723-944

-1,405-1, 142

-895

let(-)]

U.S.privateassets 2

- 7, 052- 9, 763- 8, 392-12,230-25,960-27,478-36,216

- 1, 994-10,948

- 9, 254- 7, 257- 6, 597-13,108

1,734

Forei[inert

Total

5,92322, 44521, 12717, 75333, 61214, 33634, 520

2,4165,814

6,8567,3858, 201

12, 079

3, 067

gn assetsiase/capit*

Foreignass

Total

6,90726, 89510, 7056,299

10, 9816,960

17, 945

- 1, 6032,832

3,8474,0513, 0706,977

5,852

in the U.il inflow

officialets

Assets offoreignofficialreserveagencies

7,36227, 40510, 3225, 145

10, 2575,259

13, 007

-1,9772,328

2,3233,3081, 2516, 125

4, 8476, 521

S., net(+)]f

Otherforeignassets

— 984-4, 45010, 42211, 45422, 6317,376

16, 575

4, 0192,982

3,0093,3335, 1315,102

-2, 785

Alloca-tions

ofspecial

drawingrights(SDR)

867717710

Statidiscr€

TVi-l-nl1 otai(sum of

theitems

with signreversed)

—244-9,822-1,966-2, 720-1, 555

5,6609, 763

-2, 4002,971

3, 3551,8651, 2443,303

799

sticaljpancy

Ofwhich :

Seasonaladjust-ment

discrep-

-2, 4751, 316

717129

-2, 6221, 780

470

U.S.officialreserveassets,net1

(unad-justed,end ofperiod)

14, 48712, 16713, 15114, 37815, 88316, 22618, 747

16, 29116, 226

16, 94118, 47718, 94518, 747

19, 12019, 156

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), conrertible currencies, andthe U.S. reserre position in the IMF.

s Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of the Treasury.

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ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page

Gross National Product........~ -, -.. ~ «-* ~ ~. « ~ ._._._... 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars..;.5. _ ... _ .. , 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product _ , 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures. . . . ̂ , _._ _ ,. 3NonfinanciaJ Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits _ 3National Income.. ~ « „-, -« ~. ~ -,.. . .— 4 'Personal Consumption Expenditures. .;.. „. 4Sources of Personal Income.. .. 5Disposition of Personal Income.. ~ . . . . , _ « _ 6Farm Income... -.. .̂ _. ~, — ~- ̂ -. ~. .. ~. 7Corporate Profits.. ~ , , . ~ -. - 8Gross Private Domestic Investment. .̂ ._..-.. ._ 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment... . ~ ~ ̂ ̂ ~.-. ̂ ~ ._ ... 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force. ... _ ^ ., ~ ~ _* « -. ̂ ~ ~. ~ ~. .-. ~ -. -. .-. -. -. — 11Selected Unemployment Rates - -..-., . _. ~ .-. ~ — .-. ~ — — ~ ~ 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs.. ~ 13Nonagricultural Employment. ~., -.. .... -. _. ̂ . M M .̂ _ « « ̂ ^. ̂ .^ 14

\ Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries.. - 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries..•.•^__M__.-«.~..- 15Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy.. . ̂ _.. ^....._ 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization..;. -..-. _ _ .-. _ 17Industrial Production—^Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures.^ ^ 18New Construction. „„ -̂. -. _..-. -. -̂. ^. -. ^* ^.«-. ̂ — .-. 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates... ̂ ̂ ̂ ^ 19Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade.._.....- ....*- 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders. , 21

PRICESWholesale Prices.. ^ .- 22Consumer Prices. . _. ^. _ -.. ~.~ . . _. -. ̂ ..-.. ^.._. .-. 23Changes in Wholesale Prices-. - _, ~ . _ 24Changes in Consumer Prices._. -. ...-.._ ^.... ^. ._..-..-.._.._._. 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. ̂ ... _... _ 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock _ _ ._ ^. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ^ „ 26Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors... M ̂ M ̂ „ _ ̂ M M . . 27Consumer Instalment Credit. . -. _ .̂ ̂ . M »_ ^, ̂ « « -, ̂ . ̂ . ̂ . ̂ . M —. ̂ . « ̂ . _ _ ^. .̂ ^. ̂ ....... ̂ .......... ^ ^... 27Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves.... ̂ - .̂. « _ .̂ ^- .̂ ̂ . _ .̂ ̂ . »_.— ^..— .̂ ̂ .... _.._. ^........-...... ^. _........_. ^. „. . . 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .. _ _ .- 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations _ .-..-. M *~.._ .-....- 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields... _ ~.. _.. _ M ̂ M . ..-. M .-. ̂ .. . . 30Common Stock Prices and Yields..-. ._. _ ._.._.....-.........-. 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt. s;;.-. ̂ . ̂ . ̂ ~ _. ~ .̂ ̂ ̂ .. .-. , . 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ~ ̂ ^, ̂ _ M .̂ . 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis. ___ .~ .^ . -___ ^. _ .̂ *-. 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries. _*_•...-.....-..... -..-........................ 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. . . *_ ..-, _ ..... -. _.... ̂ ....... _ ».. ^-. ^.._..~....»................ _. ^. ̂ .............-.....-.».. 35U.S. International Transactions.. ̂ _ . ^ _ .̂ ^ ,. .̂. ̂ . ̂ . ^. ^. _. _. ̂ 36

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