economic indicators: december 1978
TRANSCRIPT
95tb Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
December 1978
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1978
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, ChairmanLLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESHENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN ]. MITCHELL (Maryland)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)GARRY BROWN (Michigan)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
SENATEJOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)
JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSCHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman
LYLE E. GRAMLEYWILLIAM D. NORDHAUS
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]JOINT RESOLUTION fS J. Res. SB]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23: 1949.
Charts draun by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copyor by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
iiDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $48.6 billion or 9.6 percent, both atannual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 2.6 percent from the second quarter level andthe implicit price deflator rose at a 6.9 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
1,400
1,200
1,0001971
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,0001979
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
I Billions of current dollars j quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977
1977:1II—III__IV__.
1978:1II —III—
Grossna-
tionalprod-uct
796.3868.5935.5982.4
1, 063. 41. 171. 11, 306. 61, 412. 91, 528. 81, 700. 11, 887. 2
1, 806. 81, 867. 01, 916. 81, 958. 1
1, 992. 02, 087. 52, 136. 1
Per-sona]con-
sump-tionex-
pend-itures
490.4535.9579.7618.8668.2733.0809.9889.6979. 1
1, 090. 21, 206. 5
1, 167. 71, 188. 61, 214. 51, 255. 2
1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 9
Grossprivatedomes-
ticinvest-ment
120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.0214.6190.9243.0297.8
272.5295.6309.7313.5
322.7345.4350. 1
Exporlgooc
Netex-
ports
492.31.83.91.6
-3.37. 16.0
20.47.4
-11.1
-8.5-5.9-7.0
-23.2
-24.1-5.5
-10.7
ts and imfIs and ser
Ex-ports
45.649.954.762.565.672.7
101.6137.9147. 3163.2175.5
170.9178.1180.8172. 1
181.7205.4210. 1
>orts ofvices
Im-ports
40.647.752.958.564.075.994.4
131.9126.9155.7186.6
179.4184.0187.8195.2
205.8210.9220. 8
Go^
Total
180. 2198.7207.9218.9233.7253. 1269.5302.7338.4359.5394.0
375.0388.8399.5412.5
416.7424.7439.8
yernment
Total
90.99&097.595.696.2
102. 1102.2111. 1123.1129.9145. 1
138.3142.9146.8152.2
151.5147.2154.0
purchasesservices
Federal
Na-tional
de-fense l
71.576.976.373.570.273.573.577.083.786.894.3
91.993.794.497. 1
97.998.699.6
of goods
Non-de-
fense
19.521.221.222. 126.028.628.734 139.443. 150.8
46.449.352.455. 1
53.648.654.5
and
Stateandlocal
89.3100.7110.4123.2137.5151. 0167.3191.5215.4229.6248.9
236.7245.9252.7260.3
265.2277.6285.8
Finalsales
786.2860.8926.2978.6
1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 28a 61, 404 01, 539. 61, 689. 91, 871. 6
1, 796. 51, 850. 01, 894 91, 945. 0
1, 975. 32, 067. 42, 122. 5
1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,shown on p. 33.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Period
19671968196919701971- — —197219731974197519761977
1977: 1—II—III—IV._.
1978: !___-II—III—
Grossnationalproduct
1, 007. 71, 051. 81, 078. 81, 075. 31, 107. 51, 171. 11, 235. 01, 217. 81, 202. 31, 271. 01, 332. 7
1, 306. 71,325.51, 343. 91, 354. 5
1, 354. 21, 382. 61, 391. 4
Per-sonalcon-sump-tion
expend-itures
603.2633.4655.4668.9691. 9733.0767.7760.7774.6819.4857.7
846.6849.5858.0876.6
873.5886.3895.1
Grossii
Non-resi-
dentialfixed
103.5108.0114.3110.0108.0116.8131.0130.6113.6118.9129.8
126.8129. 1130.8132.5
133.8140.5141.7
private dcavestment
Resi-dentialfixed
37.242.843.240.452.262.059.745.038.847.857.7
53.558.058.860.3
59.559.959.7
>mestie
Changein busi-ness in-vento-
ries
12.08.7
10.64.36.69.4
16.58.0
-9.86.78.9
5.810.012.27.5
12.312.79.0
Exia
KT^-fiNetexports
3.5— . 4
-1.31.4
-.6-3.3
7.615.922.615.49.5
11.211.012.53. 1
2.911.39.2
jorts of g<nd service
Exports
54.258.562.267. 167.972.787.493.090.095.998.2
97. 198.9
100.896.0
99. 1108.4109.0
>odsJS
Imports
50.758.963.565.768.575.979.977. 167.580.588.7
85.987.988.292.9
96.297. 199.7
Govern!good
Total
248.3259.2256. 7250.2249.4253. 1252. 5257. 7262.6262. 8269.2
262. 8267.9271.7274.5
272. 1271.9276.7
nent pures and ser
Federal
125.3128.3121.8110.7103.9102. 196. 695.896.596.6
101.6
98.7101.3102.9103.6
101.297. 1
100.4
bases ofvices
Stateandlocal
123. 1130.9134.9139. 5145.5151. 0155. 9161.8166. 1166.2167. 6
164. 1166.6168.8170.9
170.8174.8176.3
Finalsales
995.71, 043. 11, 068. 21, 071. 01, 100. 91, 161. 71, 218. 51, 209. 91, 212. 11, 264. 41, 323. 8
1, 300. 91, 315. 51, 331. 71, 347. 1
1, 341. 81, 369. 91, 382. 4
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100]
Period
1967196819691970_1971197219731974197519761977
1977:1IIIIIIV
1978:1IIIII
Grossnationalproduct
79.0282.5786.7291.3696.02
100. 00105. 80116.02127. 15133. 76141. 61
138. 27140. 86142. 63144. 56
147. 10150. 98153. 52
Persona
Total
81.384688.592.596.6
100. 0105.5116.9126. 4133. 1140.7
137.9139.9141.6143. 2
146.2149.3151.6
I consump
Durablegoods
87.490.793. 195.599.0
100.0101.6108.4117.71244129.5
128.4128.9129.5130. 9
133. 1135.7137.8
>tion expe
Non-durablegoods
81.985.389.493.696.6
100.0107.9123.8133.4138.2145.0
142.4144. 7145.7147.0
150.41544156.2
nditures
Services
78.882.086. 190.595.8
100.01047113. 6123.2131.6141.0
137.4139.7142.31444
147. 1149.9152.6
Grossdom
invesl
Nonres-idential
fixed
79.382.686.691.396. 4
100.0103.8115.3132.2138.4146.7
142.5145.0147.9151.2
153.6156.7160.6
privateesticbment
Resi-dentialfixed
77.080.787.790.6949
100.0110.8122.3132.8142. 5159.4
152.3157. 6160. 6166. 1
168.6175.7182.6
Exporimports
and sc
Exports
84085.387.993. 196.6
100.0116.2148.3163.6170. 1178.7
176. 1180.0179.4179.2
183.3189.4192.8
ts andof goodsjrvices
Imports
80. 180.983.389. 193.5
100.0118.2171.0188.0193.5210.3
208.9209.3212.9210.2
213.8217.2221.5
Governrchases
and s
Federal
72.676.480.086.492.6
100.0105.8115.9127. 51344142. 7
140. 1141. 1142.7146.9
149.6151. 5153.4
nent pur-of goodssrvices
Stateandlocal
72.576.981.988.3945
100.0107.3118.4129.7138. 1148.5
1443147.6149.7152.3
155.2158. 8162. 1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977
1977: IIIIIIIV
1978: IIIIII
Cur-rentdol-
5.89. 17.75.08.2
10. 111.68. 18.2
11.211.0
13.714.011. 18.9
7.120.69.6
Gross
Con-stant(1972)dol-lars
2.74. 42.6-.33.05.75.5
-1.4-1.3
5.74.9
7.35.95.73.2
-t8.72.6
national p
Im-plicitpricede-
flator
2.94.55.05.45. 14. 15.89.79.65.25.9
6. 07.75. 15.5
7.211.06.9
product
Chainpriceindex
3.04.45.05.35.04. 16.09.99.45. 66.2
6.67.34.66.5
7. 110.87.6
Fixed-weight-
edpriceindex(1972
weights)
3.04.35.05.24.94.06.0
10.29.35. 66.3
7.07.4476.8
7. 011.07.6
Cur-rentdol-
5.79. 17.85.08. 1
10. 111.57.98.5
11.010.9
13.313.911.29.5
6.720. 110. 2
Gross <
Con-stant(1972)dol-lars
2.74.42.6-.32.85.85.4
-1.3— 1. 1
5. 648
7. 15.85.83.5
^8.33.0
domestic \
Im-plicitpricede-
flator
3.04.55. 15.35. 14 15.79.39.75.25.8
5.77.75. 15.8
7. 110.97.0
>roduct
Chainpriceindex
3. 1445.05.35.04 15.99.69.45.76. 1
6.47.4456.7
7. 110.97.5
Fixed-weight-
edpriceindex(1972
weights)
3.0445.05.249405.99.99.35.76.3
6.87.54.67.0
7.011.07.6
NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes fromprevious quarter.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977
1977: III- —III..IV__.
1978: 1II....III*L_
Gross cprodi
nonfincorpcbusi
(billicdoll
Currentdollars
452.9498.4541.8560. 6602.5671. 0752.0808.8874 1988.5
1, 103. 2
1, 048. 51, 093. 31, 124 61, 146. 3
1, 161. 61, 233. 01, 260. 6
omesticict ofancial3rateness>ns ofars)
1972dollars
545.8581.6607.3600.6619.3671.0720.4695.0680.0730.0769.3
750.2766.9776.7783.6
783.6811.9814.9
C
Totalcostand
profit 2
0.830.857.892.933.973
1.0001. 0441. 1641.2851.3541.434
1.3981.4261.4481.463
1.4821. 5191.547
urrent-do
Capitalcon-
sumptionallow-anceswith
capitalcon-
sumptionadjust-ment
0.072.074.079.088. 094.093.095.116. 142.146. 150
. 149
. 149
. 151
. 152
. 155
. 153
. 158
.lar cost a
Indirectbusinesstaxes *
0.084.089.094. 103. 110. 110. 112. 123. 136. 136. 140
. 140
. 139
. 140
. 142
. 145
. 145
. 145
nd profit
Com-pen-
sationof
employ-ees
0.535. 553.589. 628.645.661.699.796.848.891.952
.932
.946
.955
.973
1.0081.0171.038
per unit
Netin-
terest
0.016.017.022.028.029.028.032.043. 045.042. 044
.043
.043
.044
.045
.046
. 045
.046
of outpu
Corpoinventc
capita
Total
0. 123. 124. 109.086.095. 107. 105.086. 113. 139. 148
. 134
. 148
. 158
. 151
.129
. 157
. 160
t (dollars)
rate profi3ry valuatal consuirtdjustmen
Profitstax
liability
0.051.058.055.045.048.050. 055. 061.060. 073.077
.075
.078
.076
.077
.071
.086
.086
i
bs withion andiptionts
Profitsaftertax4
0.072.066.055.041.046.057.050.024.053.066.071
.059
.070
.082
.074
.057
.071
.074
Outputper
hourof all
employ-ees
(1972dollars)
6.8737. 1057. 1397. 1327.3747.5957. 7887. 4897.7217. 9628.057
7.9918.0258. 1138. 103
8.0538. 1398. 166
Com-pen-
sationper
hourof all
employ-ees
(dollars)
3.6763.9294 198447847575.0245.4465.9586. 5507. 0937.667
7.4517.5907.7467.881
8. 1178.2818.471
1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporatemsiness in 1972 dollars.
3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial cor-porate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
8 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer paymentsless subsidies.
* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
196719681969 .19701971197219731974197519761977
1977: IIIIIIIV
1978:1IIIII
Na-tional
income
655.8714.4767.9798.4858. 1951.9
1, 064. 61, 136. 01, 215. 01, 359. 21, 515. 3
1, 447. 51, 499. 31, 537. 61, 576. 9
1, 603. 11, 688. 11, 728. 4
Com-pensa-tion of
em-ploy-ees l
471.9519.8571.4609.2650.3715. 1799.2875.8931. 1
1, 036. 81, 153. 4
1, 107. 91, 140. 51, 165. 81, 199. 7
1, 241. 01, 287. 81, 317. 1
Proprincom
inventortion anc
consuradjust
Farm
12. 112.013.913.914.318.032.025.423.518.420.2
19.420.016.525.1
21.924.025.0
letors*e withy valua-l capitalnptionments
Non-farm
48.951.452.351.253.458. 160.460. 963.570.279.5
76. 178.980.882.3
83. 186. 189.6
Rentalincomeof per-
withcapital
con-sump-tion
adjust-ment
19.418.618. 118. 620. 121.521. 621.422.422.522.5
22. 522.422.422.7
22.822.224. 3
Corporand
Total
79.385.881.467.977.292. 199. 183.695.9
127.0144.2
129.9143.7154.8148.2
132.6163.4165.2
ate profit*capital co
Profitsvaluaiand i
consum
Total
75.682. 177.966.476.989.697.286.5
107.9141. 4159. 1
144. 5158.5169.9163.5
148.7180. 6184.5
* with invnsumptio
> with invbion adjuswithout C2ption adji
Profitsbefore
tax
77.385.683.471.582.096.2
115.8126.9120.4155.9173.9
1648175. 1177.5178.3
172. 1205. 5205.4
entory vati adjustm
entorytmentipitalistment
Inven-tory
valua-tvirtn
adjust-ment
-1.7-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6
-18.6— 40.4-12.4-14.5-148
-20.3-16.6-7.7
-148
-23.5-249-20.9
iuationents
Capitalcon-
sump-tion
adjust-ment
3.73.73.51.5.3
2.51.9
-2.9— 12. 0-144-149
-146-148-15.0-15.3
-16. 1-17.2-19.3
Netinterest
24326.830.837.542.847.052.369.078.684395.4
91.793.797.399.0
101.71046107.4
i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1967196819691970....1971 .'__197219731974197519761977
1977:1IIIII....IV
1978:1IIIII™.
Totalpersonal
con-sumptionexpendi-
tures
490.4535.9579. 7618.8668.2733.0809.9889.6979. 1
1, 090. 21, 206. 5
1, 167. 71, 188. 61, 214. 51, 255. 2
1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 9
D
Totaldurablegoods l
69.680.085.584997. 1
111.2123.7122.0132.6156. 6178.4
173.2175.6177.4187.2
183.5197.8199.5
urable goo<
Motorvehicles
andparts
29. 735.837.734943.850.655.248.053.469.781.5
81.381.279.5840
84 192.589.8
Is
Furni-tureand
house-hold
ment
29.532.635.036.739.444850.754958.063.971.3
68.069.972.075.3
72. 176.578.9
Totalnon-
durablegoods 1
212.6230.4247.02647277.7299.3333.8376.3408.9442.6479.0
465.9473.6479.7496.9
501.4519.3531.7
Nondura
Food
109. 6118.3126. 1136.3140.6150.4168. 1189.8209.6225.8245.2
237.52445246.4252.6
257.7267.8272.0
ble goods
Clothingand
shoes
38.241.845.146.650.555. 161.365.370. 175.781.5
78.579.381.486.7
82.987.590.5
Gasolineand oil
17.018.420.422.023.424 927.836.439.542.846.5
46.146.246.047.5
48.349. 151.5
Services
208. 1225.6247.2269. 1293.4322.4352.3391.3437.5491.0549.2
528. 6539.4557.5571. 1
591.8605. 8625.8
Retailnew pacars (n
of ui
Do-mes-tics
7.68.68.57. 18.79.39.77.57. 18.69. 1
9.49.28.99.0
8.710.09.3
sales ofssengerlillionsaits)
Im-ports
0.81.01. 11.31.61.61.81.41.61.52. 1
1.92.32.02.0
2. 12. 12.0
1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $17.3 billion (annual rate) in November following revised increases of $22.5 billion in Octoberand $13.6 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $11.8 billion in November, compared with $16.5 billion inOctober. All other major types of income also rose in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,00)
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMWTS
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1978
COWNClt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19701971197219731974197519761977
1977: OctNovDec
1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly._._Aug_ —Sept._.Oct *___Nov *_ _
Totalpersonalincome
801.3859. 1942.5
1, 052. 41, 154 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 0
1, 577. 01, 592. 71, 609. 2
1, 615. 51, 625. 01, 646. 31, 669. 41, 682. 11, 695. 71, 719. 21, 731. 11, 744. 71, 767. 21, 784. 5
Wageand
salarydisburse-ments l
546.5579.4633.8701.3764.6805.9890. 1983. 6
1, 014. 11, 022. 31, 027. 3
1, 038. 31, 047. 41,066.61, 083. 91, 088. 41, 098. 41, 108. 21, 111.31, 120. 11, 136. 71, 148. 4
Otherlabor
income1 2
32.036.242. 048.755.665. 177.090.4
94.896. 197.3
98.7100.0101.3102.7104.0105.4106.7107.9109. 1110.4111.8
Proprietc
Farm
13.914.3iao32.025.423.518.420.2
22. 124.628.5
25.621. 518.622.024.825.324. 024. 926.027.328.7
)rs* income *
Nonfarm
51.253.458.160.460.963.570.279. 5
81.482.283.2
82.083.084.485.586. 186.788.490. 190.291.592.0
Rentalincome
ofpersons *
18.620. 121.521.621.422.422.522.5
22.422.622. 9
23.022.822.622. 322. 122. 124.324.324.224.324.4
Divi-dends
22.923.024627.831. 031.937.943.7
45. 145.548.3
46.847. 047.247.448. 049.049. 250. 350.751. 151.6
Personalinterestincome
64369.374684 1
103.0115.5126.3141.2
145.3145.5147.3
149.6151.4153.31548156. 5157.6159.6161. 9163. 6165.2166. 6
Transferpay-
ments 8
79.994 1
1041118.9140.8178.2193.9208.8
214. 2216.5217. 2
218. 1219.0220. 3219.7221. 3220.8229.0230. 8231.5232.2233. 1
Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance
28.030.834242.247.750. 555.561.0
62.462.662.8
66.567.068.068.969.069.670.370.470.871.572. 1
Non-farm
personalincome 8
780. 7838.0917.3
1, Oil. 91, 119. 31, 220. 81, 349. 51, 494. 4
1, 540. 11, 553. 11, 565. 5
1, 574 71, 588. 31, 612. 51, 631. 91, 641. 81, 654 71, 679. 41, 690. 31, 702. 61, 723. 61, 739. 2
1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsfrom compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribu-tions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.4 With capital consumption adjustment.
s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veteranspayments.
8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm otherlabor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,600
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
3,000
2,0001970 1971
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1978
- 3,000
2,000
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1969__ __1970 _ „1971 _19721973___ .1974__ „_1975__ . _1976_1977
1977: !____II—III-IY._
1978:I___»II...III__
Per-sonal
income
745.8SOL 3859. 1942.5
1, 052. 41, 154. 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 0
1, 470. 71, 508. 6L, 543. 71, 593. 0
1, 628. 91, 682. 41, 731. 7
T «O.CT •.Less:PAT
sonaltaxandnon-tax
pay-ments
Bil
115.4115.3116.3141.2150.8170.3168.8196.5226.0
222.7223.3224. 6233.3
237.3249. 1263.2
Equals:Dispos-
ableper-
sonalincome
llions of d
630.4685. 9 J
742.8801.3901. 79846
1, 086. 71, 184. 41, 303. 0
1, 248. 01, 285. 31, 319. 11, 359. 6
1, 391. 61, 433. 31, 468. 4
Less:Per-sonalout-lays l
ollars
595.3635.4685.5751.9831.3913.0
1, 003. 01, 116. 31, 236. 1
Seas
1, 195. 81, 217. 81, 244. 81? 285. 9
1, 309. 21, 357. 01, 392. 5
Equals:Per-sonalsaving
35. 150.657.349.470.371.783.668.066.9
onally ad;
52.267.574.373.7
82. 476. 376.0
Per cdispc
persona
Currentdollars
3, 1113,3483,5883,8374,2854,6465,0885,5046,009
usted ann
5,7725,9346,0776,250
6,3876,5666,712
japita>sable. income
1972dollars
Dol
3,5153,6193,7143,8374,0623,9734,0254, 1364,271
oial rates
4, 1854,2414,2934,365
4,3704,3994,428
Per capsonal cc
tion exp
Currentdollars
lars
2,8603,0203,2273,5103,8494, 1974,5845,0665,564
5,4015,4875,5955,770
5,8596,0606, 202
dta per-msump-enditures
1972dollars
3,2343,2653,3423,5103,6483,5893,6273,8083,955
3,9163,9223,9534,030
4,0094,0604,092
Percentchangein real
percapitadispos-
ableper-sonal
income
1.53.02.63.35.9
-2. 21.32.83.3
1. 15. 55. 06.9
. 52.72. 7
Savingas per-cent ofdispos-
ableper-sonal
income
5.67.47.76.27.87.37.75. 75. 1
4. 25. 35. 65.4
5.95.35.2
Popula-tion
(thou-sands) 2
202, 677204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211, 945213, 566215, 191216, 856
216, 206216, 603217, 073217, 541
217, 897218, 290218, 769
1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers tobusiness, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 andare averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for theperiod.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureaof the Census).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter net farm income before inventory adjustment was unchanged while income after inventory adjust-ment rose $1 billion (annual rate).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)'
120
100
80
60
40
GROSS FARM INCOME_BEFORE INVENTORY
ADJUSTMENTI
NET FARM INCOMEAFTER INVENTORY
ADJUSTMENT
120
100
80
60
40
20
10
II
_!_.v 20
101970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1977 1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19701971197219731974 _1975197619771977: I
IIIII,__IV—.
1978: 1 _ _ _ _II__._III
Personaby tota"
Fromall
sources
27.528.834.648.945. 244.541.243.0
1 incomefarm po
Fromfarm
sources
13.013.516.929.223.421.916.918.3
receivedpulation
Fromnonfarmsources
14.515.317.819.721.822.724.424.7
Gross i
Total 1
58.660.670.195.5
100.096.9
104. 1108. 1108. 1106.7102.7114.8
115.8122.5122. 5
Qcome be]justrr
Caslr
Total
Billioi
50.552.961.287. 192.488.294.596. 197.695.791.399.6
102. 2109.0109.5
ore invenlent
h receiptsnarketing
Live-stockand
productsis of dolla
29. 630.635.745.941.443.046.247.646.346. 647.849.5
52.757.558.5
Income re
tory ad-
from3
Crops
rs
21. 022.325.541. 151. 145. 148.348.551.349. 143. 550. 1
49.551.551.0
ceived fro
Produc-tion ex-penses
44.447.452.365.672.275.983.088.087.587.086.091.4
93.596.096.0
m farmin
Net t(oper
Beforeinven-tory
adjust-ment
14. 113.217.829.927.721. 121. 120. 120.619.716.723.4
22.326.526.5
g
) farmators
Afterinven-tory
adjust-ment 2
14.214.618.733.326. 124. 518.820.619.620. 216. 825.5
22.324. 525.5
Net inccfarm a
ventorymei
Currentdollars
Dol
4,7995,0426,526
11, 8139,3498,8456,8487,5927,2407,4606,2109,420
8,3209,1409,510
me perfter in-adjust-
its
1967dollars 4
lars
4, 1264,1575,2088,8756,3305,4874,0164,1834,0904, 1303,3905,080
4,4104,7304,810
1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoneyincome famished by farms.
2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is
held constant within a year.
< Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter, according to revised data, profits before tax declined slightly while after tax-profits fell $1billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
240
200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
240
40
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1978 1979
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19671968196919701971197219731974 .1975197619771977: I
IIIIIIV
1978: IIIIII
Profit
Total *
75.682.177.966.476.989.697.286.5
107.9141.4159.1144.5158.5169.9163.5148.7180.6184.5
M (before
Total
72.678.974.262.672.484.790.476.9
101.8133.2149.51348148. 1159.5155.6139.2168.9175.4
tax) wit!adjustn
Dome
Finan-cial
9.010.411.312.614. 115.416.214.413.017.520.919.719.921.921.922.724.326.0
ti invent*lent l
?tie induIs
Total1
63.668.562.950.158.269.374.162.588.9
115.6128.6115. 1128.1137.6133.7116.6144. 6149.4
>ry valui
stries
fonfinan<
Manu-fae-tur-mg
37.941.236.827.132.440.644.136.648.365.674.766.477.474.780.269.887.887. 1
ition
3ial
Whole-saleand
retailtrade
8.910. 110. 19.4
11.713.314.712.920.724024.020.622.830.622. 116.722.025.8
Profitsbefore
tax
77.385.683.471.582.096.2
115.8126.9120.4155.9173.91648175. 1177.5178.3172.1205.5205.4
Taxlia-
bility
32.539.439.734537.741. 548.752.449.864 371.868.372. 372.873.970.085.086.2
Pro
Total
44 946.243.837.044 354667. 174570.691.7
102. 196.5
102.810481044102.1120.5119. 2
fits after
Divi-dends
20.121.922.622.923.024627.831.031.937.943.741.542.744 146.347.048. 150. 1
tax
Un-dis-trib-utedprof-
its
24724221.214 121.330.039.343.638.753.858.455.060. 160.658. 155. 172.469.2
Inven-tory
valua-tion
adjust-ment
-1.7-3.4-5.5-5.1— 5.0-6.6
-18.6-40.4-12.4-145— 148-20.3-16.6-7.7
-148-23.5-249-20.9
* See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments.
2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately,s Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
8
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $7.4 billion (annual rate) as non-residential construction outlays rose $4.3 billion and producers1 durable equipment purchases increased $3.1 billion.Residential investment outlays increased $3.7 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $13.6 billion, down 56.5billion from the second quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
380
Oyifl
IJAA
oxn
oOfi
200
fQ A
-GROSS PRIV
-
-
_
- r*/
T'I i
ATE DOMESTIC
s — '
I 1 1
: INVESTMENT-
<*~*\
/
1 1 1
^ -
-
-
1 ) 1 1 1 1
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)180 r ~~ ~~ •
- NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT160
BILHONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)130120
110
100
90
80
70 -
60
50
RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
1975 1976 1977 1978
100
80
60
PRODUCERS'DURABLE EQUIPMENT
STRUCTURES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
1979
40
20
0
-20
40
-CHANGE IN
-
y v j
-Ji i
1975
BUSINESS INN
/""""""""V
I i1976
^ENTORIES —
/^~\f
\ I I1977
"^^
I I1978
-
-
i i1979
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977
1977:1IIIIIIV
1978:1IIIII
Grossprivatedomes-
ticinvest-ment
120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.0214.6190.9243.0297.8
272.5295.6309.7313.5
322.7345.4350. 1
Nor
Total
82. 189.398.9
100.5104 1116.8136.0150.6150.21646190.4
180.6187.2193.5200.3
205.6220. 1227.5
^resident
Struc
Total
29.531.635.737.739.342.549.054553.857.363.9
59.363.465.467.4
68.576.680.9
ial fixed
tures
Non-farm
28.230.434336. 137.841. 146.951.851.354761.0
56.460.462.7645
65.273.478.0
investmc
Prodidurj
equip
Total
52.657.763.362.864774387.096.296.4
107.3126.5
1214123.8128. 1132.8
137. 1143.5146.6
mt
icers'ablement
Non-farm
48.053.458.958. 159.969. 180. 188.287.497.5
116.7
111.0113.8118.6123.4
127.2132.9135.5
Resid
Total
28.634537.936.649.662.066. 155. 151.568.291.9
81.691.494 3
100.2
100.3105. 3109.0
ential fis
Non-farmstruc-tures
27.233. 136.335. 147. 960.364352.749.565.888.9
78.688.491.297.5
97.3102. 1105.7
:ed inves
Farmstruc-tures
0.7.6.7.6.7.7.6
1.2.9
1. 11.5
1.61.61.61.2
1.31.41.5
tment
"Pi-rt
ducers'dur-able
equip-ment
0.7.8. 9.9
1.01. 11.21. 21. 11.31.5
1.41.41.51.6
1.71.81.7
Changeness inv
Total
10. 17.79.43.86.49.4
17.98.9
-10.710.215. 6
10.317.021. 913. 1
16.720. 113. 6
in busi-entories
Non-farm
9.47.69.23.75. 18. 8
14710.8
-14312.215. 0
11. 116.522.010.4
16.922. 1146
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
9
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTCapital spending by business in 1978 is expected to be 12.7 percent above the 1977 level according to the CommeraDepartment survey conducted in late October and November.
8ILUON5 OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)180
I I I
"\MANUFACTURING
I I I J L
160
140
120
80
60
40
201971 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978
J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOK.
SOUilCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1979
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1971..1972. _19731974.. _ ...197519761977 .1978*
1977: III._IV-. .
1978: IIIIII «.„_IV*...
1979: I 4
Total i
81. 2188.4499. 74
112. 40112. 78120. 49135. 80IBS. 09
140. 38138. 11
14425150. 76165. 41161. 24
IBS. S4
M
Total
29.9931.3538.0146.0147.9552.4860.1667.65
63.0261.41
61.5767.2067. 767S.20
73. 02
Ej
inufactur
Dur-able
goods
14. 1515.6419. 2522.6221.8423.6827.7731.76
29.2328.19
28.7231.4032.2634.19
34.13
rpenditurf
ng
Non-durablegoods
15. 8415.7218. 7623. 3926. 1128. 8132. 3936.90
33.7933.22
32. 8635. 8036. 6039. OS
38. 89
is for plan
Total
51.2257.0961. 7366.3964.8268.0175.6486. 44
77.3676.70
82.6883. 5687. 6688.04
90.31
t and equ
N
Mining
2. 162.422.743. 183.794. 004. 504.84
4.744.50
4.454.814.995. S3
4.94
ipment
onmanuf
Trans-porta-tion
4. 935.726.036.667.577.456.937.97
6.856.88
8.467.408.058. IB
10.09
acturing
Publicutili-ties
15. 3017. 0018. 7120. 5520. 1422. 2825.8029. 16
26. 2226. 23
27. 9228.4620. SIS30. 59
SO. 79
Com-muni-cation
10.7711.8912.8513. 9612. 7413.3015.4518. 04
16.4015.82
17.0718. 1818.90
44-
44-
Com-mer-cialand
other 2
18.0520. 0721.4022.0520.6020. 9922. 9725. 4S
23. 1423.27
24.7624. 7126.0907
59
Startsand eqt
proj
Manu-factur-
ing
28. 0035. 2147.5752. 4948.2451. 0566. 73
19.8116.54
17.4118. 1016. 96
jf plantlipmentsets3
Publicutili-ties
22. 2228.6038. 1345. 7434. 5029. 6632. 54
10. 237. 99
7.987. 784-40
1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do notagree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross nationalproduct estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlayscharged to current account.
10
2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.' Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given period.* Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and
November 1978. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted employment increased by 543,000 in November while unemployment increased by 42fOOO.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
80
10
0 U.
10
- 5
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCEs DEPARTMf NT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]
Period
19731974197519761977
1977: Nov..Dec..
1978: Jan*..Feb..Mar.-Apr-.May.June..July-Aug_.Sept._Oct_._Nov__
Nonin-stitu-tional
popula-tion
148, 263150, 827153, 449156, 048158, 559
Ui
159, 522159, 736
159, 937160, 128160, 313160, 504160, 713160, 928161, 148161, 348161, 570161, 829162, 033
Civilianemploy-
ment
84, 40985, 93584, 78387, 48590, 546
aadjusted
92, 47392, 623
91, 05391, 18591, 96493, 18093, 85195, 85296, 20296, 11695, 04196, 09596, 029
Unem-ploy-ment
4,3045,0767,8307,2886,855
6,3465,880
6,8976,7396,4795,6855,4576,3266,4385, 9315,7975,4605, 629
Totallaborforce
(includ-ing
ArmedForces)
91, 04093, 24094, 79396, 91799, 534
101, 009101, 048
101, 228101, 217101, 536101, 902102, 374102, 671102, 734102, 671102, 993103, 184103, 764
Civilianlaborforce
88, 71491, Oil92, 61394, 77397, 401
98, 87798, 919
99, 10799, 09399, 41499, 784
100, 261100, 573100, 618100, 549100, 870101, 062101, 647
C
Total
84, 40985, 93584, 78387, 48590, 546
92, 21492, 609
92, 88193, 00393, 26693, 80194, 11294, 81994, 42594, 58194, 86895, 19295, 735
ivilian ei
Agri-cul-tural
3,4523,4923,3803, 2973,244
Seas<
3,3573,323
3,3543,2423,3103,2753,2353,4733,3873,3603,4113,3803, 265
nploymen
Nonagri
Total
80, 95782, 44381, 40384, 18887, 302
Dnally adj
88, 85789, 286
89, 52789, 76189, 95690, 52690, 87791, 34691, 03891, 22191, 45791, 81292, 470
t
cultural
Part-timefor eco-nomic
reasons1
2,3112,7093,4903,2723,297
usted
3,2853,220
2,9863,1933,1643, 3273,2433,4583,3303,2943,2313,2073,171
Unemplc
Total
4,3045,0767,8307,2886,855
6,6636,310
6,2266,0906,1485,9836,1495,7546, 1935,9686,0025,8705,912
syment
15weeksandover
812937
2,4832,3391,911
1,8291,797
1,6881,5681,4631,3841,3581,2311,2921,2151,2931,3701,251
Labor
partici-_X* --_.pationrateCnpr-vper-
r»f»nt1 2
61.461.861.862. 162.8
63.363.3
63.363.263.363.563.763.863.863.663.763.864. 0
1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material short-ages, inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age andover.
* Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because ofrevisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force andto employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 5.8 percent. Unemployment among whites fehto 5.0 percent while black unemployment increased to 11.8 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
10
* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
19731974197519761977.1977: Nov
Dec1978: Jan
Feb.MarApr _ _May.__JuneJulyAugSeptOct .Nov
Total(aU
civil-ian
work-ers)
4.95.68.57.77.06.76.46.36.16.26.06. 15.76.25.96.05. 85.8
Unen
Bys
Men20
yearsand
3.23.86.75.95.24.74.6474.54.54.24.23.94. 14. 14.04.04.0
iploymei
ex and a
Women20
yearsandover
4.85.58.07.47.06.96.66.15.75.85.86.36.16.56. 16.05.65.8
at rate ('
ge
Bothsexes16-19years
14.516.019. 919.017.717.215.616.017.417.316.916.514.216. 315. 616.616.316.2
Dercent c
By
White
4.35.07.87.06.25.95.55.55.35.35.25.24.95.35.25.35. 15.0
f civiliai
race
Blackand
other
8.99.9
13.913.113. 113.712.712.711.812.411.812.311.912.511.711.211.411.8
i labor f<
I
Expe-riencedwageand
salaryworkers
4.55.38.27.36.66.36.05.95.75.75.55.65.45.75. 55.65.55.4
>rce in gi
3y select
House-hold
heads
2.93.35.85. 14,54.23.93.83.63.73. 63.73.63.93.73.73.53.4
*oup)
ed group
Full-timework-
ers
4.35. 18. 17.36.56.25. 95.85.75.65.45.65.25.75.55.55.35.2
s
Part-time
work-ers
7.98.6
10.310. 19.89.68.98.98.69.69.69.28.88.88.68.89. 19.0
Laborforcetimelost(per-
cent) l
5.26. 19. 18.37.67.37.06.86.66.66.36.66.46.86.66.56.36.3
* Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for eco-nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
12Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSUR-ANCE PROGRAMSThe percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers decreased in November, while the percentage who werenew entrants or reentrants to the labor force rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
60
40
20
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
JOB LOSERS
JOB LEAVERS
•V-<?*<'NEW ENTRANTS
I I M 1 , I i I ,i I1975 1976
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
REENTRANTS
1977
60
40 X
20
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
1978 1975
27 WEEKSOVER
15-26WEEKS
1976 1977 1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1973__. _19741975__. __197619771977: Nov__
Dec....1978: Jan.__
Feb.__Mar__Apr— _May__June_ _July___Aug___Sept__Oct ^__Nov *_
Unem-ploy-ment(thou-sands)
4, 3045,0767,8307,2886,8556,6636,3106,2266,0906, 1485,9836, 1495,7546, 1935,9686, 0025,8705,912
Percenpl
Joblosers
38.743. 455.449.845. 344.743.442.941.640.341. 242.540.641.342.440. 143.541.3
it distriboyment 1
Jobleavers
15.714.910. 412.213.013.313.913.614.713.914.513. 514.714. 114. 014.213.713.8
ution oft>y reasoi
Reen-trants
30. 728.423. 826. 028. 128.529.829. 029.430. 928.929.230.630.428.832.229.330. 1
unem-i i
Newen-
trants
14.913. 310.412. 113. 713.613.014.514.214.915.414.814. 114.214.813. 513.614.8
Percerplo
Lessthan 5weeks
51. 050. 637. 038. 341.742. 441.343.243.345.846.848. 146.449. 046.846. 445. 947.8
it distribyment b
5-14weeks
30. 131.031. 329. 630.530.330.429.830.530.529.929.632.630.033. 032. 130.931. 1
ution ofy duratk
15-26weeks
11.011. 116. 513. 813. 113.914.813.815.012.412.011.211. 110.810.511.412.912. 2
unem-m*
27weeksandover
7.87.3
15.218.314. 813. 313.513.211.211.311.211. 19.9
10.29. 7
10. 110.38.9
State pi
Insuredunem-ploy-ment
Wee
1,6322,2623,9922,9682,4732,6022,5162,4612,5242,4062,2102,1672, 1942,3922,5502, 3612,2902,283
*ograms
Initialclaims
jkly aver
246363478382375354346344369326330331348377361330326336
Insuredunem-ploy-ment,
allregular
pro-grams 2
(unad-justed)
age, thou
1,7932,5584, 9433,8223,'1122,8533,2263,7813,6383,2122,6592,3692,2972,5812, 3942,0641,999
Specialunem-ploy-ment
benefitclaims *(unad-justed)
sands
1, 1731, 152
572315259192143102603621
1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Eico), ex-service-
men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federalsupplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).
a FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reportingbegan March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employmentand Training Administration).
13
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 467,000 in November.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
90 :
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS
SERVICE PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES
.GOODS-PRODUCING-INDUSTRIES
1975 1976'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1977 1978 1979
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
20
18
16
14
22
20
18
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
-SERVICES-
GOVERNMENT
MANUFACTURING\
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '
CONSTRUCTION
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;& seasonally adjusted]
TO • JFeriod
197319741975_ _197619771977:Nov__
Dec—1978: Jan. _ _
Feb—Mar__AprMay__June__July._Aug__Sept__Oct*__Nov*>_
Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-
ment
76, 79078, 26576, 94579, 38282, 25683, 54983, 71983, 87184, 18884, 72685, 41885, 61885, 99686, 03386, 14986, 16386, 56787, 034
C
Total *
24, 89324, 79422, 60023, 35224, 28824, 61724, 62624, 64824, 72424, 92725, 31325, 34125, 47325, 50125, 46325, 47125, 66425, 878
Sroods-prc
Con-struc-tion
4,0974,0203,5253,5763,8333,9283,9553, 9053,9013,9994,1644,1754,2784,3174,2984,2984,3384,380
)ducing i
Ma
Total
20, 15420, 07718, 32318, 99719, 64719, 84919, 98420, 06520, 13920, 23020, 28220, 29720, 31620, 30220, 27820, 28620, 43220, 594
ndustries
-nufactui
Durablegoods
11, 89111, 92510, 68811, 07711, 57311, 74611, 85111, 91711, 98612, 04112, 07612, 09312, 10912, 13812, 14612, 16612, 30212, 398
I
ing
Non-durablegoods
8,2628,1527,6357,9208,0748, 1038,1338,1488,1538, 1898,2068,2048,2078,1648, 1328, 1208,1308,196
Total
51, 89753, 47154, 34556, 03057, 96858, 93259, 09359, 22359, 46459, 79960, 10560, 27760, 52360, 53260, 68660, 69260, 90361, 156
S
Trans-porta-tionand
publicutilities
4,6564,7254,5424,5824,6964,7364,7494,7584,7824,8174,8474,8474,8814,8274,8464,8554,9204,946
ervice-pr
Whole-saleand
retailtrade
16, 60716, 98717, 06017, 75518, 49218, 83018, 91118, 99119, 07119, 16919, 25219, 33519, 41219, 46919, 52319, 54619, 64019, 705
oducing
Finance,insur-ance,andreal
estate
4,0464, 1484,1654,2714,4524,5354,5474,5634,5914,6054,6234,6374,6704,6904,7074,7194,7374,795
Industrie
Services
12, 85713, 44113, 89214, 55115, 24915, 56815, 61815, 59715, 67015, 77315, 86615, 89615, 96315, 98916, 07416, 12716, 14916, 245
s
Gover
Federal
2,6632,7242,7482,7332,7272,7272,7232,7362,7362,7392,7452,7532,7722, 7652,7652,7522,7672,767
nment
Stateandlocal
11, 06811, 44611, 93712, 13812, 35212, 53612, 54512, 57812, 61412, 69612, 77212, 80912, 82512, 79212, 77112, 69312, 69012, 734
1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagriculturalestablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay periodwhich includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-sons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived fromthis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employedpersons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they
are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based onreports from employing establishments.2 Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
14Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NON&GRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
196919701971197219731974 _197519761977
1977: NovDec
1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly.Aug __SeptOet »Nov 9
Aver
Totalprivatenonagri-eultural l
37.737. 136.937.036.936.536. 136. 136.0
36.035.9
35.535.736.036. 135.935.935.935.835.835.835.9
•age weekly
Manufi
Total
40.639.839.940. 540.740.039.540.140.3
40.540.5
39.840.140.640.840.440.540.540.340.440.440.6
tours
icturing
Overtime
3.63.02.93.53.83.32.63.13.4
3.63.6
3.53.73.73.83.53.63.63.43.63.63.7
Averaghourly
Totalprivatenonagn-cultural *
$3.043.233.453.703.944.244.534.865.24
5.395.41
5.465.495.545.615.625.665.715.735.775.825.86
56 grossearnings
Manufac-turing
$3.193.353.573.824094434835.225.67
5.855.88
5.935.986.016.056.086. 126. 186.206.286.336.37
Adjusted h
Index,, 1*
Currentdollars
113.2120.7129.2137.5146.0157.5170.7183.0196.8
202.4203.5
206.0206.6208.3210.3211.0212.3214 12146216.2217.9218.9
ourly earninnonagric
^67=100
1967dollars 8
103. 1103.8106.5109.7109.7106.6105.9107.3108.4
109.3109.4
109.9109.5109.5109.6109.0108.7109.0108.7108.7108.7
gs index — 1<cultural 2
Percent eha year
Currentdollars
6.66.67.06.46.27.98.47.27.5
7.47.4
7.87.67.98.28.08.18.28.28.3B.28.1
3tal private
ange fromearlier 4
1967dollars
1.2.7
2.63.00
-2.8-.71.31.0
.6
.6
1.01. 11.21.4.9.6.6.4. 1
-.5
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTORMI INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1969_ _19701971.19721973197419751976,19771977: Oct
NovDec
1978: Jan...FebMarApr .MayJuneJulyAug.SeptOct vNov 9
Total priagricu
Currentdollars
$114 61119. 83127. 31136. 90145. 39154 76163. 53175. 45188. 64193. 50194 04194 22193. 83195. 99199. 44202. 52201. 76203. 19204 99205. 13206. 57208. 36210. 37
Average
vate non-Itural l
1967dollars 3
$104 38103.04104.95109. 26109. 2310478101. 45102. 90103. 93104 93104 7710442103. 38103. 8610486105. 5910421104 04104 43103. 92103. 91103. 97
gross weekly <
Manufac-turing
(
$129. 51133. 33142. 44154 71166. 46177. 20190. 79209. 32228. 50235. 71236. 93238. 14236. 01239. 80244 01246. 84245. 63247. 86250. 29249. 86252. 50255. 73258. 62
earnings
Construction
Current dollars
$181. 54195. 45211. 67221. 19235. 89249. 25266. 08283. 36295. 29297. 30298. 48298. 29284 69297. 26312. 54315.93314 39322. 65323. 02323. 51323. 75323. 98325. 31
Wholesaleand retail
trade
i
$91. 3996.02
101. 09106. 45111. 76119. 02126. 45133. 79142. 19145. 62145. 31146. 30147. 48147. 15150. 15151. 80151. 34151. 86153. 64154 16155. 14156. 46157. 92
Percent chiyear e
total pri^agricu]
Currentdollars
6.44.66.27.56.26.45.77.37.58.37.67.47.36.17.88.37.57.98.18.58.58. 18.4
inge from aarlier,/ate non-Itural •
1967dollars
1.0-1.3
1.941-. 0
-41-3.2
1.41.01.7.8.5.5
— . 21.31.7.4.5.3.6.2
-. 6
1 i Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manu-facturing.
1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
* Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY
Period
1966_ __196719681969__, —
19701971197219731974 ..
197519761977 —
1976: IIII V _ _ _ _ .
1977: I! !_____IllIV
1978: IIIIII *___
1966196719681969
19701971__.197219731974 __
197519761977
1976:111IV
1977:1IIIIIIV
1978:1II. ___I I I » _ _ _
Out
Privatebusiness
sector
98.0100.0105. 1108.3
107. 3110.3117.6124.5121.5
118.8126.5133.2
127.1127.6
130. 5132.5134. 2135.5
135.3138.7139.7
5.52.05.13.0
-.92.86.65.9
-2.4
-2.36.55.3
2.81.6
9.36.55.04.0
-.610.52.9
put*
Non-farm
businesssector
98. 1100.0105.4108.6
107.4110.2117. 8125.0121.9
nas127.0133.6
127.7128. 1
131.0133.0134. 6135. 8
136.1139.8140. 5
6.01.95.43.0
-1. 12.66.96.0
-2.5
-2.56.95.2
2.51.2
9.46.25.03.5
.711.62.0
Hourspers
Privatebusinesssector
100.1100.0101.81046
103.0102.4105.5109.6110.3
105.6108.7112.6
108.5108.9
110.7112.9112. 9113.9
115.0117.6117.4
Percei
2.3
^1.82.8
-1.5-.63.13.9.7
-4.32.93.7
-.81.6
6.68.3
— . 13.7
4.09.2-.5
of allons2
Non-farm
businesssector
1967=
99.8100.0102. 1105.5
104.2103.8107.0111.6112.4
107.5111.0115.4
110.9111.5
113. 3115.5115.8116.7
117.8120.6120.5
at change
3.3.2
2.13.3
-1.2-.43.24.2.7
-4.33.33.9
22. 1
6.87.71.33.0
3.99.8-.3
Outputof all p
Privatebusinesssector
= 100; qua
98.0100.0103.3103.5
104.2107.8111.4113.6110.1
112.4116.4118.2
117.1117.2
117.9117.4118.9119. 0
117. 6118.0119.0
; quarterly
3.22.03.3. 2
.73.43.41.9
-3.0
2.13.51.6
3.6. 1
2.5-1.7
5. 1, 4
-4.51.23.4
>er hourpersons
Non-farm
businesssector
rterly dat
98.3100.0103.2102.9
103. 1106.3110. 1112.Q108.5
110.5114.4115.8
115.2114.9
115.6115.2116.2116.4
115.5116.0116. 6
y data at
2.61.73.2
Q
.1
3. 13.61.7
-3.1
1.93.51.3
2.7Q
2.4— 1. 4
3.7.5
-3. 11.72.3
Compeper 1
Pri-vate
businesssector
a season
94.9100.0107.6114.9
123. 1131.4139.7151. 1164.8
181.2197. 0213. 0
199.3203.6
207.5210.5215.3218.8
225. 2229.6235.3
seasonal]
7.15.47.66.8
7.16.76.38.29.1
9.98.78.1
9.68.9
7.95.89.56.7
12. 18. 1
10.4
nsationlour 3
Non-farm
businesssector
ally ad jus
94.8100. 0107. 3114. 1
121.7129. 9138.3149. 1162.7
178.8193.7209.3
195. 8199.9
203.9207. 1211.2215. 1
221.4225. 8231.0
y adjustei
6. 15.57.36.4
6.66.76.57.89. 1
9.98.48.1
9.08.5
8.36.58. 17.6
12. 28.29.5
UnitCO
Pri-vate
businesssector
ted
96.8100. 0104. 1111.0
118. 1122.0125.3133. 1149.7
161. 2169.3180.2
170.1173.8
176.0179.3181. 1183.9
191. 4194. 6197.8
i annual
3.83.34. 16.6
6.43. 32.86.2
12.5
7.75.06.4
5.88.8
5.37.64.26.3
17.46.86.7
laborsts
Non-farm
businesssector
96.4100.0104.0110.9
118. 1122. 3125.6133. 1150.0
161.8169.4180.8
170.1173.9
176.4179.8181. 7184.8
191.7194.7198. 1
rates
3.53.84.06.6
6.53.52.76.0
12.6
7.84.76.7
6.29.5
5.88.04.27. 1
15.76.47.1
Implicideflal
Pri-vate
businesssector
97.2100.0103.9108.8
113. 9118. 9123. 1130.2143.0
157.4165.4174.9
166.3168.5
170.6174.0176.3178.4
181.3186. 6190.0
3.22.93.94.7
4.74.43.65.89.8
10. 15. 15.7
4.45.4
5.28.25.24.9
6.712. 17.7
} pricetor4
Non-farm
businesssector
96.8100.0104.0108.6
114. 0119. 1122.8127.9141.3
156.3164.8174.6
165.7168.2
170.0173.6176.4178. 1
180.6185.3189. 1
2.93.34.04.5
4.94.53. 14. 1
10. 5
10.65.45.9
5.86. 1
4.48.76.54.0
5.810.88.5
1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, includinghours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily onestablishment data.
s Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for socialinsurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domes-tic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on originaldata; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexesshown here.
Data revised for 1966-1973.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
16Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTION AND ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.7 percent in November, following increases of 0.5 percent in October and 0.4 percent inSeptember. The index for November was 7.3 percent above a year earlier.
INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCAL|160
140
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1975 1976 1977 1978
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
NONDURABLE-̂ ?
*
INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCALE)180
10)
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
160
140
120
UTIUTJIS
MINING
l i 1 1 1 I I i i i 1 1 1 i 1 1 i
160
140
120
100
1974 1975 1976
rv\1977 1978
PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)
,100
90
80
70
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion197219731974197519761977
1977: OctNov...Dec
1978: JanFebMarAprMayJune.. _JulyAug _ _SeptOct ». _ .Nov 9
Total inprodu
Index,1967=
100
100. 00119.7129.8129.3117. 8129.8137. 1
138.9139.3139.7
138.8139. 2140.9143.2143.9144.9146. 1147. 1147.7148.5149.5
dustrialstion
Per-cent
changefromyear
earlier
9.28.4-.4
-8.910.25. 6
6.75.95.0
4.94.54. 15.25.05.25.36.56.66.97.3
IndusMi
Total
87.95118.9129.8129.4116.3129.5137. 1
139.4139.9140.5
138.7139.4141.4143.5144. 3145.5146.7147. 6148.5149.3150.3
stry prodiinufacturi
Dur-able
61.98113.7127. 1125.7109. 3121.7129.5
132.4132.7133.4
131. 1131.5134.4136.9137.6139.0141. 1142. 2142.9144. 1145. 1
iction indfng
Non-dur-able
85.97126.5133.8134 6126.4140.914a 1
149.6150. 1150.9
149.8150.6151.4153. 2154.0154.9155.0155.6156. 6157.0157.8
5xes, 1967
Mining
6.86113. 11147115.3112.81142117.8
119.6118.8113.4
115.01144119.3127.2126.7128.0127. 1126.0124.3127.9128.2
= 100
Utili-ties
5.69139.4145.4143.7146.0151.0156.5
15401542156.7
162.3163.5159. 5156.0157. 0158.6159.9160.8161.2161.6162. 1
Manufa
Federalser
Totalmanu-factur-
ing
83. 187.584273.680.282.4
82.982.983.0
81.781. 982.783.783. 984.384.785. 085.285.485. 7
cturing carate, pi
Reserveles
Mate-rials
88.092.487.773.680.481.9
82.482.381.9
81.981.381.984.084.585. 185.785.986. 286.687.0
i-pacity utj;rcent *
Com-merceseries a
838683778183
82
84
84
83
dization
Whar-ton
series s
91.897.192.980.487.590. 1
91.0
90.1
92.5
93.7
i Output as percent of capacity.3 Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.1 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages ofquarterly data.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department ofCommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.
17
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion __197019711972197319741975197619771977: Oct
NovDec
1978: JanFebMar__AprMay_._J\me__JulyAug.__ _. _SeptOct 9Nov 9
Total
47.82105.3106.3115.7124.4125.1118.2127.2134.9136.5137.0137.6134. 9136.4138.9140.5140. 5141. 1142.2143.3143.8144.5145.3
Coi
Total
27.68109. 0114.7124.4131.5128.9124.0136.2143.4144.9145.2145.8141.8143.8145.9147.5147.0147.0147.7148.4148.9149.8150.6
Final I
isumer go
Durablegoods
7.89106. 1118.8133.8146.2135.3121.4141.4153. 1156.8155.2155.8146.5151. 2157.5161.8160.2160.6160.9161.5160. 2162.6163.3
Prod
deducts
ods
Non-durablegoods
19.79110. 1113. 1120. 6125.6126.3125. 1134. 1139.6140.1141.2141.8139.9140.8141.3141. 8141. 7141.6142.4143. 1144.3144.7145.6
ucts
Equip
Total
20.14100. 194.7
103.8114. 5120.0110.2114. 6123.2125.0125.8126.2125.4126.2129.1130.8131.6133.0134.7136.3136.7137.2137.9
ment
Busi-ness
12.63107.0104. 1118.0134.2142.4128. 2136.3149.2152.6153.5154.0152.6154.2157.4159.3160.2161.8163. 8165.4166.0166.9168. 1
Intermprod
Total
12.89112.9116.7126.5137.2135.3123. 1137.2145. 1147.8148.4150.4151.6151.4151.4152. 1152.6154.7155.6156. 4156. 8157.4158.6
ediateucts
Con-structionsupplies
6.42111.0116.8128.4139.8134.5116.3132.6140.81449146. 5148.3149.2148.6147.9148.5150.4152.1153.5154.7155.7156.7157.9
Ma-terials
39. 29109.2111.3122.3133.9132.4115.5130.6136.9138.9139.0138.8139.2138.6139. 9143.7145.1146.4147.9148.6149.5150.5151.6
Sup-ple-men-tary
group:Energytotal
12.23117.0119.5125.2128.3125.5125.5128.8132.5133.0132.3129.7132.5130.0129.8133. 1134.2135.9136.4136. 1135.9137.4138.5
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion197019711972 _19731974 . __1975__197619771977: Oct
Nov _ _ _Dec
1978: Jan_.Feb_MarApr _ _May _. _Junei_JulyAug___ __SeptOct » _ _ _ _ __Nov *>__ _ „
Primari
Total
6. 57106.6100.2112. 1126.7123.196.4
108.9110.2113.5111.2111.0107.4106.2106.11143115.5117.5123.0126.0127.8128.4129.4
7 metals
Ironandsteel
4.21104796.1
107. 1122.3119.895.8
1049103.4107.7104.3103.899.596.396.4
109.0110.51145119.0120.9123.0123.7
Di
Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts
5.93102. 4103.5112. 112471242109.9123. 3130.9133.8135.8136.4136.9136.9138. 1139.5140.4142.3144.0145. 8146.3146.6147.5
arable m
Non-
tricalma-
chin—ery
9. 161044100.2116. 0133.7140. 1125. 1135.01448148.9149.7151.7150. 1150. 1151. 5152. 2152. 91546156. 1157. 3158.7160.3161.7
anufactu
Elec-tricalma-chin-ery
8.05108. 1107. 7122.2143. 1143.8116.5131.6141. 9144 2146.0147.31440146. 4149.5152.3152.91541157.9156.9158.3158.3159. 1
res
Transp<equip
Total
9.2789.597.9
108.2118. 3108.797.4
110.6121. 1124.3122.0122.2116.2118.4126.5130. 5130. 1130.4132.1133.4132.9137. 3139. 1
srtationment
Motorve-
hiclesand
parts
4.5092.3
118.6135.8148.8128.2111. 1140.7159.7168.4163. 0161.8146.6153. 1165. 1171.7168.3167.7169.7171.0168.9177. 1179.5
Lum-berand
prod-ucts
1.64105.6113.8120.8126.0116. 2107.6125. 1133.4135.7137.5138. 1138.5135. 5136.5136.9136. 5138.7138.1136.9139. 2140.4
None
Ap-parelprod-ucts
8.31101.4104.7109.4117.3114.3107.6122.21242129.0125. 1125.8118.6121. 1122. 8126. 1125.8126. 8124. 5127.2130.7
lurable n
Print-ingandpub-
lishing
4.72107.0107. 1112.7118.2118.2113.3120.61247125.7126.2127.5129. 9128.3129.1128.6128.2128.7130.3129.5131.0131. 2131.6
lanufact
Chem-icalsand
prod-ucts
7.74120.4125. 9143.6154.5159.4147.2169.3180.7182.3183. 1183.01844183. 7185.2185. 5188. 1191. 1192.3192. 2192. 8193.9
ures
Foods
8. 75108. 9112.8116.8120.91240123.4132.3137.9137.3139.4140.4139.3140. 8141. 1143. 1142. 8141.8142.9144.0144 2143.8
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Period
1971197219731974 i197519761977 .
1977: OctNovDec
1978: JanFeb _MarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept"Get*
Total newconstruc-
tionexpendi-tures
110.0124. 1137.9138.51345148.8172.6
176.7178. 1179.0171.4177.6185.4195.3201.6205.8208.3206.4207.7208.0
Total
80. 193.9
105.4100. 293.7
110.5134.7
139.2140.6142.3
134.9141.9147.7153.7156.5160.6159.9158.0159.4160.2
Resic
Total *
Bil
43.354.359.750.446.560.581.0
Seasonall]
84.285.287.479.485.388. 192.494.594.994. 092.592.592.8
Private
lential
Newhousing
lions of doll
35. 144.950. 140.634.447.365.7
/ adjusted ai
69.370.772.865.070.972.574.475.176.677.777. 176.876.2
Commer-cial and
industrial
ars
17.018. 121.723.820.819.922.5
inual rates
24. 124.322.822.422.825.426.427.330.630.630.931.632.0
Other
19.821.524.025.926.430.031.3
30.931. 132. 133.233.834 134.934.635. 135.334.735.335. 4
Federal,State,andlocal
29.930.232.538.340.938.337.8
37.437.436.836.435.737.741.545.145.248.448.448.347.8
Constraetio
Total valueindex
(1967=100)
145.4165.3179.5169.7167.9199.4252.2
Seasonallyadjusted
244258299283266254279332251286289300319
n contracts2
Commer-cial and
industrialfloor space(millions ofsquare feet)
727854
1,010840555592738
Seasonallyadjustedannualrates
757847864996814863921
1,061999898951
1,0371,015
1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alter-ations, not shown separately.
2 P. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index andbeginning 1971 for floor space.
NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparablewith later data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
Period
197019711972... .19731974197519761977
1977: NovDec
1978: Jan _FebMar_.AprMayJuneJulyAug" _.Sept »Oct *Nov »
Units
Total
1, 433. 62, 052. 22,356.62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 160. 41, 537. 51, 987. 1
2,0962,2031,5481,5692,0472,1652,0542,1242,1192,0252,0752,0952,104
*
started, by
1 unit
812.91, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0
888. 1892. 2
1, 162. 41, 450. 9
1,5441,5741,1561,1031,4291,4921,4781,4411,4531,4401,4631,4591,498
few private
type of stri
2-4units
84.8120.3141.3118.368. 164.085.9
121.7
Seasonally
13415310179
12614289
148135139111139165
bousing uni
icture
5 or moreunits
535. 9780.9906.2795.0381.6204.3289. 2414.4
adjusted ai
418476291387492531487535531446501497441
»
Units
ized
1, 351. 51,924.62, 218. 91, 819. 51, 074. 4
939. 21, 296. 21, 690. 0
mual rates
1,8221,7781,5261,5341,6471,7401,5971,8211,6321,5631,7311,7191,691
Unitscompleted
1, 418. 41, 706. 12, 003. 92, 100. 51, 728. 51, 317. 21, 377. 21, 657. 1
1,7691, 6411,7591,6961,8211,9431,8541,8901,9431,9671,9711,842
New priv
Homessold
485656718634519549646819
819857813774793827846831789784792979
ate homes
Homes forsale atend ofperiod *
220287409418346313354403
401403405404404410412418417418419412
Vacancyrate forrental
housingunits
(percent)2
5.35.45.65.86.26.05.65.2
5. 1
5.0
5. 1
5.0
1 Seasonally adjusted.a Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness sales rose 2^ percent in October while inventories rose $3 billion. According to the advance survey, retailsales rose 2 percent in November following an increase of 1M percent in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
TOTAL BUSINESSINVENTORIES
V
1974 1975
TOTALSALES
1976 1977
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
RETAIL SALES
RATIO*
1978
INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
1.201974
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1977 1978
COUJ4CII OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
197119721973 .1974197519761977
1977: NovDec
1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept_Get*Nov 9
Total bi
Q_-|__ Abales z
116, 351130, 049151, 647175, 200179, 621200, 760223, 793
231, 550237, 017
230, 294238, 165242, 627250, 606251, 869252, 639250, 853258, 306258, 311264, 567
osiness *
Inven-tories 3
188, 508203, 088233, 749285, 064283, 614309, 238334, 785
333, 186334, 785
337, 676340, 396345,839350, 545354, 226356, 920359, 301362, 815364, 747367, 635
Who!
cj 1 2Sales *
Mali
26, 25729, 58436, 82245, 83644, 63348, 40853, 509
55, 55857, 266
55, 98557, 63558, 87762, 15264, Oil63, 23563, 40464, 57364, 04566, 728
esale
Inven-tories 3
ons of d<
35, 82339, 78646, 25456, 53755, 11361, 30767, 998
67, 04767, 998
68, 99170, 36172, 88274, 86775, 47475, 82075, 66476, 25377, 02078, 599
TWol
sllars, se,
34, 16937, 42241,87144, 54348, 37053, 54259, 029
61, 65061, 813
59, 98761, 54862, 64963, 91764, 29264, 56564, 34365, 86266, 34767, 22568, 584
Sales 2
Dur-ablegoodsstores
asonally
10, 82712, 36914, 09113, 82014, 90717, 54419, 901
20, 79520, 674
19, 91420, 44520, 89721, 80721, 82122, 09221, 84422, 90822, 81223, 33923, 707
Re
Non-durablegoodsstores
adjusted
23, 34225, 05427, 78130, 72333, 46335, 99839, 127
40, 85541, 139
40, 07341, 10341, 75242, 11042, 47142, 47342, 49942, 95443, 53543, 88644, 877
tail
In
Tnf nl
50, 06355, 07962, 95070, 71670, 62378, 04587, 073
86, 29987, 073
87, 70887, 64289, 09789,96391, 06391, 54392, 47093, 68093, 66494, 301
ventories
Dur-ablegoodsstores
21, 68724, 23828, 07232, 39432, 11936, 41740, 534
40, 08740, 534
41, 06041, 36941, 52141, 88142, 30042, 03642, 35942, 64042, 56543, 039
i
Non-durablegoodsstores
28, 37630, 84134, 87838, 32238, 50441, 62846, 539
46, 21246, 539
46, 64846, 27347, 57648, 08248, 76349, 50750, 11151, 04051, 09951, 262
Inventoirat
Totalbusi-ness J
1.581.501.44L471.581.481.44
1.441.41
1.471.431.431.401.411.411.431.401.411.39
ry- salesio4
Retail
1.391.401.411.481.431.391.40
1.401.41
1.461.421.421.411.421.421.441.421.411.40
1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
20
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureauof the Census).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers* orders, shipments, and inventories rose in October. According to advance data, durable goods ordersand shipments fell in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
140
120
100
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
140
120
100
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1974
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1977 1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1971197219731974197519761977
1977: Oct____Nov..Dec...
1978: Jan___Feb...Mar...AprMay..June _ _July...Aug._.SeptOct___Novs.
Manufac
Total
55, 92563, 04372, 95484, 82186, 61698, 809
111,256
114, 091114, 342117, 938
114, 322118, 982121, 101124, 537123, 566124, 839123, 106127, 871127, 919130, 614
turers1 shi
Durablegoods
29, 97334, 04339, 70444, 25343, 67850, 69758, 266
60, 31660, 22862, 130
59, 97363, 07764, 45766, 49365, 41766, 29365, 22268, 684§8, 91670, 29271, 629
pments 1
Non-durablegoods
25, 95228, 99933, 25040, 56842, 93948, 11252, 990
53, 77554, 11455, 808
54, 34955, 90556, 64458, 04458, 14958, 54657, 88459, 18759, 00360, 322
Manufact
Total
Millioi102, 622108, 223124, 545157, 811157, 878169, 886179, 714
179, 301179, 840179, 714
180, 977182, 393183, 860185, 715187, 689189, 557191, 167192, 882194, 063194, 735
urers1 inv
Durablegoods
ns of dolla66, 27170, 24481, 333
101, 790101, 580108, 968115,424
114,448115,212115, 424
116, 278117,511118, 725119, 848121, 471122, 688123, 830125,206126, 176126, 784
entories 2
Non-durablegoods
trs, season36, 35137, 97943, 21256, 02156, 29860, 91864, 290
64, 85364, 62864, 290
64, 69964, 88265, 13565, 86766, 21866, 86967, 33767, 67667, 88767, 951
Manul
Total
ally ad jus56, 01664, 20176, 22487, 20085, 05899, 134
112, 842
117, 331117, 024122, 128
117,899122, 544125, 801128, 175128, 450127, 580123, 279130, 952131, 840137, 162
raeturers
Durabl
Total
ted30, 03035, 09842, 89446, 78341, 93350, 99759, 795
63, 55662, 82166, 165
63, 33566, 68169, 01670, 03370, 04568, 84065, 18771, 58272, 64576, 98476, 263
7 new ord
e goodsCapitalgoodsindus-tries,non-
defense
7,5358,832
11, 11412, 69110, 78112, 50115, 201
16, 09716, 09016, 988
16, 51117, 88217, 50717, 40918, 12418, 15517, 07419, 34420, 14922, 21919, 963
ers l
Non-durablegoods
25, 98629,10433, 32940, 41743, 12548, 13753, 047
53, 77554, 20355, 963
54, 56455, 8635.6, 78558, 14258, 40558, 74058, 09259, 37059, 19560, 178
Manu-fac-
turers1
unfilledorders 3
107, 657121, 709161, 194189, 678170, 686174, 553193, 659
186, 787189, 469193, 659
197,235200, 798205, 500209, 133214, 010216, 754216, 922219, 999223, 921230, 464
Manu-fac-
turers1
inven-tory —ship-mentsratio *
1.831.671.581.651.831.661.58
1.571.571.52
1.581.531.521.491.521.521.551.511.521.49
i Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.3 Book value, end of period.8 End of period.* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shirvmeTits
s Preliminary; not charted.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCER PRICES PRICESIn November, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finishedconsumer foods increased 0.6 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.7 percent. Prices of capitalequipment increased 1.0 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
140
120
100
140
120
100
1971
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1979
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
19701971197219731974197519761977
1977: NovDec
1978: JanFebMarApr-.May _June __JulyAugSeptOct__Nov
Totalfin-
ishedgoods
110.3113.7117.2127.9147.5163.4170.3180.6
1845185.3
186. 6188.6189.6192.0193.4194.8195.8195.5197.2198.9200.4
Con-sumerfoods
113.5115.3121.7146.4166.9181.0180.2189. 1
191.9192.6
194.8200. 7.202. 1205.8206.7209.1208. 1205.2208.6212. 1213.4
[1967=]
F
Total
109. 1113.1115.4120.2139.4156.2165 5176.2
180.3181.2
182.2183.0183.9185.8187.3188.4190.0190. 6191.7192.9194.5
100; mFinishec
Inishedcons
Cons
Total/
107.7111.4113.4118.5138.6153.1161.8172.1175.4176.1177. 1177.6178.4180.8182.3183.2185.0185.6186.6187.8189. 1
onthly <[ goods
goods eumerfc
umer g
TYiii*flhlo
106.9110.8113.2115.4125.9138.2144.4152. 2
155.5156.1
157.4157.7158.7163.2165.5165.8168.7169.6170.3170. 3171.1
data set
xcludinods
oods
Non-dur-able
108.3111.7113.6120.5146.8163.0173.3185.4
188.8189.5
190.3190.9191. 5192.4193.3194.6195.5195.9197. 1199.2200.9
isonally
g
Capi-tal
equip-ment *
112.0116.6119.5123.5141.0162.5173.2184.5
189.9191.3
192.3193.5194.6195.7197.3198.7199.9200.6201.8203.0205.0
adjuste
Totalcon-
sumerfin-
ishedgoods
109.9112.9116.6129.2149.3163.6169. 0178.9
182. 1182.7
184.2186.4187.5190.4191.6193. 1194.0193.4195. 1197. 1198.5
d]
In1E
Total
109.9114. 1118.7131.6162.9180.0189.3201.7
205.2206.0
207.9209.7211.3212.4213.7214.6215.5216. 4217.9220. 6222.2
iermedinateria]
Foodsand
feeds2
109. 1111.7118.5168.4200.2195.3186.6191.0
185.4183.3
187.2191.0201. 1201.2206.4200.8204.0197. 1201.5207. 1206.4
ates
Other
109.9114.3118.9128. 1159.5178.6189.5202.4
206.4207.4
209.2210.9212.0213. 1214.2215.4216.2217.5218.9221.4223.2
Crud
Total
112.3115.1127.6174.0196. 1196.9205. 12143
2144217.2
221.6228.7231.7238.5238.9243. 1241.7238.6242. 3249.6253.3
e mater
Food-stuffsand
feed-stuffs
112.0114.2127.5180.0189.4191.8190. 1190.9
189.9191. 1
196.4205.6208.0217.0217. 1221.3215.7211.9215.9223.7226.5
ials
Other
112.7117.0128.0162.5208.9206.9233.6258.4
260.9266.3
269.4272.1276.5278.8279.8284 2291.0289.6292. 5298. 61
304 1* Formerly called producer finished goods.2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal
feeds.
NOTE.—Data revised for July 1978.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
22
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CONSUMER PRICESIn October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).Food prices increased 0.6 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.7 percent(also 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.9 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220
200
- 120
100
1970 1971
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967=100]
Period
19701971197219731974197519761977
1977: OctNov...Dec
1978: JanFeb.Mar..._AprMay...JuneJuly...Aug —Sept.__Oct
Allitems
116.3121.3125.3133. 1147.7161.2170.5181.5
1845185.4186. 1
187.2188.4189.8191.5193.3195.3196.7197.8199.3200.9
Food
1149118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.2
Unac
1944195.6196.3
199.2202.02042207.5210.3213.8215.0215.4215.6216.8
Com-modi-tieslessfood
112.5116.8119.4123. 5136.6149.1156.6165.1
ljusted
167.4168.1168.4
168.6168.8170.0171.3173.01744175.4176.3177.8179.1
Serv-ices
121.612R4133.3139.1152.1166.6180.41943
19R5199.5200.5
202. 0203.52049206.5208.0209.9211.7213.4215.6217.6
Allcom-modi-ties
113.5117.4120.9129.9145.5158.4165.21747
176.7177.517&3
179.9180.8182.31840185.6187.2187.9188.7190.1191.5
All
1149118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.2
195.0196.0196.7
199.2201.62043208. 1211.22140213.9214.5215.6217.3
Food
Foodat
home
113.7116.4121.6141.4162.4175.8179.5190.2
192.5193.51942
197.0199.5202.5207.3211. 1214 0213.2213.3214 1216.0
Foodawayfromhome
119.9126. 1131. 1141.4159.41743186. 1200.3
Seasonal
2045205. 1206. 1
208.4210.5212.52140215.8218.2219.9221.7223.2224.6
Comn
AH
112.5116.8119.4123.5136.6149. 1156.6165.1
ly adjust
166.8167.6168.4
169.5169. 9170.9171.8172.8173.91749175.7177.2178.5
lodities le
Dur-able
111.8116.5118.9121.9130.6145.51543163.2
ed
164.4165. 1166.0
167.6168.7169.5170.4171.8173.21744175.2176.7178.1
ss food
Non-dur-able
113. 1117.0119.81248140.9151.7158.3166.5
168.6169.4169.9
170.6170.1171.2172. 1172.8173.51744175.2176.6177.4
Serv-ices
121.6128.4133.3139.1152.1166.6180.41943
198.7199. 5200.3
201.5203.02047206.6208.7210.5212.2214.0215.7217.5
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
Period
1969197019711972197319741975197619771977: Nov
Dec1978: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJuly ,.AugSeptOctNov
Percenperioc
Totalfin-
ishedgoods
4.82.23.23.8
11.818.36.63.36.6.7.4.7
1. 1.5
1.3.7.7.5
2.9.9.8
j changei; season
Consum
Foods
8.2-2.5
5.98.0
22.53.05.5
-2.56.61.3.4
1. 13.0.7
1.8.4
1.2-.5
-1.41.71.7.6
from pr<ally adju
er goods
Exclud-ing
foods
2.93.92.02.07.4
20.56.74.96.1.3.4.6.3.5
1.3.8.5
1.0.3.5.6.7
3cedingisted 1
Capitalequip-ment
4.64.92.42.05.3
22.68.26.47.2.5.7.5.6.6.6.8.7.6.4.6.6
1.0
Percenearlie
Totalfin-
ishedgoods
6.87.27.69.29.6
12. 110.611.48.24.45.06.5
10.4
t changer; seasor
annua
Consum
Foods
5.67.4
11.719.621.224.612. 514.64.5
-2.9-1.0
7.917.0
from 3 ilally adjii rates
er goods
Exclud-ing
foods
5.24.75.45. 15.38.6
11.011.29.67.47.66.27.8
nonthsisted
Capitalequip-ment
10.110.97.47.87. 17.38. 18.78.96.96.46.39. 1
Percenearlie
Totalfin-
ishedgoods
4. 45.06.28.08.49.89.9
10.510. 17.58.27.37.4
fc changer; seasor
annua
Consum
Foods
-0.32.45.2
12.414. 117.916.017.914. 14.56.56.26.6
from 6 rtally adji. rates
er goods
Exclud-ing
foods
4.64.35.35. 15.07.08.08.29. 19.29.47.97.6
nonthsisted
Capitalequip-ment
7.98.48.68.99.07.37.97.98.17.57.57.68.0
i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Based on revised data for July 1978.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
Period
1969197019711972197319741975197619771977 : Oct ...
Nov___Dec___
1978: Jan...Feb_._MarAprMay~_June...July...Aug.—Sept...Oct..-
Percenpeno(
Allitems
6. 15.53.43.48.8
12.27.04.86.8.3.4.4
.8
.6
.8
.9
.9
. 9
.5
.6
.8
.8
t changei; season
Food
7.22.24.34.7
20. 112.26.5.6
8.0.2.5.4
1.31.21.31.91.51.3
-.0.3.5.8
from pretally ad jus
Com-mod-itieslessfood
4.54.82.32.55.0
13.26.25. 14.9.4.5.5
.7
.2
.6
.5
.6
.6
.6
.5
.9
.7
cedingsted1
Serv-ices
7.48.24. 13.66.2
11.38. 17.37.9.4.4.4
.6
.7
.8
.91.0.9.8.8.8.8
Percent cseasons
Allitems
4.54.74.9
6.77.59.3
10.011.311.49.78.37.88.8
lange f reilly adjus
Food
3.13.54.2
8.911.916.419.120. 520.411.66.43.06.5
>m 3 montsted annu
Com-mod-itieslessfood
3.44.75.4
6.65.66.15.57.07.27.46.97.88.5
bs earlier ;al rates
Serv-ices
6.35.64.9
5.87.29. 1
10.511.711.811.310. 610.310.4
Percent cseasons
Allitems
5. 14.84.7
5.66. 17. 18.39.4
10.49.89.89.69.3
lange f reilly adjus
Food
3.73.63.0
6.07.7
10. 113.916. 118.415.313. 211.49.0
»m 6 montsted annu
Com-mod-itieslessfood
3.33.740
5.05. 15.76.16.36.66.56.97.58.0
hs earlier ;al rates
Serv-ices
7.87.06.3
6.06.47.08.19.4
10.410.911.111.010.8.— I
1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier
data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
24
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers decreased 1y2 percent in November. Contributing most to the decline were lower prices forhogs, cattle, and citrus fruits. Partially offsetting were higher prices for eggs, lettuce, milk, corn, and wheat. Prices paidby farmers were unchanged in the month ended November 15.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
PRICES RECEIVED
(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)
PRICES PAID(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,
TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.
SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1976 1977 1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
197019711972197319741975197619771977: Oct
Nov „_Dec .
1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Prices
All farmproducts
110113125179192185186183177178181186193200208215217215210215217214
received by
Crops
100108114175224201197192178184183188190198208212216212202203200200
farmers
Livestockand
products
Index, 1<
118118136183165172177175176174180185196204209217219217217226232228
PricesAll items,interest,
taxes, andwage rates
367=100
112118125144164180191202201202203209211214216219220220220223224224
paid by far
Familylivingitems
114118123133151166176
(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(«)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)3
mers
Produc-tion
items
108113121146166182193200198199199203206211214217218218217220222223
Parity
Actual
7271749186767166€565666567697172737270717170
ratio l
Adjusted *
77757994877672686666676769717374757472737372
1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid,interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.
3 The adjusted parity ration reflects Government payments made directly tofarmers.
s Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitutein calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCKThe narrower monetary aggregates declined in November while the broader M2 and Ms continued to rise.
IILUONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SC
300
200 200
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCi: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
1978
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1973: Dec._1974: Dec..1975: Dec..1976: Dec..1977: Dec..1977: Nov.
Dec..
1978: Jan..Feb..Mar.Apr._May.June-July -Aug..Sept.Oct..Nov»
(
Mi
270.5282.9295.2313.5338.5336.2338.5
341.7341.8342.9348.5350.6352.8354.2356.7360.9262.0360.6
Overall
M1+
397.7419.0456.4516.8560. 2557.7560.2
564.6565.0566. 2572.6575.2577. 1577.8582.0587. 9588.8585.3
measur<
M2
571.4612.2664.7740.5809.5805.4809.5
815.9819. 1822.6830.3835.2840. 6846.2853.5862.4867.4870.5
38 l
M3
919.2981.2
1} 092. 51, 286. 51, 376. 11, 367. 11, 376. 1
1, 386. 61, 393. 11, 400. 31, 411. 41, 419. 91, 429. 81, 441. 01, 455. 11, 472. 11, 484. 41, 492. 8
Cur-rency
61.567.873.780.788.687.788.6
89.490. 190.791.292. 192.893.394.095. 296.096.8
C
Deposit
De-mand
209.0215. 1221. 5232.8249.9248.5249.9
252. 2251.7252.3257.3258.5259.9260.9262.8265.7266. 1263.8
/ompone
s at com
Time
Total 2
363.9418.3450.9489.7545.0540. 1545.0
550.6556.7561.7565.2571.6574.5579.4583.0589.7593. 6605.3
nts and
mercia]
and sa
LargeCDs
63.089.081.362.774.070.9740
76.379.482.083.487. 186.787.486.388. 188.295.4
i elated ]
banks
vings
Sav-ings
127.0135.8160.5201. 9219.6219.4219. 6
220.7220. 9221.0221.6222. 0221.7220.9222. 4224. 2223.9221.9
terns
De-posits
atnon-bankthrift
institu-tions
347.8369. 1427.8496. 0566. 6561.7566. 6
570.7574.0577.7581.2584.7589.2594.7601. 6609. 6616.9622. 3
U.S.Govern-
mentdemanddeposits
(unad-justed)
6.34.94. 14.45.13.55. 1
4.34. 34.85.04. 06.24.53. 66.24.38. 1
Perce
Mi
6.04.64.36.28.07.98. 1
8. 17. 06.07.68.78. 67.58.9
10.87.95.8
nt char
M1+
5.05.48.9
13.28.47.37.5
7.55.84.65.56.46. 14.76. 17.85.73.5
ige3
M2
8.87.18.6
11.49.39.59.0
8.27.77.07.37.57.87.68. 69.99. 18.6
1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; MH- is Mi plus savings deposits atcommercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 isMi plus time and savings deposits at eonrmereial banks other than large certifi-cates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.
26
a Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately.3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arefrom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1970: Dec1971: Dec1972: Dec .__ _1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec..1976: Dec1977: Dec
1977: NovDec
1978: JanFeb... ... _MarApr-May.JuneJulyAugSeptOctNov "
Totalliquidassets
769.7852.5967.2
1, 085. 31, 170. 21, 290. 61, 424. 61, 591. 0
1, 576. 51, 591. 0
1, 607. 71, 619. 21,631.01, 647. 41, 662. 31, 674. 21, 686. 31, 699. 21, 720. 31, 732. 01, 747. 5
Total
632.7719.0816. 6887.7945.0
1, 055. 31, 195. 21, 328. 3
1, 319. 21, 328. 3
1, 339. 11, 345. 61, 352. 81, 363. 51, 371. 51, 381. 61. 393. 81, 407. 81, 424. 31, 436. 11, 445. 3
Curre
Cur-rency
49. 152. 656. 861.567. 873. 780.788.6
87. 788.6
89. 490. 190.791.292. 192. 893.394.095.296.096.8
ncy and c
Demanddeposits
152. 0161. 8176.1183.7187. 1192. 4200.0213.9
212.1213. 9
216.6216. 0216. 3221.5222. 1223. 1224.5226.2228.4228.1225.9
eposits
Timec
Com-mercialbanks
198. 9233. 6264. 3294.4321. 1360. 6417.3459.2
457.6459.2
462.4465.5468. 1469.6472.5476.5481.3486. 1491.0495.1500.2
eposits
Nonbankthrift
institu-tions
- 232. 7271. 1319. 3348. 1369. 142& 6497. 3566. 6
561.7566. 6
570.7574.0577.7581.2584. 7589.2594.7601. 6609.6616.9622.3
U.S. Tseeui
Savingsbonds
52.054.357. 660.463. 367. 271.976.6
76.276.6
77.077.477.878. 278. 678. 979.379. 579.880.180.4
reasuryities
Short-term
market-able se-curities
41.931.534.343.447. 166. 366.577.6
77.177.6
79.580. 179.880.781.681.780.180. 683.683.081.9
Nego-tiablecertifi-
cates ofdeposit
21.827.636. 253.870.458.443.252.3
50.052. 3
53.454.856.558. 662. 361.761.759.660.760.367.0
Otherprivatemoneymarketinstru-ments
21.320. 122. 540.044.443.347.856.3
54.056.3
58.761.464. 166.468.370.471,471. 672.072.473.0
Source: Board of Governors of tho Federal Eeserre System.
CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
1970 _197119721973 - _ __1974197519761977
1977: Oct.NovDec
1978: Jan_ __FebMar.AprMayJuneJulyAug._SeptOct
Instalm
Total1
115, 132138, 046151, 749173, 035172, 765180, 441211, 028254, 071
22, 27322, 48722, 832
21, 98322, 75823, 92524, 68225, 10425, 56525, 02225, 66925, 53725, 855
ent credit e
Auto-mobile
30, 85736, 70643, 70249, 60646, 51452, 42063, 74375, 641
6,5036,7196,889
6,5416,7307,0437,4347,5927, 5957, 6527,7447,5427,511
xtended
Revolving
8,68921, 86224, 65928, 70233, 21336, 95643, 93486, 756
7,6667,7167,985
7,9608,1478, 3988,5238,5639, 0628, 7009, 0289,0068,846
Instalm
Total i
110, 352127, 789136, 787152, 817163, 276172, 676189, 381218, 793
19, 06618, 89119, 252
19, 54619, 89619, 84920, 57620, 82421, 35821, 55622, 03721, 85722, 732
;nt credit lit
Auto-mobile
31, 41432, 51238, 08143, 69646, 01949, 44453, 27860, 437
5,2745, 1795,252
5,2155,3975,4095, 6225, 7155, 9535, 9416, 1406, 0106, 126
|ui dated
Revolving
7,27820, 81823, 48526, ,69931, 24335, 61641, 76480, 508
6,9997,0247,226
7,5457,6987,5667,8407,9198, 1078, 1008,2918,3848,500
Net change
Total1
4,78010, 25714, 96220, 2189,4897,765
21, 64735, 278
3,2073,5963,579
2,4372,8624,0764, 1064,2804,2073,4663, 6323,6803, 123
in amount
Auto-mobile
-5574, 1945,6215,910
4952,976
10, 46515, 204
1,2291,5401,637
1,3261,3331, 6341, 8121,8771,6421,7111, 6041,5321, 385
autstanding
Revolving
1,4111, 0441, 1742, 0031,9701,3402, 1706,248
667692758
415449832683644955600737622346
' Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Note.—Series revised.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
27
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, ANDRevised data show slightly less rapid growth in commercial and industrial loans than previously estimated. Growthslowed significantly in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,000
800
600
400
200
100
80
60
40
-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
INVESTMENT IN
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
i i i 1 1 I i i l l s i 1 i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1,000
800
600
400
200
100
80
60
401970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted^ except as noted]
PorinH
19701971197219731974197519761977
1977: Nov.Deo ....
1978: Jan.FebMarAprMayJuneJuly 9Aug*Sept*Oct »Nov 9
Totalloansand
invest-ments
435.5485.755ao63a4
4 691. 1721.8785.1870.6
866.2870.6
881.2887.7894.1909.0921.7932.2940.79446952.4960.9966.3
Allc
L<
Total ex-cludinginter-bank
292.0320.937R9449.0500.2496.9538.9617.0
611.6617.0
625. 1628.4637.2
x647..-6659.7667.8675. 1680.2687.3696.8706.7
ommercial I
)ans
Commer-cial and
industrial
110.0116.2130.4156.6isas176.2
5 179. 7« 201. 4
200.2• 201. 4
203.8205.8209.8212.4217.9219.0220.8222.8224.6227.0228.9
;>anks l
Investor
U.S. Gov-ernmentsecurities
57.860.662.654.551. 180. 198.095.6
96.395.6
96.599.496. 198.397.9
100.2100.697.997.295.290.3
lents
Othersecu-rities
85.7104.2116.5129.9139.8144814a2158.0
158.3158.0
159.6159.9160.8163. 1164 11642165.0166.5167.9168.9169.3
I
Total
29.1131. 1731.34349136.573468349336.14
35.9636.14
36.6136.9336.6736.9537.2637.7338. 1937.9138.1738.43
All me
teserves 2 3
Non-borrowed
2a7831.0430.2933.6135.843455348835.57
35.1035.57
36.1236.5236.3436.3936.0536.6336.8836.7737. 1137. 15
mber ban
Re-quired
28.8630.9831.06346136.313442346535.95
35.7135.95
36.3436.6936.4736.8037.0437.5538.0037.7437.9738.26
ksBorrowiilions of
unadju
Total
321107
1,0491,298
70312762
558
840558
481405344539
1,2271, 1111,2861, 1471,0681,261
igs (mil-dollars,isted) *
Sea-sonal
4132131254
8354
3252474393
120143188191221
* Data are for end of period.3 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.3 Member tank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages
with no adjustment to eliminate the eflect of changes in Regulations D and M.
28
* During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due toa bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank.
» Loan rectifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976.s Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977.Note.—Commercial bank data revised beginning January 1978.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1970™__1971197219731974197519761977
1977: IIIIIIIV
1978: IIIIII*
Total
1043127.1161.7199.8190.8143.8205.0239.0
244.3198.6266.0247.1
283.9274. 1289.4
Inter-nal1
58.968.680.883.875.7
106.8124.7135.3
123.8134.9145.5137.3
127.2144115L6
Total
45. 558.580.9
115.9115. 137.080.3
103.6
120.563.7
120.6109.9
156.7130.0137.8
Sources
Credil
Total
40.744558.372.781.837.058.278.7
75.963.780.195.2
102.282.880.2
External
b market 1
Long-term2
32.140.640.637.039.149.348.846.2
34435.353.561.5
40.353.7545
unds
Short-term 3
8.63.9
17.635.742.6
— 12. 39.5
32.6
41.628.526.633.7
61.929. 125.7
Other
4814 122.743.333.4
.022. 1249
446-.040.5147
54547.257.6
Total
95.9119.6145. 8185.6179.0131.91849212. 3
2146177.32346222. 7
263.3260.8272.6
Uses
Pur-chase
ofphysi-
calassets *
80.386.0
100.3123.3134799.9
141.21646
152.5162.4175.2168.0
179.8199.9194.8
In-crease
infinan-
cialassets
15.633.645.662.344432.043.747.8
62. 114959.4547
83.561.077.8
Dis-crep-ancy
(sourcesless
uses)
8.47.5
15.914211.811.920. 126.7
2&621.331.4244
20.613.216.8
* Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.
2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.9 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers* acceptances,
and Government loans.
* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and min-eral rights from U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
End of period
SEC series:2
197019711972 ....19731974
FTC-FRB series:3
1974197519761977_
1977: IIIIIIIV
1978: III . _
Total
492.3529.6599.3697.8790.7
734 6756.3823. 1900.1
842.0856.4880.3900.1
9242953.6
Cash
50.253.359.066.371.1
73.080.086.8942
80.883.183.4942
88.590.9
Curre
U.S.govern-ment
securi-ties
7.711.010.612.812.3
11.319.626.020.9
26.822. 121.520.9
20.919.7
at assets
Notesandac-
countsreceivable
206.1221. 1248.2288.5322.1
265.5272. 1292.4325.7
304 1312. 8326.9325.7
338.3356.8
Inven-tories
193.3200.4225.7263.9313.6
318.93147341.4375.0
352. 1358.8367.5375.0
389.7399. 1
Othercurrentassets
35.043.855.866.471.7
65.969.976.4843
78.379.681.084 3
86.887.0
Cur
Total
3049326.0375. 6450.9530.4
451.8446.9487. 5543.2
502.6509.5528.9543.2
570.4590.6
rent Habil
Notesandac-
countspayable
211.3220. 5282.9340.3402.3
272, 3261.2273. 2306. 8
280.2286.8297.8306.8
317.2331.4
ities
Othercurrentliabili-j » _ _ties
93.6105.592.7
110.7128. 1
179.5185.72142236.3
222.4222.7231. 1236.3
253.2259.2
Network-
ingcapital
187.4203.6223. 7246.9260.3
282.8309.5335.6357.0
339.5346.9351. 4357.0
353.8363.0
Currentratio l
1.6151.6251.5951.5481.491
1.6261.6931.6881.657
1.6751.6811.6641.657
1.6201.615
* Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial IteportfQT Manufacturing, Mining, and
Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.
NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Trade
Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.
29
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates stabilized in December following the November upturn.
PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM
10 10CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)
1970
SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
Period
1972197319741975197619771977: Nov
Dec1978: Jan
FebMar __AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Week ended:1978: Nov 25_._.
Dec 2___ .9-___
16....23..-
U.S. Tre
3-monthbills i
4.0717. 0417.8865.8384.9895. 2656. 1606. 0636.4486.4576.3196.3066.4306.7077.0747.0367.8368. 1328.787
8.6969. 1668.9848.9299.237
asury seeuri
Constant i
3-year
5.726.957.827.496.776.697.227.307.617.677.707.858.078.308.548.338.418.629.04
8.969. 169. 129. 19
ty yields
naturities 2
10-year
6. 216.847.567.997.617.427.587.697.968.038.048. 158.358.468.648.418.428.648.81
8.788.858.868.95
High-grademunicipal
bonds(Standard& Poor's)3
5. 275. 186.096.896.495.565.385.485.605.515.495.715.976.136. 185.985.935. 956.03
5.996. 116. 126.28
CorporateAaa
(Moody's)
7.217.448.578.838.438.028.088. 198.418.478.478.568.698.768.888.698.698.899.03
9.009.049. 069. 12
Prime com-mercialpaper,4-6
months
4.698. 159.876. 335.355. 606.596. 646. 796.806.806.867.117.637.917.908.449.03
10.23
10.2210.2810.3210.36
Discountrate
(N.Y.F.R.
Bank)*
4.506. 457. 836.255.505.466-66-66-6H
6H-6H6H-6H6fc-6H61/2-77-77-7^
71/4-7%7Ji-8
8-8H9K-9/2
9H-9/29/2-9/29/2-9/29/2-9/29/2-
Primerate
chargedby
banks 4
5.258.03
10.817.866.846.83
!%-!%7%-7H7K-8
8-88-88-88-8/2
8H-99-99-9H
9K-9%9^-10M
10/2-11/2
11-11/2
11H-11H11/2-11/211/2-11/2
ll%-
New-home
mortgageyields
(FHLBB)5
7.607.958.929.018.999.019.079.099.159.189.269.309.379.469.579.709.739.839.86
1 Rate on new issues within period.3 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities
by the Treasury Department.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
30
s Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflectingfees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymengat end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable withprior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service,and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices were generally stronger in December than in November.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080
50
40
30 -
- 50
40
- 30
1970 1978
PER20
15
10
5
0
CENT
-
r^^-l
i I I1970
I I I-1971
i I I1972
EARNING
_x^1^—^
\ 1 i1973
S-PRlCEl RATIO C(S&
^
I I i1974
)N COMMON ST
P)
k
i I I
1975
OCKS
^
i i i1976
+-~^- 1
1 1 11977
PERC
-i
« *̂**
I ! I1978
ENT20
«
10
5
0
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1972__197319741975 __1976 _19771977: Nov___ __
Dec1978: Jan....
Feb___ .MarAprMayJuneJulyAug__ ___SeptOctNov
Week ended:1978: Nov 18____
25____Dec 2
9— —16
New York
Composite
60.2957.4243.8445. 73544653.6951.8751. 8349.8949.4149.5051.7554.4954.8354. 6158.5358.5856.4052.74
51.8753. 1754. 1554.2153.81
Stock Exel:
Industrial
65.7363.0848.0850. 5260. 4457. 8655. 6253.5553. 4552.8052.7755.4859. 1459.6359.3564.0764.2361.6057.50
56.4857.9657.9459. 2258.77
Comi
iange indexe
Transpor-tation
50. 1737.7431.8931. 1039.5741.0939.3039. 7539. 1538.9038.9541. 1944.2144. 1944.7449.4550. 1946.7041.80
40.7141. 9442.3143.6242. 95
lion stock p
s(Dec. 31, 1
Utility
38.4837.6929. 7931.5036.9740. 9240.3340.3639.0639.0239.2639.6939.4739. 4139.2840.2039. 8239.4437.88
37.5238.3138.2238.4838. 29
rices l
L965=50) 2
Finance
78. 3570. 1249.6747. 1452.9455.2554. 0453.8550. 9150.6051.4455. 0457.9558.3157.9763.2863. 2260.4254.95
54.0655.3155. 1956. 6056. 25
Dow-Jones
industrialaverage 3
950. 71923. 88759. 37802. 49974.92894.63828. 51818. 80781. 09763. 57756. 37794.66838. 56840. 26831. 72887. 93878. 64857. 69804. 29
790. 96806. 70803. 72815. 44812. 07
Standard& Poor'scomposite
index(1941-43=
10) 4
109. 20107. 4382.8586. 16
102. 0198.2094.2893. 8290.2588.9888.8292.7197.4197.6697. 19
103. 92103. 86100. 6194.71
93.2995.3895. 1796.9696.23
Common s(perc
Dividend-priceratio
2.843.064.474313.774625.025. 115. 325.495.625.425.205. 195.254934.975.115.45
5.545.385.495.285.39
tock yieldsent) 5
Earnings-
ratio
5.507. 12
11.599.158.90
10.79
11.45
12.25
11.81
1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand-ard & Poor's Corporation. _ _
31Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first month of fiscal year 1979 there was a budget deficit of $13.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $14.7billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS5001
IILUONS Of DOIURS500
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS
400
300
200
50
0
-50
-100
400
300
200
50
0
-50
-100
OUTIAYS
SURPLUS (+) OR DEROT (-)
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
FISCAL YEARS
197$ 1977 1978 1979
SOURCES, DEPARTA4ENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:196919701971.19721973197419751976Transition quarter197719782
1979 (estimates):Statement, October 1978 2
Second Concurrent Resolution, Sept. 1978 3
First month:Fiscal year 1978Fiscal year 1979 _ _
Receipts
187.8193.7188.42oae232.22649281.0300.081.8
357. 8402.0
452.7448.7
24. 128.7
Outlays
1845196.6211.4232.0247. 1269.6326. 1366.4947
402.8450.7
491.6487.5
38.842.7
Surplus ordeficit (-)
a2-2.8
-23.0-23.4-148-47
-45. 1-66.4-13.0-45.0-48.7
-38.9-38.8
-147-13.9
Federal debt (
Tntfll 1
367. 1382.6409. 5437.346a4486.25441631.9646.4709. 1780.4
707.7785.3
end of period)
Held bythe public
279.528493043323.834ao346. 1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9
553.7617.4
i Excludes noil-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.3 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office
of Management and Budget, October 27,1978.
a Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, Septem-ber 21, 1978.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,except as iioted.
32Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first month of fiscal year 1979 budget receipts were $4.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were$3.9 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8ILL10NS OF DOLLARS
100
400
300
200
100
400
300
200
100
OUTLAYS
**
J_ I Iy 1970 1971 1972 1973
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
1974 1975
FISCAL YEARS
1976 1977 1978 1979 N
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:1969_1970197119721973___ _ _ _197419751976___ _Transition quarter _19771978 *1979 (estimates) * ___ _First month:
Fiscal year 1978Fiscal year 1979
Total
187.8193.7188.4208.6232.2264.9281.0300.081.8
357.8402.0452.7
24.128.7
Rece
Indi-vidualincometaxes
87.290.486.294.7
103.2119. 0122.4131.638.8
157.6181.0202.7
13.315.9
ipts
Corpo-rationincometaxes
36.732.826.832.236.238.640.641.48.5
54960.068.0
1.41.7
Other
63.970.575.481.792.8
107.4118.0127.034.5
145.2161. 1182.0
9.411. 1
Total
184.5196.6211.4232.0247. 1269.6326. 1366.494.7
402.8450.7491.6
38.842.7
Nationa
Total
79.478.675.876.674577.885.689.422.397.5
105.2114 5
8.29.2
(
. defense
Depart-ment ofDefense,military
77.977.274575.273.377.685.088.021. 995.7
103. 1112.0
8.09.2
)utlays
Interna-tionalaffairs
46434 147405.66.95.52.2485.96.3
.4
.3
Healthand
incomesecurity
49.056. 170. 181.491.8
106.5136. 3160.941.5
176.7189.9209. 1
14815. 9
In-terest
15.818.319.620.622.828. 131.03467.2
38. 143.952. 1
2.93.0
Other
35.739.341.848.853.951.766.576.021.585.7
105. 8109.6
12.5143
1 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Officeof Management and Budget, October 27,1978.
Source: Depaitment of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $16.9 billion (annual rate) and expendituresrose $16.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $22.8 billion, $0.8 billion less than the second quarter deficit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS550
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
50
-50
inn
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
1970 1971
*•-„
1972
Y/A k^d ^* k^
1973
j
1974CALENDAR YEAR5
B|1<
1
?75
11ill
1976
il|
1977
1|M_
1978
50
-50
inn
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Fiscal year:1974197519761977Calendar
year:1974197519761977
1977: I!!___III_.IV._.
1978: III— .IIL__
Total
271.8283.5313.9365.3
288.6286.2331.4374.5
366.6371.4374.3385.5
396.2424.8441.7
Federal (
Personaltax andnontaxreceipts
122.6127. 1136.9165. 9
131. 1125.4146.8169.4
168.3167.0167.6174.8
176.8186.7199.7
jrovernm
Corpo-rate
profitstax
accruals
43.742.151.958.8
45.942.854.861.3
58.461.862.062.9
59.672.673.6
ent receip
Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals
21.422.224.224.5
21.723.923.425.0
24424.825.425.6
26.527.928.2
ts
Contri-butions
forsocial in-surance
84.292. 1
100.9116. 1
89.994.2
106.4118,' 7
115.5117.7119.3122.2
133.3137.6140. 1
Total
278.8328.7371.5412.0
299.3356.8385.2422.6
403.9411.7430.7444. 1
448.8448.3464.5
Fe
Pur-chases
of goodsand
services
104.6118.0126.2140.7
111. 1123.1129.9145.1
138.3142.9146.8152.2
151.5147.2154.0
jderal G<
Trans-fer pay-ments
104.7134.3156.5169.6
117.6149.1161.6172.7
168.6168.2175.7178.3
180.2180.7188. 8
3vernmei
Grants-in-aid
to Stateandlocal
govern-ments
41.648.457.566.2
43.954.661. 167.4
62. 165.470.971.1
73.975.977.5
it expen
Netinterest
paid
19.821.925.228.4
20.923.226.829.1
28.128.828.930.7
33.234.636.3
iitures
Subsidiesless
currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises
8.05.76.27.0
5.36.85.88.3
6.76.48.4
11.8
10.010.08.0
Less:Wage
accrualslessdis-
burse-ments
-0.2— . 4
.0
.0
-.5.0.0.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
Surplusor
deficit(-),
nationalincome
andproductaccounts
-7.0-45.3-57.6-46.7
-10.7-70.6-53.8-48.1
-37.3-40.3-56.4-58.6
-52.6-23.6-22.8
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Depart-ment of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.
34
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967=100]
Period
1971197219731974__1975__19761977
1978: Jan____Feb-__Mar___Apr —May __June _ _July *_Aug "__Septp-Oct*_Nov*>_
In
UnitedStates
109.6119. 7129. 8129. 3117.8129. 8137. 1
138.8139. 2140.9143.2143. 9144. 9146. 1147. 1147.7148.5149. 5
dustrial
Can-ada
121. 5130. 7143.0147. 5139.6146. 7152. 6
153.3156.7157.5158.2156. 9158.4159.3158. 4163. 3163.2
produc
Ja-pan
155. 8167.2190. 5183. 1163. 9182.0189. 5
195. 2195.4199.5199.7200. 3200.5199.7201.8203.4203.0
stion (set
France
128135145148139149152
154152156160155154/!„•s loo156156
isonally
Ger-many
133.6138.7147.7145. 1137. 1149. 1152.7
157152151152151155157156159157
ad juste
Italy
117. 5122. 7134. 6140. 6127. 6143. 5144. 8
143.4148. 0146.6143.6145. 9144.2144. 9143. 1147. 6152.5
d)
UnitedKing-dom
110. 6113.2123. 0120. 0114. 3117.4123. 1
123. 8124.5124.0128.4126. 6128.9128.6128. 8127.4126.5
UnitedStates1
121. 3125. 3133. 1147. 7161.2170. 5181.5
187. 2188. 4189. 8191. 5193.3195. 3196.7197.8199.3200.9
Con
Can-ada
115. 6121.2130.3144.5160. 1172. 1185.9
194.0195.3197.5197.9200.7202.4205. 4205.5205. 2207.3209. 0
sumer j
Japan
126.5132.3147.9184.0205. 8224.9243.0
246. 1247. 1249.4252. 1253.5252. 1253. 1253.3256.4256.8
>rices (ui
France
123. 5131. 1140.7160.0178. 9196. 1213.9
222. 8224.4226.4228.9231. 1232. 8235.7237. 1238.6240.8
ladjustec
Ger-many
112. 7119. 0127.2136. 1144. 2150.7156.6
158.9159.7160.3160. 7161. 1161. 5161. 5161.0160.6160.6161. 1
D
Italy
114.4121.0134. 1159.7186.8218. 1257.6
274.6277.4280. 3283.3286.4288.8291.0292. 3296. 2299.4301.4
UnitedKing-dom
128.5137.6150. 3174.4216.5252. 4292.4
304.4306.2308. 1312.6314.4316.8318.2320.3321. 6323. 1325. 3
i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureauof International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International EconomicResearch, in International Economic Indicators.
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
Monthlyaverage :
1973 _ __1974
1974197519761977 _1977: Oct
Nov_-_Dec
1978: JanFeb____Mar___Apr-__May___June___July___Aug__Sept___Oct
Totaldomes-tic andforeign
ex-ports
5,9028, 159
8, 1598, 9669,596
10, 0969, 3579,478
10, 99910, 0149, 922
10, 91211, 63511,75412, 12611, 79312, 46913, 42913, Oil
Mercl
Total ! 2
F.
5,8118,045
8, 0458,8429,4569,915
landise e
Domesti
Food,bever-ages,
and to-bacco
a.s. valu
1,0781,269
1,2691, 3991,4361, 3321, 0231, 1351,4721,2811,5311,6041,6931,8971,9631,8442,0081,8511,798
xports
e exports
Crudemate-rialsandfuels
e 5
8951,317
1,3171,2661, 3411,5481,4661,5001,4931,4021,2821,4831,6991, 7811, 9301, 6361,7581,8811,971
Manu-fac-
turedgoods
3, 7285,294
5,2945,9136,4376, 6816,2776,3827,4636,7396,6747, 1457,5627,5487, 7517,8598,2328,7208,735
Total 2
5, 7908,416
8, 3548,048
10, 08412, 30712, 58712, 40713, 47412, 38114, 44013, 69914, 49613, 99213, 72314, 77914, 09015, 12015, 138
Merc
Ge
Food,bever-ages,
and to-bacco
Custon
770892
F.a.s.892827991
1, 186998962
1,4421,2761, 3631,3701,3701, 3131, 1351,3231,1411, 2981,423
landise i
rieral im
Crudemate-rialsandfuels
is value
1, 1202,653
value 5
2, 6722,7183,4574,4634,6804,7713,9003, 9124, 3623,9284, 1394,4614, 2214, 1474,4144,6664,597
mports
ports 3
Manu-fac-
turedgoods
3,7504,684
4, 6024,2575,3986,3796,7676,1407,5567,2648,4648,0438,6368,2478, 0208,8648,1958,7488,826
Total(c.i.f.
value) *
6,1319,000
9,0008,654
10, 82513, 13013, 43213, 20314, 37013, 15715, 38114, 57015, 43614, 89414, 60715, 74815, 03016, 14416, 068
Mer<
Ex-ports(f.a.s.)
lessim-
ports(cus-tomsvalue)
112-257
—257853
—581—2, 297-3,314-3, Oil-2, 581-2,455-4, 649-2,915-2,983-2, 358-1, 702-3,082-1,706-1, 824-2, 196
Aandisebalance
Ex-ports(f.a.s.)
lessim-
portsft r\ r, \(f.a.s.)
-195
—195918
—488—2, 211-3,230-2, 929-2,475
-2, 367-4, 518-2,787-2,861-2,238-1,597-2, 987-1, 621-1,691-2, 128
trade
Exports(f.a.s.)less
imports(c.i.f.)
—229-841
—841312
—1, 229—3, 034-4, 074-3, 725-3,371
-3, 143-5,459-3, 658-3, 801-3, 141-2,482-3, 956-2, 561-2,715-3,058
1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military sup-plies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.
2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.4 C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the
United States. Data for 1973 are estimates.
5 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exportsand at foreign port of exportation for imports.
NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter, the current account deficit widened to $3.8 billion from $3.1 billion in the second quarter. Themerchandise trade deficit rose marginally, from $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-10
1970.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1977 1978
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
197119721973197419751976___.1977
1977:1---!!___III__IV..
1978: !___II~_IIL.
M
Ex-ports
43, 31949, 38171, 41098, 306
107, 088114, 694120, 576
29, 47730, 62931, 00929, 461
30, 66435, 06736, 930
erehandise
Im-ports
-45,579-55,797-70,499
-103,649-98,041
-124,047-151,706
-36, 502-37,263-38,277-39,664
-41, 865-42, 869-44,975
1 2
Nethnl.Ucl.1—
ance
-2,260-6,416
911-5,343
9,047-9,353
-31, 130
-7,025-6,634-7,268
-10,203
-11,201-7,802-8,045
Invc
Re-ceipts
12, 68814, 69421, 69727, 54125, 35929, 24432, 100
7,7968,0888,2207,997
9,38110, 0039,946
jstment IE
Pay-ments
-5,436-6,544-9,655
-12,084- 12, 564-13,311-14,593
-3, 197-3,601-3,610-4, 185
-4, 503-5,420-5, 396
icome *
NetJLl Cl»
7,2528,150
12, 04215, 45712, 79515, 93317, 507
4,5994,4874,6103,812
4,8784,5834,550
Netmili-tary
trans-actions
— 2,893-3,621-2,287-2,080
-876312
1,334
568295467
5
210592177
Net-traveland
trans-porta-
tionreceipts
-2, 315-3,028-3,086-3, 105-2,522-2,245-3,044
-907-759-677-701
-823-626-802
Otherserv-ices,net8
2,5092,7893,1853,9754,6174,7144,749
1,1361,1711,2601, 183
1,3611,4681,563
Bal-anceon
goodsand
serv-ices 3
2,294-2, 12510, 7668,905
23, 0609,361
-10,585
-1,630-1,440-1,609-5,903
-5,576-1,785-2,557
Remit-tances,pen-
sions,and
otheruni-
lateraltrans-fers1
-3,701-3,854-3,881-7, 186-4, 615-5,022-4, 708
-1,126-1,243-1,277-1,064
-1,282-1,317-1,267
Bal-anceon
cur-rentac-
count
-1,407-5,979
6,8851,719
18, 4454,339
-15,292
-2, 756-2, 683-2, 886-6,967
-6, 858-3, 102-3,824
1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income andincluded in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedAfter falling by $5.7 billion in ihe second quarter, foreign official assets in the U.S. rose by $4.9 billion in the thirdquarter. The accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad accelerated from $5.3 billion in the second quarter to $9.7billion in the third quarter. This rise was partially offset by an increase in the accumulation of other foreign assets inthe U.S. from $6.1 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS30 I
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1 30
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
20
10
20
10
CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET
-10
-20
-30
-10
-20
-301970 1978
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC. ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1971197219731974197519761977
1977: IIIIIIIV
1978: IIIIII *>__
U.[incre
Total
- 12, 475- 14, 461-22,823-34,712-39,444-50,608- 34, 650
- 1, 334- 12, 003
— 6,615-14,700
-15,036-6, 134
-11,006
S. assetsase/capita
U.S.officialreserveassets 1 2
2,34832
209- 1, 434
-607-2,530
-231
-3886
151
246329180
abroad,1 outflow
OtherU.S.
Govern-mentassets
-1,884-1,568-2,644
366-3,470-4,213-3,679
— 949-795
— 1, 098-838
— 896-1,176-1,494
tiet( — )]
U.S.privateassets 2
- 12, 939- 12, 925-20,388
33, 643— 35,368-43,865-30,740
3-11,214-5,668
-13,862
-14,386-5, 287-9, 692
Fore[inci
Total
22, 98721, 69618, 66334, 67715, 55036, 96950, 869
2,49014, 06414, 25120, 065
18, 095406
14, 612
ign assets*ease/capit
Foreignass
Total
26, 89510, 7056,299
10, 9816,907
18, 07337, 124
5,4517,8848,246
15, 543
15, 760-5, 685
4, 904
in the U.al inflow
i officialets
Assets offoreignofficialreserveagencies
27, 40510, 3225, 145
10, 2575,259
13, 08035, 480
4,9467,4677,914
15, 153
14, 956-5, 373
4,554
S., net(+)]*
Otherforeignassets
-3,90710, 99112, 36423, 6968,643
18, 89713, 746
-2, 9626, 1806,0054,522
2,3366,0909,708
Alloca-tions
ofspecial
drawingrights
(SDR)
717710
Statidiscre
Total(sum of
theitems
with signreversed)
-9,822-1,966-2,725-1,684
5,4499,300-927
1,600622
-4, 7511,602
3,7988,830
218
stiealpancy
Ofwhich :
Seasonaladjust-ment
discrep-ancy
131-179
-2,2292,276
160-1
-2, 411
U.S.officialreserveassets,net1
(unad-justed,end of
period)
12, 16713, 15114, 37815, 88316, 22618, 74719, 312
19, 12019, 15618, 98819, 312
19, 19218, 864
1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, andthe U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of the Treasury.
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OFFICIAL BUSINESSFirst-Class Mail
ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING pagc
Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates. 19Business Sales and Inventories-—Total and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 21
PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Producer Prices 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock 26Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors 27Consumer Instalment Credit 27Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31
FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budge Receipts and Outlays and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36
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