economic indicators: november 1991 · percent (annual rate) or $58.4 billion. real gnp (gnp...

102d Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

NOVEMBER 1991(Includes data available as of Not-ember 22, 1991)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

FEDERAL RESERVESANK OF CHICAGO

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1991

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, ChairmanLEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman

SENATELLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee)RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)STEVE SYMMS (Idaho)CONNIE MACK (Florida)ROBERT C. SMITH (New Hampshire)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESDAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York)KWEISI MFUME (Maryland)RICHARD K. ARMEY (Texas)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)

STEVEN QUICK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, ChairmanDAVID F. BRADFORD, MemberPAUL WONNACOTT, Member

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $28.00 per year ($35.00 for foreignmailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTIn the third quarter of 1991, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 4.2percent (annual rate) or $58.4 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.4 percent and theimplicit price deflator rose 1.8 percent.

BILLIOS

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

IS OF DOLLAF

_

~~

T^

1 1 1

1982

OURCE: DEPARTME

iS (RATIO SC

—^

-

1 1 1

1983

NT OF COMMERCE

\LE)

—~

fc=

1 1 1

1984

SE

-^

---••'

I 1 1

1985

ASONALLV ADJUST

c- IN CURRE

—^

1 1 1

1986

D ANNUAL RATES

NPMT DOLLARS-

\ XIy

.,-'GN

IN 1982 D

1 1 1

1987

./^

s

-----

3

3LLARS

1 1 1

1988

BILL

^^

\ \ \1989

ONS OF DOL

^-^

\ \ \1990

COUNCIL OF EC

LARS (RATIO

—- ~

1 1 11991

ONOMIC ADVISERS

SCALE)

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: IIIIll P

Grossnationalproduct

2,732.03,052.63,166.03,405.73,772.24,014.94,231.64,515.64,873.75,200.85,465.1

3,212.53,545.83,851.84,107.94,297.34,647.65,009.85,289.3

5,375.45,443.35,514.65,527.3

5,557.75,612.45,670.8

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

1,732.61,915.12,050.72,234.52,430.52,629.02,797.43,009.43,238.23,450.13,657.3

2,117.02,315.82,493.42,700.42,868.53,079.13,332.63,518.5

3,588.13,622.73,693.43,724.9

3,742.83,789.03,841.8

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

437.0515.5447.3502.3664.8643.1659.4699.5747.1771.2741.0

409.6579.8661.8654.1648.8741.4747.5762.7

747.2759.0759.7698.3

660.0654.0684.8

Exports

Netexports

32.133.926.3

-6.1-58.9-78.0-97.4

-114.7-74.1-46.1-31.2

14.1-25.8-67.9

-103.2-108.9-115.0-70.3-35.3

-30.0-24.9-41.3-28.8

13.518.1

— 1.4

Eind importsand service

Exports

351.0382.8361.9352.5383.5370.9396.5449.6552.0626.2672.8

335.9364.7385.7369.2402.4485.8583.1642.8

661.3659.7672.7697.4

694.5700.8693.5

of goodsi

Imports

318.9348.9335.6358.7442.4448.9493.8564.3626.1672.3704.0

321.9390.5453.6472,4511.3600.7653.5678.1

691.3684.6714.1726.2

681.0682.6694.9

Total

530.3588.1641.7675.0735.9820.8872.2921.4962.5

1,025.61,098.1

671.8676.1764.5856.7888.9942.0

1,000.01,043.3

1,070.11,086.41,102.81,132.9

1,141.51,151.31,145.5

Governgoo

Total

208.1242.2272.7283.5310.5355.2366.5381.3380.3400.0424.0

293.2276.1326.0376.6368.8388.2401.1399.9

410.6421.9425.8437.6

443.8449.7436.8

ment pureds and ser

Federal

Nationaldefense

142.7167.5193.8214.4234.3259.1277.8294.6297.2301.1313.6

205.4221.5244.1268.6280.7296.0299.6299.2

307.2309.6312.6325.0

331.2325.7318.7

lases ofttces

Non-defense

65.474.878.969.176.296.088.786.783.198.9

110.4

87.754.681.9

108.088.192.2

101.6100.7

103.4112.3113.2112.6

112.6124.0118.1

andlocal

322.2345.9369.0391.5425.3465.6505.7540.2582.3625.6674.1

378.7400.0438.5480.1520.1553.9598.9643.4

659.6664.6677.0695.3

697.7701.6708.7

Final

2,740.33,028.63,190.53,412.83,704.54,003.64,224.84,487.34,847.55,172.55,470.2

3,272.43,514.83,806.84,100.74,309.44,591.94,993.65,264.3

5,387.25,429.95,505.65,558.2 1

5,591.95,652.55,688.3

„

A r°St'c

chases 1

2,699.83,018.73,139.73,411.83,831.14,092.84,329.04,630.34,947.85,246.95,496.4

3,198.53,571.63,919.74,211.24,406.24,762.65,080.15,324.6

5,405.35,468.25,555.95,556.1

5,544.25,594.35,672.2

1 ( JNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1982: IV.1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV.1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV

1990: I..IIIllIV

1991: IIIIII"

Grossnation-

alproduct

3,187.13,248.83,166.03,279.13,501.43,618.73,717.93,845.34,016.94,117.74,157.3

3,159.33,365.13,535.23,662.43,733.63,920.74,059.34,133.2

4,150.64,155.14,170.04,153.4

4,124.14,118.94,143.1

Persona!con-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,000.42,024.22,050.72,146.02,249.32,354.82,446.42,515.82,606.52,656.82,681.6

2,078.72,191.92,281.12,386.92,477.82,534.22,638.82,669.9

2,677.32,678.82,696.82,673.6

2,663.72,680.52,705.3

Total

509.3545.5447.3504.0658.4637.0639.6669.0705.7716.9688.7

408.8577.2655.7648.0615.2706.6696.2709.1

700.7700.7697.0656.3

623.7617.6651.2

Gross pdomestic in

Nonresi-dentialfixed

379.2395.2366.7361.2425.2453.5438.4449.8487.2506.1515.4

352.3390.4444.4460.9435.7462.3486.6508.4

514.6508.4519.3519.4

496.8498.5506.5

rivatevestment

Resi-dentialfixed

137.0126.5105.1149.3170.9174.4195.7196.4194.9187.0176.8

115.8159.9169.6179.4200.3195.8195.6181.8

188.3182.8173.0163.3

151.8152.4159.7

Changein

busi-ness

inven-tories

-6.923.9

-24.5-6.462.39.15.6

22.823.623.8

-3.6

-59.327.041.7

7.7-20.8

48.414.018.9

-2.29.54.7

-26.4

-25.0-33.3-15.1

Exportsgoods

Netexports

57.049.426.3

-19.9-84.0- 104.3— 129.7-118.5- 75.9-54.1-33.8

11.7-46.2^94.8

-125.3-135.4— 111.3-75.7-47.9

-35.4— 44.6-46.5-8.8

7.1-12.6-32.8

and impand ser

Ex-ports

388.9392.7361.9348.1371.8367.2397.1451.8534.7593.3631.5

336.0355.5376.6367.4406.5487.0555.3611.6

628.1620.1630.5647.2

648.0655.1655.3

orts of7ices

Im-ports

332.0343.4335.6368.1455.8471.4526.9570.3610.6647.4665.3

324.3401.6471.4492.6541.9598.3631.0659.4

663.5664.7677.0656.0

641.0667.6688.1

Total

620.5629.7641.7649.0677.7731.2761.6779.1780.5798.1820.8

660.1642.2693.2752.7776.0791.3799.9802.2

807.9820.2822.7832.3

829.6833.4819.4

Governgooc

Total

246.9259.6272.7275.1290.8326.0334.1339.6328.1334.9343.7

289.5266.0300.5340.6342.4347.7342.3332.7

333.0345.9346.0349.9

349.5354.2340.8

nent pures and se

Federal

Nation-al

defense

171.2180.3193.8206.9218.5237.2252. 1265.1260.7256.3258.7

201.4211.6225.3241.4255.8266.0261.1255.5

254.4256.5258.2265.7

267.5259.4254.1

bases ofvices

Non-defense

75.779.378.968.272.388.882.074.567.578.785.0

88.254.475.299.286.681.781.277.2

78.689.487.884.2

82.094.986.6

Stateand

local

373.6370. 1369.0373.9387.0405.2427.5439.5452.4463.2477.1

370.6376.2392.7412.1433.6443.6457.5469.5

475.0474.3476.7482.4

480.1479.1478.7

Finalsales

3,194.03,225.03,190.53,285.53,439. 13,609.63,712.43,822.53,993.24,094.04,160.9

3,218.63,338.13,493.53,654.73,754.43,872.34,045.24,114.4

4,152.84,145.64,165.34,179.8

4,149.04,152.24,158.2

Grossdomes-

ticpur-

chases :

3,130.13,199.43,139.73,299.13,585.43,723.03,847.63,963.84,092.84,171.84,191.1

3,147.63,411.33,630.03,787.63,869.04,032.04,134.94,181.1

4,185.94,199.74,216.54,162.2

4,117.04,131.54,175.9

1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis..

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990


1990: IIIIllIV

1991: IIIIll ".

nationalproduct

85.794.0

100.0103.9107.7110.9113.8117.4121.3126.3131.5

101.7105.4109.0112.2115.1118.5123.4128.0

129.5131.0132.2133.1

134.8136.3136.9

Total

86.694.6

100.0104.1108.1111.6114.3119.6124.2129.9136.4

101.8105.7109.3113.1115.8121.5126.3131.8

134.0135.2137.0139.3

140.5141.4142.0

Personal cexpen

Durablegoods

89.295.7

100.0102.1103.8104.8105.6108.2109.4110.9112.4

100.7103.1104.1104.7106.2108.9110.3111.4

112.5112.1112.3112.7

113.0113.0113.9

onsumptionditures

Nondura-ble goods

89.496.9

100.0102.1105.0107.5107.3112.2116.6122.8131.0

101.0103.1105.8108.7107.8113.9118.6124.5

128.3129.4131.5134.9

135.2135.4135.3

Services

83.992.6

100.0106.2111.6116.8122.4128.7134.5141.0147.7

102.7108.3113.5119.0124.9130.9137.0143.4

145.1146.6148.5150.4

152.1153.5154.7

Grossdomestic i

Nonresi-dentialfixed

85.193.4

100.098.897.997.799.398.9

100.2101.2101.7

100.798.397.997.9

100.099.0

101.8100.7

101.6101.6102.6100.9

101.4100.598.5

privatenvestment

Residen-tial fixed

89.496.6

100.0102.2106.0108.3111.1115.2119.3123.5125.5

99.1103.1107.2109.0112.4116.5120.6124.3

125.3125.3126.0125.7

125.5126.6127.4

Exports angoods am

Exports

90.297.5

100.0101.3103.2101.099.899.5

103.2105.5106.5

100.0102.6102.4100.5•99.099.7

105.0105.1

105.3106.4106.7107.8

107.2107.0105.8

. imports of1 services

Imports

96.0101.6100.097.497.195.293.799.0

102.5103.8105.8

99.397.296.295.994.4

100.4103.6102.8

104.2103.0105.5110.7

106.3102.2101.0

Gove

84.393.3

100.0103.1106.8109.0109.7112.3115.9119.4123.3

101.3103.8108.5110.6107.7111.7117.2120.2

123.3122.0123.0125.1

127.0126.9128.2

rnment pureser

Federal

Nationaldefense

83.492.9

100.0103.6107.2109.2110.2111.1114.0117.5121.2

102.0104.7108.3111.3109.7111.3114.7117.1

120.8120.7121.1122.3

123.8125.6125.4

lases of goo'ices

Non-defense

86.494.3

100.0101.4105.5108.2108.1116.3123.2125.8129.8

99.5100.3108.9108.8101.7112.8125.1130.4

131.5125.6128.9133.8

137.3130.7136.4

ds and

Stateand local

86.293.4

100.0104.7109.9114.9118.3122.9128.7135.1141.3

102.2106.3111.7116.5120.0124.9130.9137.1

138.9140.1142.0144.1

145.3146.4148.1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, ANDRELATED PRICE MEASURES

[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901987: I

IIIllIV

1988: IIIIllIV

1989: I11IllIV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: IIIIll'

Currentdollars

8.911.73.77.6

10.86.45.46.77.96.75.19.17.57.48.77.88.37.47.77.55.85.13.96.75.15.3

.92.24.04.2

Or

Constant(1982)dollars

-0.21.9

-2.53.66.83.42.73.44.52.51.05.24.24.16.65.13.62.72.73.61.61.7.3

1.7.4

1.4-1.6

-2.85

2.4

ss national pr

Implicitprice

deflator

9.09.76.43.93.73.02.63.23.34.14.13.53.13.51.72.74.44.74.7

3.93.93.23.84.84.73.72.85.24.51.8

jducl

Chain priceindex

9.09.46.34.13.93.32.53.33.74.34.34.33.13.33.13.34.24.84.44.74.43.13.76.14.13.73.65.23.32.1

Fixed-weighted

price index(1982

weights)

9.39.36.24.14.03.42.73.54.24.54.64.43.53.53.73.94.75.54.44.94.63,13.86.63.94.24.75,23.12.1

Currentdollars

10.610.57.19.08.88.26.47.67.66.56.07.39.68.93.79.27.48.28.14.86.67.04.08.23.98.03.51.95.05.7

Personal

Constant(1982)dollars

-0.21.21.34.64.84.73.92.83.61.9.9.7

4.54.3-.46.92.73.53.5

-.31.34.6-.81.1

.22.7

-3.4-1.5

2.53.8

consumption e

Implicitprice

deflator

10.79.25.74.13.83.22.44.63.84.65.06.44.84.44.1

2.34.34.64.65.25.12.25.06.83.65.46.93.52.61.7

spenditures

Chain priceindex

10.99.25.74.23.93.52.74.64.04.74.96.24.94.34.02.54.74.84.8

5.05.32.64.96.83.45.26.53.42.82.1

Fixed-weighted

price indexU982

weights)

10.59.05.64.24.03.52.74.64.14.85.26.35.14.34.32.64.85.14.95.05.72.74.77.43.15.77.13.32.61.9

NOTE .—Annual changes are from preceding year and quarterly changes are from preceding quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV . . .

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: III

Gross domeof nonf

corporate(billions c

Currentdollars

1,540.81,738.41,782.21,914.22,146.72,267.12,367.12,524.82,720.72,854.52,952.71,779.42,012.52,201.82,309.42,408.72,597.42,797.32,878-.52,907.52,960.02,979.12,964.12,956.92,984.8

stic productnancialbusiness

f dollars)

1982dollars

1,803.61,836.81,782.21,871.82,049.22,132.32,214.32,310.92,443.42,503.02,506.51,761.61,951.72,084.12,165.42,240.82,364.82,482.52,502.22,503.82,519.62,514.42,488.32,446.92,446.4

Totalcost andprofit 2

0.854.946

1.0001.0231.0481 .0631.0691.0931.1141.1401.1781.0101.0311.0561.0661.0751.0981.1271.1501.1611.1751.1851.1911.2081.220

Cur

Capita!consump-

tionallowances

with capitaleonsump-

adjusttnent

0.096.109.125.123.117.118.121.122.122.127.132.130.119.118.119.122.121.123.130.130.131.133.136.140.141

rent-dollar cc

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.077.090.094.098.100.102.104.104.105.109.116.096.097.101.102.104.104.106.111.113.113.117.119.124.125

st and profit

Compen-sation of

emplovees

0.583.632.676.676.683.699.708.720.737.760.791.685.676.689.704.713.726.747.769.777.787.797.804.814.822

per unit of

Netinterest

0.031.037.043.037.039.038.040.040.040.048.051.042.037.042.037.041.040.041.051.051.051.051.052.052.051

output (dolla

Corporattvaluation

Total

0.068.079.063.088.109.106.097.106.109.096.088.057.102.107.105.094.108.110.089.090.094.087080

.079

.082

s) '

profits withand capital cadjustments

Profitstax

liability

0.037.035.026.032.036.033.034.040.042.041.038.023.036.032.033.038.042.042.039.038.039.040.037.032.033

inventorynsurnption

Profitsaftertax 4

0.031.044.037.057.073.073.063.066.067.056.049.034.066.075.071.057.066.067.051.052.055.047.043.047.048

Outputper hour

of allemplovees

(1982dollars)

18.54718.69918.77419.34419.86720.19820.90221.20221.65821.60221.50918.80719.55419.93220.38921.05521.36721.68021.49121.40921.54721.50821.51821.461

' 2 1.490

Compen-sation per

hour ofall

emplovees(dollars)

10.80911.81512.68213.08513.57114.11214.79215.26415.87416.41717.020

12.88113.22113.74114.35015.01415.50616.08916.52916.64116.95017.14817.30117.462

' 17.658

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-lars.

2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withhe decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1982198319841985198(51987198819891990


1990: IIIIllIV

1991: IIIIll"

Nationalincome

2,518.42,719.53,028.63,234.03,412.63,660.33,984.94,223.34,418.4

2,548.22,851.53,096.13,312.83,473.13,791.54,104.14,267.1

4,350.34,411.34,452.44,459.7

4,456.44,493.2

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees1

1,907.02,020.72,213.92,367.52,511.42,686.42,905.13,079.03,244.2

1,931.12,092.72,272.72,426.72,571.22,770.32,986.73,128.6

3,180.43,232.53,276.93,286.9

3,299.33,335.73,371.7

Proprietowith in

valuationconsuladjusl

Farm

24.612.430.530.234.742.843.748.649.9

28.519.328.129.237.252.335.545.7

57.451.042.448.8

48.551.843.2

s' incomeventorvind capitalnptumments

Nonfarm

150.9178.4204.0225.6247.2280.6310.5330.7352.6

159.8188.6209.7235.0252.0293.0321.5336.0

346.6350.8355.6357.4

355.8365.2375.2

Rentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

adjust-ment

13.613.28.59.2

11.613.716.38.26.9

15.812.45.67.8

13.514.616.84.1

5.54.38.49.3

5.65.47.6

Corpora

Total

150.0213.7266.9282.3282.1308.3337.6311.6238.3

146.1248.5266.9291.4275.2323.1349.6290.9

296.8306.6300.7288.9

286.2284.4

te profits wconsul

Profits \vadjustme

consu

159.2196.7234.2222.6228.3255.9289.8286.1293.3

150.7223.4224.6228.4226.1268.6308.7275.3

285.5298.8208.7290.3

289.7284.1

h inventorynption adjust

th inventorynt and withomption adjus

Profitshcfore tax

169.6207.6240.0224.3221.6275.3316.7307.7304.1

164.1231.5226.1235.0234.1289.7331.1289.8

296.9299.3318.5304.1

281.5279.2

valuation anments

valuationut capitaltment

valuationadjust-ment

-10.4-10.9-5.8— 1.7

6.7-19.4-27.0-21.7-U.4

-13.4-8.1— 1.6-6.6-8.0

-21.1— 22.5-14.5

-11.4-.5

-19.8— 13.8

8.14.9

-3.2

capital

Capitalconsump-

tion

-9.217.032.759.753.852.447.825.5

4.9

-4.525.142.363.049.154.540.915.6

11.37.72.0

— 1.4

-3.59

6.4

Netinterest

272.3281.0304.8319.0325.5328.6371.8445.1466.1

266.9290.2313.1322.7324.0338.2394.1461.7

463.6466.2468.3468.4

460.9450.8445.5

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198219831984198519861987198819891990


1990: 1IIIllIV

1991: I11I l l "

con-

expendi-ures

2,050.72,234.52,430.52,629.02,797.43,009.43,238.23,450.13,657.3

2,117.02,315.82.493.42,700.42,868.53,079.13,332.63,518.5

3,588.13,622.73,693.43,724.9

3,742.83,789.03,841.8

Totaldurablegoods

252.7289.1335.5372.2406.0423.4457 .5474.6480.3

263.8310.0346.7373.2422.0427.4473.1471.2

492.1478.4482.3468.5

455.3453.7467.4

Durabl

Motorvehi-clesand

parts

108.9130.4157.4179.1196.2197.9212.2215.5213.0

115.7144.4162.3173.8201.1198.9217.8207.5

221.1212.4214.7203.9

190.9187.8196.8

3 goods

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

95.7107.1118.8129.9139.7148.8161.8171.4176.4

99.1112.4122.7134.7143.8151.1166.8173.0

178.9176.8176.4173.4

174.2176.5178.9

Other

48.151.659.363.270.076.783.587.890.9

49.053.261.864.777.177.488.590.7

92.089.391.291.3

90.289.491.8

Totalnon-

durable

771.0816.7867.3911.2942.0

1,001.31,060.01,130.01,193.7

786.6837.9879.6932.7952.1

1,019.91,088.01,148.8

1,174.71,179.01,205.01,216.0

1,212.71,221.71,229.5

Nor

Food

398.8421.9448.5471.6500.0530.7562.6595.3624.7

407.0430.8456.1482.5511.9539.0577.1602.2

616.4623.3629.8629.4

636.7642.8644.6

durable g

Cloth-ing andshoes

124.4135.1146.7156.4166.8178.4191.1204.6213.2

126.5141.1149.8160.6168.7182.2198.6208.7

212.9212.6215.8211.5

213.3218.4221.8

aods

Gaso-line

and oil

89.190.290.090.673.575.317.383.893.8

89.891.989.091.066.077.378.583.5

87.184.594.0

109.4

93.990.890.2

Other

158.7169.5182.1192.6201.7216.9229.1246.3261.9

163.4174.0184.7198.5205.5221.5233.9254.4

258.2258.6265.4265.6

268.7269.7272.9

Serv-

1,027.01,128.71,227.61,345.61,449.51,584.71,120.11,845.51,983.3

1,066.51,167.91,267.11,394.51,494.41,631.81,771.51,898.5

1,921.31,965.32,006.22,040.4

2,074.82,113.62,144.9

Retailnew pa

cars (mun

Do-mestics

5.86.88.08.28.27.11.57.16.9

6.07.47.77.07.76.67.56.2

7.06.87.26.6

6.06.16.4

sales ofssengerllions ofts)

Im-ports

2.22.42.42.83.23.23.12.82.6

2.52.62.63.13.43.33.02.6

2.82.72.52.4

2 22.42.3

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Kc'onornic Analvi-


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME''ersonal income rose $22.9 billion (annual rate) in September following a rise of $21.2 billion in August. WagesInd salaries rose $12.1 billion in September, compared with an increase of $12.9 billion in August.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

5,000

1983 1984

Mil l

1985

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1986

\OTHER INCOME

TRANSFER

PAYMENTS

I I I1987 1988

inn1989

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I l l l l l l l 1 1 11990

mill

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400

1991


[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19811982198319841985198619871988198919901990: Sept

OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept"

Totalpersonalincome

2,520.92,670.82,838.63,108.73,325.33,526.23,766.44,070.84,384.34,645.54,697.84,695.94,716.24,743.3

4,723.84,733.34,750.44,755.84,787.34,811.04,802.64,823.84,846.7

o

1,510.31,586.11,676.61,838.61,975.42,094.82,249.72,431.12,573.22,705.32,747.22,731.62,731.62,753.62,741.02,741.92,745.62,750.22,772.62,799.42,790.72,803.62,815.7

income

150.3163.6173.6182.9187.6199.3209.4225.5241.9258.1261.2262.2263.2264.2

265.2266.2267.2268.2269.2270.2271.2272.2273.2

Proprietor

Farm

30.724.612.430.530.234.742.843.748.649.938.539.154.552.939.647.258.753.554.247.743.542.443.7

' income 3

Nonfarm

156.1150.9178.4204.0225.6247.2280.6310.5330.7352.6357.0357.1357.6357.5353.8356.3357.4360.9365.8368.9371.1374.7379.7

Rentalincome ofpersons 4

13.313.613.28.59.2

11.613.716.38.26.9

10.010.88.88.36.85.14.95.05.55.66.27.29.5

Personaldividendincome

61.363.968.775.578.785.891.8

102.2114.4123.8125.3126.1126.8127.2127.2127.6125.3125.2125.6125.7126.3126.7127.2

Personalinterestincome

335.4369.7393.1444.7478.0493.2501.3547.9643.2680.4

686.8687.5688.1688.2

685.7681.8678.6676.2674.1672.5670.8669.4668.1

Transferpay-

ments 5

368.1410.6442.6456.6489.8521.5549.9587.7636.9694.8

701.2710.0714.0721.2741.6744.5750.1754.5759.7762.1764.3770.0772.8

Less:Personal

contributionsfor socialinsurance

104.5112.3120.1132.7149.3161.9172.9194.1212.8226.2

229.5228.4228,4229.9

237.2237.2237.4237.8239.3241.1241.4242.3243.0

Nonfarmpersonalincome 6

2,465.62,618.72,799.03,052.13,271.33,469.43,702.24,006.04,314.64,574.34,637.84,635.34,640.24,668.84,662.64,664.44,669.94,680.44,711.14,741.34,737.04,759.44,780.9

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofmployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of

e accruals over wage disbursements.Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

wag2

4 With capital consumption adjustment,5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,

and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to advance estimates, real per capita disposable personal income rose in the third quarter of 1991.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

v

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

CURRENT DOLLARS

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

1982 DOLLARS

1987

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL KATESSOURCE: DEPABTMENT Of COMMERCE

1988 1989 1990 1991


Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV1990: I

IIIll ....IV

1991: IIIIll '..

Prersona!income

2,258.52,520.92,670.82,838.63,108.73,325.33,526.23,766.44,070.84,384.34,645.5

2,729.22,941.83,188.33,399.13,597.83,890.94,186.24,469.24,562.84,622.24,678.54,718.54,735.84,784.74,824.4

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

Billi

340.5393.3409.3410.5440.2486.6512.9571.6591.6658.8699.4

411.1413.9459.7499.6534.4588.6607.3669.6675.1696.5709.5716.6714.6716.6716.7

riquals:ijisposaolepersonalincome

ons of dolla

1,918.02,127.62,261.42,428.12,668.62,838.73,013.33,194.73,479.23,725.53,946.1

2,318.12,527.92,728.62,899.53,063.43,302.33,578.93,799.63,887.73,925.73,969.14,001.94,021.34,068.14,107.7

Less:Personaloutlays *

rs

1,781.11,968.12,107.52,297.42,504.52,713.32,888.53,102.23,333.63,553.73,766.0

S

2,174.92,382.52,571.32,787.72,961.43,172.63,430.43,625.53,696.43,730.63,802.63,834.43,852.53,898.03,950.0

Equals:Personalsaving

136.9159.4153.9130.6164.1125.4124.992.5

145.6171.8180.1

easonally

143.1145.4157.3111.7102.0129.7148.5174.1191.3195.1166.5167.5168.7170.2157.7

Dispos-able

personalincome in

1982dollars

(billions)

2,214.32,248.62,261.52,331.92,469.82,542.82,635.32,670.72,800.52,869.02,893.5

adjusted ann

2,276.12,392.72,496.32,562.82,646.22,717.92,833.92,883.22,900.92,902.82,898.02,872.42,861.92,877.92,892.5

Per cdisposable

inc

Currentdollars

8,4219,2439,724

10,34011,25711,86112,46913,09414,12314,97315,695

ual rates

9,92910,72511,46712,06812,62913,48314,47015,21015,52715,63915,76515,84915,88716,03516,145

ipitapersonal

me

1982dollars

Dolla

9,7229,7699,7249,930

10,41910,62510,90510,94611,36811,53111,509

9,74910,15110,49110,66710,90911,09711,45811,54111,58611,56411,51111,37611,30711,34311,369

Per capitconsuexpen

Currentdollars

'S

7,6078,3208,8189,516

10,25310,98511,57612,33413,14413,86614,547

9,0689,825

10,47911,24011,82512,57213,47414,08414,33014,43214,67014,75214,78714,93415,100

i personalnptionlitures

1982dollars

8,7838,7948,8189,1399,4899,840

10,12310,31110,58010,67810,666

8,9049,2999,5879,935

10,21410,34710,66910,68710,69310,67110,71110,58910,52410,56510,633

Percentchange inreal percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Percei

-1.1.5

-.52.14.92.02.6

.43.91.4

-.2

1.29.11.73.3.3

6.41.2.1

1.6g

-1.8-4.6-2.4

1.3.9

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

It

7.17.56.85.46.14.44.12.94.24.64.6

6.25.85.83.93.33.94.14.64.95.04.24.24.24.23.8

Population!includingArmed^Forcesabroad(thou-

sands) "

227,754230,182232,549234,829237,051239,322241,660243,982246,358248,810251,420

233,466235,707237,946240,257242,579244,925247,329249,818250,392251,026251,767252,495253,114253,708254,420

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the second quarter of 1991, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $10.7 billion (annualrate) and net farm income rose $9.7 billion.

BULK

240

160

80

AH

DNS OF DOLL

^ — i

ARS* (RATIO

^=C= '

SCALE)

f 1r ^

GRC

\\

)SS FARM IN<

\ H

:OME

I ^

BILLIONS OF DOLLAR

^

S* (RATIOS*

r~:ALE>

200

160

120

80

60

40

20

10

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1989: I :IIIllIV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: I11"

Total '

149.3166.3163.5153.2170.2162.9156.5169.0173.8188.4194.3

189.8188.5184.9190.4

198.8190.5187.3200.7

187.0197.7

(

Cas

Total

139.7141.6142.6136.8142.8144.1135.2141.7150.2159.2169.1

153.7157.4163.9161.7

165.1165.9172.8172.5

162.5173.7

In

jross farm incom

h marketing rece

Livestock andproducts

68.069.270.369.672.969.871.576.078.883.789.7

81.680.883.688.9

89.588.090.890.4

86.783.9

come of farm ope

e

ipts

Crops

71.772.572.367.269.974.363.765.671.475.479.4

72.176.580.372.8

75.677.982.082.1

75.889.8

rators from farmi

inventorychanges 2

-6.36.5

— 1.4-10.9

6.0-2.3-2.4-2.8

4.14.13.1

3.24.34.44.4

4.73.62.51.7

1.51.1

ng

Productionexpenses

133.1139.4140.0137.9143.8131.9125.5127.7132.1140.2144.3

140.6141.3140.9138.1

142.0143.4143.8148.0

147.4148.4

Net farn

Currentdollars

16.126.923.515.326.331.031.041.341.848.250.0

49.247.344.052.3

56.847.143.452.8

39.649.3

i income

1982 dollars 3

18.828.623.514.724.527.927.235.134.438.238.1

39.537.634.740.9

43.935.932.939.7

29.436.2

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashicome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-vear inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averagerices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator.

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the second quarter of 1991, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $2.3 billion (annuarate) and profits after tax fell $5.8 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

360

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

360

-—

1 1 11982

f

//

*

ss

/

x— '

/

1 1 11983

r\w

^ %\

N

\

1 1 1

1984

PROFITS B

^\

PROF

v ^^\

,

1 1 1

1985

SEASONALLY ADJU.

EFORE TAX\ .^y

ITS AFTER 1\v

_Jt_r „ r--^*

T

* ^^y1

i i i1986

TED ANNUAL RATE

^

/

FAX — -^^S

* -~.

"\W LIABILITY

,--^-UNDIST

1 1 11987

s

/~s

__

.^-'— '

1

-T--?IBUTED PR(

1 1 1

1988

r\V

N

--s.

"V.

s

i i i1989

fS\

• — Nx

• — -..' "-

1 1 11990

*

"""

.

1 1 1

1991

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period


IIIllIV

1991: IIIIll"

Pr

Total 2

194.0202.3159.2196.7234.2222.6228.3255.9289.8286.1293.3150.7223.4224.6228.4226.1268.6308.7275.3285.5298.8298.7290.3289.7284.1

afits (before t

Total

159.6173.8131.2166.6203.3191.4195.2218.4246.5235.2236.4

121.6190.7193.9193.6193.4226.2261.9218.4232.6249.9241.1222.3221.4226.3

ax) with inve

Do

Financial

21.016.511.818.113.022.832.020.722.415.418.718.715.513.626.028.619.824.16.9

16.118.221.718.822.523.2

ntory valuati

nestic indust

Total 3

138.6157.3119.4148.5190.3168.6163.2197.8224.1219.8217.7102.9175.2180.3167.6164.8206.4237.8211.5216.5231.7219.3203.4

198.9203.0

on adjustmen

ries

Nonfinaneial

Manufac-turing

77.188.558.070.188.879.759.586.7

106.596.188.846.888.679.883.864.898.2

112.683.790.1

100.891.273.167.172.0

t 1

sale andretailtrade

21.632.534.638.951.244.144.137.937.138.741.533.643.151.838.541.037.842.341.939.244.439.542.846.247.6

Profitsbefore tax

237.1226.5169.6207.6240.0224.3221.6275.3316.7307.7304.7164.1231.5226.1235.0234.1289.7331.1289.8296.9299.3318.5304.1281.5279.2

Taxliability

84.881.163.177.293.996.4

106.3126.9136.2135.1132.159.888.187.099.8

113.1132.1142.1123.5129.9133.1139.1126.5115.1118.6

P

Total

152.3145.4106.5130.4146.1127.8115.3148.4180.5172.6172.5104.3143.4139.2135.2121.0157.6189.1166.3167.1166.1179.4177.6166.4160.6

rofits after ts

Dividends

54.763.666.971.579.083.391.398.2

110.0123.5133.968.573.980.884.093.6

102.2115.3127.7130.3133.0135.1137.2137.5136.4137.9

X

Undistrib-uted

profits

97.681.839.658.967.044.624.050.270.549.138.735.869.558.451.227.455.473.838.636.833.244.340.429.024.2

j ,valuation

adjustment

-43.1-24.2-10.4-10.9

-5.8-1.7

6.7-19.4-27.0-21.7-11.4-13.4

-8.1-1.6-6.6-8.0

-21.1-22.5-14.5-11.4

-.5-19.8-13.8

8.14.9

-3.2

1 Sec p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rt'st of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.



GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to advance estimates for the third quarter of 1991, nonresidential fixed investment fell $2.3 billion[annual rate) and residential investment rose $10.6 billion. There was a $17.5 billion decrease in inventories,following a decrease of $40.0 billion in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

700

600

500

400

300

0 --' \ /-•"_inn I I I I I I 1

1982 1983 1

SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1980


IIIllIV

1991: IIIIll"

•- ^

I I I I984 1 9i

[Billions of do

domesticinvestment

437.0515.5447.3502.3664.8643.1659.4699.9747.1771.2741.0409.6579.8661.8654.1648.8741.4747.5762.7747.2759.0759.7698.3660.0654.0684.8

FIXED INVti\

CHANGE ININVENT

''X.

1 1 1i5 1 98<!

lars; quarterly

Total

445.3491.5471.8509.4597.1631.8652.5671.2720.8742.9746.1469.5548.8616.8646.8660.9685.7731.3737.7758.9745.6750.7729.2694.1694.0702.3

I M t N l

V

BUSINESSORIES\

""*'

1 1 11987

ata at seasonal

Total

322.8369.2366.7356.9416.0442.9435.2444.9488.4511.9524.1354.9383.9435.0451.3435.8457.5495.3511.8523.1516.5532.8524.0503.6501.1498.8

1 1 11988

y adjusted annua

Fixed investment

Nonresidentiai

Structures

113.9138.5143.3124.0141.1153.2139.0133.7139.9146.2147.0137.6127.4146.6155.9133.7137.2141.2147.1148.8147.2149.8142.1139.5134.9125.4

1 1 11989

rates]

1Producers'

durableequipment

208.9230.7223.4232.8274.9289.7296.2311.2348.4365.7377.1217.3256.5288.4295.5302.2320.4354.0364.7374.3369.3383.0381.9364.1366.2373.4

'

1 1 11990

COUNCIL OF EC

Residential

122.5122.3105.1152.5181.1188.8217.3226.3232.5231.0222.0114.7164.9181.8195.5225.1228.236.0225.9235.9229.1217.9205.2190.5192.9203.5

300

- 200

100

o

1 1 1 -inn1991

DNOM1C ADVISERS

i Change in business1 inventories

Total Nonfarm

-8.3 -2.424.0 ; 18.3

— 24.5 ! -23.1-7.1 j .4

67.7 60.511.3 14.66.9 8.6

28.3 32.326.2 29.828.3 23.3

-5.0 -7.4-59.9 -51.1

31.0 21.345.0 41.3

7.2 23.7-12.2 -8.0

55.7 59.6| 16.2 35.0

25.0 24.1-11.8 -17.0

13.4 13.09.0 6.8

-30.8 —32.4— 34.2 —37.1— 40.0 —35.2-17.5 -14.4

icrcc, Bureau of Ecc


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAccording to the Commerce Department July-August 1991 survey, business spending for new plant and equipmentis expected to rise 0.5 percent in 1991. The rise in 1990 was 5.0 percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

600BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

400

300

200

100

__^^^

*s'

— --'

1 1 11983

^^ '

"

-.'""""

1 1 !1984

,.-

---'' ~-

1 I 11985

SEASONAL

AL

NOW

'--..

1 I I

1986

Y ADJUSTED ANNUA

^--]

\L INDUSTRIES

\MNUFACTURI

\WANUFACTUR

1 1 11987

RATES

^ "

.. '

NGJ-/

_ _ „ _ - -

NG

! 1 11988

__ -1*^~

_.-^-~~ ~~*"

--*^

1 1 11989

1 1 11990

r— —

_,

31 21\ \ \

1991

600

400

200

100

-^SURVEYED QUARTERLY-2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT 0"= COMMERCECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988..19891990 .1991 4

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: I11IllIV

1991: IIII l l4

IV

Allindus-tries

286.40324.73326.19321.16373.83410.12399.36410.52455.49507.40532.61535.13

487.58501.56514.40520.40

532.50534,55534.11530.13

535.50524.57539.53540.91

M

Total

112.60128.68123.97117.35139.61152.88137.95141.06163.45183.80192.61186.20

173.40180.86185.70191.63

192.16195.02194.05189.72

191.13187.35184.55181.76

anufacturi

Dura-ble

goods

54.8258.9354.5851.6164.5770.8765.6868.0377.0482.5682.5878.22

80.0282.3583.4383.83

86.0384.1582.4879.03

81.2479.6977.5474.43

Industries

ig

Non-durablegoods

57.7769.7569.3965.7475.0482.0172.2873.0386.41

101.24110.04107.97

93.3898.51

102.27107.80

106.14110.87111.57110.69

109.90107.66107.01107.33

surveyed

Total '

173.80196.06202 22203.82234 22257.24261.40269.46292.04323.60339.99348.93

314.18320.70328.70328.77

340.33339.53340.06340.41

344.37337.22354.98359.15

quarterly

No

Mining

12.7115.8114.1110.6411.8612.008.158.289.299.219.889.66

8.979.189.239.41

9.629.779.97

10.12

9.8910.099.708.96

imanufactu

Trans-portation

13.5612.6711.7510.8113.4414.5715.0515.0716.6318.8421.4722.53

17.6318.5020.8218.39

21.8421.9421.0821.18

23.2523.0522.0921.75

ing

Publicutilities

41.3247.1753.5852.9557.5359.5856.6156.2660.3766.2867.2167.13

65.8668.4465.3465.56

65.4164.6467.6870.24

67.0464.5868.4668.45

Com-mercial

andother

106.21120.41122.79129.41151.39171.09181.59189.84205.76229.28241.43249.60

221.72224.57233.31235.42

243.46243.18241.32238.87

244.19239.50254.73259.98

Totalnon-farmbusi-

ness 2

318.08358.77363.08359.73418.38454.93447.11461.51508.22563.93591.96

Manu-facturing

112.60128.68123.97117.35139.61152.88137.95141.06163.45183.80192.61186.20

173.40180.86185.70191.63

192.16195.02194.05189.72

191.13187.35184.55181.76

Addenda

Noli

Total

205.48230.09239.11242.38278.77302.05309.16320.45344.77380.13399.34

manufacti

Sur-veyedquar-terly

173.80196.06202.22203.82234.22257.24261.40269.46292.04323.60339.99348.93

314.18320.70328.70328.77

340.33339.53340.06340.41

344.37337.22354.98359.15

ring

Sur-vevt'd

annual-ly3

31.6834.0436.8938.5644.5544.8147.7550.9952.7356.5359.35

1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May19H4 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annu-ally") for data for these industries.

2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.

3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medicai services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate.

4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1991, corrected for biasts.l

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESIn October, civilian employment fell 198,000 and unemployment rose 140,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

126

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

126SEASONALIY ADJUSTED

122

118

114

110

106

102

98

12

122

118

114

110

106

102

98

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

V

CIVILIANEMPLOYMENT

UNEMPLOYMENT

I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I M

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVERSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

198119821983198419851986*1987198819891990

1990:OctNovDec

1991:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct

Noninstitu-tional

populationincludingresidentArmedForcesNSA

171,775173,939175,891178,080179,912182,293184,490186,322188,081189,686

190,095190,312190,483

190,592190,717190,703190,836190,980191,173191,443191,589191,746191,903

Kesi-dent

ArmedForcesNSA

1,6451,6681,6761,6971,7061,7061,7371,7091,6881,637

1,5701,6151,617

1,6151,6021,4601,4561,4581,5051,6041,6161,6241,614

Labor forceincludingresidentArmedForces

110,315111,872113,226115,241117,167119,540121,602123,378125,557126,424

126,445126,338126,791

126,253126,678126,786127,128126,690127,134126,818126,520127,231127,163

Employ-ment

includingresidentArmedForces

102,042101,194102,510106,702108,856111,303114,177116,677119,030119,550

119,303119,001119,191

118,537118,520118,214118,854118,049118,389118,316118,032118,789118,581

Civilianlabor force

108,670110,204111,550113,544115,461117,834119,865121,669123,869124,787

124,875124,723125,174

124,638125,076125,326125,672125,232125,629125,214124,904125,607125,549

Total

100,39799,526

100,834105,005107,150109,597112,440114,968117,342117,914

117,733117,386117,574

116,922116,918116,754117,398116,591116,884116,712116,416117,165116,967

Civilian e

Agricul-tural

3,3683,4013,3833,3213,1793,1633,2083,1693,1993,186

3,1753,1853,253

3,1633,2223,0983,1563,2723,3083,2393,2663,3063,195

mployment

Nonag

Total

97,03096,12597,450

101,685103,971106,434109,232111,800114,142114,728

114,558114,201114,321

113,759113,696113,656114,243113,319113,576113,474113,150113,859113,772

ricultural

Part timefor

economicreasons 1

4,4995,8525,9975,5125,3345,3455,1224,9654,6574,860

5,1355,1635,262

5,1785,8035,8895,9565,7025,4255,6055,6436,1306,116

Unempl

Total

8,27310,67810,7178,5398,3128,2377,4256,7016,5286,874

7,1427,3377,600

7,7158,1588,5728,2748,6408,7458,5018,4888,4428,582

jyment

15weeksandover

2,2853,4854,2102,7372,3052,2321,9831,6101,3751,504

1,5911,7271,739

1,8291,9752,1842,2292,2342,5732,3482,3962,3622,537

Cn

Labor

partici-pationrate(per-

cent) 2

63.964^064.064.464.865.365.665.966.566.4

66.266.166.3

66.066.166.266.466.166.266.065.766.166.0

ilian

Employ-ment/

populationratio(per-

cent) 2

59.057.857.959.560.160.761.562.363.062.7

62.462.262.3

61.961.861.762.061.561.661.561.361.661.5

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full- "Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable 'time work, etc. estimation procedures.

2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. , „ . .Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-ith earlier data because of change in

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn October, the civilian unemployment rate rose slightly, to 6.8 percent. The overall unemployment rate also roseslightly, to 6.7 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

25

20

15

10

TEENAGERS(16-19)

1991 1987

V

1988

MEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

WOMEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

11 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 11989 1990

iI I 1 I I I! I I I

1991

UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJune ....JulyAugSeptOct

Unem-ploy-mentrate,all

work-ers *

7.59.59.57.47.16.96.15.45.25.4

5.65.86.0

6.16.46.86.56.86.96.76.76.66.7

A 11All

civilianwork-

ers

7.69.79.67.57.27.06.25.55.35.5

5.15.96.1

6.26.56.86.66.97.06.86.86.76.8

B

Men20 yearsand over

6.38.88.96.66.26.15.44.84.54.9

5.25.45.6

5.66.36.56.26.56.66.56.56.56.4

y sex and a

Women20 years

andover

6.88.38.16.86.66.25.44.94.74.8

4.95.15.3

5.35.45.75.55.85.95.45.75.55.8

Unemp

ge

Bothsexes16-19years

19.623.222.418.918.618.316.915.315.015.5

16.216.416.6

18.217.118.718.119.119.220.619.018.018.8

oyment ra

White

6.78.68.46.56.26.05.34.74.54.7

4.95.05.3

5.55.96.25.86.16.26.26.16.06.0

te (percen

By race

B\ackand

other

14.217.317.814.413.713.111.610.410.010.1

10.611.011.1

10.710.711.111.211.511.410.511.111.011.5

t of civilia

Black

15.618.919.515.915.114.513.011.711.411.3

ll.l12.212.2

12.111.812.312.613.013.111.812.312.112.7

n labor force

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

7.39.39.27.16.86.65.85.25.05.3

5.45.75.8

6.06.46.76.46.66.76.56.56.46.5

in group)

Bys

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

4.36.56.54.64.34.43.93.33.03.4

3.53.73.8

4.04.34.54.44.44.74.34.34.54.2

elected grou]

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

10.411.712.210.310.49.89.28.18.18.2

8.58.78.7

9.09.19.09.99.19.28.39.68.99.5

)S

Eu\\-time

workers

7.39.69.57.26.86.65.85.24.95.2

5.55.75.8

6.06.46.56.36.56.66.56.56.46.6

Part-time

workers

9.410.510.49.39.39.18.47.67.37.4

1.17.37.6

7.77.69.18.19.08.68.38.28.38.2

Laborforce

time losttper-

cent) 2

8.511.010.98.68.17.97.16.35.96.2

6.66.76.9

".0".5".7^.6

. t".6".5".6~.7~.7

1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per-

cent of potentially available labor force hours.

12

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSn October, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 5-14 weeks,and for 27 weeks and over fell; the percentage for 15-26 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment roseto 14.3 weeks and the median fell to 7.4 weeks.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

60

50

20

10 -

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

LESS THAN5 WEEKS

\

30 ^N -v

1987 1988

5-14WEEKS

\

15-26WEEKS

V

27 WEEKSAND OVER

1989 1990

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION"

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

1991 1987

REENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

1988 1990 1991


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct

Unemploy-ment

(thousands)

8,27310,67810,7178,5398,3128,2377,4256,7016,5286,874

7,1427,3377,600

7,715• 8,158

8,5728,2748,6408,7458,5018,4888,4428,582

F

Lessthan

5weeks

41.736.433.339.242.141.943.746.048.646.1

44.144.743.5

44.142.440.939.842.538.739.940.439.038.0

Dur

ercent di

5-14weeks

30.731.027.428.730.231.029.630.030.332.0

33.631.833.4

32.233.433.833.231.632.332.331.033.332.4

ation of

stributio

15-26weeks

13.616.015.412.912.312.712.712.011.211.8

12.512.812.5

12.712.914.414.814.015.914.414.614.416.4

memploy

i

27weeks

andover

14.016.623.919.115.414.414.012.19.9

10.1

9.810.810.6

11.011.311.012.111.913.113.414.013.413.1

ment

Numb

Aver-age

(mean)

13.715.620.018.215.615.014.513.511.912.1

12.012.412.4

12.412.813.013.712.914.213.914.014.014.3

er ofks

Medi-

6.98.7

10.17.96.86.96.55.94.85.4

5.95.95.9

5.96.16.67.06.56.96.67.27.57.4

Be

Joblosers

51.658.758.451.849.848.948.046.145.748.3

49.951.249.9

53.055.554.954.553.655.154.455.456.354.7

ason forpercent

Jobleav-ers

11.27.97.79.6

10.612.313.014.715.714.8

13.713.613.5

11.712.212.611.912.112.311.710.510.911.5

unemploydistributi

Reen-trants

25.422.322.525.627.126.226.627.028.227.4

26.826.328.0

26.624.524.424.725.324.224.225.123.624.2

ment:an

Newentrants

11.911.111.313.012.512.512.412 210.49.5

9.68.98.7

8.77.88.28.99.08.49.79.09.29.6

Staprogrs

Insuredunem-

ployment

Weekly a

3,0474,0613,3962,4762,6112,6502,3322,0812,1582,522

2,7652,9122,970

3,0703,2183,4153,5183,5503,4533,3323,2573,346

"3,365

euns

Initialclaims

verage, t

460583438377396378328310330388

431454461

445489509475438423406421427431

Insuredunem-

ployment,all

regularprograms(unadjust-

ed) '

lousands

3,4104,5943,7752,5612,6932,7462,4012,2482,3242,715

2,2942,7223,222

4,0124,1454,1273,7823,4123.1823,2913,0172,815

1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State ex-tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultyral employment as measured by the payroll survey was virtually unchanged in October, at 109.0million.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

110

100 p

90

70

50

40 -

30

201987

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

1988 1990

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)30

ll I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1^ 1987

him1988

X- CONSTRUC

imii i im1989

r •noNIMM |

19901 1 1 III II III,

1991 ^

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: GetNov ....Dec

1991: JanFebMarAprMay....June...July....Aug r..Sept r..Oct "...

T t iotalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

91,15689,56690,20094,49697,51999,525

102,200105,536108,329109,971

109,982109,761109,621

109,418109,160108,902108,736108,887108,885108,859108,971109,019109,018

Total 2

25,49723,81323,33424,72724,85924,55824,70825,17325,32224,958

24,70524,48124,375

24,18124,03923,87723,79423,84723,79223,79823,82623,79223,727

Goods-

Con-struction

4,1883,9053,9484,3834,6734,8164,9675,1105,1875,136

5,0224,9624,911

4,7974,7924,7204,6884,7154,7104,6954,6914,6974,668

reducing in

»

Total

20,17018,78118,43419,37819,26018,96519,02419,35019,44219,111

18,97318,80718,749

18,67118,53218,44318,39618,42618,37818,40218,44218,41118,379

dustries

anufacturin

Durablegoo s

12,08211,01410,70711,47911,46411,20311,16711,38111,42011,115

11,00010,86710,828

10,77010,65210,58410,56010,57510,53410,54610,55310,53110,496

g

Nondur-able

goods

8,0897,7677,7267,8997,7967,7617,8587,9698,0227,995

7,9737,9407,921

7,9017,8807,8597,8367,8517,8447,8567,8897,8807,883

Total

65,65965,75366,86669,76972,66074,96777,49280,36383,00785,014

85,27785,28085,246

85,23785,12185,02584,94285,04085,09385,06185,14585,22785,291

Trans-portation

andpublic

utilities

5,1655,0824,9545,1595,2385,2555,3725,5275,6445,826

5,8555,8525,867

5,8665,8345,8245,8145,8195,8095,8095,8205,8255,831

Se

Whole-sale

trade

5,3765,2965,2865,5745,7365,7745,8656,0556,2216,205

6,1906,1806,166

6,1386,1196,1056,0866,0856,0686,0646,0506,0476,041

rvice-produ

Retailiveiantrade

15,17215,16115,59516,52617,33617,90918,46219,07719,54919,683

19,66319,62819,579

19,54219,46419,37819,32419,33919,34519,34719,34319,33919,292

cing industr

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

5,2985,3415,4685,6895,9556,2836,5476,6496,6956,739

6,7466,7406,733

6,7366,7326,7356,7186,7126,7036,6886,6876,6916,695

es

Services

18,61919,03619,69420,79721,99923,05324,23525,66927,12028,240

28,47928,52528,548

28,59028,58328,57628,57628,64528,71228,73328,83128,91829,019

Gover

Total

16,03115,83715,86916,02416,39416,69317,01017,38617,77918,322

18,34418,35518,353

18,36518,38918,40718,42418,44018,45618,42018,41418,40718,413

nraent

Federal

2,7722,7392,7742,8072,8752,8992,9432,9712,9883,085

2,9802,9642,948

2,9522,9512,9512,9532,9522,9712,9632,9672,9792,984

1 Includes al! full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments whoreceived pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes propri-etors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derivedirom this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian laborforce, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not a£ work because of industrial disputes, bad

14

weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of theworking-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employingestablishments.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLYEARNINGS

PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19811982198319841985..19861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug '.Sept 'Oct"

Aver

privatenonagri-

cultural '

35.234.835.035.234.934.834.834.734.634.5

34.234.434.6

34.134.334.234.034.334.634.134.334.534.3

age weekly ]

Manufa

Total

39.838.940.140.740.540.741.041.141.040.8

40.740.640.7

40.440.340.340.240.440.840.741.041.040.9

ours

eturing

Overtime

2.82.33.03.43.33.43.73.93.83.6

3.63.53.5

3.43.33.33.33.43.73.73.83.73.7

Average

Totalnonagne

Currentdollars

$7.257.688.028.328.578.768.989.289.66

10.02

10.1010.1310.17

10.1810.2010.2410.2810.3210.3710.3610.4010.4210.41

gross hourly

arivateultural '

1982dollars 2

$7.697.687.797.807.777.817.737.697.647.53

7.437.437.44

7.427.437.467.477.477.497.477.497.487.47

earnings

Manufac-turing

$7.998.498.839.199.549.739.91

10.1910.4810.83

10.9610.9610.99

11.0211.0311.0511.1211.1511.1911.2211.2511.2611.28

Totalnonagric

Currentdollars

$255.20267.26280.70292.86299.09304.85312.50322.02334.24345.69

345.42348.47351.88

347.14349.86350.21349.52353.98358.80353.28356.72359.49357.06

privateultural l

1982dollars *

$270.63267.26272.52274.73271.16271.94269.16266.79264.22259.72

254.17255.66257.41

253.02254.81255.07253.83256.32259.25254.89257.00258.07256.14

Average

C

Manufac-turing

$318.00330.26354.08374.03386.37396.01406.31418.81429.68441.86

446.07444.98447.29

445.21444.51445.32447.02450.46456.55456.65461.25461.66461.35

gross weeklj

urrent dollar

Construc-tion

$399.26426.82442.97458.51464.46466.75480.44495.73513.17526.40

515.59530.46536.77

523.13533.65526.67532.50533.40532.64532.38533.25537.35538.75

earnings

s

Retailtrade

$157.99163.83171.13174.47174.81175.80178.80183.62188.72194.69

193.69196.02196.31

194.14196.48197.34197.95200.33202.59199.65201.34203.04200.50

Percent chyear ear

pnnonagne

Currentdollars

8.54.75.04.32.11.92.53.03.83.4

2.23.34.0

2.42.42.32.52.93.11.93.02.83.4

nge from aier, totalateultural 3

1982dollars

1.5-1.2

2.0.8

-1.3.3

1.0-.91.0

-1.7

-3.8-2.8-2.0

-2.9-2.5-2.2-2.1-1.9-1.4-2.3-.5-.3

.7

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical

workers (on a 1982 = 100 base).

3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY

Period

1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec . .1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec . . .1989: Dec1990: Dec

1988: MarJuneSeptDec



1991: MarJuneSept

Index

Totalcompensa-

tion

71.275.880.184.087.390.193.197.6

102.3107.0

94.595.796.697.898.8

100.0101.3102.4103.8105.1106.2107.2108.4109.7110.9

(June 1989 =

Wages andsalaries

73.077.681.484.888.391.194.198.0

102.0106.1

95.096.196.998.099.1

100.0101.1102.2103.3104.4105.4106.2107.3108.4109.2

100)

Benefits '

66.671.476.781.784.687.590.596.7

102.6109.4

Seasonall

93.194.595.797.198.199.8

101.5103.1105.1106.7108.4109.9111.3113.2115.3

Totalcompensa-

tion

Not s

2.01.31.31.3.6.7.6

1.01.1.8

r adjusted

1.31.3.9

1.2

1.01.21.31.1

1.41.31.0.9

1.11.21.1

months earlie

Wages andsalaries

easonally ad

1.81.21.11.2.6.6.6

1.0.8.7

0.81.2.8

1.11.1.9

1.11.11.11.11.0.8

1.01.0.7

Percent ch

Benefits '

usted

2.11.41.31.4.5.6

1.01.01.21.0

2.41.51.31.51.01.71.71.61.91.51.61.41.31.71.9

ange from

1

Totalcompensa-

tion

9.96.55.74.93.93.23.34.8

4.8

4.6

Not se

3.84.54.44.8

4.64.54.84.85.25.24.94.64.44.44.5

2 months earli

Wages andsalaries

8.86.34.94.24.13.23.34.14.14.0

asonally adjti

3.33.83.74.14.24.14.34.14.24.54.24.0

4.03.73.7

?r

Benefits L

12.17.27.46.53.53.43.46.96.16.6

sted

5.96.46.86.95.45.66.06.17.26.96.86.65.86.26.4

1 Employer costs for employee benefits.

NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from theinfluence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.

Data exclude farm and household workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: I

IIinIV

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: InmIV

1991: In r.HI"....

198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901988: I

nmIV

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: III r.Ill "....

1 Output refers to2 Hours of all pe

workers. Estimates3 Wages and sala

benefit plans. Also iemployed.

4 Hourly compens

Output pallpe

Businesssector

99.2100.7100.0102.3104.9107.1109.5110.7113.2112.8112.4100.6103.2105.3108.0109.4111.9113.2112.9113.6113.1113.0113.1112.8112.2112.0112.4112.7112.3112.3112.2112.8

-0.21.5

-.72.32.52.02.31.12.2

-.4-.44.7

-1.12.5

-1.6— .5

.4-1.3-1.9-.71.4.9

-1.2-.0-.52.3

gross domesrsons engageased primari

ries of emploncludes an e.

ation divided

;r hour ofrsons

Nonfarmbusinesssector

99.9100.9100.0102.9105.1106.5108.7109.7112.5111.9111.2100.4103.8105.4107.1108.4110.9112.2112.1112.8112.9112.1112.1111.9111.3111.0111.3111.51°11.2111.2111.2111.8

-0.31.0

-.92.92.11.32.01.02.5

-.5-.64.8-.52.7.1

-2.8.1•y

-2.2-1.1

1.2.6

-.8.0

-.32.4

ic product ord in the seely on establislrees plus emtimate of wa

by the consu

Outf

Businesssector

101.1103.2100.0104.2113.0117.7121.3126.4133.0135.8136.199.5

107.6114.5119.3122.2129.4131.2132.6133.8134.5135.6135.9136.1135.5136.0136.4136.5135.4133.7133.6134.5

-1.12.13.14.28.44.23.14.15.32.1

.25.74.63.52.03.5

.9

.6-1.8

1.41.2.5

-3.4-4.7-.52.9

ginating in thor, includingment data.

3loyera' contrfes, salaries,

Tier price ind€

ut '


101.7103.4100.0105.0113.7118.1121.6126.8134.0136.7136.999.3

108.7115.1119.6122.4129.7131.6133.4134.8136.0136.4136.8137.1136.3136.8137.2137.4136.1134.5134.3135.3

Pe

-1.21.73.35.08.33.93.04.25.72.0.2

5.95.64.13.61.21.3.6

-2.11.41.2.4

-3.6-4.8-.43.0

e sector in IShours of pro

butions for sand suppleme

x for all urba

Hourspers

Businesssector

19f

101.9102.5100.0101.8107.6109.9110.8114.2117.5120.4121.198.9

104.3108.7110.5111.7115.6115.8117.5117.8118.8120.0120.1120.7120.7121.3121.3121.2120.5119.1119.1119.2

•cent ehan

-0.9.6

-2.51.85.72.1.8

3.03.02.4.6.9

5.81.03.74.0

.51.9.1

2.1-.2-.4

-2.1-4.7-.0

.6

82 dollars.jrietors and

cial insurancntal payment

n consumers.

of allHIS 2


32 = 100;

101.8102.5100.0102.0108.1110.9111.9115.5119.1122.2123.198.9

104.7109.2111.7112.9117.0117.3119.1119.5120.5121.7122.1122.5122.5123.3123.3123.2122.4120.9120.8121.0

*e; quarte

-0.8.7

-2.42.06.02.5

.93.23.12.6

.71.16.11.43.54.11.11.3.1

2.6-.0

J

-2.8-4.9

— .1.6

mpaid family

e and privatefor the self-

Compensboi

Businesssector

|uarterly i

85.193.0

100.0103.8108.0112.8118.6123.1128.6133.0138.4102.1105.3109.5115.2120.8125.5126.3127.9129.7130.8131.8132.8133.4134.2135.7137.7139.4140.6142.0143.6144.8

rly data at

10.69.37.53.84.14.45.23.74.53.44.02.55.25.83.33.22.91.82.54.66.15.03.34.04.63.5

5Cun

NOTEFerce

differ slif

Sourc

ation perr 3


ata seasoi

85.193.1

100.0104.0108.1112.5118.2122.4127.8132.1137.2102.1105.2109.6114.6120.3124.8125.5127.1128.8130.0131.0131.7132.4133.3134.6136.6138.2139.5140.9142.5143.8

seasonal]

10.69.47.44.03.94.15.13.64.43.43.92.45.15.53.73.12.22.32.64.05.95.03.74.24.63.5

ent dollar gro

— Data relatt changes arhtly from per

: Departmen

Real comper h

Businesssector

lally adjus

99.798.8

100.0100.6100.4101.2104.5104.5104.9103.5102.2100.6100.5100.4102.0105.5105.0104.8104.9105.1104.8104.4103.6103.2102.9102.2102.7102.3101.4101.5102.1102.3

y adjusted

-2.5-1.0

1.3.6

-.2.8

3.2.1.4

-1.3-1.3-.6

.5

.6-1.0

1.7-3.0-1.3-1.4

2.62.1

-1.7-3.4

.52.4.5

ss domestic p

to all persone from prececent changes

of Labor, Bu

pensationour 4


ted

99.698.8

100.0100.7100.4100.9104.1104.0104.3102.8101.3100.6100.4100.4101.5105.1104.4104.2104.3104.4104.2103.7102.7102.5102.2101.3101.8101.4100.6100.8101.4101.5

annual ra

2.5-.81.2.7

-.4.5

3.2-.1

.3-1.4-1.5

n

A.3

-.6-1.8-3.8-.8

-1.3-3.2

2.0-1.8-3.0

.72.5.5

roduct divide

s engaged ining period abased on inde

reau of Labo

Unit lab

Businesssector

85.892.4

100.0101.4102.9105.4108.4111.2113.7118.0123.1101.5102.0104.0106.7110.4112.1111.5113.3114.2115.6116.6117.3118.3119.6121.1122.5123.7125.2126.4128.0128.4

tes

10.97.78.31.41.52.32.82.62.23.84.4

-2.16.43.35.03.72.53.24.55.34.74.14.64.15.11.2

by constant

the sector,nd are basedxes shown he

Statistics.

or costs


85.292.3

100.0101.0102.8105.6108.8111.6113.7118.1123.4101.7101.3104.0107.1110.9112.6111.9113.4114.2115.2116.9117.5118.3119.8121.3122.7124.0125.4126.7128.2128.6

11.08.38.41.01.82.83.02.51.93.94.4

-2.35.62.73.56.02.03.05.05.24.74.44.64.24.91.1

dollar gross <

on original (re.

Implicdefla

Businesssector

86.294.4

100.0103.3106.8109.5111.8114.8118.2122.8127.5101.4104.8107.9110.5112.8115.7116.2117.5118.9120.3121.2122.5123.3124.3125.8127.2128.2128.8130.3131.8132.1

9.09.65.93.33.32.52.12.73.03.93.81.74.84.74.93.14.32.53.54.64.63.22.04.64.71.1

omestic prodi

ata; they the

t pricetor 5


85.794.0

100.0103.5106.6109.8112.3115.3118.4123.0127.7101.5104.7107.9111.0113.4116.2116.6117.8118.8120.5121.4122.7123.5124.7125.8127.3128.4129.2130.7132.0132.4

9.79.76.33.53.03.02.32.72.73.93.81.44.13.45.92.84.42.63.93.84.83.62.54.54.21.3

ct.

refore mav

16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production was unchanged in October, after rising slightly in September. Capacity utilization fell slightlyin October.

INDEX, 1987 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

115TOTAL lh>

r^/^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

DUSTRIAL

/•—I•

1 1 1 M M i l l

'RODUCTIC

r~/~— — » -

M i l l M M !

N

*""" ^

i i n 1 1 M i M

v/—

M II 1 1 i M II

INDEX, 1987 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

130

— CAPACI(TOTAL

-~f~^\/^

'

II M 1 i M M !

1987

W UTILIZATNDUSTRY)

r^

M 1 M 1 1 1 1 M

1988

ON RATE -

^~\^-

1 1 M M 1 1 1 1 1

1989

K "~~\V

M 1 1 M M 1 M

1990

\X~"M 1 1 M M M 1

1991


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly r

Aug r.Sept r

Oct"

Toindu

prodi

1987 = 100

84.185.781.984.992.894.495.3

100.0105.4108.1109.2

109.9108.3107.2

106.6105.7105.0105.5106.4107.3108.1108.0108.2108.2

taltrialction

Percent

from yearearlier

1.91.9

-4.43.79.31.71.04.95.42.61.0

2.0.2

-1.3

-.8-2.6-3.6-3.0-2.7

2 5— 2.1-2.3-2.2-1.6

Total

78.880.376.680.989.391.694.3

100.0105.8108.9109.9

110.7108.9107.5

107.0106.1105.2105.9106.6107.5108.3108.4108.9108.9

Industry pro<

Manufacturing

Durable

75.777.472.776.888.491.893.9

100.0107.6110.9111.6

112.5109.9107.5

107.2106.1105.0106.0106.7107.3108.1107.9108.6108.3

uction indexes

Nondurable

83.184.582 587.090.891.594.9

100.0103.6106.4107.8

108.4107.7107.4

106.8106.0105.4105.9106.5107.6108.6109.0109.3109.5

, 1987 = 100

Mining

110.0114.3109.3104.8111.9109.0101.0100.0101.8100.5102.6

102.6103.3103.4

101.7102.9101.5100.9100.2102.1102.7101.5100.7100.5

Utilities

95.994.391.893.697.099.596.3

100.0104.4107.1108.0

109.2106.9108.8

107.6104.6106.4105.9111.4111.5110.9110.2108.5108.6

Capacityrate, pt

Totalindustry

82.180.975.075.881.180.379.281.484.084.283.0

83.081.680.6

80.079.178.478.679.179.680.079.879.879.6

utilizationrcent l

Manufac-turing

80.278.872.874.980.479.579.081.483.983.982.3

82.280.779.4

78.978,077.277.577.878.378.778.678.878.6

1 Output as percent of rapacity. : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19811982 . . . .19831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly r

Aug T

Sept 'Oct"

Total

82.180.883.091.094.295.7

100.0105.6109.1110.9

112.3110.2109.2

109.1108.3108.1108.7109.3110.1110.2109.8110.5110.6

Co

Total

85.884.588.892.893.796.8

100.0104.0106.7107.3

108.6106.5105.7

105.6104.7104.7105.5106.6108.0108.3108.4109.2109.5

I

nsumer gc

Dura-ble

goods

74.068.779.791.091.694.5

100.0104.9107.9106.2

106.999.496.0

97.695.295.999.3

101.1104.2105.5104.0107.6107.7

^nal produc

ods

Nondur-able

goods

89.689.791.993.494.497.6

100.0103.7106.4107.6

109.1108.5108.4

107.8107.3107.1107.2108.1109.0109.0109.6109.7110.0

Produ

ts

f

Total '

78.277.076.889.294.894.5

100.0107.6112.3115.5

117.0115.1113.6

113.6112.9112.5112.8112.7112.8112.8111.7112.1111.9

cts

jquipment

ness

76.172.971.985.491.193.2

100.0111.8119.1123.1

125.4122.9121.2

121.6120.6120.3121.3121.7121.9122.5121.3122.6122.6

De-fense

spaceequip-ment

58.565.771.878.989.496.0

100.098.097.497.3

97.396.295.8

94.494.593.992.591.591.090.090.089.088.6

Intern

Total

77.075.180.386.288.392.0

100.0104.4106.8107.7

107.0106.2106.0

103.8102.6101.3101.2102.7104.0104.0104.2103.9103.6

lediate pro

Con-

supplies

78.472.280.286.289.193.8

100.0104.4106.1105.2

103.1101.8101.0

97.796.494.094.995.897.496.996.596.796.5

iucts

Busi-nesssup-plies

75.777.080.386.287.790.7

100.0104.4107.3109.4

109.7109.2109.4

108.1106.8106.4105.6107.5108.5109.0109.6108.9108.6

Mat<

Total

92.885.188.396.696.695.9

100.0105.6107.4107.8

108.3106.8105.3

104.8103.9102.6103.4104.5105.4107.0107.2107.2107.1

r ials

Ener-gy

104.3100.798.9

103.8103.499.4

100.0101.8101.4102.1

102.3101.6102.0

101.1101.1101.3101.1102.4103.4104.1103.2102.6102.6

1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.

[1987^100; monthly data season; [justed]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulv r

Aug r

Sept 'Oet"

Primary

Total

117.583.291.0

102.4101.893.8

100.0110.3109.2108.4

108.6109.1104.2

99.799.594.794.596.996.4

101.2103.0102.7102.3

metals

Ironandsteel

135.186.296.1

105.9104.590.8

100.0113.8109.3109.9

110.3112.6107.3

99.098.092.091.694.092.999.5

100.9100.9100.6

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

91.183.285.593.394.593.8

100.0106.2107.2105.9

106.4104.3101.9

101.799.197.898.099.199.8

100.9101.3101.5101.4

Durable m

Non-electri-

calmachin-

ery

65.963.964.380.886.890.4

100.0113.8121.8126.5

128.1126.3124.7

125.5124.5123.1123.5123.6123.4123.9123.3123.5123.3

anufactures

Electri-cal

machin-ery

75.475.980.394.193.194.3

100.0106.5109.5111.4

110.8110.4108.7

107.6108.2108.6109.7

. 110.6111.5111.0111.8111.9110.9

Transpequi]

Total

68.764.872.783.191.896.9

100.0105.0107.2105.5

109.2100.196.6

97.695.595.097.298.299.7

101.398.9

102.2102.5

Drtationment

Motorvehi-clesand

parts

64.458.874.590.699.098.5

100.0105.5104.996.8

103.885.878.5

83.079.479.886.289.892.596.791.699.4

100.5

Lum-ber andprod-ucts

74.767.379.986.088.095.1

100.0104.6103.0101.6

98.295.593.5

94.291.591.292.792.596.794.895.094.993.8

No

Ap-parelprod-ucts

91.090.193.895.792.696.3

100.0102.2104.398.8

97.295.594.9

92.993.192.593.295.296.297.898.798.598.9

ndurable

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

72.175.279.084.587.690.7

100.0103.6108.5111.9

112.9112.4112.8

112.1110.9110.4110.7110.6111.2111.9112.3112.5112.7

manufacti

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

89.281.887.591.491.494.6

100.0105.4108.5110.3

110.7110.0109.9

110.1109.1108.2109.0109.2109.6111.5112.1112.3113.0

res

Foods

86.587.790.192.194.997.4

100.0102.8105.5107.6

108.8109.6109.1

108.3107.6107.4107.6107.8108.6108.3

'108.7109.2109.4

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: SeptOctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJune ,July r.Aug r

Sept "

Total newconstructionexpenditures

272.0260.6294.9348.8377.4407.7419.3432.2443.7446.4

437.2434.6431.4421.3

406.5410.1401.9407.1399.0398.2400.6402.1406.5

Total

207.3197.5231.5278.6299.5323.1328.6337.4345.4337.8

330.3324,1317.2311.3

303.9300.5293.3299.0291.0290.9289.6293.2295.9

Resi

Total '

I

99.284.7

125.5153.8158.5187.1194.7198.1196.6182.9

175.4172.1168.0165.0

161.8155.6152.4151.8154.6158.3157.8162.9167.7

Private

iential

i\ew Housing

illions of dollars

69.457.094.6

113.8114.7133.2139.9138.9139.2128.0

Annual rates

121.6119.0115.1113.0

107.9103.5100.8100.6103.2106.7109.7114.6119.0

Commercialand

58.262.657.774.089.884.484.088.094.396.4

94.992.089.388.6

85.186.283.287.078.273.873.272.069.7

Other

49.850.248.250.851.351.650.051.454.658.5

60.059.959.957.7

57.058.757.660.258.358.858.658.358.5

Federal,State, and

local

64.763.163.570.277.884.690.694.898.3

108.7

106.8110.5114.2110.0

102.6109.6108.6108.0108.0107.3111.0108.9110.6

Oonstructio

Total valueindex

(1982 = 100)

100100124136150159165167173157

r!47154152136

133138

r!40152

r!46M37

146150143

n contracts 3

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

919690756955

1,0971,0161,019

973961747

Anniuil rales

693639660555

602658538624565438469514416

1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.2 Includes hotels and motels.3 F.W. Dodge series.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompan}', F.W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: SeptOctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMavJuneJulyAug 'Sept T

Oct"

Total

1,084.21,062.21,703.01,749.51,741.81,805.41,620.51,488.11,376.11,192.7

1,1061,0261,130

971847992907977983

1,0341,0491 ,0561,0211 ,096

Units started, b\

1 unit

705.4662.6

1,067.61 ,084,21,072.41,179.41,146.41,081.31,003.3

894.8

858839769751648788742801831869879883864898

New private

type of structure

2-4 units

91.180.0

113.5121.493.484.065.358.855.237.5

Seasonal

3522541729372832362446422948

housing units

5 or more units

287.7319.6522.0544.0576.1542.0408.7348.0317.8260.4

y adjusted annu

213165307203170167137144116141124131128150

Unitsauthorized

985.51,000.51,605.21,681.81,733.31,769.41,534.81,455.61,338.41,110.8

al rates

989925916854802876892913966999

1,005953982

1,035

Unitscompleted

1,265.71,005.51,390.31,652.21,703.31,756.41,668.81,529.81,422.81,308.0

1,3141,2751,2461,1551,1251,0961,190,089,070,105

' ,069,054

" ,144

New pri\

Homes sold

436412623639688750671676650534

504465480464414488495506507518503512446

ate homes

Homes forsale at end of

period 1

275253301353346357366368363318

338334327318315313308303299295296295295

Vacancv rate

housing units(percent) 2

5.05.35.75.96.57.37.7t . t7.47.2

7.2

7.2

7.5

7.3

7.6

NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for IfiTK-iSH tare for 16,000 places.

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Quarterly data enter

earlier data.i last month of quarter. Series beginning 1989 not coiimparahle with


19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn September, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.4 percent and inventories rose $5.0 billion. In October,according to advance data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent, following a rise of 0.6 percent in September.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE]

1,000'

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

MANUFACTURING ANDTRADE INVENTORIES

MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE SALES

1988

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1989 1990 1991

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)300

250

200

150

100

RETAIL INVENTORIES

RETAIL SALES

RATIO*

I./O

1 40

INVENTO

V—']l,lm

1987

?Y-SALES R

^-^*" 'V" Nxs.

|1988

ATIORETAIL

\^ f—\ ,./

1- \r— '

- XV<~~K^ , /MANUFACTURING

AND TRADE

Jnm1989 1990

A

\

Vi imlimi

1991


Period

198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: Sept/OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug r

Sept"Oct"

Manufacttrac

Sales 2

348,755370,441411,391423,806431,668459,088496,330525,839542,917

549,804r 554,938546,714534,361527,074527,915523,117530,872535,926536,977541,023539,578541,977

uring ande '

Inven-tories 3

574,518590,968650,789665,060664,031711,595767,700810,257826,941

825,964830,414832,464826,941831,445828,201819,615816,893811,713807,105806,802806,648811,665

Who

Sales 2

96,290100,324113,393114,626116,151124,254135,176144,005149,193

149,918151,001148,176148,036

144,723143,608142,935145,019144,927145,217147,635145,524146,647

esale

Inven-le

Millions

128,196130,906143,557148,484154,713165,271180,313188,273195,567

193,077194,053195,544195,567198,993198,563196,733195,052193,632192,039192,806192,503192,306

Total

of dollars,

89,11497,570

107,316114,642120,860128,509137,613145,146150,602

151,970r 151,984

152,711149,750147,803151,092151,467150,967152,710152,642153,195152,160

' 153,025152,888

Sales 2

Durablegoodsstores

seasonally

28,01332,63137,93841,56745,12148,05152,28154,34954,563

54,276r 54,29654,15252,40250,89753,23553,72553,49054,07454,21254,11753,390

r 54,52654,549

Re

Nondura-ble goods

stores

idjusted

61,10164,93969,37773,07575,73880,45785,33290,79796,039

97,694r 97,68898,55997,34896,90697,85797,74297,47798,63698,43099,07898,770

r 98,49998,339

tail

Total

134,493147,712167,748181,773186,587208,112219,791238,159242,563

241,895244,901244,550242,563244,071241,179236,900236,696236,204235,098235,994236,757240,335

Inventories 3

Durablegoodsstores

61,46969,02579,25088,46490,197

105,738112,254120,663120,629

122,303124,048122,947120,629121,217119,239116,041116,087115,490114,305114,754115,279117,515

Nondura-ble goods

stores

73,02478,68788,49893,30996,390

102,374107,537117,496121,934

119,592120,853121,603121,934122,854121,940120,859120,609120,714120,793121,240121,478122,820

Inventorv-.

Manufac-turing

1.671.551.531.551.551.501.491.511.51

1.501.501.521.551.581.571.571.541.511.501.491.491.50

ales ratio 4

Retail

1.491.441.491.521.561.551.551.601.59

1.591.611.601.621.651.601.561.571.551.541.541.561.57

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 End of period.

4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.


20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn September, manufacturers' shipments and inventories rose, while new and unfilled orders fell.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)/»u

240

200

80

BllilO

-SHIPMEN

u— —•— |

D

^•~" —

i m 1 1 1 m i

NS OF DOHA

TS ,.r-

JRABLEGOCtf

' ••— —

"

— NOND

1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 1 M

RS' (RATIO SC

i w~-v --S

\TOTAL

)DS

JRABLEGOC

mull mi

ALE)

^•— '"- X

.^^

DOS

1 1 1 1 \ I 1 1 1 M

r-^-—

1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

AW

240

200

160

80

—NEW OR— — """""l

DUR/

. •""• "*•*" *

nni lnin1987

DERS^y,

r" """\BLE GOOD

V.y--- '

NONI

iimlimi1988

r - - —

\TOTAL

5

x-v--'.''

\3URABLEGC

n mini n1989

v

-/••'•-^

KDDS

1||M|

1990

r-^-^

/>.l~^*"—

m|||1991

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

440

360

280

200

160

120

80

60

- INVENTORIES

M i n m i !

DURABLE GOODS

\NONDURABLE GOODS

mi ilimi

RATIO'

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1987

iiii1988 1989 1990 1991


Period

1982 ,19831984198519861987198819891990

1990: SeptOctNoyDee

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug 'Sepf

Manul

163,351172,547190,682194,538194,657206,326223,541236,689243,122

247,916251,953245,827236,575

234,548233,215228,715234,886238,289239,118240,193241,894242,305

acturers' shipn

Durablegoods

79,21285,48197,940

101,279103,238108,128117,993124,532125,388

125,783127,692122,693118,578

117,648117,432114,487119,721121,024122,240122,994124,459

r!25,113

ents 1

Nondurablegoods

84,13987,06692,74293,25991,41998,198

105,549112,156117,735

122,133124,261123,134117,997

116,900115,783114,228115,165117,265116,878117,199117,435117,192

Manuf

311,829312,350339,484334,803322,731338,212367,596383,825388,811

390,992391,460392,370388,811

388,381388,459385,982385,145381,877379,968378,002377,388379,024

icturers' inven

Durablegoods

tfiUions of d<

200,409199,814221,284218,182212,010220,790241,389253,261252,836

255,278255,113.256,387252,836

252,170252,256250,405249,546246,964245,642244,467243,616244,488

.ories 2

;

Nondurablegoods

)llars, season

111,420112,536118,200116,621110,721117,422126,207130,564135,975

135,714136,347135,983135,975

136,211136,203135,577135,599134,913134,326133,535133,772134,536

ally adjustet

162,140175,451192,879195,706195,204209,389227,025240,758243,643

248,987254,976239,237238,196

234,462233,132226,431231,229236,540233,725248,090243,160238,933

Manufacturers

Durabl

Total

78,06488,140

100,164102,356103,647110,809121,444128,651125,958

126,893130,875116,193120,221

117,789117,547112,116116,139118,434117,128130,827125,482

T 121,470

new orders 1

goods

Capitalgoods

industries,non-defense

19,21319,62423,66924,54523,98326,09630,72734,81634,032

34,41937,22330,88438,560

33,95733,75631,94028,74828,03829,28236,68930,993

r30,790

Nondurablegoods

84,07787,31192,71593,35191,55798,579

105,581112,107117,685

122,094124,101123,044117,975

116,673115,585114,315115,090118,106116,597117,263117,678117,463

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 2

311,893347,310373,607387,241393,629430,589472,223520,837527,195

529,141532,164525,574527,195

527,109527,026524,742521,085519,336513,943521,840523,106519,734

Manufac-turers'inven-tory—

shipmentsratio 3

1.951.781.731.731.681.591.581.611.60

1.581.551.601.64

1.661.671.691.641.601.591.571.561.56

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same B2 End of period.

3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.


21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn October, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.7 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose0.4 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.9 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.4percent.

INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

100 100

901983

90

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19811982198319841985198619871988198919901990: Oct

NovDec

1991: JanPebMarAprMayJune r

JulyAugSeptOct

Totalfinishedgoods

96.1100.0101.6103.7104.7103.2105.4108.0113.6119.2122.3122.8122.3122.4121.5121.2121.3121.9121.4121.1121.4121.5122.3

Con-sumerfoods

97.8100.0101.0105.4104.6107.3109.5112.6118.7124.4125.1125.2124.8124.6124.9125.1125.5125.5124.9124.0123.5122.9123.4

F

Total

95.6100.0101.8103.2104.6101.9104.0106.5111.8117.4121.4122.0121.4121.6120.4119.9120.0120.7120.2120.1120.7121.0121.9

Fin

nished go

Total

96.1100.0101.2102.2103.3

98.5100.7103.1108.9115.3120.6121.3120.2120.1118.4117.5117.7118.5117.7117.6118.4118.7119.8

shed goods

ids excluding

Consumer gc

Durable

96.4100.0102.8104.5106.5108.9111.5113.8117.6120.4121.2121.8122.3123.1123.5124.2123.9123.6123.2123.3123.7123.5124.5

consumer foo

ods

Nondurable

95.8100.0100.5101.1101.7

93.394.997.3

103.8111.5118.6119.3117.6117.2114.7113.4113.7114.9114.0113.7114.8115.2116.2

Js

Capitalequip-ment

94.6100.0102.8105.2107.5109.7111.7114.3118.8122.9124.1124.4124.8125.7125.9126.2126.1126.5126.7126.7126.8127.0127.5

Totalfinished

con-sumergoods

96.6100.0101.3103.3103.8101.4103.6106.2112.1118.2122.1122.6121.7121.6120.5119.9120.2120.7120.0119.6120.1120.1121.0

Intern

Total

98.6100.0100.6103.1102.799.1

101.5107.1112.0114.5117.9118.1117.2116.6115.7114.5114.0113.9114.0113.7114.1114.2114.1

lediate ma

Foodsand

feeds '

104.6100.0103.6105.7

97.396.299.2

109.5113.8113.3113.0111.7111.9110.4112.3113.2113.0110.1109.7108.6110.9110.5111.7

te rials

Other

98.2100.0100.5103.0103.0

99.3101.7106.9111.9114.5118.2118.5117.5116.9115.9114.5114.0114.1114.3113.9114.3114.4114.3

Cn

Total

103.0100.0101.3103.5

95.887.793.796.0

103.1108.9125.4117.6111.2113.2104.5101.0100.6100.7

99.299.299.298.3

100.1

iide mater

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

103.9100.0101.8104.7

94.893.296.2

106.1111.2113.1111.9110.8109.5108.3108.4109.5108.7105.1105.9104.1102.2103.7103.8

als

Other

101.8100.0100.7102.296.981.687.985.593.4

101.5127.9116.4107.2110.898.092.292.094.191.592.393.391.293.8

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. :e: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted and notseasonally adjusted. The index was 2.9 percent above its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE]150

140

130

120

110

100

90

NDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

150

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1983

^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11984

r-- '

1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I I

1985

SEAS

CONSUMER

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

1986

DNALLY ADJUSTED

PRICES— ALL IT

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1987

EMS

j^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1988

/ 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1989

^

1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 11990

r^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11991

140

130

120

110

100

90


[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Rel. imp.3....19811982198319841985198619871988198919901990:

OctNovDec

1991:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulvAugSeptOct

All it

Notseason-

ally

ed(NSA)

100.090.996.599.6

103.9107.6109.6113.6118.3124.0130.7

133.5133.8133.8

134.6134.8135.0135.2135.6136.0136.2136.6137.2137.4

ems l

Sea-son-ally '

adjust-ed

133.4133.8134.2

134.8135.1135.0135.3135.7136.0136.3136.6137.1137.2

Pood

16.293.697.499.4

103.2105.6109.0113.5118.2125.1132.4

134.1134.7134.9

135.7135.4135.7136.7136.7137.4136.6136.2136.3136.2

Total !

41.490.496.999.5

103.6107.7110.9114.2118.5123.0128.5

130.4130.6130.8

131.9132.5132.6132.8133.0133.1133.5133.5134.2134.6

Total

27.790.596.999.1

104.0109.8115.8121.3127.1132.8140.0

142.0142.3142.8

143.9144.6144.8145.2145.3145.8146.1146.2146.9147.3

Hoi

Shf

Rent-ers',

(Dec

100)

7.9

103.0108.6115.4121.9128.1133.6138.9146.7

148.8149.5150.5

153.0154.2154.2154.2154.1154.5155.0154.7155.4156.0

sing

Her

Home-own-ers'

costs(Dec.

1982 =100)

19.5

102.5107.3113.1119.4124.8131.1137.3144.6

146.8146.9147.3

147.9148.4148.7149.2149.4149.9150.2150.5151.3151.6

Mainte-nanceand

repairs(NSA)

0.290.796.499.9

103.7106.5107.9111.8114.7118.0122.2

123.4123.9123.8

124.1125.1124.2126.1126.9126.2126.9127.2126.8126.6

Fueland

otherutili-ties

7.386.494.9

100.2104.8106.5104.1103.0104.4107.8111.6

113.8114.2113.7

115.5115.1114.8114.2114.8114.0114.8114.7115.4116.1

Appar-el andupkeep

6.195.397.8

100.2102.1105.0105.9110.6115.4118.6124.1

125.1125.3125.7

126.9128.9127.4127.2127.8127.7128.9130.4129.9129.4

T

Total '

17.893.297.099.3

103.7106.4102.3105.4108.7114.1120.5

125.8126.5126.9

125.4124.0122.8122.4123.2123.5123.5124.0124.3124.0

ansportati

New

4.093.797.499.9

102.8106.1110.6114.6116.9119.2121.0

121.2121.5122.0

123.6124.2124.8125.2125.3125.6125.6125.8126.2125.8

on

Motor

4.1108.5102.899.497.998.777.180.280.988.5

101.2

118.0118.5117.7

110.0102.097.197.199.599.197.197.498.397.6

Medi-cal

care

6.482.992.5

100.6106.8113.5122.0130.1138.6149.3162.8

167.5168.7170.1

171.2172.4173.5174.4175.4176.5177.5178.9180.1181.1

Ener-gy 2

8.397.799.299.9

100.9101.688.288.689.394.3

102.1

110.9111.4110.9

108.2103.9101.2100.5101.9100.9100.5100.3101.3101.5

Allitemslessfood

energy

75.689.295.899.6

104.6109.1113.5118.2123.4129.0135.5

137.7138.1138.6

139.7140.7140.9141.2141.5142.0142.5143.0143.6143.8

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel

also included through 1982.3 Relative importance, December 1990.

etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for Iiomeownership c

and therefore are not strictly comparable, with figures for earlier periods.Data beginning 1987 and" 1988 calculated on a revised basis.



CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJune T

July 'AugSept r

Oct

Olit

Totalfinishedgoods

Cha

7.13.6

.61.71.8

-2.32.24.04.05.7

Ch

1.2.4

-.4

.1-.7-.2

.1

.5-.4

2.2.1.7

njrc from pr

Coiisum

Food;

ige, Dec.

1.52.02.33.5

.62.8

-.25.75.22.6

ange, mon

0.6.1

-.32.2_2

.30

— .5-.7-.4— .5

.4

eceding peri

?r goods

Exclud-ing foods

o Dec., N

8.64.2-.9

.82.1

-6.64.13.15.38.7

th to mont

2.1.6

-.91

-1.4-.8

.2

.7Y

-.1.7.3.9

d

Capitalequip-ment

3A

9.23.92 01.82.72.11.33.63.83.4

h

0.22

.3

.7

.2

.2— .1

.3

.20.1_ 2

.4

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

15.412.35.1

.3-4.2-3.5-3.5

1.3.7

— .7-1.6

.34.0

from 3 montl

Consum

Foods

2.6.6

1.3

-1.6-1.0

1.02.91.9

-.6-4.7-6.2-6.3-1.9

s earher, ann

r goods

Excludingfoods

30.223.87.3

-1.6-9.2— 8.7-7.8

.3

.7-.3-.33.47.7

jal rate

Capitalequipment

3.63.33.3

5.34.94.61.31.91.61.91.01.02.5

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

8.99.08.2

7.63.7

.7-1.6-1.5-1.5-2.1-.2

.51.7

from 6 montl

Consum

Foods

2.82.11.8

.52

1.1.6.5_ 2

-1.0-2.2-3.5-3.3

s earlier, ann

r goods,

Excludingfoods

15.515.614.0

13.26.0

-1.0-4.8-4.6-4.1-4.1

02.13.6

lal rate

Capita!equipment

3.33.63.5

4.44.13.93.23.43.11.61.41.32.2

Change

yearearlier.

tolalfinishedgoods

NSA

9.24.11.62.11.0

-1.42.12.55.24.H

6.47.0n. t

4.03.43.23.33.53.52.92.0

7

0


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

19811982198319841985 :..19861987198819891990

1990: OctNoyDec


Allitems '

8.93.84.83.93.81.14.44.44.66.1

0.6.3.3

.4

.2-.1

_ 2.3.2_ 2.2.4.1

Food

4.33.12.73.82.63.83.55.25.65.3

0.4.4.1

.6_ 2

.2

.70

.5-.6

0

.1-.1

Total '

10.23.63.54.34.31.73.74.03.94.5

0.3.2.2

.8

.5

.1

.2

.2

.1

.30.5.3

Total '

9.92.44.75.26.04.64.84.54.95.2

0.1.2.4

.8

.5

.1

.3

.1

.3

.2

.1

.5

.3

Housing

Shelter

Rent-

costs

c

5.15.96.35.03.93.94.56.7

0.4.5.7

1.7.8

00-.1

.3

.3-.2

.5

.4

Home-

costs

tiange, D

4.55.15.94.65.34.75.14.7

Chs

0.1.3

.4

.3

.2

.3

.1

.32

.2

.59

Fueland

otherutili-ties

ecember

14.49.71.84.21.8

-5.61.62.93.24.0

nge, mo

1.1.4

-.4

1.63

-.3— .5

.5— .7

.7-.1

.6

.6

Ap-parelandup-

to Dec

3.51.62.92.02.8

.94.84.71.05.1

nth to n

-0.3.2.3

1.01.6

-1.22

.5-.1

.91.2

-.4-.4

Tr

Total >

mber, IS

10.91.83.93.12.6

-5.96.13.04.0

10.4

onth

1.9.6.3

-1.2-1.1-1.0-.3

.7

.20

.4<j

_ _ 2

msportati

Newcars

SA

6.81.53.42.53.45.91.82.12.31.4

0.12

.4

1.3.5.5.3.19

02

.3-.3

on

Motorfuel

9.4-6.5-1.7-2.4

3.1-30.7

18.7-2.1

6.836.5

7.1.4

— .7

-6.5-7.3-4.8

02.5

-.4-2.0

.3

.9-.7

Medi-cal

care

12.511.06.46.16.87.75.86.98.59.6

0.8.7.8

.6

.7

.6

.5

.6

.6

.6

.8

.7

.6

Ener-gy2

11.91.3

-.5.2

1.8-19.7

8.2.5

5.118.1

4.2.5

-.4

-2.4-4.0-2.6

7

1.4-1.0-.4

o

1.0_2

lessfoodand

9.54.54.84.74.33.84.24.74.45.2

0.3.3.4

.8

.7

.129

.4

.4

.4

.4

.1

Adden

Fromprevi-

ous

t e r 3

6.9

3.6

2.1

3.0

dum: All ite(anilua

From3

monthsearlier

9.26.94.9

4.33.92.41.51.83.03.02.73.32.7

ns, percent1 rate)

From()

monthsearlier

6.97.26.6

6.75.43.72.92.9<j 7<> o

2.23.12.8

hangc

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

10.36.23.24.33.61.93.64.14.85.4

6.36.36.1

5.75.34.B4.95.04.74.43.83.42.9

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fu€'l oil, etc.

also included through 1982.-and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,

3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers in October fell 4.7 percent from their September level. Prices paid by farmers inOctober were unchanged from their July level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)

INDE

200

180

160

140

inn

80RATI140

80

X, 1977-100

S^

iiliililiii

QJ/

-_

—

"L ~~^1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1983

J RATIO OF INDEX O

.OURCE: DEPARTMEN

RATIO SCALE)

S ^\X.

iiliililiii

(^ — ^

1 1 f f 1 1 1 i i i 11984

PRICES RECEIVED TO

OF AGRICULTURE

"X^

lliilllllli

--1Illilllilil

1985

INDEX OF PRICES PAI

F

W^-v

iiliililiii

.

lllilllllll1986

3

\

RICES PAID

^\PRICES RECEJ

lllilllllll

Iiliililiii

1987

._,-''"'"

/~^

^

VED

Iiliililiii

RATI

Iiliililiii

1988

w\

0

~- — *•

i i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1

1989

INDEX, 1977=

r%x^x^-\

Iiliililiii

"• --v.

Ill i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1990

COUNCIL OF

= 100 (RATIOS

,s\.K A

iiiiiliniiR/

-

„

_

, ~Illilllilil

1991

ECONOMIC ADVISER

CALE)

180

160

140

120

100

80TIO-!/140

80

[1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec


Pri

All farmproducts

139133135142128123127138147150

146147143

145145149149152155150147148141

ces received by farm

Crops

134121128138120107106126134128

120124121

123122128131138146137135

r!38125

ers

Livestock andproducts

143145141146136138146150160170

170169164

166166169166165163162158

r!57157

F

All commodities,services,

interest, taxes,arid wage tates l

150159161164162159162170178184

187(3)(3)

188(3)(3)

190(3)(3)

189(3)(3)

189

rices paid by farme

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wageTales

151158159161156150152160167172

174(3)(3)

175(3)(3)

176(3)(3)

174(3)(3)

174

s

Productionitems

148153152155151144148157165171

174(3)(3)

173(3)(3)

175<3)(3)

173(3)(3)

173

Ratio2

92848487797778818382

787976

77777978808279787875

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,

and wage rates. See also footnote 3.3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and

for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.

NOTE.—-The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source; Department of Agriculture.

25Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESM2 and M3 rose slightly in October.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)4,8004,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

-v

I I I M I I I I I I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

i i i i I i i i i i

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

AVERAGES Of DAuy FIGURES; SEASONAUX ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD or GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec1989: Dec1990: Dec

1990: SeptOctNovDec

19.91: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOcf

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers' checks,

and othercheckable

deposits (OCDs)

436.4474.4521.2552.2619.9724.3749.7786.4793.6825.4

821.8821.2823.3825.4

826.7836.4843.0842.1851.6858.4859.6

'866.1'870.0879.4

M2

Ml plus overnightRPs and

Eurodollars,MMMF balances(general purpose

and broker/dealer),MMDAs, and

savings and smalltime deposits

1,793.31,952.92,186.32,374.72,569.72,811.62,910.13,069.93,223.1

'3,327.8

'3,321.6'3,324.5'3,323.7'3,327.8

'.3,331.3'3,354.6'3,375.3'3,383.6'3,396.4'3,401.2'3,390.5'3,390.6'3,390.33,398.8

M3

M2 plus largetime deposits,

term RPs, termEurodollars, andinstitution-only

MMMF balances

2,234.12,441.72,693.32,986.23,201.63,492.63,677.43,919.14,055.2

'4,111.2

'4,108.8'4,109.0'4,108.4'4,111.2

'4,124.0'4,159.7'4,168.1'4,170.3'4,172.8'4,165.6'4,148.5'4,146.5'4,139.94,146.4

L

M3 plusother liquid

assets

2,596.72,851.43,154.63,527.53,828.94,133.24,337.04,676.04,889.9

'4,966.6

'4,955.6'4,955.1'4,960.4'4,966.6

'4,983.1'5,010.0'5,010.2'4,977.3'4,956.2'4,980.1'4,984.8'4,978.3"4,970.1

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinancialsectors

(monthly-average) 1

4,292.14,685.95,212.65,961.96,773.57,636.28,345.19,107.69,790.4

10,434.0

10,306.410,344.810,396.610,434.0

10,462.810,513.710,546.810,559.710,603.110,648.6

'10,688.6'10,739.5"10,796.8

Perec

Ml

6.88.79.95.9

12.316.83.54.9

.94.0

4.33.33.93.4

3.94.95.25.16.98.08.07.1

'6.48.9

nt changemonths

M2

10.08.9

12.08.68.29.43.55.55.0

'3.2

3.22.72.52.3

2.22.7

'3.23.64.44.43.6

'2.1'.9

.9

from yearearlier 2

M3

12.49.3

10.310.97.29.15.36.63.51.4

1.61.31.3

'1.2

1.72.82.93.0

'3.1'2.6

1.2'-.6-1.4— 1.1

or 6

Debt

9.99.2

11.214.413.612.79.39.17.56.6

6.86.46.66.2

5.55.14.74.24.04.14.3

r4.34.7

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and loca! govern-lents, and private nonfinaiiciai sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from (i months earli-

er at a simple annual rate.

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Re;

26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1981: Dee1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec1989: Dec1990: Dec1990: Sept

OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct"

Cur-rency

122.6132.5146.2156.0167.8180.7196.9212.0222.2246.4241.5243.9245.0246.4251.6255.1256.7256.6256.8257.6258.9260.8262.4264.5

De-mand

de-posits

231.3234.0238.5243.9266.6301.9286.5286.3278.7276.9279.1277.1277.2276.9272.9276.1277.1275.8278.7281.0278.9

r279.8279.4282.6

Othercheck-

abledepos-

its(OCDs)

78.2103.5131.6147.1179.5235.3259.3280.7285.2293.8293.0291.8292.8293.8293.9296.9301.0301.9308.1311.9

'314.0r317.8' 320.5324.4

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs),

net,plus

over-nightEuro-dollars

NSA

36.639.955.660.673.582.383.283.477.4

r74.3r81.6r83.7'77.8r74.3'71.5'70.5r69.5r70.1'68.9r68.5r65.3r67.9r67.170.6

Money imutuabalanc

Gener-al

pur-poseand

broker/dealer

150.6185.2138.8167.9176.7208.3221.7241.1313.6345.4339.3341.6341.9345.4 '353.9358.2363.6364.2365.1364.3359.4352.8349.2348.0

narketfundes1

Insti-tutiononly

38.051.142.862.163.983.888.986.9

101.9125.7116.2119.6120.5125.7130.1139.3142.0145.6146.2143.3141.8144.8149.3155.4

Savingsdeposits,including

moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

3 343.9400.0684.7704.7814.9940.6936.9925.8890.2916.7919.6918.2917.8916.7917.1926.9939.7953.8969.2981.0990.0996.2

1,002.71,013.6

Smalldenom-ination

timedepos-i t s 2

823.2850.9784.1887.7883.4855.5917.7

1,031.81,145.91,164.21,160.11,161.41,161.81,164.21,163.91,162.71,158.31,150.21,140.51,129.11,118.61,110.3

r l , 102.01,088.8

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-i ts2

303.0327.3327.7417.7437.3439.9489.2542.3563.5507.1521.9515.1512.5507.1511.9516.0511.5507.3503.9

r498.7r491.2r 484.6r475.9466.4

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)

NSA

35.333.449.957.662.480.5

106.1121.898.8

'89.4'97.9r95.1r95.1'89.4'87.3'85.8r82.0r80.8r79.5r77.0r78.2r78.2r77.175.7

TermEuro-dollars

(net)

NSA

67.581.791.582.976.583.891.0

106.081.071.470.070.270.071.471.972.671.168.265.464.8

'65.8r67.3r66.064.8

Sav-ings

bonds

67.868.071.174.279.591.8

100.6109.3117.5126.0123.8124.5125.2126.0126.7127.8128.9130.1131.4132.5133.5134.4

"135.3

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

149.4183.6212.0260.8298.2280.2253.5270.6327.4335.4332.2330.3333.8335.4333.2331.4327.8307.6

' 299.5327.0

'337.7336.5

"332.8

Bankers'accept-ances

40.044.545.045.442.037.144.540.140.734.731.832.634.034.736.035.232.430.728.827.727.827.0

"25.0

Com-mercialpaper

105.3113.7133.2160.8207.6231.4261.0336.8349.2359.4359.0358.8359.0359.4363.2355.9

'353.0' 338.6'323.7'327.3'337.2'333.8"337.1

1 Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted.2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than

$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.3 Savings deposits only; MMDA data begin December 1982.

NOTE.—Travelers checks of noiibank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shownhere.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures *; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec1989: Dec1990: Dec1990: Oct

NovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct"

A

Re

Total

25,94426,49527,83529,90131,66237,06145,86345,81247,59647,72949,10447,94248,24549,10449,46649,61149,56649,39550,06850,42950,51051,00251,28151,968

djusted for ch

erves of depo

Nonbor-rowed

24,30425,85927,20129,12728,47635,47345,03745,03545,88047,46448,77847,53248,01448,77848,93249,35949,32549,16449,76550,08949,90450,23850,63551,708

anges in reser

sitory instituti

Nonbor-rowed plusextended

credit

24,30726,00827,38729,12931,08036,24245,34045,51847,12447,48348,80147,55048,03948,80148,95849,39349,37849,25049,85350,09749,94950,53850,93751,719

ve requiremen

ons

Required

25,48026,17627,33529,34030,80736,02444,49444,76646,54946,80747,44047,09647,29747,44047,29747,80348,38748,36449,03949,42149,60549,916

'50,35250,883

ts

Monetarybase

145,931153,001164,276179,921191,374208,619230,039246,281263,459274,168299,785295,941297,553299,785305,152309,438310,982310,605311,479312,469313,910

'316,313'318,020320,672

Borro\instituti

B

Total

1,690636634774

3,1861,318

827777

1,716265326410230326534252241231303340607764645261

yings of dep>ns from theeserve (NS./

Seasonal

116543396

113563893

1308476

3351627633375579

151222317331287211

)sitoryFederal)

Extendedcredit

3148186

22,604

499303483

1,24420231824232734538688

846

300302

12

1 Data arc prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27


BANK LOANS AND SECURITIESTotal commercial bank loans and leases fell 0.1 percent in September; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5percent.

BILLIOr-2,800

2,400

2,000

1,200

200

160

120

JS OF DOLLARS

ALL COMM

_^-^

—

X^"*.--**-""""""-

i ini i iMii1983

• SEASONALLY ADJUS

SOURCE: BOARD OF G

* (RATIO SCAt

ERCIAL BANKS

—~~ 1

----"""

Illllllllll1984

ED

OVERNORS OF THE FE

E)

— "fc^i

_ — —

U.S. GON

C

,'

Illllllllll1985

DERAL RESERVE SYSTE

= «=:

LOANS AND

/ERNMENT SEC

\ -1._- --" ]

>THER SECURIT

\

Illllllllll1986

M

— — ~* "" "" ~* ""

.EASEb

:URITIES

ES

Illllllllll1987

— 1

•" ~"

"

Illllllllll1988

Bl

. 1

----

Illllllllll1989

LIONS OF DOL_

Il l l l l l l l l l1990

COUNCIL OF

LARS* (RATIO_ —

—

_^.--

Il l l l l l l l l l1991

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SCALE)

2,800

2,400

2,000

1 600

1,200

800

400

200

160

120

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted l ]

Period

1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec1989: Dec1990: Dec

1990: SeptOctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJune ....JulyAug......Sept

1

Total

securi-ties2

1,307.21,400.51,552.11,722.21,909.62,093.52,238.92,421.72,589.02,723.6

2,708.02,713.62,716.62,723.6

2,721.22,735.12,751.02,751.82,750.52,763.22,763.32,761.62,768.9

U.S.Govern-

mentsecuri-

ties

179.3201.7259.2260.2270.9310.1335.9363.8399.3454.2

450.1453.1454.0454.2

454.1458.0471.4479.2485.1495.2505.3512.6522,1

Othersecuri-

ties

160.5164.8169.1140.9179.0193.9193.5192.1180.8175.6

178.8177.8175.9175.6

177.7177.6177.6175.7173.9173.1172.0169.9170.8

Total 2

967.51,034.01,123.81,321.11,459.81,589.51,709.51,865.82,008.92,093.8

2,079.02,082.72,086.72,093.8

2,089.42,099.52,102.02,096.92,091.52,094.82,086.02,079.12,076.0

Com-mercial

andindustri-

al

355.4392.5414.2473.2500.3537.2567.6606.6641.3648.1

644.7643.7646.5648.1

644.3643.9646.0640.0633.2630.4626.7620.5623.8

A

Realestate

284.1299.9331.0376.5426.0494.2587.2671.5760.6836.5

822.5827.7832.0836.5

837.3842.6846.3850.9855.1859.5857.0853.9853.4

11 comme

Indi-vidual

182.5188.2212.9253.8294.6315.2328.2354.7375.5378.9

378.6379.7378.7378.9

375.9377.7375.5374.1373.5372.0369.6368.9365.3

eial ban

Secu-rity

21.425.328.034.543.140.434.839.938.340.6

41.340.539.640.6

43.143.238.939.839.838.341.642.643.9

IS

Loans an

Non-bank

finan-cial

institu-tions

29.931.230.431.332.434.931.829.932.734.8

35.234.834.634.8

34.835.936.735.936.937.137.036.236.0

' leases

Agri-cultural

33.136.239.240.136.131.529.429.830.733.0

31.832.232.533.0

33.533.534.033.933.633.032.532.332.2

State

politi-cal

subdi-visions

0.0.0.0

46.156.858.552.645.540.034.3

35.235.134.834.3

33.333.232.832.231.831.130.630.129.5

For-eigi!

banks

18.114.613.411.69.9

10.37.97.98.67.2

8.19.08.17.2

6.06.17.26.86.46.06.26.26.5

For-eign

officialinstitu-

tions

7.25.99.48.46.36.35.85.13.73.2

3.33.23.23.2

3.03.13.23.03.03.03.13.13.2

Leasefinanc-

ingreceiv-ables

12.713.313.71 6.019,022.324.529.231.832.7

32.833.332.932.7

32.432.833.032.732.732.832.031.431.2

Other

23.126.93 ! .if29.935.338.639.845.745.844.6

45.543.643.744.6

45.847.548.547.645.651.749.753.951.0

1 DjitJi lire prorated averages uf Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averagesof month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictlycomparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligationsof Slates and poiitieal subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.

28

2 Excludes loans to commercial hanks in the- United States.



SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS


Period

198219831984198519861987198819891990

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: Iii" :....

Total

300.8416.9491.4455.7524.1493.7548.2512.7459.8

517.4601.2459.2473.0

490.7517.2484.4346.8

454.6431.2

Internal l

241.9285.2335.9351.8344.3372.4391.4380.0369.5

379.9379.7385.5374.9

370.6374.7366.4366.1

377.5375.7

Total

58.9131.7155.5103.9179.8121.3156.8132.790.3

137.5221.5

73.798.1

120.1142.5118.019.3

77.155.5

Sources

C

Total

48.576.591.949.8

124.748.255.135.416.4

18.0118.7

!•%3.8

42.253.310.8

-40.8

34.020.5

External

edit market fi

Securitiesand

mortgages

-6.241.0

-13.6-6.260.518.5

-15.4-45.0-13.4

-92.53.1

-85.2-5.6

-45.327.9

-37.61.0

65.3104.7

nds

Loans andshort-term

paper

54.735.5

105.556.064.229.770.580.429.8

110.5115.686.29.4

87.525.448.441.8

31.3-84.2

Other 2

10.455.263.754.155.173.1

101.697.374.0

119.5102.772.694.2

77.989.3

107.321.4

43.134.9

Total

303.1392.6474.9425.1481.2466.6494.6488.4452.8

484.2560.0444.4465.3

468.6498.8504.7338.8

451.3425.3

Uses

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

256.1270.5369.7341.2330.4354.1378.3382.2371.2

377.4388.3385.1378.2

362.7384.4391.1346.5

317.0333.0

Increase infinancialassets

47.0122.1105.283.9

150.8112.5116.3106.281.6

106.8171.759.387.1

105.9114.4113.6-7.7

134.392.3

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

-2.324.316.530.643.027.153.524.2

7.0

33.241.214.97.7

22.018.5

— 20.27.9

3.25.8

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capitalconsumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retainedabroad.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.Government.


CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Period

1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec1989: Dec2

1990: Dec

1990: SeptOctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug *Sept"

Ins

Total

311,259325,805368,966442,602518,252573,017610,468664,049718,863735,102

735,547735,433736,411735,102

732,962732,762732,442733,621732,289730,591729,962729,108727,563

tallment credit

Automobile

119,008125,945143,560173,564210,187247,428265,851284,214290,676284,585

285,627285,024284,412284,585

283,746282,626280,689279,746276,494274,496273,565271,906269,655

outstanding

Revolving

61,07066,45479,088

100,280121,816135,851153,078174,104199,082220,110

219,090220,031221,690220,110

219,588221,556224,817225,994227,301227,737228,199229,453231,860

(end of perio

Mobilehome

20,05822,06423,56225,86126,85027,09625,92025,34822,47120,919

21,07320,68020,49220,919

20,45920,20020,12320,09819,79619,90719,61519,49518,970

d)

Other

111,124110,802122,756142,897159,400162,642165,620180,383206,633209,487

209,758209.698209,817209,487

209,170208,379206,813207,782208,697208,451208,582208,253207,078

Net

Total

13,10514,54643,16173,63675,65054,76537,45153,581

( 3 )16,239

1,703— 114

979-1,310

-2,139-201-S201,179

-1,331-1,698

-629-854

-1,545

change in in

Automo-

7,0176,937

17,61530,00436,62337,24118,42318,363

( 3 )-6,091

-1,191-603-612

173

-8391,120

-1,937943

-3,252-1,998

931-1,659

2,251

stallment ere

Revolving

5,9595,384

12,63421,19221,53614,03517,22721,026

(3)21,028

2,066942

1,658-1,580

5221,9683,2611,1771,307

435462

1,2552,407

dit outstandir

Mobile

1,3222,546

9582,299

989246

-1,176-572

( 3 )-1,552

119-393-187

427

-461-258

78-24302111

-291-120-526

-g1

Other

-1,193322

11,95420,14116,5033,2422,978

14,763( 3 )

2,854

94760

119-330

-317791

-1,566969915246131329

-1,175

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from precedingmonth.

2 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988and subsequent months.

3 Because of breaks in series, net change not available.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates fell in the first 3 weeks of November. (Chart is plotted through October.)

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

1L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec


Week ended:1991: Nov 2

91623 "

U.S. T

3-month bills(new issues) '

14.02910.6868.639.587.485.985.826.698.127.51

7.197.076.81

6.305.955.915.675.515.605.585.395.255.03

4.994.744.644.58

reasury security

Constant n

3-year

14.4412.9210.4511.899.647.067.688.268.558.26

8.077.747.47

7.387.087.357.237.127.397.386.806.50

r6.23

6.125.995.955.84

yields

laturities 2

10-year

13.9113.0011.1012.4410.627.688.398.858.498.55

8.728.398.08

8.097.858.118.048.078.288.277.907.657.53

7.527.487.377.38

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) a

11.2311.57

9.4710.159.187.387.737.767.247.25

7.407.107.04

7.056.907.077.056.957.097.036.896.80

r6.59

6.616.616.606.66

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)

14.1713.7912.0412.7111.379.029.389.719.269.32

9.539.309.05

9.048.838.938.868.869.019.008.758.618.55

8.588.558.438.46

Primecommercial

paper,6 months '

14.7611.898.89

10.168.016.396.857.688.807.95

7.817.747.49

7.026.416.366.075.946.166.145.765.59

r5.33

5.214.984.944.91

Discount rate(N.Y. F.R.

Bank)4

13.4211.028.508.807.696.335.666.206.936.98

7.00-7.007.00-7.007.00-6.50

6.50-6.506.00-6.006.00-6.006.00-5.505.50-5.505.50-5.505.50-5.505.50-5.505.50-5.005.00-5.00

5.00-5.005.00-4.504.50-4.504.50 4.50

Prime ratecharged by

banks4

18.8714.8610.7912.049.938.338.219.32

10.8710.01

10.00-10.0010.00-10.0010.00-10.00

10.00-9.509.50-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.008.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.008.00-8.00

8.00-8.008.00-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.50

New-homemortgage

yields(FHFB) 5

14.7015.1412.5712.3811.5510.179.319.19

10.1310.05

9.989.909.76

9.659.579.439.609.529.469.439.489.309.04

1 Bank-discount basis.3 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury- De-

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges aswell as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feetal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

30


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in the first 2 weeks of November and fell in the third week. (Chart is plotted through October.]

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)

700isn160

140

1?0

inn

80

60

40

PER

s — 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i [ 1

1983

CENT

^W

1984

_

^s~~*y

,,,,,i1985

- - -4

J— coMPOsn

ii.iiliii.i1986

FE STOCK PRIC

(NYSE)

1987

x~^~ '"•'

: INDEX

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1988

-/ — ""1^_/

1989

NX— \\/

1990

^/

1991

PERC

220200180

160

140

170

100

80

60

40

ENT20

PER

in

5

0

CENT

—

1 1 1

1983

1 1 1

1984

EARNI

^ ^

1 1 1

1985

vIGS-PRICE RA1

r- . -_

1 1 1

1986

IO ON COMM(S&P)

r 11 1 11987

ON STOCKS

p——

1 1 1

1988

|

1 1 11989

1 — ~~* 1

1 1 11990

PERC

|

1 1 1

1991

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: OctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct '.

Week ended:1991: Nov 2

91623"

New Y

Composite

74.0268.9392.6392.46

108.09136.00161.70149.91180.02183.46

168.05172.21179.57

177.95197.75203.57207.71206.93207.32208.29213.33212.55213.10

215.81215.87217.32210.15

ork Stock Exc

Industrial

85.4478.18

107.45108.01123.79155.85195.31180.95216.23225.78

208.58212.81221.88

220.69246.74255.36260.15260.13261.16262.48268.22266.21265.68

268.79268.29269.82261.05

Con

lange indexes I

Transporta-tion

72.6160.4189.3685.63

104.11119.87140.39134.12175.28158.62

131.90132.96141.31

145.89166.06166.26166.90170.77177.05177.15178.52177.99187.31

193.11194.86194.06183.57

mon stock pric

Dec. 31, 1965

Utility

38.9139.7547.0046.4456.7571.3674.3071.7787.4390.60

87.2789.6991.56

88.5992.0892.2992.9290.7689.0190.0592.3893.7295.25

96.4897.2698.1195.74

es 1

= 50)2

Finance

73.5271.9995.3489.28

114.21147.20146.48127.26151.88133.26

108.01113.76122.18

121.39141.03145.42152.64151.32152.31151.60157.70157.69158.94

161.48162.02163.95157.02

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3

932.92884.36

1,190.341,178.481,328.231,792.762,275.992,060.822,508.912,678.94

2,460.542,518.562,610.92

2,587.602,863.042,920.112,925.542,928.422,968.142,978.193,006.093,010.353,019.74

3,060.963,043.023,033.682,933.94

Standard &Poor's

index(1941-

43 = 10)"

128.05119.71160.41160.46186.84236.34286.83265.79322.84334.59

307.12315.29328.75

325.49362.26372.28379.68377.99378.29380.23389.40387.20386.88

391.55391.11393.41379.88

Common st(perce

Dividend-price ratio

5.205.814.404.644.253.493.083.643.453.61

4.013.913.74

3.823.353.263.193.233.233.203.10

'3.153.14

3.093.113.053.20

ock yieldsnt) 5

Earnings-price ratio

11.9611.608.03

10.028.126.095.488.017.416.47

6.46

5.59

5.24

1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks.4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-

poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first month of fiscal 1992, there was a deficit of $36.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $31.3 billion ayear earlier.

BILLIO

1,200

900

800

700

600

0

-200

MS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF D

- RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ f „x

X

OUTLAYSI/ -"'

\ --"'

-"""'" ^— — "

^'f' ^"-^""^^ RECEIPTS.!/

---•"" , — "

^~—~~^^

7| ^^**^ i i i i i i i i N

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT HI/ —

., ===__^=±^ ^~~~- ^__^^

~~" — ~^

A \ \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 f •— |\

1/1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992^

FISCAL YEARS

OLLARS1,500

1 400

1 300

1,200

i i no

1 000

900

800

7 fin

600

0

inn

-200

300

V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS,

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

1976Transition quarter19771978197919801981198219831984

1985198619871988198919901991 l

1992 (estimates) 2

First month: 'Fiscal year 1991Fiscal year 1992

Receipts

298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,145.5

77.078.1

Total

Outlays

371.896.0

409.2458.7503.5590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3990.3

1,003.81,064.11,144.11,251.71,323.01,493.8

108.3114.0

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-73.7-14.7-53.6-59.2-40.2-73.8-78.9

-127.9-207.8-185.3

-212.3-221.2-149.7-155.1-153.4-220.4-268.7-348.3

-31.3-36.0

Receipts

231.763.2

278.7314.2365.3403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

547.9568.9640.7667.5727.0749.7760.4832.0

57.057.2

On-budget

Outlays

302.276.6

328.5369.1403.5476.6543.0594.3661.2686.0

769.5806.8810.0861.4933.2

1,026.61,081.31,244.1

89.494.1

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-70.5-13.3-49.7-54.9-38.2-72.7-73.9

-120.0-208.0-185.6

-221.6-237.9-169.3-193.9-206.1-277.0-320.9-412.1

-32.3-36.8

Receipts

66.418.076.885.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1

186.2200.2213.4241.5263.7281.7293.9313.5

20.020.9

Off-budget

Outlays

69.619.480.789.7

100.0114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8

176.8183.5193.8202.7210.9225.1241.7249.7

18.920.0

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-3.2— 1.4-3.9-4.3-2.0— 1.1-5.0-7.9

.2

.3

9.416.719.638.852.856.652.263.8

1.0.9

Gross Fe(end of

Total

629.0643.6706.4776.6828.9908.5994.3

1,136.81,371.21,564.1

1,817.02,120.12,345.62,600.82,867.53,206.33,598.94,047.9

3,243.73,651.1

ieral debtperiod)

Held bythe public

477.4495.5549.1607.1639.8709.3784.8919.2

1,131.01,300.0

1,499.41,736.21,888.12,050.32,190.32,410.42,687.23,026.9

2,438.32,727.8

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.2 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 15,

1991.

NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1992, February1991, except as noted.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first month of fiscal 1992, receipts were $1.1 billion higher than a year earlier, and outlays were $5.7billion higher.

BILLIO600

300

200

TOO

o

1,200

1 000

600

500

400

300

200

MS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DO

RECEIPTS!/_^mmf

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES "

" SOCIAL INSURANCECORPORATION TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

OTHER RECEIPTS " INCOME TAXES ~ '\ \

i i i i i i i i i

OUTLAYS V **'

•"*"

NONDEFENSE ,_''"'V --\ ,-"""

__.*-'"''

NATIONAL DEFENSE\ _

/I \ 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 _JSV 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ^

FISCAL YEARS

J INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS, . ^OIINril OF FCONOMIC ADVISERSSOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LLARS

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1,200

1 000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year

19761977

1978

1979

19801981198219881984

1985

19861987

1988

19891990

1991 '

1992 (estimates) 2

First month: l

Fiscal vear 1991Fiscal vear 1992

Or

Total

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,145.5

77.078.1

-budget a

Indi-vidual

131.6

157.6181.0217.8244.1

285.9

297.7288.9298.4

334.5349.0392.6401.2445.7466.9467.8518.2

40.7

39.3

id off-bud

Corpo-ration

41.4

54.9

60.0

65.764.C61.149.237.056.9

61.363.183.994.5

103.393.598.198.7

1.61.2

ret receipt

Socialinsur-ance

andcontri-butions

90.8106.5121.0138.9157.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2283.9303.3334.3359.4380.0396.0427.2

26.628.4

Other

34.336.637.740.850.669.569.365.671.8

73.073.174.378.982.390.992.3

101.4

8.1

9.1

Total

371.8

409.2458.7503.5590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3990.3

1,003.81,064.11,144.11,251.71,323.01,493.8

108.3114.0

Nationa

89.6

97.2

104.5116.3134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7273.4

282.0290.4303.6299.3272.5311.5

23.423.8

defense

Depart-

Defense,military

87.995.1

102.3113.6130.9153.9180.7204.4220.9

245.2265.5274.0281.9294.9

289.8261.9

299.3

22.5

22.8

On-budfe

Inter-

6.4

6.4

7.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.214.211.610.59.6

13.816.217.9

.8

1.8

et and of!

rHealth

15.7

17.3

18.520.523.2

26.9

27.4

28.6

30.4

33.5

35.9

40.0

44.5

48.4

57.7

71.286.9

5.57.2

budget ou

Medi-

15.8

19.322.8

26.532.1

39.1

46.6

52.657.5

65.870.275.178.985.098.1

104.51 14.3

7.4

10.0

tlays

Incomesecuri-

ty

60.861.061.566.486.599.7

107.7

122.6

112.7

128.2

119.8

123.3

129.3

136.0

147.3

171.6

186.3

12.813.7

Socialsecuri-

73.985.193.9

104.1118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6198.8207.4219.3

232.5248.6269.0286.6

21.022 7

Netinter-

est

26.7

29.9

35.442.652.568.785.089.8

111.1

129.4

136.0138.6151.7169.2184.2195.0205.6

15.116.8

Other

82.893.0

114.7119.6131.4133.5125.4122.3118.6

131.8142.1125.9

139.4159.8202.7223.0284,7

22.4

18.0

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data are from Budget oj the United Hla/e,i Government, Fiscal Year JSSS, February2 Estimates from Mid-Session Hevieu- of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, .Inly 15, 1991, except as noted.

1!li)1- Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the second quarter of 1991, Federal receipts rose $4.0 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $61.7billion. In the third quarter, according to advance data, Federal expenditures rose $14.0 billion; receipts data areincomplete.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

EXPENDITURES

\ ------T""

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200

1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986 1987CALENDAR YEARS

1991

COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

Fiscal year:19861987198819891990

Calendar year:1986...'1987198819891990


IIinIV

1991: I[IHI".

Sourer: Drpur t inr i l t

34

Total

815.2899.4957.6

1,041.91,094.9

827.9913.8972.4

1,052.91,109.7

633.1675.5742.7805.3853.8940.0997.5

1,055.71,080.61,105.81,125.91,126.51,134.51,138.5

f ( 'onmu'rcc, 1

Federal (

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

357.0400.8411.3457.6483.0

361.4405.8415.1464.0492.8303.0291.9326.0355.3376.2419.2424.8469.6473.6492.1500.0505.5501.3499.5497.1

ureau of Econ

jovermnenl

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

81.199.1

108.1113.8113.6

83.8103.2110.5110.4108.546.470.269.778.888.9

107.4115.4101.3106.5109.2114.2104.195.097.6

am: Analysis

receipts

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

50.953.555.657.858.8

50.554.057.058.461.747.653.656.253.550,855.157.858.760.660.561.064.672.771.972.8

Contribu-tions for

socialinsurance

326.1345.9382.6412.6439.6

332.1350.8389.8420.1446.7236.1259.8290.7317.7337.9358.4399.6426.1439.9444.0450.6452.3465.5469.5475.0

Total

1,028.01,060.01,101.81,172.21,252.7

1,034.81,071.91,114.21,187.21,275.7

835.7844.7930.2

1.017.51,042.81,101.71,153.81,205.81,248.81,271.71,271.61,310.81.261.41,323.11,337.1

Pur-chases

of goodsand

368.6375.4377.8399.0416.1

366.5381.3380.3400.0424.0293.2276.1326.0376.6368.8388.2401.1399.9410.6421.9425.8437.6443.8449.7436.8

Federal 1

Trans-fer

pay-ments

394.6411.1433.2462.0504.7

399.9414.0438.9471.9511.4347.4352.5362.1385.8405.8421.4447.2487.9503.4510.4513.2518.5462.2509.4543.3

lOvernment

Gnmts-in-aid to

Stateandlocal

menu

107.4103.1108.31 15.8128.3

106.810S.fi111.1118.2131.484.586.096.3

103.5103.0102.7112.2121.5128.5131.5129.8135.8143.7151.0152.0

expenditu

Netinter-

estpaid

134.6139.3148.8167.7182.1

135.6142.3151.3172.0186.3

87.2101.0125.3132.71 36.0147.6157.9175.2178.1184.3189.8193.0194.3197.6199.8

res

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-

ment

prises

22.831.133.627.721.5

26.031.832.725.022.723.429.121.019.029.241.535.321.328.323.813.125.917.415.05.2

i-———— — — I Surplus

or deficitLess: (-),Wage national

accruals incomeless and

disburse- i productments accounts

0.0 -212.8.1 —160.7

— .1 -144.1.0 - 130.3.0 i —157.7

i.0 - 206.9.0 —158.2.0 i —141.7.0 -134.3.0 - 166.0.0 —202.6.0 —169.2.6 - 187.5.0 —212.2.0 -189.0

— .2 -161.7.0 i -156.3.0 —150.1.0 -168.3.0 -166.0.0 -145.7.0 —184.3.0 —126.9

-.4 -184.6.0


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

1982198319841985198B19871988198!)1990"

1990: AugSeptOctNovDee

1991: JanFebMarAprMavJuneJulyAugSeptOf.

States

81.984.992.894.495.3

100.0105.4108.1109.2

110.5110.6109.9108.3107.2

106.6105.7105.0105.5106.4107.3

' 108.1108.0

' 108.2108.2

Industrial

Canada

76.581.591.496.595.4

100.0105.5105.3100.8

101.299.599.497.496.4

96.495.394.996.5

r96.8r97.3'97.5

97.3

roduction

Japan

82.985.593.496.896.6

100.0109.3115.7121.3

123.7122.4125.3124.6123.7

125.4125.1123.0123.3126.0122.8126.6

r!22.8123.4

(1387 = 1

France

97.396.597.197.298.0

100.0104.7108.9110.2

111.6109.8110.1108.0106.0

110.1109.1106.0110.1109.6109.8110.7110.7

JO: seasonal

Germany

90.390.993.597.799.6

100.0103.9108.7114.6

116.5117.3117.0116.6116.2

119.1118.3

r 118.3117.8116.9121.6119.5

' 117.3116.3

v adjusted

Italy

91.888.891.892.996.2

100.0105.9109.2109.2

109.7110.8107.5106.8109.6

108.6108.4108.2103.3104.6110.5106.3104.5

Kingdom

86.389.589.694.596.8

100.0103.6104.0103.3

r!02.5rl()2.3r!02.3r 100.8r 100.2

99.6101.2

r!01.3r98.7r98.3

T 101.5T 101.5'99.7100.6

States '

96.599.6

103.9107.6109.6113.6118.3124.0130.7

131.6132.7133.5133.8133.8

134.6134.8135.0135.2135.6136.0136.2136.6137.2137.4

Con

Canada

94.9100.4104.8108.9113.4118.4123.2129.3135.5

135.8136.3137.4138.2138.1

141.7141.7142.3142.3143.0143.7143.8143.9143.7143.4

sumer pri

Japan

98.099.9

102.1104.2104.9105.0105.7108.1111.4

111.4112.4113.9113.5113.2

114.1113.8114.3114.8115.4114.9114.8115.0115.3

cs (1982-

France

91.7100.3108.0114.3117.2121.1124.4128.9133.2

133.7134.4135.2135.0134.9

135.5135.7135.8136.3136.6136.9137.4137.7138.0

84 = 100: N

Germany

97.0100.3102.7104.9104.7104.9106.3109.2112.1

112.2112.6113.4113.2113.3

114.0114.3114.2114.7115.2115.8116.8116.8117.0

$A|

Italy

87.7100.8111.5121.1128.5134.4141.1150.4159.6

160.3161.2162.6163.6164.2

165.4167.0167.4168.2168.8169.7169.9170.4171.1172.6

UnitedKingdom

95.499.8

104.8111.1114.9119.7125.6135.4148.2

150.5151.9153.1152.7152.6

153.0153.8154.4156.4156.9157.6157.2157.6158.1158.7

' Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported bv Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysisand International Trade Administration, Trade Information and Analysis).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

198219831984198519861987198819891990

1990: SeptOctNovDec

1991: JanFebMarAprMavJuneJulyAug '.Sept

1 Includes Department of D2 Includes undocumented ex3 Total arrivals of imported4 Total includes revisions no

Total z

216.4

205.6224.0

5 218.85 227.2

254.1322.4363.8393.6

32.234.633.633.6

34.133.634.035.635.335.035.234.435.4

fense MilitaTOrts to Cargoods other

reflected i

Her

Foods,feeds,and

31.330.931.524.022.324.332.337.235.1

2.72.62.92.6

2.73.13.02.93.02.93.12.93.0

rv Assistada throithan intri detail.

chandise e

Principal

Indus-trialsup-plies

materials

61.756.761.758.557.366.785.199.3

104.4

8.89.99.59.2

9.59.78.99.29.48.79.19.18.6

ince Progigh 1988.nsit shiprr

xports (f.

end-use c

Cap-

goodsexceptauto-

motive

72.767.272.073.975.886.2

109.2138.8152.7

12.613.112.413.2

13.012.413.514.413.714.413.713.414.4

am grant

cuts.

i.s. value

ommoditj

Auto-motive

cles,parts,anden-

gines

15.716.820.622.921.724.629.334.837.4

2.93.43.22.8

3.12.62.93.43.53.53.63.23.6

aid shiprr

i

category

Con-sumergoods(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

14.313.413.312.614.217.723.136.443.3

3.53.93.73.8

3.93.93.83.83.83.73.73.73.8

ents.

Other 2

20.720.524.027.335.934.643.417.220.7

1.71.81.91.9

1.91.91.91.92.01.92.12.02.0

C

Total

244.0258.0

4 330.74 336.5

365.4406.2441.0473.2495.3

41.344.543.139.9

41.539.138.140.140.138.841.240.942.2

5 Tomonth

NOT

Sour

eneral m

Foodsfeeds,and

17.118.221.021.924.424.824.825.126.6

2.22.22.12.2

2.22.12.12.42.32.32.32.12.2

al exporasis.

:. — Data

e: Depar

erchandise

Principal

Indus-trialsup-plies

materi

112.0107.0123.7113.9101.3111.0118.3132.3143.2

12.413.513.411.6

12.210.810.111.011.310.510.810.911.1

s are on

shown inc

tment of C

imports

nd-use c

Cap-

goodsexceptauto-

motive

35.440.959.865.171.884.5

101.4113.3116.4

9.410.310.09.8

9.99.99.9

10.410.19.8

10.49.9

10.3

» revised

ude trade

ommerce

customs

mmoditv

Auto-motive

cles,parts,anden-

gines

33.340.853.566.878.285.287.786.187.3

7.27.77.16.6

7.36.76.66.76.56.67.28.07.7

statistica

of the U

Bureau

value) 3

category

Con-sumer

(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

39.744.960.068.379.488.795.9

102.9105.7

8.69.49.08.3

8.68.58.08.58.48.19.38.79.6

month !

S. Virgin

if the Gen

Other

6.56.37.89.4

10.412.112.813.616.1

1.61.41.51.3

1.31.21.31.31.51.41.31.31.3

asis; em

Islands.

sus.

Generalmer-

chandise

(e.i.f.value)

254.9269.9346.4352.5382.3424.4459.5493.2517.0

43.146.445.041.6

43.440.939.842.041.840.443.042.744.1

-use eatego

Trade b

Exports(f.a.s) less

imports(customs

-27.5-52.4- 106.7-117.7-138.3-152.1-118.5-109.4-101.7

-9.1-9.9-9.5-6.3

-7.4-5.5-4.1-4.5-4.8-3.8-5.9-6.5-6.8

ies are on a

alance

Exports(f.a.s)less

imports(c.i.f.)

-38.4-64.2

-122.4-133.6-155.1-170.3-137.1-129.4-123.4

-10.8-11.7-11.4-8.0

— 9.2-7.3-5.8-6.4-6.6-5.5-7.8-8.3-8.6

statistical

35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSThe current account balance was a surplus of $3.0 billion in the second quarter of 1991, compared with a surplusof $10.5 billion in the first quarter. The balance continued to reflect the impact of cash contributions from coalitionpartners in Operation Desert Storm.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

15

10

5

0

-10

-15

-20

-25

-35

-40

-45

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

15

BALANCE ON"CURRENT ACCOUNT"

1982

\\

1983 1984

. BALANCE ON GOODS,SERVICES, AND INCOME

1985 1986 1987 1988

MERCHANDISE TRADEBALANCE

1989 1990 1991

« SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE; DEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (-J-), debits ( —)]

Period

19811982198319841985198619871988198919901988: I

IIIllIV

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: IIIIllIV

1991: III"

Exports

237,085211,198201,820219,900215,935223,367250,266320,337361,451389,55076,49779,39280,51183,93787,20791,60990,14292,49395,24497,08896,638

100,580100,900104,108

Merchandise l

Imports

-265,063-247,642-268,900-332,422-338,083-368,425-409,766-447,323-477,368-497,665— 109,988-110,494— 111,290-115,551-116,625-120,309-119,330-121,104-122,781-121,178-125,398-128,308-119,294-119,732

2

Net balance

-27,978-36,444

67,080-112,522-122,148- 145,058

159,500- 126,986-115,917-108,115-33,491-31,102-30,779-31,614-29,418-28,700-29,188-28,611-27,537-24,090-28,760-27,728-18,394-15,624

Netmilitarytransac-tions 3 4

-844112

-163-2,147-4,096-4,907-3,662-5,743-6,204-7,220-1,135-1,192-1,203-2,212-1,715-1,634-1,161-1,693-1,737-1,558-1,683-2,243-2,329-1,675

Services

transpor-

receipts

144-992

-4,227-9,153

-10,788-8,939-8,006-3,844

2,6214,140

-1,726-984-587-548

261443652

1,265941834479

1,8852,0561,951

Otherservices,

12,55212,98113,85914,04214,00818,55118,01219,92525,99829,4564,6184,8265,0235,4595,9406,3746,7726,9116,6957,3227,6077,8327,3457,690

Inv

Receiptson U.S.assetsabroad

84,97585,34681,97292,93582,28280,98290,536

110,669128,651130,09127,01627,00128,16828,48630,97432,30032,21733,15931,95931,31432,01234,80532,72928,599

astment incom

Paymentson foreignassets inU.S.3

-53,626-57,097

54,549-69,542

66,115-70,013

82,908-105,317-125,963-118,146-23,976-25,718-27,261-28,362-30,074-33,484-31,718-30,687-28,957-31,307-29,210-28,672-27,846-26,135

5

Net

31,34928,25027,42323,39416,16610,9697,6295,3532,688

11,9453,0401,283

907124900

-1,184499

2,4723,002

72,8026,1334,8832,464

Balance ongoods,

and income

15,2233,907

-30,188-86,385- 106,859-129,384-145,527— 111,294-90,814-69,794-28,694-27,169-26,639-28,791-24,032-24,701-22,426-19,656-18,635-17,485-19,555— 14,122-6,438-5,195

Unilateraltransfers,

net4

-8,331-9,775-9,956

-12,621-15,473- 16,009— 14,674-14,943-15,491-22,329-3,456-3,032-3,483-4,972-3,547-3,107-3,794-5,044-4,032-4,693-4,326-9,28016,9398,160

Balanceon current

account

6,892-5,868

-40,143— 99,006

-122,332- 145,393-160,201-126,236- 106,305-92,123-32,150-30,201-30,122-33,763-27,579-27,808-26,220-24,700-22,667-22,178-23,881-23,402

10,5012,965

1 Excludes military.* hxcluaes military.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.4 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grantit programs.

5 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in theUnited States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.

See p. 37 for continuation of table.

36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $11.2 billion in the second quarterof 1991, in contrast to a decrease of $20.6 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported byU.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $26.7 billion in the second quarter, compared to a decreaseof $18.8 billion in the first quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

-40

-60

20

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETS ,'IN THE U.S., NET •*

CHANGE INU.S. ASSETS

ABROAD, NET

-20

-40

-601991

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990

-1988: IIIIllIV

1989: IIIIllIV

1990: 1IIIllIV

1991: III"....

[

Total

-110,951-124,490-56,100— 31,070-27,721— 92,030-62,937-86,057

-128,610-57,706

4,900-20,571-42,825-27,565

-37,576-4,270

-45,743-41,021

37,147-33,462-26,689-34,703

-923-26,671

U.S. assetsincrease/capit

U.S.officialreserve

assets 3 6

-5,175— 4,965-1,196-3,131-3,858

3129,149

-3,912-25,293-2,158

1,50239

— 7,3801,925

-4,000-12,095-5,996-3,202

-3,177371

1,739-1,091

-3531,014

abroad, netal outflow ( — )

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

-5,097-6,131-5,006-5,489-2,821-2,022

1,0062,9661,3202,976

-1,597-8511,9573,457

928292564119

-669-800-3144,759

1,422-560

]

U.S.privateassets

-100,679— 113,394-49,898-22,451-21,043— 90,321-73,091-85,111

-104,637-58,524

4,995-19,759-37,402-32,947

-34,5048,117

-40,311-37,938

40,993-33,033-28,114-38,370

-1,992-27,125

Foreign[increas

Total

83,03293,74684,869

102,621130,012221,599229,828221,534216,54986,303

24,99666,09152,52977,917

69,5572,498

74,25570,238

-33,08231,25749,09639,033

-7292,156

assets in the3 /capital inflo\

Foreignofficialassets

4,9603,5935,8453,140

-1,08335,58845,34339,6578,624

32,425

24,8745,961

-1,98510,806

7,766-5,03813,053

-7,158

-7,0225,805

13,34120,301

6,631-3,650

J.S., netv ( + )]3

Otherforeignassets

78,07290,15479,02399,481

131,096186,011184,485181,877207,925

53,879

12260,13054,51467,111

61,7917,536

61,20277,396

-26,05925,45235,75418,732

-7,3615,806

Allocations

drawingrights

(SDKs)

1,093

Statistical (

Total (sumof the items

with signreversed)

19,93436,61211,37427,45620,04115,824

-6,690-9,24018,36663,526

2,254-15,319

20,418-16,589

-4,40229,580

-2,292— 4,517

18,60124,383

1,47519,072

-8,84921,550

iscrepancy

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

2,799-2,473-4,906

4,584

4,066-7806,3793,096

4,367105

-6,4732,007

3,995193

reserveassets, net 6(unadjusted,

end ofperiod)

30,07433,95833,74734,93443,18648,51145,79847,80274,60983,316

43,18641,02847,78847,802

49,85460,50268,41874,609

78,30377,29880,02483,316

78,00274,940

6 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies and the U S reserve posi-imi in the IMF.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTrcasurv.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures ; 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Loans and Securities 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Installment Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. Internationa! Transactions 36

General NotesDetail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

p Preliminary.r Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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