economic indicators: september 1948 - st. louis fed · 2018. 11. 7. · september 1948 prepared for...

80th Congress, 2d Session Joint Committee Print

Economic IndicatorsSEPTEMBER 1948

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

by the Council of Economic Advisers

and printed for the use of

the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 194880772

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JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman

JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman

JOSEPH H. BALL, MinnesotaRALPH E. FLANDERS, VermontARTHUR V. WATKINS, UtahJOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, WyomingFRANCIS J. MYERS, PennsylvaniaJOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

GEORGE H. BENDER, OhioCHRISTIAN A. HERTER, MassachusettsROBERT F. RICH, PennsylvaniaEDWARD J. HART, New JerseyWRIGHT PATMAN, TexasWALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

CHARLES O. HARDYJ Staff Director

FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director

JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the EconomicReport was established, its members realized that one ofits basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture ofcurrent economic trends and developments.

Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that EconomicIndicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiledmonthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirablyfills this need. While this material was prepared pri-marily for the use of the President, the Council and otherofficials in the executive offices, the Council has made itavailable to the Joint Committee.

Other Members of Congress have also expressed aninterest in being able to obtain a quick picture of currenteconomic facts without having to go through vo-luminous and specialized documents. In addition,businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and repre-sentatives of the press and radio have indicated theirdesire for this information. Since nothing contained

in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature theyhave urged that the material be made available to thegeneral public.

Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the pastseveral months provided the Congress and the publicwith a limited number of copies of Economic IndicatorThe response to these issues has indicated such wide-spread interest that the Committee has arranged torelease Economic Indicators each month as a committeeprint until action can be taken on authorizing the pul>lication on a more permanent basis.

Comments or suggestions with respect to possiblimprovements in this presentation will always Iwelcome.

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

11Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Letter of Transmitted

Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,Joint Committee on the Economic Report,

United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the

Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators

available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.

In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has

found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts

showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better

position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the

improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.

We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to

the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.

Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly

by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with

whom we regularly consult.

We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide

circulation to this material.?Sincerely yours,

Chairman.

Vice Chairman.

/Qp

inDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ContentsTHE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page

The Nation's Economic Budget 1

PRICESConsumers' Prices 2Wholesale Prices 3Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. . . . 4Stock Prices 5

EMPLOYMENTLabor Force 6Nonagricultural Employment 7Average Weekly Hours : 8Work Stoppages 9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 10Production of Selected Durable Manufactures 11Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures 12New Construction 13New Housing Starts 14Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 15New Corporate Security Issues 16Inventories and Sales 17Exports and Imports 18

PURCHASING POWERNational Income 19Corporate Profits 20Personal Income 21Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving 22Per Capita Income 23Average Hourly Earnings 24Average Weekly Earnings 25Farm Income 26Personal Consumption Expenditures 27Consumer Credit 28

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCEBank Loans and Investments 29Money Supply 30Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 31

IVDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGETConsumer saving and the Government surplus increased between1947 and first half of 1948, also ; the excess of business andforeign investment increased.

1948, FIRST HALF (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) *

CONSUMERS

EXCESS OFEXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+)

- ' 0 +

INCOME'///f/s

EXPENDITURES

185.5

173.5

BUSINESS21.5

37.8

INTERNATIONAL

iGOVERNMENT

64.0

1947, CALENDAR YEAR* (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

CONSUMERS

INCOME//////,

EXPENDITURES

173.6

164.8

BUSINESS

19.4

30.0

INTERNATIONAL

8.91GOVERNMENT

59.9

53.2

CONSUMERSAVING

EXCESS OFINVESTMENT

EXCESS OFINVESTMENT

CASHSURPLUS

CONSUMERSAVING

EXCESS OFINVESTMENT

EXCESS OFINVESTMENT

CASHSURPLUS

* A NNUA L PA TES, SEA SON A LLY ADJUSTED.NOTE: THE COMPONENTS DO NOT ADD TO THE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS.SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A\

SOURCE: SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.


PRICES

CONSUMERS' PRICESFood prices advanced further in July, thus pushing consumers' prices to new highs. Other retailprices showed little change.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE225

200 -

125

100

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

225

200

175

150

- 125

100

7 5 I i • I < i I - . 1 i - I ' i I < i I . . I . . I . . I . . I i i I . . I . . I . , 1 i . 1 . . 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 i . 1 i . I . , 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 . . I i . I i i I . . I . . I . . I . i I i . 1 . . I i . I i i h . I TK

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948

* ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY^ ICE, AND, MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]

Period

1939 monthly average ... . ^1940 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average. _ _1943 monthly average1944 monthly average.. _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average .

1947: JuneJulyAugust.SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948; JanuaryFebruary.MarchApril....May __JuneJuly

All items l

99.4100. 2105.2116.5123. 6125.5128.4139. 3159.2

157. 1158.4160.3163.8163. 8164. 9167.0

168.8167.5166.9169.3170.5171.7173. 7

Food

95.296.6

105.5123.9138.0136. 1139. 1159.6.193.8

190.5193. 1196.5203.5201.6202.7206.9

209.7204.7202.3207.9210.9214. 1216.8

Clothing

100.5101.7106.3124.2129.7138.8145.9160. 2185.8

185.7184.7185.9187.6189.0190.2191.2

192. 1195. 1196.3196.4197.5196.9197. 1

Rent

104.3104.6106.2108.5108.0108. 2108.3108.6111.2

109.2110.0111.2113. 6114.9115.2115.4

115. 9116.0116.3116.3116.7117.0117. 3

1 Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.Source: Department of Labor.


WHOLESALE PRICESWholesale prices, after advancing to new all-time highs, have fluctuated around that level for severalweeks. Farm and food prices showed a downward trend while other prices continued their creepingadvance.

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE220

200

180

160

140

120

100

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE220

200

....-• \OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS

I 00

SOURCE? DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]

Week ended —

1946: Jan. 5...June 29 _ _ _Sept. 28..Dec. 28

1947: Mar. 29. _.June 28Sept. 27 ^Dec. 27 1

1948: Jan. 17 -Feb. 14 _Mar. 20Apr. 17 _May 29.... .June 5

12 -.19.26 ._

July 3 _10172431 _

Aug. 7 _142128

All commod-ities

106. 8112.7124.4139.6149. 4147.6156. 2163.0165.5159.7161.5162.9164.4164.2164.9165. 3166. 7166.7166.8168.9168.2168.3169.2169.0169.2168.4

Farmproducts

131.3140. 3156. 6167.7183.8179. 0184.7197.0201.5180.9187.6189.2193.0192.4193.5194. 5198.4197.2196. 1198.1194. 6192.2193. 6190.4191.0189. 3

Foods

108.0113.4133.0159. 1166.5162.2177.6177.8181.2173.3176.4178.8178. 0178.0180. 1180.7183.0184. 1185.3191.2190.4187.7190.0190. 3185.9187. 8

Other thanfarm and

foods

100.6105.4112.4123.9131.9132.0138.2146.0147.4147. 5147. 3148.3149.3149.3149. 3149. 5149.9149.8149.9150.4150. 6152. 1152.4152. 9153. 1153. 2

Source: Department of Labor.


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received in Aug. fell 3 percent, reflecting a decrease in the prices of most crops.Prices paid by farmers remained stable.


300

250'

200

150

100

50

MONTHLY AVERAGE

PRICES PAID(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)

PARITY RATIO

1 1 1 1 t i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1


300

250

200

150

100

50

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

J . F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1946 1947 1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]

Period

1939 monthly average1940 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1 943 monthly average1944 monthly average _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average

1947: June. .July...August.September __ _ _October _November .December ..

1948: January _ _ .February...MarchAprilMay ..June _JulyAugust..,.

. Z^fcTZ » • < M+'

Pricesreceived

by farmers *

95100124159192195202233278

271276276286289287301

307279283291289295301293

Prices paid byfarmers (includ-

ing interestand taxes)

124125132150162169172193231

230230234238239241245

251248247249250251251251

Parity ratio *

778094

106119115117121120

118120118120121119123

122112115117116118120117

1 August 1909-July 1914=100.8 Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.Source: Department of Agriculture.


STOCK PRICESStock prices continued their downward trend in August. Security markets were sluggish.


I 50

1 2 5

100

75

50

MONTHLY AVERAGE


150

125

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45

100

J F M A M J J

1946

SOURCE : STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]

Period

1939 monthly average1940 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1947: June

JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948: January -FebruaryMarchAprilMay -JuneJuly - -August —

Combinedindex 1

94.288. 180.069.491.999. 8

121.5139.9123.0119. 1126.0124.5123. 1125. 1123.6122.4120.1114.2116.4124.6130.2135. 1131.9127. 1

Industrials l

94.887.980.471.394.1

101.7123.3143.4128.0124. 1131.7130.2128.4131. 1130.3129.2126.0119.2121.8130.8136.9142.7138.9133.5

Railroads *

74.771. 170.666. 188.7

101.0136.9143.0105.397.6

108.2105.2103.6104.2100. 1103.9106.5101.9105.2115.2122.6125. 6124.7119.7

Utilities *

98.695.881.061.382.189.9

106.1120.2102.9100.8102*2101.4102.0101.097.294.095.192.693.096.299.2

100.699.197.3

1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,and 31 utilities.

Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.80772—48 2Digitized for FRASER

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENTLABOR FORCECivilian employment remained above 61 million in July as a large number of youths entering the summerlabor market were absorbed by agriculture and industry. Due primarily to vacations, the number employedbut not at work increased greatly. Unemployment continued at a low level.

75 — MILLIONS OF PERSONS

50

25

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

1941 1944 1945 1946

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

25

J F M ' A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A . S O N D O F M_ A M J J A S O N D

-

UNEM

i — i E 1

PLOYEC

. . L t 1 1 \ 1 I I I

1946\ } \ } } \ i i {..MS...! * * t L. . ' . ' I 1... i i i i i I o

1947 1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVI

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]

Period

1941 monthly average1944 monthly average. __1945 monthly average1946 monthly average...1947 monthly average

1947: JuneJulyAugustSeptember.October.NovemberDecember

1948: January.February _March _AprilMayJuneJuly...August l

Total laborforce, in-cludingarmedforces

57, 38065, 89065, 14060, 82061, 608

64, 00764, 03563, 01762, 13062, 21961, 51060, 870

60, 45561, 00461, 00561, 76061, 66064, 74065, 13564, 511

C]

Total

50, 35053, 96052, 82055, 25058, 027

60, 05560, 07959, 56958, 87259, 20458, 59557, 947

57, 14957, 13957, 32958, 33058, 66061, 29661, 61561, 245

vilian employ*

In non-agriculturalindustries

41, 25045, 01044, 24046, 93049, 761

49, 67850, 01350, 59450, 14550, 58350, 60950, 985

50, 08950, 36850, 48250, 88350, 80051, 89952, 45252, 801

3d

In agri-

9, 1008,9508,5808,3208,266

10, 37710, 0668,9758,7278,6227,9856,962

7, 0606, 7716, 8477,4487,8619,3969,1638,444

Armedforces

1,47011, 26011, 2803,3001,440

1,3981,3711,3521,3461,3271,2941,280

1, 2421, 2261,2361,2371,2381,2601,2931, 325

Unemployed

5,560670

1,0402,2702, 141

2,5552,5842,0961,9121,6871,6211,643

2,0652,6392, 4402, 1931,7612,1842,2271,941

1 Data became available after chart was prepared.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTNonagricultural employment continued at peak levels in July.

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

60

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES60

30

®mmFEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT:;•WrWS&Wft:^ •:•:

20

I 0 I 0

1939 1941 1944 1945

* SEE TABLE, FOOTNOTE I.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of employees]

Period

1939 monthly average --1941 monthly average1944 monthly average -1945 monthly average _ _1946 monthly average --1947 monthly average1947: June ---

July . _ _ _AugustSeptember - --OctoberNovemberDecember

1948 : JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay -JuneJuly 2

Total wageand salaryworkers l

30, 28736, 16441, 48040, 06941, 49443, 97043, 81643, 68644, 12544, 51344, 75844, 91845, 61844, 60344, 27944, 59944, 29544, 62645, 04645, 059

Manufac-turing

10, 07812, 97417, 11115, 30214, 51515, 90115, 67215, 58015, 96216, 17516, 20916, 25616, 35416, 26716, 18316, 26915, 94515, 60416, 16116, 181

Trade

6,7057,5677,3997,6858,8209, 4509,3249, 3169,3569, 4719, 6849,886

10, 2889,6229, 5209,5999,5749,6179,6719,638

Federal,State, andlocal gov-ernment

3,9874,6226, 0265,9675,6075,4505,4545, 3415,3185,4035,4145,3875, 6385,4985,4925,5465,5775, 6245,6075,596

Other

9,51711,00110, 94411, 11512, 55213, 17013, 36613, 44913, 48913, 46413, 45113,38913, 33813, 21613, 08413, 18513, 20213, 48113, 60713, 644

- Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked orreceived pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employedpersons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricul-tural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which includeproprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are notat work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the esti-mates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.

2 Preliminary estimate.Source: Department of Labor.


HOUF

50

40

30

20

1 0

0

50

40

30

20

10

0

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TlJu

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pr<

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45

*IVAGE

45

MEN

Bi

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4A

Al

T

L(

nm

,N

FE

OF

3E Wmanufacturinary data

UFACTURINi

* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11946

BUILDING

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i1946

LABOR

EEKLing and mosindicating o

3 INDUSTRI

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' ' '1947

CONSTRUCT!

i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 11947

Y HO>t nonmanufc

small decn

ES

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11948

noN

x— +•

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11948

UR1acturingBase in

HOUF

50

40

30

20

1 0

0

50

40

30

20

10

0

5iiV

s

I

idJu

PE

N

93

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93*

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9

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41

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r

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44

F^H

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45

r*i

45

P'nu

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dmated 40acturing inc

MINOUS CO

/I /%^4f-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11946

RETAIL T

— •"~ .

, , , , , ,1946

hours inlustries.

AL MINING

X IS-vV, , , , . ! , , , . .

1947

RADE

i " 11

, , , , , l , i , , .1947

'TT~-If

i i i i i 1 i i i t t1948

!.•*•.*»

1 I 1 1 I | j I 1 1 1

1948

[Hours per week, selected industries]

Period

1939 monthly average .1941 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average . .1946 monthly average _1947 monthly average _ _

1947: JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember..December ;

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune 3

July*.. „

All manu-facturingindustries

37.740.645.243.440.440.3

40.239.839.840.440.640.441.2

40.540.240.440. 139.940. 239.8

Bituminouscoal mining

27. 131. 143.442.341.640.7

43.731.839. 139. 139.938.541.2

40.938.740. 62 27.040.340.3

Privatebuilding

construction 1

32.634.839. 639.038. 137.8

37.737.939.738.038.036.637.9

37.236.737. 137.037. 137. 9

Retail trade

43.042.540.340.340.540.2

40.841. 141.040.040.039. 539.7

39.840.039. 839.839. 940. 3

8

1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.? Based on pay period during coal stoppage.8 Preliminary estimate.Source: Department of Labor.


WORK STOPPAGESAbout 2 million workdays were lost in July because of work stoppages. This represents only aslight increase over the June loss.

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE25

20

15

10

PEAK MONTH

\

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE25

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

10

J F M A M J J A S

1946

COUNCIL-OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939: Monthly averageApril* — peak month

1940: Monthly average1941: Monthly average

April — peak month1942: Monthly average1943: Monthly average

J une — peak month1944: Monthly average1945: Monthly average.

October — peak month1946: Monthly average1947: Monthly average1947: June

JulyAugust —SeptemberOctober - -NovemberDecember

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJuly1 — .-

Man-daysidle

(thousands)

1,4844,902

5591,9217,113

3491,1254,699

7273,1688,6109,6722,9084,0004,0002,5002,0001,900

700500

1,000725

6,0008,0004, 1002,0002,200

Principal stoppage

Coal.

Coal.

Coal.

Coal.

Coal, meat packing.Coal, meat packing.

Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONIndustrial production increased about 2 percent in August, thus regaining most of the loss in Julywhen there were many plant-wide vacations.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGEPoints in Total Index

250

200

150

100

50

250

200

150

1935-39 1943 1945AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE

100

A M J J

1946* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1935-39 monthly average!1943 monthly average...1945 monthly average...1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1947: June.

JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember „December

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarch.AprilMayJuneJuly iAugust l

Totalindustrialproduction

100239203170187184176182187190192192193194191188191192187191

Inde^

Total

100258214177194191183188192197199198200201200195197198193197

ces, 1935-

Manufact

Durablegoods

100360274192220219207210217223224229229226229217220222219222

39=100

ures

Nondura-ble goods

100176166165172168163169172176179173178180177177178178171176

Mining

100132137134149148140150153155155156154155142147162159154160

Point1935-39 a^

Manufc

Durablegoods

381361047383837980838485878786878283848384

3 in total increrage for to

Eictures

Nondura-ble goods

4783787781797679808384818384838383848083

lex,tal=100

Mining

1520212123232123232424242324222225242424

Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLEMANUFACTURESProduction of transportation equipment in July increased more than 5 percent above the June rate as thenumber of passenger cars and trucks assembled reached a new postwar peak. Lumber productionincreased more than seasonally. The output of iron and steel decreased about 3 percent.

PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT400

300

200

100

LUMBER AND PRODUCTS

MONTHLY AVERAGE

1935-39 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948

300

200

100

1935-39 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 1935-39 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1935-39 monthly average.1943 monthly average..1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average ._

1947: June - - - —July.AugustSeptember -OctoberNovember.- -December

1948: January _. -FebruaryMarchAprilMay '•JuneJuly *

Transportationequipment

100734487232230

233217213227232234243

244232240237218223235

Lumber andproducts

100130110130144

142133142140143150153

156150151145142140143

Iron and steel

100208183150195

193181188195204202205

203203207177207207201

1 Preliminary estimate.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal^Reserve System.


PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLEMANUFACTURESThe July output of texti le industries was about 9 percent below the June level. The output ofmost other nondurable industries continued steady.


300

200

100

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

MONTHLY AVERAGE

1935-39 43 45 1946 1947 1948

400

300

200

I 00

1935-39 43 45 1946 1947 1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.


300

200

100

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

1935-39 43 45 1946 1947 1948

MC>NTHU AV

—

IV

:R«

IA

6E

tn

NlIR&CTURED FO

i M i i 1 1 1 1 1 i

OD PRODUC

, , , , , ) , . , , ,

TS

, , , , , ! , , , , ,

400

300

200

100

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

1935-39 43 45 1946 1947 1948


[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1935-39 monthly average . _1943 monthly average :1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average

1947: June _ „JulyAugustSeptemberOctober _November _December

1948: JanuaryFebruary _March _AprilMayJune.July i

Textiles andproducts

100153146162163

155142154160164172163

178179175174176172157

Petroleumand coalproducts

100185235173193

191195201203204205208

214214211213220221220

Manufac-tured foodproducts

100145151150157

154155157158156158157

158160159158159164163

Chemicalproducts

100384284236251

250251249248248251255

255252250249249256255

1 Preliminary estimate.Source: Board of Gpvernors of the Federal Reserve System,


NEW CONSTRUCTIONConstruction of $ 1.8 billion in August exceeded the previous postwar record volume reachedin July.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

1,500

1,000

MONTHLY AVERAGE

TOTALNEW CONSTRUCTION

i FEDERALiiESTATE, AND!

LOCAL*:ii!

OTHER PRIVATE

RESIDENTIAL NONFARM

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

1,500

1,000

500 - ;- 500

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947

INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

] Millions of dollars]

Period

1939 monthly average _ _1942 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average _ _1947 monthly average1947: June

July..AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948 : JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune__ _ _ _ _JulyAugust 2

Total newconstruction

5261,118

345401871

1, 1651, 1621,2641,3641,4231,4971,4321,3201, 1571,0091, 1661,3111,4611,6161,7191,785

Pri

Totalprivate

317251152226688908885966

1,0421, 0861, 1291, 1411,097

948837940

1,0241, 1201,2351,3201,355

vate construct

Residential(nonfarm)

1761104557

265438405455500540590630610500400475525585635675690

ion

OtVuvn

141141107169422469480511542546539511487448437466499535600645665

Federal,State, and

local *

208867193174184257277298322337368291223209172226287341381399430

1 Includes public residential construction.Preliminary estimate.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 13


NEW HOUSING STARTSThe number of new houses started in July was 2,000 below the June number, but 13,000above that of a year ago.

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

100

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

100

40 - 40

20 - 20

•H- NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Period

1946 monthly average1947 monthly average

1947: January __February. _March _ _ > _April _ _MayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember . . . .

1 948 : January. _February . .MarchAprilMay _.JuneJuly _

New nonfa

Total

64, 68371, 125

39, 30042, 80056, 70067, 90073, 10079, 40081, 10086, 80093, 80094, 00079, 80058, 800

50, 00047, 20070, 00092, 00097, 00096, 00094, 000

rm units (conveiprefabricated) J

Urban

41, 16440, 125

24, 20025, 00032, 30038, 00039, 30043, 00044, 50047, 40050, 30053, 20048, 00036, 300

30, 40028, 80041, 80054, 30056, 40052, 90053, 000

itional and

Rural nonfarm

23, 52031, 000

15, 10017, 80024, 40029, 90033, 80036, 40036, 60039, 40043, 50040, 80031, 80022, 500

19, 60018, 40028, 20037, 70040, 60043, 10041, 000

1 New nonfarn* family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Labor.


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANTAND EQUIPMENTPlans of nonagricultural business for spending $18.3 billion (annual rate) on new plant and equipmentin 3rd quarter 1948, are at about the same level as 2nd quarter, and $1.7 billion more than actual expendituresa year ago. The anticipated increase over a year ago reflects mainly the upward movement of prices.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS25

20

15

10

ANN UAL TOTALS


1939 1941 1945

TRANSPORTATION ANDELECTRIC AND GAS:::: ''

MANUFACTURINGAND

MINING

* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION.

SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]

Period

19391941194519461947

1947: First quarterSecond quarter ._Third quarterFourth quarter

1948: First quarterSecond quarter 8

Third quarter 3

Total i

5,2008, 1906,630

12, 04016, 180

12, 64015, 76016, 56019, 760

16, 68018, 76018, 280

Manufac-turing

1,9303,4003,2105, 9107,460

5,8007,4007,4809,160

7,2008,0407,400

Mining

380680440560690

600640720840

720720720

Transp

Railroad

280560550570910

640880920

1,200

1,0801,4001,520

ortation

Other

280340320660800

720920800760

720840680

Electric andgas utilities

480710630

1,0401,900

1,3201,8002,0002,480

2,0002,4402,600

Commercialand miscel-

1,8502,4901,4803,3004,430

3,6004,1204,6405,360

4,9605,3205,360

1 Excludes agriculture.2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Com-

merce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged tocurrent expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and otherdata.

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).


NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUESNew issues in 2nd quarter 1948 were slightly higher than in the previous quarter. The proportion ofproceeds earmarked for plant and equipment continued to increase.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3 .0

2.5

2.0

1 . 5

1.0

QUARTERLY AVERAGE

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

3.0

2 .5

2.0

1939 1943 1945

.5

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[Millions of dollars]

Period

1939 quarterly average.. _ _1943 quarterly average .1945 quarterly average1946 quarterly average „1947 quarterly average

1947: First quarter. _ _Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter

1948: First quarter _ _ _Second quarter

Estimatednet pro-

ceeds

529287

1,4761,6891,528

1,0181,6051,2662,223

1, 6141,663

1

Total

8177

270820

1,068

673932797

1,867

1,4001,353

Droposed uses

New money

Plant andequipment

4335

159529806

396636649

1,542

8451,080

of net proceed

Workingcapital

3942

111291261

278296148325

555274

3

Retirementof debt and

stock l

448210

1,206869460

344672469354

214309

1 Includes small amount for other purposes.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.


1

1i

BILL

30

20

10

0

BILL

30

20

1 0

0

INVENTManufacturing sandustries. Depar

IONS OF DOLLARS

NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS

*~\+ ~'

x/^"*^

1 \ 1 1 \ | 1 1 1 1 1

1946

.IONS OF DOLLARS

INVENTORIES^

— -J-^X— — -*'"'

S

! 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1

1946

x SALES ARE TOTAL FOR

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF <

OKIES 1les in July weretment store sales

MANUFACTURING

3NAL VARIATION ^«. *

INVENTORIES*

yv<— /7 — S

SALES*

1 1 i 1 I 1 I i I i i1947

RETAIL

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

X^.» — «*.. — — *****"

r ' ' '""" **1ALES*

i t i I i 1 i t i i i1947

¥ONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE

COMMERCE AND BOARD OF 60

IND SAI10 percent below

showed a slight

s-A^

i i i i i 1 i i i i j1948

I I 1 I I 1 t I 1 I 1

1948

BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.

VERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R

LiESJune bincrea

BILL

30

20

1 0

0

PERCE

4OO

300

200

1 00

ICSERVE SYS1

ecause of plant-wide vacations inse.

IONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-> !!S— i„ ~^^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i * 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 1 11946 1947

NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

DEPARTMENT STORE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SALES"*

^y^ / s*^^^ /X^~ INVENTORIES**

'*'

i i 1 1 i i I i i 1 t i i 1 1 . 1 1 1 i I i I1946 1947

*K INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOfBOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH

PEM.

many

— *~

^

1 1 ! I ! 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

S

s~%***\l--f\

1 1 f 1 1 1 I I ! 1 1

1948

7 MOUTH AND RETAIL

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER 5

Period

1946: March......JuneSeptemberDecember... ^ ...

1947: MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune0

July'.... _

Manufa<

18, 77519, 47221, 50223, 43525, 39825, 85326, 44026, 47926, 84627, 05127, 05527, 39727, 62728, 02028, 50128, 76829, 06429, 16129, 43729, 73830,100

Bturing *

Sales <

10, 71211, 13113, 05514, 63515, 54615, 39815, 04815, 06314, 36115, 25716, 59718, 08216, 55417, 52316,55216, 22518, 11717, 22916, 77717, 86616, 000

Whol(

Inventories *

Millions (

4,3044,5785,1315,9946,6116, 7786,7376,8646,7266,8866,9976,9437,3497,5777,6187,7548,0548,0498,0718,239

jsale *

Sales 4

Df dollars

9,69110, 37011, 40213, 05212, 62712, 21812, 36912, 54112, 40312, 52313, 26313, 61514, 33313, 69714, 09613, 99313, 42613, 68413, 84713, 740

Ret

Inventories *

8,0238,9179,995

11, 04911, 83211, 97411, 77211, 94811, 92511, 94412, 07312, 43512, 62112, 95313, 38413, 75114, 04013, 90713, 95114, 168

ail3

Sales *

7,7838, 1018,8119,2059, 3999,6109,6819,7439,7309,621

10, 16210, 25810, 48510, 65310, 44510, 38110, 56510, 84110, 59910, 715

Departnu

Inventories

1935-39=10ad jus

177210226274273264252242231227231251273283288303312308296283

jnt stores

Sales

0, seasonallyted«

255275272276272278290288287284294279302303286286285306310312315

1 Not adjusted for seasonal variation.1 Adjusted for seasonal variation.

8 Book value, end of month.4 Total for month.

6 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales formonth and retail book value of inventories, end of month.

8 Preliminary estimate.Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


EXPORTS AND IMPORTSImports increased again in June. The value of exports continued down.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,400 -

1,200

1,000 -

800

600 -

400

200 -

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

— 1,400

- 1,200

— 1,000

800

- 600

400

— 200

1936-38

* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES. FOR OCCUPIED. AREAS*X RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY


Period

1936-38 monthly average1943 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average

1947: MayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember .

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay ' ^JuneJulys

Exports *

2471,080

877849

1,281

1,5031, 3201, 2651,2651,1831,3031,1951, 199

1,0911,0861,1411,1221, 1031,0131,022

Imports s

207282346409478

474463450400481492455601

546582666527549616559

Excess ofexports

40798531440803

1,029857815865702811740598

545504475595554397463

1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas,2 Recorded general merchandise imports.3 Data became available after chart was prepared.Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.


PURCHASING POWER

NATIONAL INCOMENational income increased very little in 2nd quarter, the only significant increase being inbusiness and professional income (part of proprietors' income as shown on the chart).


200

I 50

100

50

ANNUAL TOTALS

1939 1944 1945

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL NATIONALINCOME

CORPORATE PROFITS ANDINVENTORY VALUATIONADJUSTMENT.

PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL88S& INCOME

1 2 3 41946

I COMPENSATION OFEMPLOYEES

1 2 3 41947 1948

200

I 00

I 00

50

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939194419451946 -1947

1947: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter

1948: First quarter1

Second quarter1

TotalNationalIncome

72.5182.4181.7179.3202.5

197.3199.3200.6212.8

215. 1217.4

Compensa-tion of

employees

47.8121.1122.9117.3127.5

Annual i

125.0125.3127.6132.2

133.7133.9

Proprietors'and rental

income

14.734.136.041.846.0

•ates, seasonall

46.444.644.448.6

50.651.9

Net interest

4.23. 13.03.44.3

y adjusted

4. 14.24.44.5

4.64.7

Corporate prof-its and inven-tory valuation

adjustment

5.824.019.816.824.7

21.825.224.327.5

26.226.9

1 Revised.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


CORPORATE PROFITSCorporate profits for 1st. quarter of this year were just below the peak reached in 4th. quarter 1947.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

3 0

2 0

I 0

ANNUAL TOTALS

1929 1939Ji

1943

* A0 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.



ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

^, (Ii / l 1^

^hiiB^M''!1''!!.'..''/!'!.'!.",''I '.'! ill' iril. i'H ii •."•• •::l.ll: :.. ::. »i!>

2 . 3

1946

«• »:<•[""PlYiV'•:.'« .'fflfli'V!:^:*^^ ".•'•,. . .. L!.' !!5 . ..5. If!.. . i. r .. . 5. s

^{UNDISTRIBUTED ! « „PROFITS!; t^hi'i'i'i;,,VjWJSm&lK^

2 3

1947

\ PROFITS~ > AFTER

TAXES

30

2 0

I 0

2 3 4

1948

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

19291939194319461947


1948: First quarter. „

Corporateprofits

before taxes

9.86.5

24.521.829.8

28.928.829. 132.4

31.4

Corporatetax

liability

1.41.5

14.29.0

11.7

Annual i

11.411.311.412.7

12.2

Corpo

Total

8.45.0

10.412.818.1

•ates, seasonal!

17.517.517.719.7

19.2

rate profits af1

Dividendpayments

5.83.84.55.66.9

y adjusted

6.46.76.97.1

7.3

ter taxes

Undistributedprofits

2.61.25.97.2

11.2

11.110.810.812.6

11.9

NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventoryjvaluation adjustment. See p. 19 for profits aftertaxes and inventory valuation adjustment.

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.

aoDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PERSONAL INCOMEWage increases and a further rise in farm income (part of proprietors1 income shown on chart) pushed personalincome in June to the record level of $211.9 billion (annual rate)—$4.7 billion higher than the May rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

200 200

I 50 150


100 100

1939 1944 1945 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

1946' TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947

A M J J A S O N

1947


D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1948



Period

1939...19441945 -19461947

1947: MayJuneJuly-.AugustSeptember _October.. _NovemberDecember

1948: JanuaryFebruary. _.MarchAprilMayJune

Totalpersonalincome

72.6164.5170.3178.1195.2

188.6192. 4193.2190.8206.2200.0201.4207.7

209.4206.8205.6207.4207.2211.9

Salaries, wages,and other

labor income

45.6116. 1116.8111. 4121.9

Annual n

118.8121.4121. 2121.9123.8124. 6127.4129.3

129.4128.9127.6127.0128.8131.3

Proprietors1

and rentalincome

14.734. 136.041.846.0

ites, seasonal!}

44.245. 145.342. 845.047.547. 151.3

52.450.049.351.950.753.0

Dividendsand interest

9.210.611.413.515.6

r adjusted

15.315.415. 615.616.215.916.116.2

16. 516.616.616.716.816.8

Social securityand GI pay-

ments

3.03.66.2

11.411.7

10.310.511. 110.521. 212.010.810.9

11. 111.312. 111.810.911.0

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGConsumption income increased more than expenditures in the 2nd quarter, according to revised dataThere was a small increase in the rate of saving.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

200 200

I 50


DISPOSABLEPERSONAL INCOME

CONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURES

I 50

f 00 I 00

1939 1940

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES** PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE


Period

1939.1940194119421943 . ...1944. _19451946. _1947

1947: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter .

1948: First quarter 2 _Second quarter 2

Disposablepersonalincome J

70.275. 792.0

116.2131.6145.6149. 4159.2173.6

Annual ]

169.7168.2175.0180.9

183.7187.3

Less: Personalconsumptionexpenditures

67.572. 182.390.8

101.6111.4122.8147.4164.8

rates, seasonally

158.1164. 2165.6171.1

172.0175. 1

Equals: Per-sonal saving

2.73. 79. 8

25.430. 034,226. 611. 88.8

adjusted

11. 64. 19. 49.7

11.712.2

22

1 Income less taxes.* Revised.NOTE.—-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


PER CAPITA INCOMEReal purchasing power per capita has been almost stationary for a year.

DOLLARS

1,600

1,200

800

400

1947 DOLLARS**

CURRENT DOLLARS

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES,

#* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947*100

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

DOLLARS

1,600

I I

2 3 4 1 2 3

1946 1947*## PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.

2***3

1948

1,200

800

400


Period

1939194019411942 — .194319441945..1946 - -1947 -

1947: First quarter ..» ...Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter..

1948: First quarter8

Second quarter3

Per capita dispmco

Currentdollars

$536574691863964

1,0541,0701,1271,205

Annual rateadju

1,1861,1701, 2121,246

1,2611,280

osable personalme *

1947 dollars *

$859913

1,0451,1791,2421,3381,3261,2881,205

s, seasonallyisted

1,2241, 1911,2001,200

1,1981,195

Consumers'price index,1947=100

62.462.966. 173.277. 678.880.787.5

100.0

Not adjustedfor seasonal

variation

96.998.2

101.0103.8

105.3107.0

1 Income less taxes.8 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.1 Revised.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.


1

^\1

DOLLA

1.50

1.00

.50

0

2.00

1.50

1.0.0

.50

0

AVERACAverage hourly ecwere reached. Pn July.RS PER HOUR

-**"* *-"*„.

- K"""CUR

i i i t i 1 t i i i i1946

BITU

1947

***+ ^•—" "

~***J CUF

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

1946

# CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF

3E HOU]irnings continuedreliminary data 1

MANUFACTURING

1947 DOLLARS*

ajSU**---1"™RENT DOLLARS

i i i i i 1 i i i i i1947

MINOUS COAL Ml

DOLLARS*^x?-|

— %-^yRENT DOLLARS

i | i i i 1 i i i i i

1947

BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX Ot

LABOR.

RLY EA:to increase gene

:or manufacturin

—

1948

NING

rr i

! 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I

1948

V THE BASE 1947*100

RNIirally ing Indus

OOLLA

1.50

1.00

.50

0

2.00

1.50

1. 00

.50

0

NGSJune as furthertries indicate a

RS PER HOUR

19

-«•--— V ^

\)UF

. , I . . i . ! 1 . I

1946

PRIVATE

1947

__^^^ \CUF

i t i i i 1 i i i i i

1946

wage- increase <continuation of

RETAIL TRADE

47 DOLLARS*

iSSBl -*— " ••* S

RENT DOLLARS

i i i i i i i i i i i1947

: BUILDING CONST

DOLLARS* ^^^

RENT DOLLARS

i1947

agreementsthis trend

• •*

, . , , , ! , , . . .1948

RUCTION

• *~

, , . , , ! . , , . ,1948

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]

Period

1939 monthly average1941 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average.1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1947: May

JuneJulyAugust. _ _SeptemberOctober _NovemberDecember

1948: JanuaryFebruary __

MarchAprilMayJune4

July4

Manufa

Currentdollars

$0. 633.729

1. 0191.0231.0841.2211.2071.2261.2301.2361.2491.2581.2681.2781.2851.2871.2891.2921.3021.3171.330

icturing

1947dollars 8

$1.0141. 1031.2931.2681.2391.2211.2321.2421.2361.2271.2141.2231.2241.2181.2121.2231.2301.2151.2161.2211.212

Retail

Currentdollars

$0. 536.568.724.773.878.991.985.996

1.0031.0031.0121. 0131.0251.0161.0441.0501.0441. 0551.0641.070

trade

1947dollars 8

$0. 859.859.919.958

1. 003.991

1.0051.0091.008.996.983.986.989.969.985.998.996.992.993.992

Bituminous

Currentdollars

$0. 886.993

1.1861.2401. 4011.6441.4701.4891.7401.7871.8191.7981.8511.8261.8471.8261.842

* 1. 8211. 8411.848

coal mining

1947dollars *

$1. 4201.5021.5051.5371.6011.6441.5001.5091.7491.7751.7681.7471.7871.7411.7421.7361.758

» 1. 7131.7191. 713

Private buildtio

Currentdollars

$0. 9321.0101.3191.3791.4781.6761.6561.6611.6691.6891.7181.7381.7651.7741.7811.8061.8051.8181.8351.858

ing construe-n *

1947dollars J

$1. 4941.5281.6741.7091.6891.6761.6901.6831.6771.6771.6701.6891.7041.691.680.717.722,710.713,722

24

1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.8 Current dollars divided by consumers1 price index on the base 1947=100.Source: Department of Labor.

* Based on pay period during coal stoppage.* Preliminary estimate.


1

>

DOLL

60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

AVERACAverage weekly <workweek. Prelimn July.

.ARS PER WEEK

' CURREN

«*x*"" "

1 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 ! ! 1

1946

BITU

CUR

"'*'~^ f\*

, , , , , !1946

* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED D

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF

JE WEEDarnings rose aginary data show

MANUFACTURING

T DOLLARS

— -~*~ J ./

1947 DOLLARS*


MINOUS COAL Ml

RENT DOLLARS

•N ^*— -^^'"* 71947 DOLLARS

1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1

1947

URING THESE MONTHS BECAUSt

LABOR.

KLY EAain m June refle

that a shorter

!•

*

. , , , . ! , , , , .1948

NING

\£*~

* *

i i i t i 1 i t i i i1948

" OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VAC

.RN3cting bworkwe

DOLL

60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

AT IONS. X- *

INGSoth wage increo*ek kept manufai

ARS PER WEEK

CUR

. *~

1 1 1 I 1 1 1 t 1 1 1

1946

PRIVATE

CUR

^^\•- _-^~^^

1 1 f 1 I 1 t I 1 1 1

1946

CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8

>es and a slightcturing earnings

RETAIL TRADE

RENT DOLLARS„_ \

U.M ^-X»>»^

/1947 DOLLARS

t t i t i 1 i i i t i1947

I BUILDING CONST

RENT DOLLARS

: - 5^y^/1947 DOLLARS*

1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

' CONSUMER'S PRICE INDEX 01

c

y lengthenedstable

KM

( I 1 I I 1 1 t 1 t 11948

RUCTION

_^~^

*


V BASE OF 1947 = 100

.OUNCIU OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]

TJA_J-. Jjrenoa

1939 monthly average..1941 monthly average..1944 monthly average..1945 monthly average..1946 monthly average..1947 monthly average..1947: May

JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948: JanuaryFebruaryMarchApril..May -June 4

July4

Manuffi

Currentdollars

$23. 8629.5846.0844.3943.7449.2548.4449.3348.9849. 1750.4751.0551.2952.6952.0751.7552.0751. 7951.8652.9552.96

icturing

1947 dollars »

$38. 2444.7558.4855.0149.9949.2549.4349.9849.2348.8349.0549. 6149.5150.2349. 1249. 1949. 6948.7248. 4249.0748.54

Retail

Currentdollars

$21. 1721.9426.5828.3132.5536.6736.5037.8237.9938. 1437.0636.7437. 1437.5137.6238.3338.8939.2739.8440.52

trade

1947 dollars*

$33. 9333. 1933.7335.0837.2036.6737.2438.3238. 1837.8736.0235.7035.8535.7635.4936. 4437. 1136. 9437.2037.55

Bituminous

Currentdollars

$23. 8830.8651.2752.2558.0366. 8665.5167.0954.8770.2371. 1971.9171.7775.2275.7870.5474.84

3 49. 5374.0974.53

coal mining

1947 dollars *

$38. 2746.6965.0664.7566.3266.8666.8567.9755. 1569.7469. 1869.8869.2871.7171.4967.0571.41

3 46. 5969. 1869.07

Private bustruc

Currentdollars

$30. 3935.1452. 1853.7356.2463.3062.3862.6863.3066.9765.2266. 1464. 5567.3166.2866.3166.8967.3168. 1370.51

ilding con-tion *

1947 dollars *

$48. 7053. 1666.2266.5864.2763.3063.6563.5163.6266.5063.3864.2862.3164.1762.5363.0363.8363.3263.6165.35

1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.* Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.Source: Department of Labor.

* Based on pay period during coal stoppage.4 Preliminary estimate.


FARM INCOMEIncome of farmers in July rose 10 percent over June as the peak of wheat harvesting wasreached. Farm income in August is expected to be just below the July level,

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS4

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 N D J F M AM A M J J A S O

1946* CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.** FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES .PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939'

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

M J J A

1947

S O N O J F M A M J J A

1948

S 0 N 0


Period

1939 monthly average1940 monthly average. .- _1941 monthly average .1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average _ _1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1947: June

JulyAugustSeptember _OctoberNovember ._December.

1948 : January .FebruaryMarch *AprilMayJuneJuly4

Farm income(millions of

currentdollars) »

723761981

1,3401,6781,7531,8572,1102,5432,2112,6622,5173,0603, 7733, 1092,9272,5811,8662,0012,0962,1032,4132,655

Prices paid byfarmers (incl.interest and

taxes) 1939=100 3

100.0100.8106.5121.0130.6136.3138. 7155.6186.3185.5185.5188.7191.9192.7194. 4197.6202.4200.0199.2200.8201.6202.4202.4

Farm income(millions of

1939 dollars)8

723755921

1, 1071,2851,2861,3391,3561,3651,1921,4351,3341,5951,9581,5991,4811,275

9331,0051,0441,0431,1921,312

1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.8 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939=4 Preliminary.Source: Department!©! Agriculture.

= 100.


PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESIn 2nd quarter, durable purchases more than recovered from their 1st quarter drop; services andnondurables continued up.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

150

100

50

ANNUAL TOTALS

1939 1944 1945

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200


TOTAL EXPENDITURES

2 3

1946

NONDURABLE GOODS:

1 2 3 4

1947

I 2" 3 4

1948

150

100

50

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S


Period

1939 „1944194519461947 -_

1947: First quarter. _Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter _

1948: First quarter1 +.Second quarter »..J

Per

Total

67.5111.4122. 8147.4164.8

An

158.1164. 2165.6171.1

172.0175.1

sonal consump

Nondurablegoods

35.367.575.487.596.5

nual rates, se£

92.596.396.8

100.2

101.0102.4

>tion expenditi

Durablegoods

6.76.98.3

16.221.0

isonally adjust

19. 621.121.122.1

21.422.3

ires

Services

25.537.039.243.647.3

ed

46.046.747.748.8

49.650.4

1 Revised.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


CONSUMER CREDITAn increase in instalment credit in July was about offset by a drop in charge accounts.

BJLLIONS OF DOLLARS16

14

12

10


1929 1939 1941 1943

END OF YEAR

J F M J J A S O N ' D J

1946

F M A M J J A S O N D J

1947

END OF MONTH

M A M J J A S O N D

1948

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys tem*SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT

Council of Economic Advisers


1929.1939.1941.1943.1945.1946.1947.1947:

1948:

End of period

JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchApril _MayJune _July 3

Totalconsumer

creditoutstanding

7.68.09.95.36.6

10.213.411.211.311.511.712. 112.713.413. 113.013.413.613.814. 114.2

Instalmentcredit 1

3.24.45.92.02.43.96.24.95. 15.25.35.55.86.26.26.36.56.77.07. 17.3

Chargeaccounts

1.71.51.81.52.03. 13.62.92.82.82.93.03.33.63.23. 13.33.33.33.43.2

Otherconsumer

credit 2

2.72.02.21.92.33. 13.63.43.43.53.53.63.63.63.63.63.63.63.63.73.7

28

1 Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Hous-ing Administration.

2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.3 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTSCommercial bank loans increased significantly from June to July. Government security holdings weresomewhat higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

100

75

50

25

125

100

1929 1939 1945END OF YEAR

SOURCE: Boord of Governors of the Federal Rese rve Sys tem

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL (All commercial banks)

I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I I 1J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J* A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

1948END OF MONTH

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATECounci l of Economic Advisers


End of period

192919391945 -1946 -1947 —

1947: JuneJulyAugust -SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1948: January -FebruaryMarch .ApriLMay .JuneJuly1

Totalloans and

investments

49.540. 7

124.0114.0116.4

112.8113.4114.0115.2116.3116.6116.3

116.6115. 5113,6114.3114.5113.7114.6

Bank loans

36.017.226. 131.138.1

33.734.034.935.536.837.638. 1

38.238.738.938.839.439.740.0

Total

13.523.497.982.978,3

79.179.479. 179.779.579.078.2

78.476.974.775.575. 174.074.7

Investments

U. S.Government

securities

4.816.390.674.869.3

70.570.770.370.870.570.169.2

69.467.965.566.365.964.865.3

Othersecurities

8.77. 17.38. 19.0

8.58. 78. 88.99.08.99.0

9.09.09.39.29.29.29.4

1 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily adcfto totals because of rounding,Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


MONEY SUPPLYTotal money supply increased in July chiefly "as a result of a rise in private demand deposits.


125

100

75

50

25 m


125

100

1929 1939 1941 1943 1946

END OF YEAR

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys tem

U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

1945 1946

END OF MONTH

1948PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

Counci l of Econom'ic Advisers


1929.1939..1941.1943.1945.1946.1947.1947:

1948:

End of period

June ._JulyAugustSeptember _.OctoberNovember ..December _ _JanuaryFebruary ..March _.AprilMay _JuneJuly 3 _

Total moneysupply

26.537.050.590. 1

126. 9113. 1115. 1109. 8110.6111. 3112.5113.5114.4115. 1113.7112.0109.6110.9111.0110.8111. 5

Currencyoutsidebanks

3.66.49.6

18.826.526.726.526.326.026.226.426.326.626.525.825.725.625.425.425.625.4

Adjusteddemand

deposits l

22.829.839.060.875.983.387. 182. 183.283.484.285 485. 987. 186.684.681.683.083.283.083. 7

U.S.Government

deposits 3

0.2.8

1.910.424.63.11.51.41.41.71.91.81.91.51.31.82.42.52.42.22.4

1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of col-lection.

2 Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.* Preliminary estimate.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM ANDPAYMENTS TO THE PUBLICThe excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 1st half of 1948 was §7.6 billion. Preliminaryestimates for the last half of 1948 indicate a close balance.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20

15

10

QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20

I I

I 2 3

1946

SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT

2 3

1947

2* 31948

15

10



Calendar year by quarters



1948: First quarter _Second quarter l

Federal cashreceipts from

the public

14, 15311, 08910, 3759,868

14, 96211, 42910, 46810, 008

15, 73211, 390

Federal cashpayments to

the public

13, 64813, 5909, 1048,907

9,77212, 19710, 5018,665

9, 32210, 159

Excess of re-ceipts (4-) or

payments (— )

+ 505-2, 501+ 1,271

+ 961

+ 5, 190-768-33

+ 1,343

+ 6,410+ 1,231

1 Preliminary estimate.Source: Treasury Department.

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C,Price 15 cents
