economic integration in asia: progress and … · economic integration in asia: progress and...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Integration in Asia: Progress and Challenges
Cyn‒Young Park Director, Regional Cooperation and Integration Division Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD) Asian Development Bank
4th IMF-Hitotsubashi Seminar on Macroeconomic and Financial Issues Advances and Challenges in Regional Integration March 3-4, 2016, Tokyo
2
Outline
• Progress of Regional Economic Integration • Business Cycles and Growth Spillovers
• Trade Integration and Regional Value Chain
• Trade slowdown and PRC Factors • Global trade slowdown: Cyclical and Structural factors
• Structural transformation in PRC
• Financial integration and volatility • Structural patterns of capital flows to Asia
• FDI vs. Portfolio and other investment
Progress of regional economic integration
Growth of ASEAN+3 less correlated with the US
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
ASEAN-4 NIE-3 PRC JPN
ASEAN+3 Business Cycle Correlation with US
Note: ASEAN-4 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. NIE-3 includes Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Singapore. Three-year moving correlations based on cyclical Hodrick-Prescott filtered seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product at constant prices. Source: ADB calculations using data from Haver Analytics and national sources.
Growth of ASEAN+3 more correlated with Japan recently
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
ASEAN-4 NIE-3 PRC
ASEAN+3 Business Cycle Correlation with Japan
Note: ASEAN-4 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. NIE-3 includes Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Singapore. Three-year moving correlations based on cyclical Hodrick-Prescott filtered seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product at constant prices. Source: ADB calculations using data from Haver Analytics and national sources.
Growth of ASEAN+3 also more correlated with PRC recently
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
ASEAN-4 NIE-3 JPN
ASEAN+3 Business Cycle Correlation with the PRC
Note: ASEAN-4 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. NIE-3 includes Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Singapore. Three-year moving correlations based on cyclical Hodrick-Prescott filtered seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product at constant prices. Source: ADB calculations using data from Haver Analytics and national sources.
AEIR 2015: Progress of Regional Economic Integration 7
Share of Asian output variance due to external and local factors (%, x-axis = # of quarters)
Pre-GFC = 2001Q1 to 2008Q1; Post-GFC = 2009Q1 to 2015Q2. Average for sample economies. Source: ADB calculations.
Asian economies more vulnerable to growth shock from PRC and their own domestic shocks
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Jan-
90
Apr
-91
Jul-9
2
Oct
-93
Jan-
95
Apr
-96
Jul-9
7
Oct
-98
Jan-
00
Apr
-01
Jul-0
2
Oct
-03
Jan-
05
Apr
-06
Jul-0
7
Oct
-08
Jan-
10
Apr
-11
Jul-1
2
Oct
-13
Jan-
15
ASEAN+3 US non-oil imports Correlation (RHS)
Note: ASEAN+3 refers to ASEAN including PRC; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea, Rep. of. US non-oil imports computed by subtracting imports of energy-related petroleum products and crude petroleum. Source: ADB calculation using data from CEIC: (US Census Bureau) and Direction of Trade Statistics, International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Correlation between growth in ASEAN+3 exports and US non-oil imports
0.35
0.91
0.76
1990s
2000s
2010s
9
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
-60.0 -40.0 -20.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 Ja
n-90
Feb-
91
Mar
-92
Apr
-93
May
-94
Jun-
95
Jul-9
6
Aug
-97
Sep
-98
Oct
-99
Nov
-00
Dec
-01
Jan-
03
Feb-
04
Mar
-05
Apr
-06
May
-07
Jun-
08
Jul-0
9
Aug
-10
NIE-3 PRC non-oil imports Correlation (RHS) NIE-3 = Hong Kong, China; Korea, Rep. of; and Singapore. Note: non-oil imports computed by subtracting mineral fuel, lubricants, and related materials imports from the sum of total primary, manufactures, and commodities n.e.s based on SITC. Source: ADB calculation using data from CEIC and Direction of Trade Statistics, International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Correlation between growth in NIE-3 exports and PRC non-oil imports
0.54
1990s
2000s
2010s
0.85 0.82
10
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
-60.0 -40.0 -20.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 Ja
n-90
Feb-
91
Mar
-92
Apr
-93
May
-94
Jun-
95
Jul-9
6
Aug
-97
Sep
-98
Oct
-99
Nov
-00
Dec
-01
Jan-
03
Feb-
04
Mar
-05
Apr
-06
May
-07
Jun-
08
Jul-0
9
Aug
-10
ASEAN PRC non-oil imports Correlation (RHS) Note: non-oil imports computed by subtracting mineral fuel, lubricants, and related materials imports from the sum of total primary, manufactures, and commodities n.e.s based on SITC. Source: ADB calculation using data from CEIC and Direction of Trade Statistics, International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Correlation between growth in ASEAN exports and PRC non-oil imports
0.52
1990s
2000s
2010s
0.80 0.73
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2000
ASEAN+3 ROW
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+326.8%[5.9%]
RestoftheWorld73.2%
FinalDemand8.7%[1.4%]
Production18.1%[4.4%]
Production40.1%
FinalDemand33.1%
11.5%[3.3%]
6.6%
26.1%
14.0%
Totalfinal
demand34.2%
G239.9%
Totalfinal
demand65.8%
Others26.0%
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2005
ASEAN+3 ROW
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+328.9%[8.5%]
RestoftheWorld71.1%
FinalDemand9.0%[1.8%]
Production19.9%[6.7%]
Production40.6%
FinalDemand30.5%
11.9%[4.2%]
8.0%
25.7%
14.9%
Totalfinal
demand35.8%
G241.4%
Totalfinal
demand64.2%
Others22.8%
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2011
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
ASEAN+3 ROW
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+328.4%[9.5%]
RestoftheWorld71.6%
FinalDemand8.5%[2.0%]
Production19.9%[7.5%]
Production40.7%
FinalDemand30.9%
13.1%[5.3%]
6.8%
26.8%
13.9%
Totalfinal
demand35.6%
G232.6%
Totalfinal
demand64.4%
Others32.8%
Source:AsiaRegionalIntegrationCenter(ARIC)calculationsusingdatafromWorldInput-Output(IO)TablesandADBMultiregionalInput-Outputtables(ADB-MRIO),andmethodologyfromZ.Wang,S-J.Wei,andK.Zhu.2014.QuantifyingInternationalProduction
Trade slowdown and PRC factors
15
Asia’s overall trade growth slows
-15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20 25
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP Total Trade
Asia
-15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20 25
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP Total Trade
World
Trade and GDP Growth (%)
Fall in trade growth due to: • Sluggish demand recovery in advanced economies.
• Growth moderation in PRC.
• Slower pace of expansion in global and regional value chains.
16
G-7 share is declining while PRC share rising
5.1 5.2 4.9
2.0 3.4 11.5 13.4 13.8
6.5 8.7 12.4 12.8 12.8 2.4 3.4 4.3 4.6 4.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
1981 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015e
G-7 BRICS ex PRC PRC NIES ASEAN ex SIN ROW
Shares in world trade volume (% of world trade volume)
G-7 = UK, US, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada. Note: Trade volume is estimated by using annual trade volume growth rates on 2001 trade values and extending the series in the specified years. 2015 trade estimates using 3-year compounded average growth rate. Source: ADB calculations using data from World Trade Organization Trade Statistics.
17
G-7 and PRC contribute around a half of world trade growth
0.2
4.1
10.9
13.9
2.5 2.8
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
1981 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015e G-7 BRICS ex PRC PRC NIES ASEAN ex SIN ROW World
Contribution to world trade volume growth (% of world trade volume growth)
G-7 = UK, US, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada. Note: Trade volume is estimated by using annual trade volume growth rates on 2001 trade values and extending the series in the specified years. 2015 trade estimates refers to WTO's latest forecast last September 2015. Source: ADB calculation using data from WTO Trade Statistics.
Significant trade links within and across subregions
18
Central Asia
East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
The Pacific & Oceania
Intrasubregional trade All goods 4.3** 3.3** 0.9** 4.3** 0.7 Capital 3.7** 1.2** 1.7** 2.5** 0.2 Consumption 4.5** 2.5** 1.1** 3.6** -0.5 Intermediate 3.4** 3.7** 0.6 5.0** -0.2
Intersubregional trade All goods 0.7* 0.6* 3.8** 0.8** 1.7** Capital 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.0** Consumption 0.8* 0.8** 3.5** 0.7* 2.2** Intermediate -0.1 -0.1 3.8** 0.4 0.7*
Gravity Model Results
19
Asia’s Trade Linkage, 2014 (Numbers in parentheses = 2010)
Asian Subregional Trade Linkages, 2014 (Numbers in parentheses = 2010)
Note: Based on trade intensity (or trade bias), which is the ratio of the trading partner’s share to a country/region, and the share of world trade with the same trading partner. It is calculated as (Tij/Ti)/(Tj/Tw), where Tij is the dollar value of total trade of i with j; Ti is the dollar value of total trade of i with world; Tj dollar value of total trade of j with world; and Tw total world trade. Source: ADB calculation using data from Direction of Trade Statistics, International Monetary Fund.
20
Trade Links with the rest of the World─East Asia and Southeast Asia, 2014 (Numbers in parentheses = 2010)
Note: Based on trade intensity (or trade bias), which is the ratio of the trading partner s share to a country/region, and the share of world trade with the same trading partner. It is calculated as (Tij/Ti)/(Tj/Tw), where Tij is the dollar value of total trade of i with j; Ti is the dollar value of total trade of i with world; Tj dollar value of total trade of j with world; and Tw total world trade. Source: ADB calculation using data from Direction of Trade Statistics, International Monetary Fund.
Regional value chains are deepening
21
DVA = domestic value added, FVA = foreign value added, RDV = returned domestic value added, PDC = pure double counting component.
22
PRC’s structural transformation presents both challenges and opportunities
Top 20 Asian Exporters to the PRC (% of country’s total exports, 2014)
PRC’s imports from Asia ($ billion)
23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-
00
Sep
-00
May
-01
Jan-
02
Sep
-02
May
-03
Jan-
04
Sep
-04
May
-05
Jan-
06
Sep
-06
May
-07
Jan-
08
Sep
-08
May
-09
Jan-
10
Sep
-10
May
-11
Jan-
12
Sep
-12
May
-13
Jan-
14
Sep
-14
May
-15
Jan-
16
Energy Agriculture Fertilizers Metals & Minerals Precious Metals
Note: Monthly indexes based on nominal US dollars, 2010=100. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet)
Commodity Prices (nominal monthly, 2010=100)
Commodity prices have declined (again) since 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
Energy Agriculture Fertilizers Metals & Minerals Precious Metals
Note: Annual indexes, 2010=100, 1960 to present, real 2005 US dollars. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
Real Commodity Prices (2010=100, annual, based on 2005 US$)
24
Some countries heavily dependent on commodity exports are hit by “double whammies”
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
SLE
CA
F
MS
R
QAT
MO
N
MW
I
PR
Y
BR
U
MR
T
NE
R
ZWE
AU
S
MO
Z
AR
M
RW
A
BE
N
PE
R
GIN
CH
L
BH
S
TZA
BR
A
MN
E
PRC Rest of the World
ARM=Armenia; AUS=Australia; BEN=Benin; BHS=Bahamas; BRA=Brazil; BRU=Brunei Darussalam; CAF=Central African Rep.; CHL=Chile; GIN=Guinea; MNE=Montenegro; MON=Mongolia; MOZ=Mozambique; MRT=Mauritania; MSR=Montserrat; MWI=Malawi; NER=Niger; PER=Peru; PRY=Paraguay; QAT=Qatar; RWA=Rwanda; SLE =Sierra Leone; TZA=United Rep. of Tanzania; ZWE=Zimbabwe. Note: Includes economies with commodity exports as % of total exports of more than 30%. Data based on SITC Rev 3. Commodity items include primary consumption goods (primary food and beverages for household consumption ) and selected intermediate goods (primary food and beverages for industry, primary industrial supplies, and primary and processed fuels and lubricants) as defined under Broad Economic Categories. Source: ADB calculations using data from UN Commodity Trade Database.
Top Commodity Exporters' Commodity Export Share ‒ 2014 (% of economy's total exports)
25
Overall trade costs need to be lowered
37.6
23.1
19.8
18.3
18.5
10.6
7.7
30.5
19.0
18.7
17.6
16.7
11.6
7.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Sub-SaharanAfrica
MiddleEast&NorthAfrica
EastAsia&Pacific
Europe&CentralAsia
LaHnAmerica&Caribbean
EuropeanUnion
NorthAmerica
Timetoexport Timetoimport
TimetoExportandImportbyRegion(2014,days)
11.1
9.6
6.9
8.4
4.2
5.3
9.5
7.0
9.1
7.1
5.3
4.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
CentralAsia
SouthAsia
Oceania
ThePacific
EastAsia
SoutheastAsia
Documentstoexport Documentstoimport
NumberofDocumentstoExportandImportinAsiaandthePacificbySubregion(2014)
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.
Financial integration and volatility
27
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-
95
Oct
-95
Jul-9
6
Apr
-97
Jan-
98
Oct
-98
Jul-9
9
Apr
-00
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Jul-0
2
Apr
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jul-0
5
Apr
-06
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr
-09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr
-12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
Jul-1
4
Apr
-15
Financial Stress Index—ASEAN+3
Mexico crisis
Asian crisis, Russian default, and Brazil crisis
Turkish stock
market crash Argentine
crisis
Economic impact of SARS outbreak, and Latin America crisis
Global financial crisis
1st Greek bailout
Euro crisis, Egypt and
Indian economic
woes Taper
Tantrum
PRC currency devaluation, and
stock market crash
US Policy Normalization
Note: Based on principal components analysis. Includes People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan; Rep. of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Viet Nam Source: ADB staff calculation using Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance and CEIC
Dec
-15
28
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
PRC
PHI
KOR
THA
VIE
INO
MAL
JPN
HKG
SIN
2010 2014
Note: Data used for 2010 for PHI is 2012 and 2011 for THA. Source: ADB calculations using data from International Financial Statistics, IMF; and national sources.
Short-term external debt (% of reserves)
29
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
INO
THA
PHI
MAL
KOR
PRC
JPN
SIN
HKG
2013 2015
Net International Investment Position (% of GDP)
Note: Based on BPM-6 data (assets less liabilities). Includes foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment, and foreign reserves. 2015 refers to end Q3-2015 for all, except for INO (Q1-2015) and MAL (Q2-2015). Source: ADB calculations using data from International Financial Statistics, IMF; and national sources.
30
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Russian Federation
Mexico
Peru
Canada
Korea, Rep. of
People's Republic of China
Papua New Guinea
Chile
Philippines
Hong Kong, China
Australia
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Thailand
New Zealand
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
Malaysia
Japan
Change in Foreign Exchange Rate (%)
3 months ending 9 Nov 2015 (% change)
3 months ending 9 Feb 2016 (% change)
Note: Based on US$ value of local currency. An increase means appreciation, decrease means depreciation. Source: ADB calculation using Bloomberg.
Net capital flows turned negative in 2014 and 2015
31
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 Other Investment Debt Equity FDI Net Capital Flow
Net Capital Flows to Asia ($ billion)
Note: Includes the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Japan; Republic of Korea; Philippines; and Thailand. Source: ADB calculations using data from International Financial Statistics, IMF; and national sources.
Sources of Financial Flows – Asia
32
FDI = foreign direct investment, EUA = euro area, ROW = rest of the world, US = United States Source: ADB staff calculations using data from ASEAN Secretariat, BIS, IMF, CPIS, OECD, and UNCTAD
FDI,2216,42%
BankLending,900,17%
Debt,923,17%
Equity,1248,24%
Asia,216,17%
US,577,46%
EUA,249,20%
ROW,206,17%
Asia,332,36%
US,161,17%
EUA,144,16%
ROW,286,31%
Asia,509,49% US,206,
20%
EUA,-72,-7%
ROW,257,24%
Asia,1135,51%
US,78,4%
EUA,217,10%
ROW,786,35%
Total Inflows to Asia (cumulative, 2010-2014, $ billion)
FDI,2086,42%
BankLending,1061,21%
Debt,462,9%
Equity,1384,28%
Asia,216,16%
US,369,27%EUA,
168,12%
ROW,631,45%
Asia,332,40%
US,310,38%
EUA,-32,-4%
ROW,-148,-18%
Asia,509,48%US,
444,42%
EUA,11,1%
ROW,97,9%
Asia,1135,54%
US,160,8%
EUA,722,35%
ROW,69,3%
Sources of Financial Flows – Asia
33
FDI = foreign direct investment, EUA = euro area, ROW = rest of the world, US = United States Source: ADB staff calculations using data from ASEAN Secretariat, BIS, IMF, CPIS, OECD, and UNCTAD
Total Outflows to Asia (cumulative, 2010-2014, $ billion)
Asia has become an important source of FDI
34
Total FDI Flows─Asia ($ billion)
FDI = foreign direct investment, LHS = left-hand scale, RHS = right-hand scale.
Key Messages
• PRC slowdown, financial volatility, and weak commodity prices are key downside risks to the outlook
• PRC business cycle exerts increasingly large influence Asian business cycles
• Trade growth in Asia slows; (a) Cyclical and structural factors (b) Regional value chain reached its maturity
• PRC’s structural transformation presents both opportunities & challenges for Asia:
• Renewed financial vulnerabilities underscored by the structural patterns of capital flows to the region:
• FDI is mostly intra-regional • Portfolio and other investments are inter-regional
35
Spare Slides
36
Gross Exports Decomposition, 2011
Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+329.0%[10.0%]
RestoftheWorld71.0%
FinalDemand8.3%[1.9%]
Production20.7%[8.1%]
Production41.5%
FinalDemand29.5%
10.4%[4.2%]
10.2%
21.7%
19.8%
Totalfinal
demand38.6%
G233.3%
Totalfinal
demand61.4%
Others28.1%
Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
Gross Exports Decomposition, 2005
ASEAN +3 100%
ASEAN +3 29.1% [8.5%]
Rest of the World 70.1%
Final Demand 8.9% [1.7%]
Production 20.2% [6.8%]
Production 41.2%
Final Demand 29.8%
9.5% [3.3%]
10.7%
20.8%
20.4%
Total final
demand
38.8%
G2 41.3%
Total final
demand 61.2%
Others 19.9%
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+329.1%[8.5%]
RestoftheWorld70.9%
FinalDemand8.9%[1.7%]
Production20.2%[6.8%]
Production41.2%
FinalDemand29.8%
9.5%[3.3%]
10.7%
20.8%
20.4%
Totalfinal
demand38.8%
G241.3%
Totalfinal
demand61.2%
Others19.9%
Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
Gross Exports Decomposition, 2000
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+327.6%[6.0%]
RestoftheWorld72.4%
FinalDemand9.1%[1.4%]
Production18.6%[4.6%]
Production40.2%
FinalDemand32.2%
9.6%[2.6%]
8.9%
22.0%
18.3%
Totalfinal
demand36.9%
G240.0%
Totalfinal
demand63.1%
Others23.1%
40
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2011
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value + Foreign value-added Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+328.3%[9.7%]
RestoftheWorld71.7%
FinalDemand8.3%[2.0%]
Production20.0%[7.7%]
Production41.7%
FinalDemand30.0%
13.0%[5.2%]
7.0%
27.0%
14.7%
Totalfinal
demand36.0%
G232.4%
Totalfinal
demand64.0%
Others31.6%
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2005
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+328.9%[8.5%]
RestoftheWorld71.1%
FinalDemand8.8%[1.8%]
Production20.1%[6.7%]
Production41.5%
FinalDemand29.7%
12.0%[4.2%]
8.1%
26.0%
15.4%
Totalfinal
demand36.2%
G241.2%
Totalfinal
demand63.8%
Others22.6%
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value + Foreign value-added Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.
Value-Added Export Decomposition, 2000
ASEAN+3100%
ASEAN+326.8%[5.8%]
RestoftheWorld73.2%
FinalDemand8.5%[1.4%]
Production18.3%[4.4%]
Production40.9%
FinalDemand32.3%
11.6%[3.2%]
6.7%
26.5%
14.4%
Totalfinal
demand34.5%
G239.8%
Totalfinal
demand65.5%
Others25.7%
Value-added export decomposition = Domestic value-added + Returned domestic value + Foreign value-added Source: Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) calculations using data from World Input-Output (IO) Tables and ADB Multiregional Input-Output tables (ADB-MRIO), and methodology from Z. Wang, S-J. Wei, and K. Zhu. 2014. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sectoral Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 19677. Cambridge, MA: NBER. Note: Except for Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam IO tables, which were constructed by ADB, the rest were sourced from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). While the WIOD and ADB IO tables have been constructed in a clear conceptual framework on the basis of officially published input-output tables in conjunction with national accounts and international trade statistics, level numbers are likely to remain different from those officially released by the respective economies.