economic outlook michael wolf, economist september 12, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Economics 22
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 4.2%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.5%
Forecast
Gross Domestic Product
Real GDP declined in the first quarter, but those contractionary forces
should prove to be temporary
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 4
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Government Purchases Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Government Purchases-CAGR: Q2 @ 1.4%
Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q2 @ -0.8%
Forecast
Government Purchases
The public sector has remained a weight on the
overall economy, but should soon move back into being a minor contributor to overall
growth
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 5
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit12-Month Moving Sum in Billions of Dollars
Surplus or Deficit: J ul @ -$533 Billion
U.S. Budget Deficit
Deficit is shrinking, but not nearly fast enough
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 6
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
U.S. Budget GapCBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP
Outlays: 2024 @ 22.1%
Revenues: 2024 @ 18.3%
U.S. Budget Gap
The larger problem is that there is still no credible plan to move back into a
surplus
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 77
Federal Government Spending: Entitlements in the Driver’s Seat
Entitlement programs are the main drivers of growing
expenditures
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$0.0T
$0.5T
$1.0T
$1.5T
$2.0T
$2.5T
$3.0T
$3.5T
$4.0T
$0.0T
$0.5T
$1.0T
$1.5T
$2.0T
$2.5T
$3.0T
$3.5T
$4.0T
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
U.S. Federal Government Mandatory OutlaysTrillions of U.S. Dollars, Projections Begin in 2014
Other Programs: 2024 @ $0.2TIncome Security: 2024 @ $0.3TSocial Security: 2024 @ $1.5THealthcare Programs: 2024 @ $1.6T
Economics 9
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Business Fixed InvestmentBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q2 @ 8.4%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 6.4%
Forecast
Business Investment
Business investment looks to be strengthening after a hiccup earlier in the year
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 10
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
U.S. Nonfin. Corporate Cash HoldingsTotal Assets Market Value, U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations
Cash Ratio: Q1 @ 4.3%
4-Q Moving Average: Q1 @ 4.4%
Corporate Cash
The financial health of the corporate sector is very strong and should allow
corporations to spend more going forward
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 11
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Commercial and Industrial LoansAt Commercial Banks in the United States
Year-over-Year Change: J ul @ 10.9%
3-Month Annualized Rate: J ul @ 11.9%
Business Lending
Commercial and industrial lending has surged over the
past quarter, helped by easier credit and increased
demand
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 12
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
ISM Manufacturing Composite IndexDiffusion Index
ISM Manufacturing Index: Aug @ 59.0
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 55.5
Manufacturing
Large, Global Businesses:Recent pickup in activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 13
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Industrial Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Square Feet
Industrial Net Completions: Q2 @ 20.2M SF (Right Axis)
Industrial Net Absorption: Q2 @ 30.7M SF (Right Axis)
Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 7.2% (Left Axis)
CRE: Industrial
A rise in manufacturing and energy production has fueled growth in the industrial real estate
market
Source: PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 14
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
40
60
80
100
120
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Production & J obs in Manufacturing SectorIndex, 2007=100 on Left Axis, Right Axis in Millions
Manufacturing Production: J ul @ 100.7 (Left Axis)Manufacturing Employment: Aug @ 12.2 Million (Right Axis)
NAFTA China J oins WTO
Manufacturing: Production and Jobs Gap
Rising manufacturing production has not led to
huge job gains
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 15
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Office Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Square Feet
Office Net Completions: Q2 @ 4.3M SF (Right Axis)Office Net Absorption: Q2 @ 3.0M SF (Right Axis)Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 16.8% (Left Axis)
CRE: Office
Improvement in the office sector has been more
modest despite strong gains in office-using employment
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 16
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Commercial Real Estate Vacancy RatesPercent
Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 16.8%Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 7.2%Retail Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 10.3%Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.1%
Commercial Real Estate
The recovery has been uneven across property
types
Source: Reis, Inc., PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 17
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIBOverall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100
Wells Fargo Overall Situation: Q3 2014 @ 49.0 (Left Axis)
Small Business Optimism: Q2 2014 @ 95.6 (Right Axis)
Small Businesses
Small Businesses:A full recovery in small
business optimism is still distant, with taxes and
regulation remaining the two big issues
Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 1919
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
PCE - CAGR: Q2 @ 2.5%PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.3%
Forecast
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumption should rebound during the forecast period but growth is likely
to remain somewhat subdued
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 20
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Nonfarm Employment ChangeChange in Employment, In Thousands
Monthly Change: Aug @ 142K
Employment
Total employment finally breached its prerecession
peak…
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 21
110
113
116
119
122
125
128
125
128
131
134
137
140
143
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Full-Time vs. Total EmploymentMillions
Total Employees: Aug @ 139.1 M (Left Axis)Total Full-Time Employees: Aug @ 118.6 M (Right Axis)
Full Time: 3.3 M Below Prerecession Peak
Total: 0.8 M Above Prerecession Peak
Employment: Structural
We still have a ways to go before recovering all of the
full-time jobs lost in the most recent recession
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 22
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Unemployment Measures
Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 6.1%
U-6 Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 12.0%
Unemployment
…but the unemployment rate overstates the health of
the labor market. Discouraged workers and an abundance of part-time
work rein in spending
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 23
1%
2%
3%
4%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Employment Cost Index Year-over-Year Percent Change
Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ 1.8%
Total Compensation: Q2 @ 2.0%
Wages and Salaries
In addition, wage growth has been relatively slow to
pick up, while inflation begins to pull away
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 24
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Lowest 20percent
Second 20percent
Third 20percent
Fourth 20percent
Highest 20percent
Income Growth by QuintilePercent Change from 1984 to 2012, After-Tax Income
Income Growth: Different Rates
After-tax nominal income has increased the most for
the lowest and highest income households since
the mid-1980s
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 25
-3.4%
1.2%
3.5%
5.6%
4.7%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Lowest 20percent
Second 20percent
Third 20percent
Fourth 20percent
Highest 20percent
Income Growth by QuintilePercent Change in Nominal After-Tax Income 2007-2012
Income Growth: Rising at Different Rates
Since 2007, income growth has been clearly
concentrated in the upper quintiles
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 26
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Household Debt - Consumer & MortgageAs a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Household Debt: Q1 @ 97.9%
Consumer Balance Sheet
Although consumer leverage remains elevated,
it is off its prerecession high
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 27
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Household Debt Service RatioDebt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
DSR: Q1 @ 9.9%
Debt Service Ratio
And the debt service ratio has fallen to historical lows
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 2828
Household Debt
Rising student loan debt is crowding out other borrowing, particularly for autos and credit cards
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
20132003
Mortgage, 70.2%
Student Loans, 3.1%
Auto Loans, 8.7%
Credit Card, 8.7%
HE Revolving, 3.7%
Other, 5.6%
Household Debt - 2003
Mortgage, 70.0%
Student Loans, 9.1%
Auto Loans, 7.5%
Credit Card, 6.0%
HE Revolving, 4.7%
Other, 2.7%
Household Debt - 2013
Economics 30
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Existing Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Millions
Existing Home Sales: J ul @ 5.2 M
Housing Market: Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales have started to rebound but
remain lower than a year ago
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 31
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Existing Home SalesExisting Homes Sold During Month, 2002=100
Northeast: J ul @ 64.0Midwest: J ul @ 87.8South: J ul @ 100.0West: J ul @ 87.3
Housing Market: Home Sales
The recent weakness was seen across regions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 32
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
New Home SalesSeasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands
New Home Sales: J ul @ 412,000
3-Month Moving Average: J ul @ 429,333
Housing Market: New Home Sales
New home sales have seen only modest improvement
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 33
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Conventional 30-Year Mortgage RatePercent, FHLMC Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortg. Rate: Sep-10 @ 4.10%
Mortgage Rates
Although mortgage rates remain low by historical
standards, the rise over last year has had a negative effect on homebuying
Source: Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 34
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Residential Loan Standards and DemandPrime Mortgages, Net Percent of Banks Reporting Change
Tightening Standards: Q3 @ -18.3%
Reporting Stronger Demand: Q3 @ 45.1%
Residential Loan Standards
Demand appears to be strengthening as tightening
standards decrease
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 35
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Confidence: Plans to Buy a HomePercent of Consumers, Conference Board
Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months: Aug @ 4.9%
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 5.5%
Home Purchase Expectations
But other indicators show that demand remains soft
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 36
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Home PricesYear-over-Year Percentage Change
Median Sale Price: J ul @ $223,900Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: J ul @ 4.4%FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: J un @ 5.1%S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: J un @ 8.1%
Home Prices
Home price gains have moderated considerably
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 37
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Single-Family Home InventoryMillions of Units
New Homes: J ul @ 0.21MExisting Homes: J ul @ 2.09M
Housing Market: Inventories
Low inventories have applied upward pressure on
price
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 38
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Distressed Home SalesPercent of Total Sales
Total Distressed: J ul @ 9.0%
Housing Market: Distressed Home Sales
Fewer distressed homes available at a discount also keep prices moving higher
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 3939
Housing Market Fundamentals Are Changing
Household formations remain well below their historical norms, and a larger proportion of new households are choosing to rent
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Owners vs. RentersHousehold Formation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13
Household FormationMillions of Households Formed
Household Formation: 2013 @ 0.45 Million1965-2001 Average: 2013 @ 1.28 Million
* 1982 and 2001 replaced with previous and prior year average to account for series breaks
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10
U.S. Homeowners vs. RentersAnnual Change in Occupied Units, In Thousands
Renters: 2013 @ 525.5 ThousandHomeowners: 2013 @ -76.5 Thousand
Series Break 1981
Economics 40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1,050
1,200
1,350
1,500
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
New Home Sales vs. Wells Fargo NAHB IndexThousands of Units, Index
New Home Sales: J ul @ 412,000 (Left Axis)
Wells Fargo NAHB Index: Aug @ 55.0 (Right Axis)
Housing Market: Home Sales
Despite slow growth in new home sales, homebuilders
remain a bit more optimistic
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 41
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Apartment Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units
Apartment Net Completions: Q2 @ 34,431 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Net Absorption: Q2 @ 35,539 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.1% (Left Axis)
Housing Market: Apartments
Some builders are likely benefitting from growth in
the multifamily market, where apartment demand and construction remains
strong
Source: Reis and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 42
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Existing Condominium Resales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
Condo Sales: J ul @ 600,000
Housing Market: Condos
Existing condo sales had also slipped recently but the
upward trajectory is clear
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 43
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Thousa
nds
Housing StartsMillions of Units
Multifamily StartsMultifamily ForecastSingle-family StartsSingle-family Forecast
Forecast
Housing Market: Residential Construction
We expect residential construction to continue to
advance, though a full recovery in the housing market is a long way off
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 44
U.S. Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2.7 1.8 4.5 3.5 - 2.1 4.2 2.0 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.9
Personal Consumption 3.6 1.8 2.0 3.7 1.2 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.5
Inflation Indicators 2
PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.3 3.1 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.3
Industrial Production 1 4.2 1.9 2.5 4.9 3.9 5.3 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.1 4.8
Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 3.1 3.9 4.9 4.7 - 4.8 - 0.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 11.4 4.2 0.7 4.3
Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.2 77.5 75.2 76.4 76.9 75.9 77.3 77.5 70.9 73.5 75.9 76.9 78.7
Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.9 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.7
Housing Starts 4 0.95 0.86 0.88 1.03 0.93 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.61 0.78 0.92 0.97 1.10
Quarter- End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.63Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.46 4.34 4.16 4.04 4.25 4.46 3.66 3.98 4.20 4.3910 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 3.04 2.73 2.53 2.44 2.70 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.60 2.92
Forecast as of: August 29, 20141 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency I ndex, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages
ForecastActual
2014
ForecastActual
2013
Client/Prospect Name
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
45
John E. Silvia … ....................... … [email protected]
Global Head of Research and Economics
Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics
Chief Economist
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… …[email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist……[email protected]
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………[email protected]
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . [email protected]
Senior Economists
Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst [email protected]
EconomistsAzhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………[email protected]
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist [email protected]
Sarah Watt House, Economist …………… …………[email protected]
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … [email protected]
Michael T. Wolf, Economist ………………… … [email protected]
Economic Analysts
Administrative Assistants
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Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant.
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant [email protected]