economic outlook november 2010
DESCRIPTION
Economic Outlook November 2010. Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education. Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster? . Sources of Economic Growth. Inventory Buildup. Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic OutlookNovember 2010
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![Page 3: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Recession ImpactFewer Moving
Delay in MarriageOne Car
Office at HomeMore Education
![Page 4: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why is the U.S.economic growth
so lackluster?
![Page 5: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Sources of Economic Growth
![Page 6: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Inventory Buildup
![Page 7: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
![Page 8: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Percent of Long-term Unemployed
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Household Debt Is Still High
![Page 11: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
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Housing
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History of Home Prices
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Housing Affordability Index
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Home Prices
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Mortgage Rate
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Double-dip in Housing?
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Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
![Page 20: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
DistressDistressed Home Sales
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Homeowner Vacancy Rate
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State & LocalGovernments
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State and Local Government Payroll
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State and Local Government Drag
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Fiscal Stimulus
No Ammunition
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Budget Deficits % of GDP
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Tax Increase?
Current 2011
Top Income Tax Rate 35% 41%
Capital Gains Rate 15 20
Top Dividend Rate 15 39.6
Estate Tax 0 55
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Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
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OOOOOOoooutpOutput Gap
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Why QE?•Short Rate Zero
•Lower Bond Yields•Weaker Dollar
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Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds
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Currency War?
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Blue Chip Economic Forecasts
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Double-dipYes/No ?
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No Double-dip?•Tax Cuts
•QE2•Low Base
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Inflationor
Deflation
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Major Inflation and Deflation
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Lower Inflation Expectations
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Why No DeflationInflation Expectations
Wage RigiditiesImport Prices
Monetary Policy
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No DeflationInflation Eventually
Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes
TaxesFees
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Election
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Assessments of Government Economic Policy
University of Michigan
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90 Days after Mid-term
(1922-2006)
8.5 percent
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Mid-term Elections and S&P 500
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Stocks and Election Cycle
(1871-2005)
First Second Third Fourth
3.0% -2.7% 10.1% 7.5%
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Key IssuesTax & Budget
EnergyTrade
China CurrencyFinancial ReformHousing Finance
Health careImmigration
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Compromise or Not?
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Video Clip
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Global Economy
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Rebalancing Global Trade
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Internal Rebalancing
•Domestic Demand•Budgets
•Finance/Credit
![Page 55: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
External Rebalancing
•Deficit CountriesIncrease Exports
•Surplus CountriesIncrease Consumption
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Government Debt % of GDP
![Page 57: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Debt to GDPOver 90%: 1.7%
Vs.Below 30%: 3.5%
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Over 100%
Stunt Growth
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Soft Landing in China?
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8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
2008 2009 2010 2011
China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
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ChineseChinese Currency Undervalued
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Ventura County
![Page 65: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
260,000
270,000
280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Total, All Industries (jobs)
VC Employment
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Civilian Unemployment Rate (percent of labor force)
VC Unemployment Rate
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-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Educational & Health Services job growth (year-on-year)
VC Education and Health Jobs
![Page 68: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Other Services job growth (year-on-year)
VC Other Service Jobs
![Page 69: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Retail Trade job growth (year-on-year)
VC Retail Trade jobs
![Page 70: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Information job growth (year-on-year)
Information Jobs
![Page 71: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Financial Activities job growth (year-on-year)
VC Financial Jobs
![Page 72: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Ventura County
Leisure & Hospitality job growth (year-on-year)
VC Leisure-Hospitality Jobs
![Page 73: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Demographics
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1/1/72 1/1/78 1/1/84 1/1/90 1/1/1996 1/1/2002 1/1/2008
Population Growth Year on Year
Ventura County
Percent Change
![Page 75: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Lost Decade?
![Page 76: Economic Outlook November 2010](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816949550346895de0dd53/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
DrSohn.com
(not Dr.Sohn.com)
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TIPS and 10-yr Treasury Yield Curves
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