James W. Hughes, Dean

2011

Economic Overview

                 

Length of Recessions in Months Since 1929

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Percent Change in Real GDP: U.S.(seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Percent Change in Real GDP: U.S.(seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Percent Change in Real GDP: U.S.(seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2008 - 2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2008 12-Month Loss: -3,784,0002009 12-Month Loss: -4,987,000Total 2008-2009 Loss: -8,771,000

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2008 - 2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2010 12-Month Employment Gain:

+1,173,000

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2010 12-Month Employment Gain:

+1,173,000

U.S. Private-Sector EmploymentCumulative Losses (thousands), Jan. 2008 – Sep. 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Recovery is on track…

Source: Tom Toles, Washington Post.

But it’s narrow gauge

Source: Tom Toles, Washington Post.

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009, 2010, 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Private-Sector EmploymentAverage Monthly Change, 2009, 2010, 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Private-Sector EmploymentQuarterly Change, 2009, 2010, 2011

1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000 574,000

415,000

352,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Private-Sector Employment and GDP RecoveriesPercent Change Since Start of RecessionDecember 2007 – June 2011

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 48-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

GDPPrivate-Sector Employment

Months Since Start of Recession

42 months

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Post-Recession GDP Recoveries

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Months

July 1981 – November 1982

Current

21 months

42 months to date

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, Wall Street Journal.

December 2007 –June 2009

New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009, 2010, 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

New Jersey Private-Sector EmploymentAverage Monthly Change, 2009, 2010, 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

New Jersey Private Sector Employment Monthly, 1990-2011 (seasonally adjusted, in thousands)

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor.

Sep-11

3,241Sep-98

U.S. Housing Starts, 2000-2011(seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.