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Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas October 23, 2017

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Page 1: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Economic Overview

Prince William/Manassas

October 23, 2017

Page 2: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

2

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ............................................................................................................................................................ 3

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

WAGE TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6

COST OF LIVING INDEX ............................................................................................................................................................... 6

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 7

OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 9

INDUSTRY CLUSTERS ................................................................................................................................................................ 11

EDUCATION LEVELS .................................................................................................................................................................. 11

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT .................................................................................................................................................... 12

REGION DEFINITION ................................................................................................................................................................. 13

FAQ .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14

Page 3: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

3

Demographic Profile In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s

population grew at an annual average rate of 2.3%.

The region has a civilian labor force of 268,493 with a participation rate of 72.7%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the

Prince William/Manassas, 38.3% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 31.3% in the nation.

The median household income in the Prince William/Manassas is $95,805 and the median house value is $326,440.

Summary1

Percent Value

Prince

William/Man

assas

District of

Columbia USA

Prince

William/Man

assas

District of

Columbia USA

Demographics

Population6 — — — 512,608 681,170 323,127,513

Population Annual Average Growth6 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 10,531 11,049 2,474,760

Median Age2,4 — — — 33.3 33.8 37.2

Under 18 Years4 28.8% 16.8% 24.0% 130,981 100,815 74,181,467

18 to 24 Years4 8.6% 14.5% 9.9% 38,986 87,015 30,672,088

25 to 34 Years4 15.1% 20.7% 13.3% 68,477 124,745 41,063,948

35 to 44 Years4 16.2% 13.4% 13.3% 73,392 80,659 41,070,606

45 to 54 Years4 15.1% 12.6% 14.6% 68,423 75,703 45,006,716

55 to 64 Years4 9.5% 10.6% 11.8% 43,204 63,977 36,482,729

65 to 74 Years4 4.4% 6.1% 7.0% 19,863 36,969 21,713,429

75 Years, and Over4 2.4% 5.3% 6.0% 10,770 31,840 18,554,555

Race: White4 58.1% 38.5% 72.4% 263,722 231,471 223,553,265

Race: Black or African American4 19.4% 50.7% 12.6% 88,236 305,125 38,929,319

Race: American Indian and Alaska Native4 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 2,677 2,079 2,932,248

Race: Asian4 7.4% 3.5% 4.8% 33,482 21,056 14,674,252

Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 597 302 540,013

Race: Some Other Race4 9.4% 4.1% 6.2% 42,478 24,374 19,107,368

Race: Two or More Races4 5.0% 2.9% 2.9% 22,904 17,316 9,009,073

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)4 21.6% 9.1% 16.3% 97,981 54,749 50,477,594

Economic

Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian

population 16 years and over) 72.7% 68.3% 63.3% 268,493 373,626 158,897,824

Armed Forces Labor Force 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 6,093 3,446 1,015,464

Veterans, Age 18-64 11.0% 3.6% 5.5% 34,143 16,613 10,750,884

Median Household Income2 — — — $95,805 $70,848 $53,889

Per Capita Income — — — $36,285 $47,675 $28,930

Poverty Level (of all people) 6.9% 18.0% 15.5% 33,916 110,365 47,749,043

Households Receiving Food Stamps 6.2% 14.9% 13.2% 9,486 40,686 15,399,651

Page 4: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

4

Summary1

Percent Value

Prince

William/Man

assas

District of

Columbia USA

Prince

William/Man

assas

District of

Columbia USA

Mean Commute Time (minutes) — — — 39.2 29.7 25.9

Commute via Public Transportation 5.7% 37.4% 5.1% 14,412 125,413 7,362,038

Union Membership3 5.2% 9.4% 10.7% — — —

Educational Attainment, Age 25-64

No High School Diploma 10.7% 9.0% 11.8% 29,061 34,405 19,736,243

High School Graduate 21.4% 16.9% 26.4% 58,278 64,388 43,982,863

Some College, No Degree 21.7% 13.4% 21.7% 59,073 50,941 36,187,232

Associate's Degree 8.0% 3.1% 8.8% 21,664 11,920 14,742,654

Bachelor's Degree 23.5% 25.1% 19.9% 64,105 95,648 33,245,950

Postgraduate Degree 14.8% 32.4% 11.4% 40,266 123,351 18,952,103

Housing

Total Housing Units — — — 160,965 303,312 133,351,840

Median House Value (of owner-occupied units)2 — — — $326,440 $475,800 $178,600

Homeowner Vacancy 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1,303 2,138 1,492,691

Rental Vacancy 3.7% 5.5% 6.4% 1,791 9,549 2,949,366

Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 29.2% 58.8% 36.1% 44,972 160,640 42,214,214

Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of

Occupied Units) 3.0% 36.4% 9.1% 4,670 99,554 10,628,474

Social

Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.6% 1.0% 1.4% 7,882 6,773 4,451,334

Disconnected Youth5 1.8% 4.3% 3.0% 463 1,449 518,859

Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 25.1% 56.0% 34.8% 33,523 58,080 24,408,909

With a Disability, Age 18-64 6.1% 9.1% 10.3% 18,971 41,560 19,985,588

With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation

Rate and Size 55.3% 41.8% 41.0% 10,487 17,354 8,185,456

Foreign Born 22.6% 14.1% 13.2% 111,793 91,588 41,717,420

Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and

over) 12.5% 5.4% 8.6% 56,627 32,636 25,410,756

Source: JobsEQ® 1. ACS 2011-2015, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census 2010 5. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006

Page 5: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

5

Employment Trends

As of 2017Q2, total employment for the Prince William/Manassas was 170,655 (based on a four-quarter moving

average). Over the year ending 2017Q2, employment increased 2.6% in the region.

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4

with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2.

Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Prince William/Manassas was 3.4% as of August 2017. The

regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.5%. One year earlier, in August 2016, the

unemployment rate in the Prince William/Manassas was 3.7%.

Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August 2017.

Page 6: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

6

Wage Trends

The average worker in the Prince William/Manassas earned annual wages of $47,753 as of 2017Q2. Average annual

wages per worker increased 3.2% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual

average wages were $53,284 in the nation as of 2017Q2.

Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are

updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2.

Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages

and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 41.1% higher in Prince

William/Manassas than the U.S. average.

Cost of Living Information

Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index

(Base US) US Purchasing Power

Prince William/Manassas $47,753 141.1 $33,834

District of Columbia $89,460 152.4 $58,701

USA $53,284 100.0 $53,284

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2017Q2 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary.

Page 7: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

7

Industry Snapshot

The largest sector in the Prince William/Manassas is Retail Trade, employing 27,019 workers. The next-largest

sectors in the region are Construction (20,385 workers) and Educational Services (19,581). High location quotients

(LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average.

The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Construction (LQ = 2.17), Retail Trade (1.47), and Educational

Services (1.39).

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4

with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2.

Sectors in the Prince William/Manassas with the highest average wages per worker are Professional, Scientific, and

Technical Services ($90,956), Public Administration ($84,878), and Utilities ($81,147). Regional sectors with the best

job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Construction (+3,348 jobs), Accommodation and

Food Services (+3,242), and Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,670).

Over the next 10 years, employment in the Prince William/Manassas is projected to expand by 28,239 jobs. The

fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.8% year-over-year

rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social

Assistance (+5,738 jobs), Construction (+4,423), and Retail Trade (+4,014).

Page 8: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

8

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending with

2017q2

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Average Annual % Change in

Employment 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years

NAICS Industry Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages

Location

Quotient Empl

Prince

William/

Manassas

District of

Columbia USA

Total

Approx

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

11 Agriculture, Forestry,

Fishing and Hunting 249 $23,437 0.10 26 2.2% -6.6% 0.8% 91 20 0.8%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and

Oil and Gas Extraction 112 $73,999 0.16 17 3.4% -12.4% -4.9% 28 9 0.8%

22 Utilities 574 $81,147 0.63 -30 -1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 149 26 0.4%

23 Construction 20,385 $55,281 2.17 3,348 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 4,381 4,423 2.0%

31 Manufacturing 4,282 $68,505 0.31 -484 -2.1% -1.1% 0.8% 975 -161 -0.4%

42 Wholesale Trade 3,583 $62,988 0.54 215 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 838 486 1.3%

44 Retail Trade 27,019 $28,553 1.47 2,280 1.8% 4.0% 1.3% 8,919 4,014 1.4%

48 Transportation and

Warehousing 4,323 $46,818 0.60 513 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 1,144 173 0.4%

51 Information 1,458 $70,493 0.43 -283 -3.5% -1.2% 0.8% 361 88 0.6%

52 Finance and Insurance 2,844 $69,531 0.42 543 4.3% -0.4% 1.1% 712 401 1.3%

53 Real Estate and Rental

and Leasing 2,574 $51,421 0.89 257 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 607 339 1.2%

54 Professional, Scientific,

and Technical Services 14,471 $90,956 1.29 880 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% 3,298 3,417 2.1%

55 Management of

Companies and

Enterprises 888 $77,540 0.35 40 0.9% 4.8% 2.9% 198 99 1.1%

56

Administrative and

Support and Waste

Management and

Remediation Services

10,912 $35,647 0.99 2,345 5.0% 1.1% 2.6% 2,596 1,541 1.3%

61 Educational Services 19,581 $46,308 1.39 1,026 1.1% 3.4% 0.7% 4,366 2,957 1.4%

62 Health Care and Social

Assistance 18,362 $47,359 0.76 2,670 3.2% 1.2% 2.5% 4,005 5,738 2.8%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and

Recreation 4,418 $29,180 1.30 685 3.4% 2.7% 2.3% 1,442 731 1.5%

72 Accommodation and

Food Services 16,821 $17,854 1.10 3,242 4.4% 3.0% 3.0% 6,241 2,318 1.3%

81 Other Services (except

Public Administration) 8,836 $31,936 1.17 1,046 2.6% 1.3% -0.2% 2,346 1,188 1.3%

92 Public Administration 8,595 $84,878 1.06 -459 -1.0% -0.4% 0.1% 2,117 370 0.4%

99 Unclassified 366 $42,082 1.06 366 n/a 2.5% 13.2% 96 61 1.6%

Total - All Industries 170,655 $47,753 1.00 18,243 2.3% 1.3% 1.7% 44,556 28,239 1.5%

Source: JobsEQ® Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4

with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 9: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

9

Occupation Snapshot

The largest major occupation group in the Prince William/Manassas is Sales and Related Occupations, employing

21,158 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Office and Administrative Support Occupations

(20,333 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (16,622). High location quotients (LQs)

indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national

average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Construction and Extraction Occupations (LQ =

1.90), Education, Training, and Library Occupations (1.43), and Computer and Mathematical Occupations (1.23).

Occupation groups in the Prince William/Manassas with the highest average wages per worker are Management

Occupations ($122,700), Legal Occupations ($113,900), and Computer and Mathematical Occupations ($90,600).

The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 0.8% among Legal Occupations to 6.5%

among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations.

Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Prince William/Manassas is expected to be

Healthcare Support Occupations with a +3.3% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of

jobs over this period is expected for Sales and Related Occupations (+3,102 jobs) and Construction and Extraction

Occupations (+3,075). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to

retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Sales and Related Occupations

(7,684 jobs) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (6,739).

Occupation Snapshot in Prince William/Manassas

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending

with 2017q2 2017q2

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Avg Ann % Chg in Empl

2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years

SOC Title Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages1

LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Empl

Prince

William/

Manassa

s

District

of

Columbi

a

USA

Current

Online

Job Ads2

Total

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

11-0000

Management Occupations 10,732 $122,700 1.04 222 1.4% 849 1.7% 1.1% 1.5% 485 3,667 1,769 1.5%

13-0000

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

8,528 $78,100 0.97 495 2.8% 816 2.0% 0.7% 1.7% 362 1,911 1,497 1.6%

15-0000

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

6,117 $90,600 1.23 316 2.3% 12 0.0% 1.3% 2.5% 1,039 988 1,371 2.0%

17-0000

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

2,351 $85,400 0.81 108 2.5% -357 -2.8% -0.2% 1.0% 179 620 251 1.0%

19-0000

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

1,219 $79,900 0.85 77 3.0% 6 0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 74 366 186 1.4%

21-0000

Community and Social Service Occupations 2,503 $51,400 0.92 32 1.0% 193 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% 133 590 497 1.8%

23-0000 Legal Occupations 1,502 $113,900 1.06 23 0.8% 107 1.5% -0.7% 0.4% 14 309 173 1.1%

25-0000

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

13,800 $56,000 1.43 338 2.2% 618 0.9% 2.7% 0.8% 356 3,199 2,238 1.5%

27- Arts, Design, 2,772 $52,600 0.91 144 3.1% 149 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 125 988 357 1.2%

Page 10: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

10

Occupation Snapshot in Prince William/Manassas

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending

with 2017q2 2017q2

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Avg Ann % Chg in Empl

2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years

SOC Title Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages1

LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Empl

Prince

William/

Manassa

s

District

of

Columbi

a

USA

Current

Online

Job Ads2

Total

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

0000 Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

29-0000

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

7,014 $79,200 0.72 121 1.2% 1,084 3.4% 0.5% 1.7% 453 1,728 1,908 2.4%

31-0000

Healthcare Support Occupations 3,632 $31,000 0.75 214 3.7% 794 5.1% 1.7% 2.2% 159 885 1,401 3.3%

33-0000

Protective Service Occupations 3,464 $47,100 0.94 201 3.2% 856 5.8% 1.2% 1.0% 195 788 465 1.3%

35-0000

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

16,622 $23,900 1.13 1,577 6.5% 3,014 4.1% 3.6% 2.9% 785 6,739 2,372 1.3%

37-0000

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

6,999 $27,400 1.16 509 4.6% 921 2.9% 0.6% 1.0% 219 1,665 1,027 1.4%

39-0000

Personal Care and Service Occupations 7,524 $27,900 1.13 382 3.8% 1,055 3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 363 2,350 1,703 2.1%

41-0000

Sales and Related Occupations 21,158 $35,300 1.21 1,130 4.3% 1,809 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1,909 7,684 3,102 1.4%

43-0000

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

20,333 $38,000 0.80 1,260 3.5% 1,989 2.1% 1.1% 1.7% 865 4,696 2,337 1.1%

45-0000

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 161 $32,700 0.14 18 5.0% 24 3.3% 1.1% 1.3% 3 68 10 0.6%

47-0000

Construction and Extraction Occupations 14,451 $44,300 1.90 853 5.6% 2,304 3.5% 2.5% 2.4% 188 2,835 3,075 1.9%

49-0000

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

6,621 $48,300 1.02 334 3.5% 523 1.7% 0.9% 1.6% 421 1,792 1,053 1.5%

51-0000

Production Occupations 4,019 $37,800 0.39 274 4.5% 227 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 138 1,082 255 0.6%

53-0000

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

9,134 $34,400 0.80 655 5.0% 1,250 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 465 2,438 1,190 1.2%

00-0000 Total - All Occupations 170,655 $48,600 1.00 n/a n/a 18,243 2.3% 1.3% 1.7% 8,960 47,387 28,239 1.5%

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2017Q2 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of

postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of

Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Wages by

occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional

growth patterns.

Page 11: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

11

Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Prince

William/Manassas with the highest relative concentration is Construction with a location quotient of 2.15. This cluster

employs 20,717 workers in the region with an average wage of $55,307. Employment in the Construction cluster is

projected to expand in the region about 2.0% per year over the next ten years.

Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated

through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Education Levels

Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the

Prince William/Manassas is projected to grow 1.5% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a

postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.9% per year, those requiring a bachelor’s degree are forecast to grow

1.6% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.8% per year.

Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the

Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 12: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

12

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP

in the Prince William/Manassas expanded 4.3%. This follows growth of 3.9% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in the

Prince William/Manassas was $17,933,255,000.

Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016.

Of the sectors in the Prince William/Manassas, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing contributed the largest portion of

GDP in 2016, $2,483,844,000 The next-largest contributions came from Construction ($2,057,440,000); Educational

Services ($1,945,247,000); and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services ($1,898,853,000).

Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016.

Page 13: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

13

Region Definition Prince William/Manassas is defined as the following counties: Prince William County, Virginia; Manassas City,

Virginia; Manassas Park City, Virginia

Page 14: Economic Overview Prince William/Manassas · In 2016, the population in the Prince William/Manassas was 512,608. Between 2006 and 2016, the region’s population grew at an annual

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

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FAQ What is a location quotient?

A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has

the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the

expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment

in comparison to the nation.

What is replacement demand?

Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements—retirements and turnover resulting from workers

moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover—it does not include

when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be

understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the

occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and

the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of

the overall number of jobs in that occupation).

What is a cluster?

A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient

of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster.

What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages?

Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not

align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry

wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average

occupation wages in a region do not match exactly.

What is NAICS?

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the

type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the “all industry” level to the 6-digit level. The first two

digits define the top level category, known as the “sector,” which is the level examined in this report.

What is SOC?

The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers

are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification,

occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group

includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience.

About This Report

This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ®, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.

However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.