economic reforms and trends

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Economic Reforms & Trends In National Income Presented By Prof M.M.Joshi

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Page 1: Economic reforms and trends

Economic Reforms & Trends In National Income

Presented By Prof M.M.Joshi

Page 2: Economic reforms and trends

Reforms… Reforming……? ?Reforms

Poor India

Page 3: Economic reforms and trends

Economic Reforms & Trends in National Income

A challenge or an opportunity ?

Page 4: Economic reforms and trends

IMPORTANCE

Economic reforms have had a deep impact on income propagation on the Indian Economy.The study is relevant in studying the changes in income in various sectors of the Indian Economy. The scenario of the Indian Economy changed after the new economic reforms were implemented in this country in the year 1991. This study tries to analyzethe pre reform and post reform impact on the Indian Economy.

Page 5: Economic reforms and trends

OBJECTIVES

• To analyze pre and post reforms impact on the growth of GDP at factor cost .

• To analyze intersectoral growth rate .

Page 6: Economic reforms and trends

Review of the literature

* Mahesh Joshi (2003) states that economic reforms shall be a failure if agriculture and rural development is neglected.* V.D. Vidyarthi and Asha Rani (2003) correlate economic reforms with greater productivity in agriculture .

Page 7: Economic reforms and trends

HYPOTHESES• GDP, NNP & Per Capita NNP did not

register a modest growth rate in the Post Reforms period.

• Agriculture sector has a low growth rate in the post reform period.

• Industrial sector has registered a low growth rate in the post reforms period.

• Service sector has not grown in the post reform period.

Page 8: Economic reforms and trends

METHODOLOGY• Basic econometric models like linear growth

models,elasticity have been used .

• Secondary data from various sources like CSO,RBI Bulletin has been used for empirical calculations.

Page 9: Economic reforms and trends

Empirical FindingsComparison between Pre & Post reforms change in GDP

Period LGR%

Intercept b-coeff, Elasticity T-Test

1980-91

91-2004

5.41

5.85

356469.8

610895

28519.14

60393.41

0.32

0.41

18.55

36.78

Source -Empirical findings

Page 10: Economic reforms and trends

A comparison between pre & post reform change in GDP originating in Agri. sector

Period LGR% Y-intercept b-coeff. Elasticity T-test

1980-91

1991-04

3.1

2.6

152778

213634

5820.7

7098.6

0.19

0.18

8.1693

11.95

Source : empirical findings

Page 11: Economic reforms and trends

A comparison between Pre & Post reforms changes in GDP originating in Industrial

Sector

PeriodLGR% Y- intercept B - coeff. Elasticity

1980-91

1991-04

7.35

5.88

58757

132744.7

77329

13272.28

0.44

0.41

Source: empirical findings

Page 12: Economic reforms and trends

A comparison of Service sector output coefficient in pre & post reforms

PeriodLGR%

Y-intercept b-coeff. Elasticity T-test

1980-91

1991-04

6.35

7.4

145008.1

257410

14892.53

39473.07

0.38

0.51

20.21186

27.63324

Source: empirical findings

Page 13: Economic reforms and trends

CONCLUSIONS* Agriculture has recorded a low growth of output during reforms periods.

* Verifications also support the case of fall in industrial output, and a rise in output in service sector .

* The claim that NNP & per capita NNP has grown during the reforms period stands accepted .

Hence the euphoria of economic reforms appears to be elusive barring a few exceptions.

Page 14: Economic reforms and trends

THANK YOU