economic reforms and trends
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Reforms & Trends In National Income
Presented By Prof M.M.Joshi
Reforms… Reforming……? ?Reforms
Poor India
Economic Reforms & Trends in National Income
A challenge or an opportunity ?
IMPORTANCE
Economic reforms have had a deep impact on income propagation on the Indian Economy.The study is relevant in studying the changes in income in various sectors of the Indian Economy. The scenario of the Indian Economy changed after the new economic reforms were implemented in this country in the year 1991. This study tries to analyzethe pre reform and post reform impact on the Indian Economy.
OBJECTIVES
• To analyze pre and post reforms impact on the growth of GDP at factor cost .
• To analyze intersectoral growth rate .
Review of the literature
* Mahesh Joshi (2003) states that economic reforms shall be a failure if agriculture and rural development is neglected.* V.D. Vidyarthi and Asha Rani (2003) correlate economic reforms with greater productivity in agriculture .
HYPOTHESES• GDP, NNP & Per Capita NNP did not
register a modest growth rate in the Post Reforms period.
• Agriculture sector has a low growth rate in the post reform period.
• Industrial sector has registered a low growth rate in the post reforms period.
• Service sector has not grown in the post reform period.
METHODOLOGY• Basic econometric models like linear growth
models,elasticity have been used .
• Secondary data from various sources like CSO,RBI Bulletin has been used for empirical calculations.
Empirical FindingsComparison between Pre & Post reforms change in GDP
Period LGR%
Intercept b-coeff, Elasticity T-Test
1980-91
91-2004
5.41
5.85
356469.8
610895
28519.14
60393.41
0.32
0.41
18.55
36.78
Source -Empirical findings
A comparison between pre & post reform change in GDP originating in Agri. sector
Period LGR% Y-intercept b-coeff. Elasticity T-test
1980-91
1991-04
3.1
2.6
152778
213634
5820.7
7098.6
0.19
0.18
8.1693
11.95
Source : empirical findings
A comparison between Pre & Post reforms changes in GDP originating in Industrial
Sector
PeriodLGR% Y- intercept B - coeff. Elasticity
1980-91
1991-04
7.35
5.88
58757
132744.7
77329
13272.28
0.44
0.41
Source: empirical findings
A comparison of Service sector output coefficient in pre & post reforms
PeriodLGR%
Y-intercept b-coeff. Elasticity T-test
1980-91
1991-04
6.35
7.4
145008.1
257410
14892.53
39473.07
0.38
0.51
20.21186
27.63324
Source: empirical findings
CONCLUSIONS* Agriculture has recorded a low growth of output during reforms periods.
* Verifications also support the case of fall in industrial output, and a rise in output in service sector .
* The claim that NNP & per capita NNP has grown during the reforms period stands accepted .
Hence the euphoria of economic reforms appears to be elusive barring a few exceptions.
THANK YOU