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Economic Research

APAC Economic Snapshots: The Cyclical Tide is Receding November 2018

APAC Economic Snapshots

spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 2

The Cyclical Tide Is Receding

Chart 1: Asia-Pacific Manufacturing Trade Cycle Chart 2: Asia Pacific Real GDP Growth

Sources: CEIC and S&P Global Economics. Manufacturing exports in U.S. dollar value terms. Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Cycle is extracted from an asymmetric band-pass filter with frequencies set between 3 and 12 years.

Sources: CEIC, IMF WEO, and S&P Global Economics. Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. ASEAN-6 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Aggregates weighted by current price PPP GDP in U.S. dollars.

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

(%, y/y

)

Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific ex-China, India, and Japan ASEAN 6



In Focus: External Pressures And Domestic Policy Space

Chart 3: Change In Real Policy Rate (end April to end Oct 2018)

In the Philippines, the pass-through to inflation from oil prices and FX depreciation was immediate. Indonesia held key prices down administratively, but will likely need to raise prices after elections

next year. India’s fuel as well as core inflation have been rising, but it has had the fortune of a better-than-expected food supply to hold headline inflation down. Nonetheless, inflation expectations in the latter two seem to be rising, justifying a tightening bias from the central banks.

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Thailand Korea India Philippines Indonesia



(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18

(%, sa 3

mm

av

g)

Total Retail Food Household goods Cafes

Australia

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

Retail Sales Growth Eased In September

Source: CEIC.

Real Wage Growth Edges Slightly Higher In Q3

Source: CEIC.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q3.18Q4.17Q1.17Q2.16Q3.15Q4.14

Wage Price Index: excl Bonuses: (sa,y/y) Consumer Price Index: (sa,y/y)



Australia Economic Data And Forecast Summary

Selected Economic Indicators

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18

12.6 13.5 16.0 9.4 15.3 10.7 9.9 4.4

13.3 (0.6) 1.1 16.7 24.5 6.5 (4.9) (4.4)

12.6 20.7 18.0 0.7 9.4 (20.8) (5.7) (12.8)

481.3 696.9 2,082 1,579 3,170 3,088 2,294 3,014

5.7 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9

1.6 2.3 1.2 3.3 2.6 2.6 4.2 2.8

5.4 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.0

Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments

2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

3.2 3.4

3.1 3.0

3.8 3.5

(13.2) (4.6) (4.3) (7.3) (11.9) (12.9) (8.2) (9.0)

1.3 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9

4.7 4.5

S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

2.2 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8

2.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

5.7 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2

2.74 2.50 2.11 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.66 1.97 2.22

2.50 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25

0.97 0.90 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.75

0.93 0.85 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.73 0.74 0.75



China

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

Financial Conditions Remained Neutral In October

Sources: CEIC; S&P Global Economics.

Real Estate Is Showing Signs of Cooling

Source: CEIC.

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18

(Po

sit

ive=

Lo

oser)

z-score

(20.0)

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18

(%, y/

y 3m

ma)

Housing Starts Housing Transact ions



China Economic Data And Forecast Summary



1.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5

2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8

6.2 9.7 11.1 11.4 10.2 11.3 9.0 14.4 15.0

16.8 37.1 20.9 25.1 13.8 27.7 20.4 14.9 21.5

38.2 20.3 28.4 24.9 41.5 28.0 27.9 31.7 34.0

6.2 7.0 6.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.9

10.0 9.4 8.5 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.6

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

6.8 6.7 6.5

3.2 3.2 3.4

6.3 6.1 5.8

7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.5 7.6 7.7

75.4 14.7 15.7 52.6 34.3 62.3 (34.1) 5.3 16.0

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0

2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5

4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0

6.00 5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35

6.00 5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35

6.1 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.6

6.1 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6

Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.



Hong Kong

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Moderated In Q3, Lowest In Two Years

Source: CEIC.

Property Prices Declined For First Time In 29 Months

Source: CEIC.

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15

(Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o %

, y/

y G

DP

g

row

th)

PCE GCEGFCF Changes in InventoriesNet Exports GDP Growth

(2)

0

2

4

6

(60)

0

60

120

180


(%, m

/m)

(%, y/

y)

Property Sales Transaction: Number: Domestic

Property Price Index: 1999=100: Domestic Premise (RHS)



Hong Kong Economic Data And Forecast Summary



Source: CEIC.

Real GDP components, fiscal position, and balance of payments

2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

3.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.8

4.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4

3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1

7.76 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.84 7.82 7.78

7.75 7.76 7.75 7.76 7.81 7.85 7.81 7.76




India

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

New Orders Boost Business Sentiment In October

Source: Bloomberg.

Headline Inflation Eased Further In October

Source: CEIC.

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

(PM

I L

ev

els

)

Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Nikkei Services PMI

5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

(6.0)

(3.0)

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0


(%, p

.a.)

(%, y/

y)

Headline CPI CPI: Food

CPI: Fuel and Light Repo Rate (RHS)



India Economic Data And Forecast Summary



3.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.3

3.7 3.0 3.6 4.8 5.7 5.3 4.6 5.1 5.3

(2.0) 13.6 4.3 20.9 18.7 16.4 19.5 (2.3) 17.9

8.7 26.2 2.0 14.6 20.9 28.0 25.6 10.5 17.6

(14.6) (15.3) (14.0) (14.9) (17.5) (17.9) (17.4) (14.0) (17.1)

1.8 7.5 4.5 3.8 7.0 6.5 4.7 4.5

2.0 8.7 4.9 3.6 6.9 7.0 5.1 4.6

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2

7.0 7.7 8.2

5.9 6.7 8.6

6.8 16.9 7.6

15.9 10.5 8.7 6.0 0.8 6.1 9.1 14.4 10.0

(382.5) (3,450) (7,964) (2,554) (14,966) (6,944) (13,704) (13,047) (15,807)

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values. Data for all years is for fiscal years. For instance, 2016 means April 2016-March 2017.



Indonesia

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Edged Lower In Q3

Source: CEIC.

Current Account Deficit Broadened In Q3

Source: CEIC.

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15

(Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o %

y/y

G

DP

gro

wth

)

PCE GCE GFCF

Change in Stocks Net Exports GDP

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15

(US

$ b

n)

CA: Non-Oil&Gas CA: OilCA: Gas CA: OthersCurrent Account Balance



Indonesia Economic Data And Forecast Summary



3.6 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.2

3.1 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9

19.6 8.6 9.6 13.1 11.3 19.7 4.5 2.4 3.7

40.2 4.1 17.8 27.0 31.7 22.9 16.3 (11.6) 0.1

23.8 27.9 35.2 28.2 12.8 31.7 24.5 14.2 23.7

1,001 (756.0) (1,625) (1,454) 1,707 (2,007) (944.2) 314.0 (1,820)

6.4 8.5 6.5 1.9 (9.8) 1.3 1.4 1.5

2.2 (1.8) 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 3.9

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

5.1 5.3 5.2

4.9 5.1 5.0

7.9 5.9 7.0

(5.0) (1.8) (2.2) (4.6) (4.6) (5.9) (5.6) (8.0) (8.8)

2,283 3,120 4,088 3,550 3,192 996.5 314.4 (1,372) (2,637)

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6

6.4 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.5

5.9 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.8

5.2 6.3 6.3 5.3 4.6 5.0 5.8 4.9 4.5

6.1 6.4 6.3 4.8 4.3 5.8 5.8 4.5 4.5

10,420 11,850 13,394 13,304 13,379 13,793 13,693 13,536

11,552 12,252 13,769 13,259 13,534 13,786 13,649 13,445




Japan

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Fell In Q3 Due To Disruptions

Source: CEIC.

Natural Disasters Also Affected Other Indicators

Source: CEIC.

(1)

0

1

2

Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15

(Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns t

o q

/q S

A G

DP

gro

wth

)

PCE Private Res.Inv. Priv. non-RI

GCE Govt. Inv. Priv. Stk

Pub.Stk Net Exports GDP q/q sa

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8


(%, y/

y)

Industrial Output Retail Sales



Japan Economic Data And Forecast Summary



0.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.2

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0

4.9 16.3 10.2 10.6 7.6 4.7 5.5 (2.5) 8.4

15.9 35.5 13.4 16.6 11.9 12.8 10.9 (2.8) 9.2

9.5 11.7 8.4 16.7 3.4 15.6 14.3 5.7 20.1

5.9 3.2 7.5 5.8 (5.3) 6.5 (2.1) (4.0) 1.2

5.7 2.9 2.6 4.2 (0.9) 2.2 0.2 (2.9)

(0.3) 1.5 1.5 0.6 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.3

19.4 5.3 17.6 17.2 10.9 18.0 16.6 16.3

0.0 2.0 (1.3) (1.4) (1.2) 0.4 2.8 (0.5)

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

(1.1) 3.0 (1.2)

(0.9) 2.6 (0.5)

0.1 0.8 0.7

0.9 2.7 1.9 5.7 1.0 (0.6) 0.5 7.2 (1.9)

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

2.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 1.4

0.3 2.8 0.8 (0.1) 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.9

4.0 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6

0.08 0.07 0.07 (0.03) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)

0.07 0.06 0.08 (0.04) (0.04) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)

97.6 105.9 121.0 108.8 112.1 109.7 110.6 111.7

100.4 114.6 121.4 109.5 112.9 110.5 110.7 112.1




(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

(Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns t

o %

, y/

y G

DP

g

row

th)

PCE GCE GFCF


(3)

(2)

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40


(US

D b

illio

n)

(%, y/

y)

Trade Balance Exports (LHS) Imports (LHS)

Malaysia

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Eased To A Seven Quarter Low In Q3

Source: CEIC.

Trade Surplus Rose As Import Growth Slowed

Source: CEIC.



Malaysia Economic Data And Forecast Summary


Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

4.2 3.5 1.3 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.3

11.4 14.6 15.9 28.6 13.0 15.5 15.9 4.4 8.5

11.0 17.7 2.1 18.2 31.9 16.6 1.7 6.7 14.1

12.4 18.0 2.7 23.8 10.6 24.0 16.8 16.4 (1.0)

1,951 1,806 3,765 3,351 2,050 1,501 2,057 394.2 3,688

4.8 2.9 3.1 4.6 3.0 1.1 2.6 2.2 2.3

2.4 (4.1) 0.0 1.8 (0.5) (9.4) (5.9) (4.6) (6.2)

3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

5.4 4.5 4.4

6.9 8.0 9.0

0.1 2.2 3.2

1,898 2,967 1,077 2,025 3,005 3,347 3,820 990.4 924.6

9.0 9.1 10.1 13.5 12.2 10.4 9.2 9.8 12.9

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

4.7 6.0 5.1 4.2 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7

2.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.2

3.1 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

3.0 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.8

3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.8

3.2 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0

3.2 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0




Philippines

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Eased In Q3, Slowest In Three Years

Source: CEIC.

Headline Inflation Remained At 6.7% y/y In October

Source: CEIC.

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0


(%, y/

y)

CPI Food Housing Transport

(8)

(5)

(2)

1

4

7

10

13

Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15(C

on

trib

utio

ns t

o %

y/y

G

DP

g

ro

wth

)

PCE GCE GFCF




Philippines Economic Data And Forecast Summary



3.1 3.4 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.7 6.7

3.2 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.4

17.4 (4.0) (4.9) (1.8) 2.8 0.3 3.4 (2.6)

28.6 2.4 5.5 4.9 14.0 6.1 8.9 4.2

17.0 7.7 23.1 12.6 24.2 31.6 11.0 26.1

(2.6) (3.2) (3.5) (3.7) (3.2) (3.5) (3.5) (3.9)

2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2

(6.0) 10.9 22.6 15.3 12.0 12.1 8.6 3.7

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

6.6 6.2 6.1

5.7 5.9 5.2

12.4 21.5 16.7

(90.6) (565.6) (289.4) 156.8 1100.4 (3130.4) (155.4) (2931.3)

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.7

2.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.1 3.8 3.5 3.4

7.1 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.1

3.5 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.5

3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

42.4 44.4 45.5 47.5 50.4 52.8 53.5 53.1

43.6 44.8 46.9 49.1 50.9 53.7 53.4 52.7




Singapore

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

MAS Tightened Monetary Policy Again In October

Source: CEIC.

Faster NODX In October Led By Non-Electronics

Source: CEIC.

110

111

112

113

114

(1)

0

1

2

3


(2010=

100)

(%, y/

y)

CPI inflation MAS Core Inflation NEER (RHS)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45


NODX (%, y/y) NODX (3m/3m saar)



Singapore Economic Data And Forecast Summary



0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8

12.4 18.0 16.9 14.6 10.8 14.0 12.8 9.6 18.7

22.8 22.0 18.8 20.3 3.5 11.6 4.4 6.4 6.7

18.1 13.2 18.1 14.1 15.7 22.6 12.5 14.1 18.1

3.2 4.3 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.4 4.9 3.2 4.0

15.3 18.3 11.0 13.0 8.4 7.3 3.7 (0.2)

0.2 (7.7) 1.0 0.2 1.9 (2.6) (0.4) 1.9


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

4.5 3.9 2.6

3.4 3.2

8.7 2.2

(3.1) (4.1) (3.2) (3.5) (2.7) 2.2 (0.9) 3.3

18.1 13.1 14.9 14.6 18.4 13.1 16.0 17.1

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

5.1 3.9 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.7

2.4 1.0 (0.5) (0.5) 0.6 0.6 1.6 1.9 2.0

1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9

1.25 1.27 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.33

1.25 1.29 1.41 1.41 1.35 1.37 1.34 1.33




South Korea

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Remained Steady In Q3

Source: CEIC.

Unemployment Rate Eased Further In October

Source: CEIC.

(3)

(2)

(1)

0

1

2

3

Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15(C

on

trib

utio

n t

o S

A q

/q G

DP

g

ro

wth

)

PCE GCE GFCF

Changes in Inventories Net Exports GDP

(180)

(90)

0

90

180

270

360

(3.0)

(1.5)

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0


(Th

ou

san

d P

ers

on

s)

(%)

Change in Employment (RHS) Unemployment Rate (LHS)



South Korea Economic Data And Forecast Summary



1.8 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0

1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1

6.7 22.3 (1.9) 12.8 (0.3) 6.1 8.7 (8.2) 22.7

47.2 40.5 23.9 26.8 23.2 24.2 24.1 14.8 15.4

8.0 21.6 14.9 13.0 11.0 16.4 9.4 (1.6) 28.1

6.9 3.5 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.9 6.8 9.6 6.5

(3.0) 4.2 1.9 1.7 0.2 1.4 1.6 (4.8)

1.0 2.0 6.7 5.9 5.5 7.1 7.9 2.9

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

2.8 2.8 2.0

3.5 2.8 2.6

3.7 (1.3) (6.5)

22.6 22.7 19.2 16.5 25.6 17.2 11.8 17.8 28.0

19.4 21.8 15.6 29.2 30.2 20.1 12.7 18.6 23.3

6.3 6.4

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5

1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9

3.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4

2.6 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0

1095.0 1052.8 1131.0 1160.8 1131.0 1097.4 1112.4 1106.3

1062.1 1086.6 1157.5 1156.4 1107.5 1118.0 1109.1 1104.7




Taiwan

State of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Slowed To Five-Quarter Low in Q3

Source: CEIC.

Trade Balance Narrowed; Trade Flows Up

Source: CEIC.

(4)

0

4

8

12

16

Q3'18Q2'18

(%, y/

y)

GDP PCE GCE GFCF Exports Imports

(3)

0

3

6

9

(15)

0

15

30

45


(US

D b

illio

n)

(%, y/

y)

Trade Balance (RHS) Exports Imports



Taiwan Economic Data And Forecast Summary



(0.3) 0.9 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.2

1.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.7

3.0 15.3 10.0 14.2 9.4 4.7 1.9 2.6 7.3

7.1 12.4 7.5 14.0 2.3 4.9 1.1 (0.4) 2.8

(0.1) 22.0 4.9 12.0 15.4 20.3 7.8 13.9 17.6

5.3 2.7 4.2 4.4 5.2 2.3 4.5 4.3 3.4

2.7 9.4 8.8 7.6 0.5 4.7 1.1 1.5

4.9 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 4.8 4.6 4.9

3.2 (4.2) 3.6 5.3 4.9 3.6 0.6 2.8

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

3.1 3.3 2.3

2.8 2.6

0.5 0.1

16.6 19.6 18.2 17.3 21.7 25.6 19.4 17.8

12.0 13.6 10.8 12.1 17.8 17.3 11.8 13.8 11.1

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

2.2 4.0 0.8 1.4 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.5

0.8 1.2 (0.3) 1.4 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1

4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1

1.875 1.875 1.837 1.466 1.375 1.406 1.594 1.625 1.625

1.875 1.875 1.731 1.375 1.375 1.500 1.625 1.625 1.625

29.8 30.4 31.9 32.3 30.4 30.1 30.4 30.2

29.6 30.9 32.8 31.8 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.0




Thailand

State Of Play

Outlook

Risks

GDP Growth Led By Domestic Demand In Q3

Source: CEIC.

Visitor Arrivals Remain Weak; Retail Sales Up

Source: CEIC.

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15

(%, y/

y)

(Co

nti

bu

tio

n t

o G

DP

y/y

G

row

th)

PCE GCE

GFCF Change in Inventories

Net Exports GDP (RHS)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

(% y

/y)

Visitor Arrivals: Excluding Overseas Thai Retail Sales



Thailand Economic Data And Forecast Summary



0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7

12.7 17.6 12.4 11.4 8.2 8.3 6.7 (5.2)

9.3 12.3 14.9 (0.1) 4.6 (2.3) 5.6 0.1

13.2 24.5 21.3 11.7 10.8 10.5 22.8 9.9

44.2 52.7 69.8 25.0 59.7 64.4 37.9 50.5

204.0 (119.2) (1,283) 1,204 1,578 (516.0) (588.1) 487.2

1.0 4.7 3.1 2.9 5.0 4.9 0.8 (2.6)

5.8 9.9 7.6 6.1 7.1 15.5 17.7

76.7 80.0 80.9 80.1 81.3 82.2 83.2 82.3 81.3

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

4.9 4.6 3.3

3.7 4.5 5.0

1.9 2.0 2.1

1.0 2.1 1.7 0.3 1.2 0.3 3.4 3.7 3.9

11.7 10.7 15.2 7.8 14.9 12.4 15.1 6.7 4.2

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

2.7 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9

2.2 1.9 (0.9) 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.4

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3

2.58 2.05 1.63 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.59 1.84 2.09

2.41 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25

30.7 32.5 34.2 35.3 33.9 32.1 32.3 31.9

31.7 32.7 35.8 35.4 32.9 32.0 32.1 31.7




Vietnam

State of Play

Outlook

Risks

Retail Sales Growth Steady; IP Growth Eased

Source: CEIC.

Trade Surplus Narrowed; Export growth modest

Source: CEIC.

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25


(% y

/y)

Retail Sales Industrial Production

(3.0)

(1.5)

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

(US

D b

illio

n)

(% y

/y)

Trade Balance (RHS) Exports

Phones & Spare Parts Imports

Computer & Electronic Parts



Vietnam Economic Data And Forecast Summary



3.0 2.7 2.8 3.9 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.9

1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

32.3 40.2 4.5 11.3 11.3 14.8 18.5 9.5 10.8

26.8 48.3 9.2 23.2 18.5 19.6 19.1 9.6 11.9

14.9 52.1 (1.1) 12.1 4.9 20.2 16.4 6.4 19.4

2112.2 180.8 1,163 (814.7) 799.2 (634.6) 2197 1,612 769.6

17.0 20.2 6.3 10.1 12.3 14.3 11.3 9.1 7.7

19.4 14.0 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.4

10.7 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4

Source: CEIC.


2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3

7.4 7.1 7.0

3,934 1,244

2,732 1,147 3,175

Source: CEIC.


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

Source: S&P Global Ratings.



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