2nd Quarter GDP: 1.3% (Advanced Estimate)

2nd Quarter GDP: 1.3% (Advanced Estimate)

Videos & GDP

Source: CNBC, Economic Times, the Economist, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Video & Economic SummaryVideo & Economic Summary

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Revisions in GDP Data

Hire Expectations ( 3 min 24 sec)Matt Ferguson, CareerBuilder CEO (CNBC, Prior to the job numbers, Aug 4, 2011)

Where is the Economy Headed? (4 min 43 Sec)CNBC

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“A shock downward revision to US first-quarter economic growth that fanned fears of a new recession reflected a new data-crunching method more than a big shift in the underlying data.

The Commerce Department government last Friday slashed its measure of gross domestic product growth for the first three months of 2011 by 1.5 percentage points to a mere 0.4 per cent annual rate.

One major factor was a revision to inventories. Inventories subtracted much less from fourth quarter growth than had previously been thought, and so ended up adding less to growth during the first three months of the year.” - Economic Times

“A new trove of GDP data reveals America’s recession to be much deeper than previously understood, and the recovery much more tenuous.

America’s economy shambled forward at a 1.3% annual pace in the three months to June, according to a preliminary estimate of growth. But that wretched statistic passed for good news compared with the rest of the report. Activity quickened from a miserable first quarter in which the economy flirted with a return to recession, growing by only 0.4% at an annual rate. For the year to June, the second full year of the recovery, it grew by just 1.6%. Over the same period after the 1982 recession, the economy leapt forward by 5.6%.” - The Economist

Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment

June 2009 Recession Officially EndedJuly 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns PositiveOct 2009 1st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey)Nov 2009 1st Job Growth (Payroll Survey)

Temp EmploymentTemporary help services gained 300 jobs.

Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association

US Employment Situation

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.70% -.01%

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.70% -.01%

Job Loss/Gain: + 117,000 Jobs Job Loss/Gain: + 117,000 Jobs

Unemployment Rate: 9.1% -0.1% Unemployment Rate: 9.1% -0.1%

I

Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher

March April May June July4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/LostPrivate Sector 154,000Government Sector -37,000Total 117,000

Job Loses

Change from Previous Month

Government -37,000Financial Activities -4,000

Job Gains

Change from Previous Month

Professional & Business Services 34,000Retail Trade 25,900Manufacturing 24,000Leisure & Hospitality 17,000Construction 8,000Education & Health Services 38,000 - Education 1,600 - Healthcare 31,300 - Social Assistance 5,400

Labor Market Notches Slight Gains(Wall Street Journal)

Labor Market Notches Slight Gains(Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Projections & Sector Comparison

Source: Wall Street Journal, New York TimesPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)