economic/market update – december 2012 daryl montgomery december11, 2012 copyright 2012, all...
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Economic/Market Update – December 2012
Daryl MontgomeryDecember11, 2012
Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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This is the 5 Year Anniversary of the Beginning of the Recession
in 2007
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News in June 2010 from the UK
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News in Dec 2012 from the UK
“UK on triple-dip recession alert after industrial slowdown”
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The View from the U.S.
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How’s the Recovery Going?
• ECRI says U.S. recession began in July.
• EU officially entered recession in Nov.
• BOE says UK could be facing triple-dip recession.
• Japan sinks into yet another recession (announced yesterday). GDP down 3.5% in Q3.
• All these countries have 0% or close to 0% interest rates and have been printing money.
• China GDP at 7.4% (slows for 7th Quarter). India GDP growth lowest in 10 years.
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U.S. Employment in the 2000s
The U.S. needed to create almost 9 million extra jobs since recession began, not even back to number at starting point. We are 12.5 million short.
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Falling Labor Force Participation Rate
Right of green line is after recession began.
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Food Stamp Use Hits Another Record
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Central Bank Policies
• U.S. and Japan at 0% interest rates. Fed has said it would keep rates at 0% until 2015.
• UK at 0.50% and EU at 0.75%.
• All 4 engaging in some for of QE (Quantitative Easing), a form of money printing.
• U.S. QE3 has no time limit, no $ limit, no security type limit.
• Operation Twist may be ending.
• No more bullets in case of crisis.
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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Where’s the QE3?
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U.S. Monetary Base – Measure of Future Inflation
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M2 Money Supply
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Inflation Expectations
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European Debt Crisis• Greece gets another bailout. “We have settled
the Greece question”- Holland
• France is downgraded by Moody’s
• Monti resigns in Italy, Juncker resigns again.
• Spanish banks loaded up on gov’t debt. Spain has still not asked for bailout.
• Credit Suisse announces negative interest rates on interbank deposits.
• EU awarded Nobel Peace Prize!
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How to Know if There’s a Depression
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Background Material for Charts
• Moving Averages – 50-day, 200-day, 325-day or 10-week, 40-week, 65 week
• RSI – relative strength index, 80-overbought, 20 oversold, 50 divides bearish and bullish
• MACD – moving average convergence divergence, zero divide bullish bearish, peak and bottom numbers variable
• DMI – Directional Movement Index, +DI (blue), -DI (red) and trend line (black).
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Follow us on Twitter
@nyinvesting
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Major US Indices:
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Dow Jones Industrials 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Dow Jones 5-Years Weekly Volume
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Dow Jones Transports 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Nasdaq 3-Years Weekly
10, 40,65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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S&P 500 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Average and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Russell 2000 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Precious Metals
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GOLD ETF: GLD 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Silver ETF SLV 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Mining ETF GDX 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Mining ETF GDXJ 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Other Commodities
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WTI Crude Oil One-Year Daily
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Uranium CA:U 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Solar ETF TAN 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Agriculture ETF RJA 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Copper ETF JJC 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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Emerging Markets
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Brazil Bovespa 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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India Sensex 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Shanghai Composite 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Russia RTS 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Bonds and Currencies
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30-Year Treasury Yield 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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10-Year Treasury Yield 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
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U.S. $ DXY 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Euro FXE 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Euro FXF 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Euro FXA 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
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Euro FXC 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD