Economics 11/7/11http://mrmilewski.com

• NO SCHOOL: Professional Development Day.

Happy Eid al Adha to all the people.

Economics 11/8/11http://mrmilewski.com

• NO SCHOOL: Professional Development Day.

• Election Day

Economics 11/9/11 http://mrmilewski.com

• OBJECTIVE: Demonstration of Chapter#12 and begin examination of the business cycle. MCSS E-2.1.5

• I. Administrative Stuff-attendance & distribution of test

• II. Chapter#12 Test• III. Journal #34 pt.A

-Examine the cartoon p.343-Answer the caption question p.343-Examine Figure 13.2-Answer the caption question p.345

• IV. Journal #34 pt.B-notes on the business cycle

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2011/11/07/welcome_to_the_reckoning_a_blog_about_american_power_.html

This week

• Chapter#13 section#1

• Chapter#14 section#1

• Chapter#14 section#3

• Chapter#13&14 Test is Tuesday!

The Business Cycle• Business cycle - the rise and fall of GDP over

time.• GDP – Gross Domestic Product• GDP= C+I+G+(X-M)• C – consumer• I – business• G – government• X – exports• M - imports

Phases of the Business Cycle

• Ch#14 sec#1 p.376

The Recession Phase of the Business Cycle

• There are two phases of the business cycle• Recession – when real GDP declines for two

quarters in a row (6 months)• A recession begins following a peak• Peak – the point where GDP stops going up• A recession ends at a trough• Trough – the turnaround point where GDP stops

going down.

The Expansion Phase of the Business Cycle• Expansion – period of recovery from a recession. • Expansion begins at the trough of the business

cycle.• Expansion ends when the business cycle reaches a

new peak.• Since WWII, the average recession lasted 11

months. The average expansion lasted 43 months.• The expansion that began in March 1991 & almost

ended in March 2001 is the longest in history. (1st and 3rd quarters of 2001 GDP dropped)

CPI 2002-2011

US Real GDP 2006-2010

http://www.finfacts.com/artman/uploads/3/US-gdp-Q3-2009_oct292009.jpg

US Real GDP 1999-2009

http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/images_lessons/904_em904_figure11.jpg

US Real GDP 1990-2006

http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/images_lessons/756_756_figure1311.jpg

Real GDP v. Unemployment

http://jmuservice.com/img/news/US_Real_GDP_&_Unemployment_Rate.jpg

GNP v. GDP

• GDP- the dollar value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s national borders in a year.

• GNP- the dollar value of all final goods, services, and structures produced with labor and property supplied by a countries residents.

Depression

• If a recession becomes very severe, it may turn into a depression

• A depression is a state of the economy with large numbers of people out of work, acute shortages, and excess capacity in manufacturing plants

• Between 1929 and 1933, GDP declined nearly 50% and unemployment rose 8 times!

Depression• Currency was in such short supply that towns, counties,

chambers of commerce, and other civic bodies resorted to printing their own money, known as depression scrip

• Several factors contributed to the Great Depression

• One was the disparity in the distribution of income

• Easy and plentiful credit also appears to have played a role

• Global economic conditions also played a part as American tariffs on imports kept many countries from selling goods to the United States

Economics 11/10/11 http://mrmilewski.com

• OBJECTIVE: Examine of the business cycle.

MCSS E-2.1.4

• I. Journal #35 pt.A-Questions on Econ U.S.A. episode#3

• II. Quiz#19• III. Return of Chapter#12 Test • IV. Journal #35 pt.B

-notes on the business cycle

Econ U.S.A. episode #3• 1.) Why was Congress unable to determine the true

severity of the Great Depression?• 2.) What was the result of this problem?• 3.) How did the U.S. Government prepare economically

for WWII?• 4.) How does government spending affect the circular

flow?• 5.) How did the environmental concerns of the 1970’s

effect the economy?• 6.) How does the government know if the policies they

enact have helped the economy?

This week

• Chapter#13 section#1

• Chapter#14 section#1

• Chapter#14 section#3

• Chapter#13&14 Test is Tuesday!

Figure 13.3Circular Flow of Economic Activity

The End of the Depression• Massive government spending during World War II

added a huge stimulant to the economy for most of the early 1940s

• Recession returned in 1945, but it did not last• As soon as the war was over, consumers went on a

buying binge that stimulated expansion again• Since 1965, there has been a recurring pattern of

recessions and expansions• After 1980, however, recessions occurred less frequently• The expansion that began in 1991 is the longest

expansion in United States history

Why Business Cycles?• No one theory seems to explain past business cycles, or

serves as a way to predict future ones

• Changes in capital expenditures are one cause of business cycles

• When the economy is expanding, businesses expect future sales to be high, so they invest heavily in capital goods

• After a while, businesses may decide they have expanded enough and they begin to pull back on their capital investments

Inventory Adjustments & Innovation• Inventory adjustments, or changes in the level of business

inventories, are a second possible cause of business cycles

• Some businesses cut back on inventories at the first sign of an economic slowdown and then build them back up again at the first sign of an upturn

• When a business innovates, it often gains an edge on its competitors because its costs go down or its sales go up

• The imitating companies must invest heavily to do this, and an investment boom follows

Monetary Policy• A fourth possible cause of business cycles is the credit

and loan policies of the Federal Reserve System

• When “easy money” policies are in effect, interest rates are low and loans are easy to get

• Eventually the increased demand for loans causes interest rates to rise, which in turn discourages new borrowers

• As borrowing and spending slow down, the level of economic activity declines

Shocks• A final potential cause of business cycles is

external shocks, such as increases in oil prices, wars, and international conflict

• Some shocks drive the economy up, as when Great Britain discovered North Sea oil in the 1970s

• Other shocks can be negative, as when high oil prices hit the United States in the early 1970s

Economics 11/11/11 http://mrmilewski.com

• OBJECTIVE: Examine of the effects of monetary policy on the business cycle & types of inflation. MCSS E-2.1.7

• I. Journal #36 pt.A-Read “Business Week Newsclip” p.362

-Answer questions (1-2) p.362

• II. Journal #36 pt.B-notes on the business cycle

• III. Journal #36 pt.C-notes on the Commanding Heights (episode#2 day#2)

Inflation• Inflation is a special kind of economic instability, one

that deals with changes in the level of prices rather than the level of employment and output

• To better understand inflation, we must first examine how it is measured

• Then we can examine the causes of inflation and its consequences

• In order to find inflation, we start with the price level, the relative magnitude of prices at one point in time

• To measure the price level, economists select a market basket of goods

CPI• They then construct a price index such as the

consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index, or the implicit GDP price deflator

• Prices tend to rise faster during expansions and then slow down during recessions

• On rare occasions, unusual circumstances may cause deflation, or a decrease in the general price level

The Rate of InflationFigure 14.5

Types of Inflation• Creeping inflation - inflation in the range of 1 to

3 percent per year• Galloping inflation - a more intense form of

inflation that can go as high as 100 to 300 percent• When inflation gets totally out of control,

hyperinflation - inflation in the range of 500 percent a year and above–occurs

Causes of Inflation• Nearly every period of inflation is due to

one of the following causes• First explanation demand-pull theory -

all sectors in the economy try to buy more goods and services than the economy can produce

• As C + I + G converge on stores, shortages occur and prices go up

Causes of Inflation• Second explanation - federal

government’s deficit - blames inflation only on the federal government’s deficit spending

• Third explanation claims that rising input costs (cost push)–especially labor–drive up the cost of products for manufacturers and cause inflation

Causes of Inflation• Still another explanation says that no single group is to

blame for inflation

• According to this view, a self-perpetuating wage/price spiral of wages and prices begins that is difficult to stop

• The final and most popular explanation for inflation is excessive monetary growth

• This occurs when the money supply grows faster than real GDP

• Inflation cannot be maintained without a growing money supply to fuel it

Consequences of Inflation• When inflation is

present, it can have a disruptive effect on an economy for several reasons

• The most obvious effect of inflation is that the dollar buys less

Consequence of Inflation• Decreased purchasing power is especially hard on retired

people with fixed incomes because their money buys a little less each month

• A second destabilizing effect is that inflation can cause people to change their spending habits, which disrupts the economy

• A third destabilizing effect of inflation is that it tempts some people to speculate heavily in an attempt to take advantage of a higher price level

• Finally, inflation alters the distribution of income• During long inflationary periods, lenders

are generally hurt more than borrowers• Loans made earlier are repaid later in inflated dollars