Economics in a new era

Economic Impacts and Strategies

By Brian Wang

Sept 12, 2007

Overview

• Lead up to Molecular manufacturing• Technology and world of 2015-2020

– Advanced self assembly, chemistry, DNA nanotechnology, highly scaled tools

• Nanofactories impact• Fast production Infrastructure revisions years/months

not decades• Not just production Clear hurdles to other technology• Choices that matter – faster growth not just economic

competition but to save lives

Metamaterials and superlenses,New states of matter Adiabatic quantum computer

Superthread: 100 times stronger than steel Zyvex nanosolve additive

Background and review of the Acceleration of Technology

DNA robotic arm array

DNA origami: 200-trillionths actual size map

Virus assembled batteries

Total genetic control Gene therapy, RNAi,RNA activation, metagenomics, synthetic biology

IBM nanogravure printing, 2 nanomater placements

Nanopantography(Billions of ion beams)

-Thermochemical nanolithography(writes 10,000+ times faster than DPN, mm/sec)dimensions down to 12 nanometers in width

Fracture induced Structuring, 60 nm

Convergence greater than sum of individual technology parts

A lot of different technology developing

Molecular nanotechnology and technology convergence

Makes what existed before more powerful and accelerates convergence

+ =

Improving technology that is underestimated

• Labs on a chip and bubble logic• Nanomaterials revolution not just for stronger material

(CNT reinforced aluminum, nanograin metal) but also batteries, fuel cells. CVD-diamond

• Superconductors• Nanomembranes• Lasers• Wireless, software radio• Robotics, automation, AI and UAVs• Rapid prototyping, rapid manufacturing, claytronics• RFIDs, smart dust and variations• Cryocoolers, magnetic cooling, efficient condition control

Social change

• Mass wealth (15 million millionaires in 2015 double 2004 amount)

Extrapolation of Merrill Lynch wealth survey• Triple the number of Tech angel investors in 2015UNH's venture research center : 51,000 businesses raised

angel funding from 234,000 individuals in 2006 $25.6 billion into US entrepreneurial ventures in 2006 http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/03/20/

investing_in_start_ups_by_wealthy_angels_rises_108/• Rise of China, India and other countries• Long term acceleration of economic growth• More countries, companies and people able to fund

technology and change

More companies and countries will be able to fund and achieve disruptive changes

Faster than Moore’s Law and the spread of Moore’s law outside IT

• NAND memory

• System Integration (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun06/3649)

• Graphics chips (general purpose GPUs)

• Falling price of DNA sequencing, synthesis

2015 Projections• 200,000 – 1 million qubit quantum computer• Billions of artificial or simulated neurons• NRAM (Nantero) and PRAM (Ovonics) memory• Ovonic quantum control devices 2008-2013 enable flat

computers• 64 Terabyte flash drives (Samsung)• Gene Therapy and gene doping• Superthread – carbon nanotubes common• Wireless, fiber&cable superbroadband 100Mbps5 GbpsComcast, Verizon, White space modem (Microsoft and others) overseas, NTT

fiber demo results

• Gigapixel cameras• Claytronics, Ubiquitous computing, wireless power/comm • China’s economy passes the USA 2018 +- 3 years

2015 : Nanomaterials, Tools

• Carbon Nanotubes: MWCNT 10k tons per year 2011, $10-50/lb

• Carbon Nanotubes: 40K-100K tons/year by 2015, $1-5/lb or less

• Graphene

• Millions of higher precision parallel AFMs/STMs etc…

DNA Sequencing cost and DNA synthesis

Cost to sequence genome (3 billion pairs)

Largest synthesis

3M BP for

ribosome

2007 $100K 45K BP

2010 $3K 1 M BP

2012 $300-600 5M BP

2015 $10-50 50M BPPre-full blown molecular manufacturing still has powerful nanopore technology

DNA factories help with the synthesis, as does UK ideas factory synthesis

Pre-nanofactoryA lot of China’s production revolution based on speed and flexibility.

’ China Makes, The World Takes’http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200707/shenzhena company that has built up a brand name and relationships with retailers, and knows

what it wants to promote and sell next—and needs to save time and money in manufacturing a product that requires a fair amount of assembly.

The Chinese factories can respond more quickly, and not simply because of 12-hour workdays. “Anyplace else, you’d have to import different raw materials and components,” Casey told me. “Here, you’ve got nine different suppliers within a mile, and they can bring a sample over that afternoon. People think China is cheap, but really, it’s fast.” Moreover, the Chinese factories use more human labor, and fewer expensive robots or assembly machines, than their counterparts in rich countries. “People are the most adaptable machines,” an American industrial designer who works in China told me. “Machines need to be reprogrammed. You can have people doing something entirely different next week.”

About this time (2015-2025) full blown molecular manufacturing

• What has been holding back technological change even against the powerful technology of 2015 (2015-2025) ?

• Changing Infrastructure has still been hard– Energy was taking decades to solve– Roadblocks to realizing full computing potential

• Truly conquering space has still been hard• Bad choices and governance too (expect that to

persist)• MM will provide the capacity to fix even the hard

problems (energy, infrastructure, space) but the X factor is the choices that people collectively make

Nanofactory capabilities

• A one-kilogram one-hour nanofactory could, if supplied with enough feedstock and energy, makes 4 thousand tons of nanofactories and 8 thousand tons of products in a single day

• Possible to replace/upgrade more than our current production capability in weeks to months

• Change out earth based infrastructure multiple times per year– World infrastructure X.0

• Even faster and more flexible – not just the nanofactory but world production supply chain

Capability to physically and technological overcome barriers to space and economic

goals can be achieved

Collective mental restrictions (consistently wrong choices and bad governance/incentive feedback structure) and that

prevent full capabilities from being developed must be overcome

Some past technology has been underutilized and underdeveloped and a

small fraction of its potential

Nuclear power and nuclear propulsion

Trying to give up good uses does not mean bad uses are avoided it just

means good uses are reduced

Any delays or production limitations for molecular manufacturing

• If full-blown nanofactory molecular manufacturing does not happen until 2025 or so, there will be increasingly powerful molecular manipulations and powerful nanometer control capabilities

• Use the advanced nanometer manipulation systems • Only use molecular manufacturing for critical

components• Even when we have diamondoid mechanosynthesis

other simpler manufacturing can be used. • Maximum energy and resource efficiency

We need to maintain momentum once we overcome current challenges

Best non-molecular manufacturing plans and enable and enhance them

• Dual mode transportation– Mix of car and rail. Cars with guiderails.– 3 to 6 times more efficient than standard cars– Lets you go all electric, prevent accidents– Linear Induction Motors (LIM) higher volumes, high

speeds, no accidents• Solar power in space and space colonization

– Current: Dnepr Rocket, CP1/a-Si:H (4300W/kg)

• Mirror / Laser arrays– 100-144 kw lasers, Thirty two 4.5 KW laser diodes– $30/watt 2006, $10/watt 2010, $2/watt 2015

• Food production stem cell factories

Drilling down on Industries and parts of the economy

• Automotive and Transportation• Consumer Products • Distribution • Energy, Utilities and Chemicals • Financial Services • Healthcare • Life Sciences • Manufacturing • Public Sector • Retail • Telecom, Media & Entertainment

Transportation and Distribution

• Clean, efficient energy and transportation• Smart cars and highways (plans and prototypes

but had chicken and egg problems)• Molecular manufacturing mass produces

“chickens and eggs”• Virtual reality – super halo communication

rooms, physical moving avatars• Local production less transportation of freight.

Pipelines of feedstocks that cannot be locally produced

• Where possible change in place

Revamping transportation

• In place modifications: electric cars, buses, smart highways, platooning vehicles, blocking off city centers (park and switch to nano-Segways – nano-golf carts)

• More radical: Dual mode transportation• Nanofactories on the base of a vehicle lay out

guiderails.• Adapt cars, trucks, buses• Virtual reality replacement for travel• Handle materials, waste in place• Large scale bubble logic through sewers

Is infrastructure being revamped Quarterly ?Yearly ? Longer ?

• Subscription model for upgrades

• After one or two revamps how much are the follow on revamps doing (how much progress and real difference from Excel 97 to Office 2005 ?)

• Do not want customers/people stuck with old and outdated models and their net worth tank with depreciating asset

Productivity and Growth• Depending on how clever and bold we are collectively growth can

rapidly increase to 20% to 50% per year as full blown molecular manufacturing kicks in.

• After initial burst..what is longer term sustainable growth?• Managing and maximizing hypergrowth will not be easy• Fastest growing company listshttp://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/b2fastestgrowing/2007/http://www.inc.com/resources/inc500/2006/top25.htmlIt will be critical to be able scale overall business quickly. Dot.com was

a warm up

Increase energy efficiency 3-10 times, increase usage 500 times. In 20 years at the 50% annual rate, we would be past Kardashev level one (need off earth power or far high density power sources) 60 more years to K2.

Restructuring for hypergrowth

• Initial certified inputs and outputs and scaling assessments. Compared against what might be displaced.

• Varying certifications. ie. Easy certification for some better power sources to displace dangerous coal power, but growing beyond that would have more stringent requirements

• Need multiple faster than real time simulations for assessing environmental and other impacts

• Cannot have multi-year studies and assessments and have good growth let alone hypergrowth

• Need to enable more builders of new industries and expander of industries

• Get people from just re-allocating without adding value• Without restructuring some will be stuck at lower growth levels• Strengthen entrepreneurship, venture capital and private equity

More change than just production (Part 1 of 3)

• What scientific and engineering problems that were just out of reach are conquered by the new capabilities ?

• Wide scale molecularly precise real time analysis – boosts scientific understanding

• Room temperature superconductors (nanostructured materials, phonon mediation)

• Enabling wave after wave of new powerful technology and change

More change than just production (part 2 of 3)

• Nuclear fusion (Z-pinch, Colliding beam , laser)• Mass produced high burn nuclear fission and

large scale adsorption of ocean uranium and other minerals

• Super-charged solar power production• Magnets, lasers, energy density, capacitance

• Inexpensive access to space from many different technology options

More change than just production (part 3 of 3)

• Nanomedicine• Life Extension• Capability enhancement• AI and robotics• Unblocking breakthroughs• Maximizing physical effects

– Capacitance for lorentz propulsion– Energy density– Conversion efficiency

• Physics and science at the edges

Business strategies

Premium for speed and effective responsiveness

Detailed anticipation

Effectiveness in handling transitions

No limit/High Growth Businesses and Jobs

• Entrepreneurs, business owners, innovation• Entertainers• Space expansion, adventurers, explorers• Various people to people interaction (Events, sports …)• Certain healthcare, health improvement and services• Fashion, design, status• Sales, marketing, branding, relationship building• Many jobs not really part of high growth economy and

relatively inert matter to civilization progress• Economy can also grow by doing more of the same

transactions– X times more transactions in the same year– New kinds of transactions

Strategies when technology is rapidly accelerating

• More projects should be game changers and leapfrogging• Robust positioning and strategies in case of rapid change• Forward view and rapid response• Awareness of other situations globally and historically• Look for leverage and creative ways to overcome

bottlenecks• Look at altering processes and creative bootstrapping.

Deliver as much benefit as you can now. Get more when you revamp

• Collaborative Simulations to model choices and options– Informed Choice management and negative impact

mitigation• Hypergrowth and hypercompetition

Prudently spread bets, travel in the right direction and to the right goals

Gather information and useful resources (lasting relationships etc)

More Technology for more robustness and ability to tolerate persistent imperfection

Change may be requiredSlowing down probably a bad choice

Some problems may not go away but may be more tolerable

Advancednano site

http://advancednano.blogspot.com

Brian Wang

blwang@gmail.com

Open for Q & A

Choices and Competition

• Hyper speed game of rule-changing Go– Build anew away from protected areas– Take more turns– Hypercompetition– More choices, options and opportunities

• Singularity Technologically possible X companies are competing to do it

2015 China has a big middle class

• China 140 million households (50%) out of 280 million with $6000-10000 (4RMB to 1USD)

• Up from 41 million (20%) 2007 205 million households, 25000-40000RMB

• 59 million households (21.2%) out of 280 million with $10000-25000 (4 RMB to 1USD)

• Up from 21 million (10%) 2007 205 million households, 40000-100000RMB

• 65% in cities up from 50%Source: McKinsey Quarterly

http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=1734&L2=18&L3=30

Historical shifts to high growth

• Technology can provide productivity boom

• Shifts in leadership in China (1978) and India (1980s and 1991)

• Philippines recent shift• Corruption,

mismanagement and economic structure can limit growth

Series of exponential modes

• Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes, Robin Hanson Dept. of Economics, George Mason University

Mode Doubling Date Began Doubles Doubles X Times

Grows Time (DT) To Dominate of DT of WP

---------- --------- ----------- ------ ------- --------

Brain size 34M yrs 550M B.C. ? "~16" 64,000

Hunters 230K yrs 2000K B.C. 7.2 8.7 450

Farmers 860 yrs 4700 B.C. 8.1 7.5 200

?? 58 yrs 1730 3.9 3.2 10

Industry 15 yrs 1903 1.9 >6.3 80

MNT X weeks 20XX

MNT + AGI Y days 20YY

MNT + AGI + New Science vX

GDP Equations

C is private consumption, G is public consumption, NX is net exports, and I represents investments, or savings. Note that in the Solow model, we represent public consumption and private consumption simply as total consumption from both the public and government sector.

Cobb-Douglas function where Y represents the total production in an economy. A represents multifactor productivity (often generalized as technology), K is capital and L is labor.

Ex. 2% of the population moves from rural areas to cities each year. People in cities have 3 times the productivity (GDP per capita). Urbanization would then add 6% GDP to annual growth

Jobs

The stronger AI and automation is then the more jobs are changed

Fishing could be replaced by stem cell food factories

Assets• Challenges for Asset classes

• Real estate - valuation change based on possibly lower cost of replacement

• Shifts in economic health of regions and cities could cause localized price collapses

• Adaptability and competitiveness of the people who make up the economy of a region is vital - able to shift and create new industries

• How to make creative destruction humane ?– Under-employed should be preparing for the next waves

• Assets / jobs secondary to information (IP), creativity, relationships, branding, reputation

Andy Groves Healthcare plan:opportunity for medical products

• http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2007/04/andygrove_healthcare_qanda?currentPage=2

• A near term example of a plan to overcome government inaction, circumventing slow changing infrastructure protectors

• First: Keep elderly people at home as long as possible (an idea he calls "shift left"). Use high-tech gadgets to help them remember to take their medicine and monitor their health. In one year, if a quarter of the people now living in nursing homes went home, it would save more than $12 billion, Grove says.

• Second, Grove advocates addressing the uninsured by building more "retail clinics" -- basic health care centers in drugstores and other outlets that can take care of problems that are presently, and expensively, addressed in emergency rooms.

• Lastly, unify medical records using the internet. In his vision, every patient carries a USB drive containing his or her medical records, which any doctor can download.

An Open Mind and creative solutions

• Is it impossible or are you thinking about a bad solution ? Has it already happened?

• Maybe another approach provides the benefits without the downsides or the challenges

• Teleportation OR rapid acceleration• Holodeck OR VR• No FTL but really good telescopes and fantastic

in solar system mobility

Coaching those with different views of the world and the future

• Provide information that they may not be aware to adjust their point of view

• Position strategies as precautionary plan B or keeping options open

Screens and form factors

• OLED• Ovonic quantum control• Separating functions• Practical holographyhttp://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18572/

http://www.ivanhoe.com/science/story/2006/05/142si.html

Hologram from computer file

Allow preview of product

Identifying the right problems for you and your clients

• Are you prepared ? Familiar with big picture, learning curve

• Some of the details of problems and solutions matters are very important

• Tested processes• Are the right questions being asked?• Scoping and quantifying• One problem or many?• Other points of view and contexts