economics of asteroid mining
DESCRIPTION
Economics of asteroid mining. Shen ge Neha satak. Outline. Introduction Factor: Economic Demand Factor: Supply (Asteroid Composition) Factor: Accessibility (Astrodynamics) Factor: Mining Technology Net Present Value Example Case. Growing Interest in Space Mining. Asteroid Resources. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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ECONOMICS OF ASTEROID MININGS H E N G EN E H A S ATA K
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OUTLINE• Introduction• Factor: Economic Demand• Factor: Supply (Asteroid
Composition)• Factor: Accessibility (Astrodynamics)• Factor: Mining Technology• Net Present Value• Example Case
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GROWING INTEREST IN SPACE MINING
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ASTEROID RESOURCES
Chart from Charles Gerlach
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NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS• Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) are
of interest due to the relative ease of reaching them.
• All NEAs have perihelion of less than 1.3 AUs.
Image Credit: William K Hartmann
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ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NEAS
Diameter(m) >1000 1000-140 140-40 40-1
Distance (km) for which
F>100(=0.5 m)
>20 million < 20 million,> 400,000
<400,000(Lunar orbit)
>32,000(GEO orbit)
<32,000>20
H(absolute magnitude) 17.75 17.75-22.0 22.0-24.75 >24.75
N estimated 966 `14,000 ~285,000 ??
N observed 899 4,557 2,259 1,685
O/E 93% ~33% ~1% ??
Image Credit: http://www.iau.org/public/nea/
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KNOWN NEAS
Image Credit: NASA JPL
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IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
Astrodynamics and
Propulsion
Asteroid Composition
Mining Technologies
Economic Demand
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ECONOMIC DEMAND
Image Credit: http://www.lubpedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/HD-Pictures-of-Earth-from-Space-4.jpg
Space market:Life support ConstructionPropellant RefrigerantAgriculture
Earth market:Construction ElectronicsJewelryTransportationFuel cellsIndustrial
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TYPES OF NEAS
S-typeStony
(silicates, sulfides, metals)
C-typeCarbonaceous
(water, volatiles)
M-typeMetallic(metals)
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MATERIALS FROM NEASMaterial Product
Raw silicate Ballast or shielding in space
Water and other volatiles Propellant in space
Nickel-Iron (Ni-Fe) metal Space structuresConstruction on earth
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)
Catalyst for fuel cells and auto catalyzers on earthJewelry on earth
Semiconductor metals Space solar arraysElectronics on earth
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NEA ORBIT TYPES
Image Credit: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html
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ACCESSIBILITYWe want to find the asteroids with
low delta-vs to reduce propellant needed. Distribution of
specific linear momentum of a Hohmann transfer from low Earth orbit (LEO) to NEAs according to Benner.
Image Credit: Elvis, McDowell, Hoffman, and Binzel. “Ultra-low Delta-v Objects and the Human Exploration of Asteroids.”
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ACCESSIBILITY: ROCKET EQ
whereΔv = velocity changeVe = exhaust velocityMo = total massMp = propellant mass
Two Options:1. Reduce delta-v required for trajectories to
enable low-thrust propulsion methods such as electric, solar thermal, or solar sail propulsion.
2. Use chemical propulsion for high thrust trajectories if needed.
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ACCESSIBILITY EXAMPLE“Apollo-Type” Mission
Image Credit: Sonter’s Thesis
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LOW DELTA-VS FOR MANY NEAS
Compare!Image Credit: Elvis, McDowell, Hoffman, and Binzel. “Ultra-low Delta-v Objects and the Human Exploration of Asteroids.”
Image Credit: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/Deltavs.svg
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MINING TECHNOLOGY: MOBILITY• Low gravity environment
prevents use of wheeled rovers.• Innovative mobility methods are
developing.
Image Credit: Yoshida, Maruki, and Yano. “A Novel Strategy for Asteroid Exploration with a Surface Robot.”
Image Credit: Nakamura, Shimoda, and Shoji. “Mobility of a Microgravity Rover using Internal Electromagnetic Levitation.”
Image Credit: Chacin and Yoshida. “Multi-limbed Rover for Asteroid Surface Exploration using Static Locomotion.”
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MINING TECHNOLOGY:ROCK EXTRACTIONControlled Foam Injection (CFI)
Electric Rockbreaking
Microwave Drilling Diamond Wire Sawing
Image Credits: Harper, G.S. “Nederburg Miner.”
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MINING TECHNOLOGY: WATER EXTRACTION
Image Credits: Zacny et al. “Mobile In-situ Water Extractor (MISWE) for Mars, Moon, and Asteroids In Situ Resource Utilization.”
Water ice extraction from soils currently being developed by Honeybee called the Mars In-situ Water Extractor (MISWE).
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NET PRESENT VALUE• The economic justification for an asteroid
mining operation is only the case if the net present value (NPV) is above zero.
• It is NOT just the cost of mining and going there versus the profit obtained from resources.
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SONTER’S NPV EQUATION
Corbit is the per kilogram Earth-to-orbit launch cost [$/kg]Mmpe is mass of mining and processing equipment [kg]f is the specific mass throughput ratio for the miner [kg
mined / kg equipment / day]t is the mining period [days]r is the percentage recovery of the valuable material from the
ore∆v is the velocity increment needed for the return trajectory
[km/s]ve is the propulsion system exhaust velocity [km/s]i is the market interest ratea is semi-major axis of transfer orbit [AU]Mps is mass of power supply [kg]Mic is mass of instrumentation and control [kg]Cmanuf is the specific cost of manufacture of the miner etc.
[$/kg]B is the annual budget for the project [$/year]n is the number of years from launch to product delivery in
LEO [years].
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GE AND SATAK NPV, whereP = returned profit ($)CM = Manufacturing cost ($)CL = Launch cost ($) is equal to ms/c (mass of spacecraft) * uLV
(unit mass cost)CR = Recurring cost ($) is equal to B (annual operational
expense) * T (total time)CE = Reentry cost ($) is equal to Mreturned (mass returned) * fe
(fraction of material sold on Earth) * uRV (unit mass cost)
where,Vs = Value in space ($)Ve = Value on Earth ($)fe = Fraction of material sold on Earth
where,u = unit cost of miner ($/kg)pf = payload fractionsf = structural fraction = delta-v to asteroidve = exhaust velocity
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EXAMPLE CASE:1996 FG3
Preliminary baseline of ESA’s MarcoPolo-R Mission
Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3498340666887911 1.5696e-08
a 1.054167926597945 7.8388e-10 AU
q .6853840738632947 1.6408e-08 AU
i 1.991740620771903 1.4433e-06 deg
node 299.7309666180939 4.8879e-05 deg
peri 23.98117617336174 4.8216e-05 deg
M 167.6713320688418 1.4068e-06 deg
tp
2456216.372168471335
(2012-Oct-15.87216847)
1.4204e-06 JED
period395.33305146
704411.08
4.4095e-071.207e-09
dyr
n .910624595297746 1.0157e-09 deg/d
Q 1.422951779332595 1.0581e-09 AU
Source: NASA JPL
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TRAJECTORY TO 1996 FG3
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NPV COMPARISONS
• Both mining time and total time for is optimized for maximum returns.• Greatest mining time ≠
best NPV• Least total time ≠ best
NPV
• Selling water at $200.00 per liter (kg) yields a NPV of $763,370,000.
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NPV DEPENDENCY ON ECONOMICS
• A good estimate of discount rate is crucial for estimating a good NPV.
• Selling water at a minimum of 187 USD/kg is necessary to break even.
• Even bringing back water to sell at $7000/kg makes a profit since launching >1500 kg of water is very expensive.
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THE NEXT STEPS1. Asteroid Composition. Create database of NEAs
of interest for resource extraction with their orbits and compositions.
2. Space Mining. Develop potential mining technologies for modified use in space for resources other than water.
3. Astrodynamics. Design optimal trajectories and an in-depth study of various propulsion methods.
4. Space Economics. Identify supply and demand curve and formulate a more rigorous discount rate.
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QUESTIONS?
Image Credit: http://en.es-static.us/upl/2012/04/asteroid_mining.jpeg