economy notefile.truefriend.com/storage/eng/research/economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. korean economy...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economy Note
Sep 11 2012
1
Chart book for Korean economy: Domestic demand
stimulus announced
� Aug exports confirmed spread of the eurozone crisis
� 1H12 consolidated fiscal balance hit three-year low, indicating increased gov’t spending
� Domestic demand stimulus measures announced but effects to be limited
External transactions slowdown affected by eurozone crisis is spreading
In Aug, Korea’s exports shrank 6.2% YoY to USD42.9bn and the trade balance had
a mere USD200mn surplus, the least since Feb. The biggest exports decliner was
automotives, which saw a big drop of 21.7% YoY due to global economic
downturns and the disrupted production caused by strikes in Jul-Aug at domestic
automakers. Korea’s exports performance by region indicates that Europe’s crisis
is also taking a heavy toll on Asia and Central and South America. Korea’s exports
to Asia contracted 10.6% YoY and those to Central and South America plummeted
16.5% in Aug.
Government’s economic stimulus policy firmed
YTD Jun, Korea’s consolidated fiscal balance had a cumulative W11.5trn deficit. In
terms of 1H figures, 1H12 hit a three-year low since 1H09. Although income grew
5.7% YoY, spending increased 11.5% YoY, more than double the income growth. It
is because the government is executing fiscal spending earlier than planned as
Europe’s persistent debt crisis is putting a damper on the domestic and global
economies. In Jul alone, construction tenders from the public sector rose 26% YoY.
As such, the government is spending more to stimulate the economy.
Exports growth Consolidated fiscal balance
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy Source: Bank of Korea
jaehoonlee
Chaewon Lee
822-3276-5150 [email protected] Minkyoo Jun
822-3276-6229 [email protected]
![Page 2: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Government’s added measures to boost domestic economy
Faced with steady export declines hit by the overseas slowdown and shaky
domestic economic conditions, the Korean government introduced a stimulus
package focusing on real estate tax cuts. The outline of the measures includes
lowering the monthly withholding for salary income, a 50% cut to the housing
purchase tax and a tax exemption for capital gains from the transfer of an unsold
pre-sale home. But the policy effects will likely be limited. While the withheld salary
amount will be lowered, the total tax obligation for a salaried worker will remain
unchanged due to changes in the year-end income tax adjustment rules. The
effects of real estate tax cuts should be also minimal given little hope that housing
prices will turn upward. However, considering its determination to boost the
economy, the government will very likely come up with additional stimulus plans.
![Page 3: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
1. Korean economy [Economy I]
Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07 08 09 10 11 12
QoQ growth YoY growth(%)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Imports Exports
(USDbn)
Industrial production index Services activity index
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Cyclical component of coincident composite index Cyclical component of leading composite index
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(avg=100)
95
97
99
101
103
105
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(avg=100)
Source: Statistics Korea, BoK
![Page 4: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Korean economy [Economy II]
Manufacturing utilization Manufacturing inventory-to-shipments
60
65
70
75
80
85
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(X, shipment/inventory)
Business survey index forecast Consumer survey index
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Manufacturing Non-manufacturing
(base=100)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
07 08 09 10 11 12
(base=100)
Construction completions Estimation index of equipment investment
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Source: Statistics Korea, BoK
![Page 5: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Industry - auto I
Industrial production - automobile and trailer mfg. Inventory cycle indicators - automobile and trailer
mfg.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Facility investment pressure – automobile and trailer mfg. Exports - auto
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Exports - auto parts Export price index (USD) - transportation equipment
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Imports - auto and other transportation equipment Retail sales - auto
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 6: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Industry - auto II
US retail sales - dealers China retail sales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
US manufacturing inventory-to-shipments - auto US manufacturing orders - auto and auto parts
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(X)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
US imports - auto and auto parts US consumer survey - intent to buy a vehicle within six months
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0
3
6
9
12
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Eurozone consumer survey - intent to buy a vehicle
within 12 months Korea’s machinery orders by industry - auto
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Net balance)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.7
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 7: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Industry - Electric & electronics I
Industrial production – semiconductors Industrial production - electronic parts
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Industrial production - computers, peripherals Industrial production – comm.., broadcast equipment
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Inventory cycle indicator - semiconductors Inventory cycle indicator - electronic parts
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Inventory cycle indicator - computers, peripherals Inventory cycle indicator – comm.., broadcast equip.
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 8: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Industry - Electric & electronics II
Facility investment pressure - semiconductors Facility investment pressure - electronic parts
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Facility investment pressure - computers, peripherals Facility investment pressure – comm., broadcast equip.
50
70
90
110
130
150
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
export price index - electronic parts Export price index (USD) - semiconductor components
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Export price index - communication equipment Export price index - video & audio equipment
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 9: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Industry - Electric & electronics III
Exports - semiconductors Exports – displays
0
1
2
3
4
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Exports - wireless handsets Exports – computers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Exports - home appliances Exports - electric, electronics products
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
5
7
9
11
13
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
DRAM prices - contract DRAM prices - spot
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
(USD)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
(USD)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Datastream, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 10: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Industry - Electric & electronics IV
China industrial production - color TVs China industrial production - semiconductors, integrated circuits
-40
0
40
80
120
160
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-40
0
40
80
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
China exports - communication, audio equipment China exports - electric devices
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
US inventory-to-shipments – computers, electronic products US manufacturing orders - computers, electronic products
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(X)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
US retail sales - electronic products US retail sales - computers
6
7
8
9
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Datastream, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 11: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Industry - Electric & electronics V
Europe retail sales – computer parts, communication equip. Europe retail sales – video & audio equipment
95
100
105
110
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
90
95
100
105
110
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Europe manufacturing orders - computers, electronic
products
US consumer survey – intent to buy home appliances within
six months
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
( 2005=100 )
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Sector index – communication devices Sector index – semiconductors
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Communication devices
Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Semiconductors Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Sector index – IT parts Sector index – electric, electronics
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
IT parts Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
80
120
160
200
240
280
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Electric,electronics Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Source: Datastream, Dataguide Pro, KRX, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 12: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Industry – Machinery
Industrial production – electric equipment mfg. Industrial production – Other machinery mfg.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Inventory cycle indicator - electric equipment mfg. Inventory cycle indicator – Others and equipment mfg.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Machinery orders – domestic Machinery orders - overseas
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Wtrn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Wtrn)
Exports – general machinery Sector index – machinery
0
1
2
3
4
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Machinery Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Source: Statistics Korea, KRX, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 13: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Industry - Shipbuilding
Industrial production – ship and boat building Exports - ships
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
0
2
4
6
8
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Overseas shipbuilding orders BSI – shipbuilding
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Wtrn)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(base=100)
BSI for new orders – shipbuilding Sector index - shipbuilding
40
60
80
100
120
140
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(base=100)
80
120
160
200
240
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Shipbuilding
Kospi
China exports – ships China industrial production - ships
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
0
3
6
9
12
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Ton mn)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, KRX, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 14: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Industry – Steel I
Industrial production – steel mfg. Industrial production – nonferrous metals mfg.
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Inventory cycle indicator - steel mfg. Inventory cycle indicator - nonferrous metals mfg.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Exports – steel Domestic shipment – basic metals
0
1
2
3
4
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
China production – steel China inventory – steel
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 15: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Industry – Steel II
China exports – steel China imports – steel
0
2
4
6
8
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Ton mn)
0
1
2
3
4
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Ton mn)
US manufacturing orders – basic metals US inventory-to-shipments – basic metals
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USD bn)
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(X)
Export price inflation – basic steel Export price inflation – basic nonferrous metals
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
50
100
150
200
250
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2005=100)
Steel price (HR) – China market price Sector index – steel & nonferrous metals
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Steel,nonferrous metals
Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, KRX, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Iron and Steel Association, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 16: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Industry – Construction I
Domestic construction completions - building Domestic construction completions - civil engineering
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
Domestic construction orders - public sector Domestic construction orders – private sector
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
Domestic construction orders - building Domestic construction orders - civil engineering
2
4
6
8
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn 3MMA)
Apartment transaction price index Apartment transaction volume
100
110
120
130
140
150
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(2006.1=100)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
('000 units)
Source: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 17: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Industry – Construction II
Unsold apartments – nationwide Unsold apartments – Seoul metropolitan areas
30
60
90
120
150
180
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
('000 units)
30
60
90
120
150
180
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
('000 units)
Construction service revenue Sector index – construction
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
08 09 10 11 12
(USDmn)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Construction Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Overseas construction orders – total Overseas construction orders - civil engineering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.8
(USDbn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.8
(USDbn)
Overseas construction orders - building Overseas construction orders - plants
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.8
(USDbn)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.8
(USDbn)
Note: Gray region is the YTD figures of May, 2012 Source: Statistics Korea, International Contractors Association of Korea, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 18: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Industry – Oil refining & chemicals I
Industrial production – oil refining product mfg. Industrial production – basic chemical product mfg.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Inventory cycle indicator – oil refining products Inventory cycle indicator – basic chemical materials
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Exports – petroleum products Exports – petrochemical
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Export prices (USD) - petroleum products Export prices (USD) – chemical products
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 19: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Industry – Oil refining & chemicals II
China exports – oil refining products China exports – chemical products
0
1
2
3
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
China imports - oil refining products China imports - chemical products
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
0
4
8
12
16
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Sales of China’s petrochemical busineses China petrochemical companies - inventory
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
09 11 12
(RMB bn)
WTI crude oil price Sector index – energy/chemicals
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(USD/bbl)
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Energy & chemicals Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Source: CEIC, Datastream, KRX, Korea Investment & Securities Self-sufficiency= production/(production+imports-exports)
![Page 20: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Industry – Financials
Service output – banks Service output – insurance
-5
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-10
0
10
20
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Service output – credit card & installment credit Service output – financial support service
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Real GDP – finance & insurance Trading value of listed stocks
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
40
80
120
160
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn)
Commercial bank loans (end balance) NIM
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWtrn)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 21: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Industry - Communication
Services production – communication Real GDP - communication
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% QoQ)
Information/communication as a % of GDP Telecommunication as a % of total household expenditure
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Households’ telecommunication expenditure growth Inflation – mobile & smartphone telecommunication
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Mobile telecommunication
Smartphone telecommunication
(2010=100)
Domestic machinery orders by industry - communication Sector index - communication
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.7
(% YoY)
50
100
150
200
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Communication Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, KRX, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 22: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Industry – Retail I
Service output – wholesale/retail Real GDP - wholesale/retail
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% QoQ)
Retail sales – total Retail sales – durable goods
-5
0
5
10
15
20
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Retail sales – semi-durable goods Retail sales – non-durable goods
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Sales by retail outlet – department stores Sales by retail outlet – discount stores
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 23: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Industry – Retail II
Sales by retail outlet – supermarkets Domestic machinery orders by industry - wholesale/retail
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.7
(% YoY)
.
s
CSI – expenditure outlook BSI - wholesale/retail
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(base=100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(base=100)
Sector index – retail New loan rate - households
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Retail Kospi
(2009.1.1=100)
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Change in number of employed Unemployment rate (SA)
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
('000 persons
YoY)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Source: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, KRX, Korea Investment & Securities
![Page 24: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Industry – Domestic consumer goods
Export shipments – food & beverages Domestic shipments - food & beverages
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Export shipments – apparel Domestic shipments – apparel
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Export shipments - pharmaceuticals Domestic shipments - pharmaceuticals
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Export shipments – pulps, paper Domestic shipments - pulps, paper
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Source: Statistics Korea
![Page 25: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Korean economy [Government sector]
Government spending growth Government bond issues
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% QoQ)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRWbn)
Fiscal balance Fiscal revenue & spending growth
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.6
Government revenues
Government expenditure
(% YoY)
6.5 7.3
22.7
7.65.2 3.5 3.6
33.8
11.9
-17.6
16.7 18.6
-11.5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12.6
(Wtrn)
Central government debt Foreign debt
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% QoQ)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% QoQ)
Balance of government bonds issued Government construction orders
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY 3MMA)
Source: Ministry of Strategy and Finance, BoK, Statistics Korea
![Page 26: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Korean economy [Liquidity]
Reserve money M2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Lf Beneficiary certificates (mutual funds)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Wtrn)
CMA Banks’ net borrowing from overseas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Wtrn)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12
(USDbn)
Monetary stabilization bond balance Monthly foreign net buying of Korean stocks
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
07 08 09 10 11 12
(USDbn)
Source: BoK
![Page 27: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Korean economy [Prices]
Consumer price index (CPI) Core CPI growth (excl. fresh food)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
Producer price index (PPI) Core producer price index (CPPI)
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Import prices (KRW) Unit export price index
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
08 09 10 11 12
(% MoM)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(% YoY)
DRAM prices (DDR3 2Gb) Baltic Dry Index
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
(USD)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
07 08 09 10 11 12
(p)
Source: DataStream, BoK
![Page 28: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Korean economy [Financial market I]
Kospi Trading volume of listed stocks
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
07 08 09 10 11 12
(p)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
07 08 09 10 11 12
(shares bn)
KRW/USD KRW/100JPY
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/USD)
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/100JPY)
KRW/EUR KRW/RMB
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/EUR)
100
130
160
190
220
250
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/RMB)
KRW/GBP KRW/TWD
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/GBP)
25
30
35
40
45
07 08 09 10 11 12
(KRW/TWD)
Source: BoK, KOFIA
![Page 29: Economy Notefile.truefriend.com/Storage/eng/research/Economy_120911.pdf · 3 1. Korean economy [Economy I] Real GDP growth Imports & exports growth -6-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051606/6020396030b5670856560326/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Korean economy [Financial market II]
3yr gov’t bond yield 5yr gov’t bond yield
2
3
4
5
6
7
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
2
3
4
5
6
7
07 08 09 10 11 12
91-day CD rate Credit spread (AA-rated corporate bonds)
2
3
4
5
6
7
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Interest rate spread (3yr call - 3yr gov’t bond) Swap spread (1yr CRS - 1yr IRS)
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
Interest rate spread (3yr - 5yr gov’t bonds) Policy interest rate
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
07 08 09 10 11 12
(%p)
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Source: BoK, KOFIA