economy series - oecd · map 2. main chinese diplomatic visits to africa in 1963/64 and in 2006 7....

economy series

The Atlas on Regional Integration

is an ECOWAS — SWAC/OECD

initiative, financed by the

development co-operation agen-

cies of France, Switzerland

and Luxembourg. Divided into

four series (population, land,

economy, environment), the Atlas

chapters are being produced

during 2006-2007 and will be

available on-line on the site

www.atlas-westafrica.org

AfricA And chinA

CSAOSWAC

1. OrganisedinApril1955inJava(Indonesia),theBandoengConferencelaunchedthe«non-aligned»movement.Sub-SaharanAfrica,stillunderthecolonialcontrol,wasnotstronglypresent(besidesCôtedel’Or–ex-Ghana–LiberiaandEthiopia).

2. AicardideSaintPaul,Marc(2004)La Chine et l’Afrique entre engagement et intérêt.

tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa

ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD©2006-December2006

Introduction

C h i n a ’ sGDP has increased ten-fold over the last three decades. After

surpassing Canada, Italy, France and Great Britain, it should soon catch up

to Germany. Its influence on the reconfiguration of international dynamics is

remarkableanditintendstoplayakeyrole.Eventhoughitisnotthekeyissue,

Africaisapartofthisstrategy.

As the third-ranking trading partner, strategic investor, development

partnerandfuturefinancialsource,Chinaisshakingupthebalanceof

powerestablishedonthecontinentsinceindependence.Theimpact issogreat

thattraditionalpartners–EuropeandtheUnitedStatesinparticular–areforcedtoreview

their relations with Africa. This chapter of the Atlas on Regional Integration in West

Africaexaminestheissuesinvolvedinthesenewdynamics.Contrarytootherchapters,

itfocusesontheentirecontinent,eventhoughWestAfricaisstudiedwheneverpossible.

TheChinesestrategyisfirstandforemostAfrican.Itisprobablethatwithinafewyears,

WestAfricanparticularismsandthemuchgreaterpresenceofChinainthisregion,will

justifyamorespecificallyWestAfricanfocus.

I. The Poor Brothers

Geopolitical Issues

In the early1950s, thePeople’sRepublicofChina supported thedevelopingdecoloni-

sation process and even aspired to form a “united front” with the African, Asian and

South American peoples against imperialism. The Bandoeng conference1 provided the

opportunitytoforgelinkswiththeAfricancontinentoratleastwithindependentStates2.

Thefirstofficialbilateralcontactsweremadeshortlyafterwards,firstlywithEgyptin1956,

thenwithfourothernewlyindependentcountries:Algeria,Morocco,SudanandGuinea.

AlthoughChinaandtheSovietUnionhadcooperatedto“leadAfricatorevolution,”their

goalsnowdiverged.TheUSSRlaunchedinto“peacefulcoexistence”,puttingpeaceand

�


3. Attheopeningofthe8thChineseCommunistParty(CCP)conventionin1956,Maodeclared:“We must give active support to the national independence and liberation movements in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as to the peace movement and righteous struggle in all countries throughout the world” (W.A.C.Adie(1964):Chinese Policy towards Africa).

4. ThisrivalrydatesbacktotheChineseCivilWar(1946)whennationalistswereforcedoffthemainlandtotheislandofFormosa.SincethenthereunificationofTaiwanwithmainlandChinahasbeenakeyissueforBeijing.

5. Zhang,Hongming(2000)La politique africaine de la Chine.

ALGERIA

PORTUGUESEGUINEA

NIGER

GHANA NIGERIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

CONGOLEOPOLDVILLE

UGANDA

CONGOBRAZZAVILLE

ANGOLA

LESOTHO

TANZANIA

RHODESIA

SOUTHAFRICA

NAMIBIA MOZAMBIQUE

Sawaba Party

Jeunesse

ELF

FRONASA

RWANDA

FRELIMO

COREMO

CNL

FNLA

UNITA

ZAPUZANU

SWAPO

PAC

ANC

BCP

MPLA

FLCS

Biafra

PAIGC

FLN

© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

Arms

Money

Food

Uniforms

Guerrilla trainings

Major area of insurrection

Chinese assisted guerrilla trainings camps

School books and scholarships

Medical supplies

0 300 mi

Source: Snow Philip (1988)

disarmamentatthetopofitsstrategicforeignaffairsagenda.China’s

policy was to provide military and financial support to nationalist

movements3(seeMap1).Attheendofthe1960s,ofthe41independent

Africancountries,19maintainedofficialrelationswithBeijingasopposed

to just 5 ten years prior. However, China’s ambitions in Africa were

limitedbyitssystematicoppositiontotheUSSRandwesterninterests;

it distanced itself from countries close to the Soviets or Americans:

Tunisia,Kenya,theCentralAfricanRepublic,Dahomey(Benin).

AfricaisalsowheretherivalrybetweenthePeople’sRepublicofChina

and Taiwan4was played out. In 1971, China obtained one of the five

permanentseatsontheUNSecurityCounciltothedetrimentofTaiwan

partlyduetothesupportofAfricancountries.Ofthe76votesobtained

atthe1971UNGeneralAssembly,26werefromAfricancountries.Mao

Zedongsaid:“We entered the UN owing to the support of the poor brothers

of Asia and Africa

who supported us5”.

This victory gave new

impetus to its African

policy and during the

1970snewStateswere

recipients of Chinese

aid: Benin, Mauritius,

Madagascar, Nigeria,

Rwanda,Togo,Tunisia,

Zaire, Senegal, Upper

Volta and Cameroon.

By the early 1980s,

44African States had

established diplomatic

relations with Beijing.

Chineseactivisminthe

region slowed down

during the 1980s due

to the improvement

in East-West relations.

Subsequently, several

countries (Liberia,

Lesotho, GuineaBissau,

CentralAfricanRepublic,

Niger,BurkinaFaso,the

Gambia, Senegal, Sao

Tome and Principe,

Chad) re-established

close ties with Taipei

in the early 1990s.

However,someofthem

alsore-establishedties

withBeijingsoonafter:

Map 1. Chinese Support for African Insurrections 1949 to 1987

economy series

�

Lesotho in 1994, Niger in 1996, Central AfricanRepublic andGuinea

Bissau in1998. In thesameyear,Taipeialso lost itsmainsupporter,

South Africa, which had sought to convince the People’s Republic of

Chinaofdualrecognition6.FollowingtherecentturnaroundofSenegal

(2005) and Chad (2006), only five States still recognise the island of

Formosa (Taiwan): Burkina Faso, the Gambia, Malawi, Swaziland and

Sao Tome and Principe. Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation is currently

undeniable.Incontrast,thedevelopmentofpoliticalrelationsbetween

thePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheAfricancontinentisincreasing

significantly(seeMap2).

Aid

Betweenthe1960sandtheearly1980s,thePeople’sRepublicofChina

was already providing development aid (approximately $100 million

per annum). During that time, 150,000 Chinese technical assistants

weresent toAfrica to implementprojects in theareasofagriculture,

transportinfrastructuredevelopment(roadsandrailways7),construction

ofofficialbuildings(footballstadiums),industrialdevelopment(almost

halfofMali’sindustrialisationprocessduringthe1960swassupported

byChina).Thisaidwasmodesthowevercomparedtothesumsprovided

by other bilateral partners: between 1971 and 1981, Great Britain,

the United States and France spent $250 million, $800 million and

$1,300millionrespectivelyeachyear8.

ThefirstSino-Africanforum(consultativeprocesslaunchedinBeijing

in2000)launchedanewera.Inthespanofsixyears,severalhundred

A T L A N T I C

O C E A N

I N D I A N

O C E A N

Official Chinese Visits to Africa (2006)

Visited by PresidentHu Jintao

Visited by Prime MinisterWen Jiabao

Visited by the Minister of ForeignAffairs Li Zhaoxing


ETHIOPIA

SUDAN

UNITED ARABREPUBLIC

(EGYPT)

MALI

GHANA SOMALIA

ALGERIA

TUNISIA

MOROCCO

GUINEA

A T L A N T I C

O C E A N

I N D I A N

O C E A N

Visits by Prime Minister Chou En Lai to Africa (1963-64)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

KENYA

EGYPT

MALI

NIGERIA

LIBYA

SOUTHAFRICA

TANZANIA

ANGOLA

MOROCCO

UGANDA

GHANA

LIBERIA

RDCONGO

SENEGAL

CAPE VERDECAPE VERDE

6. Lafargue,François(2005)La Chine et l’Afrique: un mariage de raison.

Map 2. Main Chinese Diplomatic Visits to Africa in 1963/64 and in 2006

7. TheseprojectsincludedtheconstructionoftheTam-Zamrailway,themostemblematicinvolvementofChinainAfricaduringthatperiod.Inthemiddleoftheculturalrevolution,in1967,theChineseMinisterinchargeofaidandcooperationsignedaformalcommitmenttobuildandfinancethelinelinkingZambiatotheIndianOceancoastinTanzania.In1970,ZambiaandTanzaniareceivedaninterest-freeloanof$400millionandChineseengineersstartedtolaythefirstmilestonesoftherailway.Forfiveyears,almost25,000technicianswereinvolvedinbuildingalmost300bridges,10kmoftunnels,96railwaystations,etc.

8. Snow,Philip(1988)The star raft: China’s encounter with Africa.

�


9. Asacomparison,theinitiativefavouringtheHeavilyIndebtedPoorCountries(HIPC)Initiativehasapproveduptonowthecancellationofdebtof29countriesofwhich25areAfricanwithatotalamountof35billionUSdollars.Moreover,inJune2005theG8proposedthatthreemultilateralinstitutions–theIMF,theInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)oftheWorldBank,andtheAfricanDevelopmentFund(AfDF)–cancel100percentoftheirdebtclaimsoncountriesthathavereached,orwilleventuallyreach,thecompletionpointunderthejointIMF-WorldBankenhancedHIPCInitiativesoastofreeupadditionalresourcestohelpthesecountriesreachtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs).

cooperationagreementsforeconomicassistance(technicalcooperation,

project aid and budgetary aid) to African countries are approved.

Since 2000, several protocol agreements were signed to cancel all or

partialdebttotalling$10billion9.Thecooperationframeworkhasbeen

strengthened,asdemonstratedbythesuccessofthethirdSino-African

summit in November 2006, with 48 African countries present. China

is now ahead of other emerging Asian countries (India, Singapore,

Thailand,etc.)andrivalsOECDMembercountriesbyannouncingin2005

$10billioninconcessionalloanstoAfricaforthe2006-2008period.Are

therecentcommitmentsbytheG-8toAfricarelatedtoChina’sgrowing

interest in Africa? This situation sets the stage for a new balance of

powerwithinwhichAfricawillbebetterabletonegotiatewithexternal

developmentpartners.

II. Partners

Trade

In 1978, the economic and social reforms led by Deng Xiaoping put

Chinaontracktowardsglobalisation.Today,thecountry’sgrowth(on

average10%peryearforover20years)isdrivenbyexportsinlow-cost

goods.Thecompetitivenessofitsexportproductsanditsrawmaterial

requirementsarechangingtheparametersoftheglobaleconomy.Even

ifitdoesnotrepresentakeyissuefortheChineseeconomy,Africais

directlyaffectedbytheseupheavals.

Trade with Africa has increased considerably: it increased 50-fold

between1980and2005reaching$40billion.However,thistradebarely

represents 2.5% of Chinese foreign trade. From an accounting point

of view, Africa remains a marginal trading partner for Beijing. From

theAfricanperspective, thedynamic isquitedifferent:practicallynil

25yearsago,by2004,ChinahadbecomeAfrica’s third-rankingtrade

partner,aftertheUnitedStatesand

France. In the span of one decade

(1993 to 2004), it has succes-

sively surpassed Portugal, Japan,

India, Italy, the UK and Germany

(seeFigure1).Generally,since1993,

Africa imports more from China

–mainlyeverydayconsumergoods-

thanitexportstoit–mainlyoiland

rawmaterials(seeFigures2and3).

However,thesituationvariesineach

region;Chinaisclearlyanimporter

with respect to Central Africa and

Southern Africa which have major

mining resources, especially oil

(seeTable1).

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

United StatesFranceItalyUnited KingdomChinaIndia

Million of US dollars

Source: Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)

Figure 1. Africa’s Main Trading Partners

Table 1. Chinese Trade with African Sub-regions* (average 1993-2004)

Millions US dollars Imports Exports

NorthAfrica 816 1,564

WestAfrica 257 1,568

CentralAfrica 841 71

EastAfrica 51 401

SouthernAfrica 2,239 1,311

Africa 4,205 4,916

* Sub-regions as defined by the African Union.Source: Compiled Data from the Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)

economy series

�

WithregardtoWestAfrica,practically

allexports toChinaconsistofoiland

cotton.Yet these twocommoditiesdo

nothavethesamestatus:cotton10isa

strategicsupplysourcefortheChinese

textile industry whereas West African

oil is a marginal supply source for

China(seeTable2).

Within a few years, China has thus

becometheleadingtradingpartnerfor

theexportsofmajorcottonproducers

(Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad).

Conversely, West African imports

fromChinacontinue to increase (seeTable3).With its sizeable

population (300 million in 2006, i.e. a third of the continent’s

population), West Africa is an attractive consumer market for

Chinese products. Nigeria alone represents 45% of the regional

populationand imports42%ofChinese exports toWestAfrica.

Besides Nigeria, the main destinations for China’s exports,

Figure 2. Main Chinese Imports from Africa in 2005

Pearls andPrecious Stones

3%

Others8%

Wood2%

Cotton3%

Metalliferous Ore13%

Oil71%

Source: Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006)

Figure 3. Main Chinese Exports to Africa in 2005

10. SeetheChapterintheAtlasdedicatedtoCotton.

Table 2. Oil and Cotton in Chinese Imports from Africa (2004)

ChineseImports

Africa West Africa

BillionsUSdollars

%BillionsUS

dollars%

Oil 10.1 64.2% 0.65 44.8%

Cotton 0.7 4.2% 0.60 37.8%

Others 4.9 31.6% 0.25 17.4%

Total 15.7 100% 1.50 100%

Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)

Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD

TransportVehicules

8%

Clothing and Footwear

14%Textile16%

TelecommunicationEquipment

8%

ElectricalAppliance

7%

Others42%

IndustrialEquipment

5%

Table 1. Chinese Trade with African Sub-regions* (average 1993-2004)

Millions US dollars Imports Exports

NorthAfrica 816 1,564

WestAfrica 257 1,568

CentralAfrica 841 71

EastAfrica 51 401

SouthernAfrica 2,239 1,311

Africa 4,205 4,916

* Sub-regions as defined by the African Union.Source: Compiled Data from the Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)

�


indecreasingorder,areBenin(15%),Ghana(9%),

Togo(8%),Côted’Ivoire(7%)andtheGambia(3%).

TheshareofgoodsimportedfromChinabyCôte

d’Ivoire and Ghana seem proportional to their

population.However, the respective intensityof

tradewithBenin,TogoandtheGambiaisgreater

in terms of the market size. This situation is

due to their transiting of trade to neighbouring

countries.

Investments

TheparticipationoftheAfricancontinentinthe

InternationalDivisionofLabour(IDL)11hasbeen

limited.Financialinvestments,mainlyintheform

of foreigndirect investments (FDIs), remain low

(3%ofglobalFDIin2004)andvaryconsiderably

fromyeartoyear(seeMap3).AlthoughtheUnited

Kingdom, the United States and France remain

theleadinginvestorsinSub-SaharanAfrica,new

countries in East Asia, South America and even

South Africa are interested in the emerging

opportunities on the continent. Among these

countries,Chinacontributed0.7%ofFDIinAfrica

between1979and2002.

Between1979and2002,almost10%ofChineseforeigndirectinvestment

wasinAfrica(seeTable4).Overthatperiod,sixAfricancountrieswere

amongChina’s top30partners, including twoWestAfricancountries

(Nigeria and Mali)12. Until 1995, the focus was strongly on southern

Africa.Sincethen,however,thescopeofChineseinvestmentsinAfrica

hasbroadened.

Recently, the trendhas intensifiedandChinacouldbecomeamajor

playerinthefuture.In2004,ChineseFDIsweremorethan$900million

of the total $15 billion in FDI received by Africa. These investments

should continueover the coming years for two concomitant reasons.

Firstly, thegradual liftingof restrictionson theChinesegovernment,

in order to prevent the increase in currency reserves from putting

Table 3. China’s Position in African Foreign Trade Between 2000 and 2005

Exports Imports

2000 2005 2000 2005

Benin 33 1 4 4

BurkinaFaso 50 1 18 12

Cameroon 5 12 8 4

CapeVerde - - 14 15

Chad 47 2 22 8

Côted’Ivoire 58 21 - 4

TheGambia - 21 1 1

Ghana 19 8 9 2

Guinea 35 17 6 1

GuineaBissau 14 - 5 8

Liberia 7 11 8 5

Mali 37 1 6 4

Mauritania 19 24 6 4

Niger - - 5 9

Nigeria 19 16 8 1

Senegal 11 15 10 7

SierraLeone - 10 7 5

Togo 43 10 2


11. TheInternationalDivisionofLabouristhebreakdownofproductionactivitiesbetweentheworld’snations.

12. However,theMinistryofCommerceofChinadonotincludeallofchina’sdirectinvestment.Togetageneralpicture,mainlandChinaoutwardFDIshouldreacharound$40billion(dataprovidedbyUNCTAD)whereasthoserecognisedbytheChineseMinistry(officiallyapprovedoutflows)onlyrepresentaquarterofthisamount.ByincludingHongKong,thefinancialhubformainlandChina,FDIstockwillreach450billionUSdollars.Moreover,ashareofforeigndirectinvestmentwouldbefinancedbyformerAsianresidentsinAfricancountriesandarethusincludedinprivatetransfersintermsofbalanceofpayments.AccordingtothestudiesconductedonTanzaniaorUganda,20%or30%ofdirectinvestmentsmadebyChinainthesecountriesareaccountedasprivatetransfers.SeeBhindaNils,etal(1999)Private capital flows to Africa: perception and reality. PAC I F I C

O C E A N

AT L A N T I CO C E A N

I N D I A NO C E A N

Source: World Investment Report, UNCTAD (2006)

China

France

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

NORTH AFRICA

SUBSAHARANAFRICA

SOUTH ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

EAST ASIA

OCEANIA

CENTRAL EUROPEAND ASIA

1970 1990 2004

FDI inflows

220

95

45

FDI outflows(The top five investors in 2004)

Billions of USdollars

5

55

125


Table 4. China’s Approved FDI Outflows, by region

Rank RegionNumber of

projectsAccumulated value

(1979-2002) $ million

1 Asia 3,672 5,482

2 NorthAmerica 847 1,270

3 Africa 585 818

4 LatinAmerica 362 658

5 Europe 1,194 561

6 Oceania 300 550

TOTAL 6,960 9,340

Source: Ministry of Commerce of China, in « China: an emerging FDI outward investor » (2003)

economy series

�

pressure on interest rates,

should favour growth of

investments outside the

country. Secondly, China

hasmadefirmcommitments

to facilitate trade and

investment in the African

continent.

According to the results of

asurveycarriedoutin2000

on 100 Chinese multina-

tionals,Africa isaprioritymarketforathirdofthem13.Between650

and750ChinesecompaniesarenowestablishedinSub-SaharanAfrica.

Themain investmentsector isoil.But,manyothersectors,viewedas

highpotential orprofitable, attract strong capital flows fromBeijing,

Shanghaiandelsewhere:mining,fishingandexoticwood,manufacturing

industries as well as infrastructures (roads, railway, ports, airports,

PAC I F I CO C E A N



Source: World Investment Report, UNCTAD (2006)

China

France

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

NORTH AFRICA

SUBSAHARANAFRICA

SOUTH ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

EAST ASIA

OCEANIA

CENTRAL EUROPEAND ASIA

1970 1990 2004

FDI inflows

220

95

45

FDI outflows(The top five investors in 2004)

Billions of USdollars

5

55

125


Map 3. Foreign Direct Investment throughout the World

Table 5. Chinese Foreign Direct Investments in Selected African Countries (2002)

Inward FDI stocks ($ million)

Chinese FDI stocks ($ million)

Proportion(%)

Cameroon 1,505 16 1.1

Ghana 1,610 19 1.2

Mali 523 58 11

Nigeria 22,570 44 0.2

SouthAfrica 29,611 125 0.4

Tanzania 2,335 41 1.8

Zambie 2,241 134 6.0

Source: Jenkins, R. (2006) The economic impacts of China and India on Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and prospects

13.UNCTAD(2003)China: an emerging FDI outward,p9.

�


telecommunications, etc.). Of the thousands of projects executed in

Africa, 500are exclusively conducted by the China Road and Bridge

Corporationconstructioncompany.TheZTE Corporation(Chinesegroup

specialising in telecommunications, established in 1985) is launching

intoseveralAfricancountries.

Carte 7. Migration de populations avec le retrait du Lac Tchad

ALGERIA

LIBYA EGYPT

LIBERIA

CÔTE

D'IVOIREGHANA

NIGERIA

CAMEROON

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

KENYADRC

UGANDA

MADAGASCAR

SEYCHELLES

MAURITIUS

SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE

GABON

ANGOLA

LESOTHO

TANZANIA

ZIMBABWE

ZAMBIA

SOUTHAFRICA

SWAZILAND

MOZAMBIQUEChinese Population in Africa

Population 2001, Ohio University database

Estimates 2002 to 2006Sautmann Barry V.

Less than 300

1 000

2 000 to 3 000

5 000 to 10 000

30 000


Map 4. Chinese Population in Selected African Countries

economy series

�

Migration

Historically,ChinesemigrationtoAfricagoesbacktothenineteenth

century during the “Coolie trade” when Chinese migrants worked in

theSouthAfricanminesorsugarplantationsonislandsintheIndian

Ocean. They sometimes replaced slaves that had been freed with

the abolition of the slave trade14. It is in fact in these areas that the

strongestdiasporasarefoundinAfrica(seeMap4).Overthepastfour

decades, China has sent on temporary missions between 15,000 and

20,000technicalassistantsinthemedicalsectorand10,000agricultural

specialists,amongothers.

In recent years, two new phenomena have occurred. Firstly, labour

migrationfollowsthepenetrationrateofcompanies;companies arrive

with their own site and workforce15.Partofthisworkforce,undoubtedly

a tinyminority, never returnshomeonce thework is completed and

becomespartoftheillegalimmigrantenvironment.Secondly,individual

migrationsofsmallentrepreneurs,oftentraders,restaurantowners,etc.

aredeveloping.ThismigrationoriginatesinChinaaswellasEuropean

countries,Franceinparticular.Thistrendisquiterecent.Establishedin

Africantowns,Chineseimmigrantssetupsmallbusinessesandimport

everyday consumer goods such as electronic appliances, textiles and

clothingandcompetewithlocaltraders.Socialtensionscouldflareup

betweenAfricanandAsianretailers16.HowmanyChinesepeoplenow

live in Africa? There are no reliable figures: the Chinese authorities

officially identify 78,000 workers on the continent. Other sources

estimate that the Chinese diaspora in Africa – including descendents

– could reach approximately 500,00017, including 150,000 holding a

Chinesepassport.MostcomefromthePeople’sRepublicofChinabut

therearealsoTaiwaneseandimmigrantsfromHongKongwhoarrived

beforethereintegrationoftheformerBritishenclave18.

III. Current issues

Oil

Economic recovery and the demographic weight of China demand

higher energy consumption than in the past. The structure of this

demandhistoricallydependsoncoalconsumption,forwhichChinais

theworld’sleadingproducer.Bythenextgeneration,coalconsumption

willstilldominatetheChineseenergyprofile.However, thatdoesnot

prevent the country from developing other options whether through

hydroelectricity (the construction of the Three Gorges dam19 is an

illustrationofthis),nuclearenergy,gasand...oil.Oil,whichisusedin

transportationandindustry,isthecountry’ssecondsourceofenergy.

Itsdemandhasincreasedsincethe1970s,tosuchapointthatChinahas

becomeanetimportersince1993.

In2005,Chinaisthesecondlargestconsumerofoilintheworldwith

morethan6millionbarrels/daybehindtheUS(20millionbarrels/day)

Carte 7. Migration de populations avec le retrait du Lac Tchad

14. MaMung,Emmanuel(2006)Deux migrations : l’une ouvrière, l’autre commerçante.

15. Ibid.16. Igue,John(tobepublished)

Impact de la Chine et de l’Inde sur les économies africaines : Cas du Bénin, du Burkina Faso et du Ghana.

17. Asacomparison,thereare35millionChineseimmigrantsthroughouttheworld.

18. Airault,Pascal(2006)Ils ont choisi l’Afrique.

19. TheThreeGorgesdamislocatedinthemiddleofmainlandChinaontheYangzi-JiangRiver.

10


andaheadof Japan (5millionbarrels/day).By2030, experts forecast

thatChinesedemandcouldexceed13millionbarrels/day(ofwhich80%

wouldbeimported).ThesesignificantvolumesforceChinatobemore

activediplomaticallyandeconomicallyinthepetrolsectorwithrespect

tootherconsumercountries.TheMiddleEastisthemajorsuppliertothe

Chineseeconomy.Consideringthegeopolitical tensions intheregion,

especiallysince11September2001andtheAmericanoffensiveinIraq,

Beijinghastriedtodiversify(seeMap5)andsecureitsoilimports.This

hashadasignificantimpactontheregional(CentralAsia,SouthernAsia

andRussia) and international (SouthAmericaandAfrica) geopolitical

situation.

Oil companies increase production contracts as well as prospecting

efforts,inacontextwherecurrentoilpricesenablethedevelopmentof

deepoffshoresourcesortheoperationofwellsthathadbeenconsidered

unprofitableuntilnow.AfricaisconsideredtobeanoilElDorado.With

theMiddleEastandSouthAmerica,itisoneofthe

regionswiththe largestnumberofnewsources.

Furthermore,oilfoundinAfricaisofhighquality.

EvenifstateslikeCameroonhavenorealgrowth

prospects, Sub-Saharan production, particularly

byheavyweightssuchasAngolaandNigeria,will

increase over the next few years. In addition, a

certainnumberofcountrieshaverecentlyentered

intooilproduction:Chad in2003,Mauritania in

2006.Otherswillmostprobablydosointhefuture,

suchasMaliin2008orSaoTomeby2010.

Between 1998 and 2005, Chinese imports of

African oil increased nine-fold, rising from

100,000 tomore than900,000barrels/day.This

growth is particularly strong when compared to

itstotalimportsofcrudeoilwhichonlyincreased

by3.5overthesameperiod.90%oftheseflowscomefromSub-Saharan

African countries, mainly Angola, China’s leading African supplier

(45%ofitsimports),followedbySudan(18%),theRepublicoftheCongo

(14%)andEquatorialGuinea(9%).

TheintensificationoftraderelationsbetweenChinaandSub-Saharan

oil-producingcountriesresultsfromgrowinginvestmentsbyChineseoil

companies.Theyarenowactive,tovaryingdegrees,inSudan,Angola,

Nigeria,Algeria,Gabon,Mauritania,NigerandMali(seeMap6)andcould

soonbeactiveinChad,LibyaortheCentralAfricanRepublic.TheCNPC

(ChinaNationalPetroleumCompany)isthecompanythathasinvested

most on the continent. It is present in 8 countries with a strategic

positioning in Sudan where it has a majority stake in the country’s

mainoilfields(MugladandMelut).TheSINOPECgroup(ChinaPetroleum

Corporation) has signed exploration and production agreements in

6 African countries (Algeria, Angola, Congo, Gabon, Mali and Sudan).

Finally,theCNOOC(ChinaNationalOffshoreOilCorporation),reflecting

1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

3

6

9

12

15

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

OilDependency

Production Demand Imports in % of demand

Source: International Energy Agency / OECD (2004)

Figure 4. China’s Oil Dependency 1990 to 2030

economy series

1111


AT L A N T I CO C E A N I N D I A N

O C E A N

Russian Federation

Algeria

Brazil

Venezuela

Ecuador

Argentina

Norway

LybiaEgypt

Nigeria

Gabon

EquatorialGuinea

ChadSudan

SaudiArabia

Oman

IranIraq

Indonesia

MalaisiaBrunei

VietnamThaïlande

Australia

Yemen

Congo

Angola

Source of Petroleum Importsby China (%)

MiddleEast47%

East Asia7%

West Africa28%

Latin America3%

Others5%

Russia10%

2005


© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)


AT L A N T I CO C E A N I N D I A N

O C E A N


Source of Petroleum Importsby China (%)

MiddleEast45%

East Asia41%

West Africa9%

Others5%

Russian Federation

Algeria

UnitedKingdom

Lybia

Nigeria

Gabon

SaudiArabia

Oman

Iran

Indonesia

Malaisia

Vietnam

Australia

Yemen

Congo

Angola

1995


Map 5. Chinese Oil Imports in 1995 and in 2005

1�





United States

Countries in theGulf of Guinea

ChadSudan

NorthAfrica

China Japan

EuropeanUnion

25


Petroleum flows from the African Continent*

Exports of black gold from thelarge petroleum region in Africa (2005)*

Principal regions consumingAfrican petroleum

* Data calculated in proportion to flows (see table)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

2%

2005 North Africa Gulf of Guinea Chad / Sudan

13%

8% 34% 1%

0%

9%1%

28% 0%

1% 2%Japan

European Union

United States

China

China’s ambition for offshore operations, is above all

visibleintheGulfofGuinea.Thiscompanytargetsdeep-

seaextractionwhichcouldbeprofitableover20yearsor

more. It has entered the recently discovered Akpo Field

in Nigeria. This company has invested $2.3 billion to

acquire45%ofthecapital.InFebruary2006,italsosigned

an exploration contract with Equatorial Guinea for the

offshoreSblock(seeMap6).

WestAfricaisthereforenotthecurrentmajorissuefor

China: West African oil exports only amount to 5% of

AfricanexportstoChina.However,inthelongterm,West

AfricaisattractivebecauseofreservesinNigeria,recent

operationsopenedinMauritaniaandChadandpotential

operations in the Sahelian strip confined between Chad

andMauritania.

Cotton

Since the late1980s,Chinahasbeenheavilydependent

onAmericancotton: it importsbetween40%and60%of

itsannualrequirementsfromtheUnitedStatesandmore

than75%fromtheUnitedStates,CentralAsia,WestAfrica

and Australia combined. The rest of its imports come


OCEANATLANTIQUE O C E A N

I N D I E N

Source: Petroleum companies, LEPII (2006)

Sinopec

CNPC / PetroChina

CNOOC

Australia

Indonesia

Venezuela

Ecuador

Peru

Chile

Brazil

SyriaIraq

Russia Federation

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Iran

Azerbaïdjan

SaudiArabia

Oman

Algeria

Tunisia

MauritaniaNigerMali

Nigeria

EquatorialGuinea

SudanChad

Gabon Congo

Angola


Map 6. Main Foreign Investments by Chinese Oil Companies 1995 to 2006

Map 7. Destination of African Oil Exports in 2005

economy series

1�




United States

Countries in theGulf of Guinea

ChadSudan

NorthAfrica

China Japan

EuropeanUnion

25


Petroleum flows from the African Continent*

Exports of black gold from thelarge petroleum region in Africa (2005)*

Principal regions consumingAfrican petroleum

* Data calculated in proportion to flows (see table)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

2%

2005 North Africa Gulf of Guinea Chad / Sudan

13%

8% 34% 1%

0%

9%1%

28% 0%

1% 2%Japan

European Union

United States

China

from various sources: Southern Asia

(Pakistaninparticular),SouthAmerica

(Brazil), Africa, the Middle East. West

Africa had a minor role, as in 1994,

only 2.2% of Chinese cotton imports

came from the West African region.

However, since2002,between15and

20% of Chinese cotton imports have

come from West African countries

(seeMap8).

Cotton exports from West Africa

naturally target the most dynamic

industrialzones.AsforWestAfrica,it

is estimated that in 2004 almost half

of the region’s cotton was exported

toChina(seeFigure5).In2004,morethan50%ofcottonfromBenin,

Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo was exported to China.

Moreover,almostone thirdofcotton fromCameroon,Mali andChad

wasboughtbyChinaandonly10%ofSenegaleseandNigeriancotton.

More broadly, 80% of this cotton was exported to the rest of Asia,

namely Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India. Chinese

and Asian demand has therefore contributed to restructuring cotton

tradeflows20.Overandabovetherestructuringofinternationalflows,

ChinesedemandhasincreasedWestAfricancottonexports.

Attheregionallevel,itisestimatedthatbetween2002and

2004, Chinese imports contributed to 41% of the growth

rate in farming exports for all cotton producing countries

put together.Morebroadly,Chinese importscontributed to

2.5%of thegrowth rateof total exportsand to1.1%of the

economicgrowthrateofcotton-producingcountries.Among

thecountries,themostvisiblemacroeconomicimpactsarein

Benin,BurkinaFaso,MaliandTogo.Chinesecottonimports

contributedto7%oftheeconomicgrowthrateinthesefour

countries.

Accordingtocurrentoutlooks,Chinesedemandforcotton

andChinesecotton importsshouldremainhighuntil2010.

Givenitskeypositionontheinternationalmarket,Chinaplays

afundamentalroleindeterminingthelevelof international

prices.Growth inChinese imports seems tohave increased

pricesintheshorttermoverthepasttwotothreeyears.Is

thissituationsustainable?WillWestAfricabenefitfromthis

new configuration? Very recently, Michel Fok highlighted

that “The cotton world is now very attentive to the impact

China has on the development of rules governing transaction

contracts. This country is currently setting out its own rules

without completely following the Liverpool rules. Considering

20. Formoreinformationonthissubject,seethecottonchapterintheAtlasonRegionalIntegrationinWestAfrica.


OCEANATLANTIQUE O C E A N

I N D I E N

Source: Petroleum companies, LEPII (2006)

Sinopec

CNPC / PetroChina

CNOOC

Australia

Indonesia

Venezuela

Ecuador

Peru

Chile

Brazil

SyriaIraq

Russia Federation

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Iran

Azerbaïdjan

SaudiArabia

Oman

Algeria

Tunisia

MauritaniaNigerMali

Nigeria

EquatorialGuinea

SudanChad

Gabon Congo

Angola


Map 7. Destination of African Oil Exports in 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Others

West Africa

United States

Million of US dollars

Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD

Figure 5. Origin of Chinese Cotton Imports 1989 to 2004

1�


that it is a major destination for West African cotton,

countries in that region should be extremely attentive

to this development”21.

Theotherissueislinkedtotheimpactofcompetition

fromChinesetextileexportsontheWestAfricantextile

sector:Chinese textile exports have harmed industries

in Lesotho, Swaziland, Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, South

Africa, and Morocco. Since the surge in Chinese textile

imports began in 2003, South Africa lost 55,000 jobs in

the industry by the end of 2005. More than ten clothing

factories closed in Swaziland, forcing 12,000 employees

out of work. There were another 13,000 job losses in

Lesotho. Low-cost Chinese textile and other consumer

imports also devastated consumer product industries

in several Nigerian cities22.

But it seems important to put this impact into

perspective.InWestAfrica,textileimportscomefrom

otherregionsoftheworld,notcountingthemarketin

second-handclothescomingfromtheEuropeanUnion.

And,asparadoxicalasitmayseem,acertainnumber

ofChinese economicoperatorshave invested in the

Africantextileindustry.Forexample,inWestAfrica,

inthefourtextileindustriesoperatinginGhana,two

belong toChinesegroups. Likewise, inBenin,of the

three industriescurrentlyoperating, twoare funded

byChinese companies.Could thisbe indicativeof a

trendthatwillbeconfirmedinthefuture?

Inanycase,negotiationsbetweenChinaandAfricancountrieswillbe

importantforthefutureoftheWestAfricancotton-producingandtextile

sectors.TheforumonChina/Africacooperationcouldbethevenuefor

suchnegotiations.Recently,ChinapledgedtosupporttheWestAfrican

cotton-textile industry through technology transfers to “help these

countries increase

the volume of their

cottonproductionand

develop their cotton

industry.” Within

this context, China

“will open clothing

production plants

and textile processing

centresinseveralWest

African countries.”23

Could this episode

be the first sign of

a change in Chinese

strategyinAfrica?

Source : Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006) © Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

China's Cotton Imports in 1994 China's Cotton Imports in 20043.1 billion of US dollars

United States56.7%

Central Asia11.4%

Australia5.6%

West Africa18.1%

Africa (others)2.6%

Others5.6%

0.9 billion of US dollars

United States63.2%

Central Asia10.1%

Australia8.5%

West Africa2.2%

Africa (others)7.2%

Others8.8%

CENTRALASIA

UNITEDSTATES

WESTAFRICA

WESTAFRICAAFRICA

(others)

CHINA CHINA

AUSTRALIA

CENTRALASIA

UNITEDSTATES

AFRICA(others)

AUSTRALIA

1994 2004

Map 8. Chinese Cotton Imports in 1994 and in 2004

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Benin BurkinaFaso

Cameroon Côted'Ivoire

Ghana Mali Nigeria Senegal Chad Togo

China Rest of the World

Millions of US dollars


Figure 6. Destination of Cotton Exports from West African Countries in 2004

21. Fok,Michel(2005)Coton africain et marché mondial : une distorsion peut en cacher une autre plus importante.

22. Shinn,DavidH.(2006)Africa and China’s Global Activism, p.3.

23. AllAfrica.com:Afriquedel’Ouest:Coton,laChineprometsonappuiàl’Afriquedel’ouest,8novembre2006.

economy series

1�

IV. Future issues

Oilandcottonwillremainkeyissuesatthecore

ofSino-Africanrelationsinthecomingdecades.

However,theywillnotbetheonlyissuesatplay.

It isalreadypossible todiscern tensionon the

worldsteelandaluminium(bauxite)market.

More generally, the African continent will

undoubtedly remain an attractive market

showingconstantgrowth(ifonlyindemographic

terms) for Chinese manufactured products.

The risk of a growing “invasion” of competing

importsorimportspreventingthedevelopment

oflocalindustryshouldthereforebetakeninto

account. To balance this, two factors could

encourage Chinese investors to finance West

African industry: firstly, the increase in sea

transportationcostsshouldprogressivelyfavour

the creation of primary processing units in

particular(iron,bauxite).Secondly,theprospect

oftheEconomicPartnershipAgreements(EPAs)

betweenAfricanregionsandtheEuropeanUnion

should encourage Chinese industrialists (but

also Indian, Brazilian, etc.) to produce within

these regions in order to gain access to the

European market. The ECOWAS zone is, from

thisperspective,particularlywell-positionedas

itoffersthreeadvantages:geographicproximity

toEurope,availabilityofrawmaterials(cotton,iron,bauxite,etc.)anda

moreavailable,abundantandlow-costworkforcethaninNorthAfrica,

forexample.Ifthishypothesisisproven,itisprobablethatcountries

with non-convertible currency (Ghana, Nigeria, etc.) will be more

attractivethancountriesinthefranc/eurozonewhereproductioncosts

arehigher.Politicalandgeo-strategicconsiderationswillundoubtedly

continuetohaveanimpactandwillprobablypartlycompensateforthis

bias.Whateverhappens,manyAfricanleadersseetheChineseirruption

ontheircontinentasaneconomicopportunity–“whatifdevelopment

came from the East?”-, doubled by a political opportunity – “What if

Africabecameastrategicissue,itcouldleavetheeraofsubmissionto

goforwardintotheeraofnegotiation.”

Source : Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006) © Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006

China's Cotton Imports in 1994 China's Cotton Imports in 20043.1 billion of US dollars

United States56.7%

Central Asia11.4%

Australia5.6%

West Africa18.1%

Africa (others)2.6%

Others5.6%

0.9 billion of US dollars

United States63.2%

Central Asia10.1%

Australia8.5%

West Africa2.2%

Africa (others)7.2%

Others8.8%

CENTRALASIA

UNITEDSTATES

WESTAFRICA

WESTAFRICAAFRICA

(others)

CHINA CHINA

AUSTRALIA

CENTRALASIA

UNITEDSTATES

AFRICA(others)

AUSTRALIA

1994 2004

Map 8. Chinese Cotton Imports in 1994 and in 2004

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