ecosystem-based adaptation in the pacific: imperatives and
TRANSCRIPT
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Ecosystem-based Adaptation in the Pacific:Imperatives and Challenges
Stuart ChapeActing Deputy Director General – Strategic Policy and Technical Programmes
Director Island and Ocean Ecosystems
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NbS: an umbrella concept that supports the achievement of society’s development goals and addresses essential needs of human well‐being, such as food security, risk reduction, access to clean water, or health.
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Categories of Nature‐based Solutions approaches and examples
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Ecosystem‐based Adaptation to climate change (EbA)
The use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.It aims to maintain and increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of the adverse effects of climate change
(CBD 2009 & 2010)
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Challenges
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2018 top global risks linked to climate change, biodiversity loss, food and water security, man‐made disastersWEF 2018. Global Risks Report
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Climate action undertaken so far is inconsistent with the SDGs. Difference between warming 1.5°C and 2°C is fundamental. 1.5°C ‐ lower water stress, less intense rainfall during tropical cyclones, less exposure
to irreversible sea level rise. At 1.5°C some coral reefs will be able adapt, while at 2°C their chances of survival are
next‐to‐none, and fisheries and livelihoods that depend on them will be irrevocably damaged.
Holding warming to 1.50C throughout 21st century is feasible. But lack of real commitment to ambitious action from Governments and non‐state actors.
Current Government commitments (NDCs) are not sufficient and will not achieve theParis Agreement’s warming limit of 1.5oC
Phase out use of coal to ZERO by 2050
2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
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CBD Biodiversity Targets
CBD Biodiversity Targets
SAMOA PathwaySAMOA Pathway
SDGsSDGs
PARIS AGREEMENT
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Non‐Climate Change Drivers Climate Change Drivers
Lower Capacity for Resilience
Lower Capacity for Resilience
Must Address Non‐Climate Change and Climate Change Issues Together
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11
Increasing Population Pressures and Urbanisation+50% region’s population is now urban
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Unsustainable Exploitation of Forest Resources:Impacts on freshwater supplies, flooding and coastal ecosystems
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Loss of mangroves and coastal ecosystems: poor development planning contradicts policies, national vulnerability assessments and coastal plans
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Impacts of mining
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Pollution and waste management impacts ecosystems, species and human health
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Population growth and fish needed 2010‐2030in urban and rural areas
Bell et al 2011
Increasing Food Security Vulnerability
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Fiji February 2016: Extreme Sea Temperatures
Major fish die‐off
El Niño Events
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Climate Change Impacts in the Pacific Islands Region
Source: Albert et al 2013
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Solomon Islands
Sea Level Rise
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Future?The
Future?
Increasing SST Ocean Acidification
“…even under good management…coral cover is expected to decrease from the present‐day maximum of 40% to 15‐30% by 2035 and 10‐20% by 2050, matching the rate of decline over the past 30 years.” (Bell et al 2013)
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Climate change and non-climate change issues
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Imperatives and Opportunities
© Stuart Chape
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Current CCA Responses and Development Planning Often Piecemeal Contradictory Duplicative Reinforce poor planning and
development decisions Sectorally based Short term planning and project
horizons Infrastructure focused when
other choices are available Business as usual re
environmental exploitation and loss of ecosystem services
Paradigm ShiftImprove, identify and/or apply: Climate science Ecosystem service
values & opportunities at multiple scales
Integrated sectoral futures planning and scenario building
Build on lessons learned Implement through long
term funding and capacity building
Outcomes Integrated CCA
responses across all ecological and social systems and governance sectors
Development and adaptation decisions based on long term analysis and planning
Continually improve CC science and analysis
Key ecosystems and their services valued and maintained as basis for adaptation and transformative action.
Need for a Paradigm Shift in Approach CC Adaptation Responses
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Understand the Options and Economic, Social and Ecological Implications of Adaptation and Development Choices
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Malé, Maldives
Sea wall around Malé* cost $54 million, or $12.4 million per km. Maldives has 2,002 km coastline – seawall $24.8 billion enterprise. Based on annual GDP, it would take more than three decades to raise the funds* Population: 142,909 (2017) Median age: 28.2 Area: 9.27 km2
High Cost of Infrastructure Solutions
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Bayou Dupont: June 2014 Bayou Dupont: June 2015
Louisiana coastal ecosystem restoration, USA: 50‐year US$50 billion plan
High Cost of Ecosystem Restoration
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Best first principle:Maintain healthy functioning ecosystems and their services for as long as possible as a basis for adaptation and sustainable development
© Stuart Chape
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Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Service Values
Source: MACBIO Project (2014 values)
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Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Service Loss of Values
Source: MACBIO Project (2014 values)
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• Managing predicted extreme risks into the longer term requires a continuous and transformative process, rather than one that is intermittent and incremental (Hay et al 2018) It will require building on, but going beyond, current NAP and NDC processes to transformational action “at a scale and ambition greater than incremental activities”(5th IPCC Report 2014)
Need to focus on opportunities provided by protecting and restoring ecosystem services that underpin national development and community livelihoods and food security
Key Considerations
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Need societal commitment supported by effective, visionary leadership
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Avoid simple solutions just because they seem easy
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2019 2050 2100
Best options for adaptation to climate change Capacity to take transformational action Food security – fisheries, agriculture Productive economy – tourism, commercial fisheries Water security and other ecosystem services Healthy living space – sustainable cities Sustainable development opportunities Sustainable energy
NEED TO PLAN & ACT NOW!
+1.50C? 2.00C?
Looking to an Adaptive and Sustainable Pacific Future: Where do we want to be?
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Strengthening Resilience and Capacity to Adapt and Transform:Policy to Implementation and Working at Relevant Temporal and Spatial Scales
National policy implementation
Sub‐national policy implementation
Community engagement
Country‐wide integrated planning
Whole‐of‐island integrated planning, ridge to reef approach, watershed management, etc
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The imperative of a future for youth
Median age: 20‐24 in 11 PICs
Proportion of population 0‐15 yrs old: 35%‐40% in 8 PICs
(UNFPA 2014)
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Thank You!
© Stuart Chape