ecosystem modeling framework for quantitative seascape ecology supporting ecosystem assessment and...
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Habitat Workshop - March 1 & 2, 2012
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Ecosystem Modeling Framework For Quantitative Seascape
Ecology Supporting Ecosystem Assessment and Management
Howard TownsendNOAA/NMFS/OHC/Chesapeake Bay
Robert GambleNOAA/NMFS/NEFSC/ EcoAP
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How and When to Use Models: Adaptive Management
1. Identify the problem (a management question or an ecological hypothesis)
2. Use existing data to develop a first cut model of the system
3. Collect relevant data4. Refine models with data5. Apply model to the problem6. Assess utility of model to solve problem, and refine (the
problem, the data, and/or the model)7. Repeat steps 3-6 until the problem is sufficiently resolved
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Example: How and When to Use Models
1. Chesapeake Blue Catfish
2. NE US Atlantis example
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Chesapeake Bay – Blue Catfish• Applied fisheries ecosystem models (using EwE) to generate
quantitative estimates of the impacts of BCF on other species. This is first attempt to assimilate our knowledge on BCFs in the ecosystem (step 2).
• Ran management scenarios to understand how fisheries and water quality management can be used to regulate BCF (steps 5-6).
• Used ecosystem model to guide research and monitoring directions (steps 3-4).
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Identify a problem and model
• Baseline Scenario– Hypothetically maintain
status quo in current fishing regulations and effort
– 20-yr projection of changes in Biomass of key species
• Baseline Major Impacts– White Perch– Alosines– Blue Crabs– Striped Bass– Croaker
% Biomass Change, SQ: Status Quo
Striped Bass
White PerchAlosines
Menhaden
Blue Crab Blue Catfish
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Apply Model and Assess Utility
• Increasing exploitation rates had little affect on blue catfish populations.• An overwhelming control of the system through different levels of nutrient inputs.• Perhaps habitat has more of an influence than fishing?
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Refine Model – Include habitat and seascape/water quality
Longer Term…Finer spatial scale evaluation of BCF in the Chesapeake Bay system. Model would be completed using the Ecospace option within EwE.
Ecospace model could provide…-Spatially specific predator and prey interactions.-Better understanding impacts of BCF impacts on anadromous species. -Opportunity to include current research for more precise parameterization of the CBFEM.-Recommendations on where tributary specific removal campaigns may be effectively applied.
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Model Structure
0
50
120+
300+
Sediment
Epibenthic
Pelagic
Northeast United States – (22, 8)
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Model Structure
45 Functional Groups
18 Fishing fleets(based on gear and target species)
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Habitat Parameters
Benthic• Depth (determines number of layers)• Bottom type (scallop, other bivalves, reef, flat, soft, canyon)• Patchiness of bottom type• How resistant to damage from fishing the bottom is
Oceanographic• Temperature (time series, or modeled)• Salinity (time series, or modeled)• Current flows (average flows per unit time across box edges)
Biological• Nutrients (locations of high concentration, changes over time)
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Habitat Usage In the Model
Habitat types:• Fisheries can be flagged to avoid any of the habitat types• Functional groups prefer specific habitat types (juveniles or adults)• Effects of degradation can be simulated• Effects of closures for habitat types can be simulated
Nutrients:• Location and magnitude affects primary productivity and food web effects in the model• Effects of lower or higher nutrient levels can be simulated
Temperature and Salinity:• Climate change effects can be simulated, with regards to distribution and abundance of functional groups
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Habitat Time & Spatial Scales
Temporal Scales: • Any time step permitted, but generally done at half day to daily scales
Spatial Scales: • Generally 10’s – 1000’s km2 dependent on scale important to the functional groups and fisheries
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ATLANTIS NEUS – Example
Effects of closing eastern portion of Georges Bank
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Mackerel
Herring
White Hake
Bluefish
Other demersal flatfish
Large pelagics
Migratory mesopelagics
Other pelagics
Goosefish
Anadromous small pelagics
Cod
Silver Hake
Other demersals
Haddock
YT
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Squid
Scallops
Other benthic filter feeders
Benthic herbivorous grazers
Lobster
Shallow macrozoobenthos
Prawns
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42The answer is… *
What was the question?
* D. Thought, personal communicatiom
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Useful Ecosystem Modeling Frameworks
• Existing software (code base) packages– Ecopath with Ecosim– Atlantis
• Made from scratch– BSIERP– Others