ecosystem services and futures thinking: two brave initiatives barney foran steve cork stuart...
TRANSCRIPT
Ecosystem Services and Futures Thinking: Two Brave InitiativesBarney ForanSteve CorkStuart PearsonJason Alexandra
Ecosystem services“Benefits people get from nature”
LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Provisioning•FOOD•FRESH WATER•WOOD AND FIBRE•FUEL• …
Regulating•CLIMATE REGULATION•FLOOD MITIGATION•DISEASE REGULATION•WATER PURIFICATION
• …
Cultural•AESTHETIC•SPIRITUAL•EDUCATIONAL•RECREATIONAL
• …
Supporting•NUTRIENT CYCLING•SOIL FORMATION•PRIMARY PRODUCTION•…
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Provisioning•FOOD•FRESH WATER•WOOD AND FIBRE•FUEL• …
Regulating•CLIMATE REGULATION•FLOOD MITIGATION•DISEASE REGULATION•WATER PURIFICATION
• …
Cultural•AESTHETIC•SPIRITUAL•EDUCATIONAL•RECREATIONAL
• …
Supporting•NUTRIENT CYCLING•SOIL FORMATION•PRIMARY PRODUCTION•…
Case study: The Goulburn Broken Catchment
Da
iry
Fru
it a
nd
gra
pe
s
Ve
geta
ble
s
Gra
zin
g
Cro
ps
Inte
nsiv
e a
nim
als
Fo
restr
y
Fo
od
pro
ce
ssin
g
Ho
usin
g
Wa
ter
pro
du
ctio
n
Re
cre
atio
n
Cu
ltu
re/
bio
div
ers
ity
Pollination
Life-fulfillment
Climate regulation
Pest control
Genetic resources
Habitat regeneration
Shade and shelter
Soil health
Healthy waterways
Water filtration
River regulation
Waste absorption
SE
RV
ICE
SLAND-USES
Total P runoff
total pasture yield
SMI
effective rainfall
+supplement DM
pasture area
max annualproduction
+B
salinity
stocking rate
groundwatertable depth
-
location of habitatdiversity of habitat
annual rate ofincrease
annual rate ofdecrease by
pumping
+
-
MEI
ME of food
+
-
% available forconsumption
max voluntaryintake
pasture per cow+
+
+
pasture intake+
+
MEI for maxmilk prod
food intake (MEI)
+
-
area of naturalhabitat
+
Biodiversity Value
max depth
+
Total milkingarea
percent pasturetype
+
actual milking area
-
+
food deficit
CNo
Annual rain
Irrigation ML
Carbon store tC
SR effect on C
Saline area
area at risk ofsalinity
Total food per cow
% supplement type
Rate runoff Re use efficiency
P factor
pasture grazed
Available P
N factor
No irrigations
Available N
milk per cow
max milk per cow
milk reduction dueto temp stress
CO2 discharge
methanedischarge
milk production
P runoff Dung
P runoff fert
P runoff rain
Total Nleached/runoff
N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide
<volatilisation>
Total P runoff
total pasture yield
SMI
effective rainfall
+supplement DM
pasture area
max annualproduction
+B
salinity
stocking rate
groundwatertable depth
-
location of habitatdiversity of habitat
annual rate ofincrease
annual rate ofdecrease by
pumping
+
-
MEI
ME of food
+
-
% available forconsumption
max voluntaryintake
pasture per cow+
+
+
pasture intake+
+
MEI for maxmilk prod
food intake (MEI)
+
-
area of naturalhabitat
+
Biodiversity Value
max depth
+
Total milkingarea
percent pasturetype
+
actual milking area
-
+
food deficit
CNo
Annual rain
Irrigation ML
Carbon store tC
SR effect on C
Saline area
area at risk ofsalinity
Total food per cow
% supplement type
Rate runoff Re use efficiency
P factor
pasture grazed
Available P
N factor
No irrigations
Available N
milk per cow
max milk per cow
milk reduction dueto temp stress
CO2 discharge
methanedischarge
milk production
P runoff Dung
P runoff fert
P runoff rain
Total Nleached/runoff
N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide
<volatilisation>
total pasture yield
SMI
effective rainfall
+supplement DM
pasture area
max annualproduction
+B
salinity
stocking rate
groundwatertable depth
-
location of habitatdiversity of habitat
annual rate ofincrease
annual rate ofdecrease by
pumping
+
-
MEI
ME of food
+
-
% available forconsumption
max voluntaryintake
pasture per cow+
+
+
pasture intake+
+
MEI for maxmilk prod
food intake (MEI)
+
-
area of naturalhabitat
+
Biodiversity Value
max depth
+
Total milkingarea
percent pasturetype
+
actual milking area
-
+
food deficit
CNo
Annual rain
Irrigation ML
Carbon store tC
SR effect on C
Saline area
area at risk ofsalinity
Total food per cow
% supplement type
Rate runoff Re use efficiency
P factor
pasture grazed
Available P
N factor
No irrigations
Available N
milk per cow
max milk per cow
milk reduction dueto temp stress
CO2 discharge
methanedischarge
milk production
total pasture yield
SMI
effective rainfall
+supplement DM
pasture area
max annualproduction
+B
salinity
stocking rate
groundwatertable depth
-
location of habitatdiversity of habitat
annual rate ofincrease
annual rate ofdecrease by
pumping
+
-
MEI
ME of food
+
-
% available forconsumption
max voluntaryintake
pasture per cow+
+
+
pasture intake+
+
MEI for maxmilk prod
food intake (MEI)
+
-
area of naturalhabitat
+
Biodiversity Value
max depth
+
Total milkingarea
percent pasturetype
+
actual milking area
-
+
food deficit
CNo
Annual rain
Irrigation ML
Carbon store tC
SR effect on C
Saline area
area at risk ofsalinity
Total food per cow
% supplement type
Rate runoff Re use efficiency
P factor
pasture grazed
Available P
N factor
No irrigations
Available N
milk per cow
max milk per cow
milk reduction dueto temp stress
CO2 discharge
methanedischarge
milk production
P runoff Dung
P runoff fert
P runoff rain
Total Nleached/runoff
N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide
<volatilisation>
Legacies
Rainforest CRC
Sustainable EcosystemsEntomology
Land and WaterForestry and Forest Products
Plant Industry
The Sidney Myer Centenary Celebration 1899-1999
Legacies
• New thinking• Awareness• Informed dialogue• Spawned many
research projects• Encouraged uptake
in policy• Ongoing role for LWA
to the end
Futures program
• Grew from Redesigning Agriculture for Australian Landscapes (RAAL)
• Invested in “futures research”
• Supported several other programs
• Morphed into Innovationand Strategic Analysis programs
Futures program
“Isn’t a good chat over a glass of red just as good?”
Control→
Cert
ain
ty→ Rules
HedgingOptimal control
OptionsAdaptive
management
Possibilities
Plan for surprise
Uncertainty and decision-making
Focal question
Which factors are most important and uncertain?
What factorsmight influencethe future?
Scenarios or other tests of logic
Strategic decisions
Implications
What is “futures
research”?
Example project areas
• Scenario planning (e.g., Goulburn Broken, Future Woolscapes, LWA)
• Innovative technologies (e.g., biofuels, envisioning landscapes)
• Emerging challenges (e.g., endocrine disrupters, per-iurban development, future governance …)
Legacies
LegaciesMurrumbidgee
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Australian Meat Industry Avocados Australia Regional Development Victoria
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Australian Meat Industry Avocados Australia Regional Development Victoria
Namoi
Legacies
Louise Osbourne
Stuart Pearson
Legacies
• 4 ex LWA staff• 1 ex LWA consultant• Many past LWA
clients• 10 agencies in
across Australia and New Zealand
People
