UNFCCC secretariat, Adaptation ProgrammeJoanna Post, Programme Management Officer

ECVs and the UNFCCC

Copernicus GA28-30 October 2019

Outline

• The Convention and the Paris Agreement – “based on the best available science”

• How is scientific knowledge integrated with the UNFCCC policymaking process?

• ECVs and mitigation

• ECVs and adaptation planning and implementation

• ECVs and global stocktake

How is scientific knowledge integrated with the UNFCCC policymaking process?

Observations Research Assessment PolicyNational

Global

UNFCCC Convention

Article 4 – promote and cooperate SO, Research, data exchange…

Article 5 – support and develop programmes / networks and strengthen efforts..

Research and systematic observation under SBSTA - point of entry for information on activities / regional workshops and identification of opportunities / requirements / needs

Policy

SBSTA (Science &

Review)

• Systematic observation

(Earth Information Day)

• Research(Research dialogue)

• Review of the Long-term global goal

CC impacts planning & monitoringOther services

Global carbon budget, SLR, EEI

Assess progress on implementation of the Paris Agreement

Climate system and climate change

Observation

• WMO

• GCOS

• CEOS

• GEO

Research

• WCRP

• IAMC

• IOC

• Future Earth

• WASP (PROVIA)

Assessment

• IPCC

Workstreams

Mitigation Adaptation

Loss & Damage

NDCs NAPs

Reports

ECVs, Climate data records, climate indicators

Climate services

• GFCS

• GEO

• Copernicus

AR6SR1.5SROC

CSRCC

L

SLCF

GCOS Implementation Plan (COP Decision 19/CP.22)ECVs, Climate indicators, regional workshops, building capacity in developing countriesCEOS/CGMS Working Group on Climate response to GCOS IPECV Inventory, optimum GHG monitoring constellation WMO State of the global climate, GHG Bulletin, IG3IS, GFCS, Country support initiative on closing the capacity gapCollaboration between WMO/UNFCCC inc. regional centres

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Paris Agreement | From “policy driving policy” to “science driving policy” and “policy driving science”

Reports

COP/CMA

Global stocktake

(2023, 2028 …)

How does the Paris Agreement work?

Progress reports

(every 2 y)

Global stocktake (2023 => every 5 y)

Recom-mendations

Higher national ambition

National targets

(NDC) (2020 => every

5 y)

Limit global warming to well below +2/1.5 degrees C

Increase ability to adapt, resilience, low GHG development

ECVs vital to support the Paris Agreement bottom-up, pledge and review architecture

How does the Paris Agreement integrate science?

Best available science

Taking stock of progress

Adaptation action

Rapid reductions in

GHG emissions

Support decision-making

Inform climate services

Research, observation,

early warning systems

Cooperation to share

knowledge

EO support for assessing progress: Mitigation

• All Parties submit their first biennial transparency report by end of 2024 (LDCs and SIDs submit at their discretion) – together and flexible

• Reporting on action - reducing the uncertainties of national GHG inventories (IG3IS, land use, REDD+, ?blue carbon?)

• Working with statistical offices on inventories and indicators• Increasing mitigation ambition:

• Estimating emissions in cities and identifying opportunities for further reductions

• Estimating emissions of specific sectors and identifying opportunities for further reductions

Decision 18/CMA.1Paragraph 66. Mitigation indicators could include• Net GHG emissions and removals, percentage reduction of GHG intensity, relevant

qualitative indicators for a specific policy or measure, mitigation co-benefits of adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans or other (e.g. hectares of reforestation, percentage of renewable energy use or production, carbon neutrality, share of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption and non-GHG related indicators).

Assist countries reduce uncertainties to provide accurate GHG inventories (PA 13.7) and long-term low GHG emission development strategies (PA 4.19)

How is science integrated in adaptation planning and implementation?

• Process to formulate and implement national adaptation plans (NAPs)a) Objectives:

• To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience

• To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate

• Be guided by best available scienceb) Support

• Technical guidelines by LEG and additional supplementary guidelines

• Funding of up to USD 3 million from GCF for formulation

ECVs assists countries plan for and track adaptation (PA 7.10-14)

Element A: Laying the groundwork and addressing gaps• Initiating and launching of the NAP process• Stocktaking: identifying available information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

and assessing gaps and needs of the enabling environment for the NAP process• Addressing capacity gaps and weaknesses in undertaking the NAP process• Comprehensively and iteratively assessing development needs and climate vulnerabilities

Element B: Preparatory Elements• Analysing current climate and future climate change scenarios• Assessing climate vulnerabilities and identifying adaptation options at the sector, subnational,

national and other appropriate levels• Reviewing and appraising adaptation options• Compiling and communicating national adaptation plans• Integrating climate change adaptation into national and subnational development and sectoral planning

Element C: Implementation Strategy• Prioritizing climate change adaptation in national planning• Developing a (long-term) national adaptation implementation strategy• Enhancing capacity for planning and implementing adaptation• Promoting coordination and synergy at the regional level and with other multilateral environmental agreements

Element D: Reporting, Monitoring and Review• Monitoring the NAP process • Reviewing the NAP process to assess progress, effectiveness and gaps• Iteratively updating the national adaptation plans• Outreach on the NAP process and reporting on progress and effectiveness

How is science integrated in adaptation planning and implementation?

Example

ECVs are used to frame the national context with respect to climate change.

Use of precipitation data from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) used to characterise rainfall regimes in Ethiopia and tie seasonal patterns with global circulation systems, specifically the ITCZ.

Data from the NMA analysed with GeoCLIM tools to identify a pattern of decreasing annual rainfall over Ethiopia

CMIP5 used to project variability in precipitation per region under different RCPs

Regional temperature data obtained from the National Meteorological Services Agency and analysed with Geo CLIM Tools.

NMA station data analysed to observe increasing temperature trend.

CIMP5 models project an increasing temperature in all national regions

Reviews of the implementation process

18 Adaptation priorities inc enhancing food security, inc access to potable water, natural resource management, water harvesting, improve health systems…

How is science integrated in adaptation planning and implementation?

• Gaps and needs by developing countries as identified by LEG and AC

a) Climate scenarios, science, translation to local context• Capacity of national, sub-national and sector experts to work

effectively with climate data and climate change scenarios in adaptation planning and decision-making

• Availability and accessibility of climate data and climate change scenarios to underpin effective adaptation planning and implementation, taking into account the specific needs at the national, subnational and sectoral level

b) Risk and vulnerability assessment and risk management• Capacity to develop, analyse, and define baselines• Capacity to undertake comprehensive risk and vulnerability

assessments covering all key sectors and systems at the national, subnational and sectoral level

Decision 19/CMA.1 Global stocktake 2021-2023

1. Information collection and preparation(Dec 2021/June 2022 until May 2023):

- SBSTA/SBI joint contact group- Sources of input (19/CMA.1, para 37)- Information will come from Parties (voluntary and mandated), IPCC, CBs/forums, UN

agencies, NPS and UNFCCC observers organizations, Regional groups and institutions

2. Technical assessment(2-3 sessions before CMA 6 = June/Nov 2022) and Technical dialogue

3. Consideration of outputs (CMA 6, 2023)-> Enhancing efforts, challenges, good practices, and political messages

CMA considers to refine logistical and procedural elements after each GST, 19/CMA.1, para 15

GST Mandate suggests a broad approach - inclusive, Inspirational, motivational, and Impactful

Global climate indicators

• Parties identify national indicators – as previously stated – in their NDCs• How will this be matched to global progress

• What should global indicators be? GCOS IP - provide climate indicators – historical indicators already recognized by UNFCCC process – and reported in WMO statement on the state of the climateIPCC working towards GST support in AR6

Summary

• Research and systematic observation under SBSTA - point of entry for information on activities / regional workshops and identification of opportunities / requirements / needs

• ECVs vital to support the Paris Agreement bottom-up, pledge and review architecture

• ECVs assists countries reduce uncertainties to provide accurate GHG inventories (PA 13.7) and long-term low GHG emission development strategies (PA 4.19)

• ECVs assists countries track adaptation (PA 7.10-14)• GST Mandate suggests a broad approach - inclusive, Inspirational,

motivational, and Impactful

• Important to have consistency in base lines / methodologies open access and quality control

• We need to also consider linking process with other variables also: • Essential biosphere / biological / ecosystem variables• Essential socio-economic variables

Thank you!