edat 17 december 2014 local demographic trends – an older and ageing population andy cornelius...
TRANSCRIPT
EDAT17 December 2014
Local demographic trends –An older and ageing population
Andy CorneliusCorporate Research & Consultation Team
Presentation structure1. The ‘current’ position• Age structure / differences across district• Characteristics of our older population
2. The future – according to ONS• What the latest official population projections are showing
Part 1: The current situation• What the census and other local data tells us…
Total population…
262,800Usual residents
Latest estimate (2013) = 269,100 (+6,300)
Broad age structure (2011)…
…Compared to national average…
Age
Age 20-30 yrs-2% average
Age 40-50 yrs+1% average
Age 13-18 yrs+0.5% average
Age
Age 20-30 yrs-2% average
Age 40-50 yrs+1% average
Age 13-18 yrs+0.5% average
65yrs +
Age
South GloucestershireTotal pop: 262.8KMedian age: 40% 65yrs+ : 17%
Age
Alveston (parish)Total pop: 3,000Median age: 51% 65yrs+ : 30%
Age
Bradley Stoke (parish)Total pop: 21,000Median age: 32% 65yrs + : 5%
Age
Some characteristics of our older population…• Accommodation and living arrangements• Health and care
Accommodation and living arrangements…
Accommodation…
97% Of people aged 65yrs+ live in households
Living arrangements…44,400
% p
opul
ation
Age
Living arrangements…44,400
% p
opul
ation
Age
20,400
Living arrangements…
12,300 people aged 65+ live alone
QS110EW
Living arrangements…
11.4% of houses* are occupied by a single
person aged 65+QS110EW & KS401EW *household spaces
% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs (older lone person HH)
QS110EW & KS401EW
% h
ouse
hold
s
Ward
% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs
QS110EW & KS401EW
17.3%
2.6%
% h
ouse
hold
s
Ward
Health & care….
Health & care….• The likelihood of being disabled and receiving care increases with age …..
Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)
Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)
Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)
Carers….
27,639 Residents provide unpaid care* for someone - 10.5% of total population
(national average 10.3%)* Help or support to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of either:
Long-term physical or mental ill-health / disability?Problems relating to old age?
% to
tal p
opul
ation
Part 2: Looking forward…• What the latest official (ONS) population projections suggest….
ONS Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs)
• Produced by ONS every two years
• Long term (25yr horizon)
• Official government population projections for local authority areas
• Used for wide range of purposes
• ‘Policy-off’ projections - based on recent trends in• Births• Deaths• Migration
2012 SNPPs for South Gloucestershire….
Total population change….
Pop
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
2012
2037Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037
Popu
latio
n
Year
2037
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
(+20%)
2037
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
By local authority…..
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
East Midlands East London N E North West South East South West West Mid. York & Humber
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
City of London (+45%)
Isles of Scilly (- 13%)
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+20%)52.3k
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+20%)52.3kNorth Som.
(+24%)+48.6k
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+20%)52.3kBristol
(+22%)+95.6k
North Som. (+24%)+48.6k
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+20%)52.3kBristol
(+22%)+95.6k
North Som. (+24%)+48.6k
BANES. (+12%)+21.5K
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
218,000 more people living in the West of England by 2037
There will be:
Population aged 65+…
Total population change (%) – 2012-37
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
Milton Keynes (+129%)
Isle of Scilly (+0%)
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+69%)32.0k
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+69%)32.0k
North Som. (+71%)+31.8k
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+69%)32.0k
North Som. (+71%)+31.8k
BANES. (+53%)+17.3K
Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37
South Glos. (+69%)32.0k
Bristol (+49%)+27.9k
North Som. (+71%)+31.8k
BANES. (+53%)+17.3K
101,000 more people aged 65yrs + living in the West of England by 2037
There will be:
What’s projected to drive population change…
What’s projected to drive population change…
• Components of change• Natural Change
• Births minus deaths
• Migration• International• Internal (to and from other areas of England)• Cross-border (to and from other countries in UK – Wales, Scotland, N. Ireland)
For South Gloucestershire (total population)….
(+20%)
2037
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
(+20%)
2037
2012
Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po
pula
tion
Year
Total annual population increase (net)+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
2,300 PA
+ pe
rson
s pe
r yea
r
Year
Total annual population increase (net)
2,300 PA
1,900 PA
+ pe
rson
s pe
r yea
r
Year
Total annual population increase (net)
+ pe
rson
s pe
r yea
r
Year
Total annual population increase (net)
Natural change (Births – deaths)+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
Migration: International migration+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
Migration: Cross-border flows (moves to / from other UK countries)+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
Migration: Internal (moves to / from English LAs)+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
Total annual (net) change+
pers
ons
per y
ear
Year
Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….
Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….• 25 years ago (1987)
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
213,700Po
pula
tion
Age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
12% 21%
67%
213,700Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
12% 21%
67%
TDR: 47% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 47 ‘dependents’)
213,700Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
18% 19%
64%
TDR: 57% (Eng.56%)
266,100Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 57%
266,100Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 58%
268,600Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 58%
271,000Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 56%
273,300Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 59%
275,600Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 60%
277,800Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 61%
280,100Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 62%
282,400Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 62%
284,600Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 63%
286,800Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 64%
289,000Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 64%
291,200Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 65%
293,400Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 65%
295,600Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 66%
297,800Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 67%
299,900Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 68%
301,900Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 69%
303,900Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 69%
305,900Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 70%
307,800Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 71%
309,600Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 72%
311,400Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 72%
313,200Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 73%
315,000Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 73%
316,700Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
TDR: 74% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 74 ‘dependents’) Eng.72%
318,400Po
pula
tion
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
318,400Po
pula
tion
Age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
2037
2012
Popu
latio
n
Age
+6,400 (+12.9%)
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
2037
2012
Popu
latio
n
Age
+13,800(+8.1%)
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
2037
2012
Popu
latio
n
Age
+32,000(+68.7%)
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
2037
2012
Popu
latio
n
Age
Older people80+ yrs.
+15,200(+126%)
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
2037
2012
Popu
latio
n
Age
Children0-15 yrs.
Working aged16-64 yrs.
Older people65+ yrs.
2037 TDR: 74%England: 72%
2012 TDR: 57%England: 56%
Popu
latio
n
Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age
An update…
2013 MYE:
2013 MYE:
269,100
2013 MYE:
269,100(+3,000 on 266,100)
Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs
Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs
+500
+2,100 PA
Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs
Limitations of ONS population projections…• Only available at local authority level
• All ONS population projections are ‘policy off’
• No assumptions for future levels of housing development
In summary…• By 2037, South Glos’ population projected to rise to 318.4k (+52K / +20%)
• Higher rate of growth than national average but lower than (long-term) historic growth
• Drivers of population change: • Natural change + internal migration are projected to be the largest components of change
• Age structural changes:• Flatter population structure projected in 2037 • 32k more residents 65+yrs • 15.2K more residents 80+yrs • Dependency ratio projected to rise from 57% to 74%
• Official population projections are generally plausible, but, • More recent (2013 MYE’s suggest actual growth is higher than projected) – economic recovery? :
• Official projections ‘policy off’
Conclusion
• An ageing population will have implications for all council services
• Issues are not unique to South Gloucestershire• Projected changes broadly in-line with national averages
• Changes will be gradual • But we should start to plan for them now