edition européenne statistiques 2011

7/30/2019 Edition europenne statistiques 2011

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FEP REPORT ON BOOK STATISTICS November 2012

Core data 2004-2011

Consolidated data

After the collection of questionnaires with data from 2011 and the usual processes of

correction and integration, FEP has compiled the information to build a fairly complete and

reliable picture for trends in book publishing between 2004 and 2011.

Since one of the aims of the collection of statistics is to be able to present them to our

counterparts, the figures gathered have been further integrated (through estimates, data from

the nearest year available or Eurostat) in order to obtain with a core of data; this exercise, firstrealised on data for 2006, has been repeated after the surveys conducted by FEP concerning

data from 2007 to 2011. As a result of the data collection and processing, we have a fairlycomplete and reliable picture from 2006 to 2011. Some figures, as said, have been adjusted,

and in various cases it was necessary to depart from those reported on the questionnaires. It

must be kept in mind that absolute precision with the available figures is not achievable.

In synthesis, the figures for the book publishing industry for 2011 in Europe1

(EU plus Norwayand Iceland) are:

Net publishers turnover 22 800 000 000

Title production 530 000

Active catalogue 8 500 000

Employment 135 000

Totals have been rounded quite conservatively, especially with respect to turnover and titles

output (knowing that in some countries figures account for more than just new titles); the

figure for the active catalogue has been instead increased by adding the yearly output of

countries for which data on the catalogue itself was not available.

The largest markets in terms of publishers turnover in 2011 were Germany, followed by the

UK, France, Spain and Italy (the ranking was the same as in 2006-10)

The countries reporting the largest new titles output were3

the UK (149,800), Germany

(82,048), Spain (approx. 44,000), France (41,902) and Italy (39,898).

Figures similarly obtained for 2006/2010 were as follows:

1Data from FEP members have been integrated with estimates from external sources for Latvia, Malta and

Slovakia.2

It is worth noting that, besides the direct employment, book publishing contributes also indirectly to job creation:

for example, there are more than 100,000 writers and literary translators in Europe, as well as more than 25,000

individual bookstores.3UK, France and Spain include new editions.


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2010



Active catalogue 7 400 000Employment 135 000

2009




Employment 135 000

2008




Employment 135 0002007




Employment 140 000

2006




Employment 140 000

By the same standards, a similar exercise was applied to the figures collected through the

questionnaires for 2004, giving this result (data for active catalogue was too incomplete):



Employment 145 000

As already mentioned, such figures should not be taken as 100% precise, but serve to analyse

trends; in this case, we can see a certain increase of turnover until the beginning of the

economic crisis in 2008 and a more remarkable one of titles produced, while employment

shows a slight tendency to stagnate/decrease throughout the whole period considered. The

crisis years saw a stagnation in terms of turnover (once accounted for the exchange rates effect,

see below), finally reverted in 2010, when turnover started growing again (though not very

strongly); 2011 was again a negative year, with all major markets recording turnover decreases.

The title output, constantly increasing throughout the period, slowed down in 2009, although insome individual markets there had been decreases already in 2008, accelerated again in 2010,

although not uniformly, and slowed once more in 2011 (also not uniformly). The active

catalogue (number of titles commercially available), on the other hand, maintains a steady

increasing trend (possibly supported by the fast development of electronic publishing); the

huge upsurge of 2010 and 2011 is due mainly to the availability of titles in the UK.

The following graph shows the comparison:


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Graph 1: Core data on the book publishing sector, comparison 2004-2011

Source: FEP questionnaires, integrated and elaborated by FEP

In addition, a number of factors make it difficult to make precise comparisons of the completeaggregated figures between different years. In the previous two years, the most important point

was the effect of exchange rates: whereas between 2007 and 2009 the large depreciation of a

number of other currencies against the Euro accounted for a large proportion of the decrease in

turnover (around 75% of it), in 2010 the exchange rates effect worked the other way around,

nominally inflating the size of the recovery. Without such effect, the total turnover between2009 and 2010 would have remained more or less flat, with an increase of around 1%, rather

than the apparent 2%. In the case of the current analysis, though, no appreciable currency

effects influenced remarkably the decline in turnover (see the Exchange Rates section for more

details).

Through future surveys, statistics will keep being collected on a yearly basis; thus, after 2011,the next survey, in the second half of 2013, will regard data for 2012. This will most likely

allow keeping building time series that are more and more consistent and harmonised.

Difficulties with comparisons

A few words need to be spent to clarify some of the elements that make it difficult to compare

the results of the integration and correction exercises applied to data from one year to another

(as we did for the previous reports).

First of all, part of these problematic elements are likely to be a permanent feature of the

statistics collections, since there are some structural difficulties as far as the process isconcerned (as illustrated in the report of FEP activities in the field of statistics, 03/2009).


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recovery of 2010 is confirmed, but this is also partly due to exchange rates effects, and so is the

new decline of 2011, mostly valid also in real terms.

Graph 3: Production of new titles, selected countries, 2004-2011


Data here refer to 20 FEP members with continuous data on title output, representing morethan 80% of the total EU production. Some marginal estimates have been made, and in some

cases there is an overestimate due to the use of national library data (which usually include

booklets and sometimes non-commercial publications), so figures should not be taken literally,but it is possible to appreciate the trend. After a flexion in 2005 (mainly due to a decreasing

trend in titles production in the UK, reverted the following year), the production of new titles

shows a clear tendency to grow, even in 2008 (although there were decreases in some

individual markets, including a few large ones). The upward impulse showed signs of

exhaustion in 2009, accelerated again in 2010 and slowed once more in 2011 (in recent years

always with mixed results across different markets).

Breakdowns

Figures on publishers turnover are also collected according to a breakdown by book categories

(school, academic/professional/reference, trade, childrens), destination market (home or

export) and distribution channel (trade, book clubs, direct sales). Though such detailedinformation is not always available for all the countries surveyed, the existing sample is large

enough to estimate the proportion of revenues due to the various categories at European level.

The results of the estimation are as follows:


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Graph 4: Publishers turnover, breakdown by categories, 2006-2011


Trade is clearly the largest sector of book publishing in terms of revenues, followed by

academic/professional, school and childrens books. Proportions have not varied largely in the

years; the initial shift between the school and academic sectors is most likely due toadjustments in the data collection process. There were signs in 2008 of an increasingimportance of the childrens sector and a loss of weight by educational publishing; in 2009, the

childrens sector maintained its increased prominence, while the academic and professional

sector lost some market quota compared to the school sector; in 2010, childrens booksretained their improved position in a scenario where the sector composition remained more or

less unvaried; in 2011, childrens books were still holding their position, while school

publishing seemed to gain some market share compared to academic and professional

publishing. Again, it is worth mentioning that the data collection methodology is partly

responsible for some inaccuracy in the results, in particular due to bigger difficulties in

retrieving data from the academic and professional sector.

The analysis of figures on sales in the domestic market and abroad reveal that home marketsare the main source of income for European publishers; exports account for a relevant share of

turnover nonetheless, especially thanks to countries with widely spoken languages (the UK,

France, Spain and Germany). It is worth here highlighting the importance of the export

component for the European publishing industry. Until 2009, the share of exports in the totalindustry turnover decreased; the main explanations include the remarkable strengthening of the

Euro against the US Dollar between 2006 and 2008 and, starting from 2008, the economic and

financial crisis, which in general had a bigger impact on extra-EU sales than on domesticmarkets. In 2010 and 2011, the exports share grew consistently, helped partly by a weaker

Euro and partly by stronger economic performances in a number of export markets outside the

EU, especially emerging markets.


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Graph 5: Publishers turnover, breakdown by destination market, 2006-2011


Graph 6: Publishers turnover, breakdown by distribution channel, 2006-2011


As to distribution channels, trade is in a dominant position, accounting for more than threequarters of turnover; direct sales are second, and book clubs close the ranking and seem to be


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gradually losing their market share. In 2010, direct sales increased their market share

remarkably, possibly due to electronic sales, but they decreased it again in 2011, maybe as

intermediaries increased their shares in e-book sales.

Inflation

The growth of publishers turnover is now compared to the inflation rate in the EU and in the

Euro area; this allows to put into perspective the trend in publishers revenues, showing

whether possible increases are strong enough to overcome the depreciation of money. Forgreater significance, the comparison is made using the more consistent data trends from

countries with the most reliable information rather than the total estimates.

The following table reports the inflation rate (annual average rate of change in HarmonizedIndices of Consumer Prices) in the EU countries and in the EEA ones which are FEP members,

in the EU as a whole and in the Euro area.

Table 1: Annual average rate of inflation in Europe, 2004-20112004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

European Union 2 2,2 2,2 2,3 3,7 1 2,1 3,1

Euro area 2,1 2,2 2,2 2,1 3,3 0,3 1,6 2,7

Belgium 1,9 2,5 2,3 1,8 4,5 0 2,3 3,5

Bulgaria 6,1 6,0 7,4 7,6 12,0 2,5 3 3,4

Czech Republic 2,6 1,6 2,1 3 6,3 0,6 1,2 2,1

Denmark 0,9 1,7 1,9 1,7 3,6 1,1 2,2 2,7

Germany 1,8 1,9 1,8 2,3 2,8 0,2 1,2 2,5

Estonia 3 4,1 4,4 6,7 10,6 0,2 2,7 5,1

Ireland 2,3 2,2 2,7 2,9 3,1 -1,7 -1,6 1,2Greece 3 3,5 3,3 3 4,2 1,3 4,7 3,1

Spain 3,1 3,4 3,6 2,8 4,1 -0,2 2 3,1

France 2,3 1,9 1,9 1,6 3,2 0,1 1,7 2,3

Italy 2,3 2,2 2,2 2 3,5 0,8 1,6 2,9

Cyprus 1,9 2,0 2,2 2,2 4,4 0,2 2,6 3,5

Latvia 6,2 6,9 6,6 10,1 15,3 3,3 -1,2 4,2

Lithuania 1,2 2,7 3,8 5,8 11,1 4,2 1,2 4,1

Luxembourg 3,2 3,8 3 2,7 4,1 0 2,8 3,7

Hungary 6,8 3,5 4 7,9 6,0 4 4,7 3,9

Malta 2,7 2,5 2,6 0,7 4,7 1,8 2 2,5

Netherlands 1,4 1,5 1,7 1,6 2,2 1 0,9 2,5

Austria 2 2,1 1,7 2,2 3,2 0,4 1,7 3,6

Poland 3,6 2,2 1,3 2,6 4,2 4 2,7 3,9

Portugal 2,5 2,1 3 2,4 2,7 -0,9 1,4 3,6

Romania 11,9 9,1 6,6 4,9 7,9 5,6 6,1 5,8

Slovenia 3,7 2,5 2,5 3,8 5,5 0,9 2,1 2,1

Slovakia 7,5 2,8 4,3 1,9 3,9 0,9 0,7 4,1

Finland 0,1 0,8 1,3 1,6 3,9 1,6 1,7 3,3

Sweden 1 0,8 1,5 1,7 3,3 1,9 1,9 1,4

United Kingdom 1,3 2,1 2,3 2,3 3,6 2,2 3,3 4,5

Iceland 2,3 1,4 4,6 3,6 12,8 16,3 7,5 4,2

Norway 0,6 1,5 2,5 0,7 3,4 2,3 2,3 1,2

Source: Eurostat,Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs)


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choice of the rate of conversion of other currencies into Euros is therefore quite an important

one, since in some cases exchange rate differences can account for deviations of 10, or even

15% in figures (an amount large enough to completely transform, if not subvert, the trends seen

in the original currency).

This is why, for a start, we have chosen to convert other currencies into Euros using the yearly

average exchange rate as a first way to smooth fluctuations and make more equitable

estimations. Still, since this might not be enough in case of prolonged and marked shifts in

currency values, FEP statistical reports now include an illustration of the trends of otherEuropean currencies against the Euro, and an explanation of their impact on the estimation of

the total publishers turnover, where deemed relevant.5

The following are the yearly average exchange rates with the Euro of the currencies of FEPmembers countries, for the period 2004-2011:

Graph 8: Exchange rates with Euro, other European currencies, 2004-2011

5BGN: GBP: British Pound; Bulgarian Lev; CZK: Czech Koruna; DKK: Danish Krone; EEK: Estonian Kroon;

ISK: Icelandic Krona; HUF: Hungarian Forint; LTL: Lithuanian Litas; NOK: Norwegian Kroner; PLN: PolishZloty; SEK: Swedish Krona.


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Source: Oanda.com, yearly averages, interbank rate

In most cases, it is possible to observe a certain degree of stability of the exchange rates over

the medium term; this is obviously true, in particular, for currencies pegged to the Euro. As for

the others, until 2007 the only remarkable cases were those of the CZK, which had gained

almost 15% on the Euro between 2004 and 2007 (lack of consistent data on turnover did not

allow to appreciate the exchange rate effect) and the PLN, which had appreciated close to 20%


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vis--vis the Euro in the same period (thus accounting for a large part of the increase of Polish

publishers turnover in Euro terms between 2004 and 2007 - nearly 40%; considering values in

Zloty, the increase is somewhat above 16%). Both the CZK and the PLN kept appreciating in

2008; thus, the increase in the estimated Czech turnover of over 14% in one year is largelyaccounted for by an appreciation of the CZK of over 11%, while nearly half of anotherremarkable increase in the turnover of Polish publishers (up more than 20% in Euro terms) is

due to a gain of the Zloty of over 8% against the Euro. But the most outstanding case is that of

the GBP: while the publishers turnover was basically unchanged from 2007 to 2008, the 14%

depreciation of the currency caused an apparent loss in Euro terms of around 600 million.

In 2009, a number of currencies depreciated noticeably against the Euro: the GBP lost more

than 10%, the PLN lost almost 20%, the SEK and the HUF around 10%. Altogether, these

provoked an apparent loss of more than 600 million, thus accounting for most of the resultingdecrease in turnover (the four countries together lost some 14% of turnover year-on-year, but

the real decrease without the exchange rate bias was about 2.5%). In 2010, the trend reverted:the GBP gained almost 4%, the PLN almost 8%, the NOK almost 9% and the SEK some 11%.

The increases in value of the Pound, Zloty and Krona alone account for about half of the

growth of turnover (some 250 million).

In 2011, fluctuations in the exchange rates were nowhere near those of the previous years andwent into opposite directions: slight weakening of GBP and PLN, some appreciation of SEK

and NOK, for an overall negligible impact.

To illustrate the important effect of the exchange rates, the following graph compares the

turnover development at current exchange rates (as shown in Graph 2) and the same figure

calculated keeping exchange rates constant at the 2004 level.

Graph 9: Publishers net turnover (constant exchange rate), selected countries, 2004-2011


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It is clear how, once accounted for the exchange rate effect, the decrease in turnover of 2008

and 2009 gets largely scaled down; the comparison between 2009 and 2007 is corrected to an

apparent -7% to a mere -2%, and the figure for 2009, rather than being below the one for 2005,is still above the one for 2006. On the other hand, the increase in 2010 is more likely justbelow 1%, rather than the nominal 2%. It is easy to appreciate also how the decline in 2011

does not depend in particular on exchange rate effects.

Considering that often international transactions are conducted in US Dollars, and given theimportance of book exports for some European countries, FEP also monitors the developments

of the exchange rate of the Euro with the US currency.

Graph 10: Exchange rates Euro/US Dollar, 2004-2011

Source: Oanda.com, yearly averages, interbank rate

The increasing value of the Euro compared to the Dollar in the period 2006-2008 is quite clear,

and this can have created difficulties to countries that have their exports paid in Dollars; theEuros weakening in 2009 seemingly did not revitalise exports, most likely as the effects of the

crisis were still stronger. Nevertheless, the Euro continued losing ground to the Dollar in 2010;

this, coupled with the economic recovery in a number of extra-EU markets, explains at least inpart the surge in the share of exports from the publishing sector. Anyway, as the Euro grew

stronger in 2011, exports overall were not affected too negatively.

US publishing

It can be also interesting to compare the trends in turnover of European and US publishers,

keeping moreover into account the fluctuations of the exchange rates. FEP will therefore

monitor the sales figures of the Association of American Publishers (AAP) and compare them


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to its data on Europe. The following table shows this comparison both in Euro and Dollar

terms.

Graph 11: Turnover of European and US publishers, in USD and EUR (bln), 2006-2011

In the period considered, the value of European publishing (net income) has been consistentlyabove that of US publishing; the exchange rate developments until 2008 reinforced this trend,

as the increase in the Euro value resulted in a constant increase of European turnover in USD

terms and a constant decrease of the US turnover in Euro terms; of course, this trend was

reverted in 2009. Taken each in their own currency, the two sets show similar trends in years of

growth, while the US publishing sector seems not to have been particularly affected by the

crisis, at least until 2011.6

Average book prices

Where available, FEP has also collected data on trends of book prices in some countries in

Europe, since this can be another interesting indicator of the performance of the industry. In theprevious editions of this report, indexes built on the average book price trends in some selected

markets were compared with the respective consumer price indices (as reported in the table

above).

From last edition, FEP has started using Eurostat data to track the trends in book prices and

compare them to the general prices index. In fact, the previous method of analysis must be

taken with some caution: on one hand, there are different ways to calculate consumer price

indices; one the other, also the methods for estimating the average book prices can vary

6

US publishers launched an improved statistical survey for the years 2008-2010; this explains the difference withthe previous FEP reports regarding US data and also makes data from 2008-2010 not comparable with older ones.


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widely.7

In addition, such methods do not necessarily depict the evolution of the prices actually

paid by consumers, which are influenced by their preferences (for example, even if book prices

as an average increase, the average price of books sold might decrease as consumers shift

towards the cheaper ones).

The following graph shows he overall trend in book prices and general consumer prices in the

EU and the Euro area since 2005:

Graph 12: Book prices indices (BPI) and consumer price indices (CPI), comparison, EU

and Euro area, 2005-2011 (base: 2005=100)

Source: Eurostat,Annual average index of Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs)

The main conclusion that can be drawn by analysing the trends shown in the graphics is that in

general book prices tend to increase less than the global consumer prices; also in the countries

where in a few years this was not the case, the tendency was reverted by actual decreases in

average book prices at the end of the period considered. This means that between 2005 and

2011, even though book prices have increased all in all, either constantly or with interruptions,the relative price of books has decreased; the phenomenon has been more remarkable in theEuro area. Between 2005 and 2011, book prices have increased more than global ones only in

Hungary, Portugal and Slovakia (until 2010 the list included also Latvia and the UK).

7In our case, for the UK we had the average price invoiced by publishers; for Germany, Italy and France, the

figures provided by National Statistics Offices, based on surveys of street prices of various kinds of books, then

combined and weighted according to the estimated volume sales of each category; for Spain and Poland, the ratiobetween turnover and books sold.

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