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TRANSCRIPT
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein.
MONTHLY SET STRATEGY:
Thai Stock Market Outlook & Stock Picks for Apr 2014
Research Team
Apr 1, 2014
Rising political heat to keep Thai stocks
in check in the month of Songkran
MCI(P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: TH2014_0127
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 2
Thai stock market outlook for 2Q14 & Apr 2014
Summary
Thai economic and political outlook for 2Q14
(1) Domestic political uncertainty with no signs of light at the end of the political tunnel has still put the Thai economy
at risk of a slowdown. The prospect of slowing consumption and investment also keep growth hope largely pinned on
exports. Even though the lifting of the emergency law has taken some of the pressure off the tourism industry, fears of
renewed political chaos as a consequence of political protests by both government supporters and opponents may
however spoil high tourism season during the annual water splashing Songkran Festival in early 2Q14.
(2) Thailand may face more political risks from a possible confrontation between government supporters and
opponents in the aftermath of court rulings on political cases relating to the caretaker PM and the survival of the
caretaker government especially in the scorching month of Apr when (i) the pro-government, red-shirt United Front for
Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) plans a mass rally on Apr 5 and (ii) the Constitutional Court will meet on Apr 2
to decide whether to accept a petition by a group of senators asking it to rule if Yingluck Shinawatra's position as
caretaker PM is still valid under Section 182 (7) of the constitution after the Supreme Administrative Court ordered the
reinstatement of Thawil Pliensri as secretary-general of the National Security Council within 45 days.
Thai stock market outlook for 2Q14
The reactions of several political groups in the wake of court rulings on cases relating to the caretaker government
could raise the odds of rising political heat in the torrid month of Apr. Dividend season also normally reaches its peak
for the year in Apr. As things stand, the choppy sideways action is likely to continue in the Thai stock market as
political and economic risks may put a cap on the upside potential while the downside could be tempered by a return
of foreign fund inflows into Asia. The pace of foreign selling in Thai stocks shows signs of abating after heavy sell-offs
last year and well into the first quarter of this year. We expect a trading range of 1320, 1340-1460, 1480 points for the
SET index in 2Q14. On a monthly basis, the SET index is expected to trade in a range of 1340-1420 points in the
month of Apr.
Our top three picks for 2Q14 are CPF, PTTGC and RS while our recommended picks for the month of Apr include
BWG, CHG and MINT.
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 3
Private consumption in slow growth mode
The end of economic stimulus may hold back private consumption while consumers are now far more cautious in
spending amid prolonged political crisis.
40
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Consumer Confident Index
Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT) Source: Bloomberg
2012 2013 2013 2014
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb
PCI 147.0 147.5 148.0 149.2 146.8 147.0 147.2 145.5
%YoY 5.7 0.3 2.2 0.0 -2.2 -0.9 -1.5 -2.5
%MoM, %QoQ - - - - -0.4 0.2 0.3 -1.2
Private Consumption Index (PCI)
(Seasonally adjusted, 2000=100)
P=Preliminary data
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 4
Public and private investment in slow gear
Source: Bank of Thailand
The delays in the Bt350bn water management projects and Bt2trn infrastructure scheme have put the brakes on both
public and private investment while business sentiment index (BSI) slipped below average.
The prolonged political deadlock and a lack of a new government put the FY15 budget allocation at great risk of long
delays.
Source: Bank of Thailand
2012 2013 2013 2014
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb
Pll 243.9 237.7 241.1 234.3 237.4 231.3 232.1 227.7
%YoY 17.3 -2.5 0.7 -5.7 -3.4 -7.9 -8.1 -7.7
%QoQ. %MoM - - - - 0.2 -2.6 0.3 -1.9
Private Investment Index (PII)
(Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average)
P= Preliminary data
2012 2013 2013 2014
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb
BSI 51.5 49.3 51.5 47.1 47.8 46.4 45.4 46.5
Expected BSI 55.5 53.9 55.7 52.1 52.4 51.8 52.0 53.2
Business Sentiment Index
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 5
Source: Bank of Thailand
Exports and tourism show signs of gradual recovery
Exports are likely to fare better than a year ago while the recovery in tourism looks set to gain more traction after the
end of the emergency law but the lingering domestic political unrest may temper the positive impact from the annual
water-splashing Songkran Festival.
Source: Bank of Thailand
%YoY 2012 2013 2013 2014
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb
Agriculture -23.1 0.0 -3.0 3.1 -0.2 5.9 -4.5 5.6
Fishery -7.1 -25.4 -25.3 -25.5 -28.2 -22.9 -12.3 -5.7
Manufacturing 6.1 1.8 3.5 0.1 1.4 -1.1 -4.2 0.6
Electronics 0.9 -0.7 -3.6 2.2 2.6 1.7 2.7 4.7
Automotive 26.3 7.6 14.4 1.6 7.2 -3.9 -12.1 17.3
Agro-
manufacturing
Product
4.1 -2.6 -2.4 -2.7 -4.5 -0.9 -6.1 -7.8
Machinery &
Equipment
1.9 4.0 1.2 6.8 4.7 8.9 11.3 14.7
Petroleum
products
15.7 -1.3 -13.0 10.7 9.6 11.8 -2.7 -18.8
Petro-
chemical
Product
-1.8 5.3 6.4 4.2 3.6 4.9 6.1 2.8
Electrical
Appliances
2.2 2.3 5.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 13.1 6.7
Metal & Steel 21.2 -5.5 30.1 -29.7 -21.0 -37.2 -38.8 -40.0
Apparels and
Textile
Materials
-12.0 3.6 4.0 3.2 4.2 2.2 -1.5 0.6
Total 3.1 -0.2 1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.0 -1.5 2.2
Export Growth (in terms of US$)
2012 2013 2013 2014
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb
No. of tourists
(*000)
22,354 26,736 12,924 13,812 6,749 7,063 2,320 2,174
%YoY 16.2 19.6 21.7 17.7 26.1 10.7 0.1 -8.1
Occupancy 60.8 64.9 66.3 63.6 62.6 64.5 61.2 62.1
Jan 2014=17.7Bn USD (-1.5%) Feb 2014=18.2 Bn USD (2.2%)
P= preliminary data
Tourism
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 6
Date Key political events to watch
Apr 2 The Constitutional Court will meet to decide whether to hear a petition by a group of senators asking
it to rule if Yingluck Shinawatra's position as caretaker PM is still valid under Section 182 (7) of the
constitution after the Supreme Administrative Court ordered the reinstatement of Thawil Pliensri as secretary-general of the National Security Council within 45 days.
Comment: If the charter court decides to hear the case and it upholds the Supreme Administrative Court’s verdict that
the government’s removal of Thawil Pliensri from the post in 2011 was unlawful and the court ordered his reinstatement
as NSC secretary-general within 45 days of the court’s ruling, the caretaker government’s life would come to a statutory
end and leave Thailand in a political vacuum, which may eventually lead to the appointment of a neutral prime minister.
Apr 5 - The pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) plans a mass rally.
- The anti-government People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) sets Apr 5 for a major
assembly of its leaders at Lumpini Park.
Comment: There is a risk of rising political temperature especially if the caretaker government would be removed from
office, a move that could possibly lead to out-of-control violence.
--- National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC)’s ruling on caretaker PM Yingluck Shinawatra over the
rice pledging scam.
Key political events to watch in the month of Apr
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 7
Historical performance of the Thai stock market in 2Q
Statistics over the past 10 years since 2004 showed dividend payout reached its peak for the year in Apr on average
and the momentum subsided in May and Jun. Statistics further showed that HELTH and ICT normally performed the
best among all sectors during 2Q.
SET Total Return
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bloomberg
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 8
Foreign fund flow: Massive foreign sell-off of Thai shares amid domestic political pressure
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SE
T in
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rtfo
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eM
illio
ns
Proxy Foreign Portfolio SET index
31
32
33
34
35
36
37(%)
Domestic political pressure sparked a
massive foreign sell-off in Thai stocks.
In our view, there seems to be limited
downside room in Thai stocks for the
time being though political heat may
rise again, except a major political
change that will overthrow the
democratic system, a factor that may
renew heavy foreign selling in Thai
shares.
Net foreign portfolio investment in Thai stock market
% of foreign holdings in Thai stocks to market cap
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 9
Sector update &
stock picks for 2Q14
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 10
Sector update & stock picks for 2Q14
SectorInvestment
weighting
Stock
pickInvestment theme
2014
Mkt Cap
(Btmn)FV
(Bt)
P/E
(X)
P/BV
(X)
Div
Yld
AGRI NT --- STA Rubber prices look set to benefit from wintering season and global recovery prospects.
16.00 10.41 0.93 4.58% 19,584
FOOD NT --- CPF Earnings are poised for return to strong growth mode on solid ASPs in
livestock business and the prospect of a recovery in aquaculture business in 2HCY14. 34.50 18.30 1.59 2.86% 216,802
BANK OW --- BBL Lending is likely to pick up after a slowdown in 1QCY14 on expectations that
corporate loans will keep growing. Earnings should also fare better as corporate loans account for the biggest portion of its loan portfolio.
229.00 8.83 1.02 4.06% 340,728
FIN NT --- ASP Market turnover seems to be on a steady decline due to the persistent political
uncertainty and the effects of the long holiday breaks in 2Q. For this reason,
2QCY14 earnings are unlikely to be better than 2QCY13 and 1QCY14. 3.70 9.19 1.55 8.82% 7,159
PETRO OW --- PTTGC Strong demand growth should keep olefins spreads at high levels. Valuation-wise, PTTGC is also viewed as a laggard relative to its peers. 87.00 8.30 1.24 5.41% 325,764
CONMAT OW --- SCC Normally 2Q is the traditional low season for cement business after a
slowdown in cement demand in 1QCY14. As construction activity for
government projects mainly hinges on the installation of a new government,
we therefore prefer SCC as the impact could be offset by its petrochemical business which is largely tied to external factors. 500.00 12.95 2.21 4.11% 501,600
PROP NT ▼ SPALI Due to the fallout from domestic political unrest, which has continued to take a
toll on housing market and the absence of new project launches, what remains
to be seen is whether business targets will be revised. For this reason, we
prefer SPALI as its huge backlog would keep earnings going ahead. 24.40 7.61 2.05 5.28% 30,555
ENERG NT --- PTTEP PTTEP remains a laggard relative to its peers. Sales volume growth would be a key earnings driver. 196.00 8.95 1.51 4.46% 623,288
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 11
Sector update & stock picks for 2Q14
SectorInvestment
weighting
Stock
pickInvestment theme
2014
Mkt Cap
(Btmn)FV
(Bt)
P/E
(X)
P/BV
(X)
Div
Yld
TRANS NT --- TTA In q-q terms, profitability is likely to continue in 2QFY14. On a y-y basis, 2QFY14 profit
would mark a turnaround from the loss in 2QFY13. The earnings improvement would
continue to be driven by a further recovery in dry bulk shipping business, a strong
performance at MML thanks to contracts with Saudi Aramco and a solid performance from Baconco. 24.60 23.04 1.08 1.32% 27,386
HELTH NT --- BGH The number of international patients is set to pick up after the end of the emergency
law. BGH of late also announced a plan to reduce the stock’s par value to Bt0.10/share from Bt1/share. 152.00 30.37 4.60 1.45% 206,030
CHG Small-tier hospital CHG appears to have been undeterred by a drop in international patients as it targets mid-tier clients and its hospitals are not located near protest sites. 12.10 23.86 3.89 2.57% 11,550
MEDIA NT --- RS RS won the broadcasting rights to the 2014 FIFA World Cup finals to be held from Jun 12-Jul 13, 2014. Revenue is also expected to be strong during the World Cup.
9.55-
10.50 18.02 4.91 4.62% 8,388
PROF --- --- BWG BWG looks to benefit from tighter enforcement of waste disposal regulations on
factories by regulatory agencies after a massive fire at garbage dump in Praeksa. In
addition to a 10%-15% increase in service fees, BWG also aims to boost the proportion of high-margin income from hazardous industrial waste disposal service this year.
4.28 9.56 1.39 4.07% 2,458
TOURISM NT --- MINT Domestic political pressure remains a downside risk to the outlook. In our view,
2QCY14 may not yet be a good quarter for MINT but it could provide an opportunity to
accumulate shares to bet on a recovery in tourism and hotel industries in 2HCY14.
MINT also looks to be the best play in the hotel space under the current political circumstances in view of its well-diversified revenue profile both at home and abroad. 30.00 21.95 3.44 1.45% 99,234
ICT NT ▼ INTUCH Earnings growth would be driven by profit contribution from ADVANC and THCOM. In
our view, earnings growth momentum is likely to continue at ADVANC as the mobile
business would continue to be driven by revenue from non-voice services, which is
projected to grow by at least 20%-25%. For THCOM, growth would be driven
bybandwidth demand in many countries and Thaicom 6 satellite, which was launched into orbit at the start of the year. 97.00 15.64 7.38 5.76% 247,696
ETRON NT --- KCE Share price run-up reflected its strong operating performance. KCE remains one of our top picks in the electronics space in view of its best-in-class earnings growth profile. 30.50 10.60 2.95 3.25% 16,883
** Based on closing price as of Mar 31, 2014
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 12
Charoen Pokphand Foods - CPF
Rating Buy
Target Price (Bt) 34.50
Closing Price (Bt) 28.00
Expected Capital Gains (%) 23.2%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 2.9%
Expected Total Return (%) 26.1%
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.04
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 216,801
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 400,384
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 21.3
52 w eek range 21.6 - 33.75
Major Shareholders (%)
25.0
11.4
6.4
Valuation Method
SOTP
CG Report - 2013
(Excellent)
3. Littledow n Nominees Limited
1. Charoen Pokphand Group Co., Ltd.
2. Charoen Pokphand Holding Co., Ltd.
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0102030405060708090
Volume, mn CPF TB EQUITY SETI rebased
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 18,789.93 2.54 1.10 15.60 20.00 11.01 3.93 1.80 12/13 A 7,065.25 0.96 0.50 16.73 5.60 29.28 1.79 1.67 12/14 E 11,316.30 1.53 0.80 17.60 8.50 18.28 2.87 1.59 12/15 E 12,135.88 1.64 0.85 18.31 8.70 17.05 3.05 1.53
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 13
Charoen Pokphand Foods - CPF
Earnings look set to return to strong growth mode this
year helped by the sustained high levels of pork and
chicken prices and the prospect of a recovery in shrimp
business in the second half of the year thanks to a
projected 20% y-y rise in shrimp supply this year. Our
forecast puts CY14 net profit at Bt11,316mn, up 60% y-y
based on assumptions that full-year sales will be up
11% y-y to Bt431,288mn.
The removal of Japan’s decade-old import ban on Thai
raw chicken would alleviate oversupply in the industry, a
factor that could also keep selling prices at high levels.
On a normalized basis, our forecast suggests CPF will
swing back to an operating profit in 1QCY14 after it
suffered losses from aquaculture business last year.
In our view, CPF is a big laggard in the agri-food export
space. Its current share price has not reflected its
earnings turnaround story driven by industry recovery
and strong selling prices. We have a ‘BUY’ call on CPF
shares with a Bt34.50/share target price.
Target price: Bt34.50
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt26.75
Resistance: Bt34.00 Cut loss: Bt25.50
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 14
PTT Global Chemical - PTTGC
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 34,001.00 7.54 3.40 49.33 16.15 9.58 4.71 1.46 12/13 A 33,277.41 7.38 3.40 52.90 14.44 9.79 4.71 1.37 12/14 E 39,208.06 8.70 3.91 58.25 15.65 8.31 5.42 1.24 12/15 E 46,694.88 10.36 4.66 64.39 16.89 6.98 6.45 1.12
Rating Buy
Target Price (Bt) 87.00
Closing Price (Bt) 72.25
Expected Capital Gains (%) 20.4%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 5.4%
Expected Total Return (%) 25.8%
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 0.87
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 325,761
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 408,358
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 11.4
52 w eek range 64 - 80.75
Major Shareholders (%)
48.9
9.1
2.8
Valuation Method
P/B'14 (1.5x)
CG Report - 2013
(Excellent)
3. STATE STREET BANK EUROPE LIMITED
1. PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
2. THAI NVDR COMPANY LIMITED
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Volume, mn PTTGC TB EQUITY SETI rebased
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 15
PTT Global Chemical - PTTGC
Demand growth should act as a catalyst to keep olefins
spreads at high levels. Last year, up to 60% of PTTGC’s
EBITDA came from olefins and derivatives businesses.
Earnings would also receive a boost from normalization
of feedstock supply after the resumption of PTT’s fifth
gas separation plant and a shorter period of plant
maintenance shutdown planned for this year.
Shares in PTTGC lost as much as 6% over the last
three months, much underperforming the petrochemical
sector and the broader SET index. In our view, the
sustained high olefins spread outlook, a shorter period
of plant maintenance shutdown and price laggard play
are enough to warrant a ‘BUY’ rating on PTTGC shares
with CY14 target price of Bt87/share based on a P/B
multiple of 1.5x.
Target price: Bt87.00
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt69.50
Resistance: Bt81.75 Cut loss: Bt68.50
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 16
RS - RS
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 284.27 0.32 0.25 1.43 26.49 27.03 2.89 6.05 12/13 A 394.49 0.41 0.35 1.65 28.74 21.10 4.05 5.24 12/14 E 488.75 0.48 0.40 1.76 31.95 18.02 4.62 4.91 12/15 E 446.78 0.44 0.37 1.80 26.21 19.66 4.28 4.81
Rating Trading Buy
Target Price (Bt) 9.55-10.5
Closing Price (Bt) 8.65
Expected Capital Gains (%) 10.4-21.4%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 4.6%
Expected Total Return (%) 15.0-26.0%
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.49
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 8,282
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 8,014
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 5.8
52 w eek range 5.85 - 12.5
Major Shareholders (%)
32.3
18.1
4.3
Valuation Method
P/E'14 (20-22x)
CG Report - 2013
(Excellent)
2. Mr. Yotin Vanitvarakit
1. Mr. Surachai Chetchotisak
2. Mr. Sorat Vanitvarakit
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
Volume, mn RS TB EQUITY SETI rebased
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 17
RS - RS
Due to a host of headwinds from first-quarter low season effect, domestic political worries and dwindling purchasing power, total industry-wide ad expenditures in Jan-Feb 2014 dropped 5.7% y-y.
Even though lingering political concerns and eroding purchasing power may spoil high season for ad spending in the second quarter, the impact could be offset by a windfall from the 2014 FIFA World Cup finals to be held from Jun 12-Jul 13, 2014, a big sports event that would draw more ad spending. RS won the broadcasting rights to the 2014 FIFA World Cup.The total amount of platinum sponsorship contracts it has signed up for the 2014 FIFA World Cup has now climbed to Bt300mn.
The Central Administrative Court ruled that the NBTC’s ‘must have’ rule could not be applied against RS plan to allow the broadcast of only 22 out of the total 64 World Cup finals matches on free TV. The NBTC will appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court against a lower court’s ruling. In our view, the Supreme Administrative Court is likely to uphold a lower court’s ruling as RS International Broadcasting and Sport Management secured the sole broadcasting rights before the ‘must have’ rule took effect.
Our forecast suggests RS will see a 23.9% y-y rise in CY14 net profit based on assumptions that ad spending in 2HCY14 will recover from a slowdown in 1HCY14 and the digital TV business will not provide a significant boost to the bottom-line this year. Even though current share prices have nearly matched our target price, we believe the World Cup windfall could be a catalyst to re-rate P/E multiple to 20x-22x, translating into Bt9.55-Bt10.50/share equivalent to its trailing three-year peak average of 24x. We rate RS shares a ‘TRADING BUY.’
Target price: Bt9.55-Bt10.50
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt8.00
Resistance: Bt10.50 Cut loss: Bt7.50
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 18
Sector update &
stock picks for Apr 2014
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 19
Sector update & stock picks for Apr 2014
SectorInvestment
weighting
Stock
pickInvestment theme
2014Mkt Cap
(Btmn)FV (Bt)P/E
(X)
P/BV
(X)
Div
Yld
FOOD NT --- CPF Earnings are poised for return to strong growth mode on solid ASPs in livestock business and the prospect of a recovery in aquaculture business in 2HCY14. 34.50 18.30 1.59 2.86% 216,802
BANK OW --- KBANK Due to a lending slowdown in 1QCY14, our forecast suggests 1QCY14 earnings
will be lower than 1QCY13 but higher than 4QCY13 on lower expenses. The bank also came out on top in the sector in terms of YTD loan growth. 208.00 9.73 1.67 2.11% 426,000
FIN NT --- ASP Thanks to its well-diversified revenue profile, ASP seems to have the lowest risk
of revenue loss at a time when market turnover has nearly halved from a year
ago. MBKET should also perform well in times of market turnover slump given its most effective expense controls. 3.70 9.19 1.55 8.82% 7,159
PETRO OW --- PTTGC Strong demand growth should keep olefins spreads at high levels. Valuation-wise, PTTGC is also viewed as a laggard relative to its peers. 87.00 8.30 1.24 5.41% 325,764
CONMAT NT ▼ SCC Cement demand contracted by 4% in early 1QCY14 after a 9% growth in
1QCY13. In the latest developments, SCC has set CY14 cement demand growth
target of only 2%-3% on concerns over a slowdown in construction activity in
both public and private projects. Growth in overall cement industry is expected to
be modest but SCC is likely to outperform the industry helped by its
petrochemical business. Petrochemical spreads have currently improved in y-y
terms. 500.00 12.95 2.21 4.11% 501,600
PROP NT ▼ SPALI In view of prolonged political uncertainty, delays in new condo launches,
sluggishness in new SDH/TH launches and overall subdued presales picture, we
prefer SPALI based on the high level of backlog, which would allow it to deliver better earnings growth than its peers this year.
24.40 7.61 2.05 5.28% 30,555
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 20
Sector update & stock picks for Apr 2014
SectorInvestment
weighting
Stock
pickInvestment theme
2014
Mkt Cap
(Btmn)FV
(Bt)
P/E
(X)
P/BV
(X)
Div
Yld
ENERG NT --- PTTEP PTTEP remains a laggard relative to its peers. Sales volume growth would be a key earnings driver.
196.00 8.95 1.51 4.46% 623,288
TRANS NT --- BTS For FY15, earnings should reap the full-year benefits from the opening of new BTS
stations and the addition of new cars and trains, new media and increasing ad areas
and fare increases. It is currently awaiting bid results for Beijing Subway Line 16 and bids for new mass transit lines in Thailand.
9.90 7.78 1.69 5.95% 100,080
TTA In addition to a recovery in dry bulk shipping business, operating performance at
MML and Baconco would be strong and 2H is also traditionally the high season. 24.60 23.04 1.08 1.32% 27,386
COMM NT --- CPALL Earnings appear to have already passed the bottom. Top-line and bottom-line are
poised to rise in CY14 on the back of SSSG, new store additions, full-year consolidation of MAKRO and business synergies from the merger.
54.25 33.72 12.08 2.30% 390,765
HELTH NT --- CHG Small-tier hospital CHG appears to have been undeterred by a drop in international
patients as it targets mid-tier clients and its hospitals are not located near protest sites.
12.10 23.86 3.89 2.57% 11,550
PROF --- --- BWG BWG looks to benefit from tighter enforcement of waste disposal regulations on
factories by regulatory agencies after a massive fire at garbage dump in Praeksa. In
addition to a 10%-15% increase in service fees, BWG also aims to boost the
proportion of high-margin income from hazardous industrial waste disposal service this year.
4.28 9.56 1.39 4.07% 2,458
TOURISM OW --- MINT Domestic political pressure remains a downside risk to the outlook. In addition to
tourism promotion by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), the upcoming
Songkran Festival and the summer school break may provide a boost to tourism,
consumption and hotel occupancy rate in the month of Apr. MINT looks to be the
best play in the hotel space under the current political circumstances in view of its well-diversified revenue profile both at home and abroad.
30.00 21.95 3.44 1.45% 99,234
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 21
Sector update & stock picks for Apr 2014
** Based on closing price as of Mar 31, 2014
Sector Investment
weighting
Stock
pickInvestment theme
2014
Mkt Cap
(Btmn)FV
(Bt)
P/E
(X)
P/BV
(X)
Div
Yld
ICT NT ▼ INTUCH Earnings growth would be driven by profit contribution from ADVANC and
THCOM. In our view, earnings growth momentum is likely to continue at
ADVANC as the mobile business would continue to be driven by revenue from
non-voice services, which is projected to grow by at least 20%-25%. For
THCOM, growth would be driven by bandwidth demand in many countries and Thaicom 6 satellite, which was launched into orbit at the start of the year. 97.00 15.64 7.38 5.76% 247,696
ETRON NT --- KCE Share price run-up reflected its strong operating performance. KCE remains one
of our top picks in the electronics space in view of its best-in-class earnings growth profile. 30.50 10.60 2.95 3.25% 16,883
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 22
Better World Green - BWG
Rating Buy
Target Price (Bt) 4.28
Closing Price (Bt) 3.44
Expected Capital Gains (%) 24.4%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 4.1%
Expected Total Return (%) 28.5%
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.25
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 2,458
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 2,750
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 8.3
52 w eek range 2.02 - 3.56
Major Shareholders (%)
5.7
3.7
2.9
Valuation Method
P/E'14 (12x)
CG Report - 2013
(Very Good)
3. Mrs. Charussri Pongpirodom
1. Mr. Suw at Luengviriya
2. Mr. Sippakorn Kaw sa-art
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Volume, mn BWG TB EQUITY SETI rebased
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 77.54 0.11 0.04 1.88 7.53 31.27 1.16 1.83 12/13 A 163.20 0.23 0.11 2.31 11.13 14.96 3.20 1.49 12/14 E 285.06 0.36 0.14 2.48 17.13 9.56 4.07 1.39 12/15 E 328.43 0.41 0.16 2.77 16.97 8.39 4.65 1.24
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 23
Better World Green - BWG
Fire-ravaged garbage dump in Praeksa has caused related government agencies to be sued for negligence and makes regulatory agencies to tighten enforcement of waste disposal regulations on factories and impose more penalties on violators in terms of fine and imprisonment, as well as license revocation.
To cash in on tougher law enforcement, BWG hosted its first road show at Bang Pa-In Industrial Estate and it could secure more than 100 new clients. BWG also plans to embark on more road shows at other industrial estates. Road shows aside, BWG is likely to win a contract to remove and dispose around 100,000-200,000 tons of waste at Praeksa landfill as it is the only capable industrial waste management firm to do this kind of work.
In addition to a 10%-15% increase in service fees, BWG aims to boost the proportion of high-margin income from hazardous industrial waste disposal service to 70% of total revenue this year from 55% last year. This year BWG would also earn an additional stream of revenue from its refuse-derived fuel (RDF) project, which started late last year. On this basis, strong earnings growth momentum is set to continue this year. BWG also announced a dividend of Bt0.11/share for its CY13 operating performance. The stock will trade ex-dividend (XD) on May 9, 2014. We call BWG shares a ‘BUY’ with a Bt4.28/share target price based on a P/E multiple of 12x.
Target price: Bt4.28
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt3.30-Bt3.24
Resistance: Bt4.00 Cut loss: Bt3.16
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 24
Chularat Hospital - CHG
Rating Accumulate
Target Price (Bt) 12.10
Closing Price (Bt) 10.50
Expected Capital Gains (%) 15.2%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 3.0%
Expected Total Return (%) 18.2%
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 11,550
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 10,429
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 0.6
52 w eek range 8.1 - 12
Major Shareholders (%)
18.1
11.2
10.3
Valuation Method
DCF (Wacc=9.67%, Terminal g=4%)
CG Report - 2013
N/R
3. Mr. Apieum Panyapol
1. Ms Kannikar Palussin
2. Mrs Kobkul Panyapol
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0102030405060708090
Volume, mn CHG TB EQUITY SETI rebased
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 335.01 0.38 0.51 1.28 29.82 28.42 4.72 8.44 12/13 A 414.38 0.38 0.27 2.40 15.70 28.42 2.50 4.50 12/14 E 488.26 0.44 0.31 2.71 16.39 24.55 2.87 3.99 12/15 E 538.97 0.49 0.34 2.89 16.97 22.04 3.15 3.74
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 25
Chularat Hospital - CHG
CHG plans to build a new Chularat Akanae Hospital in Prachinburi Province to tap clients around industrial estates including the like of Rojana Industrial Estate, Kabinburi Industrial Estate, and 304 Industrial Park. The new hospital will have 20 OPD examination rooms and 100-150 IPD beds. It is slated for partial opening with two OPD examination rooms and four ER beds in Apr 2014. Once construction is fully completed, the hospital can accommodate up to 100,000 patients under government schemes. The hospital is scheduled for full opening over the next two years in Apr 2016.
The Chularat Hospital 3 (CHG3) is the first privately-run hospital with an integrated heart center to join government healthcare schemes. It is expected that the increasing number of patients under the government’s Bt30 universal healthcare scheme will be referred to CHG.
This year CHG also plans to add 48 IPD beds to the capacity of Chularat Hospital 11 (CHG11), bringing the total number of beds to 434, a move that could allow it to accommodate more patients under government schemes. The number of insured patients under government schemes at CHG rose to 321,933 as of Feb 16, 2014 from 309,624 in 3QCY13. CHG has a maximum capacity to accommodate 360,000 insured patients under government schemes and the figure could rise further after it adds more IPD beds to its capacity this year.
Our forecast suggests CHG will achieve a CY14 net profit of Bt488.19mn, up 17.81% y-y based on assumptions that gross profit margin will expand to 36% in CY14 from 34.89% in CY13.
Target price: Bt12.10
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt10.30
Resistance: Bt11.30 Cut loss: Bt10.10
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 26
Minor International - MINT
Rating Buy
Target Price (Bt) 30.00
Closing Price (Bt) 24.80
Expected Capital Gains (%) 21.0%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.5%
Expected Total Return (%) 22.4%
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.20
Market Cap. (Bt mn) 99,235
Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 120,846
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 8.9
52 w eek range 18.4 - 29.75
Major Shareholders (%)
16.5
11.9
9.0
Valuation Method
DCF (WACC = 8.80%, Terminal g = 3.50%)
CG Report - 2013
(Excellent)
1. MINOR HOLDING (THAILAND) CO.LTD.
2. UBS AG SINGAPORE BRANCH
3. THAI NVDR CO.LTD.
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
Volume, mn MINT TB EQUITY SETI rebased
Conso' Profits EPS DPS BV ROE P/E Yield P/BV
Ending (Btm) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (%) (x) (%) (x)
12/12 A 3,408.55 0.94 0.30 4.85 20.05 26.45 1.21 5.12
12/13 A 4,101.38 1.04 0.35 6.27 23.76 23.73 1.41 3.96
12/14 E 4,526.99 1.13 0.36 7.29 23.43 21.92 1.46 3.40
12/15 E 5,304.06 1.33 0.42 8.22 24.87 18.71 1.71 3.02
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 27
Minor International - MINT
In addition to tourism promotion by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), the upcoming Songkran Festival and the summer school break may provide a boost to tourism, consumption and hotel occupancy rate in the month of Apr.
MINT has a competitive edge over its rival in terms of its well-diversified revenue profile. Hotel and restaurant businesses contribute 49% and 41% of its total revenue respectively. Revenue contribution from its hotels in Bangkok accounts for a mere 7% of total revenue. The proportion of revenue from overseas operations has also risen to 29% of total revenue.
In view of continued business diversification into overseas markets and the prospect of a rapid recovery in tourism after the end of the political crisis, management remains confident about its operating outlook this year. MINT would also continue to press ahead with its expansion plan in hotel, restaurant and real estate businesses.
Our forecast suggests MINT will deliver a CY14 net profit of Bt4,527mn, up 10% y-y. MINT also announced a dividend of Bt0.35/share for its CY13 performance. The stock will trade ex-dividend (XD) on Apr 11, 2014. We rate MINT shares a ‘BUY’ with a Bt30/share target price.
Political factor remains a key factor to watch. In our view, much of its weak earnings outlook for 1HCY14 appears to have already been baked into the stock price and we see current share price weakness as a good opportunity to accumulate the stock which offers some upside from current trading levels.
Target price: Bt30.00
Short-term technical view:
Support: Bt24.00
Resistance: Bt26.50 Cut loss: Bt23.70
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 28
Economic calendar for Apr 2014
Apr 1 Apr 2 Apr 3 Apr 4
• US: Markit US
manufacturing PMI,
construction spending,
total vehicle sales
• CH: Manufacturing PMI
• EU: Markit Euro-zone
manufacturing PMI
• TH: CPI
• US: MBA
mortgage
applications,
factory orders
• EU: PPI
• US: Trade balance, initial jobless
claims, ISM non-manufacturing
composite
• CH: Non-manufacturing PMI
• EU: Markit Eurozone services
PMI, retail sales, ECB interest rate
decision
• US: Change in
nonfarm
payrolls,
unemployment
rate
• EU: Markit
Eurozone retail
PMI
Apr 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 11
• EU: Sentix
investor
confidence
• US: MBA
mortgage
applications,
wholesale
inventories
• US: Fed minutes from Mar 18-19
FOMC meeting, initial jobless
claims, import price index
• CH: Trade balance, new Yuan
loans, aggregate financing RMB
• EU: ECB monthly report
• TH: Consumer confidence
• US: PPI final
demand,
University of
Michigan
confidence
• CH: PPI, CPI
Source: Bloomberg
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 29
Economic calendar for Apr 2014
Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18
• US: Retail sales
advance,
business
inventories
• EU: Industrial
production
• US: CPI
• EU: Trade balance
• US: MBA mortgage
applications, housing
starts
• CH: Retail sales,
industrial production,
GDP
• EU: CPI
• US: Federal Reserve
Beige Book, initial
jobless claims
• EU: ECB current
account,
• TH: Car cales
• CH: Mar
property prices
Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25
• US: Richmond Fed
manufacturing
index, existing
home sales
• EU: Construction
output, consumer
confidence
US: MBA mortgage
applications, Markit US
manufacturing PMI, new
home sales
CH: HSBC China
manufacturing PMI
EU: Markit Eurozone
manufacturing PMI,
Markit Eurozone services
PMI, Markit Eurozone
composite PMI
TH: BoT benchmark
interest rate decision
• US: Durable goods
orders, initial jobless
claims
• TH: Customs trade
balance
• US: Markit US
composite
PMI, Markit
US services
PMI,
University of
Michigan
confidence
Source: Bloomberg
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 30
Economic calendar for Apr 2014
Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30
• US: Pending
home sales,
employment cost
index revisions
• TH: Capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
production index
• US: S&P/CS
composite-20,
consumer
confidence index
• EU: Economic
confidence
US: MBA mortgage
applications, GDP
EU: Core CPI
TH: Trade balance,
BoP current account
balance, business
sentiment index
Source: Bloomberg
The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein. 31
Investment return calculation principles
Model portfolio performance
in Mar 2014
PSR portfolio at +4.98% vs. SET index at +3.84%
Top three gainers/outperformers
KCE, TTA, CPALL
Top three losers/underperformers
SCC, PTTGC, ASP
Cumulative model portfolio
performance for the period of
Jan-Mar 2014
PSR portfolio at +12.74% vs. SET index at +5.97%
Duration of holding period 1 month
Number of recommended stocks 10-15 stocks
Investment rating ‘BUY’ only
Calculation of investment returns Buying and selling at the closing price of the month.
Dividend is included in the calculation if the holding period for
portfolio covers XD date.
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnTotal Return RecommendationRecommendationRecommendationRecommendation RatingRatingRatingRating RemarksRemarksRemarksRemarks >+20%>+20%>+20%>+20% BuyBuyBuyBuy 1111 >20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20% AccumulateAccumulateAccumulateAccumulate 2222 +5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the current pricet pricet pricet price ----5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral 3333 Trade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current price ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20%20%20%20% ReduceReduceReduceReduce 4444 ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price
<<<<----20%20%20%20% SellSellSellSell 5555 >20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price
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