Editors’ preface

The Top Spec Geography series is designed to be used by 16–19 year olds in schools and colleges. The writing teams, combining the expertise of a specialist in their field with that of an experienced classroom teacher, have been chosen to ensure that contemporary and exciting geography, which brings together the latest research and thinking on topical themes, is accessible to post-16 students.

Each book in the series consists of:• written chapters, with

illustrations and data which complement the text

• activities for use in groups and as guides for private study. Some activities are designed to encourage discussion, while others help to promote students’ understanding of the issues

• ideas for further research: most post-16 teaching encourages students to become independent learners and some specifications have research units designed to help prepare students for this

• a glossary of key words and terms.

In addition, there are online resources which have been written to extend and complement the book, and will ensure that the most up-to-date research and data are available. Each chapter will remind you about these

resources which can be found at www.geography.org.uk/topspec.

Although the books have been written mainly with geography students in mind, the series may also prove useful for students:• taking public examination or diploma courses in other subjects• who want to read beyond their

exam courses in order to apply or prepare for university

• looking at new topics in their first year of university.

Emerging Superpowers: India and ChinaAlthough India and China will have been studied at key stages 3 and 4 as very large and important countries, this book puts the two countries in a geopolitical framework appropriate for post-16 studies of superpower geographies.

The book follows a themed structure, looking at population migration, economic development and environmental impacts, as well as current global importance and aspirations. It deliberately separates out India and China for students who need to choose one of the countries to study, yet at all stages throughout the book it invites them to make comparisons by exploring the similarities and investigating the reasons for their different pathways and progress.

This book will provide particular support for students studying:• Edexcel’s A2 ‘Contested

Planet’ unit• WJEC’s A2 contemporary

geography and research theme (China or India)

Other students who may also find this book useful include:• IB, OCR, AQA and CCEA students

needing a contemporary perspective on issues in their population globalisation and development units

• students studying politics, world development, environmental and general studies

• those preparing for HE courses in international relations and development

This book also links well with the Top Spec Geography titleEnergy Questions.

Bob Digby and Sue WarnApril 2010

EDITORS’ PREFACE

4

Each book in the Top Spec Geography series has a range of supplementary materials and resources including:

• extra information• extended question lists• model answers and mark

schemes• links to relevant websites• extended glossaries• photo galleries.

To access these go to www.geography.org.uk/topspec, then click on the button for this book. You will then be asked for your password.

The unique password for this

Online resources

book is

11

EMERGING SUPERPOWERS

The view from ChinaChina’s population of 1.3 billion is the largest in the world. It is concentrated in the eastern and coastal part of the country (see Figure 2.1), and along major rivers such as the Yangtze, Hwang He and Huai. Much of this huge country is almost uninhabited – the steep Himalayas; the dry grasslands in the north-central region; and the Gobi Desert in the north.

There are officially 56 ethnic groups in China but 92% of the population belongs to one group, the Han Chinese. The minority

groups live mainly in the border regions where it is easier for them to maintain their own customs and traditions.

Administratively, China is organised into provinces and some other regions with a little more independence from central government (see Figure 2.2).

Nearly 60% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas. There is a significant divide between rural and urban populations, reinforced during the Mao years. The household registration system (hukou) ensured that people could only live where they were registered

(see Figure 3.3, p. 23). This made it difficult to migrate between urban and rural areas, and effectively kept the two populations apart. Progress and development in urban areas was not matched in rural areas. Consequently many rural areas are extremely backward, traditional, have very poor services and amenities, and are a world apart from the modern regional and provincial cities. As China modernises, the balance between rural and urban populations is changing to become more typical of developed nations (Figure 2.3).

2. Population powerhouses?

MONGOLIA

KAZAKHSTAN

INDIA

C H I N A

NORTHKOREA

SOUTHKOREA

VIETNAM

LAOS

MYANMAR

THAILAND

JAPAN

TAIWAN

BHUTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

PAKISTAN

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GANSU

LanzhouQINGHAI

SICHUAN

Chengdu

YUNNAN

Kunming GUIZHOUGuiyang

GUANGXI

Nanning

GUANGDONGGuangzhou

HUNANChangsha

JIANGXI

Nancheng

FUJIANFuzhou

P a c i f i cO c e a n

ZHEJIANG

Hangzhou

ANHUI

HefeiHUBEI

HENAN

Zhengzhou

SHAANXI

Xi'an

SHANXI

SHANDONG

Jinan

JIANGSUNanjing

HAINAN

Haikou

HEILONGJIANGHarbin

JILINChangchun

LIAONING

Shenyang

HEBEIShijiazhuang

BEIJING

TIANJIN

SHANGHAI

CHONGQING

XINJIANG

XIZANG (TIBET)

NEI MONGOL(INNER MONGOLIA)

Huhehaote

Yinchuan

NINGXIA

AOMEN (MACAU)

XIANGGANG (HONG KONG)

Wuhan

Taiyuan

Wulumuqi

Lhasa

Xining

NEPAL

500250 750 1000 km0

N

0 – 49

Population density(per sq km)

Population(thousands)

50 – 99100 – 299

500 – 699700 – 999

300 – 499

0 – 999

1000 – 1999

2000 – 2999

4000 – 4999

5000+

3000 – 3999

1000+

Figure 2.1 Distribution of population in China. (Population density = 2007 estimate; city population = 2005 estimate).Source: GeoHive website.

12

CHAPTER 2

Population growth rates have varied a great deal. After 1950, reductions in infant and adult mortality led to rapid population growth and increased fertility.

Figure 2.4 shows the number of people in China by selected age groups. The period between 1995 and 2025 is critical for China. Fertility rates must stabilise within

this period to avoid another baby boom. The fertility rate in 2007 was 1.7, which suggests that the population will remain below the replacement level for the next 50 years.

Since the 1990s China has experienced high life expectancy, below-replacement fertility and an ageing population. Two

fundamental national policies have underpinned China’s development: the modernisation of the economy and the control of population growth. China’s leadership is very much aware of the links between population, economic growth and resources, and also of the huge funding requirements for welfare, health and education. Chinese demographic trends have responded to economic modernisation and environmental pressures, and this has had a major impact on population policies and practices.

Historic and cultural factors affecting China’s populationPopulation control in China, whether by the family or by the state, is not a new phenomenon, and the Chinese experience needs to be understood in the context of its history and culture, and of what to Western minds is simply the stark brutality of life. There have been a number of pressures on resources, many of which have led to infanticide. Universal and early marriage for girls led to high birth rates. Inheritance patterns made divided farms too small to be viable and led to food insecurity. Rural peasants lived in poverty and there were many periods of widespread and extreme misery. In the 18th century, famines and epidemics had a major impact on births and deaths, hence the description of China as an example of the ‘classic Malthusian model’ (Figure 2.5).

Since 3000 BC there has been a prejudice against daughters, and female infants have been killed in order to manage population pressure. Only sons carried the family name, while daughters were considered culturally inferior. Traditionally women left their family home to join that of their husband and were therefore regarded as a net economic and emotional loss. When lack of resources put people under pressure, infanticide was used to control the number and sex of children. There is still a bias against girls and they are more

Administrative areas

Provinces (22) Each has its own Communist Party of China Provincial Committee, which has many delegated powers.

Municipalities (4) The four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing.

Autonomous Regions (5) Regions where there is a significant ethnic minority group, with a governor from that group: Tibet (Tibetans), Inner Mongolia (Mongols), Xinjiang (Uighur), Ningxia (Hui) and Guangxi (Zuang).

Special Administrative Areas (2) These former European colonies have a little more independence from the People’s Republic: Hong Kong, formerly British, was returned to China in 1997, and Macau, formerly Portuguese, was returned in 1999.

Figure 2.2 Administrative organisation in China.

Year Total population Urban population Rural population Urban (millions) (millions) (millions) (%)

1949 542

1954 600

1964 700

1974 900

1981 1000

1988 1100

1995 1200 450 779 37

2000 1312 530 781 40

2010 1428 702 725 49

2020 1530 875 655 57

2030 1594 1016 579 64

2040 1603 1122 481 70

2060 1540 1233 307 80

2087 1369 1218 151 89

Numbers in orange indicate estimates.

Figure 2.3 Population change in mainland China. Source: Shen, 1998, p. 34.

13

EMERGING SUPERPOWERS

likely to be neglected as regards nutrition and basic health care. There are also marked contrasts between urban and rural areas regarding attitudes towards women and girls.

Population policiesMao’s view was that a big population was a powerful population. However,

high fertility rates during the 1960s increased population pressures and the Wan Xi Shao policy was encouraged (Figure 2.6). The issue of population size and availability of resources became a key concern in the years after Mao’s death in 1976. The state aimed for a four-fold increase in living standards by 2000 so that China could be seen to be as

developed as other world powers. Reducing population growth would help this and consequently the One Child policy was introduced in 1979.

There is some debate at present as to the necessity for this draconian policy. The population pyramid for 1982 (Figure 2.7) shows how fertility rates were already falling before the implementation of the One Child policy, especially in urban areas such as Shanghai. Abortions, the increased use of contraceptives, the Wan Xi Shao policy and modernising influences were changing women’s attitudes before 1979. By the late 1970s, even in rural areas, between one third and one fifth of women had had an induced abortion. China had one of the highest rates of contraceptive use in the world. National fertility rates fell from 5.7 in 1970 to 2.8 in 1979, the most rapid fall ever recorded in any country. China is now dominated by families with single children – the ‘little emperors’, so called because parents put all their efforts and attention into raising their one child, preferably a boy.

How strictly is the One Child policy enforced?The One Child policy sets the minimum age of marriage, the maximum number of children, and involves the use of abortion, contraception and sterilisation. Although families have been educated about their ‘national responsibility’, there are reports of women in local areas being coerced as Communist Party officials try to meet targets for

700,000

300,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

200,000

100,000

01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20502040

5 – 190 – 4Age groups 20 – 49 50 +

Num

ber

of p

eopl

e

Year

Figure 2.4 Population growth in China. Source: United Nations Population Division.

There are theories linking demographic systems to social, economic and cultural factors. Thomas Malthus’s population–resource model contrasted Western and non-Western societies. He suggested that family planning required careful calculations about the costs and benefits of having children – to decide deliberately to delay or to abstain from procreation.

Today this is viewed as individual decision-making, and is linked to increases in literacyand the growth of market economies. However, it is clear that the Chinese have beentaking sophisticated (and hard) decisions about family size for many generations.

China has been held up as the classic example of so-called positive checks to population, of which famines have been the most powerful. There was a marked increase in mortality and a decline in fertility during the Great Leap Forward in 1959–61. During this time there were an estimated 30 million premature deaths and 33 million lost or postponed births. There was a significant increase in fertility when the famine was reduced in 1962.

Figure 2.5 China and the Malthusian model.

Wan Xi Shao policy:

Later: delaying marriage means women have babies when they are slightly older.

Longer: ensuring a longer gap between pregnancies.

Fewer: ‘later’ and ‘longer’ ultimately means fewer births per woman.

Figure 2.6 The Wan Xi Shao policy.

54

CHAPTER 6

Who wins in the superpower stakes?The world looks at China and Indiawith some awe and trepidation.Although they are relatively poornations, they look set to transform theglobal economy in the 21st century.Both governments have high hopesfor the potential global influence theycan wield, and many Indians andChinese feel very positive about theirfuture. Urban populations in particularare embracing global cultures, andIndian and Chinese cultures contributesignificantly to global music, literature,theatre and film, and of course, food.Their increased economic strength islikely to affect geopolitics to the extentthat the current dominance of the USAis threatened.

China has the economic might andthe status of a permanent seat onthe United Nations Security Council.India has significant internationalgoodwill, enhanced by its stabilityand long-standing democracy. Some

supporters in the UN propose thatIndia should also join an expandedSecurity Council to reflect its statusas a founder member of the UN.Both countries are members of allthe major global institutions andorganisations. India is seen by therest of the world as an importantstabilising counterbalance to China.India and China are always wary ofeach other’s political manoeuvres,particularly in relation to the USA.

There is no doubt that China is earning a huge balance of trade surplus. It is exercising its economic muscle by making substantial foreign investments, including US treasury securities. China has made the largest investment of any country to enable the USA to finance its current account deficit (Figure 6.1). India’s foreign investments are not of the same order of magnitude.

The economies of the two giants are nevertheless nudging closer

together as a result of investments by transnational firms: goods made in China use software from India.

6. Global aspirations

1.8

US$

(tri

llion

s)

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0‘02 ‘10‘08‘06

Year‘04

India

Merchandiseexports

China90

US$

(bill

ions

)

75

60

45

30

15

0‘02 ‘10‘08‘06

Year‘04

India

IT and serviceexports

China18

%

15

12

9

6

3

0‘00 ‘04‘03‘02

Year‘01

India

Average return oninvested capital

China

36

% o

f tot

al b

ank

loan

s 30

24

18

12

6

0‘99 ‘03‘02‘01

Year‘00

India

Non-performingloans

China66

US$

(bill

ions

)

55

44

33

22

11

0‘80

0.6 0.8

‘04‘00Year

‘90

India

Foreign directinvestment

ChinaFigure 6.2 Economic strengthsof China and India: China will remain the manufacturing giant (1) while India soars in technology and services (2). India’s companies are more profitable (3) and its banks are in better shape (4) but China lures more investment (5). Source: BusinessWeek,22–29 August 2009, pp. 34–5.

Country Amount (billion $)

China 800.5

Japan 724.5

UK 220.0

Brazil 138.1

Russia 118.0

Hong Kong 115.3

Luxembourg 92.2

Taiwan 77.4

Switzerland 68.1

Germany 56.3

Figure 6.1 Countries owningUS treasury securities, July 2009.Source: Stewart, 2009.

1

4

2

5

3