education, employment, inequality and artificial...

EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017

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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

NOVEMBER 1, 2017

Thomas Bailey Director, Community College Research Center Global HR Forum 2017 Seoul, Korea

Education, Employment, Inequality and Artificial Intelligence


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§ Questions: – How extensive and what is the nature of this loss? – How can government adopt appropriate systems and policies that

can solve the job reduction problem?

§ My focus: – What can higher education do to help address potential

employment problems for students from low income backgrounds?

Future of Jobs predicts a loss of 5 million jobs due to robots and artificial intelligence


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§ “With regard to labor productivity itself… the United States is in one of its slowest-growth periods since the end of WWII” (Sprague, 2016)

§ The decline in labor productivity is substantial: from 2007 to 2016, the growth in labor productivity, output and hours worked was less than half as fast as the average postwar economic cycle

§ This finding of declining productivity is widely supported (e.g., Gordon, 2015; Syverson, 2017; Autor, 2015; Autor & Salomons, 2017)

§ It is not measurement error: the decline is too large to be explained by a shift from manufacturing (where productivity is easier to measure) to services (where it is harder to measure); and measurement error would have to have grown over time

Labor Productivity is Low


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90

100

110

120

130

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trend 2001-2007

Trend 1947-2007

Actual Productivity 2007-2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Jan. 2017)

Labor Productivity Trends Index = 100 at start of business cycle


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0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4

Source: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-6/below-trend-the-us-productivity- slowdown-since-the-great-recession.htm#_edn3

Annual U.S. Productivity Growth Rate


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But There are Problems: Labor Force Participation is Dropping


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55

65

75

85

1992 2000 2008 2017

BA Degree

HS Graduate

AA (Some College)

Forces causing decline in participation

Robots

Gig economy

Educational Inequality

Baby boomers

Wealth inequality

Anti-work tax code

Offshoring

China/Mexico


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Education alone cannot solve the problem of adjustment to technological change or growing inequality, but it can play an important role if it too can make fundamental changes.


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Personal Earnings (2016 dollars)

Source: Merged March CPS files


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§ Value of an Associates Degree Compared to High School Degree – Average 13% for Males – Average 20% for Females – But differs by field (Associate of Arts or General Studies mainly

valuable for transfer) § Benefits to Society Exceed Costs

– Economic Growth – Health – Welfare Receipt – Reduced Crime

Community Colleges are a good investment for students and society

0 5

10

15

Per

cent

of S

tude

nts

0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank

Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Duke

Parent Income Distribution by Percentile Ivy Plus Colleges

Source: The Equality of Opportunity Project--http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/documents/

14.5% of students from top 1%

0 5

10

15

Per

cent

of S

tude

nts

0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank

Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Duke




0 5

10

15

Per

cent

of S

tude

nts

0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank


13.5% of students from bottom 50%



0 5

10

15

Per

cent

of S

tude

nts

0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank


13.5% of students from bottom 50%

More students from the top 1% than the bottom 50%



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0 20

40

60

80

P

erce

nt o

f Stu

dent

s

1 2 3 4 5 Parent Income Quintile

Harvard University UC Berkeley SUNY-Stony Brook Glendale Community College

Parent Income Distributions by Quintile for 1980-82 Birth Cohorts At Selected Colleges


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18% 21% 24% 24% 27% 33% 37%

15% 16%

16% 15% 19%

21% 22%

16% 17% 13% 14%

16%

16% 15%

21% 23% 21% 21%

20%

18% 16% 30%

22% 25% 26% 19%

11% 9%

Private Research Sector

Private Master's Sector Private Baccalaureate Sector

Public Research Sector

Public Master's Sector Public Baccalaureate Sector

Public Community College Sector

Bottom SES Fourth SES Quintlie Third SES Quintlie Second SES Quintile Top SES Quintile

Socioeconomic distribution at colleges by institutional type, 2011-12

CCRC Analysis using National Postsecondary Student Aid Study: 2012 Undergraduates (PowerStats); Income Quintile is based on 2012 household income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (Table H-1). Both dependent and independent students are combined.


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Total operating and education & related expenditures per FTE student (i.e., excluding sponsored research & auxiliary enterprise), FY 2013

Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2016). Trends in College Spending 2003–2013 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure A3, 24–27. Data Shown in 2013 Dollars.

$71,597

$22,662

$29,479

$39,793

$19,310 $20,352 $14,090

$37,812

$18,782 $23,138

$17,252 $13,356 $14,044

$10,804

Private Research

Sector

Private Master's Sector

Private Bachelor's

Sector

Public Research

Sector

Public Master's Sector

Public Bachelor's

Sector

Public Community

College Sector

Total Operating Education & Related


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Changes in total operating spending per student over time, AY 2003–2013

Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2013). Trends in College Spending 2003–2013 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure A3, 24–27. Data Shown in 2013 Dollars.

$8,667

$1,581 $971

$5,413

$1,677 $1,602 $1,044

$4,968

$2,070 $1,745 $1,828

$1,004 $1,105 $447

Private Research

Sector

Private Master's Sector

Private Bachelor's

Sector

Public Research

Sector

Public Master's Sector

Public Bachelor's

Sector

Public Community

College Sector

Total Operating Education & Related


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Only about a third of community college students earn a degree in 6 years

36%

20%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Earned a degree at any institution Still enrolled at an institution Not enrolled

Shapiro et al. (2014). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.


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§ Specific or vocational education (high completion and early employment) § General education (lower completion but better adaptability and long term earnings growth

Two Approaches


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$2,500

$3,500

$4,500

$5,500

$6,500

$7,500

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Certificate

College Non-completer

Years Since College Entry

Associate Degree

Quarterly Earnings


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Earnings from Vocational Education Attenuate in the Long Run

General Education, Vocational Education, and Labor-Market Outcomes over the Life-Cycle

Eric A. Hanushek, et. al.

Journal of Human Resources 2017 52(1): 49-88

“With rapid technological change, gains in youth employment from vocational education may be offset by less adaptability and thus diminished employment later in life…. Using micro data for 18 countries from the International Adult Literacy Survey, we find strong support for the existence of such a trade-off.”


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Percent of all Job Ads Requiring Skill

Cognitive 37% Social 36% Cognitive and social 25%

Source: Deming and Kahn (2017)

Employers Want Both Cognitive and Social Skills

Scale of Skills Demand in 2020

Cognitive Abilities 15% Systems Skills 17% Complex Problem Solving 36% Content Skills 10% Process Skills 18% Social Skills 19% Resource Management Skills 13% Technical Skills 12% Physical Abilities 4%

Source: Future of Jobs Survey, World Economic Forum.


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§ written and oral communication § teamwork skills § ethical decision making § critical thinking § ability to apply knowledge in real-world settings

Employer Priorities

Source: Hart Research Associates. 2015. Falling Short? College Learning and Career Success. Washington, DC: Association of American Colleges and Universities.


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Educational experiences that teach them how to solve problems with people whose views are different from their own

Employers are in agreement with a broad set of college learning goals that extend beyond workplace preparation.

26%

32%

27%

41%

43%

57%

Strongly agree with this statement about the aims of college learning Somewhat agree

91%

86%

87%

82%

78%

80%

Ethical issues and public debates important in their field

Direct learning experiences working with others to solve problems important in their communities

Courses that build knowledge, judgment, commitment to communities, ensure integrity/vitality of democracy

Acquire broad knowledge in liberal arts and sciences

Learn about societies and cultures outside the U.S. and global issues and developments


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§ Funding § Completion § Content § Program design

Solutions


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NOVEMBER 1, 2017

Please visit us on the web at http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu

where you can download presentations, reports, and briefs, and sign-up for news announcements. We’re also on Facebook and Twitter. Community College Research Center Teachers College, Columbia University 525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027 E-mail: [email protected] Telephone: 212.678.3091

For more information

@CommunityCCRC #RedesigningCCs

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