eea impacts of europes changing climate 2004

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Impacts of Europe'schanging climate

An indicator-based assessment

EEA Report No 2/2004


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Legal noticeThe contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of theEuropean Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither theEuropean Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of theAgency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in thisreport.

All rights reservedNo part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronicor mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrievalsystem, without the permission in writing from the copyright holder. For rights oftranslation or reproduction please contact EEA project manager Ove Caspersen (addressinformation below).

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Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication.

Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004

ISBN 92-9167-692-6

EEA, Copenhagen, 2004

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iii

Contents

Acknowledgements .............................................................1

Summary ............................................................................3

1 Introduction ...............................................................10

1.1 Purpose and scope of this report ....................................................... 10

1.2 Outline ......................................................................................... 10

2 Background ................................................................12

2.1 Past and future climate change ......................................................... 122.1.1 Natural changes in the climate .............................................. 122.1.2 Human induced climate change ............................................. 122.1.3 Future climate change ......................................................... 13

2.2 Climate change policy and sustainable development ............................ 14

2.2.1 Current policy framework ..................................................... 152.2.2 Long-term policies and sustainable development ..................... 152.2.3 Climate change and other environmental issues and policies ..... 16

3 Climate change impacts in Europe ..............................17

3.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 17

3.1.1 Indicators and vulnerability ................................................. 173.1.2 Selection of indicators ......................................................... 173.1.3 Data and information sources for this report ........................... 183.1.4 Presentation of indicators ..................................................... 19

3.2 Atmosphere and climate ................................................................. 20

3.2.1 Greenhouse gas concentrations ............................................. 203.2.2 Global and European air temperature ..................................... 233.2.3 European precipitation ......................................................... 273.2.4 Temperature and precipitation extremes ................................ 30

3.3 Glaciers, snow and ice ..................................................................... 33

3.3.1 Glaciers ............................................................................. 333.3.2 Snow cover ........................................................................ 353.3.3 Arctic sea ice ...................................................................... 37

3.4 Marine systems .............................................................................. 40

3.4.1 Rise in sea level .................................................................. 403.4.2 Sea surface temperature ...................................................... 433.4.3 Marine growing season ........................................................ 463.4.4 Marine species composition .................................................. 49

3.5 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity .............................................. 51

3.5.1 Plant species composition ..................................................... 513.5.2 Plant species distribution in mountain regions ......................... 543.5.3 Terrestrial carbon uptake ..................................................... 573.5.4 Plant phenology and growing season ..................................... 60

3.5.5 Bird survival ....................................................................... 62

3.6 Water ............................................................................................ 64

3.6.1 Annual river discharge ......................................................... 64


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3.7 Agriculture .................................................................................... 67

3.7.1 Crop yield .......................................................................... 67

3.8 Economy ....................................................................................... 70

3.8.1 Economic losses ................................................................. 70

3.9 Human health ................................................................................ 73

3.9.1 Heatwaves ......................................................................... 733.9.2 Flooding ............................................................................ 753.9.3 Tick-borne diseases ............................................................. 77

4 Adaptation .................................................................79

4.1 Need for adaptation ....................................................................... 79

4.2 Development of an adaptation strategy ............................................. 79

4.3 Examples of adaptation strategies ..................................................... 81

5 Uncertainties, data availability and future needs ........825.1 Causes of uncertainty ...................................................................... 82

5.2 Data availability ............................................................................. 83

5.3 Need for additional indicators ........................................................... 86

References ........................................................................89


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v

List of maps and graphs

Figure 2.1 Reconstructed record of the global average temperature andatmospheric CO

2concentration over the last 400 000 years ........

Figure 2.2 Reconstructed and measured temperature over the last 1 000years (northern hemisphere) and projected temperature rise inthe next 100 years ................................................................

Figure 3.1 Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared with theyear 1750 ............................................................................

Figure 3.2 Projected increase of GHG concentration in the atmosphere forfour different possible futures .................................................

Figure 3.3 Observed annual, winter and summer temperature deviationsin Europe .............................................................................

Map 3.1 Annual temperature deviation in Europe in 2003 ........................

Map 3.2 Projected temperature changes in Europe up to 2080 .................

Map 3.3 Annual precipitation changes in Europe for the period 19002000 ...................................................................................

Map 3.4 Projected change in summer precipitation in Europe up to 2080

Map 3.5 Change in frequency of summer days in Europe between 1976and 1999 .............................................................................

Map 3.6 Changes in frequency of very wet days in Europe between1976 and 1999 ....................................................................

Figure 3.4 Cumulative net balance of glaciers from all European glacierregions ................................................................................

Figure 3.5 Deviations of monthly snow cover extent over the northernhemisphere lands (including Greenland) ...................................

Figure 3.6 Deviations of seasonal snow cover (solid curve) versusdeviations of temperature (dashed curve) .................................

Figure 3.7 Monthly deviations of Arctic sea ice extent ................................

Figure 3.8 Regional changes of mean sea ice draft in the Arctic ...............

Map 3.7 Change of sea level at selected stations in Europe from 1896 to1996 ...................................................................................

Figure 3.9 Sea level rise at selected European gauge stations .....................

Figure 3.10 Projected global average sea level rise .....................................

Figure 3.11 Annual sea surface temperature (SST) deviations averagedover the northern hemisphere .................................................

Figure 3.12 Sea surface temperature in winter and summer in theNorwegian Sea, the Baltic sea and the western MediterraneanSea .....................................................................................

Figure 3.13 Long-term monthly means of phytoplankton colour index in thecentral North Sea ..................................................................

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Figure 3.14 Deviations of winter and summer sea surface temperature inthe North Sea ......................................................................

Figure 3.15 Changes in the seasonal timing of decapod larvae in the NorthSea ....................................................................................

Figure 3.16 Changes in species composition between a cold temperate anda warm temperate species of copepod in the North Sea ..............

Figure 3.17 Changes in frequencies of groups of plant species adapted to'warm' and 'cold' conditions in the Netherlands and Norway .......

Map 3.8 Share of stable species in 2100, compared with 1990 ................

Figure 3.18 Change in species richness on 30 high summits of the easternAlps during the twentieth century ...........................................

Map 3.9 The potential response by 2100 of three currently commonmountain species to climate change .........................................

Map 3.10 Annual carbon uptake of the terrestrial biosphere ......................

Figure 3.19 Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere ..............................

Figure 3.20 Inter-annual variation in European carbon fluxes from thebiosphere to the atmosphere .................................................

Figure 3.21 Observed changes in growing season length .............................

Figure 3.22 Greenness of vegetation in Europe ...........................................

Figure 3.23 Projected no. of growing days ................................................

Figure 3.24 Projected drought stress .......................................................

Figure 3.25 Survival of grey heron and common buzzard .............................

Map 3.11 Changes of the mean annual river discharges over thetwentieth century ..................................................................

Map 3.12 Change in annual average river discharge for European riverbasins in the 2070s compared with 2000 ..................................

Map 3.13 Wheat yield in 2003 (change from 2002) ..................................

Figure 3.26 Weather and climate related disasters in Europe .......................

Figure 3.27 Economic and insured losses caused by weather and climaterelated disasters in Europe .....................................................

Figure 3.28 Number of reported deaths and minimum and maximumtemperature in Paris during the heatwave in summer 2003 ........

Figure 3.29 Number of flood events (left); number of deaths per floodevent (right) ........................................................................

Map 3.14 Tick prevalence (white dots) in central and northern Sweden ......

Figure 4.1 Decision making framework for climate adaptation strategies .....

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1Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by theEuropean Environment Agency'sEuropean Topic Centre for Air andClimate Change (ETC/ACC). UBABerlin (Umweltbundesamt, FederalEnvironmental Agency) and RIVM(National Institute of Public Healthand the Environment, the Netherlands)also contributed financially as partnersin ETC/ACC. Thomas Voigt of UBABerlin and Jelle van Minnen of RIVM

coordinated the overall development ofthe report and were authors of severalparts.

Other main authors were MarkusErhard (Atmospheric EnvironmentalResearch (MK-IFU), ForschungszentrumKarlsruhe), Marc Zebisch from thePotsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK), David Viner (ClimaticResearch Unit CRU) and RobertKoelemeer (RIVM). The authors

appreciated the advice and comments ofRob Swart of RIVM and of Wolf Garberof UBA Berlin throughout the process.

The EEA project manager was Andr Jol.

The authors gratefully acknowledge thesupport of those who contributed text,data, figures and comments:

Joseph Alcamo (University of Kassel,

Germany), Michel Bakkenes (RIVM,Bilthoven, the Netherlands), AndrBerger (EEA Scientific Commiee,University of Louvain, Belgium),Gerhard Berz (Munich Re, Munich,Germany), Keith Brander (ICES,Copenhagen, Denmark), LudwigBraun (Bavarian Academy of Sciences,Munich, Germany), Jerry Brown (IPA,Woods Hole (MA), USA.), MelvinCannell (CEH, Penicuik, UK), TimCarter (Finish Environmental Institute,Helsinki, Finland), Philippe Ciais (LSCE,Paris, France), Sophie Cond (ETC onNature Protection and Biodiversity,Paris, France), Wolfgang Cramer (PIK,

Potsdam, Germany), Harry Dooley(ICES, Copenhagen, Denmark), MartinEdwards (SAHFOS, Plymouth, UK),Rune Engeset (NVE, Oslo, Norway),Heidi Escher-Veer (Bavarian Academyof Sciences, Munich, Germany), PaulFhn (SLF, Davos, Switzerland), RegulaFrauenfelder (WGMS at the Universityof Zrich, Switzerland), Erik Framstad(NINA, Oslo, Norway), AnneeFreibauer (MPI-BGC, Jena, Germany),

Karl Gabl (ZAMG, Innsbruck, Austria),Thilo Gnther (DWD, Berlin, Germany),Christian Haas (AWI, Bremerhaven,Germany), Wilfried Hberli (WGMS atthe University of Zrich, Switzerland),Clair Hanson (CRU, Norwich, UK),Mike Hulme(Tyndall-Centre, UEA,Norwich, UK), Martin Hoelzle(WGMS at the University of Zurich,Switzerland), Hans-Jrgen Jger(University of Giessen, Germany), Ivan

Janssens (University of Antwerpen,

Belgium), Gerd Jendritzki (DWD,Freiburg, Germany), Phil Jones (CRU,UEA, Norwich, UK), Frank Kaspar(MPI Hamburg, Germany), Sari Kovats(LSHTM, London, UK), Michael Kuhn(University of Innsbruck, Austria),Bernhard Lehner (University of Kassel,Germany), Gnter Liebsch (TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, Germany), PeterLoewe (BSH, Hamburg, Germany),Grgoire Lois (ETC on Nature Protection

and Biodiversity, Paris, France),Christoph Maier (GEUS, Copenhagen,Denmark), Beina Menne (WHO-ECEH,Rome, Italy), Annee Menzel (TechnicalUniversity of Munich, Germany), RangaMyneni (Boston University, Boston(MA), U.S.A), Kristin Novotny (TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, Germany), Gert-

Jan van Oldenborgh (KNMI, de Bilt,the Netherlands), Tim Osborn (CRU,Norwich, UK), Harald Pauli (Universityof Vienna, Austria), Zbigniew Pruszak(Institute of Hydro-Engineering,Gdansk, Poland), Lars-Oo Reiersen(AMAP, Oslo, Norway), NataljaSchmelzer (BSH, Rostock, Germany),

Acknowledgements


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Impacts of Europe's changing climate2

Klaus Schwarzer (University of Kiel,Germany), Rune Solberg (Euroclim,Oslo, Norway), Johan Ludvig Sollid(University of Oslo, Norway), OStabbetorp (NINA, Oslo, Norway),

Wil Tamis (CML, University of Leiden,the Netherlands), Arnold van Vliet(EPN and Wageningen University,Wageningen, the Netherlands),

Janet Wngaard (KMNI, de Bilt, the

Netherlands), Sunhild Wilhelms (BSH,Hamburg, Germany), Angelika Wirtz(Munich Re, Munich, Germany).

Finally, EEA acknowledges all who

commented on the dra report, in EEA,European Topic Centres, National FocalPoints and the European Commission(Directorate General for Environment,Climate change unit).


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3Summary

Summary

Overview

Earth's history has been characterised bymany changes in climate conditions. Butthe extent and the rate of current climatechange most likely exceeds all naturalvariation in the last thousand years andpossibly further back in history. Thereis strong evidence that most of theobserved recent warming is aributableto human activities, in particular to

emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)from burning fossil fuels and land-usechanges. Due to ongoing emissionsof GHGs, the observed rise in globaltemperature is expected to continue andincrease during the twenty-first century.Climate change already has considerableimpacts on the environment, humanhealth and society which are expected to

become more severe in future.

As a response to climate change, the

United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) has

been established. It aims to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and mitigatethe effects. Also established are theKyoto Protocol emission targets for20082012. In addition, EU and nationalindicative policy targets have been setfor future substantial reductions of GHGemissions and for a tolerable projectedrise in temperature. To reach such

targets, further strategies and policiesare needed to achieve more sustainabledevelopment in relevant sectors ofsociety (energy, transport, industry,households, agriculture). In addition,strategies will increasingly be requiredfor adapting to the impacts of climatechange.

This report presents past trends inEurope's climate, its current state andpossible future changes as well asthe impacts of climate change on theEuropean environment and society. Thereport is aimed at the general interestedpublic and decision-makers, especially

those who wish to understand whichnatural systems and societal sectors aremost vulnerable to climate change andits impacts.

The main part of the report describestrends in and projections for 22 climatechange state and impact indicators. Theindicators cover eight categories: theatmosphere; the cryosphere (snow, iceand glaciers); the marine environment;

terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity;water; agriculture; the economy; andhuman health. The key findings for the22 indicators are summarised in TableS.1. For almost all indicators, a cleartrend exists and impacts are already

being observed.

The assessment of climate change andits impacts is still subject to uncertaintiesand information gaps. The 22 indicatorspresented in this report illustrate

only a small range of the potentialconsequences of climate change. Otherareas are also sensitive to climatechange, for instance forestry, wateravailability, or tourism. Some indicatorsfor these areas have already beendeveloped but have not been includedin this report, due to insufficient dataavailability for Europe or uncertaintyin identifying climate change as thecause of changes in these indicators.

For some of these areas, information isalready available and indicators can bepresented in the near future. For others,

beer knowledge and understandingis needed about the exposure andsensitivity of these systems with respectto climate change.

There is new and stronger evidence thatmost of the warming observed over thelast 50 years is aributable to humanactivities. Even if society substantiallyreduces its emissions of greenhousegases over the coming decades, theclimate system would continue tochange over the coming centuries.


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In order to prevent severe damage to theenvironment and society, and to ensuresustainable development even underchanging climate conditions, adaptationstrategies are required. Methods to

design and implement adaptationstrategies are presented in Chapter 4.

Key findings

1. Atmosphere and climate

Atmospheric indicators show that theconcentration of carbon dioxide (CO

2)

in the lower atmosphere has increasedfrom its pre-industrial concentration

of 280 ppm (parts per million) to its2003 concentration of 375 ppm. Thisis the highest level in the last 500 000years. At the same time, the climatein most parts of the world, includingEurope, is warming. The global averagetemperature has increased by about0.7 C and the European averagetemperature by 0.95 C in the lasthundred years. It is estimated thattemperatures will further increase by1.45.8 C globally and 2.06.3 C in

Europe by the year 2100. Precipitationpaerns show a more varied picture.Recently, central and northern Europehave received more rain than in the past.In contrast, southern and southeasternEurope have become drier. Thesechanges are projected to continue in thefuture. In addition, extreme weatherevents, such as droughts, heatwavesand floods, have increased while coldextremes (frost days) have decreased.

2. Glaciers, snow and ice

One of the most identifiable visualimpacts of climate change in Europe can

be observed in the cryosphere throughthe retreat of glaciers, snow cover andArctic sea ice. Eight out of nine glaciatedregions show a significant retreat; theonly advancing glaciers are in Norway.From 1850 to 1980, glaciers in theEuropean Alps lost approximately onethird of their area and one half of theirmass, a trend that is continuing. Eventhe advances of Norwegian glacierscan be aributed to climate change by

increasing winter snowfall. The extentand duration of snow cover acrossEurope has decreased since 1960. In theArctic regions of Europe, sea ice has

been in decline.

3. Marine systems

The impacts of climate change on themarine environment are covered inthis report by assessing the rise in sealevel, the sea surface temperature andchanges in the marine growing seasonand species composition. All of theseindicators show clear trends. The marinesystem is mainly affected by an increase

in sea surface temperature, especiallyin isolated basins like the Baltic Sea andthe North Sea. This has resulted in anincrease in phytoplankton biomass, anorthward movement of indigenouszooplankton species by up to 1 000km within the past few decades, andan increasing presence and number ofwarm-temperate species in the NorthSea. It is estimated that the current risein sea level of 0.83.0 mm/year willcontinue and intensify by 2.2 to 4.4 times

the present values.

4. Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Terrestrial ecosystems are mainlyaffected with regard to plant phenologyand distribution of plant and animalspecies. Climate change increasedthe length of the growing season

by 10 days between 1962 and 1995.Northward movement of plant species

(induced by a warmer climate) hasprobably increased species diversity innorthwestern Europe, but biodiversityhas declined in various other partsof Europe. The survival of different

bird species wintering in Europe hasincreased over the past few decadesand is likely to increase further

because of the projected rise in wintertemperature. The terrestrial carbonuptake of the vegetation has had apositive balance in Europe during thelast 20 years. This has led to a removalof some of the atmospheric CO

2

concentration and thus partly mitigatedclimate change. However, this carbon


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5Summary

sequestration will most likely bereduced in future.

5. Water

Annual river discharge is an indicatorfor both fresh water availabilityin a river basin and low and highflow events. Annual river dischargehas changed over the last decadesacross Europe. In some regions it hasincreased, in others, decreased. Apart of these changes is aributableto observed changes in precipitation.Annual discharge is expected to declinestrongly in southern and southeastern

Europe, but increase in northern andnortheastern Europe. Therefore, wateravailability will change over Europe inthe coming decades.

6. Agriculture

Climate change affects agriculture inmany ways. Increasing atmosphericCO

2and rising temperatures may

allow earlier sowing dates, enhancecrop growth and increase potential

crop yield. On the other hand, risingtemperatures increase the crops'water demand. In combination withchanging precipitation paerns, risingtemperatures are expected to lead toincreasing crop yields in areas withsufficient water supply, to decreasingyields in areas with hot and dryconditions, and to a northward shi ofagriculture.

7. Economy

Extreme weather events cause damageto industry, infrastructure and private

households. In Europe, a large numberof all catastrophic events since 1980are aributable to weather and climateextremes: floods, storms and droughts/heatwaves. Economic losses resulting

from weather and climate related eventshave increased significantly duringthe past 20 years. This is due to wealthincrease and more frequent events.Climate change projections show anincreasing likelihood of extreme weatherevents. Thus, a further increase indamage is very likely.

8. Human health

The impact of climate change on humanhealth is evaluated with respect toheatwave-related health problems,tick-borne diseases and flooding. Anincrease in these impacts has beenobserved in recent decades and theyare projected to escalate further due toprojected rises in temperature.

Adaptation

Even if society substantially reduces

its emissions of greenhouse gases overthe coming decades, the climate systemis projected to continue to changeover the coming centuries. Therefore,society has to prepare for and adapt tothe consequences of some inevitableclimate change, in addition to mitigationmeasures. To prevent or limit severedamage to the environment, societyand economies, adaptation strategiesfor affected systems are required at

European, national, regional and locallevel. The report provides a generalframework for adaptation strategies anda number of examples.


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Table S.1 Summary of trends and projections of indicators included in this report

Indicators Key messages

Atmosphere and climate

Greenhouse gas

concentrations

Due to human activities, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2),

the main greenhouse gas, has increased by 34 % compared with pre-industrial levels, with an accelerated rise since 1950. Other greenhouse gasconcentrations have also risen as a result of human activities.

The total rise in all greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era amountsto 170 ppm CO

2-equivalent, with contributions of 61 % from CO

2, 19 %

from methane, 13 % from CFCs and HCFCs, and 6 % from nitrous oxide.

If no climate-driven policy measures are implemented, a further increase to6501 215 ppm CO

2-equivalent is projected to occur by 2100.

To achieve the EU long-term objective of limiting global temperaturerise to 2 C, global emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reducedsubstantially from 1990 levels.

Global andEuropean airtemperature

The global average temperature has increased by 0.7 0.2 C over thepast 100 years. The 1990s were the warmest decade in the observationalrecord; 1998 was the warmest year, followed by 2002 and 2003.

Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 C increasesince 1900. Temperatures in winter have increased more than in summer.The warming has been greatest in northwest Russia and the IberianPeninsula.

The rate of global warming has increased to 0.17 0.05 C per decade, avalue probably exceeding any 100-year rate of warming during the past1 000 years. The indicative target of no more than 0.10.2 C per decadehas already been exceeded or will be exceeded within the next fewdecades.

From 1990 to 2100, the global average temperature is projected toincrease by 1.45.8 C and 2.06.3 C for Europe (without policymeasures). The 'sustainable' EU target of limiting global temperatureincrease to no more than 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels is likely to beexceeded around 2050.

European

precipitation

Annual precipitation trends in Europe for the period 19002000 showa contrasting picture between northern Europe (1040 % wetter) andsouthern Europe (up to 20 % drier). Changes have been greatest in winterin most parts of Europe.

Projections for Europe show a 12 % increase per decade in annualprecipitation in northern Europe and an up to 1 % per decade decrease insouthern Europe (in summer, decreases of 5 % per decade may occur). Thereduction in southern Europe is expected to have severe effects, e.g. morefrequent droughts, with considerable impacts on agriculture and waterresources.

Temperatureand precipitationextremes

In the past 100 years the number of cold and frost days has decreasedin most parts of Europe, whereas the number of days with temperaturesabove 25 C (summer days) and of heatwaves has increased.

The frequency of very wet days significantly decreased in recent decades inmany places in southern Europe, but increased in mid and northern Europe.

Cold winters are projected to disappear almost entirely by 2080 and hotsummers are projected to become much more frequent.

It is likely that, by 2080, droughts as well as intense precipitation eventswill become more frequent.

Glaciers, snow and ice

Glaciers Glaciers in eight out of the nine glacier European regions are in retreat,which is consistent with the global trend.

From 1850 to 1980, glaciers in the European Alps lost approximately onethird of their area and one half of their mass. Since 1980, another 2030 %of the remaining ice has been lost. The hot dry summer of 2003 led to aloss of 10 % of the remaining glacier mass in the Alps.

Current glacier retreat in the Alps is reaching levels exceeding those of thepast 5 000 years.

It is very likely that the glacier retreat will continue. By 2050, about 75 %of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps are likely to have disappeared.


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7Summary

Snow cover The northern hemisphere's annual snow cover extent has decreased byabout 10 % since 1966.

The snow cover period in the northern hemisphere land areas between45 N and 75 N shortened by an average rate of 8.8 days per decade

between 1971 and 1994.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent is projected to decrease furtherduring the twenty-first century.

Arctic sea ice The total area of Arctic sea ice has shrunk by more than 7 % from 1978 to2003.

Ice thickness decreased by about 40 % on average from the period19581976 to the period 19931997, with large regional variability.

The duration of the summer melt season over a large proportion of theperennial Arctic sea ice increased by 5.3 days (8 %) per decade from 1979to 1996.

Projections show a predominantly ice free Arctic Ocean in summer by 2100.

Marine systems

Rise in sea level Sea levels around Europe increased by between 0.8 mm/year (Brest andNewlyn) and 3.0 mm/year (Narvik) in the past century.

The projected rate of sea level rise between 1990 and 2100 is 2.2 to4.4 times higher than the rate in the twentieth century, and sea level isprojected to continue to rise for centuries.

Sea surfacetemperature

Since the late nineteenth century, the global average sea surfacetemperature has increased by 0.6 0.1 C, consistent with the increase inglobal air temperature.

Global ocean heat content has increased significantly since the late 1950s.More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper300 metres of the ocean.

No European sea shows a significant cooling; the Baltic and North Seas andthe western Mediterranean show a slight warming of about 0.5 C over thepast 15 years.

It is very likely that the oceans will warm less than the land; by 2100,global sea surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.14.6 C from1990 levels.

Marine growingseason

Increasing phytoplankton biomass and an extension of the seasonal growthperiod have been observed in the North Sea and the North Atlantic over thepast decades.

In the 1990s, the seasonal development of decapods larvae (zooplankton)occurred much earlier (by 45 weeks), compared with the long-term mean.

Marine speciescomposition

Over the past 30 years there has been a northward shift of zooplanktonspecies by up to 1 000 km and a major reorganisation of planktonecosystems.

The presence and number of warm-temperate species have been increasingin the North Sea over the past decades.

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversityPlant speciescomposition

Climate change over the past three decades has resulted in decreases inpopulations of plant species in southern and northern Europe.

Plant species diversity has increased in northwestern Europe due to anorthward movement of southern thermophilic species, whereas the effecton cold tolerant species is still limited.

Projections predict a further northward movement of many plant species.By 2050 species distribution is projected to become substantially affectedin many parts of Europe.

Globally a large number of species might become extinct under futureclimate change. Due to non-climate related factors, such as thefragmentation of habitats, extinction rates are likely to increase. Thesefactors will limit the migration and adaptation capabilities needed byspecies to respond to climate change.

Table S.1 Summary of trends and projections of indicators included in this report (cont.)


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Plant speciesdistribution inmountain regions

Endemic mountain plant species are threatened by the upward migrationof more competitive sub-alpine shrubs and tree species, to some extentbecause of climate change.

In the Alps, upward migration has led to an increase in plant speciesrichness in 21 out of 30 summits, whereas it has decreased or remained

stable in the other summits.

Projected changes in European annual average temperature are outsidethe tolerance range of many mountain species. These species are projectedto be replaced by more competitive shrub and tree species, leading toconsiderable loss of endemic species in mountain regions.

Terrestrial carbonuptake

In the period 19901998 the European terrestrial biosphere was a netsink for carbon and therefore partly offset increasing anthropogenic CO

2

emissions.

Carbon uptake in Europe can be increased by (re-)planting forests andother land management measures. The additional potential storagecapacity for the EU in forestry and agriculture is estimated to be relativelysmall, compared with the agreed targets in the Kyoto Protocol.

The projected increase in average temperature is likely to reduce thepotential amount of carbon that can be sequestrated in the European

terrestrial biosphere in the future.

Plant phenologyand growingseason

The average annual growing season in Europe lengthened by about 10 daysbetween 1962 and 1995, and is projected to increse further in the future.

Greenness (a measure of plant productivity) of vegetation increased by12 %, an indicator of enhanced plant growth.

The positive effects of temperature increase on vegetation growth (i.e. alonger growing season) are projected to be counteracted by an increasedrisk of water shortage in mid and especially southern Europe which wouldadversely affect vegetation.

Bird survival The survival rate of different bird species wintering in Europe has increasedover the past few decades.

The survival rate of most bird species is likely to improve further because ofthe projected rise in winter temperature.

Nevertheless, it is not yet possible to determine what impact this increasingsurvival will have on bird populations.

Water

Annual riverdischarge

Annual river discharge has changed over the past few decades acrossEurope. In some regions, including eastern Europe, it has increased, whileit has decreased in others, including southern Europe. Some of thesechanges can be attributed to observed changes in precipitation.

The combined effect of projected changes in precipitation and temperaturewill in most cases amplify the changes in annual river discharge.

Annual discharge is projected to decline strongly in southern andsoutheastern Europe, but to increase in almost all parts of northern andnortheastern Europe, with consequences for water availability.

Agriculture

Crop yield The yields per hectare of all cash crops have continuously increased inEurope in the past 40 years due to technological progress, while climatechange has had a minor influence.

Agriculture in most parts of Europe, particularly in mid and northernEurope, is expected to potentially benefit from increasing CO

2

concentrations and rising temperatures.

The cultivated area could be expanded northwards.

In some parts of southern Europe, agriculture will be threatened by climatechange due to increased water stress.

During the heatwave in 2003, many southern European countries suffereddrops in yield of up to 30 %, while some northern European countriesprofited from higher temperatures and lower rainfall.

Bad harvests could become more common due to an increase in the

frequency of extreme weather events (droughts, floods, storms, hail) andpests and diseases.



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9Summary

Economy

Economic losses In Europe, 64 % of all catastrophic events since 1980 are directlyattributable to weather and climate extremes: floods, storms and droughts/heatwaves. 79 % of economic losses caused by catastrophic events result

from these weather and climate related events.

Economic losses resulting from weather and climate related events haveincreased significantly during the past 20 years, from an annual averageof less than USD 5 billion to about USD 11 billion. This is due to wealthincrease and more frequent events. Four out of the five years with thelargest economic losses in this period have occurred since 1997.

The average number of annual disastrous weather and climate relatedevents in Europe doubled over the 1990s compared with the previousdecade, while non-climatic events such as earthquakes remained stable.

Climate change projections show an increasing likelihood of extremeweather events. Thus, an escalation in damage caused is likely.

Human health

Heatwaves More than 20 000 excess deaths attributable to heat, particularly amongthe aged population, occurred in western and southern Europe during thesummer of 2003.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and more intenseduring the twenty-first century and hence the number of excess deaths dueto heat is projected to increase in the future. On the other hand, fewer coldspells will likely reduce the number of excess deaths in winter.

Flooding Between 1975 and 2001, 238 flood events were recorded in Europe. Overthis period the annual number of flood events clearly increased.

The number of people affected by floods rose significantly, with adversephysical and psychological human health consequences.

Fatal casualties caused per flood event decreased significantly, likely due toimproved warning and rescue measures.

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme flood eventsin Europe, in particular the frequency of flash floods, which have the

highest risk of fatality.

Tick-bornediseases

Tick-borne encephalitis cases increased in the Baltic region and centralEurope between 1980 and 1995, and have remained high. Ticks cantransmit a variety of diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) andLyme disease (in Europe called Lyme borreliosis).

It is not clear how many of the 85 000 cases of Lyme borreliosis reportedannually in Europe are due to the temperature increase over the pastdecades.



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1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose and scope of thisreport

During recent decades, there havebeen notable changes in the globaland European climate. Temperaturesare rising, precipitation in many partsof Europe is changing and weatherextremes show an increasing frequencyin some regions (IPCC, 2001a).According to the UN Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 'thereis new and stronger evidence that mostof the warming observed over thelast 50 years is aributable to humanactivities, in particular to the emission ofgreenhouse gases' (IPCC, 2001a).

Human induced climate changeis expected to continue in thecoming decades (IPCC, 2001a), withconsiderable effects on human societyand the environment. The magnitude

of the impacts strongly depends on thenature and rate of future temperatureincrease. Consequences of climatechange include an increased riskof floods and droughts, losses of

biodiversity, threats to human health,and damage to economic sectors suchas forestry, agriculture, tourism and theinsurance industry (IPCC, 2001b). Insome sectors, new opportunities mightoccur, depending on the location in

Europe. Some of the impacts are alreadybeginning to appear.

This report presents the results of anindicator-based assessment of recentand projected climate changes and theirimpacts in Europe. The European TopicCentre on Air and Climate Change(ETC/ACC) prepared the report for theEuropean Environment Agency (EEA).The objectives of the report are to:

present the extent to which climatechange and its impacts are alreadyoccurring and projected to occur infuture;

enable the assessment of thevulnerability of natural and societalsectors to climate change, and toenable the development of adaptationstrategies;

show the distance to achieving (long-term) climate change targets, inparticular the EU indicative target forglobal temperature;

raise awareness of how mitigationpolicies to reduce greenhouse gasemissions can delay or avoid potentialadverse impacts of climate change inEurope.

This report focuses mainly on European-wide trends, but adds information onglobal trends where relevant. Detailedinformation on regional impacts ofclimate change is provided in nationalclimate change indicator reports, such

as for the UK (Cannell, 2003; Hulme etal., 2002) and for Ireland (Sweeney et al.,2002).

This report is relevant for the generalinterested public, and for policy- anddecision-makers, especially those whowish to understand which impacts ofclimate change are already noticeable,how these impacts will continue infuture, and which natural systems and

societal sectors are most vulnerable toclimate change. The report builds on anumber of more detailed indicator factsheets, some of which are or will bepublished separately on the EEA website.

1.2 Outline

Chapter 2 of this report sets out thebackground, which helps to understandthe need for an assessment of climatechange and its impacts. Past and futureclimate change and the causes of climatechange are described. It is shown that


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11Introduction

climate changes in the past thousands tomillions of years were driven by naturalforces, whereas the accelerated climatechange in the last hundred years is toa large extent aributable to human

activities.

The section on climate change policyand sustainable development discussesthe policy relevance of climate changeand its impacts. The current policyframework of the UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol isexplained and indicative policy targetsare presented. Further policy strategies

are summarised which are aimed atreducing emissions of greenhouse gasesor enhancing 'carbon sinks', as wellas at adapting to the consequences ofclimate change. Finally, links to otherrelated environmental policy issues andframeworks (biodiversity, water andhuman health) are shown.

The main part of the report is Chapter 3.The state of climate change and itsimpacts in Europe are described by

means of 22 indicators, divided intoeight different categories:



Marine systems

Terrestrial ecosystems andbiodiversity

Water

Agriculture

Economy

Human health.

The indicators present selected andmeasurable examples of climatechange and its impacts, which alreadyshow clear trends in response toclimate change. The responses of theindicators can be understood as beingrepresentative of the more complexresponses of the whole category.Furthermore, the results can give anindication of where, to what extent and

in which sectors Europe is vulnerable toclimate change, now and in the future.

Each indicator is presented in a separatesub-chapter containing a summary ofthe key messages, an explanation ofthe relevance of this indicator for theenvironment, society and policy, and adescription of past, recent and futuretrends.

Chapter 4 stresses the need for

adaptation strategies and reviews howthese may be set up and how they couldhelp to prevent severe damage from theconsequences of climate change.

Finally, Chapter 5 evaluates thedifficulties and challenges of aemptingassessments of climate change. Itexplains causes of uncertainties anddiscusses data availability and quality. Italso proposes potential indicators which

could broaden future climate impactassessments.


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2.1 Past and future climatechange

Human life cannot exist withoutthe Earth's climate creating suitableenvironmental conditions for sufficientfood, fresh water supply and otheressential ecosystem services. Furtherscientific evidence is becomingavailable showing that the climate onEarth has changed in recent decades

more rapidly than the changes to whichhuman civilisation has adapted in thepast. The following section summarisescurrent scientific knowledge aboutthe causes of past and recent climatechange.

2.1.1 Natural changes in the climate

Earth's history has shown manychanges in climate conditions. Someof these are singular events, resulting

in large changes in climate conditionswithin years or decades. Others showa regular behaviour following differentcycles. Most of these other changesoccurred over periods of hundreds,thousands or millions of years. Theywere driven by natural phenomenasuch as variations in the Earth's orbitaround the sun, variations in the Earthaxis, fluctuations in the sun's activityand volcanic eruptions. In the past

400 000 years, the climate has showna periodic cycle of ice ages and warmperiods (Figure 2.1). Compared withthese variations, the climate of the last8 000 years has been relativelystable with very small temperaturefluctuations (less than 1 C percentury). This stability offeredfavourable conditions for thedevelopment of human society in thisperiod (Petit et al., 1999).

2.1.2 Human induced climate change

Since the beginning of the twentiethcentury, the Earth's climate has warmed

2 Background

rapidly by about 0.7 C, with anincrease of 0.95 C in Europe (ClimaticResearch Unit CRU, 2003). Thesechanges are unusual in terms of bothmagnitude and rate of temperaturechange. The warming exceeds by farall natural climate variations of thelast 1 000 years (IPCC, 2001a) (Figure2.2). The 1990s in particular were thewarmest decade in this period (IPCC,2001a) and the temperature is expected

to increase further in the future (seeSection 3.2).

Natural causes can explain only a smallpart of this global warming. There isnew and stronger evidence that most ofthe warming is aributable to humanactivities, in particular to the emissionof greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001a).

Greenhouse gases have the abilityto intercept and re-emit heat which

is emied from the Earth's surface,and thus lead to increases in globaltemperature. Greenhouse gasesare very important for the globalclimate system. Without natural (pre-industrial) greenhouse gases, globalaverage temperature would be 34 Clower than it is now, too cold to supporthuman life.

On the other hand, a significant

increase in greenhouse gases will leadto a rise in temperature. This may affectnatural and societal systems to a degreethat could be hard for human society toadapt to.

The main greenhouse gas aributableto human activities is carbon dioxide(CO

2) derived from burning fuels

(coal, oil, gas). Other importantanthropogenic greenhouse gasesinclude methane (CH

4

) fromagriculture, nitrous oxide (N2O) fromagriculture and industry, industrialhalogenated gases (CFCs and HCFCs)and ozone, which is formed from


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13Background

compounds emied by humanactivities (industry, road transport,households, energy industries).

Anthropogenic emissions haveincreased the atmospheric

concentration of CO2 from 280 ppm(pre-industrial levels, before about1750) to 375 ppm at present, whichexceeds the highest concentration inthe last 400 000 years by 70 ppm(Figure 2.1).

2.1.3 Future climate change

The extent of future climate changecannot be known with certainty, sincethe scientific knowledge of variousclimate processes is incompleteand socio-economic development,which determines the magnitude ofgreenhouse gas emissions, is uncertain.

However, there is increasing scientificconfidence in the ability of climatemodels to project the future climate,using projections of greenhouse gasemissions as input. According to thesemodels, the global average surface

warming by 2100 will be between 1.4and 5.8 C above 1990 levels (Figure2.2), using a broad range of scenarios ofpossible socio-economic developmentsand related greenhouse gas emissions(IPCC, 2001a, see also Section 3.2).

Besides these more or less linearprojected trends of future climate, thereare additional risks of non-linear orso-called singular events which could

be induced by further global warming.The probability that such an event willhappen within the next hundred yearsis relatively low but, if it does occur,the impacts will be extremely high and

150

200

250

300

350

400

0100 000200 000300 000400 000

Years before present

CO

2concen

tra

tion,

ppm CO2 increase from

pre-industrial level

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0100 000200 000300 000400 000

Years before present

Departures

intempera

tures(

C)

from

the

1961to1990average

Stable period duringthe last 8 000 years

Figure 2.1 Reconstructed record of the global average temperature and atmospheric CO2

concentration over the last 400 000 years

Source: Petit et al., 1999.


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adaptation would be very difficult.Examples of such potential futuresingular events are:

a shutdown of the thermohalinecirculation in the North Atlantic (theso called 'North Atlantic Current', alsoincorrectly referred to as 'Gulf Stream').

This may lead to considerable coolingin northern and western Europe.

emissions of large amounts of methanefrom natural gas hydrates in the ocean,deep lakes and polar sediments whichcould accelerate global warming.

the disintegration of the West AntarcticIce Sheet or the melting of theGreenland ice, which could lead to arise in sea level by several metres.

Due to the very low probability ofsuch events and uncertain scientificknowledge, singular events have not

been considered in this report. Thisissue may be considered in futurereports aer more information becomesavailable (see IPCC, 2001a and WGBU(German Advisory Council on GlobalChange), 2003a).

2.2 Climate change policy andsustainable development

The continuing and acceleratingrate of global climate change and itspotentially severe impacts on natureand human society call for policyresponses. These responses shouldmitigate climate change and its impactsas far as possible and help adaptationto the partly inevitable consequences.This section presents climate changepolicy frameworks and shows links toother policy issues. Some of the policytargets quoted in this chapter arecompared to the corresponding

Figure 2.2 Reconstructed and measured temperature over the last 1 000 years (northern

hemisphere) and projected temperature rise in the next 100 years

Source: Mann et al., 1999 (last 1 000 years); IPCC, 2001a (projection for the next 100 years).

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 000 1 100 1 200 1 300 1 400 1 500 1 600 1 700 1 800 1 900 2 000 2 100

Departures

intempe

ratures

(C)from

the

1961to1990average

Reconstructed temperature.Data f rom tree rings, corals andice cores (blue), smoothed data(black) and error range (grey).

Projected global mean temperature,20002100, calculated according todifferent IPCC scenarios (dotted lines)and total range of results (grey).

Recorded data fromthermometers (red).


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15Background

climate state and impact indicatorsin Chapter 3.

2.2.1 Current policy framework

The United Nations opened theFramework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) for signature in1992 and the convention came intoforce in 1994. The ultimate objective ofthe UNFCCC is 'to achieve stabilisationof greenhouse gas concentrations inthe atmosphere at a level that wouldprevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system.Such a level should be achieved

within a time-frame sufficient toallow ecosystems to adapt naturallyto climate change, to ensure thatfood production is not threatenedand to enable economic developmentto proceed in a sustainable manner'(UNFCCC, 1993). By the end of thetwentieth century, over 175 states hadratified the convention, indicating thatmany countries, both industrialisedand developing, were convinced thatclimate change is a serious threat. The

EU identified climate change as one ofthe key environmental concerns in thecontext of sustainable development(European Parliament and Council,2002).

To limit climate change and its impacts,it was agreed in 1997 to supplementthe Framework Convention with theso-called Kyoto Protocol, which setsquantitative limits for emissions of six

greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O andthree groups of fluorinated gases) bydeveloped countries. The target forindustrial countries as a whole is a 5 %emission reduction by the 20082012commitment period, compared with the

base year (1990 for most countries andfor the most important Kyoto gases,except the fluorinated gases). The EU,which at that time had 15 MemberStates, commied itself under theprotocol to reduce its emissions by 8 %.Within this overall target, differentiatedemission limitation or reduction targetshave been agreed for each MemberState under an EU accord known as the

'burden-sharing' agreement. However,the 10 Member States which joinedthe EU in 2004 keep their individuallyagreed reduction targets under theKyoto Protocol, ranging from 6 to 8 %

from the base year levels. Countriesare allowed to use so-called Kyotoor flexible mechanisms to fulfil theircommitments, including project-

based joint implementation betweendeveloped countries, and cleandevelopment mechanisms betweendeveloped and developing countries.To some extent also, carbon sinks(ecosystems which can sequestratecarbon, see Section 3.5.3) can count

towards the fulfilment of reductioncommitments. So far, 120 countrieshave ratified the Protocol and manyof these have adopted nationalprogrammes for reducing greenhousegas emissions. However, Kyoto hasnot entered into force yet since theemissions of industrialised countrieswhich have ratified the protocol do notreach the threshold of representing55 % of the base year emissions. IfRussia were to ratify, that threshold

would be reached. Some industrialisedcountries, including the US andAustralia, have made clear that theywill not ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

2.2.2 Long-term policies andsustainable development

The Kyoto Protocol is only a firststep towards avoiding 'dangerousanthropogenic interference with the

climate system'. Although the Protocolhas not yet entered into force, theEU and a number of countries havealready expressed their intention to seesubstantial GHG emission reductions inthe longer term. The EU has defined anindicative long-term global temperaturetarget of not more than 2 C above pre-industrial levels, in addition to a long-term CO

2stabilisation level of 550 ppm

(sixth environment action programme).The German Advisory Council onGlobal Change has recently proposedthe same global temperature target anda CO

2concentration target of 450 ppm,

based on an extensive evaluation of


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limits to climate change for ecosystems,food production, water availability,economic development and humanhealth (WGBU, 2003a). The UnitedKingdom (DTI, 2003a, b) adopted a

60 % and Germany aims at a 40 %reduction target of their nationalemissions (from 1990 levels) by 2050and 2020, respectively. Likewise, theNetherlands has suggested a 4060 %emission reduction for western Europeas an indicative target. A recent study(WGBU, 2003b) has proposed reducingglobal CO

2emissions from fossil fuels

by 4560 % from 1990 levels by 2050.These targets could be the basis for the

global post-Kyoto negotiations, startingin 2005.

To achieve large global reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions, both theglobal share of renewable energy needsto be increased and energy efficiencysubstantially improved. Technologicaldevelopments as well as increasedresearch, market penetration strategiesand provision of price incentives arenecessary. These measures have to be

accomplished by a transfer of capitaland technology to developing countries.A transformation of global energysystems is essential to provide accessto sustainable energy for people indeveloping countries, which is a UNmillennium development goal.

In addition to mitigation strategies,such as emission reduction measures,adaptation to climate change is

increasingly receiving aention (seeChapter 4). Such measures are alreadybeing developed and implemented invarious countries. Within UNFCCC,several climate change funds have beenagreed (UNFCCC, 2003).

2.2.3 Climate change and otherenvironmental issues and policies

Since climate change has consequencesfor nearly all natural and societalsystems (see Chapter 3), the issue isconsidered in the context of other

major environmental issues and policymeasures such as:

Biodiversity, which is addressed in theConvention on Biological Diversity

(CBD, 2003). This stresses that humanactivities, including climate change,negatively affect biodiversity. TheEU has a goal of halting loss of

biodiversity by 2010, which will beinfluenced by climate change.

Human health, which can be affecteddirectly (temperature rise) orindirectly (floods) by climate change.Climate change related impacts on

human health are addressed by theWorld Health Organisation (e.g.WHO, 2003).

Stratospheric ozone depletion (the'ozone hole'), which can, throughatmospheric processes, have aneffect on climate change. Strategiesto mitigate ozone depletion areaddressed by the Montreal Protocol.

Water, whose future availability can

change due to climate change. Waterquality (e.g. nitrate levels) and waterquantity issues (risk of flooding) areaddressed in the EU water frameworkdirective, although climate change isnot considered explicitly.

Because of these links, there is anincreasing awareness of the need forpolicies which address these issuessimultaneously. Policies to reduce

deforestation, for example, could bebeneficial both for climate change(deforestation is one of the mainsources of CO

2) and biodiversity.

Another example is the use ofenvironmental taxes, which tackledifferent environmental problemssimultaneously (EEA, 2003a).Integration of environmental issues insectoral policies is included in the EUsustainable development strategy (2002).To achieve sustainable development,further integration and harmonisation ofpolicy measures are needed in future.


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17Climate change impacts in Europe

3.1 Introduction

The observed climate change over thelast century influences Europe in manyways. It affects natural systems, such asglaciers or ecosystems, as well as societaland economic systems, such as humanhealth and agriculture.

In many cases, climate change is anadditional stress factor. Biodiversity, for

example, is also affected by factors suchas land use changes, overexploitation ofnatural resources, invasive alien species,and air pollution. But the role of climatechange is expected to become moredominant, in particular if the magnitudeand rate of climate change is at thehigher end of the projected range(IPCC, 2001a, b; WGBU, 2003).

3.1.1 Indicators and vulnerability

Due to the complex interactions amongnatural and societal systems and theclimate system, the impact of climatechange cannot be described completely.Instead, changes in well-defined andmeasurable elements which alreadyshow a significant impact of climatechange can be used as indicators forchanges in the total system. The retreat ofglaciers, for instance, can be an indicatorfor the impact of climate change on snow

and ice-related systems. Indicators donot tell the whole story, but they can giveclear hints that a system is changing andin which direction or to what extent.

By these means, indicators can helpto assess the vulnerability of naturaland societal systems to climate change.Vulnerability describes the extent towhich a natural or social system issusceptible to sustained damage fromclimate change, considering the degreeof exposure to climate change, thesensitivity of a system and its adaptivecapacity (IPCC, 2001b). There is anincreasing awareness that Europe is

3 Climate change impacts inEurope

vulnerable to climate change, eventhough it is probably less vulnerable thandeveloping countries due to its economiccapacity to adapt to climate change.Furthermore, indicators can help to showhow distant policy targets are. Suchtargets currently only exist for the globalgreenhouse gas concentration and globalaverage temperature. But more targetsmay be defined in future related to thequestion of what constitutes 'dangerous

anthropogenic interference with theclimate' (see Section 2.2.1).

For an overview of tools and methods toevaluate the impacts of, and vulnerabilityand adaptation to, climate change, seeUNFCCC (2004).

3.1.2 Selection of indicators

For this report, 22 indicators wereselected to describe the state of the

climate and the impacts of climatechange on various natural and societalsystems. These indicators were dividedinto eight separate categories:



Marine systems

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Water

Agriculture

Economy

Human health.

These indicators have been selectedbecause of their measurability, theircausal link to climate change, their(policy) relevance, the availability ofhistorical time series, data availabilityover a large part of Europe (preferably


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they should cover all of Europe), andtheir transparency (i.e. they can be easilyunderstood by policy-makers and thegeneral interested audience).

Many other impact indicators (e.g.impact on forestry) were consideredfor inclusion in the report but wererejected, oen because of the difficultyof aributing an observed trend toclimate change or due to insufficient dataavailability (see also Chapter 5) (EEA,2002b). If more information becomesavailable in the future, some of theseindicators might be reconsidered forinclusion in a future report, to achieve a

more comprehensive picture of climatechange impacts on the environment andsociety.

Indicators from existing nationalindicator sets, such as for the UK(Cannell et al., 1999; Cannell, 2003;Hulme et al., 2002), have been integratedwhere feasible. Others have been rejected

because of missing data for the whole ofEurope or because the relevance of theseindicators is limited to national issues.

The indicators are part of the full set ofindicators that the EEA uses to presentthe relationships in the 'DPSIR' causalitychain (see EEA core set of indicators,EEA, 2003c). This includes the socio-economic driving forces (e.g. energysupply and use), pressures (emissionsof greenhouse gases), state of theenvironment (e.g. the climate), impactsand responses through policies (EEA,

2002a). Indicators on greenhouse gasemissions, removals by carbon sinks andthe effectiveness of policies and measuresare presented in other reports (EuropeanCommission, 2003; EEA, 2003a, b; IEA,2002) and in National and Europeancommunications to UNFCCC (UNFCCC,2003). They are therefore not addressedhere.

3.1.3 Data and information sources forthis report

This report uses recorded data andmodel results to assess past and futureclimate change and its impact.

While recorded data are a good sourcefor the description of past trends ofmeasurable factors (e.g. temperature),models are needed for the assessmentof complex entities which cannot be

measured directly (e.g. carbon uptake)and for the assessment of future trends.Models are mathematical formulationsof the knowledge about the mechanismof climate change and its impacts. Forthe model-based assessment of futuretrends, assumptions about possiblechanges of the drivers of climate change(e.g. CO

2emission) are necessary.

Such assumptions are called scenarios.Scenarios do not predict a trend but

show possible pathways of futuredevelopment. Scenarios are a commontool to answer questions of the 'whatif?' type e.g. 'what would happen to theclimate if CO2 concentrations rose to alevel of 650 ppm?'

Data sources used in this report includerecent reports on temperature andprecipitation (Hadley Centre, 2003) andon climate change and human health(WHO, 2003). In general, the sources

of global datasets have been UNFCCC,IPCC, WMO (World MeteorologicalOrganization), WHO (World HealthOrganization), WGMS (World GlacierMonitoring Service) and the ClimaticResearch Unit of the University ofEast Anglia (UK). EU research projectssuch as ACACIA A consortiumfor the application of climate impactassessments (Parry, 2000), CarboEurope(Freibauer, 2002), and the European

Phenology Network deliveredinformation on a European scale. Finally,national information about climatechange state and impacts indicators has

been used where available, e.g. for theUK (Cannell et al., 1999; Cannell, 2003;Hulme et al., 2002) and other countries.

Most of the projections in this reportare based on the six emission scenariospublished by the UN IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (the so-calledSpecial report on emission scenarios SRES; IPCC, 2000). These scenarioscontain plausible estimates of futurechanges in policies, technologies, land-


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use, lifestyles, population, economicgrowth and other issues. Theseassumptions in turn result in differentpaths of emissions of greenhouse gasesand other pollutants. Emission scenarios

are used to assess the consequencesof changing emissions for the climateand its impacts. Combining differentscenarios and models reduces theuncertainty and thus increases theconfidence in a projection.

All information on indicators presentedin this report is subject to varioustypes of uncertainties. These can resultfrom gaps in knowledge of climate

change processes, insufficient dataavailability, difficulties in aributing anobserved change to climate change anda wide range of possible future socio-economic developments and emissionsof greenhouse gases. Uncertainties are

briefly addressed in the description of

each indicator and explained in moredetail in Chapter 5.

3.1.4 Presentation of indicators

The presentation of each indicatorcomprises three sections:

key messages that summariseobserved and projected trends;

a relevance section that explainsthe policy, socio-economic andenvironmental relevance. It containsinformation about politically agreedor indicative targets, the possible

impacts of climate change, therelevance for other environmentalproblems and the uncertaintiesrelated to the indicator;

past trends and projections (futuretrends).


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3.2 Atmosphere and climate

3.2.1 Greenhouse gas concentrations

Relevance

Emissions of greenhouse gases fromhuman activities are the most importantdriver of recent climate change. Increasesin greenhouse gas concentrations aremost likely responsible for most of the

Figure 3.1 Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared with the year 1750

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

PFC, HFC, SF6CFCN2OCH4CO2

20001990198019701960195019401930192019101900

1900

1910

Year

A

dditiona

lconcen

tra

tion

(partsperm

illion

CO

2-e

qu

iva

len

ts)

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: IPCC, 2001a.

Key messages

Due to human activities, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main

greenhouse gas, has increased by 34 % compared with pre-industrial levels,

with an accelerated rise since 1950. Other greenhouse gas concentrations

have also risen as a result of human activities.

The total rise in all greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era amounts to

170 ppm CO2-equivalent, with contributions of 61 % from CO2, 19 % from

methane, 13 % from CFCs and HCFCs, and 6 % from nitrous oxide.

If no climate-driven policy measures are implemented, a further increase to

6501 215 ppm CO2-equivalent is projected to occur by 2100.

To achieve the EU long-term objective of limiting global temperature rise to2 C, global emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reduced substantially

from 1990 levels.

observed warming over the last 50 years(IPCC, 2001a).

The ultimate objective of the UNFramework Convention on ClimateChange is to stabilise greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at a


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level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with theclimate system. The EU has a long-termobjective to limit global temperaturerise to no more than 2 C above pre-

industrial levels. According to theEU this objective requires a globalCO

2concentration below 550 parts

per million (European Parliamentand Council, 2002), which is abouttwice the pre-industrial level of 280ppm. However, there is considerablescientific uncertainty about whether alimitation to 550 ppm is sufficient toreach the 2 C target. As a response tonew studies, a stricter concentration

target of 450 ppm CO2 has recentlybeen proposed (WGBU, 2003b), in orderto stay within the 2 C temperature riseceiling.

The uncertainties in the measurementsof GHG concentration are very low(about 1 %). The greater uncertainty inthe projection of future trends is mainlydue to uncertainties in future emissionsand, to a lesser extent, incompleteknowledge of the behaviour of the

physical climate system.

Past trends

The concentration of greenhousegases in the atmosphere increased inthe twentieth century due to humanactivities, mostly related to the useof fossil fuels (e.g. for electric powergeneration, industry, households andtransport), agricultural activities, land-

use change (mainly deforestation) andthe use of fluorinated gases in industry.The increase has been particularlyrapid since 1950. Compared withthe pre-industrial era (before 1750),concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO

2)

have increased by 34 %, methane (CH4)

by 153 % and nitrous oxide (N2O) by

17 %. The present concentrations ofCO

2(375 parts per million, ppm) and

CH4

(1 772 parts per billion, ppb) havenot been exceeded in the past 420 000years (for CO2 likely not even in thepast 20 million years); the present N

2O

concentration (317 ppb) has not beenexceeded in at least the past 1 000 years.

Expressing the concentration of eachgreenhouse gas as a 'CO

2-equivalent'

allows a comparison of the differentgases. The total concentration ofgreenhouse gases has increased

by 170 ppm CO2-equivalents since

the pre-industrial era (Figure 3.1).Contributions to this rise come fromCO2 (61 %), CH4 (19 %), N2O (6 %),and from the halocarbons CFCs andHCFCs (13 %), PFCs, HFCs, and SF6(0.7 %). Concentrations of CO

2and N

2O

continue to rise at rates similar to thoseof the past decades. Concentrationsof fluorinated greenhouse gases suchas PFCs, HFCs, and SF

6are rapidly

increasing, partly because HFCs are

substitutes for ozone depleting gases.In contrast, in the last few years CH4

concentrations have levelled off, andconcentrations of the ozone depletingCFCs and most HCFCs, which are alsogreenhouse gases, are either decreasingor increasing less rapidly as a result ofthe ban on their use and productionunder the Montreal Protocol.

Projections (future trends)

The IPCC has projected differentfuture greenhouse gas concentrations

by 2100 (IPCC, 2001a), due todifferent scenarios of socio-economic,

Source: www.imageafter.com, 2004


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technological and demographicdevelopments. The scenarios assume noimplementation of specific climate-drivenpolicy measures. Under these scenarios,

greenhouse gas concentrations areestimated to rise to 6501 215 ppm CO

2-

equivalent by 2100. It is very likely thatfossil fuel burning will be the major causeof this increase in the twenty-first century(IPCC, 2001a, b, Figure 3.2).

The IPCC also considered whatinterventions would be necessary tostabilise atmospheric CO

2concentration.

Total anthropogenic CO2

emissions

Figure 3.2 Projected increase of GHG concentration in the atmosphere for four different

possible futures

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

B2B1A2A1

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Greenh

ousegasconcen

tra

tion

(inpartsperm

illion

CO

2-e

qu

iva

len

t)

Year

Source: IPCC, 2001a.

would need to be reduced to below1990 emissions within a few decadesto achieve a stable 450 ppm CO2concentration, within about a century to

achieve 650 ppm, or within about twocenturies to achieve 1 000 ppm CO

2. To

reach the EU objective of limiting CO2concentrations to no more than 550 ppmrequires global emissions of greenhousegases to be reduced substantially from1990 levels. A stricter CO2 stabilisationtarget of 450 ppm is likely to require aglobal reduction in emissions of CO2 of45 to 60 % by 2050 compared with 1990levels.

Source: F. Coppin, www.pixelquelle.de, 2004.


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3.2.2 Global and European air temperature

Figure 3.3 Observed annual, winter and summer temperature deviations in Europe

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

SummerWinterAnnual 199019801970196019501940193019201910190018901880187018601850

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

Tempera

ture

dev

iation,

compare

dt

o1961

1990average

(C)

Source: CRU, 2003; Jones and Moberg, 2003.

Key messages

The global average temperature has increased by 0.7 0.2 C over the past

100 years. The 1990s were the warmest decade in the observational record;1998 was the warmest year, followed by 2002 and 2003.

Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 C increase

since 1900. Temperatures in winter have increased more than in summer. The

warming has been greatest in northwest Russia and the Iberian Peninsula.

The rate of global warming has increased to 0.17 0.05 C per decade, a

value probably exceeding any 100-year rate of warming during the past

1 000 years. The indicative target of no more than 0.10.2 C per decade has

already been exceeded or will be exceeded within the next few decades.

From 1990 to 2100, the global average temperature is projected to increase

by 1.45.8 C and 26.3 C for Europe. The 'sustainable' EU target of limiting

global temperature increase to no more than 2.0 C above pre-industriallevels is likely to be exceeded around 2050.

Relevance

The observed increase in average airtemperature, particularly in recentdecades, is one of the clearest signals ofglobal climate change. The consequencesof rising temperatures include impactssuch as increased risk of floods anddroughts, biodiversity losses, retreatingglaciers and new threats to humanhealth. In addition, temperature increase

might damage economic sectors suchas forestry, agriculture, tourism andthe insurance industry. Some sectors,for example forestry or tourism, mayprofit from improving environmentalconditions, depending on their location.Consequently, sectors might be affectedin opposite ways in different parts ofEurope. There is mounting evidence thatanthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases are (mostly) responsible for the


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Map 3.1 Annual temperature deviation in Europe in 2003

20W 45E30N

75N

1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Note: Temperature deviation, relative to average temperature from 19611990 (OC).Source: CRU, 2003; Jones and Moberg, 2003.

recently observed increases in averagetemperature. Natural factors suchas volcanoes and sun activity couldexplain to a large extent the temperaturevariability up to the mid-twentieth

century, but they can explain only asmall part of the recent warming (seealso Chapter 2). In line with the ultimateobjective of the UNFCCC, the EU, in itssixth environmental action programme,has proposed a 'sustainable' target oflimiting global average temperature tono more than 2 C above pre-industriallevels (about 1.3 C above currentglobal mean temperature). Somestudies have proposed an additional

'sustainable' target of limiting the rate ofanthropogenic warming, ranging from0.1 to 0.2 C per decade (see below).

Temperature has been measured formany decades at many locations inEurope. Of all the indicators in thisreport, this one has the best coverageacross Europe and a low measurementuncertainty. The uncertainty of futuretemperature is greater due to lack ofknowledge of aspects of the climate

system, including climate sensitivity(e.g. resulting temperature rise ifCO

2concentrations are doubled) and

seasonal temperature variability (seealso Chapter 5).

Past trends

The Earth and Europe have experiencedconsiderable temperature increases inthe last 100 years, especially in recentdecades. Globally, the increase in thelast 100 years was about 0.7 0.2 C(IPCC, 2001a; CRU, 2003). Within thisperiod, the 1990s were the warmestdecade on record; 1998 was the

warmest year, followed by 2002 and2003 (Jones and Moberg, 2003; WMO,2003).

The rate of global average temperatureincrease is currently about 0.17 0.05 Cper decade (IPCC, 2001a). Indicativetargets restricting the increase to notmore than 0.10.2 C per decade have

been proposed, based on the limitedcapabilities of ecosystems to adapt(Rsberman and Swart, 1990; Leemans


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and Hootsman, 1998; WBGU, 2003b).These proposed targets have already

been exceeded or will be exceeded inthe near future.

The temperature increase in Europeover the last 100 years is about 0.95 C(CRU, 2003; Jones and Moberg, 2003),which is higher than the global average.The warmest year in Europe was 2000;the next seven warmest years occurredin the last 14 years (Figure 3.3). Thereis a wide variation in increasingtemperatures across the continent(Map 3.1). The warming has beengreatest in northwest Russia and the

Iberian Peninsula (Parry, 2000; KleinTank et al., 2002). In line with the globaltrend, temperatures are increasing inwinter more than in summer (+ 1.1 C inwinter, + 0.7 C in summer), resulting inmilder winters and a decreased seasonalvariation (Figure 3.3, Jones and Moberg,2003).

Projections (future trends)

The projected temperature increasebetween 1990 and 2100 is likely to bein the range of 1.45.8 C for the global

Source: Glassman, stock.xchng, 2004.

Map 3.2 Projected temperature changes in Europe up to 2080

Note: Temperature change (0C). Relative to average temperature in the period 19611990.

Intermediate ACACIA scenario in a broad range of possible future emissions.Source: IPCC, 2001b; Parry etal., 2000.

20 W 10 W 10 E 20 E 30 E 40 E0

70 N

65 N

60 N

55 N

50 N

45 N

40 N

35 N2080s


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mean (IPCC, 2001a, Map 3.2) and26.3 C for Europe (Parry, 2000). Thisrange results from potential differentpathways of technological, demographicand economic development (leading

to different emissions), and is due touncertainties related to the climatesystem's response to changingconcentrations of greenhouse gases.Looking at the projected range, the EU'sustainable' target of limiting globalaverage warming to not more than 2 Cabove pre-industrial levels might beexceeded between 2040 and 2060.

Within Europe, the warming isestimated to be greatest over southerncountries (Spain, Italy, Greece) and thenortheast (e.g. western Russia) andless along the Atlantic coastline

(Map 3.2). In southern Europe,especially, this may have severeconsequences such as increasingdrought stress, more frequent forestfires, increasing heat stress and risksfor human health. The European trendthat winters will warm more rapidlythan summers will continue (with theexception of southern Europe).


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3.2.3 European precipitation

Relevance

Precipitation includes rain, snowand hail. Changes in averageprecipitation can have potentiallyfar-reaching impacts on ecosystemsand biodiversity, agriculture (foodproduction), water resources and riverflows. Changes in precipitation paernsover the year can lead to more floodingin some regions or seasons and more

Key messages

Annual precipitation trends in Europe for the period 19002000 show a

contrasting picture between northern Europe (1040 % wetter) and southernEurope (up to 20 % drier). Changes have been greatest in winter in most

parts of Europe.

Projections for Europe show a 12 % increase per decade in annual

precipitation in northern Europe and an up to 1 % per decade decrease in

southern Europe (in summer, decreases of 5 % per decade may occur).

The reduction in southern Europe is expected to have severe effects, e.g.

more frequent droughts, with considerable impacts on agriculture and water

resources.

Map 3.3 Annual precipitation changes in Europe for the period 19002000

Note: Unit: Percentage change per century. Black circles show areas getting wetter and white circlesshow areas getting drier. Circle size is related to the magnitude of the trend. Shaded trends aresignificant at 90 %.Source: IPCC, 2001b; Parry, 2000.

70 N

60 N

50 N

40

eea impacts of europes changing climate 2004

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