effect analysis of the industrial policy of shandong province ren, lijun school of environmental...
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Effect Analysis of the IndustEffect Analysis of the Industrial Policy of ShanDong Prorial Policy of ShanDong Pro
vincevince
REN, LijunREN, Lijun
School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering Shandong University ,Jinan, Shandong, ChinaShandong University ,Jinan, Shandong, China
E-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
IAIA’07 Seoul, 7 Jun 2007IAIA’07 Seoul, 7 Jun 2007
IntroductionIntroduction
Economic effect analysisEconomic effect analysis
Social effect analysis Social effect analysis
Environmental effect analysis Environmental effect analysis
Outline of presentation
Location
Shan Dong Province
15.6 sq. km
1. Economic effect analysis1. Economic effect analysis
Average annual growth rate of economic indicators (%)
Item
Shandong China
1952-
1965
1965-
1978
1978-
1990
1990-
2002
1952- 1965
1965-
1978
1978-
1990
1990-
2002
GDP 5.4 7.7 17.2 17.6 7.4 5.9 14.6 15.5
Per capita GDP 4.0 5.8 15.7 16.8 5.5 3.6 12.9 14.4
Add value of agriculture 3.1 4.5 15.6 10.4 5.1 3.5 14.2 10.2
Add value of industry 10.2 11.6 14.8 19.1 12.4 8.7 12.9 17.3
Investment in fixed assets 12.6 12.7 17.0 16.8 13.1 9.1 13.3 16.6
Total value of imports and exports
4.7 15.5 14.2 18.8 4.6 13.8 14.2 15.3
Utilization of foreign capital ---- ---- 30.5 28.9 ---------- ---------- 9.59 15.0
Local government revenue 6.1 11.0 4.5 15.4 7.6 6.9 8.3 9.7
Industrial structure of Shandong Province
YearYear
Composition of GDP by industriesComposition of GDP by industriesComposition of GDP by Composition of GDP by
industriesindustries
PrimaryPrimaryindustryindustry
SecondarySecondaryindustryindustry
TertiaryTertiaryindustryindustry
LightLightindustryindustry
HeavyHeavyindustryindustry
19521952 65.865.8 18.118.1 16.116.1 84.884.8 15.215.2
19651965 49.049.0 33.633.6 17.417.4 60.360.3 39.739.7
19781978 33.333.3 52.952.9 13.813.8 45.145.1 54.954.9
19901990 28.128.1 42.142.1 29.829.8 50.850.8 49.249.2
20022002 13.213.2 50.350.3 36.536.5 48.948.9 51.151.1
2. Social effect analysis2. Social effect analysis
Social effect indicators analysis of different periods
ItemItemProportion of Shandong in ChinaProportion of Shandong in China
19521952 19651965 19781978 19901990 20022002
Per capita total retail sales of consumer Per capita total retail sales of consumer goodsgoods
0.860.86 0.730.73 0.840.84 0.850.85 1.101.10
Annual pre capita Income of rural Annual pre capita Income of rural householdshouseholds
------ ------ 0.760.76 1.021.02 1.191.19
Per capita balance of saving depositPer capita balance of saving deposit 0.580.58 0.720.72 0.920.92 1.101.10 0.950.95
Per capita area of paved roadsPer capita area of paved roads ------ ------ ------ 2.792.79 2.22.2
Per capita building space in city areaPer capita building space in city area ------ ------ 1.51.5 1.561.56 1.631.63
proportion of employed persons by three industries
YearPrimary industry
Secondary industry
Tertiary industry
1980 78.85 12.27 8.88
1985 68.48 19.81 11.72
1990 63.69 22.82 13.23
1995 48.32 22.48 29.30
2000 43.59 22.24 34.17
2002 41.36 23.15 35.49
The key of The key of industrial policyindustrial policy
Main impacts on EnvironmentMain impacts on Environment
agricultureagriculture soil erosionsoil erosion
desertificationdesertification
grassland degradation grassland degradation
Heavy industryHeavy industry““Steel first”Steel first”
energy consumption increased 21 energy consumption increased 21 times in the periodtimes in the period
Develope light aDevelope light and heavy industrnd heavy industry at the same timy at the same tim
e e Showed in Fig Showed in Fig
1949～ 1952
1952～ 1978
3. Environmental effect analysis3. Environmental effect analysis
1978～ 2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1952 1965 1978 Year
1000
0 te
cEnergy consumption
Waste ai r emi ssi on
05000
100001500020000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2002
100
mill
ion
cu.m
Ai r pol l utant s emi ssi on
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2002
1000
0ton
s
Di scharge of COD
020406080
100120
1985 1990 1995 2002
10000 tons
Waste water di scharge
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2002Year
100
mill
ion
tons
the trend of environmental indicators of Shandong
SO2
soot
ConclusionConclusion
Shandong’s industrial structure was far away Shandong’s industrial structure was far away
from the consummate structure. from the consummate structure.
Shandong province should pay more attention on Shandong province should pay more attention on
tertiary industry development and promote the tertiary industry development and promote the
industrial structural optimization. industrial structural optimization.
Thank you !Thank you !