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EFFECT BASED OPERATIONS AND KNOWLEDGE MOBILIZATION FROM

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT To respond to the terrorist threat, military force must anticipate the unexpected and be

prepared for unimaginable1

INTRODUCTION1. The degree of situational uncertainty has continued to increase as military has to

respond in widely changing conditions. Modern militaries of the world are fighting Asymmetric

Warfare2 as the recent evolution. In asymmetric threat for employing modern, networked

system and innovative technique rivals are not presenting any concentrated target, which can

be neutralized or destroyed. Recently developed, Effect Based Operation (EBO) focuses

essentially on gaining desired effect rather than destruction as done in Attrition Based

Operation. EBO provides versatile application potential that ranges from military operational

planning, national policy making, corporate and diplomatic dealings. Bangladesh (BD) army is

in the process of adopting training on Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) which is

an otherwise EBO in simple terms.

2. Increasingly being termed as the future of military planning, EBO duels with the objective based process and allow planners to play with conditions and causal linkages through which actions lead to objectives. The theory focuses on ‘Shaping the Behavior’ of an adversary where he is viewed not as a target but a complex adaptive system. It is founded upon new manifestations of technology and complexity that compel one to think beyond the linear. Effects-based approach is of as much relevance to 'winning- peace' as it is to winning war.

3. The essay would attempt to hoist an understanding of broad overview of EBO. Comprehending EBO would include security environment, definitional features, domain and complexity of EBO. Real world example, the next segment will talk about a great conquest without fight, UN system that operates for peace and the position of BD army in EBO. Finally, the essay will suggest some tools of corporate strategic management for ‘Knowledge Mobilization’ in favor of EBO, as they always ‘Fight in Peace’.

1 NATO. 2003, project description: Leader and Team Adoptability in Multinational Coalitions: Cultural Diversity in Cognition and Teamwork. 2

? The US military's recent Joint Staff definition opines that asymmetric warfare consists of ‘unanticipated/ non-traditional approaches to circumvent or undermine an adversary's strengths while exploiting his vulnerabilities through unexpected technologies or innovative means’

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AIM4. Aim of this essay is to thrash out the latest strategic development of the most advanced armies, suggest some tools of corporate strategic management for knowledge mobilization in support of EBO.

COMPREHENDING EFFECT BASED APPROACH5. Security Environment. Global security environment today is extensively networked, interconnected, complex and continually changing. “Today’s global environment consists of a network of complex interconnected adaptive systems that extend beyond the domain of historic military operations and geographic battle space. Planning and execution of future operations must... integrate fully with government and nongovernmental agencies as well as with multinational partners”3. For the changed global security scenario, threat can no longer be viewed as an objective; rather to be analyzed as a compound system having political, military, social, economic and other dimensions like infrastructure and information systems known as PMSEII. Effect Based Approach aims at changing the behavior of the opponent in order to achieve a desired end state. Changing of behavior occurs only when the nodes4 are influenced through different lines of operations. EBO identifies that national power assets of diplomacy, information, military and economy (DIME) are to be used to bring in desired change.

6. Defining the Operation. According to US Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) Glossary, Effect based operation, is a process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or “effect” on the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range of military and nonmilitary capabilities at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. E. A. Smith defines EBO as, "Effect based operations are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war5. Davis observed6

that definition of EBO was not commonly agreed upon, but there is a degree of general understanding of three properties in common, firstly, the aim is primarily to, 'produce desirable results at all Ievels of conflict in the most effective and efficient way'. Secondly, there is a focus upon ‘shaping the behavior’, and finally, there is recognition (explicit or implicit) that it is dealing with a ‘complex and interconnected system’.

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? Joint Warfighting Center, Operational Implications of Effects Based Operations (EBO), Pamphlet 7, (Norflok: US joint Forces Command, 17 Nov,2004), p1. 4

? Adversaries’ system of political, military, social, economic, infrastructure and information briefly known as PMSEII, are interconnected with each other and these junctions are called as nodes.

5 Smith, Edward. A, Effect Based Operations, Appling Network Centric Warfare in Peace, Crisis, and War, Center for Advance Concepts and Technology, DOD Command and Control Research Program, USA, Nov 2002 p10.6

? David, Paul. K. Effect-Based Operations (EBO): A grand Challenge for the Analytical Community’, RSND, 2001, p7.2

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6. Defining ‘Effect’. The JFCOM Glossary definition of effect is, “The physical,

functional or psychological outcome, event, or consequence that results from specific military

or non-military actions”. Smith's broad definition implies that "effects may be either kinetic or

non-kinetic, and may equally be physical or psychological/ cognitive in nature"7. Thus effect is

not only the direct impact but also indirect and successive or cumulative impact which might

also embrace cascading or chain impact. JFCOM Glossary definitions, indirect effects are

second and third order systematic effects that are the results created through an intermediate

effects or mechanism to produce the final outcome. Cumulative effects result from the

aggregate of many direct or indirect effects. An example of Cascading Effect is, when an

enemy central headquarters is destroyed the effects cascade down through the enemy

echelons to ultimately disrupt numerous tactical units on the battlefield.

7. The Domains of EBO. Behind every predetermined action there is a planning

process which is mainly influenced by information. So the process can be segregated in clear

three domains, namely, physical domain (action), information domain and cognitive domain

(decision). Adversaries’ actions reactions are observed and reported to higher authority in

information domain, and then decisions are made by commanders. Recent researchers

recognize, the presence of social domain above the cognitive (inclusive in it) domain, which

basically influence 'sense making’. The aim of EBO is to play with the mind of the opponent

commander and influence his behavior by doing some actions. EBO hence can be described

as operations in the cognitive domain; where human beings react to stimuli, come to an

understanding of a situation, and decide on a response8. But the presence of social domain

only at the top of the cognitive domain is not as simple as described by E. A. Smith. Perhaps it

has much deeper connotations over the information level (as shown in 3 rd box of figure 1).

Because the flow of feedback from down to top, in every stage, it will be customized as the

person perceives the action. So, social domain of all commanders (resides in information

domain) will influence decision making of the highest commanders cognitive domain.

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? Smith, Op Cit, Chapter 3, p111.8 Asadullah Minhaz, Band of Brothers & the societal debt, The Ad Communications, November 2010, p-77.

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Figure 1; Presence of social domain up to information domain9

8. Sense Making to Decision Making. Because of the varied perception of human psychology, actions are interpreted and understood differently. Perceptions varies because of own prior experience, mental models, culture, and institutional attachments. This perception will then be translated into a ‘sense’ of the situation. Finally, this sense will be balanced against the alternatives available by manipulating elements of national power to produce a set of decisions. These choices then to be weighed out against possible reactions and this action-reaction cycle to be repeated as many times as possible. In simple terms, the planners, after analyzing the adversaries action or probable actions, would find out the key nodes which are important to create an effect in his overall PMESII system and the diplomatic, information, military and economic elements would be directed after weighing out action reaction cycle. But this is not as simple as illustrated, rather presents a complex phenomenon of numerous improbability because of direct, indirect, cumulative and cascading effects.

9. Complexity of EBO. As EBO is all about shaping behavior, it involves all the

complexity of human psychology. The link between action and behavior is complex because it

involves many interdependent variables that are themselves evolving. Thus a given action can

produce outwardly infinite variety of effects, and each of these may produce additional

cascading effects10. Again it does not merely speak of ‘an action’ creating ‘an effect’, but of

‘coordinated sets of actions’. It also does not produce a single clearly defined effect as the end

state rather sees the actions ‘shaping’ a ‘behavior’ as end state. This is to say it sees both a

process and an end state that are neither precise nor solely the product of the actions.

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? Prepared by Author.10

? Cascading effect are, indirect effects that can ripple through an enemy target system, often influencing other target systems as well. Most often this cascading of indirect effects flows from higher to lower levels of war.

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REAL LIFE EXAMPLE Conquest of Mecca without warfighting10. E. A. Smith have analyzed 400 crisis responses of US since the end of Second World

War and shorted the major ones to apply EBO to observe the effect in the real world. This

essay will evaluate one of the greatest victories of Islam- Conquest of Mecca in 631 AD, in

light of EBO. This operation is chosen because, “The European historians have admitted that,

no conquest was made without bloodshed and no forgiveness was shown like this one

vanquished in the history of the ancient and modern world”11. One might be wondering, how a

person could device EBO before fourteen hundred years? It was only possible because of

correct assessment of asymmetric threat (personal rivalry or small resistance in any of the four

approaches against a ten thousand troop’s army) and winning the ‘hearts and minds’ strategy.

The story goes like; Mohammed (s) amassed ten thousand troops for this great operation just

opposite of the hills of Mecca (4 to 5 miles away) without any notice of the opposition. To do

so, he moved his main force from Medina in opposite direction and then turned his course and

biffed up the force enroute. To amplify and show a false front he ordered to create camp fire at

night with a greater area which was actually occupied. The opponents (force of Abu Sufyan)

were too scared to put up any resistance, so Muslims entered Mecca without any

confrontation.

11. The background of this victory is not as plain and simple as it was conquered. For

thirteen years Mohammed (s) tried to win the hearts and minds of the people of Mecca, but

could not, as expected and migrated to Medina with some followers. He took over the

leadership, build a spirited team and faced three major engagements within eight years. On

the occasion of violating ‘Hudaiba Treaty’,12 assessing (collecting information) enemies’

weakness, before invading Mecca he developed diplomatic tie with the allies. He also

enforced economic sanction on his enemies by disrupting trade and commerce and

diplomacy. Here we find Mohammed (s) utilized all elements of national power- diplomacy,

information, military and economy (bold).

11 Dr. Majid Ali Khan, Rabitat- al- Alam al- Islam (Mecca) Award Winner, Mohammed the Final Messenger, Prominent Printer, Dehli-110032, 1980, p-281.12

? Early in A.D. 628 the Holy Prophet along with fourteen hundred companions proceeded to Mecca to perform the pilgrimage. On the way at a place named Hudaibia Muslims encamped, where Quraish came and barred them to go for pilgrim. After a lone conversation a treaty was signed name Hudaibia Treaty. Main two conditions of the four are; The Muslims were to withdraw that year without performing the pilgrimage. They were free to perform the Hajj the following years. There was to be a truce between the Muslims and the Quraish for a period of ten years. 

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12. Some Kuraish leaders including Abu Sufyan were confiscated while reconnoitering the

night before the invasion. After a short conversation, to influence the political leaders Mohammed (s) said, “All your faults are forgiven, Abu Sufyan! And the one enters your house

shall also be safe”. Returning Mecca Abu Sufyan told the people of the society about the

safety guaranty and also informed them about the great strength of the Muslim Army, pointing

out the utter futility of offering any resistance. Infrastructure like Ka’ba, own home and

Sufyan’s house were declared as safe haven. All elements of opponent’s PMSEII systems

(bold and italic) were found to be addressed by the greatest leader. So, supporting the

argument of Dr. Majid Ali Khan ‘Conquest of Mecca without warfighting’ can be termed as the

most primitive and the most successful Effect Based Operation.

Effect Based Approach in UN Peacekeeping Operations 13. Peacekeeping, post-conflict peacebuilding or peacemaking operations of UN are well

known to most of us; still these will be studied for analyzing the involvement of EBO. Once

Security Council of UN decides to operate in a disturbed country, at first diplomats reaches

the spot. They hold number of dialog and exchange information with the leaders of the

warring factions (leaders are mostly the rebel chives, who fights for a political leadership).

After reaching to an agreement UN diplomats calls for military support to make the factions

separate and bind them with the terms and conditions of the treaty, thus the social security is

ensured. Slowly and gradually as per treaty the fighters surrender arms and ammunitions and

returns to normal life. Under the security arrangement of military, other programs and funds

like, UNDP, WFP, UNHCR, UNICEF starts to pore in the country. Donors finance with the aim

to make the country economically stable and these agencies work in coordination with each

other. After a suitable period of time, electoral commission starts working to make the voter list

and other arrangements for electing the upcoming leaders of the country. Infrastructures are

raised to educate, inform and train the people, mostly the youth to take the country forward.

UN agencies gradually hand over the charges of the institutions to the local and pull back its

activities and peace starts prevailing.

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Figure 2; Inbuilt EBO in UN system for peacekeeping operations

14. Above sequence and figure illustrates an Effect Based Operation, behind the scene for peacekeeping efforts. Here diplomacy deals with leaders who interns subside the militia or rebels. UN security force confronts militia in peacemaking operations where, only after political mediation; peace enforcement (use of military muscle) takes place. Normally military ensures social security and security of UN agencies, where is the prerequisite of economic growth. Information system of UN plays the most vital role; it has impact in all the elements of PMSEII. Generally followed, these steps are the product of test and trial since the birth of UN, which might have been done if EBO could be conceived from the beginning.

KNOWLEDGE MOBILIZATION FROM CORPORATESTRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

17. Smith says, “The task will be to tap the knowledge and expertise whatever it is, to make it

available to the warfighters and the decisionmakers who need it”. Though, “Strategy is the

rational planning process orchestrated by the top management….. reflects the military roots of

strategy”,13 this essay will make an endeavor to examine some corporate strategic

management tools in the realm of psychology and technology, which might be utilized for

successful EBO (Figure 3 shows the relation).

13 Charles and Gareth, Strategic Management an Integrated Approach, Houghton Mifflin, New York, 2001, p5. 7

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Figure 3: Relation of military strategy and corporate strategic management for EBO14

Realm of Psychology18. Consumer Behavior. As EBO is all about shaping behavior in war, crisis and

peace so, how corporate shapes the behavior of consumer in peace to fight out the market

share should be scrutinized. Success behind all multinational or local corporate is correctly

identifying the local need. To assess the need, corporate has to play in information domain by

questioner survey and using statistical tools like hypothesis test, Chi-squared test, linear

regression, correlation frequency distribution and so on. Correct recognition of the need of

cognitive domain enables a successfully orchestrated action plan. Examples of these short of

shaping consumer behavior should be studied for EBO and might be adhered to shape the

adversaries behavior. Figure 415 shows how a corporate shapes up a buyer by playing in

cultural, social, personal and finally psychological field.

Figure 4; Factors and sub-factors influences the buyer

19. Study of Psychology in Organizational Behavior. Organizational Behavior is the

study and application of knowledge about how people, individuals, and groups act in

organizations16. Numerous psychological studies have been conducted to find why people

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? Prepared by Author.15

? http://www.sharpastoast.com/marketing/the-relationship-consumer-behavior-segmenting-targeting-and-positioning/16

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behave differently in the organization. Human Resource Managers are mainly responsible for

this field, yet as the subject is taught in the college and university, there persist a lot many

professors and researchers. Successful EBO also needs this knowledge on psychology;

needs specific research on adversaries’ organizational behavior, only then it will be possible to

shape that.

20. Cognitive Dissonance. “Cognitive dissonance is a psychological phenomenon

which refers to the discomfort felt at a discrepancy between what you already know or believe,

and new information or interpretation”17. Experience can clash with expectations, for example,

buyer's repentance following the purchase of an expensive item. The theory of cognitive

dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do

this by changing the attitudes, beliefs, and actions18 through customer care, after sales

service, promotion of products, etcetera. While corporates try to reduce dissonance, military

wants to increase it with the enemy commenders and the opposite with the own.

Understanding dissonance will be of solemn importance to play in cognitive domain, which will

lead to successful EBO.

21. Cognitive Bias. Cognitive bias is a pattern of divergence in decision that occurs in

particular situations. Bias arises from information-processing shortcuts, motivational factors,

social influence and a mixture of other phenomenon that are sometimes difficult to distinguish.

Some biases affect decision making as deceptive correlation affect how likely something is, or

whether one thing is the cause of another. Consistency bias19 is again opposite form, like

remembering one's past attitudes and behavior as more similar to one's present attitudes.

There are biases specific to groups as well as biases at the individual level. Understanding

and knowledge of all these critical psychological patterns of the opponent will help devising a

soothing strategy.

22. Core Ideology. Like Peters and Waterman a decade earlier, Jerry Porras and James

Collins spent years conducting empirical research on what makes great companies. Six years

of research uncovered a key underlying principle behind the 19 successful companies that

? http://www.nwlink.com/~donclark/leader/leadob.html17

? http://www.learningandteaching.info/learning/dissonance.htm18

? Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Cognitive_ dissonance# cite_ note-Festinger1957-119

? Schacter, D.L. (1999). "The Seven Sins of Memory: Insights from Psychology and Cognitive Neuroscience". American Psychologist 54 (3): 182–203. doi:10.1037/0003-066X.54.3.182. PMID 10199218

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they studied: They all encourage and preserve a core ideology20 that nurtures the company.

Even though strategy and tactics changes, the companies, nevertheless, were able to

maintain a core set of values. These core values encourage employees to build an

organization that lasts. The same core ideology is found in all the terrorist groups, which is

needed to be reversed then that of corporate.

Dominion of Technology 23. Information Technology Driven Strategy. Today the firms with information know-

how, free from cumbersome physical assets, are changing the competitive landscape and

redefining market segments21. One demonstration of this phenomenon is Personalized

Marketing22 also called personalization, and sometimes called one-to-one marketing.

Information technology allows marketers to treat each individual as its own market, a market of

one. Traditional ideas of market segments will no longer be relevant if personalized marketing

is successful. This idea will immensely benefit military in handling asymmetric warfare. All we

need is to visualize the theme and customize our own requirement.

24. Quantitative Marketing Research.  Marketing is an interactive process in which both

the buyer and seller arrives at a satisfying agreement on the ‘Marketing Mix’- ‘Four Ps’ of

marketing; Product, Price, Place and Promotion. Marketing research makes extensive use

of social science, psychology, sociology, mathematics, statistics, economics, anthropology

and neuroscience23. Marketers use the information obtained by a survey to understand the

needs of individuals and to create strategies and marketing plan. Military calculates time,

space and resources of enemy and own. Whereas EBO might need quantitative research to

find out the adversaries’ need (product), the level of sacrifice (price) they want to accept, use

of space (place) and feeding the information for manipulating his decisions (promotion24).

25. Network Society. Manuel Castells, describes a network society characterized by:

globalization, organizations structured as a network, instability of employment, and a social 20 Jerry Porras and James Collins, Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies, HarperCollins, 1994.21

?  A market segment is a sub-set of a market made up of people or organizations with one or more characteristics that cause them to demand similar product and/or services based on qualities of those products such as price or function. 22

? Personalized marketing is an extreme form of product differentiation. Whereas product differentiation tries to differentiate a product from competing ones, personalization tries to make a unique product offering for each customer.23 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing24

? Promotion is the business of communication with customer. It will provide information that will assist them in making a decision to purchase a product or service. 

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divide between those with access to information technology and those without25. Though the

theory talks about a cyber network, Bangladeshi NGOs like Grameen, BRAC, ASA, TMSS and

many others are the perfect examples of physically networked business. Grameen have

already achieved Nobel Peace Prize, BRAC is the 4 th largest SME in the world. These NGOs

are disbursing micro credit through a well developed networked system. These models of

virtual (cyber) and actual (physical) network should be studied and might be incorporated in

EBO to develop network and disrupt adversaries’ one.

26. I ntellectual Capital and Horizontal Integration/ Out Sourcing . Thomas A. Stewart

uses the term intellectual capital26 to describe the investment an organization makes in

knowledge. It is composed of firstly, human capital- the knowledge inside the heads of

employees. Secondly, customer capital- the knowledge inside the heads of customers that

decides to buy. Finally, structural capital- the knowledge that resides in the company itself.

Investment for knowledge mobilization is the prerequisite for EBO. There are two options

available, one is outsourcing27 the learned, intellectuals and the other is horizontal

integration28.

CONCLUSIONS

27. In response to the asymmetric attack in homeland and battle space both in peace and

war, EBO is recently conceptualized by the scholars of the West. It focuses essentially on

gaining desired effect rather than the destruction as done in Attrition Based Operation.

Currently, effect based thinking come to the forefront of world affairs, and thought to be the

future of military planning. EBO also provides a versatile application potential that includes

national policy making, corporate strategy and diplomatic dealings, it is of as much relevance

to 'winning- peace' as it is to winning war.

28. Effect Based Approach aims at changing the behavior of the opponent in order to

achieve a desired end state, which occurs when the nodes are influenced through different

25 Castells Manuel, The Rise of the Network Society, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture Vol. I, 2000, Oxford, UK. 26

? Thomas A. Stewart, Intellectual Capital: The New Wealth of Organizations,1997, http://en.wikipedia. org/wiki27

? Outsourcing is the act of one company contracting with another company to provide services that might otherwise be performed by in-house employees. Outsourcing is done mainly to manage space, time and other resource constrains.28

? The merger of companies at the same stage of production in the same or different industries. Here it is meant to integrate the learned of different faculty with military for knowledge mobilization.

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lines of operations. EBO identifies that national power assets of diplomacy, information,

military and economy are to be used to bring in desired change. On the other hand, threat can

no longer be viewed as an objective; rather to be analyzed as a compound system having

political, military, economic, social and other dimensions like infrastructure and information. In

these context three domains, namely, physical, information and cognitive domain are identified

by the scholars, where EBO deals with cognitive domain for shaping the behavior. The link

between action and behavior is again complex because it involves numerous interdependent

variables. Thus a given action can produce infinite variety of effects and each of these may

produce additional indirect, cumulative and cascading effects.

29. One of the greatest victories of Islam- Conquest of Mecca in 631 AD is evaluated in

light of EBO. It is no wondering, that Mohammed (s) devised the most primitive and the most

successful EBO before fourteen hundred years. Correct assessment of asymmetric threat and

winning the hearts and minds strategy enabled him to do so. Amazingly UN system is also

found to be following the EBO, just because it is involved in ‘shaping the behavior’ of rebel

rather fighting out. Both the examples speak about true peace psyche of the planner, so we

may conclude peaceful solutions of a conflict drive towards successful EBO. ‘Peacekeepers

BD army’ should also enlist EBO, to keep pace with this modernization, by horizontally

integrating the national power components.

30. Horizontal integration/ out sourcing of intellectuals for knowledge mobilization is the key

to success. After critically analyzing numerous strategies pursued in corporate, many are

found to be adaptable in EBO. In the realm of psychology consumer behavior, organizational

behavior, cognitive dissonance, cognitive bias, and core ideology are found to suitable in

shaping behavior. In dominion of technology used by the corporate strategy driven from

information technology, quantitative marketing research, network society and intellectual

capital might be adopted with necessary modifications to fit the requirement of effect based

operations.

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RECOMMENDATIONS

31. Analyzing the global security scenario and the latest concepts of warfighting this essay

recommends the following:

a. With the drift towards MOOTW training incorporating the civilian counterpart,

strategists of BD army might also think of integrating other national elements of power

for ‘shaping the behavior’ of adversaries in future.

b. Knowledge Mobilization in support of effect based operation is of vital

importance for its success. Corporate strategic management tools on psychology and

technology will be fruitful for understanding of shaping behavior.

Total Words- 4030

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Md Wahidul Haque, psc

Major

DAA&QMG

403 Battle Group

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