effective altruism workshop_hillebrandt
TRANSCRIPT
Introductions: who are you?
Everyone sit close to front Introduce yourself to neighbours Icebreakers: If you could wake up with any 1 ability tomorrow, what would it be? Which superhero did the most good?
Concretetoolsforfiguringouthowtodothemost
goodHaukeHillebrandt
DirectorofResearchatGivingWhatWeCan
What is “Effective Altruism”?
• www.effectivealtruism.org • Sign up for our newsletter
• Givewell.org • Check out the AMF report
• Open Philanthropy Project • Check out the CGD grant writeup
What is “Effective Altruism”?
• Effective altruism is a philosophy and social movement
• The core idea: • Effective altruism is using evidence and analysis to take actions that help others as much as possible.
Academic research (from 80,000 hours):
Earnings: Don’t worry
• Projected GDP per capita in the UK will be 130,000 USD by 2040
Howdoyouevaluateacharity,causearea,orsocialbusinessopportunity?
ITNFramework
• Importance–Whatisthescaleoftheproblem?• Howmanypeopledoesitaffect?• Howbadlydoesitaffectthem?
• Tractability–HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?• Neglectedness/Crowdedness–howmanypeopleareworkingonitalready?
ITNframework:ExampleDeworming
Importance:Globaldisabilityburden
Interactive exercise: Global Burden of Disease Study http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ Task 1: figure out what a DALY and QALY is! Task 2: play around with the settings to find something that surprises you.
YLD Years Lived with Disability - the amount a disease affects someone is given a disability weight. The disability weight is multiplied by the number of years lived with that disease to calculate YLD
YLL Years of Life Lost - the number of years of potential life lost (relative to an idealised life expectancy) from a particular disease or risk factor. This is equal to a disability weight of 1.
DALY Disability-adjusted life year; a measure of disease burden which quantifies both morbidity and mortality; calculated by summing YLL and YLD. The cost-effectiveness is measured in $ per DALY averted.
QALY Quality-adjusted life year - similar to a DALY but measures the inverse (a QALY is good and measure QALYs gained, while a DALY is bad and we measure DALYs averted). The cost-effectiveness is measured in $ per QALY gained.
Tractability:HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?
Tractability:HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?
Intractable: CRISPR?
Prison reform in the US
Less tractable: basic income?
Neglectedness/Crowdedness:VaccinaDons?
RoomformorefundingforNeglectedTropicalDiseases:billionseveryyear
GatesFoundaDonAnnualBudget
Neglectedness/Crowdedness
Scien>ficEngagement
DiseaseBurden
Questions about neglectedness: • What is the median consumption per capita in Germany? • What is the median consumption (PPP adjusted) in the poorest country on the planet? • How much do we spend in the Germany spend on health per person per year on average? • What is the upper bound for the DRC?
Gesundheitsbudget in Deutschland
• Etwa 4000 € pro Person pro Jahr
• Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf Demokratische Republik Kongo: 648 Dollar pro Jahr!
• How much do we spend for one healthy year of life? • How much does it cost to avert a DALY globally? • Value of a statistical life? • $ per death prevented in the developing world?
Neglectedness policy: climate change vs. antibiotic resistance vs AI safety
ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses
• Health:Whatdoesayearofhealthylifecost?Howmuchdoesitcosttosavealife?
• Wealth:Netpresentvalueanalysis:whataretheeconomic,social,environmentalbenefitperdollar?Whatisthebenefitcost-raDo?
Health:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:whatdoesayearofhealthylifecost?Howmuchdoesitcosttosavealife?
• DiseaseControlPrioriDes2
Health:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Yearsofhealthylifeadded?
• DiseaseControlPrioriDes2
Wealth:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis
• CopenhagenConsensusCenter‘EconomistGraph’
ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis
ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis?
Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90
ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis? Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90Deworming Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$50
(Bairdetal.2012)
ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis? Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90Deworming Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$50
(Bairdetal.2012)
ExpectedValuecalculaDon:$50*2%=$1->sDllbeatscashtransfer
HowdoyoufindinformaDon?
Effec>vealtruists…
…weloveepistemicrigorandhigh-qualityevidence…weliketofigureoutwherewe’rewrong…we’rewillingtochangeourmindsbasedongoodevidenceandsolidreasoning
scholar
Google scholar: deworming
Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis
• Micronutrient Deficiencies • SMS reminders for vaccinations • Prevention of HIV/AIDS • Climate Change • Your own favourite cause • Find a new cause area
US Poverty Global poverty
Scale 46m on $20 per day
1bn+ on $1 per day
Neglectedness $900bn welfare $130bn aid
Solvability Most interventions don’t work
Cash transfers work
Global Poverty vs US Poverty
Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis
Reading: • https://80000hours.org/articles/problem-framework
Importance:Iodinedeficiency
Tractability:TotalAddi>onalAnnualCostofAchieving90%CoveragewithNutri>onInterven>ons
Nutrition interventions Cost Salt iodisation $68 Multiple micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy (includes iron-folate)
$472
Calcium supplementation in pregnancy $1914 Energy-protein supplementation in pregnancy $972
Vitamin A supplementation in childhood $106 Zinc supplementation in childhood $1182
Breastfeeding promotion $653 Complementary feeding education $269
Complementary feeding supplementation $1359
Severe acute Malnutrition management $2563
Total $9559 64
scholar
Whatisanaturalexperiment?
SaltIodizaDonintheUnitedStatesinthe1920sandinfluenceonI.Q.–Feyreretal.• Theylookedatdatafrom2millionparDcipants
1920:
1925:
1926:
Giving What We Can !- ~2200 members have pledged to donate to effective organisations - 800 million dollar pledges - 10 Million Dollar donated - 4 Million Dollar in the next year
The “Giving What We Can” Pledge
• “I recognise that I can use part of my income to do a significant amount of good. Since I can live well enough on a smaller income, I pledge that for the rest of my life or until the day I retire, I will give 10% percent of what I earn to whichever organisations can most effectively use it to improve the lives of others mprove the lives of others, now and in the years to come. I make this pledge freely, openly, and sincerely.”
£50 £
£
£
£
1 year of healthy life
100 children dewormed
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$
$
Save several lives =
=
1% for students!!! !
MORE INFORMATION ON: Website:
Blog: Facebook: Twitter:
givingwhatwecan.org
givingwhatwecan.org/blog
facebook.com/givingwhatwecan
twitter.com/givingwhatwecan
Thank You
Conclusion
• UsetheITNFramework:• Importance• Tractable• Neglected• Cost-effecDve
• UseGoogleScholar• Clickthecitedbybukontoseewhatotherexpertshavetosayaboutatopic• CreateAlertsforyourfavouritetopics
• Naturalexperimentsarecool
Malaria