effects of climate change on animal health in africa · ipcc - wgi understanding and attributing...
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Effects of climate change on animal health in Africa
Matthew BaylisVeterinary Clinical ScienceUniversity of Liverpool
SWIMMER workshop, Jan 18, 2007
Examples of climate-disease links (6)
Bluetongue• The components of Vectorial
Capacity are strongly linked to temperature.
• When raised at high but sub-lethal temperatures, innate resistance to viral infection is overcome.
• Disperal is associated with movements on winds
0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.16
25 30 31 32 33 pupaeat 33
Prop
ortio
n of
fem
ales
pos
itive
for B
TV 1
0
Rearing temperature /ºC
How climate change will affect diseases
Via direct effects on:• Pathogens• Hosts• Vectors• Dynamics/epidemiology
And via indirect effects on populations, communities, landscape structures etc
Evidence for climate change’s effects on infectious disease: bluetongue
Culicoides biting midge European temperature change: 1980s v 1990s
“The spread of bluetongue and its vectors presents some of the strongest evidence to date that climate change is driving vector-borne diseases into new regions, as warming and disease spread have occurred at the same times in the same places”
(Future Threats, Appendix A)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
7IPCC
The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate given to it in 1988 by its parent organisations: the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP)
Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical
and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its
potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)Climate Change)
“Reporting the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment”, Moscow, 10 July 2008
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Years Before Present
Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record
Current(2001)
Projected(2100)
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO 2
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pmv)
Les niveaux attendus du CO2atmosphérique pendant les 100
prochaines années sont supérieurs à ce
qu’ils ont toujours étéau cours des 440 000
dernières années
Expected CO2-concentrations are higher than observed at any time
over last 800 000 years
2007
Projection (2100)
IPCC - WGI
Warming is Unequivocal
Rising atmospheric temperature
Rising sea level
Reductions in NH snow
cover
Attribution
are observed changes
consistent with expected responses to forcings?inconsistent with alternative explanations?
Observations
All forcing
Solar+volcanic
IPCC - WGI
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
This is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely (>66%) to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”. .
16IPCC
Source: IPCC, AR4 (2007)
NB: Reference: 1980-1999 average
Conseil d’Administration du 30 juin 2006
JSC WCRP, 1st April 2008
Climate change simulated by OAGCMs and convergence (IPCC, 2007)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Brand new in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.
IPCC - WGI
Changes in average produce changes in probability of extremes
Virtually certain > 99%, very likely > 90%, likely > 66%, more likely than not > 50%
Post 1960 21th century
Changements climatiques (5b)
QuickTime™ et udécompresseur TIFF (nosont requis pour visionn Augmentation de température importante dès 2050QuickTime™ et udécompresseur TIFF (nosont requis pour visionn A la fin du 21ème S, selon scénarios (CO2) et modèles :
QuickTime™ etdécompresseur TIFF sont requis pour visio Température +2,4 à 6,6 °C en étéQuickTime™ etdécompresseur TIFF sont requis pour visio Précipitations + 6 à 23 % en hiver
0 à - 50 % en été
Belgique
Temperatuurstijging
Nee
rsla
gve
rand
erin
g
ZomerWinter
UC
L (in
stit.
G. L
emai
tre),
d’ap
rès
GIE
C :
http
://ip
cc-d
dc.c
ru.u
ea.a
c.uk
/
+6 °C
+20%
-50 %
+5 °C
2080
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Technical Paper: “Climate Change and Water”: www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session28/doc13.pdf
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
⌧
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
IPCC
All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])