effects of el nino on the south pacific islands virginia smith ce 394k.3, gis in water resources...
TRANSCRIPT
Effects of El Nino on Effects of El Nino on the South Pacific the South Pacific
IslandsIslands
Virginia SmithCE 394K.3, GIS in Water Resources Term Project Presentation
University of Texas at Austin
What is an El Nino?What is an El Nino?
An oscillation of the An oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere ocean-atmosphere system in the system in the tropical Pacifictropical Pacific
Causes global Causes global weather alterationsweather alterations
Typically occur Typically occur every 3-7 yearsevery 3-7 years
““The Christ Child”The Christ Child”
Forming an El NinoForming an El Nino
Easterlies blow water to the western Easterlies blow water to the western PacificPacific
Warm water collectsWarm water collects Trade winds relax and rainfall patterns Trade winds relax and rainfall patterns
begin to shiftbegin to shift Thermocline is depressed in the eastern Thermocline is depressed in the eastern
Pacific and elevated in the westPacific and elevated in the west Rainfall follows the warm water eastwardRainfall follows the warm water eastward
Impacts of an El NinoImpacts of an El Nino
Increase in rain in Increase in rain in Americas (flooding, Americas (flooding, landslides)landslides)
Decrease in rain in Decrease in rain in west Pacific west Pacific (droughts, crop (droughts, crop failure and fires)failure and fires)
Fluctuation in Fluctuation in Pacific temperature Pacific temperature (marine life (marine life dramatically hurt)dramatically hurt)
CyclonesCyclones
CyclonesCyclonesCyclones in the Tropical Pacific
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Number of Storm Days
Win
d S
pee
ds
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Small Island nations…like Small Island nations…like SamoaSamoa
Agricultural baseAgricultural base FisheriesFisheries Limited InfrastructureLimited Infrastructure Destructive cyclonesDestructive cyclones Increase in DiseaseIncrease in Disease
Benefits of PredictionBenefits of Prediction
Social benefitsSocial benefits Economic opportunities for Economic opportunities for
agriculture, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, fisheries, forestry and energyenergy
Water harvestingWater harvesting Prediction for disease outbreakPrediction for disease outbreak
Predicting an El NinoPredicting an El Nino Conditions in the tropical Pacific can Conditions in the tropical Pacific can
predict climate variations on a short predict climate variations on a short term basisterm basis Surface sea temperature (SST), sea level Surface sea temperature (SST), sea level
analysis, and monitoring winds, analysis, and monitoring winds, temperature, and air pressure temperature, and air pressure
Using satellites, moored buoys, Using satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys and island data drifting buoys and island data
Difficult to predictDifficult to predict
Surface Sea TempSurface Sea Temp
Sea Level Variations by Sea Level Variations by CountryCountry
What’s Happening TodayWhat’s Happening Today
Groups disagree if Groups disagree if we are entering an we are entering an El Nino or feeling El Nino or feeling the effects of global the effects of global warmingwarming
More cyclonesMore cyclones Higher SSTHigher SST West sea surface West sea surface
slightly higherslightly higher
Any Questions?Any Questions?