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Effects of future e-mobility on the energy supply system.
Prof. Dr. Thomas Kienberger
DI Bernd Thormann
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100
200
300
400
Total primary energyconsumption 2016
Renewable primary energyconsumption 2016
Renewable primary energypotential 2050
Ener
gy in
TW
h
Industry Biomass
Residential, public services and other Hydropower
Mobility Solar, wind and other renewables
Non-energetic consumption
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Sectoral Energy demand in Austria and Renewable Potentials
Source: Sejkora, Christoph; Kienberger, Thomas (2018)
∆E = 130 TWh/a
Efficiency
Imports
Total renewable potential:
approx. 240 TWh/a
(50 % - 80 % electricity)
Sector traffic:
105 TWh/a
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Traffic related CO2-emissions strongly raised since 1990 – especially
transportation of goods.
Taking COP21 serious, we have to fully decarbonize the sector traffic within the
next 32 years!
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5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2005 2015 2030 2050
CO
2-E
mis
sio
ns
[Mt/
a]
cars trucks and busses motor cycles train
Decarbonizing the sector traffic in Austria
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EU-target 2030:
traffic : –28%
EU-target 2050:
traffic : –88%
We need both:
Gas-driven vehicles for
long ranges and heavy
weights
EVs for individual traffic
with it‘s short- to medium
distances
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High-level Research Question:
How can local, renewable resources support the supply of local electric mobility in the long term and how can it be integrated into the municipal distribution grid in a good technical and economical sense?
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How do electrical low-voltage
grids deal with future EV-
penetration-rates?Do we need grid
expansion or are there
other strategies to
integrate EVs properly?
Scientific methodology
1. Modelling typical low-voltage grids. Validation of grid-models by long time measurements atsignificant grid objects.
2. Determination of EV-load profiles based on measurements different EV-types and user-group specific traffic analysis
3. Determination of impacts on the grid for two different Scenarios and different EV penetration-rates. (phase imbalances and voltage deviations according to EN50160, thermal line utilization according to line specifications)
Resent Research-project Move2Grid
verkehrplus
G r a z We i m a r B o n n| |
P r o g n o s e , P l a n u n g u n dt r a t e g i e b e r a t u n g GmbHS
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Results
Methodical Modelling-approachMeasured data for validating
standard-, and synthetic-
load-profiles on higher levels
of aggregation.
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Grid modelling in Neplan
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V General Consumer
EVEV-Consumer
(Wallbox)
PV PV-Supplier
SP Storage-unit
Working on typical, real-life grid topologies: urban (outskirts), sub-urban and rural
Grid region
Urban
(outskirt)Suburban Rural
Distribution substation 630 kVA 250 kVA 100 kVA
No. of feeders 14 9 3
No. of grid connection
points80 87 18
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Statistical EV- and mobility basic data
Data-base 1: user-
group specific traffic
analysis
Data-base 2: results of the
mobility survey „Österreich
unterwegs 2013/2014“
Aim: Determination how many EV charge simultaneously, and how long
they stay in place (energy to be loaded)
verkehrplus
G r a z We i m a r B o n n| |
P r o g n o s e , P l a n u n g u n d
t r a t e g i e b e r a t u n g GmbHS
Modelling of EV loads
hour
Pro
ba
bili
tyd
en
sity
in 1
/h
Probabilitydensity of arrival-times
Pro
ba
bili
tyd
en
sity
in 1
/kW
h
Probabilitydensity of charged energy
Charged energy in kWh
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Derivation of future grid impacts by simulating several EV penetration rates (PR: 0 – 100%) and –scenarios
Scenario A: State of the Art charging technology
Scenario B: Change to area-wide three-phase charging with red. power
without any loss of comfort
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ParameterEV-Scenarios
Scenario A Scenario B
Charging power 3.7 - 22 kW 3.7 kW
Charging phases Single- and multi-phase Three-phase symmetrical
Modelling of EV loads
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2. Selection of Worst-Case load profiles from all iterations due to that Scenario A is dominated by 22 kW charging
1. Probabilistic modelling of EV load profiles for a defined number of iterations
Statistically determined EV- load profiles
Modelling of EV loads data for EV load profiles
base on measurements on
resent EV types
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20% EV penetration Scenario A: 3,7 – 22 kW ChargingVoltage drops according to EN50160
No grid restrictions in the urban (outskirt) grid, inadmissible voltage
deviations in ⅓ (suburban) and ⅔ (rural) of all grid nodes
Results
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Three-phase charging with reduced power enables the integration of a
100%-penetration avoiding inadmissible voltages.
100% EV penetration Scenario B: 3,7 kW ChargingVoltage drops according to EN50160
Results
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Already a 20% EV-penetration triggers critical thermal
conditions in all the grid regions
Results
20% EV penetration Scenario A: 3,7 – 22 kW Chargingthermal line overloads
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3,7 kW charging reduces thermal line utilizations significantly!
100% EV penetration Scenario A: 3,7 kW Chargingthermal line overloads
Results
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…and outlook
Thanks for your attention
Aggregation of the results to higher grid levels (medium voltage level) in order to determine how future EV can be supplied by regional renewables.
Grid-Implementation of Electrolysis units for H2-production
Summary The determination of effects of future EVs on electrical grids
requires EV load profiles based on real-live traffic analysis. Most of the distances travels are within the range of an EV with 30 kWh battery.
Electrical low voltage grids are fit for future EVs as long as charging takes place with relatively low power (3.7 kW)
This does not lead to losses
in comfort.