Section 3:Vulnerability MethodsEGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental ChangeGina Ziervogel (gina@csag.uct.ac.za) December 2011

This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

Vulnerability is…

An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.

(Bohle et al. 1994)

How do we assess vulnerability?

How do we develop a consensual definition vulnerability?

How do we measure vulnerability?

Choosing appropriate VA methods

The context should drive the choice of methodology and methods

▪ decision goals, analytical teams, priority vulnerabilities

User orientation ▪ An array of methods is essential: the most

useful tools are those that fit the decision framework of the end-users

Scale of analysis important in selection of methods

▪ e.g. appropriate indicators, availability of data

Questions on scope Possible answers

Who is the vulnerability assessment for? Local stakeholders

Other researchers

Regional authorities

National authorities

What is the time frame for the issues to be addressed?

Current issue, decision scheduled

Current planning horizon, 5-15 years

Long-term future, 30-100 years

What is the policy result? Operational guidelines

Project design

Strategic plans

Awareness

Scoping of assessment

Scoping of assessment

Initial Vulnerability Assessment questions

What hazards and stresses are systems exposed to? e.g., economic risks (income loss, debt),

natural hazards Who/ what are the exposure units?

e.g., social groups, ecosystems, regions Where are the vulnerable located? When are people/systems vulnerable? What are the specific reasons for their

vulnerability? e.g., dependence on particular resources,

reliance on certain subsidies, social marginalisation

Initial Vulnerability Assessment questions

• How resilient are the exposure units to current stresses? – institutional capacity, absorption capacity of

ecosystems, diversity of income sources• What would be the consequences of exposure to

stresses?– loss of assets, loss of livelihood, unemployment, loss of

life?• What has been the impact of historical episodes or

comparable events?• What indicators capture current and future vulnerability

under the proposed scenarios? • What potential responses can be pursued to reduce

vulnerability? – operational, strategic, policy/regulatory– scale

Synthesize existing data

Impact assessments Strategic environmental assessments

Livelihoods based analysis Consultations

From Expert judgement, Focus groups & Stakeholder consultation

Past trends and future scenarios work Scenario analysis

Evaluation of existing development frameworks

Establish new data needed

Tools in a VA Toolkit

Agent-based simulation modeling

Bayesian analysis Brainstorming Checklists/multiple

attributes Cognitive Mapping Cost-effectiveness/

Cost-benefit/Expected Value

Cost Impact Analysis Decision conferencing Decision/probability

trees Delphi technique Environmental

assessment/ Strategic Environmental Assessment

Expert judgment

Focus groups Indicators/mapping Influence

diagrams/mapping tools

Multi-criterion analysis Ranking/dominance

analysis/pairwise comparisons

Risk analysis Role-play Scenario analysis Stakeholder

consultation Stakeholder thematic

networks Vulnerability Profiles Wealth ranking

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Steps in VA Assessment

1. Scope assessment2. Decide on initial VA questions3. Establish existing data4. Choose appropriate tools to obtain

necessary data

Buzz group: What is the aim of scoping the

assessment?

Tools in a VA Toolkit

Agent-based simulation modeling

Bayesian analysis Brainstorming Checklists/multiple

attributes Cognitive Mapping Cost-effectiveness/

Cost-benefit/Expected Value

Cost Impact Analysis Decision conferencing Decision/probability

trees Delphi technique Environmental

assessment/ Strategic Environmental Assessment

Expert judgment

Focus groups Indicators/mapping Influence

diagrams/mapping tools

Multi-criterion analysis Ranking/dominance

analysis/pairwise comparisons

Risk analysis Role-play Scenario analysis Stakeholder

consultation Stakeholder thematic

networks Vulnerability Profiles Wealth ranking

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Vulnerability assessment techniques

Livelihood vulnerability Qualitative methods Quantitative methods

Indicators and mappingAgent-based modellingScenarios

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Vulnerability of livelihoods What is a livelihood?

Set of activities Assets Access

Improve or continue existence

Vulnerability of livelihoods

Assets Human Social Financial Physical Natural

Improve or continue existence

Evaluating sustainable livelihoods

Sustainable Livelihoods: The capability of people to make a living and improve their quality of life without jeopardizing the livelihood options of others.

Sustainability implies: Ability to cope with and recover from stresses

and shocks Economic effectiveness and social equity Ecological integrity Resilience to shocks

(Rennie and Singh, 1996)

Benefits of livelihoods approach to VA

An analysis of livelihoods helps VA users to: Identify the most vulnerable groups and

individuals at a community or regional scale Emphasize the links between policy decisions and

household level activities Focus not just on incomes, but also relations,

institutions, access and control of resources Identify the sensitivity of different livelihoods to

stresses, and assess their vulnerabilities and strengths

Captures lessons on how to build community resilience

Assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods

Qualitative Participatory Semi-structured Interviews

Quantitative Surveys Indicators Mapping

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Qualitative methods Participatory approaches

Village mapping Seasonal calendars Matrices Pair-wise ranking Venn diagrams Time line Wealth ranking

Semi-structured questions Focus groups Role-play methods Oral histories

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Climatic calendars2003 2004

J an Feb Maart April Mei J unie J ulie Aug Sept Okt Nov Des J an Feb Maart April Mei J unie

Wat onthou Warm en Geen Ryp en Ryp en Droog Koel weer  Droog  Plant tee Geen Koud en Droog en Warm en Warm en Warm en Droog en Lekker reen Mot dou opvolg reenjy oor droog Reen  Winderig  Droog  Baie Ryp en Na Goue Reen  Ryp  winderig  droog  droog  droog  Ooste Donderweer Bietjie opvolgverskillende Donderweer Geen reen koud Reen  winde  Reen reen aspekte van Reen Vir maand  Goeie reen valdie weer?

Watter impakte Water het Miggies in Het baie Water het As reen val Skade by Het geen Het baie Geen reen Feb te Pad onbe- reen dit nie kan begin saaihet die weer Probleme Die tee. peste  Begin bykom  Help dit vir Lammer oeste Sukses behaal Winde Geen oes  Kort aan gaanbaar mei nie het onsgehad? Gegee Inkomste swak Veld het goed Die plae  Geen melk (sp?) Met tee aan gehad  Tee saad  Veld het geen werk nie(B.V. Boerdery, Deur geen by gekom ooie  Planting reen goed by Veld verbeterinkomstes, Werk (sp?) werk  kan nie plant nie Dit goen (sp?) gekom steedswater, geleenthede Kan begin Saai Is daar werk werk-geleenthede, Is swak vee, plae, parasiete)

Hoe het julle water aangery na steeds water laat tee twee bemark tee gedurende melk vir lammers gee lammers plant tee goud (sp?) soek werks Droogte Kry nog droogte droogte droogte droogte Soek werkaangepas met kampe en eie aangery dae lpv(sp?) later gewag en gekoop melk geleen (sp?) geleenthede hulp droogte hulp hulp hulp hulphierdie weer gedrink een dae le gebid (sp?) hulptoestande?

Wat wou julle Wou vroeg tee wou tee maak meer tee maak wou nuwe wou ploeg wou tee plant wou tee plant wou meer tee wou lande wou graag wou graag wou graag wou tee wou graag wou erasie (sp?) wou paaie grondgraag gedoen het, maakkon nie a.s.g. lande voor- plant skoffer (sp?) teesaad lammers oes en maak eie teen bekamp herstel voorbereiwat julle kon nie? water te kort berei optel bemark werk skep baan (sp?) (skraap)

voltooi

Hoekom nie? water te kort water te kort water te kort droogte geen reen geen reen droogte nie goeie te kort aan daar was nie nie bemark- nie oes a.g.v. kon nie a.g.v. tekort aan tekort aan het nie kontantopvolg reen kontant a.g.v droogte baar droogte droogte kapitaal kapitaal implemente vloei (sp?)

vloei (sp?) (zone) sp?

(Archer et al, 2008)

Climatic calendars

(Archer et al, 2008)

Cognitive mapping

A cognitive model that captures diverse nature of the problem

Useful tool when: different stakeholders have different

perceptions of the problem the options for addressing a problem are

unclear

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Cognitive mapping process

1) State the problem 2) Brainstorm assumptions and solutions3) Group emerging concepts 4) Re-illustrate the concepts so they form a

conceptual model5) Go back to participants 6) Formal cognitive model

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Multiple, inter-related and indirect impacts…

By Emma Archer

Role play

To creatively remove people from their usual roles and assumptions by involving them as a group in analytic thinking and assessment

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Role play process

Open-ended story/ written case description

Describe the setting for the action Participants asked to act out potential

scenarios Record

Tape/video Participant feedback Observer descriptions/notes

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Role-play in Lesotho

By Gina Ziervogel

By Gina Ziervogel

(Ziervogel, 2004)

Lessons learnt

Role-play enabled the question to be ‘experienced’

Lessons for seasonal forecast dissemination Prefer receiving information from person Above-normal forecast helpful Resources not necessary to respond

(Ziervogel, 2004)

Oral histories

Qualitative narratives of individuals’ histories and strategies

Focus: Individual perception Past stress and response Used to suggest indicators

Method Can use semi-structured interview or

participatory methods to inform Multi-stakeholder view of past

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Oral history example: Rangeland quality over time

General questions about perception of past rangeland quality

Use timeline Line with 4 ticks Anchoring events Add: Stones represent best and worst harvest

1980 201020001990

Great-grandmother died

Mozambique floods

Validation of agent-based model output

AGENT BASED MODEL OUTPUT*** TICK 189 ***person-2 (female) DIED AT AGE

62 OF AIDSwas head of household-1person-2 had 10 friends; person-2 had 29 relatives in 5

households (including own)person-7 (male, 36) becomes new

head of household-1burialSociety-0 pays out 360.0

Rand to household-1 for the death of its member person-2

Scenario presented for feedback at village workshop:Hilda dies of AIDS (62, HH head)Funeral cost (R4000); Burial society (R360); Honest becomes

HHH (36)

By Gina Ziervogel

Women’s responseto scenario (Funeral cost, R4000; Burial society,R360; Honest becomes HHH, 36)

By Gina Ziervogel

Men’s response to scenario (Funeral cost, R4000; Burial society,R360; Honest becomes HHH, 36)

By Gina Ziervogel

By Gina Ziervogel

Wealth ranking

Stratifications of groups within a community as understood by community members

Categories▪ Money, availability/access to resources,

health, labour▪ Poor, average, better-off ▪ Represented by colours, symbols,

numbers

Wealth ranking process

Establish categoriesCommunity members place

themselves/ key members place households

Consultation possible

Livelihood approaches: quantitative

IndicatorsQuantitative evaluation of livelihood assets

IndicesBy Gina Ziervogel

Q1 Q2 Q5 Q3 Q7 Q8

 

Age Gender Relationship to household head household size tot.No. of fam fed in household for the ave. month.

no. of months that the household feeds itself from farming.

27M HH 3 3 4

47F wife 7 7 3

63M HH 11 10 6

51F wife 8 7 3

61M HH 10 9 5

76F HH 2 1 3

44M HH 8 7 2

62F wife 6 6 4

73M HH 8 3 3

51F wife 8 6 3

40F HH 3 2 5

49F wife 2 2 3

65M HH 7 6 3

54F wife 8 4 4

30F wife 8 4 5

Role-play example

3 class volunteers (actors) 1 student ‘in distress’ with injured hand 1 friend 1 emergency personnel

Scene 1: Student is panicky about accident, goes to friend for help, who tries to call for help

Scene 2: Student injures hand and is calm about it..

Livelihood indicator approach

Checklist

How likely are the following sources of fire to cause accidents

Example from Class practical 2009

Indicators and mapping

Vulnerability Metrics

Metrics “A system or standard of measurement;

a criterion or set of criteria stated in quantifiable terms” (Oxford English Dictionary)

Metrics important when questioning future states Education; health Identify thresholds Doesn’t capture cause

Indicator: single measure of a characteristic

Index: composite measure of several indicators or indices.

Purpose Capture spatial variation in vulnerability Used for guiding decision-making prioritising intervention

Indicators and mapping

(Miller et al. 2005)

Limitations

Caution complex nature of vulnerability difficulty in capturing diversity and sensitivity

Reflect explicit conceptual framework of vulnerability Can’t compare indicators that assess different

temporal and spatial scales Units of measurement are often inconsistent

(Miller et al. 2005)

Indicator methodology

First identify appropriate indicators in regards to the conceptual framework

Indicators are then transformed into standard scores for mapping• Can use aggregate measures (e.g., food

security index might use crop yield, income, and nutrition measures)

• Explore indicator database structureWhat is the range of values? Are there critical thresholds for vulnerability? Are indicators correlated with each other?

(Miller et al. 2005)

Example: Households and drought in the Sahel: Vulnerability and effective adaptation measures

Who are the most vulnerable groups and what shapes their vulnerability in the face of climate variability and change?

What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from drought hazards?

How does institutional capacity influence the capacity of the affected individuals and households to cope with/adapt to droughts and reduce vulnerability?

Will adaptive capacities change in the future? If so, how? (http://www.aiaccproject.org/)

Rapid Rural Assessment to: Identify major livelihood systems Identify vulnerability indicators, Assign weights to indicators.

Methods Preliminary Survey Focus Group Discussion

Project in Nigeria and Mali: Research Design

(http://www.aiaccproject.org/)

Table: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment in Northern Nigeria (http://www.aiaccproject.org/)

Index Value Measured/Calculated as Range Average

1 Acreage under cultivation 1 Hectares/consumer units 0.1 -2.8 0.6

2 Dependency ratio 1 Labour units/consumer units (inverted) 0.3 – 0.8 0.5

3 Livestock ownership 1 Tropical Livestock Units/consumer units 0.0 – 8.2 3.7

4 Gender of Household Head

1 Value given to sex of household head 1.0 – 2.0 1.8

5 Livelihood diversification 1 Weighted number of non-agricultural income generating activities/consumer units

0.0 - 2.4 0.7

6 Annual cash income 1 In 1000 Naira/consumer units 2.5 – 9.7 4.2

7 Drought Preparedness 1 Value given to use of drought resistant crops and livestock and receives drought related information and advise

0.0 – 2.0 1.1

8 Educational background of the household head

0.5 Value given to highest school level attained by the head of the household

0.0 -4.0 1.8

9 Land tenure situation 0.5 Value given to land tenure situation 1.0 – 3.0 2.5

10 Type of house 0.5 Value given to type of house lived in 1.0 -3.0 1.80

11 Self-sufficiency in food production

0.5 Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in the past 10 years

0.0 -20.0 11.2

12 Family and Social Networks

0.5 Value given to strength of family and social networks.

1.0 – 4.0 2.25

13 Quality of household 0.5 Number of able persons/ number of disabled and or sick persons in the household (inverted)

1.5 – 12.0 7.6

Overall Vulnerability 10 Sum of (index scores * index value) 235.1 to 833.9 472.1

Mapping

Indicators Participatory mapping

Risk of flood and acute drought

Risk of flood and drought

Risk of flood

Risk of acute drought

Risk of drought

LEGEND

Infrastructure, Population and Poor People at Risk by Municipios

Top 1010 -2525 -

60 60 -

291

T.E. Downing

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/

(HDI website 2009)

HDI ClassMissing (10)Low (45)Medium (22)High (100)

Human Development Index

Global desertification

http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html

Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)

Global index of ‘progress towards environmental sustainability’

142 countries Twenty ‘core’ indicators

5 categories: environmental systems, environmental stresses, human vulnerability to environmental risks, a society's institutional capacity to respond to environmental threats, and a nation's stewardship of the shared resources of the global common

core indicators composed of multiple indicators, based on the best available quantitative data. (http://www.ciesin.org/indicators/ESI/)

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/wdc/downloads/maps/sustainability/Environmental_Sustainability_Index/2005_ESI_Scores_by_Country.jpg

The EPI focuses on two overarching environmental objectives: reducing environmental stresses to

human health; promoting ecosystem vitality and sound

natural resource management.

Objectives gauged using 25 performance indicators tracked in six well-established policy categories, which are then combined to create a final score.

(http://epi.yale.edu)

(http://epi.yale.edu)

(http://epi.yale.edu)

Hotspot analysis

• ‘Hotspot’ analysis is an example of integrated VA

– three key areas of information: – environmental stresses; – vulnerability of people & ecosystems to

stresses; – and impacts on ecosystem services

– “Hotspot” is a geographically delineated area where there is a convergence of threats, vulnerability and impacts

(Mathur, 2005)

(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)

Hotspot history

Biodiversity hotspots Norman Myers pioneered in late 80s Must meet two strict criteria:

contain at least 1,500 species of vascular plants (> 0.5 percent of the world’s total) as endemics,

and it has to have lost at least 70 percent of its original habitat.

(Myers et al, 2000)

(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)

Cape Floristic KingdomHotspot Original Extent:

78.555 km2Hotspot Vegetation Remaining:

15.711 km2

Evergreen fire-dependent shrublands characterize the landscape of the Cape Floristic Region, one of the world's five Mediterranean hotspots. Home to the greatest non-tropical concentration of higher plant species in the world, the region is the only hotspot that encompasses an entire floral kingdom, and holds five of South Africa’s 12 endemic plant families and 160 endemic genera. The geometric tortoise, the Cape sugar-bird, and a number of antelope species are characteristic of the Cape Floristic hotspot.

(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)

Succulent KarooHotspot Original Extent: 102,691km2Hotspot Vegetation Remaining: 29,780km2

Integrated VA of areas at risk from key infrastructure developments

• Phase 1 developed as part of the SEI Strategic Environmental Framework for the Greater Mekong Sub-region:

– integrates analytical, participatory, and policy-oriented processes

– combines multiple indicators of poverty and environmental stress

– developed a GIS-P application to integrate expert knowledge to identify ‘hotspots’

Mekong ‘Hotspots’

(Mathur, 2005)

Phase 2 produced:• tools for integration of expert

knowledge• participatory risk assessment

processes• illustrations of development

choices, challenges, and potential impacts

• develop an early warning monitoring and management system

Mekong ‘Hotspots’*

* Based on study undertaken by Mathur, 2005

Mapping profiles of vulnerability

Different livelihood groups are subject to different stresses

Need to understand what they stresses and impacts are in order to target development

Unemployment

GDPpc

Maize Consumption

Maize Production

HIV

Infant Mortality

Roads

Health FacilitiesVillage A

Village B

Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1HH Size

Male laborers

Total Income

Total Expenditure

Crops sales price in bad year

Food Aid

Grazing land

Crop land

Mid Altitude

Road Access

Livestock holdings

Types of dairy

Low income crop (V High)

Middle income crop (High)

Crop/dairy (Mod)

Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)

High income dairy (Mod)

Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia

Multi-agent approach

• Represent actors as software agents• Multi-level vulnerability• Emergence from interactions

Agent-based modelling

Agent: self-contained programme that can

control its own actions, based on it perceptions of its operating environment

ABM enables construction of models using a bottom-up approach new forms of vulnerability evolve as a

result of the local micro-level interactions between agents

Enables evaluation of response to multiple stressors

Example: small-holder farmers in a communal garden in Mangondi village, Limpopo Province

ABM of farmers’ use of seasonal forecasts Assessed under different conditions for different types of agents

Based on empirical fieldwork

Enables experimentation Variations in type of information Explore which strategies reduce vulnerability

(Bharwani et al, 2005)

(Bharwani et al, 2005)

(Bharwani et al, 2005)

Municipal validation process

In/Out migrationHousehold income

Food securityEducation

HH income Current situationWithout new miningWith new miningPoorR1,000R2,000R3,000professionalR10,000R10,000R15,000RichR20,000 - 45,000R20,000 - 45,000R50,000 – R80,000

HH monthly income

Current situation

Without new mining (+ 20 yrs)

With new mining (+ 20 yrs)

Poor R1,000 R2,000 R3,000

Professional R10,000 R10,000 R15,000

Rich R20,000 - 45,000

R20,000 - 45,000

R50,000 - 80,000

Scenarios

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ8leCy7Qvc Resilience: How is scenario planning useful?Garry Peterson

Why scenarios? The profit Jeremiah

His prophecies of extreme warning went largely unheeded by the people of Israel

Utopia Visualisation of desirable

futures

http://www.flickr.com/photos/aeon/2776979282/

The role of scenarios

The limits of prediction Complex socio-environmental processes Surprise and the kinks of history

The nature of scenarios Vision of a future time

Sufficiently beyond the present to not be inherently predictable

Internally consistent Plausible relationships between elements, multiple

attributes Semi-quantitative

Associated with indicators or supported by formal models

Policy-relevant not policy-prescriptive

Definition

Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.327.aspx.pdf )

Scenario methodologies

Visions and back-castingModel simulation and probabilityWorst caseStakeholder-led/interactiveRole playing, gaming

Scenario examples

Venetian visions (Ulysses)Climate change

IPCC Long term mitigation scenarios

(DEAT)South African food security

scenarios

SCENARIOS FOR VENICE, 2050

CURRENT DRIVING FORCES VISIONS

Scenarios Narratives

DEMOGRAPHIC

ECONOMIC

TRANSPORTATION

CULTURAL

IDENTIFICATIONBREAKING POINTS

GOVERNANCE

(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)

VISIONS OF VENICE, 2050

Marco Polo tells Kublai Kan…

Tonight I’ll tell you about 4 cities

(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)

Visions of Venice 2050

Living conditions have deteriorated…Air and water pollution significantly affect human and ecosystem health Traditional activities close down Building Decay

A ‘new Venice’ in the mainland is created to preserve the cultural heritage

Tourism has trickled to a small fraction

Emigration increases

Gotham City(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)

Visions of Venice 2050

Venezia Inc.

Venice became a cultural park and a museum city: one of the 4 most important tourist destinations of the world

Floods and high tides become tourist attractions

Venice is a stage where the whole population acts in a gigantic performance

Corporations dominate economy and city life

Carnival takes place 4 times a year

(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)

Visions for Venice

Desired future state Evaluating goals Assumptions

Current path Interventions needed to reach desired

future

(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)

Climate change scenarios

Based on: Socio-economic scenarios of the

future Greenhouse gas emissions

▪ atmospheric concentrations Global climate models

IPCC: Global mean surface temperature

A2 – local economic growth, high pop growth, low technological change

A1B – High economic growth, low pop growth, efficient technology

B1 – Sustainable development, low pop growth, high economic growth(http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3.html, IPCC)

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

(http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html, IPCC)

Scenarios enable exploration of future climate impacts

There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and of ice.

Long term mitigation scenarios (LTMS)

Growth without constraint

Required by Science

Current emissions quadruple by 2050 (from 440Mt – 1600/year)

Current emissions reduced by 30 – 40% by 2050

Fuel consumption grows 5 fold Joint international efforts to reduce emissions

Energy production remains mainly coal with more nuclear

New technologies taken up in SA at earlier and larger scale (including hydrogen-based transport and increased awareness of use)

(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)

(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)

94

Key steps by Strategic Option

Start Now Scale UpUse the Market

Reach for the Goal

- New technology

- Identify resources

- People-oriented measures

- Transition to low carbon economy

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

150

300

-R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

0

150

300

R 52

Renewables

0

150

300

R 18

Nuclear

0

150

300

-R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

150

300

R 20

Nuclear, extended

Renewables, extended

0

150

300

R 92

0

150

300

R 54

Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

0

150

300

R 607

Electric vehicles in GWC grid

0

150

300

450

600

R 42

Escalating CO2 tax

0

150

300

R 125

Subsidy for renewables

0

150

300

R 697

Biofuel subsidy

0

150

300

-R 208

SWH subsidy

(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)

ACHIEVING FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: Characteristics, Stressors & Recommendations to 2019

A. Misselhorn, S. Drimie, C. Schwabe

M. O’Donovan, M. Faber, S.Hendriks, J. Kirsten, P. Kuzwayo,

P. Laubscher, S. Lemke, E. Maunder, R. Swart, R. Verduijn,

C. Walsch, A. Whiteford, G. Ziervogel

Food Availability, Access, Stability, Utilization

> 40% of people in South Africa are food insecure

50% of people are poor

Affordability of food main problem in SA – food

prices

Chronic malnutrition – nearly 20% of children 1-

3yrs

HIV/AIDS - nearly 19% of population

The ‘face’ of food insecurity

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

Economic growth

Social Security: high dependence on social transfers

Infrastructure and serviceso Critical for economic growth and to improve

livelihood capabilities

Factors promoting food security

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

Extreme inequality and poverty persist: unequal food access

Poor human capital significant feature of food insecurity (HIV)

Major food security stressors

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES

Increases livelihood options Buffer against absolute

poverty or hunger for poor Supplements incomes Dietary diversity options

MULTIPLE CONSTRAINT

HIV/AIDS Human capacity Credit access Land access Access to agricultural inputs Poor extension & support

What is agriculture’s role?

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

1. Integrated POVERTY REDUCTION strategy:a) Pro-poor economic growth

b) Comprehensive social protection

2. Encourage AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT and allied non-farm enterprises to promote the livelihoods of those on the periphery of the formal economy

3. Alter and strengthen INSTITUTIONAL arrangements of the IFSS

4. Establish a well coordinated and well managed food security MONITORING, EVALUATION and INFORMATION system

Recommendations for achieving FS by 2019

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

BETTER

INSTITUTIONAL & POLICY

SCENARIOS OF..

2007 2019

Reduced livelihoods capabilities and choices

Improved livelihoods capabilities and choices

THE LOCAL FOOD SECURITY ‘SYSTEM’

CROSS CUTTING STRESSORS

CROSS CUTTING POTENTIALITIES

WORSE

“Business as usual”

FO

OD

SE

CU

RIT

Y

Strengthening IFSS

(Misselhorn et al, 2006)

Review

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Review

(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)

Challenges in Vulnerability Assessment

• Plethora of local studies of vulnerability– key lessons on the reduction of vulnerability– link with macro-scale analyses (hotspots -

livelihood analysis)

• Scale linkages– between local manifestations of vulnerability and

risk construction at more macro scales (trade relations, basin-wide environmental change, national policy)

• Complexity associated with consideration of interaction between multiple risks– economic shocks, socio-economic change,

environmental risks

Buzz group

Scenarios Indicators and mappingParticipatory livelihood methods

Between the 2(3) of you, each choose 1 method – describe to the other the strengths and weaknesses of your chosen approach

References

Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R, Tadross, M.A.  2008. Farming on the Edge' in arid western South Africa:  adapting to climate change in marginal environments.  Geography. 93. 98-107.

Bharwani, S., Bithell, M., Downing, T.E., New, M., Washington, R and Ziervogel, G. 2005. Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 

Bohle, H. G., Downing, T. E. and Watts, M. J. 1994.Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environmental Change, 4(1): 37-48

Chopra, K., Leemans, R., Kumar, P., and Simons, H. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Policy responses, Volume 3. Findings of the Responses of Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Washington, Covelo, London: Island Press. Can be accessed at http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.327.aspx.pdf)

Downing and Ziervogel, 2004. Toolkit for Vulnerability and Adaptation Training. Stockholm Environment Institute.

Funtowicz, S.O. and Pereira, A. G. 1999. Visions report: Venice 2050. Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller H.L. (Eds), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.  (accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html)

Mathur, V. 2005. High Risk Regions: Poverty and Vulnerability Briefing Note, SEI www.vulnerabilitynet.org

References continued

Miller, F. Downing, T. , Ziervogel,F. , Mathur, V. and Lindskog, E.2005. Vulnerability Assessment: an overview of approaches and methods. WTO and Environmental Protection Session on Sustainability Impact Assessment and National Impacts.Sept 2005

Misselhorn et al, 2006. Achieving Food Security in South Africa: Characteristics, Stressors & Recommendations to 2019. Report for the South African Government.

Myers, N., R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. Mittermeier, G. A. B. da Fonseca, and J. Kent. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853-858

Pereira, A.G. 2002. Venice and Visions. Presentation at Trieste AIACC workshop

Rennie, J. and N. Singh. 1996. Participatory research for sustainable livelihoods: a guidebook for field projects. Ottawa: IISD.

Ziervogel, G. 2004. 'Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho', The Geographical Journal. 170.1. 6-21.

Oxford English Dictionary (www.oed.com)

All web links were checked in November 2011

Acknowledgements: Some slide material from Tom E. Downing