egu2012-12951 updating of states in operational hydrological models oddbjørn bruland (statkraft...
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EGU2012-12951
Updating of states in operational hydrological models
Oddbjørn Bruland (Statkraft Energy)
S. Kolberg, K. Engeland, L. Tøfte (SINTEF) A. S. Gragne and K. Alfredsen (Norwegian University of Technology and Science) G. Liston (University of Colorado)
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Statkraft….
side 2
EGU 2012
… a European leader in renewable energy
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Hydropower and Hydrology
How important is hydrology to a hydropower producer?
side 3
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Importance….
NO1
64 HBV-models within the NO1 area
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Precipitation data
98 Precipitation gaugeswithin the NO1 area- provide input to the HBV-models
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Precipitation at Vågsli; summer 2008
• 130% of normal precipitation
• is input to 18 HBV-models
• Surrounding gauges showed 80-90% of normal
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
01.09
.07
21.10
.07
10.12
.07
29.01
.08
19.03
.08
08.05
.08
27.06
.08
16.08
.08
En
erg
y (G
Wh
)
Snow Accumulation
Normal 1931-2006
Normal 1980-2000
14000 GWh
Snow surveys
Snow storage NO1Week 36/2007 – 16/2008 (as simulated by HBV models)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
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3000 GWh
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How did we act?
Forecast:
Very high risk of flooding
0 %
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 %
Byrt
e
Lio
Haukeli
Langese
Bjo
rdals
vatn
Mårv
atn
Kalh
ovd
Mår
Stå
vatn
Kje
lavatn
Fø
rsvatn
Bitdals
vatn
Songa
Vin
je
Tokke
Bandak
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f fl
oo
din
g
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How did we act?
Forecast:
Very high risk of flooding
Price forecasts indicated price=0
0 %
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 %
Byrt
e
Lio
Haukeli
Langese
Bjo
rdals
vatn
Mårv
atn
Kalh
ovd
Mår
Stå
vatn
Kje
lavatn
Fø
rsvatn
Bitdals
vatn
Songa
Vin
je
Tokke
Bandak
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f fl
oo
din
g
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week no. /2008
EU
R/M
Wh
Mean 0% 10% 25% 75% 90% 100%
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How did we act?
Forecast:
Very high risk of flooding
Price forecasts indicated price=0
=> High production at low prices to reduce risk of flooding
0 %
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 %
Byrt
e
Lio
Haukeli
Langese
Bjo
rdals
vatn
Mårv
atn
Kalh
ovd
Mår
Stå
vatn
Kje
lavatn
Fø
rsvatn
Bitdals
vatn
Songa
Vin
je
Tokke
Bandak
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f fl
oo
din
g
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week no. /2008
EU
R/M
Wh
Mean 0% 10% 25% 75% 90% 100%
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-120,0
-100,0
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
To
kke
Sim
a
Sira
Kvin
a
Ulla
Fø
rre
Må
r
Bjø
lvo
Le
ird
øla
Mil
l N
ok
Summary – economical
Spill from reservoir
Estimated loss of income: ≈ 270 mill NOK (i.e. 45 mUSD or 30 mEUR)
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… in Statkraft alone..
side 12
Observations and Met ForecastsEstablished models for hydrological state and forecasting
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Hydropower and Hydrology
How do the Hydropower companies apply hydrological information?
For short term production planningOptimizing use of water at the horizon of 5 to 10 daysDaily updating and replanning
side 13
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How do the Hydropower companies apply hydrological information?
For short term production planningOptimizing use of water at the horizon of 5 to 10 daysDaily updating and replanning
For Long term planning of water disposalOptimizing the use of water at a seasonal horizonWeekly updating and replanning
Hydropower and Hydrology
side 14
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Short vs Long Term planning
Short termProfile and timing is more important than volume
side 15
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Short vs Long Term planning
Long termVolume is more important than profile and timing
side 16
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Short vs Long Term planning
Short termProfile and timing is more important than volume
Long termVolume is more important than profile and timing
Different Updating approach
side 17
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Updating for Short term forecast
Timing, level and tendency in focusShort time storages must be right
side 18
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Updating for Long term forecast
Volume and duration in focusSnowstorage is important, relative to normalClimate adjusted climatology
side 24
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How do we approach these issues
The project was established in 2009 as a cooperation between all larger hydropower producers in Norway, SINTEF, NTNU, Powel and Liston and the Norwegian Research Council.
With the goal to develop, improve and implement model updating methods and techniques in operational models
side 27side 27 Fordelt hydrologiskmodell
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side 28
Project Outline
Developing and implementing updating methods based on available sources of information
Runoff, snow cover, snow measurements
Combined withObservation uncertaintyModel uncertaintyAnd a combination of these
”An open source distributed
model system”
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What is done…
Using snow distribution model combined with snowobservations – Liston
Using Bayesian statistics weighing model state against satelite observation - Sintef
Using particle filtering to benefit from recent information – Sintef
Using errordetection to detect and explain and correct the model in spesific situations - NTNU
side 29
EGU 2012
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Snow storage updating 1
Liston’s SnowTran3D snow distribution model is implemented in the model system
Using information from snowcourses to update snowdistribution in simulated snowdistribution from Listons model
side 30
Data averaged over the snow
observation mask.
Precipitation correction factor ~
0.75.
614 mm SWE on 21 April 2008
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Snow storage updating 2
Based on modeled snowdistribution, an predefined (apriori) snowdepletion curve, modelled snow melt progress and snow cover information from satelite images
Methodology based on Bayesian statistics by Sjur Kolberg, SINTEF, has shown promising results and is a candidate for implementation in the model system.
side 31
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0 200 400
0 0.5 1 1.50 250 500
E[m]
SD[m]
E[cv]
SD[cv]
E[y0]
SD[y0]
E[λ]
SD[λ]
1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0 200 400 600 800 1000
m,cv,y0,λ]E [
Prior
Posterior
0 0.2 0.4
Snow storage updating 2
Bayesian updating of the Snow Depletion Curve
(Sjur Kolberg, 2010)
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More images improves the estimate of (m, cv, y0, {λ(t)})
ie uncertainty decreases as snowcover depletes
Calibration based on previous years also improves estimates
R2 from 0.63 - 0.68 (average for 22 catchments using same parametersets)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 400 800 1200
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 400 800 1200
Snow storage updating 2
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y = 0.69x + 184.50
R2 = 0.82
0
500
1000
1500
0 500 1000 1500Obs
Sim
y = 1.04x + 19.21
R2 = 0.92
0
500
1000
1500
0 500 1000 1500Obs
Sim
More images improves the estimate of (m, cv, y0, {λ(t)})
ie uncertainty decreases as snowcover depletes
Calibration based on previous years also improves estimates
R2 from 0.63 - 0.68 (average for 22 catchments using same parametersets)
Snow storage updating 2
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Snow storage updating 3
Early snowfalls are sensitive to threshold temperatures for snow – rain, and melt – freeze.
Wrong values gives simulated ≠ observed twice as both the accumulation and timing of melting get wrong
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Snow storage updating 3
Develop methodology for classification of hydrographs error
Develope methodology for model updating based on these events.
Defined as a main subject in PhD
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Figure 2: Definition of types of error between measured (—) and simulated (---) hydrographs [Source: adopted from Serban and Askew (1991)]
(a) amplitude errors (b) phase errors (c) shape errors
Description of simulation errors
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Algorithm for categorization of errors
Error type Subclass Condition
Amplitude (A)
A-p precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T<<0Oc or T>>0Oc
A-t precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T≠0Oc
A-pt precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T≈0Oc
A-m m≠1; q≈0
Phase (P)
P-p precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T<<0Oc or T>>0Oc
P-t precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T≠0Oc
P-pt precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T≈0Oc
P-m m≈1; q≠0
Shape
Observed data (O) O No explanation
Combination (AP)
AP-p precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T≠0Oc
AP-t precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T<<0Oc or T>>0Oc
AP-pt precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T≈0Oc
Qsim=m*Qobs+q
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• Data: hourly simulation of Votna hydropower plant; hydrologic year 1999.• Mismatches totally compounded to 195 local errors; 51 significant.
Error groups identified (overestimation, exact and underestimated).
Preliminary results
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Error type Subclass Number Condition
Amplitude (A)
A-p 5 precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T<<0Oc or T>>0OcA-t 10 precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T≠0OcA-pt 1 precipitation; m≠1; q≈0; T≈0OcA-m - m≠1; q≈0
Phase (P)
P-p - precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T<<0Oc or T>>0OcP-t 2 precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T≠0OcP-pt - precipitation; m≈1; q≠0; T≈0OcP-m - m≈1; q≠0
Shape Observed data (O) 0 10 No explanation
Combination (AP)AP-p - precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T≠0OcAP-t - precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T<<0Oc or T>>0Oc
AP-pt 23 precipitation; m≠1; q≠0; T≈0Oc
Preliminary results
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Parameter uncertainty
Parameter uncertainty used in model updating approaches
Autocalibration gives a huge number of parameter sets that objectively are equally good (R2 and waterbalance)But behave significantly different for the same event
For forecasting purpose the model best adapted to the actual situation is assumed to give the best forecast
DYNIA and DREAM are calibration routines relevant for this purpose
side 43
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DYNIA
Dynamic Identifiability Analysis (Wagener et. al. 2003)
Applied to a catchment in soutwest norwayTX (snow/rain threshold)
– high sensitivity except from July-Oct, two preferred value ranges
K0 , K1 and K2 had all two preferred value ranges
side 45
Saurdal
Stølsdal
Lauvastøl
OsaliSaurdal
Stølsdal
Lauvastøl
Osali
k0
k1
k2
Q=f(k0,k1,k2,h)
k0
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Osali
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DREAM
Dream (Vrugt et al, 2008) is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimizing algorithm that suits the purpose of detecting the model sensitivity to each parameters value-range
Gives parameters uncertainty/influenceThus also which parameters to test in an updating sequence
Gives apriori distribution of parameters for a calibrated region
Ensemble of models used for weighted updating
side 47
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DREAM
side 48
f ieldcapD
ensi
ty
100 200 300
0.00
00.
002
0.00
4
BETA
Den
sity
1.0 2.0 3.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
tvsum
Den
sity
150 300 450
0.00
000.
0015
0.00
30
TX
Den
sity
-2.5 -1.0 0.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
Rtreshold
Den
sity
0 10 30 50
0.00
0.02
0.04
FastDecayRate
Den
sity
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.00
0.10
k0
Den
sity
0.002 0.006 0.010
050
100
150
k1
Den
sity
0.02 0.06 0.10
05
1015
k2
Den
sity
0.2 0.4 0.6
02
46
Windscale
Den
sity
1 2 3 4 5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Slow DecayRate
Den
sity
10 14 18
0.00
0.04
0.08
prercD
ensi
ty
0.20 0.30 0.40
01
23
45
6
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From Dream to ParticleFiltering
Dream gives a ensemble of models with equal likelihood
But also heavily autocorrolated (results)And thus a challange to extract significant information
A likelihood function was used to extract those giving significant information and thus reduce the number of observations.
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Likelihood function
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Likelihood function
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Particle Filtering
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ParticlesFilter(Runoff, windowsize, weigth)
Re-weigthed particles
Apriori for parameters
f ieldcap
Density
100 200 300
0.0
00
0.0
02
0.0
04
BETA
Density
1.0 2.0 3.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
tvsum
Density
150 300 450
0.0
000
0.0
015
0.0
030
TX
Density
-2.5 -1.0 0.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
Rtreshold
Density
0 10 30 50
0.0
00.0
20.0
4
FastDecayRate
Density
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.0
00.1
0
k0
Density
0.002 0.006 0.010
050
100
150
k1
Density
0.02 0.06 0.10
05
10
15
k2
Density
0.2 0.4 0.6
02
46
Windscale
Density
1 2 3 4 5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Slow DecayRate
Density
10 14 18
0.0
00.0
40.0
8
prerc
Density
0.20 0.30 0.40
01
23
45
6
Uncertain input(P,T)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
02
46
8
Dag
Q(m
3/s
)
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Particle Filtering
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Osali original
Date
Str
ea
mflo
w(m
3/s
)
2007.0 2007.2 2007.4 2007.6 2007.8 2008.0
05
10
15
20
Filtered runoff – 95% confidence interval
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Particle Filtering
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Resultats – filtering on snow
Osali original
Date
Sw
e (
mm
)
2007.0 2007.2 2007.4 2007.6 2007.8 2008.0
05
00
10
00
15
00
Osali resampled
Date
Sw
e (
mm
)
2007.0 2007.2 2007.4 2007.6 2007.8 2008.0
05
00
10
00
15
00
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Particle Filtering
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0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Lauvastøl
Reff
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Osali
Reff
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
SaurdalRe
ff
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Stølsdal
Reff
0.48
0.5
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
Lauvastøl
CRPS
Beste partikkel
Aprio fordeling
Filtrert
Filtrert + usikker temp
Filtrert + usikker temp. og nedb.
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Further Work
Improve local optimization by allowing parameters to vary over the domain
And still ensure consistent behaviorDevelop methodology to find and use the criteria for the variability
A new response routine is developed/tested in order to both simplify calibrationto reduce model complexityto get more significant correlation parameters/topographyimprove updating
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Contact info
SINTEFSjur Kolberg : [email protected]ørn Engeland: [email protected] Tøfte: [email protected]
NTNUAshenafi Seifu Gragne: [email protected]
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