eionet [email protected] clean air for europe programme the thematic strategy on air...
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EIONET 2005 [email protected]
Clean Air for Europe programmeThe Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe
EIONET WorkshopVilnius, 17 to 18 October 2005
Andrej Kobe, Clean Air and Transport UnitAndrej Kobe, Clean Air and Transport UnitDG Environment, European CommissionDG Environment, European Commission
EIONET 2005 [email protected]
Thematic Strategy is a Thematic Strategy is a response toresponse to
66thth EAP (2002): Objectives for Air Pollution EAP (2002): Objectives for Air Pollution
• ‘‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significantsignificant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP)(Art 7.1. of 6th EAP)
Towards a Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Towards a Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (2001)(2001)
• Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies, exploit synergies. policies, exploit synergies.
• Cost-effectiveness to reach environment and health Cost-effectiveness to reach environment and health objectivesobjectives
• Knowledge-based approachKnowledge-based approach
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Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework
RA
INS
PRIMES(Partial
Equilibrium on Energy Market)Activity in
Agriculture and other sectors
GDP, Demographic assumptions
Activity
Emission Factors
Emissions
Air Quality, regional and
urban background
Impact
Target Setting
Policy Options
Cost-Benefits Analysis
GEM E-3(General
Equilibrium Model)
EnergyScenarios
EMEP(Source-response
relationships)
Macro-economic &
Competitiveness Impact
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What did WHO « Systematic What did WHO « Systematic review » advice?review » advice?
Response to CAFE questions, Response to CAFE questions, inter aliainter alia Main health effects of air pollution ranging from Main health effects of air pollution ranging from
mild effects to deathmild effects to death Vulnerable groups have higher riskVulnerable groups have higher risk Risks also at low levels of PM and ozoneRisks also at low levels of PM and ozone The EU limit values do not provide complete The EU limit values do not provide complete
health protectionhealth protection PM2.5 is giving the most serious health effects, PM2.5 is giving the most serious health effects,
but also the “coarse fraction” is relevant but also the “coarse fraction” is relevant Long term PM exposure is the main concernLong term PM exposure is the main concern Ozone give strong health effects, morbidity and Ozone give strong health effects, morbidity and
mortalitymortality The AQ standard for nitrogen dioxide should be The AQ standard for nitrogen dioxide should be
keptkept
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Fine particlesFine particles
Even if situation Even if situation improves by 2020:improves by 2020:2.5 million life years 2.5 million life years or or 272,000 premature 272,000 premature deathsdeathsif nothing is done. if nothing is done.
Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology
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PM dominates Health PM dominates Health effects effects
PMPM Annual 2.5 million years of life
lost or 250000 deaths + 500 infant deaths
60000 (serious) hospital admissions, 23 million respiratory medication use days, and 200 million restricted activity days
Ozone Ozone Annual impacts EU 25 ~ 20 000
deaths brought forward in year 2000
20 millions respiratory medication use days
Value of health damage in 2020 (€ Millions)
PM Mortality 129,495 - 548,190
PM Morbidity 54,072
Acute mortality from ozone
1,085- 2,435
Morbidity from ozone
4,197
Total Health damage
188,848 - 608,893
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PM: Cost-effectiveness of the PM: Cost-effectiveness of the target setting approaches target setting approaches (including CITY DELTA)(including CITY DELTA)
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
16,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Cumulative years of life gained (million years)
"Capping"
Gap closure
EU wide objective
billi
ons
of e
uros
[137] [97]
[Cumulative life years lost (million years)]
[107][117][127]
STOP
MTFR
[96]
41
Current legislation
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Final set of policy optionsFinal set of policy optionsJune 2005June 2005
Ambition level
2000 Baseline 2020
ScenarioA
ScenarioB
ScenarioC
MTFR
EU-wide cumulative years of life years lost (YOLL, million)
203 137 (0%)
110 (65%)
104 (80%)
101 (87%)
96 (100%)
Acidification (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)
120 30(0%)
15(55%)
11(75%)
10(85%)
2(100%)
Eutrophication (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)
422 266(0%)
173(55%)
138(75%)
120(85%)
87(100%)
Ozone (gap closure on SOMO35) cases of deaths brought forward
21,400 20,800(0%)
19,200(60%)
18,600(80%)
18,300(90%)
17,759 (100%)
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter
20002000
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter
StrategyStrategy
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Improvement of health & environment Improvement of health & environment indicators following the Strategy indicators following the Strategy (improvement relative to 2000)(improvement relative to 2000)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Health (PM2.5)
Health (ozone)
Forest acidification
Ecosystem acidification
Freshwater acidification
Eutrophication
Forest damage (ozone)
Current legislation
Further improvement
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Measures following the Measures following the StrategyStrategy
Euro 5 for cars and vansEuro 5 for cars and vans Euro 6 for Heavy Duty EnginesEuro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the
StrategyStrategy Small scale combustionSmall scale combustion
Review of IPPC directive for larger sources Energy using Products directive for small sources
Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community)Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community) Agriculture (NHAgriculture (NH33))
N content of feedstuffs Review of IPPC directive for intensive agriculture
Revise Air quality legislationRevise Air quality legislation
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Air Quality Legislation (1) Air Quality Legislation (1) COM (2005) 447 finalCOM (2005) 447 final
Better RegulationBetter Regulation Merge AQ Framework Directive, EoI Decision, and 1st-
3rd Daughter directives Tidy up inconsistencies More flexibility for Member States Improved, streamlined reporting
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Air Quality Legislation (2)Air Quality Legislation (2)
Maintaining the present standards, PM10, O3, etcMaintaining the present standards, PM10, O3, etc Ambient AQS apply everywhere in the MSAmbient AQS apply everywhere in the MS Proposals forProposals for
Reduction average concentration for PM2.5.- 20 % 2010 - 2020
« Concentration cap » for PM2.5 from 2010 No further action if PM 2.5 concentration is below
7ug/m3 Accounts for natural sources of pollution Flexibility - allows MS to apply a time extension in
meeting AQS up to five years if objective criteria are met Regular review of experience and science
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Air Quality Legislation (3)Air Quality Legislation (3)ReportingReporting
• EEA with its ETC plays key role : air data centreEEA with its ETC plays key role : air data centre• Common description of relevant informationCommon description of relevant information• Subset electronically uploaded to Reportnet/CDR :Subset electronically uploaded to Reportnet/CDR :
• Zones• Name, pollutant, type, delimitation
• AQ monitoring information• raw data + metadata
• AQ assessment information• Principally geo-data on concentrations throughout territory
• Bigger picture : Bigger picture : • INSPIRE, Shared Information System• Near real time exchange : better forecasting, model improvement
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CAFE and further workCAFE and further work
Follow research&other activities : Follow research&other activities : Air4EU, ESPREME, NORMAN, GMES etc.Air4EU, ESPREME, NORMAN, GMES etc.
Improved modelling, better assessment, emerging pollutants GMES: should be supported by near-real-time data availability
FP7, research infrastructuresFP7, research infrastructures Better understanding of PM : what exactly is killing us?
Service contractsService contracts Analysis and design of air pollution monitoring (IUTA)Analysis and design of air pollution monitoring (IUTA)
How is AQ monitoring made today and how should it be done to be health relevant? How is health outcome monitored and how should it be done?
Classification and representativeness of mon. stations (UBA)Classification and representativeness of mon. stations (UBA) Natural sources of air pollution (NATAIR and JRC)Natural sources of air pollution (NATAIR and JRC) Transport hot spots (ENTEC)Transport hot spots (ENTEC)
What is the population at risk close to transport infrastructure, AQ and noise
2006 : support to implementation, Impl. Provisions, tools 2006 : support to implementation, Impl. Provisions, tools (EEA)(EEA)
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Final thoughts (1)Final thoughts (1)
Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for health and environmenthealth and environment Need to act at EU level -- air pollution is transboundary
Ambitious but cost-effective proposalsAmbitious but cost-effective proposals Based on comprehensive Impact Assessment Based on sound peer-reviewed science
Better RegulationBetter Regulation Streamlining legislation: 50% reduction in paper provisions New approach to environmental policy
Flexibility Reducing average background concentration of fine particulates
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Final thoughts (2)Final thoughts (2)
ImplementationImplementation Monitoring and assessment underpin effective
abatement programmes
Future policy developmentFuture policy development Reducing important uncertainties Base data for incidence of various endpoints Improved assessment tools - Urban environment,
economy (health care costs, productivity losses) Step wise improvement of policy instruments
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/cafe/index.htmhttp://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/cafe/index.htm