eksplorasi hidrokarbon
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
1/356
Natural Gas Hydrate
Economics
Widodo W. Purwanto
Departemen Teknik KimiaUniversitas Indonesia
Natural Gas Economics 2012
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
2/356
Content
Gas hydrate reserves
Gas hydrate production technology
Ocean gas transportation (GTS)
Economic aspects
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
3/356
What is Natural Gas Hydrates?
Gas hydrates are crystallinesubstances composed of water and gasin which a solid water-latticeaccommodates gas molecules in a
cagelike structure (clathrate)
Type of gas hydrates
1. Unconventional gas reserves
2. Synthetic gas hydrate
http://www.google.co.id/imgres?imgurl=http://www.neptune.washington.edu/documents/GASHDR/hydrate_geomar_med.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.neptune.washington.edu/research/index.jsp%3Fkeywords%3DGASHDR%26title%3DGas%2520Hydrates&usg=__8vgs1xcHUSbfi2KBtIhpwW3snn4=&h=423&w=360&sz=56&hl=id&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=70iQf4LQ-GMEhM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=107&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dnatural%2Bgas%2Bhydrate%26um%3D1%26hl%3Did%26sa%3DX%26tbs%3Disch:1http://www.google.co.id/imgres?imgurl=http://www.neptune.washington.edu/documents/GASHDR/hydrate_geomar_med.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.neptune.washington.edu/research/index.jsp%3Fkeywords%3DGASHDR%26title%3DGas%2520Hydrates&usg=__8vgs1xcHUSbfi2KBtIhpwW3snn4=&h=423&w=360&sz=56&hl=id&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=70iQf4LQ-GMEhM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=107&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dnatural%2Bgas%2Bhydrate%26um%3D1%26hl%3Did%26sa%3DX%26tbs%3Disch:1 -
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
4/356
Hydrate Structures
Sources: U.S. Geological Survey and Texas A&M University
Concentrates gas with a ratio of ~ 1:160
One cubic foot of gas hydratecontains
160 cubic feet of gas at standard
temperature and pressure
Type I Type II Type H
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
5/356
Gas Hydrates Potential
where?
860 tcf?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
6/356
The gas hydrate resouce
pyramid
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
7/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
8/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
9/356
Gas Hydrates Potential
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
10/356
Gas Hydrates Potential
Global estimates place the gas volume(primarily methane) resident in oceanic naturalgas hydrate deposits in the range of 30,000 to49,100,000 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), and incontinental natural gas hydrate deposits in therange of 5,000 to 12,000,000 Tcf.
Comparatively, current worldwide natural gasresources are about 13,000 Tcf and natural
gas reserves are about 5,000 Tcf.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
11/356
Gas hydrate stability
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
12/356
Migration of gas along faults and
hydrate formation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
13/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
14/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
15/356
Technology of NGH Recovery from
Seafloor Reserves
(a) presence of gases (e.g.,
methane, ethane,
propane) shifts the
boundary curve to the
right
(b) presence of chemical
inhibitors (e.g., methanol)
shifts the boundary curve
to the left.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
16/356
Ruppel, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
17/356
P-T equilibrium curve for water-
methane system
Makogon, 2010
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
18/356
Gas Hydrates Production Technology
(a) thermal injection
(b) depressurization
(c) inhibitor injection.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
19/356
Ruppel, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
20/356
Technology of NGH Recovery from
Seafloor Reserves
(a) Thermal injection:
The use of a heat source of energy toraise the reservoir T, thus breaking thehydrogen bonds in the hydrate to releasethe gas
Hot water, steam and brine are commonly
used
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
21/356
Technology of NGH Recovery from
Seafloor Reserves
(b) Depressurization:
When the reservoirs P is reduced,
hydrate dissociates by absorbing energy
from the surrounding reservoirs Tdecreases.
Hydrate will continue to dissociate until
sufficient gas evolves to achieve the
equilibrium P. at the lower T.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
22/356
Technology of NGH Recovery from
Seafloor Reserves
(c) Inhibitor injection
By injecting chemicals to the sub-sea
hydrates, dissociation will occur.
The chemicals decrease the stability of thehydrate by changing the equilibrium T or P.
Alcohols (methanol) and glycols are
commonly used.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
23/356
Technology of NGH Recovery from
Seafloor Reserves
Disadvantages
Thermal stimulation
requires much materials
poses environmental effects
Depressurisation
forms ice and/or reforms gas hydrate due to the
endothermic gas hydrate dissociation
Inhibitor injection
poses environmental effects.
causes corrosion on pipelines if air dissolves in theinhibitor
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
24/356
Effect of depressurization, temperature
stimulation and inhibitors on the hydrate
stability curve
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
25/356
CO2 injection
The figure illustrates themolecular mining method bymeans of CO2 injection in orderto extract CH4 from gas hydratereservoirs. The concept iscomposed of three steps as
follows; 1) injection of hot seawater into the hydrate layer todissociate the hydrates, 2)produce gas from the hydrate, 3)inject CO2 to form carbon dioxidehydrate with residual water tohold the sea bed stable
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
26/356
Why the interest in Gas Hydrates?
Safety:Hydrates plug flowlines
Hydrates can be geohazards
Resource:Methane Hydrates are a source of natural gas
Environmental:
Sensitive Communities use hydrates as food
Methane Hydrates can contribute to global warming
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
27/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
28/356
Heat From BuriedPipelines CauseHydrate Dissociation
Hydrates DissociationAffects Foundation of
Surface Facilities?
Heat From ProductionWells Causes HydrateDissociation
Hydrates Form On
Exterior of SubseaEquipment
Potential Impact of Natural Gas Hydrates
in the Seafloor Sediments On Deepwater
Production Facilities
99-00075
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
29/356
Ocean NGH transportation concept
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
30/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
31/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
32/356
Physical PropertyData for NGH and LNG
Natural Gas
Hydrate (NGH)
Liquefied Natural Gas
(LNG)
Modes of
Transport and
Storage
Solid Liquid
Temperature to be
maintained
-200C -1620C
Gravity 0.85 - 0.95 0.42 - 0.47
Contents in 1 m3
Natural Gas:
170Nm3
Water: 0.8 m3Natural Gas: 600 Nm
3
NGH and LNG Comparison
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
33/356
Properties of Gas Storage Media
much gas can be stored at milder conditions
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
34/356
Dissociation of the hydrates
Hydrate dissociates quickly under standard temperature andpressure. The dissociation of the hydrates containing methanemolecules occurs satisfying the following reaction equation(Sloan et al, 2003):
CH4.6H2O (solid) CH4 (gas) + 6 H2O (liquid)
The value of H dissociation is 10 20 kcal/mol of gasdissociated. Thus, the dissociation requires an external energysource to propagate along the right hand side. It is necessarytherefore to cool down its temperature to -80oC to stop itsdissociation completely.
It is confirmed, however, that under a certain condition thehydrate does but very slowly dissociate even if it is kept underthe a standard condition (non-equilibrium area) which would,otherwise, bring about a complete dissociation. Thisphenomenon is called "self-preservation effect" -20oC
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
35/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
36/356
Methane hydrate pellets under
condition of self-preservation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
37/356
NGH pellet production
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
38/356
NGH carriers
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
39/356
Flow sheet NGH production
Javanmardi et al, 2005
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
40/356
Javanmardi et al, 2005
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
41/356
Cost Estimation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
42/356
Capex Distance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
43/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
44/356
CNG Marine Economics
Departemen Teknik KimiaUniversitas Indonesia
Widodo W. Purwanto
Natural Gas Economics 2012
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
45/356
Outline
Overview of CNG MarineTechnology
Simple Economic Analysis ofCNG Marine
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
46/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
47/356
CNG ships add value for producers
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
48/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
49/356
Overview of CNG Marine
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
50/356
CNG Process
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
51/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
52/356
CNG marine transport chain
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
53/356
CNG Specification
Component Limit
Methane min. 88%
Ethane max. 6%
C3+ max. 3%
Oxygen max. 1%
CO2+N2 range 1.5-4.5% (CO2 maks 3%)
Sulphur max. 16 ppm (H2S mak 4 ppm)
Water max. 65-112 mg/m3 (4-7 lb/MMscf)
Wobbe Index 46-52 MJ/m
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
54/356
Gas Capacity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
55/356
CNG Logistic parameters
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
56/356
Logistic Equations
unloadingtravelloadingroundtrip tttht *2)()/(
)(tan)(
hkmTugspeed
kmceDishttravel
hxMMscfdgasRate
MMscfVht
l
eb
loading 24)(_
)()(
arg )()( htht unloadingloading
)(
)(arg_
ht
hteBNumber
loading
roundtrip
eBNumberht
htTugNumber
roundtrip
travel arg_)(
)(*2_
-Tug speed : 12 knot- GTM Volume : 134 MMscf- Load Factor : 100 %
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
57/356
Hub-and-Spoke & Milk-Run
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
58/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
59/356
CNG M i T h l
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
60/356
CNG Marine TechnologyProvider
COSELLE (USA)
TransCANADA (Canada )VOTRANS (USA)
TransOCEAN (Canada)
KNUTSEN (Norwegia)
http://www.transcanada.com/index.htmlhttp://www.transcanada.com/index.htmlhttp://www.knutsenoas.com/http://www.knutsenoas.com/ -
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
61/356
Coselle (USA)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
62/356
Coselle (USA)
C ll St k d i
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
63/356
Coselle Stack designstacking & support
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
64/356
Cosselle arrangement in barge
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
65/356
Cosselle arrangement in barge
C ll CNG T & B
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
66/356
Coselle CNG Tug & Bargesystem
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
67/356
Votrans-Enersea (USA)
Votrans pressure vessel
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
68/356
Votrans pressure vessel
specification
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
69/356
Votrans pressure vessel
P i d t b fi ti
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
70/356
Pressurized tube configurationsin Votrans CNG ship
Press ri ed t be config rations
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
71/356
Pressurized tube configurationsin Votrans CNG ship
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
72/356
TransCanada
Specification
Storage Capacity Barge mounted 25+ mmscf ship up to 1 bcf
Storage System
Pressure vessel consists of a high strength steelinner liner and heads and wrapped with
external glass fiber.
Weight is 60% of equivalent steel vessel
Storage vessel size 42 to 60 inch diameter, 20, 40, 80 ft long
Gas Pressure Up to 3600 psi (1500 psi mid-scalemum)
Gas Temperature Ambient
Vessel Size Typical size 3200 dwt
http://www.transcanada.com/index.htmlhttp://www.transcanada.com/index.html -
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
73/356
Gas Transport Module (GTM)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
74/356
Demonstration GTM
CNG Ship & Barge mounted
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
75/356
CNG Ship & Barge mountedmodule
Large Articulated Tug Barge
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
76/356
Large Articulated Tug Barge
(AT/B)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
77/356
TransOcean (Canada)
Specification
Storage Capacity 150 mmcf to 1.2 bcf
Storage System
Pressure vessel consists of a high density polyethylene liner withstainless steel end bosses and wrapped with external glass
and/or carbon fiber. Weight is one third of equivalent steel
vessel
Storage vessel size
42 to 60 inch diameter, 40 to 120 ft longGas Pressure 3600 psi
Gas Temperature 5 oC
Vessel Size Panamax for 500 mmscf
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
78/356
TransOcean Module
http://www.knutsenoas.com/http://www.knutsenoas.com/ -
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
79/356
Knutsen (Norway)
http://www.knutsenoas.com/http://www.knutsenoas.com/ -
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
80/356
Knutsen Large Size
Knutsen Transportation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
81/356
Knutsen Transportationspecification
Specification Standard Size Small SizeLarge Size
No. of gas Cylinders 2672 870 3900
Volume of Gas Carried 20 MSm3 3.4 MSm3 30 MSm3
Length, o.a 276 m 182 m 325 m
Length, b.p 260 m 171.5 m 311 m
Beam (Bm) 54 m 9 m 59 m
Dm 29 m 16 m 29 m
Tdesign 13.5 m 8.5 m 15 m
Tballast abt. 11 m 7.3 m 11.6 m
DWT up to 20000 tons 3500 tons 30000 tons
Service Speed 15.5 knots 18 knots 18 knots
Pipe Data 42 in Dia.
19-38 m legth
Steel High Strength (X80)
CNG Licensors Comparison
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
82/356
CNG Licensors Comparison
Parameter
Licensors
Cossele Vortrans TransOcean TransCanada Knutsen
Ratio Capacity (cf/ft3) 263 389 111 248 267
MaterialCarbon
SteelCarbon Steel
Fiber
Reinforced
Plastic
Composite
Pressure
Vessel
Carbon Steel
MaturityPrototype
Testing
Prototype
Testing
Prototype
Testing
Prototype
Testing
Prototype
Testing
Operability
a. Loading/Unloading STL STL FPSO FPSO STL
b. Temperature (
o
C) 10 -20 5 Ambient Ambientc. Pressure (psi) 3600 1885 3600 3600 3640
Safety good good fair fair fair
CertificationABS,
DNVABS, DNV ABS ABS DNV
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
83/356
Simple Economic Analysisof CNG
Assumptions for Economic
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
84/356
Assumptions for Economic
Analysis
Capacities: 1, 0.6, and 0.4 MTPA
Rule of Thumb
Distance 2100 km ~ Donggi-West Java
Cost of capital 12%
Life service 20 years
Product cost CNG = Wellhead + (Capex + OM)Full chain
Capex O&M cost of CNG
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
85/356
Capex O&M cost of CNG(high case)
ComponentCapex
(US$)Share(%)
O&M
(US$/year)
Share (%)
Tug 50,960,000 10.7% 12,700,000 58.9%
Barge 77,400,000 16.3% 2,000,000 9.3%
GTM 277,200,000 58.3% 1,300,000 6.0%
Transporter 405,560,000 85.3% 16,000,000 74.1%
Gas Treating 30,388,205 6.4% 3,765,654 17.4%
Loading 23,011,896 4.8% 702,285 3.3%
Unloading 16,325,829 3.4% 1,112,299 5.2%
Total 475,285,930 100.0% 21,580,239 100.0%
Source:TransCanada for 0.5 mtpa, 2130 km
US$ 950/tpa, and O&M cost 43 US$/ton (US$ 0.83/mmbtu).
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
86/356
CapEx Marine
8 5 .3 %
6 .4 %
4 .8 %
3 .4 %
Transporter Gas Treating Loading Unloading
Capital Cost Breakdown
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
87/356
Capital Cost Breakdown
Economides, SPE 2008
C & O&M (l )
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
88/356
Capex & O&M (low case)
Source: Hanranhan, 2006
250 mmscfd (1.92 mtpa)and distance 750 nautical miles (~1400 km)
US$ 511-766/tpa, and O&M cost is 13 US$/ton (US$ 0.25/mmbtu).
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
89/356
Economides, SPE 2008
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
90/356
Economides, SPE 2008
C ( )
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
91/356
Capex (high case)
Capital Cost (full chain of CNG) = $ 475,360,000.00
Size = 0.5 mtpa
Duration = 20 years
Cost of Capital (i) = 12 %
Cost Recovery Factor (CRF) = 0.1339
CNG (1) CNG (2) CNG (3)
Size of CNG (mtpa) 1 0.6 0.4
Capex $ 772,224,598.26 $ 540,069,319.88 $ 406,617,087.56
Capex /mtpa $ 772,224,598.26 $ 900,115,533.14 $ 1,016,542,718.90
Capex/tpa $ 772.22 $ 900.12 $ 1,016.54
Annual Capex $ 103,400,873.71 $ 72,315,281.93 $ 54,446,028.02
Capex/mmbtu $ 2.21 $ 2.58 $ 2.91
C (l )
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
92/356
Capex (low case)
Capital Cost (full chain of CNG) = $ 1,115,000.00
Size of 1 train = 1.93 mtpa
Duration = 20 years
Cost of Capital (i) = 12 %
Cost Recovery Factor (CRF) = 0.1339
CNG (1) CNG (2) CNG (3)
Size of CNG (mtpa) 1 0.6 0.4
Capex $ 703,695,463.18 $ 492,142,222.68 $ 370,532,874.00
Capex /mtpa $ 703,695,463.18 $ 820,237,037.81 $ 926,332,185.00
Capex/tpa $ 703.70 $ 820.24 $ 926.33
Annual Capex $ 94,224,822.52 $ 65,897,843.62 $ 49,614,351.83
Capital Cost/mmbtu $ 1.81 $ 2.11 $ 2.39
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
93/356
Product cost of CNG (high case)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 mtpa 0.6 mtpa 0.4 mtpa
CNG Plant Capacity
Cost(US$/mmBtu) O&M cost
Capex
Wellhead
P d f CNG (l )
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
94/356
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
1 mtpa 0.6 mtpa 0.4 mtpaCNG Plant Capacity
Cost(US$/m
mBtu) O&M cost
Capex
Wellhead
Product cost of CNG (low case)
CNG P d t l ti
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
95/356
Product Cost per mmbtu
Natural Gas (wellhead)
CapexO&M
Cost of Product
$ 1.5 2.0
$ 1.81
2.21$ 0.25 0.83
$ 3.56 5.04
$ 1.5 2.0
$ 2.11
2.58$ 0.25 0.83$ 3.86 5.41
$ 1.5 2.0
$ 2.39
2.91$ 0.25 0.83
$ 4.14 5.74
CNG1 mtpa
CNG0.6 mtpa
CNG0.4 mtpa
CNG Product valuation
Technical Aspect comparison
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
96/356
Technical Aspect comparison
E i l A t
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
97/356
Economical Aspect
CNG : simple and inexpensive onshore
facilities
80-90% of the investment is in shipsand pressure containers
Business opportunities
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
98/356
Business opportunities
Wellhead gas2 US$/mmbtu
Potential Gas Price5 US$/mmbtu(1/2 diesel price
~ 9 US$/mmbtu)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
99/356
Business opportunities
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
100/356
Business opportunities
Xiuli Wang, 2008
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
101/356
Xiuli Wang, 2008
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
102/356
Widodo W. Purwanto, *Hanan NugrohoDepartemen Teknik Kimia
Universitas Indonesia
*Bappenas
Natural Gas Contracts(supply, transport and sales)
Lecture-3
Natural Gas Economic 2012
O tli
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
103/356
Outline
Types and key elements of
natural gas contract
LNG contracts
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
104/356
Types and key elements
of gas contract
Natural gas value chain and
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
105/356
gas contract agreement
GSA Between ?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
106/356
GS et ee
Produ
cers
Consumer
Trader
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
107/356
Natural gas EP Contract
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
108/356
Natural gas EP Contract
Conssesion contractProduction Sharing Contract
Conssesion contract
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
109/356
Conssesion contracts: Tax/royalty conssesioncontract, conventional type North america,
Argentina, Australia, part Middle east
PSC
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
110/356
PSC
Production sharing contract (PSC), morecomplexAsia, Africa, part of South america
and Middle East
Gas sales agreements
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
111/356
Gas sales agreementsThe gas sales agreement (GSA) is also known as a gas purchase
agreement (GPA) or a gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA). Theseagreements between a producing company or sales agent (seller) and a
consuming company (buyer)
Term. The term of a GSA can be as short as one day or as long as the
economic life of the field from which the gas is produced, the terms could
reach 20 or 30 years.
Quantity. Broadly speaking, there are two distinct types of volume
commitments contracts:
Depletion contracts and the more common supply contracts. Under depletion
contracts, also called output contracts, the producing company dedicates theentire production from a particular field or reserve to a buyer.
In contrast, supply contracts commit the seller to supply a fixed volume of gas to
the buyer for fixed term, typically 20 to 25 years. The seller is responsible for
sourcing the gas, either from its own reserves or from third parties.
Two major types ofvolume gas contracts
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
112/356
volume gas contractsDepletion contract
Allocation of all the reserves economically recoverablefrom a field or accumulation to the buyer
This type of contract is generally preferred by the
producer
Part of the risk is transferred to the buyer
The price will tend to be lower
The producer agree to supply an annual volume of gas
for a number of defined yearsGas supplies originates from several sources
This does not necessitate to show reserves to the buyer
This type of contract is generally preferred by the buyer
Supply contract
Gas sales aggrement (cont)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
113/356
Gas sales aggrement (cont )
Price terms. Gas must be priced at a level competitive with alternate fuels in themarketplace and provide an adequate return for all parties in the chain. Pricing may be
fixed, fixed with escalators, or floating.
Delivery obligation. The terms of delivery may be firm or flexible. Firm delivery
implies an obligation by the producing company or seller to deliver the specified
quantities over the term of the contract. If the delivery obligation is not fulfilled, the
seller may be obliged to pay damages or cover the costs of alternate fuels used by the
buyer. Flexible delivery obligates the producing company to make attempts to fulfill the
delivery obligation but does not require fulfillment of all the delivery obligations.
Take-or-pay (TOP) obligations. The basic premise of take-or-pay (TOP) is that the
buyer is obliged to pay for a percentage of the contracted quantity.
Delivery point. This is the physical location where gas is delivered to the buyer. It
could be at the gate of the power plant, the hub for a city grid, an interconnection of
two pipeline systems, the site of a compressor, international border, or the fence of anLNG plant.
Gas quality. The GSA clearly states the quality of gas, including its maximum and
minimum heating values (in Btu/MMcf units); maximum level of impurities like oxygen,
CO2, SOx, and NOx; the delivery pressure; and water vapor content..
Key provisions of contracts
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
114/356
Key provisions of contracts
Contract Duration
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
115/356
Volume capacity and tolerance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
116/356
Volume, capacity and tolerance
Volume. The first is the amount of gas, which can be sold and purchased,the total amount of gas, which can be taken over the life of the contract.
Capacity, which is represented by the minimum rate at which the seller must
offer gas and the maximum rate at which the buyer may take gas. The
capacity is usually expressed as a daily quantity.
Tolerance clauses to allow to some extent for the unforeseen. Tolerances
affect the contract volumes only partially, but may affect any penalties due
for failure to live up to the contract.
Volume, capacity and tolerance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
117/356
Annual Contract Quantity (ACQ). It represents the maximum annualquantity the supplier is obligated deliver to the buyer
The ACQ may be stated as an independent figure in the contract or
alternatively it can be sometimes expressed as the multiple of a Daily
Contract Quantity (DCQ)
ACQ = 365*DCQ.Daily Delivered Rate (DDR) expresses the rate at which the sellers
facilities must be capable of delivering gas. It is usually expressed as
a multiple of the DCQ. The DCQ is multiplied by the fraction 1/load
factor.
Volume, capacity and tolerance
Volume, capacity and tolerance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
118/356
Load factor is a very important component of the contract,because it determines buyers flexibility. Lower load factor and
therefore higher daily volume flexibility offers to the buyer the
possibility to purchase more in the period, when he desires it.
Downward Quantity Tolerances states the amount by which abuyer may fall short of its full Annual Contract Quantity (in a Take
or Pay gas sales contract) without incurring sanctions. If there is
no provision requiring the buyer to take supplementary volumes in
subsequent years to make good for the deficiency, the ACQ
becomes in effect the ACQ minus the DQT which we call AnnualMinimum Quantity (AMQ).
Volume, capacity and tolerance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
119/356
LNG Contracts
Types of LNG Sales Contracts
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
120/356
ypes o G Sa es Co t acts
FOB (Free on Board)
- delivery point at connection between ship and loading facility
CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight)
- delivery point at the buyers receiving terminal
- risk of loss passes to the buyers at loading point or an agreed pointon the trip
DES (Delivered Ex. Ship)
- delivery point at flange connecting ship to receiving
terminal
- the seller bears all costs and risks up to terminal
Shipping terms
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
121/356
pp g
Deliveries may be on Free-on-board (FOB) basis, where the buyer
takes ownership of LNG as it is loaded on ships at the export LNGfacility. The buyer is responsible for LNG delivery, either on its own
ships or ships chartered by the buyer. The contracted sales price
does not include transportation costs.
Cost-insurance-freight (CIF) basis, where the buyer takes legal
ownership of the LNG at some point during the voyage from theloading port to the receiving port. The seller is responsible for the
LNG delivery, and the contracted sales price includes insurance and
transportation costs.
Delivered ex-ship (DES) basis, where the buyer takes ownership of
the LNG at the receiving port. The seller is responsible for LNGdelivery, and the contracted sales price includes insurance and
transportation costs.
Main Terms of LNG Contracts
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
122/356
Duration
QuantitiesBuild up volume
Annual Contract Quantity (ACQ)
Downward Quantity Tolerance
Upward variation
Take-or-Pay clauses
Shipping Agreements
PriceQuality
Build up and Plateau Arrangements
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
123/356
Main Terms of LNG contracts (1)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
124/356
( )
DurationMostly long term contracts, 20 years
Trend toward medium and Short Term contracts,SPOT with deregulation
Buyers and Sellers prefer Long Term, to securefinancing of infrastructure
Build up volumeSellers prefer fast build up to recover investment
Buyers prefer slow build up to follow marketgrowth
Compromise to be found
Main Terms of LNG contracts (2)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
125/356
( )
Plateau QuantitiesACQ (Annual Contract Quantity), expressed in
energy (TBtu/year) or in number of cargoes per year
DQT (Downward Quantity Tolerance): volume
that the buyer can defer without going to Take or Payobligation. Generally 10% with a maximum on cumulated
volume. May be subject to Make Up arrangement.
Upward Variation: additional volumes required bybuyers, depending seller ability to supply.
Main Terms of LNG contracts (3)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
126/356
( )
Take or Pay clausesObligation for the buyer to pay a cargo, even if
he cannot take it for market or other reasons
Transfer the market risk to the buyer, and
secures cash flow for the seller
The Downward Quantity Tolerance is negotiated,
generally leading to a Take-or-Pay level of 90%
(DOT=10%)
Volume under Take-or-Pay called Minimum Bill
Main Terms of LNG contracts (4)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
127/356
( )
PricesBase price
Escalation formula: crude oil linkage
Frequency of calculation: quarterly or
monthly
Procedures for renegotiation, either
regular (every 5 years) or according to
change in context.
LNG Project Structure (1)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
128/356
LNG Project Structure (2)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
129/356
LNG Project Structure (3)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
130/356
LNG Project Structure (4)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
131/356
LNG Project Structure (5)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
132/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
133/356
LNG Project Structure (6)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
134/356
Bontang LNG Project Organization
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
135/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
136/356
Japanese
BuyerOffshore
Badak Train F
Project Finance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
137/356
PT Badak LNG Plant
Pertamina
Trustee
Turn key
contractors
Gov. of
Indonesia
BanksE. Kalimantan
Gas Producers
Plant use &
operation
agreements
Gas Supply
agreements
Producers
agreements
PSC
Loan
agreements
Offshore
proceeds
account, NY
Processing
agreements
Source: International Advisory & Finance
LNG Terminal - Tolling Model
Contractual Structure Diagram
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
138/356
Contractual Structure Diagram
LNG ProducerLNG Producer
END USERS LNG Receiving Terminal
Terminal Used Agreement
(TUA)
Gas Sales
Agreement
LNG Vessel Owner
Time Charter
Party Agreement
Company
Operation & Maintenance
Agreement
LNG Terminal - Merchant Model
Contractual Structure Diagram
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
139/356
Contractual Structure Diagram
LNG ProducerLNG Producer
END USERS
LNG Receiving Terminal
LNG Sale and Purchase
Agreement
Gas Sales
Agreements
LNG Vessel Owner
Time Charter
Party Agreement
Time CharterParty Agreement
Company
Operation & MaintenanceAgreement
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
140/356
Gas contract and price vision
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
141/356
Structure of Natural Gas
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
142/356
Structure of Natural Gas
Industry/Market- lecture 1
Natural Gas Economic 2012
Widodo W. PurwantoDepartemen Teknik Kimia
Outline
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
143/356
What is natural gas?
Structure of natural gas industry
What is natural gas market?
Gas trading & infrastructures
What is natural gas?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
144/356
Natural gas components
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
145/356
Natural gas problem is volume
F th t t
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
146/356
For the same energy content:
Characteristics and conversion factors
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
147/356
1 m3 of LNG = 630 m3 of gas 1 Ton of LNG = 2.22 m3 of LNG = 52 MMBtu
1,400 m3 of gas = 1.3 Ton of crude oil
49,500 Cft of gas = 9.0 bl of crude oil
1 Million Tons/year of LNG = 130 MMCFD of gas sales
= 142 MMCFD of gas at LNG plant inlet
A ship of 135,000 m3 = 60,000 Tons of LNG = 3 BCF of gas
1 TCF of natural gas eq. to 1 Million Tons of LNG for 20 years
Average Heating Values: Natural Gas: 1,000 Btu/Cft
Crude Oil: 5.8 MMBtu/Bl.
Oil and Gas Industry
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
148/356
Oil and Gas Industry
The natural gas value chain
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
149/356
Upstream Midstream Downstream
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
150/356
Natural gas transportation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
151/356
SUPPLY MARKETS
Pipeline
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Compressed natural gas (CNG)
Gas to Liquids (GTL)
Gas to Chemicals (GTC)
Gas to Wire (GTW)
Physical conversion : pipeline, CNG, LNG, GTSChemical conversion : GTL, GTC, GTW
Gas to Solid (GTS)
Structure of Natural Gas Industry
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
152/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
153/356
Key Dates in the Deregulation of
the US Natural Gas Industry
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
154/356
Development of Competition in the British Gas Market
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
155/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
156/356
LNG market structure
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
157/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
158/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
159/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
160/356
Why Regulate?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
161/356
Avoid monopolyRegulation: exclusive teritories, setting
rate/tariff etc
Who ragulates: Regulatory Commission orGov.
Regulatory process: rolemaking, rate cases,
certificate cases, service standard, complaintcases
Aim of Regulation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
162/356
Approaches to Regulation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
163/356
Policy instruments
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
164/356
Why Deregulation?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
165/356
Competitive gas market
The market maturation cycle: regulation,
deregulation, commoditization, value-
added servicesMarket dynamics
Natural gas industry-Indonesia
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
166/356
TGI, Nusantara Regas
Pertagas/Pertamina?
PGN
Small CNG companiesPertamina,
Total Conoco
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
167/356
Natural gas industry (USA)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
168/356
Natural gas industry (USA)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
169/356
Natural gas industry (UK)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
170/356
Natural gas industry (ARGENTINA)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
171/356
Natural gas industry (Thailand)
UNOCAL OthersTOTALPTTEP
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
172/356
PTT Transmission
Company
PTT Distribution
Pipeline Co.
PTT Co Ltd/Plc
(Supply & Marketing)
Transmission
Companies
Distribution
Companies
Supply & Marketing
Companies
100% shareholding
EGAT Private Power Producers
IPP / SPP
End Users
Industrial Sector
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
173/356
What is
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
174/356
Market consist of
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
175/356
The physical (cash) market: business activity,supply and demand fundamental,
transportation and physical transaction
Financial Market: Value, pricing and trading
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
176/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
177/356
IGU 2006
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
178/356
Gas production/consumption by region
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
179/356
Gas consumption per capita
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
180/356
Chart of natural gas trade
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
181/356
Major gas trade movements
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
182/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
183/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
184/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
185/356
Gas
domestic vs. export
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
186/356
Produksi 8.13 bcf/d ~ ~
Demand gas 3.38 bcf/d 9.15 bcfd 13.22 bcfd
Ekspor 4.75 bcf/d
Impor 1.02 bcfd 5.09 bcfd
2005 KEN (2025)
Domestic gas market
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
187/356
Gas Pipeline Network
Medan Block
W t N t
Block B-Duyong
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
188/356
Corridor-Singapore
Planned
Samarinda
Duri-Grissik
West Natuna
- Singapore
So. Palembang Block
Jawa Barat
Jawa Timur
Bunyu
Bontang
Pare-Pare
Vogel Kop
Existing
Future
Gas supply EU
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
189/356
Gas supply EU
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
190/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
191/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
192/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
193/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
194/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
195/356
JAPAN Gas Facilities
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
196/356
Japan gas pipeline supply option
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
197/356
TAGP
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
198/356
Australia gas network
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
199/356
US gas market
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
200/356
US gas network
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
201/356
North America gas supply
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
202/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
203/356
LNG Economics
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
204/356
Widodo W. Purwanto
Departemen Teknik KimiaUniversitas Indonesia
Natural Gas Economics 2012
LNG Technology Chain
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
205/356
LNG Trade History
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
206/356
1964
First plant in Algeria (Arzew), delivery to UK1969 First LNG deliveries to Japan (from Alaska)
1970s Start up of Indonesia (Arun, Bontang), Abu Dhabi,Libya, Brunei projects
1980s Start up of Malaysia, Australia projects
1990s
Start up of Qatargas, Nigeria, Trinidad and RasGasprojects
2000 Start up of Oman LNG project
2006 Australia
2007 Norway
2009
Qatar II ( 7.8 Mtpa)
2009 Rusia
2010 Peru
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
207/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
208/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
209/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
210/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
211/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
212/356
LNG Plant
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
213/356
LNG Plant
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
214/356
LNG Plant
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
215/356
Global LNG Capacity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
216/356
LNG capacity and technology
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
217/356
LNG tech comparison
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
218/356
Floating LNG
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
219/356
World largest LNG exporter
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
220/356
LNG Supply: A plethora of new projects
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
221/356
LNG Terminal
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
222/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
223/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
224/356
Start-up LNG Terminal
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
225/356
LNG Terminal Capacity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
226/356
LNG Terminal
Send-out capacity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
227/356
LNG Fleet and Order
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
228/356
LNG carrier types
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
229/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
230/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
231/356
LNG ship capacity and age
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
232/356
LNG Chain Costs by Liquefaction,Shipping & Regasification
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
233/356
Investment Costs: Site Preparation, Gas Treatment, Liquefaction,Utilities & Ancillaries, LNG Storage & Loading, Other InfrastructureOperating Costs: Personnel Expenses, Maintenance Cost,Consumables, Overheads, Insurance and Taxes, Variable Costs
Investment Costs: Tanker CapacityOperating Costs: Fixed Costs (crew), Maintenence Expenses,Insurance, Overheads, Variable Costs (fuel, consumables, port charges,taxes)
Investment Costs: LNG unloading facilities, LNG Storage, LNGvaporization and sendout, Utilities, InfrastructureOperating Costs: Fixed Costs, Maintenance Expenses, Insurance,Overheads, Variable Costs (power, fuel, consumables)
PEUI -2007
Typical Costs for a project of 8 MTons/year
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
234/356
Cost Element US$ (2003) US$/MMBTU
(Billion)
Gas Production 1.0 - 2.0 0.5 - 1.0
Liquefaction 1.2 - 1.8 0.8 - 1.2
Shipping 1.0 - 2.0 0.5 - 1.0
Regasification 0.5 - 1.0 0.3 - 0.6
Total 3.7 - 6.8 2.1 - 3.8
PEUI -2007
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
235/356
Liquefaction cost
Capital Expenditure LNG plant
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
236/356
100,000 GPD = 160 TPD = 0.05 MTPA
Reducing LNG costs: a trend that is reversing?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
237/356
Source: LNG Focus, 2006
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
238/356
Mid-Scale LNG costs
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
239/356
Source: Linde
Full chain base load LNGcapital cost breakdown
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
240/356
Source: Patel Foster Wheeler
Capex breakdown (Technip-Coplexip)
2 Train plant 45-65%Utilities 8-15%
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
241/356
Offside 20-40%Common 7-10%
Total LNG plant 100%Others 15-30%
Total LNG project 115-130%
Train: common/inlet facilities, impurities removal (acid gas, water,mercury, sulfur), refrigeration/liquefaction, fractionation.
Utilities: power generation, cooling water, other water, steamfuel, air and nitrogen
Offside: LPG storage & loading, condensate storage & loading,loading jetty, flare and liquid blow-down, other fire protection,drainage & waste treatment
Common: site infrastructure, control room, DCS,ESD, telecom, administration& maintenance building
Others: gas pipeline, site preparation, material offloading, residential area, sparepart, movable, training and start-up.
Liquefaction cost component
Plant capacity: 5 mtpa
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
242/356
p y pTotal plant capital cost $ 1.2 billionUtilization rate 90%
Annual cost of capital $ 155 milion
Per Mcf cost of capital $0.72/McfFuel $0.08/Mcf Taxes $0.15/Mcf Operating costs $0.2/Mcf
Total cost of liquefaction $1.15/Mcf
Source: Bob Shively & John Ferrare, 2005
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
243/356
Liquefaction cost componentKapasitas 500 MMscfd
Train 3,85 MTPA
200.000.000 MMBtu/Year
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
244/356
Capex 700 USD/TPA
Capex total 2.692.307.692 USD
Life time 20 Year
Cost of Capital 10,00% %
CRF 0,1175
Capex Annual 316.237.451 USD/YearCapex Cost 1,58 USD/MMBtu
O&M 107.692.308 USD/Year (4% dari capex)
O&M Cost 0,54 USD/MMBtu
Biaya Bahan
Bakar 50 MMscfd (10% feed)
17.750.000 MMBtu/Year4 USD/MMBtu
71.000.000 USD/Year
Fuel Cost 0,355 USD/MMBtu
Liquefaction Cost 2,47 USD/MMBtu
Liquefaction Capital vs. Capacity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
245/356
PEUI -2007
Capital investmentsSmall Scale LNG plant
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
246/356
Small scale LNG infrastructure
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
247/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
248/356
Shipping cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
249/356
Shipping Cost
T k t
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
250/356
Tanker cost
Mid Size (138,000 m3)1993 ~ US$ 320 million/ship
2005 ~ US$ 170 million/shipLarge size (216,000 m3) ~ US$ 210 million
Daily carter rate
US$ 27,000/day
US$ 150,000/day
PEUI -2007
LNG vessel cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
251/356
Fleet utilization and short term charter rates
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
252/356
Shipping costKapasitas 500 MMscfd O&M 21.600.000
USD/ Year
(4%Capex)
200.000.000 MMBtu/Year Portfees/station 80.000 USD
8.538.462 m3 LNG/year port charges 4.793.522 USD/ Year
Kapasitas
Tanker 150 m3 untuk LNG labor 5.301.195 USD/Year
95% Insurance 6 027 907
USD (15% OPEX
total)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
253/356
95% Insurance 6.027.907 total)
Kapasitas Aktual 142,5 m3 Misc 4.018.605
USD (10% OPEX
total)
64.772 Ton LNG OPEX total 41.741.229 USD/ Year
t loading 12 hour OPEX Cost 0,21 USD/MMBtu
t unloading 12 hour Boil off 0,03
(3% actual
capacity)
Kecepatan 18 knot Fuel Mix 0,5
33,34 km/jam 972 ton
Jarak 3564 km 50.523 MMBtu
day/year 350 hari LNG Price 12
USD/MMBtu
(ICP/8)
Waktu
Perjalanan 107 Jam 303.136 USD/Trip
Roundtrip (PP) 238 Jam 27
MMBtu/liter
(Fuel Oil)
9,91 Hari 688.554 Litre (Fuel Oil)
days in port 67,75 hari/Year Fuel Oil Price 1 USD/Liter
Waktu berlayar
/ Year 282,25 Hari 688.554 USD/Trip
28,48 trip/Year Total per Trip 991.690 USD/Trip
Kapasitas
angkut 4.058.882 m3 LNG/kapal/Year Total per year 59.421.125 USD/ Year
Jumlah Kapal 3 FUEL Cost 0,3 USD/MMBtu
Capex 180.000.000 USD/kapal Shipping Cost 0,82 USD/MMBtu
540.000.000 USD
Durasi 20 Year
CoCapital 10%
CRF 0,1175
Shipping cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
254/356
Source: Henry Lee, 2005
Shipping cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
255/356
Characteristics of trips
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
256/356
Typical Delivered cost of LNG
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
257/356
Shipping cost f (distance)
H L
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
258/356
Henry Lee:
US $/mmbtu = (distance + 1650)/16107
distance is round trip in nautical miles
distance is round trip in km
US $/mmbtu = 7 x 10-5 distance + 0.102
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
259/356
Regasification cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
260/356
CAPEX LNG Terminal
Hazira India 2.5 mtpa (330 mmscfd) - US$ 600 million
Sempra 7.5 mtpa (1bcfd) US$ 800 -1000 million
Q l 2 b fd (2009/20 0) j
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
261/356
Exxon-Qatar Petroleum, 2 bcfd, (2009/2010), jetty, 5 x
150,000 m3 full containement, 1.3 billion US$
Ken UK, 1.7 bcfd, 3 x 190,000 m3 full containement, 1
billion US$Fujian/CNOOC, 350 mmscfd, 2 x 160,000 full
containement, 250 mm US$ (2008)
Quentiro, Chile, 400 mmscfd, jetty, 2x 160,000 + 10,000m3 full containement, 775 mm US$ (2010)
Ecolectrica, Puerto rico, jetty, 90 mmscfd, 160,000
double containement, 150 mm US$ (2000)
LNG Regas cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
262/356
Small LNG terminal (dedicated)
(165 m3 - for Power generation) 1000 MW needs 130 mmscfd of gas
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
263/356
Typical Cost Breakdown Regas
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
264/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
265/356
Regasification costKapasitas regas 400 MMscfd
0,01072 Bcmd
140.000.000 MMBtu/Year
Capex 110.000.000 USD/Bcmy
412.720.000 USD
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
266/356
Durasi 20
CoCapital 10,00%
CRF 0,1175
Capex Annual 48.477.936 USD/Year
Capex Cost 0,34 USD/MMBtu
O&M 20.636.000 USD/Year (5% capex)
O&M Cost 0,15 USD/MMBtu
boil off 0,15%
Konsumsi bahan bakar 1,50% % Kapasitas storage
6 MMscfd
2.100.000 MMBtu/year
Fuel Price 12 USD/MMBtu
25.200.000 USD/Year
Fuel Cost 0,18 USD/MMBtu
Regas Cost 0,67 USD/MMBtu
Natural Gas Pipeline Economics
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
267/356
Widodo W. Purwanto
Departemen Teknik KimiaUniversitas Indonesia
Natural Gas Economics 2012
Type of natural gas transportation
How to bring natural gas from the fields to potential gas markets?
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
268/356
Physical transportation : pipeline, LNG, CNG, GTHChemical conversion : GTL, GTC, GTW
How to bring natural gas from the fields to potential gas markets?
GAS
SUPPLY
GAS
MARKETS
Pipeline
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Gas to Liquids (GTL)
Gas to Chemicals (GTC)
Gas to Wire (GTW)
Gas to hydrate (GTH)
Concept map natural gas transportation
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
269/356
Source: Hetland
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
270/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
271/356
The European Gas Pipeline
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
272/356
The most extensive gas pipeline networks
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
273/356
IGU, 2010
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
274/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
275/356
Warner ten Kate et al, IEA, 2013
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
276/356
NATUNA SEA
MALAYSIAKerteh
Kuala Lumpur
The Sumatran Gas Hub
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
277/356
J A V A S E A
J A V A
Jakarta
SouthJambiB PSC Corridor PSC
SUMATRA
Batam
Singapore
Duri 1. Corridor Block to Duri 540 Km 1999
2. Corridor Block to Singapore 530 Km 2003
3. Corridor Block to PLN Jkt 606 Km 2006
------------
1676 Km======
600 Kms
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
278/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
279/356
Source: Baskoro, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
280/356
Source: Baskoro, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
281/356
Nautical mile =1.85 km
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
282/356
Engineering Yardsticks
Gas velocity: 5 15 m/secPressures at consumers: 20-30 bar
Transmission pipeline pressure: 60 bar-100 bar
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
283/356
p p pCompressor: interval of 150-200 kmOnshore pipeline CAPEX: ~20,000 US$/in-km
Annual operating cost of pipeline 0.5 -1.5% of the
total investment costAnnual operating cost of compressor 4-5% ofthe total investment cost
Offshore gas velocity: up to 30 m/secOffshore pipeline pressure: 100-130 barOffshore pipeline CAPEX: ~40,000 US$/in-km
Pipeline cost formula
Cost (in millions US$/mile) = 563,000 +35,600 x DD pipeline diameter in inches
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
284/356
( $/ ) , ,D: pipeline diameter in inches
Cost (in millions US$/km) = 350,000 + 871,000 x d
d: pipeline diameter in meters
Source: Seddon, 2006
Pipeline Cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
285/356
Source: Mohitpour
Steel price
$9002006
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
286/356
Steel Plate Price per Net Ton
$450
$800
$850
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1.000
2003
2004
2005
Pipe material cost
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
287/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
288/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
289/356
Cost ratio
Compressor cost formula
Cost (in millions US$) = 2,970,000 +1,120 x P
P: compressor power in hp
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
290/356
P: compressor power in hp
Cost (in millions US) = 2,970,000 + 1,500 x p
p: compressor power in kW
Source: Seddon, 2006
Rule of thumb: Pressure drop, Power & Fuelconsumption
50 km pipeline, 24 in, 200 PJ/y (500
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
291/356
p p , , J/y (mmscfd) dP=10 bar ~1.8 MW
Fuel consumption on annual basis 31.5
GJ/kW ~ 22.3 mmbtu/hp 50-60 km, fuel consumption 3% of the gas
transmitted
Source: Seddon, 2006
Principal working assumptions forpipeline and LNG cost study
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
292/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
293/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
294/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
295/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
296/356
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara
for the South Sumatra to West Java Phase II Gas Pipeline Project
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
297/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
298/356
Tipikal Cost breakdownpipa gas PGN
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
299/356
Levelized costKapasitas 700
mmscfd (kap.
Troughput)
5
Million Metric Ton Per
Annum (MTPA)
245.000.000MMBTU/Year
258,475 PJ/Year
Tekanan gas 70 Bar
Flowrate gas pipa 10 m3/sKec gas 15 m/s
Diameter 0 92 m
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
300/356
Diameter 0,92 m
36,27inch
Distance 1000 km
Capex 70.000 USD/in km
2.538.553.781USD
Durasi 20
CoCapital 10,00%
CRF 0,1175Capex Annual 298.177.575 USD/Year
Capex pipeline 1,22 USD/MMBTU
Distance Between
Compresion 50 km
Number stasion 20
Power Required/stasion 6,14
MW (Gas Usage &
Value Sheddon hal. 90)
Compresor Price 2.979.210 USD
Compression Capex 59.584.200 USD6.998.738USD/Year
Compressor Cost $ 0,03 USD/MMBTU
O&M $ 129.906.899 USD/Year (5% Capex)
Unit Cost O&M $ 0,53 USD/MMBTU
Transportation Cost 1,78 USD/MMBTU
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
301/356
BPH, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
302/356
BPH, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
303/356
BPH, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
304/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
305/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
306/356
No. Name of Project Loan Condition
1 W. Java Transmission System
financing pipeline project
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
307/356
2 Gas Distribution (Jakarta, Bogor, Medan) I = 12 %, grace period = 5 years, loan period = 15 years
3 Gas Distribution (Surabaya) i = 13 %, grace period = 5 years, loan period = 15 years
4 Grissik - Duri i = 15 %, grace period = 4 years, loan period = 20 years
5 Grissik Batam - Singapore i = 15 %, grace period = 4 years, loan period = 20 years
6 S.Sumatra - W.Java i = 0.95 % and 0.75%, grace period = 10 years, loan period = 40 years
7 W. Java Trans & Distribution Expansion i = %, grace period = years, loan period = years
8 Cirebon - Semarang
9 Semarang - Gresik
10 E. Kalimantan Central Java
$ (MM)D (inc Funding Owner No Name of Project Year L (km
Financing the project: from public to private
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
308/356
1 W. Java Transmission System 1978 200+ 28 120 Pertamina Pertamina
2 Gas Distribution (Jakarta, Bogor, Medan) 1986 34 IBRD PGN
3 Gas Distribution (Surabaya) 1990 86 IBRD PGN
4 Grissik - Duri 1995 544 28 310 ADB, EIB PGN5 Grissik Batam - Singapore 2001 478 28 415 ADB, EIB PGN
6 S.Sumatra - W.Java 2004 520 28, 32 440 JBIC, PGN PGN7 W. Java Trans & Distribution Expansion 2005 120 PGN, IBRD PGN8 Cirebon - Semarang 230 Private Private
9 Semarang - Gresik 250 Private Private10 E. Kalimantan Central Java 1,219 1,600 (est.) Private Private
Source: Bappenas
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
309/356
Natural Gas Price & Tariff
Lecture-2
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
310/356
Widodo W. Purwanto
Departemen Teknik Kimia
Universitas Indonesia
Natural Gas Economics 2012
Outline
Type of natural gas price
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
311/356
Natural gas pricing mechanism
LNG Price
Tariff
There is no World Prices for gas yet
Market maturity In developmentMature
Oil and gas are different commodities
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
312/356
Regional differences
Different outlets
Risks
Regional
No captive market
Market risk
International
Captive markets
Exploration risks
Oil is an internationally traded commodity.. But the isolated regional nature of
gas markets, coupled with heavy government intervention in gas pricing, has
led to wide variations in pricing practices. There is no world gas price.
Jensen, 2011
World Natural gas and LNG Prices
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
313/356
Asian LNG Import Prices
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
314/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
315/356
Source: IGU, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
316/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
317/356
Harga gas bumi dalam rantai nilainya
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
318/356
Source: Weijermars, 2011
Pembentukan harga gas wholesale(border/hub)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
319/356
Source: IGU, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
320/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
321/356
Mekanisme Pricing
Gas on gas competition
Oil price escalation
l l l
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
322/356
Bilateral monopoly
Netback from final product
Regulation on a cost of service basis
Regulation on a social and political basis
Regulation below cost
No pricing
Source: IGU, 2011
World gas price formation, 2007
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
323/356
Source: IGU, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
324/356
Source: IGU, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
325/356
Gas-on-gas competition is the dominant pricingmechanisms in the US and the UK. It means that the gasprice is determined by the interplay of gas supply and
demand over a variety of different periods (daily, weekly,monthly, quarterly, seasonally, annually or longer). Tradingtakes place at physical hubs, e.g. Henry Hub, or notionalhubs such as the NBP in the UK. Trading is likely to besupported by developed futures markets (NYMEX or ICE)and online commodity exchanges (ICE or OCM).
Oil price escalation is the dominant pricing mechanism inContinental Europe and Asia. It means that the gas price iscontractually linked, usually through a base price and an
escalation clause, to the prices of one or more competingfuels, in Europe typically gas oil and/or fuel oil, in Asia typicallycrude oil. Occasionally, coal prices are part of the escalationclause, as are electricity prices. The escalation clause ensuresthat when an escalator value changes, the gas price isadjusted by a fraction of the escalator value change dependingon the so-called pass-through factor.
The gas price under oil price escalation will likely be above the
market-clearing price if oil prices are very high, and below if oilprices are very low. Thus by summer 2008, when oil priceswere in the $120-130/bbl range, gas prices may have beenclose to P2, while at low oil prices they could be around P3. Ifoil prices are in the fuel-switching range, the oil indexed gasprices will presumably be close to P1.
The demand curve is inelastic at high prices and lowprices, where there is little scope for fuel-switching,and elastic in the middle range where demand for gascan change readily depending on relative fuel prices;
The supply curve is identical to the long run marginalcost curve; and
The average cost curve cuts the long run marginalcost curve at its low point, and then the demand curveat a lower price than the competitive market price.
Bilateral monopoly negotiations were the dominant pricingmechanism in interstate gas dealings in the former East
Bloc including the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Central
and Eastern Europe. The gas price was determined for aperiod of time typically one year through bilateralnegotiations at government level. There were often elementsof barter with the buyers paying for portions of their gassupply in transit services or by participating in fielddevelopment and pipeline building projects.The underlying valuation of the gas, the capital goods and
the services that changed hands in the intra-East Bloc gastrade was opaque, with politics playing a major rolealongside economics.
Examples of gas pricing based on bilateral negotiations
Netback from final product means that the price receivedby the gas supplier reflects the price received by the buyerfor his final product. For instance, the price received by thegas supplier from the power sector may be set in relationto, and allowed to fluctuate with, the price of electricity.Netback based pricing is also common where the gas isused as a feedstock for chemical production, such asammonia or methanol, and represents the major variablecost in producing the product.
Under cost of service based regulation the price is
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
326/356
Examples of gas pricing based on bilateral negotiationsmay still be found in countries where one dominantsupplier, e.g., the national oil company, faces one or acouple of dominant buyers, say, the state owned powercompany and maybe 1-2 large industrial companies. Anumber of immature developing country gas markets have
this structure.
determined, or approved, by a regulatory authority, orpossibly a Ministry, so as to cover the cost of service,
including the recovery of investment and a reasonablerate of return, in the same way as pipeline service tariffsare regulated in the US. Normally, cost of service based
prices are published by the regulatory authority.Pakistan provides an example of cost of service basedprices, with the wellhead price being the target.
Prices may also be regulated on an irregular social andpolitical basis reflecting the regulators perceptions ofsocial needs and/or gas supply cost developments, or
possibly as a revenue raising exercise for thegovernment. In all probability the gas company wouldbe state-owned.
Many Non-OECD countries still practice below costregulation, meaning that the gas price is knowingly setbelow the sum of production and transportation costs as aform of state subsidy to the population. Again the gascompany would be state-owned.In some countries where a substantial proportion ofindigenous gas supply comes from oil fields with gas caps
or gas-condensate fields, the marginal cost of producingthis gas may be close to zero and as such it could be soldat a very low wholesale price and still be profitable.
However, to the extent it is sold below the average cost ofproduction and transportation it would still be included inthe regulation below cost category.
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
327/356
Harga gas wellhead, wholesale, retail di AS
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
328/356
Source: Weijermars, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
329/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
330/356
Perbandingan nilai gas bumi
25
30
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
331/356
0
5
10
15
20
LNG - Badak Pipeline - Java Methanol GTL (FT
Diesel)
DME
US
$/MMBtu
Distribution
Processing
Netback
Cost component of pipeline gas
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
332/356
Kondisi Industri Gas Bumi Saat IniSebagai negara produsen gas - dapat memenuhi gas untukkepentingan dalam negeri sekaligus untuk penerimaan negara
dari ekspor gasHarga gas domestik harga subsidi/regulated pricemenyebabkan keengganan pemasok gas memenuhi kebutuhan
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
333/356
menyebabkan keengganan pemasok gas memenuhi kebutuhandalam negeri, yang berakibat kekurangan gas bagi konsumendomestik dan investasi infratsruktur gas tersendat
Renegosiasifixed gas contract untuk beberapa koridor (JambiMerang, ONWJ, Conoco Natuna B., Pagar Dewa..)
Mekanisme pasar gas masih belum jelas
Walupun potensi permintaan gas domestik tinggi, namun hargagas domestik belum memberikan sinyal yang benar bagi
konsumen dan produsen.Belum adanya transparansi cost breakdown dari sisi produsendan konsumen
Harga gas domestik vs. Harga LNG
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
334/356
Source: PGE, 2012
Oil/Gas Price ratio
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
335/356
Rasio harga minyak bumi terhadap
harga gas bumi
12
14
16
18
20
NG US
NG Uni Eropa
LNG Jepang
NG PGN
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
336/356
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Rata-rata rasio harga minyak bumi terhadap gas di:
- US sebesar 8,7 - Uni Eropa sebesar 7,6
- Jepang sebesar 6,2 - PGN berkisar 8-18
Pusat permintaan gas domestik -Jawa dan Sumatra
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
337/356
Source: PGE, 2012
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
338/356
Source: PGE, 2012
Usulan Pengembangan Pasar danHarga Gas Domestik
Dengan adanya Regas LNG dan pipa transmisi
diperlukan pengembangan wholesaleborder/hub (Jawa, Sumatra)
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
339/356
Mengembangkan formula harga gas hub oil
price escalation,..Transparansi cost breakdown dari sisi produsen
dan konsumen termasuk transporter
Harga gas end-user, wholesale + toll fee, margindownstream + tax
Usulan Pengembangan Pasar danHarga Gas Domestik (lanj.)
Perlu inovasi strategi mitigasi kedala-kendala
yang ada dalam pengembangan pasar gasdomestik termasuk pengembangan
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
340/356
domestik termasuk pengembangan
infrastruktur gas (institusi, regulasi,
ekonomi,dll)Mengembangkan hybrid market (central
planed dan Market oriented), Thurber, PES,
2011 sebagai langkah awal pengembanganpasar gas domestik ke depan.
Instrumen Kebijakan dalamRantai Nilai Gas Bumi
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
341/356
Source: Thurber and Chang, 2011
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
342/356
Gas Hub?
Source: PGN and PGE
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
343/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
344/356
LNG trade
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
345/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
346/356
LNG Pricing Formulae in Asia (1)
1988 2004
Prices linked 85% to crude oil
10-15% premium over crude at around $18/bbl
L i d li t hi h il i d
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
347/356
Lower premium declines at higher oil prices and no
premium above $28-$30/bbl
S shaped curve in some contracts
2004+
New indices and price mechanisms to reflect
changing markets?
LNG Pricing Formulae in Asia (2)
Reference Oil Price: JCC Japanese Custom Cleared averageprice1988 2004
Price applies over an agreed range ($11 to $30/bbl), outsidethat range there is an agreement to meet and discuss
Such a pricing basis initially developed with Japanese buyers
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
348/356
Such a pricing basis initially developed with Japanese buyersbut has been adopted by S. Korea and Taiwan
In Japan the basic formula has been modified by adopting anS shaped curve
No S curves in S. Korea and Taiwan contracts
LNG Pricing Formulae in Asia (3)
Most contracts for LNG sold on an ex-ship basis use the
following pricing formula:
P(LNG) = A x P (Crude Oil) + B
where
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
349/356
where
P(LNG) = price of LNG in cents$/MMBtu
P (Crude Oil) =price of crude oil in $/bbl
B = a constant in cents/MMBtu
In many contracts:
A = 14.85
B = 70 to 90 cents
Basic LNG Pricing Formulae in Asia
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
350/356
Asian S Curve Price Formula
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
351/356
LNG Pricing Formulae in AsiaLinkage to crude oil is about 85%
In most contracts the average of Japanese Custom Cleared
(JCC) crude prices are used, but Indonesia uses the averageprice of Indonesian crude exports
Inclusion of constant results in premium over crude oil parity
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
352/356
Inclusion of constant results in premium over crude oil parityof about 10-15% at $18/bbl
Premium erodes as oil price increase and disappears ataround $28-30/bbl
Most price negotiations focus on the constant
The 14.85 factor is used in many contract is not exclusive(especially in FOB contracts)
Tipikal formula harga LNG
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
353/356
Different Tariffication Methods for GasTransportation
Tariffication according to the distance: bookingcapacity along each section of the tariff routeTariffication according to pondered distance
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
354/356
(average distance)
Tariffication Entry-Exit: booking capacity at entry
and exit, without taking into account physical flowsbetween these two points
Tariffication post-stamp: a unique tariff applied forinjection and withdrawal on the overall territory
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
355/356
-
7/25/2019 Eksplorasi Hidrokarbon
356/356