el nino 101 and impacts from recent el nino events chip konrad director of the noaa southeast...
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El Nino La Nina El Nino 101 Occurs every 2-7 years february-quick-look/TRANSCRIPT
El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events
Chip KonradDirector of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Acknowledgement: Jordan McLeod, the new regional climatologist at SERCC
El Nino 101
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/can-we-blame-el-niño
19981983 El Nino
La Nina
El Nino 101
• Occurs every 2-7 yearshttp://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-february-quick-look/
El Nino 101
http://gfdl.noaa.gov/~atw/vgrp/enso/
Typical El Niño Winter Pattern
Image credit: Illinois State Water Survey (with data from NOAA)
El Nino 101
El Niño and the Caribbean
Average temperature (°F) and precipitation (inches) during the dry season (December through April) for 16 observing stations across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Results are stratified by ENSO phase. Graphics provided by NOAA NWS San Juan.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=enso2010
El Nino 101
Event Rank Year Peak ONI (°C)
1 2015/2016 +2.5 (projected)
2 1997/1998 +2.3
3 1982/1983 +2.1
4 1972/1973 +2.0
5 1965/1966 +1.8
6 1957/1958 +1.7
7 1987/1988 +1.6
8 1991/1992 +1.6
9 2009/2010 +1.3
10 2002/2003 +1.3
11 1963/1964 +1.2
12 1968/1969 +1.0
13 1994/1995 +1.0
14 2006/2007 +1.0
Ranking of top El Niño events
(Peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) > +1.0°C)
Data obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Center
1950s-1960s
1970s-1980s
1990s-2000s
Color coded by decades
2010s
El Nino 101
1997-98 Strong El Nino
Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool.
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature
2009-2010 Moderate El Nino
Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool.
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature
Record-breaking winter (DJF) rainfall across Florida and the coastal Carolinas during the 1997/1998 and 2009/2010 El Niño events
Data obtained from xmACIS2 (NOAA Regional Climate Centers)
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature
Winter (DJF) tornado activity by ENSO phase across Florida and remainder of the Southeast region (1954–2014)
Florida
Rest of Southeast (AL, GA, SC, NC, VA)
Data obtained from NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events
ENSO phase # of seasons Tornado count Average Maximum
La Niña 18 359 20 47 (2007/2008)
Neutral 22 322 15 48 (2005/2006)
El Niño 20 186 9 29 (2002/2003)
ENSO phase # of seasons Tornado count Average Maximum
La Niña 18 136 8 21 (1974/1975)
Neutral 22 124 6 20 (1978/1979)
El Niño 20 212 11 46 (1997/1998)
Ranking of top 10 negative AO winters (DJF) since 1950
Rank Year Mean AO (std. dev.)
1 2009/2010 -3.27
2 1976/1977 -2.54
3 1968/1969 -2.18
4 1962/1963 -1.85
5 1969/1970 -1.82
6 1985/1986 -1.71
7 1959/1960 -1.51
8 1965/1966 -1.45
9 2000/2001 -1.29
10 1978/1979 -1.28
Data from NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Winter Weather EventsWinter weather patterns also shaped by other circulation patterns
Example: Arctic Oscillation (AO). Negative AO = cold conditions across SE
Winters with both a Negative AO & El Nino
Courtesy of NOAA NCDChttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/2009-2010-Cold-Season.pdf
Snow depth on January 20th 2010
Impacts of Recent El Nino Events
El Nino and negative AO = More snow, which can extended far to the south