El NinoEl NinoElyse Hultgren, Kristin Kearnes, Tommy Elyse Hultgren, Kristin Kearnes, Tommy

Lawton, Dane KopniskyLawton, Dane Kopnisky

What is El Niño?What is El Niño?

•Definition – A warm current of Definition – A warm current of waterwater

•A disruption of the ocean-A disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having tropical Pacific having important consequences in important consequences in weather around the globe.weather around the globe.

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The Consequences of El The Consequences of El NiñoNiño

• Increased Rainfall across the Increased Rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru southern tier of the US and in Peru causing floodingcausing flooding

• Could cause droughts on the western Could cause droughts on the western coast and Australiacoast and Australia– This leads to brush fires in AustraliaThis leads to brush fires in Australia

• Marine life is reducedMarine life is reduced

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Normal ConditionsNormal Conditions

– Trade winds blow west across the Trade winds blow west across the tropical pacific that pile up warm surface tropical pacific that pile up warm surface water in the west pacific so the sea water in the west pacific so the sea surface is about a half meter higher at surface is about a half meter higher at Indonesia than Ecuador.Indonesia than Ecuador.

– Water is 8 degrees C warmer in the Water is 8 degrees C warmer in the western pacific waters.western pacific waters.

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El Niño ConditionsEl Niño Conditions

– Trade winds are weakened which allows Trade winds are weakened which allows the warmer western pacific waters to the warmer western pacific waters to move east and reach the South American move east and reach the South American coasts which makes the thermocline coasts which makes the thermocline (layer between surface water and deep (layer between surface water and deep water) deeper.water) deeper.

– This makes it so the nutrient rich waters This makes it so the nutrient rich waters on the coasts are depleted by the warmer on the coasts are depleted by the warmer waters because the thermocline is deeper.waters because the thermocline is deeper.

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When it occursWhen it occurs

• Around Christmas time every year on Around Christmas time every year on the coast of Ecuador and Peru that the coast of Ecuador and Peru that lasts about a monthlasts about a month

• Major El Niño's occur every three to Major El Niño's occur every three to seven years and last for a couple seven years and last for a couple monthsmonths

• Some El Niño's may even last for a Some El Niño's may even last for a couple yearscouple years

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The effects of this phenomenon are The effects of this phenomenon are extensive and have an impact on extensive and have an impact on

nations all over the world.nations all over the world.

KKhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/shtml

WEATHER AND CLIMATEWEATHER AND CLIMATE• The first signs of El Nino The first signs of El Nino

are the unusual warming are the unusual warming of the water in the of the water in the Western Pacific Ocean. Western Pacific Ocean.

• The warming is caused The warming is caused by trade winds blowing by trade winds blowing from East to West. from East to West.

• Thunderstorms are a Thunderstorms are a common effect in tropical common effect in tropical regions as a result of El regions as a result of El Nino. For example, Nino. For example, suddenly islands like suddenly islands like Tahiti, normally tropical Tahiti, normally tropical paradises, experience paradises, experience massive storms. massive storms. KK

(Severe Thunderstorm over Strands Beach, Dana Point)http://www.aku-aku.com/html/Local_stock/el-nino_JPG.htm

Clouds and rain Clouds and rain storms associated storms associated with warm ocean with warm ocean waters shift toward waters shift toward the east. the east.

As a result rains As a result rains which would normally which would normally fall over tropical rain fall over tropical rain forest start falling in forest start falling in desert areas causing desert areas causing forest fires and forest fires and drought in the drought in the Western Pacific and Western Pacific and flooding in South flooding in South America. America.

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The earth’s atmosphere The earth’s atmosphere responds to the heating responds to the heating of El Nino by producing of El Nino by producing patterns of high and low patterns of high and low pressure, having a pressure, having a profound impact on profound impact on weather.weather.Temperatures rise in Temperatures rise in western Canada and the western Canada and the upper plains of the U.S., upper plains of the U.S., while the southern U.S. while the southern U.S. experiences colder than experiences colder than normal temperatures normal temperatures

(Flooding in Santa Cruz River)http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/elnino/

(Rainforest fire in Brazil)http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm

• Wetter than normal Wetter than normal conditions tend to conditions tend to occur during the occur during the months of December – months of December – February along February along coastal Ecuador, coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, northwestern Peru, southern Brazil, southern Brazil, central Argentina, and central Argentina, and eastern Africa.eastern Africa.

• Drier than normal Drier than normal conditions are conditions are generally observed generally observed over northern South over northern South America, Central America, Central America, and southern America, and southern Africa.Africa.

• Warmer than normal Warmer than normal conditions occur conditions occur across southeastern across southeastern Asia, southeastern Asia, southeastern Africa, Japan, Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and southern Alaska and western/central western/central Canada, southeastern Canada, southeastern Brazil and Brazil and southeastern southeastern Australia.Australia.

•During the months of June-August, wetter than normal conditions occur in the intermountain regions of the U.S. and over central Chile.•Eastern Australia experiences drier than normal conditions during these months.•Warmer than normal conditions are found along the west coast of South America and across southeastern Brazil.•Cooler than normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the U.S.

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(December-February) (June-August)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysismonitering/ensocycle/elninosfc.html

• Weather and climate sensitive industries such as Weather and climate sensitive industries such as agriculture, construction, energy distribution, and agriculture, construction, energy distribution, and outdoor recreation are directly impacted by El Nino.outdoor recreation are directly impacted by El Nino.

• South American economies are curtailed by the loss of South American economies are curtailed by the loss of fishing and climate effects on crops and people.fishing and climate effects on crops and people.

• In Asia and the western Pacific region, severe droughts In Asia and the western Pacific region, severe droughts occur which starve crops as well as people and the occur which starve crops as well as people and the economy.economy.

• Extreme climate changes occurring in North America Extreme climate changes occurring in North America such as flooding and droughts, bring economic damage such as flooding and droughts, bring economic damage to the United States.to the United States.

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• They have heavy effects on They have heavy effects on farming and result in farming and result in negative consequences for negative consequences for properties and businesses properties and businesses in the U.S. and around the in the U.S. and around the globe.globe.

• El Nino impacts important El Nino impacts important business variables like business variables like sales, revenues, and sales, revenues, and employment in a wide employment in a wide range of climate sensitive range of climate sensitive industries.industries.

• Overall, total U.S. economic Overall, total U.S. economic impacts of the 1997-98 El impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino were estimated at a Nino were estimated at a cost of $25 billion.cost of $25 billion.

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(El Nino tornado damage in Florida)http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm

Questions:Questions:

• 1) Massive thunderstorms can be found in 1) Massive thunderstorms can be found in what types of regions as a result of El what types of regions as a result of El Nino? Nino? KKKK

– A: Tropical RegionsA: Tropical Regions

• 2) What kind of climate sensitive 2) What kind of climate sensitive industries are economically effected by El industries are economically effected by El Nino? Nino? KKKK

– A: Agriculture, construction, energy A: Agriculture, construction, energy distribution, and outdoor recreation. distribution, and outdoor recreation.

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Past Large El Nino’sPast Large El Nino’s

•1941-421941-42

•1957-581957-58

•1965-661965-66

•1972-731972-73

•1982-831982-83

•1986-871986-87

•1991-921991-92

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1982-83 and 1997-19981982-83 and 1997-1998El Nino at its worstEl Nino at its worst

• Those years Those years experienced two of experienced two of the strongest El Nino the strongest El Nino patterns ever. The patterns ever. The dramatic climate dramatic climate and weather and weather changes resulted in, changes resulted in, economic and economic and physical, destruction physical, destruction worldwide.worldwide.

Microsoft Clip ArtTL

1982-1983 El Nino1982-1983 El Nino

http://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/OCEAN_PLANET/HTML/oceanography_el_nino.html

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Economic Cost of 1982-83 El Economic Cost of 1982-83 El NinoNino

• $811,000,000,000$811,000,000,000

• Flooding: Flooding: Bolivia($300,000,000);Bolivia($300,000,000);Peru($350,000,000); Peru($350,000,000); Cuba($170,000,000)Cuba($170,000,000)

• Hurricanes: Hurricanes: Tahiti($50,000,000); Tahiti($50,000,000); Hawaii($250,000,000) Hawaii($250,000,000)

• Drought/Fires: Drought/Fires: Australia($2,500,000,0Australia($2,500,000,000; Southern 00; Southern Africa($1,000,000,000)Africa($1,000,000,000); Southern ; Southern India($160,000,000); India($160,000,000); Philippines($450,000,0Philippines($450,000,000); 00); Indonesia($500,000,00Indonesia($500,000,000); Mexico/Central 0); Mexico/Central America($600,000,000)America($600,000,000)

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Lessons learned from 1982-Lessons learned from 1982-8383• That El Nino event That El Nino event

was unpredictable was unpredictable and stronger than and stronger than ever expectedever expected

• Funding went into El Funding went into El Nino research and Nino research and emphasis was place emphasis was place on better prediction on better prediction and planningand planning

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1997-1998 El Nino1997-1998 El Nino

http://www.primenews.com/elnino.html TL

Weather Impacts 1997-98; Weather Impacts 1997-98; Hurricane SeasonHurricane Season

• 1997 saw an abnormally low amount 1997 saw an abnormally low amount of hurricanes.of hurricanes.

• 7 named storms, with only Danny 7 named storms, with only Danny making landfall in the United Statesmaking landfall in the United States

• Extreme wind shear caused by El Extreme wind shear caused by El Nino was the cause of unfavorable Nino was the cause of unfavorable conditions for storm development. conditions for storm development.

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Winter of January 1998Winter of January 1998• January 5-9, 1998January 5-9, 1998• Strong storm picked up moisture in Gulf of MexicoStrong storm picked up moisture in Gulf of Mexico• Flooding rain throughout Southern and Southeast Flooding rain throughout Southern and Southeast

Coast into the CarolinasCoast into the Carolinas• Major ice storm effected West Virginia, Major ice storm effected West Virginia,

Pennsylvania, New England and CanadaPennsylvania, New England and Canada• 56 Total Deaths from storm56 Total Deaths from storm

http://www.recorder.ca/ice/pole.html

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Flooding February 1998Flooding February 1998

• Major storms came onshore in Major storms came onshore in California, causing massive flooding California, causing massive flooding and erosion.and erosion.

• Many areas received the most Many areas received the most rainfall ever for any single month.rainfall ever for any single month.

• 550 Million in Damage550 Million in Damage

• 17 Deaths17 Deaths

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La NinaLa NinaWhat is La What is La

Nina??Nina??

-A climactic fluctuation -A climactic fluctuation involving the abnormal involving the abnormal cooling of waters off of cooling of waters off of

Peru and EcuadorPeru and Ecuador

-As opposed to El Nino, -As opposed to El Nino, it is unusually it is unusually coldcold

ocean temperatures ocean temperatures around the Equator in around the Equator in

the Pacific that the Pacific that characterize La Ninacharacterize La Nina

El Nino (December 1997)

La Nina (December 2000)

Source: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html EH

Sea Surface Temperatures

What happens during La What happens during La Nina?Nina?• Before La Nina, temperatures of subsurface Before La Nina, temperatures of subsurface

waters in the tropical Pacific are cooler than waters in the tropical Pacific are cooler than normal, and are brought to the surface by normal, and are brought to the surface by atmospheric and oceanic waves moving atmospheric and oceanic waves moving Easterly.Easterly.

• During La Nina, sea-surface temperatures During La Nina, sea-surface temperatures along the Equator can fall by up to 7 degrees along the Equator can fall by up to 7 degrees FF

• Its effects are most clearly seen during the Its effects are most clearly seen during the wintertime (as are El Nino’s)wintertime (as are El Nino’s)

• La Nina usually lasts between 9 and 12 La Nina usually lasts between 9 and 12 months, but some have lasted up to 2 yearsmonths, but some have lasted up to 2 years

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Effects of La NinaEffects of La Nina• In large portions of Central North In large portions of Central North

America:America:– Increased storminess and precipitationIncreased storminess and precipitation– Increased frequency of significant cold-air Increased frequency of significant cold-air

outbreaks (Colder temperatures)outbreaks (Colder temperatures)– Colder than normal wintersColder than normal winters

• Southeastern US:Southeastern US:– Less storminess and precipitationLess storminess and precipitation– Warmer than normal conditionsWarmer than normal conditions– Warmer than normal wintersWarmer than normal winters

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La Nina’s EffectsLa Nina’s Effects

• More snow across Eastern AlaskaMore snow across Eastern Alaska• During La Nina, the jet stream runs from the During La Nina, the jet stream runs from the

central Rockies to the central Great Lakescentral Rockies to the central Great Lakes– Weather during La Nina is more severe further Weather during La Nina is more severe further

North and WestNorth and West– During El Nino, more severe weather is from the During El Nino, more severe weather is from the

northern Gulf of Mexico to northern Florida (where northern Gulf of Mexico to northern Florida (where the jet stream is during it)the jet stream is during it)

• Overall, La Nina’s effects are the opposite of Overall, La Nina’s effects are the opposite of El Nino’sEl Nino’s– i.e. Australian and Indonesian areas are wetter i.e. Australian and Indonesian areas are wetter

than normal (whereas with El Nino, they were very than normal (whereas with El Nino, they were very dry)dry)

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December-February

-Wetter than normal conditions over southern Africa and South America

-Drier than normal conditions over coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and equatorial eastern Africa

-Below normal temperatures over southeastern Africa, southern Alaska, Japan, western/ central Canada, and southeastern Brazil

-Warmer than normal conditions along the US’ Gulf Coast

June-August

-Wetter than normal conditions over southeastern Australia

-Drier than normal conditions over southern Brazil and central Argentina

-Cooler than normal temperatures across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast and northern South America, across the Gulf of Guinea, and portions of central AmericaEH

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/laninasfc.html

Previous La Nina’sPrevious La Nina’s

On average, El Nino and On average, El Nino and La Nina occur every 2-7 La Nina occur every 2-7 yearsyears

-La Nina’s occurred in:

1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995

-Since 1975, La Nina has been only half as frequent as El Nino

1988/1989’s La Nina

-January 15th - February 15th had severe freezing conditions

-Ice thickness in Alaska sizably increased

-When spring came around, ice jams caused severe flooding, and former President George HW Bush declared regions of Alaska eligible for federal disaster relief EH

Fun Facts Fun Facts

• ‘‘El Nino’ means ‘the little boy,’ or ‘Christ child’ in El Nino’ means ‘the little boy,’ or ‘Christ child’ in SpanishSpanish

• El Nino was first recognized by fishermen off the El Nino was first recognized by fishermen off the coast of South Americacoast of South America

• ‘‘La Nina’ means ‘the little girl’ in SpanishLa Nina’ means ‘the little girl’ in Spanish• La Nina is sometimes also called ‘El Viejo,’ anti-El La Nina is sometimes also called ‘El Viejo,’ anti-El

Nino, or ‘a cold event’Nino, or ‘a cold event’• Debate has gone on as to whether La Nina really Debate has gone on as to whether La Nina really

exists; after El Nino’s, temperatures become cooler exists; after El Nino’s, temperatures become cooler again – so the debate is whether the cooling should again – so the debate is whether the cooling should be referred to as La Nina, or simply normalbe referred to as La Nina, or simply normal

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QuestionsQuestions

• 1) What is La Nina? 1) What is La Nina? EHEH

– A: A climactic fluctuation involving the A: A climactic fluctuation involving the abnormal cooling of waters off of Peru and abnormal cooling of waters off of Peru and Ecuador resulting in cold ocean temperatures Ecuador resulting in cold ocean temperatures around the Equator in the Pacific Oceanaround the Equator in the Pacific Ocean

• 2) Overall, how do La Nina’s effects 2) Overall, how do La Nina’s effects compare to those of El Nino’s? compare to those of El Nino’s? EHEH

– A: They pretty much result in opposite effectsA: They pretty much result in opposite effects

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Source: http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/gallery.htm

SOURCES:•http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pacific-02g.html•http://www.angelfire.com/mi/umproject/•http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/nino/elnino.html•http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/shtml•http://www.aku-aku.com/html/Local_stock/el-nino_JPG.htm•http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm •http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysismonitoring/ensocycle/elninosfc.html•http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/elnino/•http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/elnino/elnino.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/elnino/elnino.html•http://nndc.noaa.gov/?http://ols.nndc.noaa.gov:80/plolstore/plsql/http://nndc.noaa.gov/?http://ols.nndc.noaa.gov:80/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00500-PUB-A0001olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00500-PUB-A0001•http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/janstorm/janstorm.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/janstorm/janstorm.html•http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/febstorm/february98storms.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/febstorm/february98storms.html•http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/•http://www.primenews.com/elnino.html•http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/cold.gif•http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/lanina.html•http://www.elnino.noaagov/lanina.html•http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html•http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/gallery.htm•http://www.bartleby.com/65/el/ElNinoSou.html

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