El Nino Rainfall Monitoring Report on October 6, 2015

Situation Overview

Most parts of the country have reported average rainfall over the last two days and into this

morning. The areas that have received rainfall so far include; Kisumu, Kakamega, Homabay,

Busia, Marsabit, Mombasa, Meru, Nyeri, Kericho, and Kisii.

The rains resulted in no major incidents in most parts of the country except for Meru, Garissa

and Homabay as highlighted below:

Meru County

In Meru County, sporadic rainfall has continued to be witnessed over the last few days. The

rains have resulted in the collapse of quarries, the most recent incident being on 1st October

2015, when a quarry collapsed at Kithurine in Meru south that lead to 4 deaths and leaving 1

person injured. The County Government supported by KRCS and local community leaders are

leading a campaign to stop all mining activities in landslide prone areas in view of the increased

risk due to the rainfall being witnessed in the areas.

Garissa County

Flash flooding was witnessed in Bonane and Gurafa, Modagashe Sub-County, Garissa County

on 5th October 2015. The flooding resulted from increased surface run off from parts of Meru

County where heavy rainfall had been witnessed on Sunday (4th October 2015) evening. An

unconfirmed number of households were affected by the flash flooding but no fatalities or

injuries were reported. KRCS Garissa will carry out an assessment in the affected areas to

determine the extent of damage and guide on further action by the Society and other partners.

Homabay County

In Homabay county, heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds were witnessed on Sunday 4th

October 2015. The storms blew off a roof in Misani Primary School in Ndhiwa Sub-County. No

injuries were reported as there were no students in the school at the time.

Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) Response

KRCS is working with both National and County Governments in planning for enhanced rainfall

in various parts of the country. To achieve this, KRCS has supported the County Governments

of Busia, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu, Homabay and Migori Counties in developing contingency

plans.

In Busia and Mombasa Counties, mapping of flood prone areas has been done and evacuation

sites identified in anticipation of enhanced rainfall.

Currently, there is heightened alert and surveillance especially in the Coastal Region where

storms are expected to occur as was forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department

THE WEEK AHEAD

Expected hazard advisories from 5th to 11th October 2015 which might cause minor incidences.

5th October 2015

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall less than 1mm

thus no hazard is associated with forecast.

with relative humidity above 60%

6th October 2015

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall less than 1mm

thus no hazard is associated with forecast.

with relative humidity above 70%

7th October 2015

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall increasing in most

parts with over 10mm.this trend shows on set

of rainy condition. with relative humidity

above 60%

8th October 2015

Storm is expected to hit parts of Kenya

coastal with rainfall increasing in 24 hours

amounting to over 30mm in north coast and

other parts to receive over 50mm. residents

advised to stay away from waterways. Parts

of Mt.kenya regions, Nairobi and south

eastern lowlands(mtito andei ,kibwezi) will

receive atleast 10mm with relative humidity

above 80%

9th October 2015

Storm is expected to hit parts of Kenya

coastal with rainfall increasing in 24 hours

amounting to over 50mm in north coast and

other parts to receive over30mm. residents

advised to stay away from waterways. Parts

of Mt.kenya regions, Nairobi, nyanza and

western Kenya will receive atleast 10mm with

relative humidity above 80%

10th October 2015

Decreased rainfall status will be experienced

thus most parts of Kenya coast and south

eastern lowlands receiving slightly above

10mm with Relative Humidity of over 60%.

No major threat on this forecast

11th October 2015

Decreased rainfall status will be experienced

thus most parts of Kenya coast receiving

slightly above 10mm with Relative Humidity

of over 70%. No major threat on this forecast

N.B: This forecast should be used in

conjunction with the daily (24-hour)

hazard/disaster advisories

Issued by this Department.

KEY OF SCIENTIFIC WORDS USED

Most Places: Between 66% and 100%

Several Places: Between 33% and

66%

Few Places: Between 0 and 33%

rainfall chart key in (mm)

Humidity chart key in

(%)

1. Detailed forecast for the Coastal strip for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015 Current models are indicating likelihood of enhanced rainfall along the coastal strip from the Wednesday 7th to Friday, 9th October 2015 with various parts being pounded by over 20mm of rainfall in day. The detailed forecast for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015) is provided in the Table below.

DATE FORECAST

Tuesday, 6th Oct. 2015

Generally dry conditions over most parts of the coast.

Wednesday, 7th Oct. 2015

A pick up in rainfall activities in the morning with some locations receiving 10mm of rainfall. Heavy rainfall will mainly be offshore.

Thursday, 8th Oct. 2015

Enhancement of rainfall from heavy storms leading to very heavy rainfall (≥ 50mm in 24 hours) being observed over some locations in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, and extreme eastern parts of Tana River counties. The rainfall amounts in the North Coast (Lamu County) will be relatively lower but still there are areas expected to receiver heavy rainfall (≥ 20mm)

Friday, 9th Oct. 2015

Heavy rainfall to persist but with slightly reduced intensities. The heaviest events (≥ 50mm) are expected in South Coast (Kwale and parts of Mombasa).

Saturday, 10th Oct. 2015

General reduction in the heavy rainfall events but persistence in wet conditions with most areas recording rainfall in the range 10 – 20 mm.

Sunday, 11th Oct. 2015

Generally light morning showers over most locations

Monday, 12 Oct. 2015

A pick up in rainfall over the North Coast where some locations are expected to record heavy rainfall (≥ 20mm). Light to moderate rainfall over the other coastal areas.

SOURCE: KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES