el programa "going digital" de la ocde
TRANSCRIPT
Going Digital – Making the Transformation Work for Growth and Wellbeing
31st Digital Economy and Telecommunications SummitSantander, 4 September 2017
Dirk PilatDirectorate for Science, Technology and [email protected]
Outline
1. The Context2. The Going Digital project3. Understanding the Digital Transformation4. Next Steps
1. CONTEXT
A wide range of new digital technologieshave emerged …
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Cloud computing
Blockchain
Artificialintelligence 3D printing
Big data
Internet of Things
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…., that are affecting all parts of the economy
HealthPublic Admin. Retail
TransportationAgriculture
Science & Education Manufacturing
Multi-factor productivity growthTotal economy, percentage change at annual rate
Note: Data for Ireland, Spain and Portugal correspond to the periods 1995-2014 and 2009-2014.Source: OECD Productivity Database, April 2017. Statlink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933477326
The potential productivity benefits of these new technologies are urgently needed ...
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0
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ITA ESP PRT BEL DNK NZL CHE NLD CAN JPN FRA AUT AUS DEU GBR SWE USA FIN IRL KOR
1995-2015 2001-2007 2009-2015
… although today, many firms find it difficultto turn new technology into productivity growth
The productivity gap between the globally most productive firms and other firms has widened
Note: “Frontier firms” is the average labour productivity (value added per worker) of the 100 or 5% globally most productive firms in each two-digit industry. “Non-frontier firms” is the average of all firms, except the 5% globally most productive firms.Source: OECD preliminary results based on Andrews, D., C. Criscuolo and P. Gal (2016), “Mind the Gap: Productivity Divergence between the Global Frontier and Laggard Firms”, OECD Productivity Working Papers, forthcoming; Orbis database of Bureau van Dijk.
OECD Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, by technology, December 2016
Source: OECD, Broadband Portal, www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/oecdbroadbandportal.htm
Spain has made good progress on broadband access, especially mobile …
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1.2.2.OECDMobilebroadbandsubscriptionsper100inhabitants,bytechnology,December2016
Data and voice subscriptions
Data-only subscriptions
Total (where breakdown not available)
Source: OECD, Broadband Portal, www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/oecdbroadbandportal.htm, July 2017
… and is among the top of the OECD on fibre connections, …
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Percentage of fibre connections in total broadband subscriptions, December 2016
The growth of fibre connections, December 2015- 2016
Source: OECD, Broadband Portal, www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/oecdbroadbandportal.htm, July 2017
.. and among the top in the OECD in the growth of fibre connections
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Annual Growth of fibre subscriptions among countries reporting fibre subscriptions, December 2015-2016%
The diffusion of selected ICT tools and activities in enterprises, 2015Percentage of enterprises with ten or more persons employed
11Source: OECD, ICT Database; Eurostat, Information Society Statistics Database and national sources, April 2016.
But the intensity of ICT use in Spanish business still lags in many areas …
Enterprises using cloud computing services, by size, 2016As a percentage of enterprises in each employment size class
Source: OECD, ICT Database; Eurostat, Information Society Statistics Database and national sources, January 2017.
… with small firms lagging, even in technologies well suited to them
Many jobs in Spain will be affected by the digital transformation …
Jobs with high and medium potential for automationPercentage of jobs with 70 % and between 50 % et 70 % of substitutable tasks
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
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101520253035404550
SVK
CZE ITA DEU
AUT
POL
NLD
ENG
/ NIR
Aver
age
USA
ESP
NOR
DNK
CAN IRL
SWE
FRA
JPN
BEL (
Fl) FIN
EST
KOR
Significant change in tasks Automatable
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0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
Typesetter and compositor jobs
Graphic design jobs
… but history suggests new jobs will also emerge, complementary to new technology
Source: Presentation by Professor James Bessen at OECD workshop, 24 April.
Individuals who judge their computer skills to be sufficient if they were to apply for a new job within a year, 2013 (as a percentage of all individuals)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90%
All Individuals Individuals with high formal education Individuals with no or low formal education
Source: OECD Measuring the Digital Economy: A New Perspective, 2014, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933148354.
New skills will be needed, …
… which may not be easy for many workers
Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015), www.oecd.org/skills/piaac/publicdataandanalysis .
The proportion of low performers in literacy and/or numeracy, workers
Few high-skilled workers
Many workers lacking ICT skills
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70% In both literacy and numeracy In literacy only In numeracy only
Individuals using the Internet for sending filled forms via public authorities websites in the past 12 months, by education level, 2015
Source: OECD, ICT Database; Eurostat, Information Society Statistics Database and ITU, World Telecommunication/ICT indicators Database, July 2015; Government at a Glance (2017 forthcoming).
Government itself will also need to be transformed
2. THE OECD’S GOING DIGITAL PROJECT
Digitalisation has been on the OECD’s agenda for some time – e.g. Ministerial Conference in Cancun, June 2016 …
… and is now also firmly on the G20 agenda, with support from the OECD
The OECD launched its Going Digital project at the joint OECD-G20 conference on Key Issues for Digital Transformation in the G20, on 12 January in Berlin.
A background report was prepared by the OECD. It laid the path for the first ever G20 Digital Ministers meeting, that took place in Dusseldorf on 6-7 April.
But we need a more strategic and pro-active approach to digitalisation
• Critical thresholds have been crossed• Shift from an economic focus to socio-economic; all
sectors of the economy are affected• Huge potential• But realisation that digitally induced change will be
disruptive for many workers, firms and sectors.• In many countries, a gap between Technology 4.0, and
Policy 1.0
Background
• The 2016 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting encouraged the development of a horizontal policy strategy on digitalisation.
• The Going Digital project involves 14 core OECD Committees, i.e. the Digital Economy Policy Committee (lead), the Competition Committee, the Committee on Consumer Policy, the Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, the Insurance and Private Pensions Committee, the Committee on Financial Markets, the Committee on Fiscal Affairs, the Committee on Scientific and Technological Policy, the Committee on Statistics and Statistics Policy, the Economic Policy Committee, the Education Policy Committee, the Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Committee, the Public Governance Committee, and the Trade Committee.
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1. Improve our understanding of the digitaltransformation and its impacts on economy and society
2. Provide policymakers with the tools needed to developa pro-active, whole-of-government policy response tohelp their economies prosper in an increasingly digitaland data-driven world.
3. Help overcome the large gap between technologyand policy development, Technology 4.0 – Policy 1.0.
Objectives
Three Areas of Work: 1. Development of an Integrated Policy Framework
Building the Foundations for the Digital Transformation
Making the Digital Transformation Work for the Economy & Society
Effective Use
(Firms)
Policy Coherence and Strategy Development
Digital Government(Governments)
Trust & Acceptance(Firms, People)
Labour Market
Adaptation(People)
Framework Conditions (including MarketOpenness)
Accessible Digital Infrastructures and Services
Innovation & Effects
(Sectors)
Well-being(People)
• Enrich understanding of the digital transformation in specific policy areas, e.g. financial markets, insurance, taxation, etc.
2: In-depth work on the digital transformation in specific areas
3: Cross-cutting work on some of the big policy questions
1. Jobs & Skills:• Characterise skills needs and
demands;• Assess the implication of
automation for jobs and skills;• Identify and (re)think policies
addressing challenges of Going Digital for jobs and skills.
2. Productivity, competition & market openness:
• implications for firms, business dynamics and productivity
• implications for competition, financing, market openness & taxation
• role of framework policies, especially for adoption
3. Well-being: Impacts on • Material conditions, e.g. job
displacement; scalable jobs; choice, consumer surplus, etc.
• Quality of life: health; skills; work-life balance; social connections; environment ; civic engagement; etc.
4. Measurement:• Review current indicators and
frameworks, identify gaps, explore digital sources; develop a measurement roadmap.
• Scope: Data value and international flows; Skills in the digital era; Trust in online environments.
3. ENHANCING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Digitalisation also changes the functioning of the economy, challenging policy …
Policy has difficulty in adjusting to a digital era, for example:• The high speed of change• The changing nature of capital• The growing mobility of value creation• The empowerment of individuals, crowds, SMEs and
regions• And others ….
The high speed of digital transformation, …
Graph showing the time it took different technologies to reacch X amount of users
Challenges legacy policies and slow policy making -speed may promote policy “arbitrage“ strategies
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Smartphones
Internet
Mobilephone
Personalcomputer
Television
Radio
Telephone
Electricity
Source: US Census, Wall Street Journal
Years until used by 25% of US population
… the changing nature of capital, …
Intangibleassets
Servicification
Challenges policies directed at capital, e.g. tax incentives or accounting rules, trade policy (goods vs services)
… the growing mobility of valuecreation, …
Challenges policies that rely on geographical location, e.g. education, corporate and labour tax, trade rules of
origin
… or the empowerment of individuals, crowds, SMEs and regions
Enables entrepreneurship and engagement with crowds, challenges policies that rely on a central point of control
(e.g. media)
4. CONCLUSIONS
• The World (and Spain) is facing a massive economicand social transformation, driven by a wide range ofnew technologies and business models
• This offers many new opportunities for strongerproductivity growth, new jobs, and new solutions to helpaddress global and social challenges.
• But these potential benefits are not automatic and willrequire a comprehensive and pro-active policy response;leadership and vision will be key.
• There is a growing gap between technology (4.0) andpolicy (1.5) - policy will need to move to a digital era –better understanding the changes will help.
• There is much scope for learning across countries.
Key points
1. Ensure the rolling out fibre networks to every citizen and firm2. Foster the scaling of new digital business models and start-up
firms; and ensure sound competition3. Facilitate the diffusion of technology and knowledge across the
economy, notably to SMEs4. Adapt regulatory frameworks to the digital age5. Facilitate digital trade6. Support skills development to ensure nobody is left behind7. Foster digital innovation by investing in the future8. Protect privacy, security and consumers rights9. Leverage digital technologies within government10. Support workers displaced by the digital transformation
Ten policies to benefit from the digital transformation
Thank you
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Contact: [email protected]
Twitter: @OECDinnovationand @PilatSTI
Going Digital website:http://oe.cd/goingdigital