ELECTIONS ON THE

GROUND AND IN THE

AIR

Comparing Perches and Perspectives#SSLBC2012

What’s Up?2

Why am I here?

Everyone else was busy

Excuse to visit campus

Wouldn’t have finished my thesis if it weren’t for Ellen

Follow and have worked in political risk

Helped managed election observation mission in Liberia, November 2011

Currently, working at startup that uses predictive analysis and temporal analytics

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Fields of Reference

Political RiskMultiparty

NegotiationNetwork Analysis

Data Visualization

Social Media

Analytics

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Outline

1. Definitions, Perspectives, and Watching

2. Futures & Forecasting Methodologies

3. Case Study: Egypt

4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter?

5. Temporal Vision

5

WHEN I USE A WORD IT

MEANS JUST WHAT I

CHOOSE IT TO MEAN —

NEITHER MORE NOR

LESS.

Humpty Dumpty in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass

1. Definitions, Perspectives,& Watching

Information

Cultivate

Collect

Curate

Communicate

Four Ways to Manage Info7

Definitions

Fact: evidence used in report

Opinion: biased perspective

Data: quantity, number, sum

Information: relationships of facts

Intelligence: organized information

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Perspective, Parsed

Perch

Static or dynamic

Un/restricted

Point of View

On the ground

On the hill

In the air

Period

Short

Medium

Long

Far

Permanence

Passage

Phased

Frequent

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Engaging Elections

Campaigning

Monitoring

AnalyzingForecasting

Polling

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Primary Actors & Key

Stakeholders

Voters

Parties

Coalitions Influencers

Electoral Commission

Observers

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Central to Elections

Voters Parties

Campaigns

Candidates

SupportersCoalitions

Electoral Commission

Influencers

Interest Groups

Media

Civil SocietyObservers

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Characteristics and Categories

Large, Diverse

Voters

Interest Groups

Media

Civil Society

Dynamic, Polarized

Coalitions

Parties

Candidates

Political Base

Discrete, Limited

Electoral Commission Observers

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IT IS HARD TO MAKE

PREDICTIONS,

ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE

FUTURE.

Yogi Berra

2. Forecasting Methodologies

Phillip K. Dick15

Providential: what will be will be

Conventional: tomorrow will be much like today

Pessimism: decline from past ‘Golden Age’

Discontinuity: the future will be nothing like the present

Optimism: faith in progress / technology cures all

Unknowable: futile to attempt to go beyond the present

Futurist: tempered optimism / the future is rich with possibility resulting from human planning and actionSource Prof. Howard F. DidsburyJr

Seven Attitudes Towards Future16

Types of Political Risk

Governmental Confiscation

Political Uncertainty

Governance Challenges

Discriminatory Regulation

Operating Restrictions

Social Dynamics

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How to Make & Falsify

PredictionsProbability

Impact

Time Range

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IF A MAN WILL BEGIN

WITH CERTAINTIES, HE

SHALL END IN DOUBTS;

BUT IF HE WILL BE

CONTENT TO BEGIN

WITH DOUBTS HE SHALL

END IN CERTAINTIES.

Francis Bacon

3. Case Study: Egypt

Time Window Analysis

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History

Milestones

Past 5 Years

Watersheds

#Jan25

3 Months prior

1 Month following

Parliamentary Elections

Run-upUp to Today

Profile: Historic Milestones

Egyptian Gov’t

Ongoing

Arrests of MB

Members

President

Obama’s

Cairo Speech

As Opposition

to Mubarak,

MB Backed

by ElBaradei

MB Threatens

Disruption of

Elections

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Past 5 Years

3 Months prior

1 Month following

Run-upUp to Today

Watersheds pre-Jan25

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Past 5 Years

3 Months prior to #Jan25

1 Month following #Jan25

Run-upUp to Today

Watersheds post-Jan25

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Past 5 Years

3 Months prior to #Jan25

1 Month following #Jan25

Run-upUp to Today

Evolution: Political Landscape

24Source: Arabist.net

Change in FJP Composition

Creation of FJP & Before

Elections

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After Elections

When to Watch

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Mid-April: Candidacy Registration Period Mid to Late June: anticipated elections

Time-Textured January 2012

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Forecast – 6 Weeks Prior

Actual – 4 Weeks During

Revised – 6 Weeks After

What and How to Watch

Power Sharing

Negotiations with Salafists

Drafting of constitution

Legislation passed

Transitional Justice

Amnesty for generals

Mubarak trial/verdict

Internal Dynamics

Brotherhood Youth

Coordination with FJP

Foreign Relations

Trial of NGO workers

Approval or delay of IMF

loan

East Asian foreign

investment

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ONCE WE GET OUT OF

THE '80S, THE '90S ARE

GONNA MAKE THE '60S

LOOK LIKE THE '50S.

Dennis Hopper in Flashback

4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter?

Seismic Shift in Intelligence

Temporal Indexing of Web Enables Novel Intelligence

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Text Is Loaded with Temporal

Signals

“North Korea apparently began

pursuing a uranium enrichment

program in 1996 at the latest”

...In June, officials said the network

encryption was operational

“2012 is the year when China will export

more chemicals according to this source”

“ Dr Sarkar says the new facility will

be operational by March 2014...”

Drought and malnutrition hinder next spring’s

expansion plans in Kabul...

“...opposition organizers

plan to meet on Thursday

to protest...”

Unstructured text has analytic & predictive power.

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Using Big Data for Prediction32

Opportunities Challenges

New Tools: Electionista

web app for monitoring elections over Twitter across 110 different countries in 58 languages

Tweets are categorized geographically and cached so that users can scroll back

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New Tools: WaPo Modifiable Model

Uses 3 variables:

% change in GDP

per capita from Q1

to Q3

Average Approval in

June, according to

Gallup

1 incumbent party

candidate is sitting

president, 0 if notSOURCES: Seth Hill, postdoctoral associate at Yale University; John Sides, associate professor at George Washington University;

Lynn Vavreck, associate professor at UCLA; GRAPHIC: Jeremy Bowers, Emily Chow and Ezra Klein - The Washington Post.

Published April 24, 2012.

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New Tools: Google Portal35

New Tools: Google Portal36

New Tools: Yahoo Clues

How people search

Find most popular

search terms

Compare trends

between search

terms

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New Tools: RF & Temporal

Analysis

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Sentiment analysis

Temporal network analysis

Search through time

Temporal source scoring

Further Research for Twitter

Data Sentiment analysis of

political tweets

Automatic detection of propaganda and disinformation

Automatic detection of sock puppets

Credibility checking

Basic research on Twitter demographics and automatic profiling of users with regards to demographic attributes

Basic research on user participation and self-selection bias

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DISCOVERY CONSISTS

OF SEEING WHAT

EVERYBODY HAS SEEN

AND THINKING WHAT

NOBODY HAS THOUGHT.

Albert Szent-Gyorgyi

5. Temporal Vision

Temporal Vision

Hindsight

• Reflect & Learn

• Staring in Rear-View Mirror

Insight

• Observe & Respond

• Climb Ladder Against Wrong Wall

Foresight

• Predict & Prepare

• Nobody is Wrong About Future

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Insight from Big Data

Watch (signal)

Have expectations about what is being watched (shift)

Know how is obscured (blindspot)

Identify out-of-the-ordinary happenings (outlier)

Conceive of fast-moving, far-reaching events (flashpoints)

Be able to correlate them with other interesting observations (pattern)

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Thank You!

E: munish@recordedfuture.com

T: @whypurifly @politicalrisk

L: linkd.in/munish

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NOBODY IS WRONG

ABOUT THE FUTURE AND

EVERYBODY IS WRONG

ABOUT THE PAST.

Munish Puri