electoral college strategy for 2008 dirksen congressional center august 1, 2007 thomas f. schaller...
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Electoral College Strategyfor 2008
Dirksen Congressional CenterAugust 1, 2007
Thomas F. SchallerUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore County
Author, Whistling Past Dixie
Electoral College Trends• You just lived through the two most stable presidential
elections in American history: Just three states (NH, IA, NM) flipped between 2000 and 2004—the fewest since Washington ran the table back-to-back in 1788 & 1792. George W. Bush’s electoral totals were 271 and 286.
• The map is highly bifurcated: In 1960, an election won by .2% in popular vote, there were 14 “comfortable” statewide wins (10%+), 6 of which were “blowouts” (20%+); by 2000, an election “won” by -.5%, there were 28 comfortable wins, of which 14 were blowouts.
• The Non-Southern calculus is here: Democrats won the popular vote in three of past four elections, and got 270 non-southern electoral votes in ’92 and ’96, and came within one state of doing so in 2000 and 2004.
Electoral College Snapshot, 2004Democratic
14 states183 electors
Competitive12 states
142 electors
Republican25 states
213 electorsCalifornia,
Connecticut, Delaware, District
of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois,
Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts,
New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island,
Vermont and Washington
ColoradoFloridaIowa
MichiganMinnesota
NevadaNew Hampshire
New MexicoOhio
OregonPennsylvania
Wisconsin
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas,
Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas,
Kentucky, Louisiana,
Mississippi, Missouri, Montana,
Nebraska, North Carolina, North
Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota,
Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia,
West Virginia and Wyoming
Swing State Calculus• Solid Republican South and Mountain
West, plus solid Democratic Northeast, makes Midwest & Southwest pivotal
• Swing state income and employment rates have had particularly negative effects among white, working-class Rustbelt voters
• Growth of Hispanic voting-age population, surpassing African Americans in 2002 as nation’s largest minority
• Voter dissatisfaction with Iraq war• Significance of white Catholic vote
Median Income Decline, 2000-2006
Source: Detroit Free Press
States with Double-Digit Hispanic Populations
43.3
34.7 34.6
28.0
22.8
19.1 19.0
16.014.9
14.0
10.6 10.6 10.3
14.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
NM CA TX AZ NV CO FL NY NJ IL CT UT RI US
http://pewresearch.org/databank/keytrends/
White Catholic Vote for President, 1996-2004
48
4543
41
52
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2000 2004
Perc
ent
Democrats Republicans
Simon & Schuster
October 2006
The Non-Southern StrategyMakes sense no matter how you slice it: Ideology: Why would the more liberal and progressive of
the two parties start to rebuild itself in the most conservative region of the country?
Demography: Why would a female-led, multi-racial, union-oriented, urban/inner-suburban, more secular party rebuild itself in the least gender-gapped, most racially-polarized, least unionized, most rural and evangelized region?
History: The Northeast and West outvoted the South from 1860-1932; the Northeast flipped and, along with the South, outvoted the West from 1932-1968; the South flipped and, along with the West, outvoted the Northeast from 1968 to today. The West is due to flip next, recreating the same map the GOP used to dominate politics from 1860-1932.
Numerics: The South has basically cast the same share of electors for 13 decades—between 27 percent and 31 percent.
Regional Share of Electoral Votes, 1880-2000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
South Northeast Midwest Far West
Democratic Presidential Electoral Margins
Inside v. Outside the South, 1972-2004
Year Nominee SouthNon-South
Difference
1972McGover
n-40.6 -18.8 -21.8
1976 Carter +9.4 -0.1 +9.5
1980 Carter -6.9 -10.6 +3.7
1984 Mondale -25.2 -15.9 -9.3
1988 Dukakis -17.4 -4.4 -13.0
1992 Clinton -1.4 +8.1 -9.5
1996 Clinton +0.1 +11.7 -11.6
2000 Gore -10.8 +4.9 -15.6
2004 Kerry -14.4 +2.3 -16.7
All -11.2 -2.0 -9.2Computed by author from data courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org
Countless factors complicate a Democratic revival in the
South:• In the South, the Democratic-advantageous “gender gap” is smallest among whites.
• South is most racially-polarized region, and Democratic-voting black populations are smaller in almost every southern state than they were in 1950.
• As it has been for four generations, the South is the least-unionized region in the country.
• It is the most rural region in America.• The South is the most culturally-conservative
and most religious-evangelized region of the country.
• Southerners don’t take kindly to third-party and insurgent candidates.
How Republicans Keep White House
• Obviously, they could just win the same 31 states and 286 electors again!
• If they lose Florida (27) or Ohio (20), flip one or two Midwestern states (Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin), or maybe Pennsylvania? If they lose some Southwestern states, they’ll need to do both.
• White, culture war and anti-terror voters will be crucial, particularly by suburban women and rural men for Midwest gains; while returning to 2004 levels among Hispanics is key to holding the Southwest.
How Democrats Take White House
If they hold Kerry’s 19 states and 252 electors, there are four routes:
• Single-shot Florida (27)• Single-shot Ohio (20)• Southwest route: Flip two to four among
Arizona (10, least likely), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), or New Mexico (5, most likely)
• The “36th parallel” route: Turn either Virginia (13) + West Virginia (5), or Kentucky (8) + Missouri (11).
Candidate effects• Republicans
– John McCain—locks Arizona, but could create unrest elsewhere because of immigration position
– Rudy Giuliani—Could put some Northeast corridor states into play, including “Metro 3” where Bush gained
– Mitt Romney—Similar but weaker effect in Northeast, Mormonism could jeopardize white evangelical-led states
– Fred Thompson—Secures southern base, effect elsewhere unclear
• Democrats– Hillary Clinton—Default Democrat who holds all
Kerry-won states, but unclear which parts of map she opens up
– Barack Obama—Forget the non-FL South, might have traction in “new West” states
– John Edwards—Could put some Border and Rim South states into play
Electoral College Strategyfor 2008
Dirksen Congressional CenterAugust 1, 2007
Thanks!
Republican Share of White Vote in Presidential Elections, 1976-2004
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Perc
ent
Northeast Midwest South West
Black Population in the South, 1950 v. 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX VA South
Perc
ent
1950 2000
Support for Conservative Values by Region, 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feds ShouldRestrict Abortion
Pro-Death Penalty Allow SchoolPrayer
Oppose Gays inMilitary
Spend Less/Noneon Affirm Action
Perc
ent
South Midwest Interior West
Support for Ross Perot and Ralph Nader in South v. West
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX VA AK AZ CA CO HI ID M
T NV NM UT WA
WY
Perc
ent
Perot 1992 Nader 2000
Top 10 States, by Share of American Indians or
Alaskan NativesState 1990 2003
Alaska 15.6 15.9
New Mexico 8.9 10.0
South Dakota 7.3 8.4
Oklahoma 8.0 8.0
Montana 6.0 6.5
Arizona 5.6 5.3
North Dakota 4.1 4.9
Wyoming 2.1 2.4
Washington 1.7 1.6
Idaho 1.4 1.5
U.S. Census Bureau data.
Asian Americans• Asian Americans were 4.2 percent of the
national population in 2000, and account for a higher-than-average share in nine states…only one of which is southern:– Hawaii (58.0 percent)– California (12.0 percent)– Washington (6.7 percent)– New Jersey (6.2 percent)– New York (6.2 percent)– Nevada (5.6 percent)– Alaska (5.2 percent)– Maryland (4.5 percent)– Virginia (4.3 percent)
Presidential Results, 2004
Democratic Margin among Women
All Whites
Alabama -14 -58
Arkansas -1 -20
Florida -1 -13
Georgia -12 -52
Louisiana -9 -49
Mississippi -19 -79
North Carolina -8 -44
South Carolina -10 -56
Tennessee -13 -29
Texas -26 -52
Virginia 0 -29
United States +3 -11
