ELECTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT POST ELECTION REPORT ON 2015

GOVERNORSHIP AND STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

Prepared by: INEC Electoral Risk Management (ERM) Team

April 12, 2015

IntroductionThe Independent National Electoral Commission is implementing an Electoral Risk Management (ERM) project to support its activities during the 2015 national and state elections using the Electoral Risk Management Tool (ERMTool). In the run-up to the elections, the ERM team identified and analysed a series of risk factors and indicators covering the pre-election period. The subsequent risk alerts were shared with the INEC leadership to help improve their situational awareness in the lead-up to election.

For the April 11 Governorship and State Assembly elections, the ERM team identified a number of election day and post election factors to analyse during and immediately after the election.

Methodology and data sources:The ERM team established a desk in the INEC situation room on April 11. The team was composed of seven INEC staff members and was supervised by the Chief Technical Advisor to the INEC Chairman. The team received additional support from the International IDEA programme officer as well as the IFES Electoral Security Expert. The team developed risk alerts by collecting data from ERM desk officers, INEC supervisors in the field, the EOSC desk in the situation room, the INEC Citizens Call Centre in the situation room as well as through online sources such as the media and social media (for incidents of electoral violence).

To source data in the field, particularly on election day, the ERM team used the ERM desk officers and INEC supervisors. Questionnaires were prepared using an online format and the ERM team collected data by telephone, monitoring online sources and coordinating with other desks in the Situation Room. Any information obtained via social media platforms to identify incidents of election-related violence were only included once the information had been confirmed or verified by an official or secondary source in the media or from official statements.

It should be noted that data obtained from the field is not necessarily comprehensive, but represents the information available at the time of data collection.

Data for this report was sourced between 12pm - 6pm.

Numerical values and risk values:The values in each of the maps were developed in the election day operational plan developed prior to election day. Respondents were asked to estimate the number of polling units affected by a certain problem and were given three possible responses:- None/few = low risk- Some = medium risk- Many = high risk.

POST-ELECTION ALERTS

NUMBER OF PUS ACROSS STATES THAT ARE STILL VOTING AS AT 2PM Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (SOME)

HIGH (MANY)

LOW (FEW)

COLLATION CENTRES ACROSS STATES THAT HAVE NOT FINISHED COLLATION AS AT 6PM

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (SOME)

HIGH (MANY)

LOW (FEW)

MAP SHOWING MAIN REASONS COLLATION CENTRES HAVE NOT FINISHED COLLATION

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM; PUs STILL COUNTING

HIGH; DISRUPTION OF COLLATION PROCESS

LOW; PUs STILL VOTING

RESCHEDULING OF ELECTIONS OCCURING ACROSS THE STATE Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (VOTING FINISHED IN 80-99% OF PUS)

HIGH (VOTING FINISHED IN 0-79% OF PUS)

LOW (VOTING FINISHED IN ALL PUS)

REPORTS OF ATTACKS ON COLLATION CENTERS Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (SOME)

HIGH (MANY)

LOW (FEW)

REPORTS OF ATTACKS ON INEC OFFICIALS Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (SOME)

HIGH (MANY)

LOW (FEW)

ARE THERE ANY REPORTS OF THEFT OR DESTRUCTION OF ELECTION MATERIAL

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM; SOME

HIGH; MANY

LOW; FEW

MAP SHOWING MATERIALS SNATCHED MATERIALS Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

Data source: INEC, ERM STATE DESK OFFICERS Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 12 APRIL 2015

RISK LEVEL

MEDIUM (RESULT SHEETS)

LOW (BALLOT BOXES)

INCIDENTS RELATED TO ELECTION DAY AND THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD

RISK MAPS ON ELECTION RELATED VIOLENT INCIDENTS

The Risk Maps in the following pages show results of data gathered on election related violence that occurred during the gubernatorial election periods.

No colour code is given to the map. The maps highlight number of incidents that occurred in the States as well as type of incidents. Description boxes on the map provide more information on the incidents.

Maps show data recorded for election day 11th of March/

Election Day Violent Incidents as at 4:30pm, April 11th

Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers, EOSC Desk officers, Media, Online reportsh7

- Number of Incidents

Key:

#

3

3

13

6

31

2

1

4

11

6

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Total number of incidents as at 4:30pm:52 incidents

Reports of violent incidents targeted at INEC, Polling units, officials, voters and materials

There have been many reports of violence and shooting at several LGAs in Rivers. One police man and several others reported dead

Election Day Violent Incidents April 11th

Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers, EOSC Desk officers, Media, Online reports

- Number of Incidents

Key:

#

3

3

15

9

412

4

6

6

32

6

2

9

2

1

3

3

Total number of incidents recorded:114 incidents

Reports of violent incidents targeted at INEC, Polling units, officials, voters and materials

1

2

6

1

2

1

1

5

1

1

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS