electric aircraft 2025: a supercomputer on...
TRANSCRIPT
ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT 2025:A Supercomputer on wings
RENÉ NARDI, Ph.D.
This work is based on Robert Goodrich’s“Technology Forecast” classes. June 5th, 2018
2
UFMG Team
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Work Objective Market Definition
Competitive Environment- Mature Market
Customer Experience - Convergence of Technologies
New Possibilities- Breakthrough Technologies 3
Mission definition
4
General Aviation: Is defined as all aviation, other than military and
scheduled commercial airlines. (GAMA 2017 Annual Report)
It includes over 445.000 aircraft flying worldwide, ranging
from 2-seat training aircraft to intercontinental business jets.
Piston Engine Aircraft is the segment of interest.
Trip Distance: 500 km Trip Time: 2:00 Hours
A BSao Jose Belo
Horizonte
Cirrus SR 22 T
Cessna 172 S
Piper P 28 Archer
Diamond DA-40
Tecnan LSA
Best-Selling Piston Engine Aircraft
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Work Objective Market Definition
Competitive Environment- Mature Market
Customer Experience - Convergence of Technologies
New Possibilities- Breakthrough Technologies 6
Absence of significant innovation
Cessna 172 - 1955 Piper P 28 - 1960Beech Bonanza - 1947
Cirrus - 1995 Diamond - 1997Tecnan - 1993
First Generation
Second Generation
Mature and Declining Market
➢ Slowing or ➢ no growth in demand
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➢ Lower rate of ➢ new customers
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Textron –Cessna+
Beechcraft+Lycoming
TecnanAvic – Cirrus+Continental
Wanfeng - Diamond
Imprimis - Piper
Mergers and Acquisitions
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Work Objective Market Definition
Competitive Environment- Mature Market
Customer Experience - Convergence of Technologies
New Possibilities- Breakthrough Technologies10
Unprecedent innovation on the horizon
Electrical Propulsion: counter-rotating props
and electro-fan,
Power Supply: the case of specific energy
Configurations: morphology
Aerodynamics: morphing wing .
Use of external information: 5G network.
Man machine interface: You tell the system:
“ I want to climb”. The rest is with the aircraft
Lean Manufacturing: doing more with less.
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Two powerplants, two concepts
Continental IO-550 Siemens SP-260
Power: 230 kW Power: 260 kW
Weight: 200 kg Weight: 50 kg
Power to Weight: 1 kW/kg Power to Weight: 5 kW/kg
Hundreds of moving parts Half a dozen moving parts
ICE EM
Propeler
Electrical Propulsion:
Electro Fan
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Counter Rotating Props.
Counter-Rotating Props Electro-Fan
Power Supply
Efficiency: Specific Energy
Piston Engine: 25% AVGAS: 3,125 Wh / kg
Electrical motor : 95% Lithium-Ion battery: 235 Wh / kg
Specific Energy ratio: 13
2018 Lithium-Metal batteries rated at 450 Wh/kg ??.Specific Energy ratio : ~ 7
Storage Specific Energy
AVGAS : 12,500 Wh / kg
Lithium-Ion battery: 250 Wh / kg
Specific Energy Ratio: 50
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How Energy Density affects the hardware
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220 Wh/kg ED = 15
450 Wh/kg ED = 7
Technology Life Cycle
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Note: Gompertz curve
Ener
gy D
ensi
ty(W
h/
kg )
Enter in Service Date(Year)
Before 2025 it would seem we are on track for production
of 1 kWh / kg specific energy batteries
Specific Energy ratio ~ 3.3
1,000
2008 2015 2018 2025
117250
450
High Level Requirements
Four-Five occupants
Aircraft interior as comfortable as luxury cars
Fully electrical powered aircraft = 1 kWh/kg power supply
Single or multi engine = 5 kW/kg engine(s)
Distance between two secondary airports : 500 km (270 NM)
Max Range = 800 km (435 NM)
Top Speed = 350 km/h (190 kts)
A B
What if ????
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Cirrus – Internal Combustion Engine
Range: 1,050 km
Fuel load: 155 kg
Engine: 200 kg
Fuel+Engine: 355 kg
2025 Electrical Plane
Range: 800 km
Battery (1kWh/kg): 550 kg
Engine (5 kW/kg): 50 kg
Bat+Engine: 600 kg
MTOW: 1.550 kg
MTOW: 1.800 kg
Morphology
Configuration
Single Engine
1 x 220 kW
Twin Engine
2 x 110 kW = 220 kW
Multi Engine
4 x 55 kW = 220 kW
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Work Objective Market Definition
Competitive Environment- Mature Market
Customer Experience - Convergence of Technologies
New Possibilities- Breakthrough Technologies21
A confluence of technological advances.
Autonomy: Flight envelope protection, automated take-off and landing; autonomous ground maneuvers
Electrical Propulsion: Superconducting Electric Motors and Wiring, for Lower weight and higher efficiency
Higher Energy Density Power Supply: Lithium sulfur and lithium seawater batteries, fuel cells, super-capacitors and other forms of power supply, delivering north of 2 kWh/kg.
New materials : Carbon-nanotubes could reduce the airframe weigh by half.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Work Objective Market Definition
Competitive Environment- Mature Market
Customer Experience - Convergence of Technologies
New Possibilities- Breakthrough Technologies
What could possibly go wrong ?23
Alpha Electro
2 Pax – 85 kW
Cirrus S-22
4 Pax – 225 kWBeech Baron
6 Pax – 2 x 225 kW
Beech King Air C-90
8 Pax – 2 x 450 kW
Piper M-600
6 Pax – 450 kW
Now
0.25 kWh/kg
2025
1 kWh/kg
2030
2 kWh/kg
2035+
3 kWh/kg
Horizon of Innovation
20??
3+ kWh/kg
Alternative to physical trips - Telepresence
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Vertical take off and landing
Leonardo AW-609
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Airbus Vahana is an
autonomous electric-
powered, VTOL aircraft with
multiple propellers mounted
on fore and aft tilting wings.
