electric commercial vehicle market
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Analysis of the North American and European Electric
Commercial Vehicle Market
Sandeep Kar
Global Program Manager, Commercial Vehicle Research
Vishnu Muralidharan
Senior Research Analyst
With Special Guest
Jonathan M. Randall
Director, Sales & Marketing
Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation
June 16, 2010
22
1950s Urbanization
2000s Suburbanization
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
� Hybrid/electric LCVs deliver peak efficiency and cost benefits in intra-city
areas.
�HCVs, long-haul vehicles, and inter-modal transportation centers support
hub-and-spoke logistics infrastructure.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the
urban sprawl
Ring Road Motorway, Living
Areas growing
outside the ring
road as seen in London
In the Developed World: Increasing Trend of De-Urbanization - Polarization of Commercial Vehicle Classes and Rising Demand for Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles
Source: Frost & Sullivan
33
Smart Cities - Replacing “GREEN” with “SMART”
These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ Mobility of the future
44
Basic
Small
High Medium
MAV & SUV
Van
Others
Low Medium
0
2
4
6
8
10
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Volume Share in 2009
Vehicle Purchase Cost Index for a CSO
Low
Medium
High
More space and comfort. Ideal for neighborhood
residential
Brand image for business customers
Ideal of city driving
Bubble Size: 2009 Carsharing Vehicles Volumes
Market for Carsharing: Market Share of Carsharing Fleet Segments (Europe), 2009
531
3,470
2009 2016
Vans in Carsharing Fleet (EU)
• Vansharing is a growing trend within carsharing, catering to business goods and household transportation.
• Mobility of goods for urban delivery are successfully partnered within Vansharing (Examples in Turin, Bologna and London)
• Vansharing encompasses the same benefits offered to carsharing such as parking areas, monetary support as the vans always belong to the same carsharing organisations (CSO)
Smart Cities Will Feature Smart Companies Offering Smart Commercial Vehicle Mobility Options
Vansharing is a niche marketMobility Car Sharing Mercedes
Vito
Streetcar VW Transporter
CarCityClub FiatDoblò
5M3A1-18
Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: 1.5 Tonnes Payload in Return-to-Depot
Applications Driving First Wave of Penetration
GCW / GVW 1*
(ton)
Load
Capacity
(ton) Typical Application
Pure Electric
Attractiveness
3.5 1.5 Urban distribution
7.5 4 Urban distribution
12 7.2 Urban distribution
18 11 Inter Urban
distribution
26 17 Long distance
40 25 Long distance
Best Fit for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Depot-based urban delivery fleets cover known routes (typically under 100 miles) and they return to base every night where they can be recharged
Without Government funds EV do not have a future, as initial cost is very high
6
End-user Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of
Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles as Solutions
Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies
(N=109)
59%
17%
5%
5%
6%
17%
19%
20%
9%
6%
6%
6%
6%
12%
18%
22%
10%
10%
8%
8%
5%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fuel Efficiency
Reliability
Reduced Maintenance Requirement
Longer Lifecycle
Attractive Lifecycle Costs
Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions
Residual Value
Reduce Idling
Lower Weight Penalty
Low Level Emissions
Acces to Powertrain Support Infrastructure
#1 ranking #2 ranking #3 ranking
Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart.
Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most
important to your fleet from the following list below?
Hybrid /Electric Commercial
Vehicles- Offer Solutions But Pose Challenges Too!!
Solutions
Fuel Efficiency, Reduced
Maintenance, Low
Emissions, Reduce Idling,
Residual Value
Challenges
Reliability, Lifecycle Costs,
Effectiveness Under All
Operating Conditions,
Weight Penalty
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Advancements in battery technology will
determine widespread acceptance of electric vehicles in commercial sector as return on
investment is a key decision factor
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Electric Vehicles Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles (Europe), 2009-2016
Performance
Battery
Motor
Infrastructure Fast Charging
Permanent Magnets
In-Wheel Motors
Driving distance / Charge up to 90 kms
Charge time 6 ~ 8 hours
Zebra (Sodium Nickel Chloride)
Lead Acid Batteries
2009 2015 ~ 2017
On-Board Charging
~ 200 kms
Battery Swapping
2011 ~ 2013
Lithium Ion
~ 300 kms
~ 1 hour < 15 minutes
Battery Capacity up to 16 kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh and more
Ultra capacitors
8
EU and NA Electric CV Market: Battery Price Reduction Key for Volume Growth
Jury is Out on the Optimal Li-ion
Technology for Sustainable Growth
one thing is certain…But the Future
is Li-ion…Pricing Trends Shows
South-bound Slide
9
List of Major Electric Light Commercial Vehicles in Europe: Rapid Proliferation of OEMs
in both Sub and Plus 1 Ton Categories
European electric-LCV market mostly consists of conversions today
The sub 1 ton category payload consists mainly of regional manufacturers, new entrants such as Tata or Mahindra could compete in this sector with their low cost platform capabilities
10
List of Major Electric Light and Medium Commercial Vehicles: Ford has the advantage of
being an early entrant in the North American LCV market.
2010 expectedn2000*150
Freightliner Custom Chassis
(MT-45 walk in van chassis)
�nn7384150Smith Electric(Based on Avia D75 )
2011 expectedn
Passenger version of Transit Connect
Ford(Tourneo Connect)
2012 expectedn1500*100*Daimler
(Sprinter Electric)
2011 expectedn2041100*Boulder Electric
�n2000*65 ~ 75Electrorides(Based on Isuzu N series)
2010 expectedn2000*100Modec - Navistar
2010 expectednn2000*115
EVI(Based on Freightliner
Chassis)
2012 expectedn700*100*Fiat / Chrysler
(Fiat Doblo)
2010 expectedn750*80Ford
(Transit Connect)
Market StatusClass
2-3
Vehicle Weight Class
Class 4
Class 5
Payload(kg)
Range (miles)Manufacturer
Note: Where ever applicable payloads are taken from medium wheelbase panel van / box van body style *Estimated Figures � Available in market currently
11
European Electric LCV Market: Production Forecast – OEMs Keen to Learn from Early
Adopters’ Experience, 2013-2016 Expected to Emerge as Period of Rapid Proliferation
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unit S
hip
ments
(T
housand)
Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative
Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: Unit Shipment Forecasts for Electric LCV (Europe), 2009-2016
•The European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market is
expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivan scenario) with a total of 165,201 units sold in 2016
at a CAGR of 110%
•Supermarket, parcel delivery, local municipals are likely be
the first adopters of these e-LCV.
•The above forecasts includes only car derived vans, Vans and Light Trucks that have a GVW of 3.5* tonnes
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Ford
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: OEM Model timeline for e-LCV (Europe), 2009
Daimler
e-LCV Model Timeline
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Transit
Connect
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Sprinter
e-LCV Model Timeline
Vito
Renault
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Kangoo
12
North American Electric MCV Market: Class 4, seem very attractive for electrification
as intra city logistics distribution application perfectly suit electric vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unit S
hip
ments
(T
housand)
Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative
North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Unit
Shipment Forecasts for Electric MCV (2009 ~ 2016)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
•The North American Electric Medium Commercial Vehicle Market is
expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivanscenario) with a total of 26,635 units sold in 2016 at a CAGR of 154%
•The above forecasts includes only Class 4,5 & 6 vehicles comprising
mainly of utility and logistics and delivery vehicles. The NA market is
likely to see a large share of e-MCV as most of the vehicles in this
class are best suited for electrification with their deployment in urban
distribution
Boulder Electric
Freightliner
North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: OEM Market
Share for e-MCV (2009)
Navistar
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
x
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Boulder
van
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Mt-45 chassis
13
Since EV is going to be leasedtelematics can be bundled as standard
product and included in lease plan (hidden)
EV will resemble commercial vehicle modelwhere OEMs and fleet owners will use
RVD / prognostics to better manage vehicles
Services like state of charge, bookingcharging station requires new telematics
through connectivity – critical services
Electricity usage needs to be monitoredand EV drivers need to be billed – telematics
is going to be instrumental
Telematics is still an option and the high
cost of systems and services are transferred
to end consumer in open manner
Remote vehicle diagnostics including
elements like remote supervision and Pro-active maintanence are still niche
Real time services require connectivity
and conventional users are not ready to pay
for such services as they see little value
Low degree of applicability of real-time 2 way
communication for billing and payments
Impact of New Business Models like Leasing and
Rentals
Need for Diagnostics for
Better Maintenance
Enabling Real Time Financial Transactions
Need for New Types of Services
Conventional Vehicle Electric VehicleKey Factors
Overall FitLow High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Overall Fit of Telematics and Connectivity Within Electric Vehicles is Driven by Solid Use Cases Largely Absent for Conventional Vehicles
14
Three studies were conducted simultaneously for both Europe and North America, providing a holistic view of Customers Requirements from EV CVs
Fleet Drivers Fleet Managers• Driving Habits (including distance
travelled, number of trips per day,
parking location, parking duration, weight
carried etc)
• The influence that drivers have in the
purchase of their fleet vehicle and their
attitudes and needs in relation to EVs
• Key decision makers in the choice of
their business fleet vehicles
• Understanding of the factors they
used to choose fleet vehicles and their
views and attitudes towards EVs
• Forecast EV uptake within businesses
and analysis of key elements such as
price, range and charging sensitivity
Fleet Drivers & Fleet Managers – Businesses of Focus:Building & Maintenance Public Sector Postal / Courier Car Rental Business Delivery Utility & Telecoms
Consumers
• Driving habits, priorities
for new vehicle purchase,
interest in EVs, and
response to Business
Models
European Study
1982 interviews, over 50% in
London, Berlin, Paris & Milan European Study248 Interviews: 50%
Passenger Vehicles, 25%
Small LCVs, 25% Large
LCVs
European Study
95 Fleet ManagersNorth American Study
1769 interviews, equal split
between Northeast, Midwest,
South and West regions.
North American Study – in progress
153 interviewsNorth American Study – in progress
80 Fleet Managers
15
Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Fleet Profiles and Interest in Electric Vehicles in
Europe – Government Fleets and Public Fleets Showing Highest Degree of Interest in Electric
Sector
16
Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Summary of LCV Customer Profiles United Kingdom –Customers Willing to Bear Additional 10-15% Price Premium to Obtain Electric LCVs.
LCV Fleet Customers(Interviewed for Consumer Study)
Current Fleet Size�% of EV’s in Fleet
Customer Brand preference
for e-LCVsInputs on Business Model
Vehicle Spec. Requirement
TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles�<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)
�e-LCV= ~30-60
Business Delivery Services
Government
Government
Business Delivery Services
Postal & Courier Services
Utility
Weight Requirements
Normal Load carried is around 760-860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter
TOTAL: ~320 vehicles�e-LCV= 2%
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mmLength : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10% more
than standard diesel
version
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
TOTAL: ~700 vehicles�e-LCV= 2.8%
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10%-15%
more than standard diesel
versionFord Transit
TOTAL: 12 vehicles�e-LCV= 2 Vehicles
• Ready to spend ~15% more
than standard diesel
version
Capacity and load carrying
capacity is critical.
TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers
is required
• Likely to shift towards H2
Fuel cell vehicle
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
TOTAL: ~3,000 vehiclesCapacity and weight requirements
Passenger Cars = min 4
seats, 4 door
CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes
Essential to buy from a
leading brandNA
NA
LCV Fleet Customers(Interviewed for Consumer Study)
Current Fleet Size�% of EV’s in Fleet
Customer Brand preference
for e-LCVsInputs on Business Model
Vehicle Spec. Requirement
TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles�<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)
�e-LCV= ~30-60
Business Delivery Services
Government
Government
Business Delivery Services
Postal & Courier Services
Utility
Weight Requirements
Normal Load carried is around 760-860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter
TOTAL: ~320 vehicles�e-LCV= 2%
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mmLength : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10% more
than standard diesel
version
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
TOTAL: ~700 vehicles�e-LCV= 2.8%
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10%-15%
more than standard diesel
versionFord Transit
TOTAL: 12 vehicles�e-LCV= 2 Vehicles
• Ready to spend ~15% more
than standard diesel
version
Capacity and load carrying
capacity is critical.
TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers
is required
• Likely to shift towards H2
Fuel cell vehicle
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
TOTAL: ~3,000 vehiclesCapacity and weight requirements
Passenger Cars = min 4
seats, 4 door
CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes
Essential to buy from a
leading brandNA
NA
17
39%
14%
0% 4%
63%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Basic purchase
price
Cost of
ownership
across service
life of vehicle
Cost per mile
driven
Resale value Other
Consumer Analysis: U.S. Light Vehicle Fleet Market: “Cost of Ownership Across Service
Life of a Vehicle” is the primary basis for comparing vehicles
39%
Perc
en
tag
e o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
With respect to costs, how
do you normally calculate and compare vehicles?
Within how many years would you expect to recover the purchase/lease premium
of an EV from savings in operating costs?
• Based on 80 interviews with fleet
managers.• Other indicates all other financial
models that fleet managers may be using; Further information on these models is not available.
• Percentages may not add to 100 since they have been rounded off.
4.3
4.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Mean
Median
Number of Years
• Based on 80 interviews with
fleet managers.
• Based on interviews with 80 fleet managers
18
Yes
47%
No
53%
All Respondents
Question 34. When purchasing your current fleet did you consider and EV- LCV Fleet Managers
Building and
Maintenance
3%
Business
Delivery
Services
16%
Government
24%
Postal and
Courier
19%
Taxi or
private hire
19%
Utility or
Telecoms
19%Building and
Maintenance
31%
Business
Delivery
Services
19%
Government
11%
Postal and
Courier
14%
Taxi or
private hire
6%
Utility or
Telecoms
19%
� From the sample of LCV Fleet
Managers who said they had
considered an EV in their fleet- it is
the Government and the Utility & Telecoms sectors that have been
the most responsive to EVs
� It can be seen that the Building &
Maintenance industry have been
the most resistant to choosing EVs
as part of their fleet
Consumer Analysis: About half of the LCV managers interviewed have already considered EVs
as part of their fleet. With further models tailored to fleets, this number will increase.
* Based on 68 Fleet Manager interviews (those who have LCV vehicles n their fleet)
19
In the End…………………………..It is All About the Box!!!!!
20
Electric Technology
21
FCCC is the leading chassis manufacturer of alt-fuel products, offering the widest array in all markets in which it operates
Compressed Natural Gas:
• Production since Mid-nineties
• Over 3,000 in service
• Current Program to replace Cummins B5.9G Engine for future product offering
FCCC: Walk-In Van Hybrid – Alternate Fuels History
Hybrid Electric:
• Introduction in 2001 with joint development project with FedEx, Eaton, and Environmental Defense
• Over 600 currently operating in revenue producing service and recently surpassed the 5,000,000 mile milestone
• Released new features including: Low-Profile Transmission, Parking Pawl, Engine Idle-Off, Auxiliary Power Generators, and E-PTO.
Hydraulic Hybrid:
• Development of Advanced Engine Off hydraulic hybrid technology
• Joint development project with Parker Hannifin.
• Initial field and Dynamometer testing complete to validate 70% - 90% increase in fuel economy and customer technology acceptance.
• Initial orders received from several national fleets, including numerous orders through the Clean Cities initiative.
• Start of Production Q1 2011
22
• Powered by Enova’s 120 kW Plug-In Electric Drive System Technology and Tesla Lithium-Ion 55.5kWh Batteries (3 Packs) (Battery pack same as Daimler Smart Car program)
• Driving Range 100-150 miles (vehicle duty cycle /application dependant)
• Supports driver comfort and safety features such as AC, heating, ABS braking, and power steering
• 6 to 8 hours for a full charge with 220-volt Single Phase System from zero state of charge
● Vehicle tailored for applications with a daily route of 100+ miles per day in a urban delivery vocation.
● Continuing work with suppliers to lower costs, improving the ROI.
●Current energy costs with current diesel fuel prices can realize a $15,000 / year savings
•$0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas walk-in van
•Target ROI of 3-4 years
Electric vehicle development plans include new body features to add to aerodynamic – composite body to provide a complete vehicle to the customer.
FCCC: Walk-In Van Electric Vehicle
23
• External drivers like CO2 legislation, regulations by mega cities and customer requirements promote the topic of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs).
• Today the market potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is not yet assessable but could amount to significant volumes.
• Today, the major markets for battery electric trucks and vans are Europe and NAFTA. In Asia low activities are observable. China is expected to become an important market in the future as the government is strongly pushing the topic.
• The BEV market is a new, fragmented, fast growing market with many small niche players. A real consolidation of the market has not yet taken place.
• Battery electric trucks and vans cover nearly all short-distance applications
(daily mileage <125 Miles).
• Vehicle performances are considered acceptable despite 2-3 times higher
pricing compared to diesel motels.
• The battery technology is the most important driver for performances and
pricing.
Market
Overview
Technology
Status
FCCC’s Perspective
24
• Small companies dominate the market, also entering cooperation with
conventional OEMs.
• Most players are system integrators. Some non-conventional OEMs
produce their own base vehicles.
• A few of the key players in the market have already entered partnerships
with conventional OEMs.
• New suppliers are entering the market. Nearly all suppliers are non-
typical automotive suppliers with no global presence.
• There is no consolidation of the BEV suppliers but price pressure and
technology advancement will change the situation in the future.
BEV
OEMs
BEV
Suppliers
FCCC’s Perspective
25
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For Additional Information
Johanna Haynes
Corporate Communications
Automotive & Transportation
(210) 247-3870
Craig HaysSales ManagerAutomotive & [email protected]
Sandeep KarGlobal Program ManagerAutomotive & [email protected]