electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving eu emission targets

Electric renewable technologies -Potential for achieving long term EU energy targets

in residential dwellings

March 2014

Krystyna Dawson

2Excellence in Market Intelligence

Krystyna Dawson

Senior Manager, BSRIA

2


Methodology assumptions

3

And is based on following assumptions:

• Calculations take into account total energy consumption of the household (not only related to the applied system). Heat load for new and existing dwellings and electricity consumption vary by country.

• Current level of financial support and Feed-in-tariffs is applied.

• Gas condensing boiler: primary efficiency 92%

• Micro CHP system: primary efficiency 90%. Average electricity production: 3000kWh per year. 50% of generated electricity is used on site.

• Electric Heat Pump: A/W HP COP 2.9 - 3.5 in existing dwelling / COP 3.9 - 4.5 in new dwelling

• PV system: around 3kWp in all countries but Germany where larger system is more common (7kWp). 35% of electricity produced is for own consumption.

• SO FC: overall efficiency 95% (thermal efficiency 60%, electric efficiency 35%)• PEM FC: overall efficiency 90% (thermal efficiency 53%, electric efficiency 37%)

• Energy and end user prices based on the first half of 2013.

Analysis has taken following products into consideration:

• Gas condensing boiler (as a base technology to be enhanced or replaced by renewable products), Heat Pumps, mico CHP, PV (called established technologies),Fuel cells, intelligent controls (called emerging technologies)

Has been carried out in: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and UK


Main EU heating markets - background overview

Climatic condition(average temperature)

Share of renewables in final energy consumption

Standard CO2 emission factor

(for consumed electricity)

Gas price

0.023t CO2 /MWhe

0.624t CO2 /MWhe

0.483t CO2 /MWhe

0.440t CO2 /MWhe

France Italy Spain PolandGermany UK Sweden

0.056t CO2 /MWhe

Electricity price

€ 0.059 / kWh

€ 0.14 / kWh

€ 0.061/ kWh

€ 0.25 / kWh

€ 0.068 / kWh

€ 0.20 / kWh

€ 0.041 / kWh

€ 0.15 / kWh

€ 0.121 / kWh

€ 0.21 / kWh

€ 0.047 / kWh

€ 0.15 / kWh

€ 0.057 / kWh

€ 0.19 / kWh

1.191tCO2 /MWhe

0.543t CO2 /MWhe

2010:7.9%

2020: 23%

2010:12.2%

2020: 18 %

2010:3.3%

2020: 15%

2010:10%

2020: 17%

2010:11.3%

2020: 20%

2010:7.5%

2020: 15%

2010:35.9%

2020: 49%

Between:

-3 - 7.5°C

Between

8.5 - 11°C

Between

11 - 19°C

Between

11 - 15°CBetween

7 - 10°C

Between

5 - 10°CBetween

14 - 19°C

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_France.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Italy.svg


Summary of findings

5

• Electric technologies with the highest potential to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions:

- Heat Pumps, Intelligent controls, PV, Fuel cells.

• Electric technologies offering the best savings to the end user (based on operating cost): - PV installed with a heat pump (in countries where FiT are available)

• Electric technologies representing the best investment to the end user (based on lifetime cost):

- PV and only in countries providing generous FiT can currently compete with gas condensing boilers in terms of life time cost. High initial investment reduces

efficiency advantages in all other cases.

• Electric technologies eligible for continuous long term financial support: - PV in Germany, France, UK- Heat pumps in Sweden

• Market development:- highly dependent on consistent and continuous financial support - under increasing influence of energy prices

In comparison to the high efficiency gas condensing boiler


Technologies with the highest potential to achieve EU energy targets

Existing dwellings:

Electric Heat Pump

6

Intelligent controls

Fuel Cell

New dwellings:

Electric Heat Pump


Photovoltaic

http://www.chaffoteaux.fr/des-solutions-produits-et-systemes/energies-renouvelables/chaudieres-hybrides/talia-green-hybrid.html



Existing dwellings

7


Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country

8

Existing dwellings

Gas cond boiler (GCB)

Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

UK

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Poland

Sweden

Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0

Heat Pumps & combination of

HP and PV system is most

effective

kg CO2e / year


CO2 emission savings - closer lookestablished technologies

9

Heat pump Heat pump & PV system

Current standard CO2 emission factor

for consummed electricty

Poland

Germany / UK

Italy / Spain

France / Sweden

0.624 / 0.543t CO2 /MWhe

0.056 / 0.023t CO2 /MWhe

1.191tCO2 /MWhe

0.483 / 0.440t CO2 /MWhe

Increased CO2 emissions

Savings of CO2 emissions against stand alone gas condensing boiler:

High savings(50%)

Low savings(13% – 38%)

Medium savings(47% - 23%)

Low savings(6% - 17%)

Medium savings(30% - 24%)

High savings(90% - 96%)

Very low savings(2% - 1%)

PV system provides additional:

Existing dwellings



-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Micro CHP

Electric Heat Pump

PV+GCB

PV+ HP

10

CO2 savings – long term prospectestablished technologies

Heat pumps are most effective

% savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country

Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized

grid future

Existing dwellings


UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Heat pump (HP)

HP+HEMS+Int.Controls

SOFC


11

Existing dwellings

Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies by country - FC / Intelligent controls

kg CO2e / yearFuel cells are very

effective in countries with higher CO2 emission

factors.

HEMS and Intelligent controls added to HP are most effective in

countries with heavy CO2 electricity.

No FC in Sweden


Recommended technologies

12

Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years):

Heat pumps• Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization

process of the grid;• Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency;• R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart

grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid.

Intelligent controls• Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps

• Will add to the reduction of energy demand.

• Fuel cells • Ideal replacement of GCB in countries with higher CO2 emission factor;• Good alternative if heat pump cannot be installed. • More flexible electricty generator as PV system; can be part of the smart grid in the future.

Existing dwellings


Annual operating cost for established technologies by country

13

€uroExisting

dwellings



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

UKGermanyFranceItalySpainPolandSweden


Impact on operating cost:

• Energy prices• Financial support:


Savings in Operating Cost – performanceestablished technologies

14

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Micro CHP

Electric Heat Pump

PV+GCB

PV+ HP

Existing dwellings

% savings in operating cost against GCB by technology, by country(over 20 years)

• High electricity prices are keeping operating cost high for Heat Pumps.

• Support by FiT proves to be very effective.

15Excellence in Market Intelligence 15

Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Heat pump (HP)


SOFC


• Intelligent controls reduce operating cost and provide competitive advantage in dwellings with Heat Pumps.

• Thanks to its electric efficiency, operating cost of a Fuel Cell is well below the level of gas condensing boiler, providing FiT (calculated at mCHP level) are available.

Existing dwellings

€uro / year


Conclusions on operating cost potential

Fuel cells –

need further trials to prove their efficiency.

16

Heat Pumps -

need Feed-in-tariff support to provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler.

Intelligent controls –

need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings

Existing dwellings


Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country

17

€uro / year



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


Micro CHP not sold in Poland

hence value = 0

Existing dwellings



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Heat pump (HP)


SOFC


Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country

• Fuel Cell is currently bearing extremly high investment cost and showing competitive level of lifetime cost only with high electricity price and decent FiT (Germany).

€uro / year


New dwellings

19


Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country

20

kg CO2e

New dwellings


Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

UK

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Poland

Sweden


Heat Pumps & a combination of

HP and PV system is most

effective


CO2 savings – long term prospectestablished technologies

% savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country(over 20 years) Addition of a PV

system is effective in countries with high

CO2 conversion factor

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Micro CHPElectric Heat PumpPV+GCBPV+ HP

Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized

grid future

New dwellings


Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent controls) by country

kg CO2e

HP combined with HEMS and Intelligent

controls bring best savings in countries

with lower CO2 conversion factor..


1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


Heat pump (HP)


PEM Fc

No FC in Sweden

New dwellings

Fuel cells are effective in countries with high CO2

conversion factor (Germany, Poland).


Recommended technologies

23

Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years):

Heat pumps• Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization

process of the grid;• Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency;• R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart

grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid.

Intelligent controls• Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps

• Will add to the reduction of energy demand.

• Photovoltaic• Reduce CO2 emissions• In dwellings with no gas connection the only way of own electricty generation;• Combined with storage solutions they can be part of the smart grid in the future.

New dwellings


Annual operating cost for established technologies by country

24

€uro

New dwellings


Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200




Savings in operating cost over 20 years – established technologies

25

Savings in operating cost (over 20 years) when GCB is replaced or combined with electric renewable system

UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Micro CHP

Electric Heat Pump

PV+GCB

PV+ HP

FiT have biggest impact on operating cost for PV and micro CHP systems.

No FiT for HP in new dwellings.

New dwellings


Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country

€uro

UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Heat pump (HP)


PEM Fc

• Operating cost of a Fuel Cell is below the level of gas condensing boiler even when FiT is not available (Italy, Spain, Poland).

• Intelligent controls reduce operating cost to the higher extent than in existing dwellings.

New dwellings


Conclusions on operating cost potential

Photovoltaics

need storage battery to develop in order to achieve its full potential.

27

Heat Pumps -

provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler even without FiT.

Disadvantaged by FiT available for PV and micro CHP

Intelligent controls –

need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings

New dwellings


Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country

28

€uro

New dwellings



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

UK

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Poland

Sweden

Micro CHP not sold in Poland

hence value = 0

• High end user price, lack of financial support for heat pump and high electricity cost make HP less competitive than gas cond. boiler.


€uro

Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country

• Fuel Cell is currently bearing very high investment cost and due to lower heat load producing less electricity. Both result in lifetime cost not competitive with HP and GCB.


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Heat pump (HP)


PEM Fc


Summary

Offer high CO2 savings in new and existing dwellings on the long term.

30


Fuel Cell

Photovoltaic

Heat pumps

Their market adoption is highly dependent on:

Feed-in-tariffs Energy prices

Heat loadProduct efficiency



Thank you

Contact:

Krystyna Dawson

Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836

Email: [email protected]

electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving eu emission targets

Technology

electric efficiency

t co2 mwhe electricity

thermal efficiency

primary efficiency

overall efficiency

electric technologies

electric heat pump

efficiency advantages