electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for new zealand? presentation to the...
TRANSCRIPT
Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New
Zealand?
Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference
Doug CloverPhD Candidate
Environmental StudiesVictoria University of Wellington
Transport’s contribution to AGW
Source: Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, et al. (2007)
Source: Ministry of Economic Development, 2007
Source: Ministry for the Environment, 2006
The future of oil?
Source: theoildrum.com
EVs - Road
EVs – Road 2
EVs – Mass transit
Comparative vehicle efficiency
Source: Simpson, 2005
Well to Wheel efficiency and GHG emissions
Source: Simpson, 2005
Comparative energy density of petrol and Li ion battery
Comparison based on the Tesla Roadster
Study questions
• What impact will the increased use of EVs for land transport in New Zealand have on GHG emissions?
• What impact would EVs have on fossil fuel usage?• What impact would the increased use of EVs have
on electricity demand and the functioning of the electricity system? – what effect (if any) would this increased use have on the
attainment of the Government’s 90% renewable 2025 target?
Evaluating technological transitions
• How do new technologies arise and what impacts will they have on society?
Three generic approaches• Point source – new technology arises from an
innovative event then develops through stages• Transformational – technology innovations have an
impact on society and vice versa.• Replacement –new technologies compete with old
based on price and performanceGeels (2004)
Proposed Model
Technology and sustainability• Environmental sustainability criteria (OECD 2001)
– Use renewable resources efficiently and not exceed long term rate of natural regeneration
– Use non-renewable resources efficiently and limit their use so they can be substituted by renewable resources
– Limit discharges to be within the assimilative capacity of ecosystems– Avoid actions that have an irreversible effect on the environment
• Will EVs result in an incremental technological change or a technology transition?
“a transition denotes a long-term change in an encompassing system that serves a basic societal function (e.g. food production and consumption, mobility, energy supply and use, communication, etc.).” Elzen (2005)